Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD | January 13, 2025
Momentum
– Daily (D1) momentum is currently compressing and overlapping, indicating an overextended bullish move.
– This condition suggests that price may still continue higher, however the momentum is clearly weakening, and a reversal can occur at any time.
– H4 momentum is preparing to move into the oversold zone, therefore in the near term we may see a short-term bullish rebound lasting several H4 candles.
– H1 momentum has already reversed to the upside, which supports the possibility of a short-term bullish move over the next few H1 candles.
Wave Structure (Elliott Wave)
Daily (D1)
– Yesterday’s daily candle closed above the previous high at 4549, however D1 momentum remains in the overbought zone.
– Although momentum compression suggests the bullish move may extend, the risk of reversal remains high.
– Previous wave-count scenarios have not been fully invalidated, while the new wave count has not yet received strong confirmation.
– For this reason, on the D1 timeframe we continue to observe and wait for clearer confirmation.
H4 Timeframe
– Price is currently trading near the target zone at 4616.
– H4 momentum is approaching the oversold area and showing signs of a potential bullish reversal.
– At this stage, monitoring H4 momentum is critical. We will focus on structural breaks that align with momentum reversals to confirm the next directional move.
– In addition, we can trade along the short-term bullish H4 momentum until a clear break in structure occurs, forming lower highs and lower lows, accompanied by a confirmed H4 momentum reversal. At that point, the probability of a trend reversal will increase.
H1 Timeframe
– I have drawn a temporary price channel for the ABC wave structure (blue).
– Price is currently trading within this channel and is confluent with the 4600 resistance zone.
– In this scenario, we should wait for a clear candle close above 4600 before looking for buy opportunities.
– If both H4 and H1 momentum move into the overbought zone while price remains trapped below 4600, we will look for sell opportunities.
– The 4520 area becomes a potential short-term target, and this zone is also a potential scalp buy area if price reaction confirms.
Trading Plan
– Wait for confirmation before executing sell setups, as outlined above.
– Watch for price reaction at high-liquidity zones if price pulls back toward 4520.
Buy Zone: 4522 – 4520
Stop Loss: 4500
TP1: 4549
TP2: 4600
X-indicator
MCX 1 Week Time Frame 📌 MCX Current Market Snapshot
Current Price: ~₹2,360 – ₹2,370 per share (approx live market price)
52‑Week Range: ₹881 – ₹2,380+
📊 Weekly Technical Levels (Pivot‑Based)
These levels come from the most recent pivot calculations for the weekly timeframe.
Weekly Resistance
R3: ~₹2,458.67
R2: ~₹2,398.33
R1: ~₹2,294.67
Weekly Pivot (Central Reference):
Pivot: ~₹2,234.33
Weekly Support
S1: ~₹2,130.67
S2: ~₹2,070.33
S3: ~₹1,966.67
📌 Interpretation
Trend bias above the pivot (~₹2,234) — bullish weekly bias as long as price stays above this.
Immediate resistance band: ~₹2,294‑₹2,398 — watch for weekly closes above to confirm momentum.
Strong weekly breakout trigger: above ₹2,398‑₹2,458 on closing basis can open extended upside.
Key support zone: ~₹2,130‑₹2,070 — weekly closes below this can indicate deeper pullback risk toward ~₹1,966.
📈 How to Use These Weekly Levels
Bullish scenario
Weekly close above the pivot zone (~₹2,234) and hold above R1 can lead to tests of R2/R3.
Breakouts beyond ₹2,398 with volume increase strengthen upward momentum.
Bearish scenario
Weekly close below ₹2,130 suggests sellers scaling up and possible move toward S2/S3.
Watch for rejection signals (long wicks, bearish candles) near upper resistances.
XAUUSD Technical analysis - Bull Trend Intact, Momentum CoolingGold remains in a strong higher-timeframe uptrend, trading above the 20/50/100/200 EMAs, confirming sustained bullish structure. Price is consolidating just below the key supply and prior high zone around **4,635–4,640**, signaling digestion after the recent impulsive rally rather than trend reversal.
On the **1H chart**, bullish structure is preserved with higher highs and higher lows. However, **RSI divergence** is visible, showing waning upside momentum, while **Stochastic RSI** is rolling over from overbought territory—suggesting a short-term pullback or range consolidation is likely.
**VWAP and intraday support** sit near **4,610–4,620**, which is a critical demand zone. As long as price holds above this area, dips are likely to attract buyers. A clean break and acceptance above **4,640** could trigger the next leg higher toward **4,680–4,700**.
**Key Levels**
* **Resistance:** 4,635 – 4,640 → 4,680 – 4,700
* **Support:** 4,620 → 4,588 → 4,550
**Bias:**
Medium-term bullish | Short-term neutral to mildly corrective
Buy-the-dip structure remains valid while above 4,600.
HINDCOPPER Week Time Frame 📈 Current Price (Approximate)
~₹555–₹562 per share (live intraday range) — price has recently bounced and remains elevated near short‑term highs.
🎯 1‑Week Timeframe Levels (Short‑Term View)
🟢 Resistance (Upside)
These are key zones where the stock might face selling pressure this week:
1. R1: ~₹568–₹572 — first major resistance above current levels.
2. R2: ~₹585–₹588 — next technical resistance if price sustains above near term.
3. R3: ~₹595–₹600+ — a higher breakout zone (psychological/technical barrier).
🔹 A sustained weekly close above ~₹568–₹572 would improve bullish momentum and open room toward ₹585–₹600+.
🔴 Support (Downside)
These are key floors where buyers may step in on a pullback:
1. S1: ~₹531–₹532 — immediate near‑term support from pivot and prior consolidation bands.
2. S2: ~₹523–₹525 — secondary support if short‑term pullback deepens.
3. S3: ~₹511–₹514 — stronger support area beyond typical weekly pullbacks.
🔹 A weekly close below ~₹523–₹525 risks extending short‑term selling toward ₹511–₹514.
📝 Interpretation for the Coming Week
Bullish scenario:
✅ If price trades and closes above ~₹568–₹572 → watch breakout toward ₹585–₹600+
Neutral/Range scenario:
➡ Price may consolidate between ~₹531 and ₹568 if neither strong breakout nor breakdown emerges.
Bearish scenario:
❌ A weekly downside close below ~₹523–₹525 may accelerate pullbacks toward ₹511–₹514
groww incredible trade groww buy@163
sl @160 target @175
📈 Trade Description – GROWW (VCP Setup #1)
GROWW is forming a textbook Volatility Contraction Pattern after a strong prior up-move.
Price is holding above key moving averages and volatility is shrinking with each pullback, indicating institutional accumulation.
A high-volume breakout above the contraction high can trigger a fresh momentum leg.
Bias: Bullish
Strategy: Buy on breakout with volume confirmation
Risk: Low (tight stop below last contraction low)
BSE 1 Week View📊 Current approximate price: around ₹2,800–₹2,830 on NSE at latest close.
📈 Weekly Time-Frame Key Levels
🔥 Resistance Levels (Upside Zones)
Immediate weekly resistance: ~₹2,700–₹2,710 — first hurdle above current price on weekly candles.
Next resistance: ~₹2,750–₹2,800 zone — if weekly closes above ₹2,700 area, bulls target this.
Higher breakout area: ~₹2,850–₹2,900 — next range of selling interest above the prior highs.
💡 So weekly up move usually needs a weekly candle close above ~₹2,700–₹2,710 to extend gains.
📉 Support Levels (Downside Zones)
First support: ~₹2,620–₹2,630 — short-term weekly support zone.
Lower support: ~₹2,490 — next zone if price loses the above support.
Strong support / base area: ~₹2,380–₹2,340 — deeper weekly support below ~₹2,490.
➡️ If price closes below ~₹2,620 on weekly, risk increases toward ₹2,490 and ₹2,380 supports.
📊 Weekly Trading Interpretation
Bullish Case (if Weekly Holds/Closes Above):
Above ₹2,700–₹2,710 weekly → potential squeeze toward ₹2,750–₹2,800 then ₹2,850–₹2,900+.
Bearish Case (if Weekly Breaks Below):
Weekly close below ₹2,620 opens downside toward ₹2,490 then ₹2,380–₹2,340.
Neutral/Range:
Between ₹2,620 – ₹2,700, expect choppy sideways movement.
F&O Trading (Futures and Options Trading): A Comprehensive GuideUnderstanding F&O Trading
F&O trading is part of the derivatives market, where the value of contracts is derived from an underlying asset. The underlying asset can be stocks, stock indices (like NIFTY or BANK NIFTY), commodities, currencies, or interest rates. Unlike cash market trading, where investors buy or sell actual shares, F&O trading involves contracts that derive their value from price movements of these assets.
The two main instruments in this segment are Futures and Options, each with distinct characteristics and risk profiles.
Futures Trading Explained
A futures contract is a legally binding agreement between two parties to buy or sell an underlying asset at a predetermined price on a specified future date. In futures trading, both the buyer and seller are obligated to fulfill the contract at expiry unless they exit the position earlier.
Futures are widely used by traders to speculate on price direction. If a trader expects the price of a stock or index to rise, they take a long futures position. If they expect a fall, they take a short futures position. One of the defining features of futures trading is leverage, where traders need to pay only a margin (a fraction of the total contract value) to control a large position.
While leverage increases profit potential, it equally amplifies losses. A small unfavorable movement in price can result in significant losses, making risk management critical.
Options Trading Explained
An options contract gives the buyer the right but not the obligation to buy or sell the underlying asset at a specific price (called the strike price) before or on a specific date (expiry). The seller (or writer) of the option, however, has an obligation to fulfill the contract if the buyer exercises the option.
There are two main types of options:
Call Options: Give the right to buy the asset.
Put Options: Give the right to sell the asset.
Options buyers pay a premium, which is the maximum loss they can incur. This limited-risk feature makes options attractive to beginners. On the other hand, option sellers earn the premium but face potentially unlimited risk, especially in naked option selling.
Options trading allows traders to profit not only from price direction but also from factors like time decay (theta), volatility (vega), and price sensitivity (delta).
Key Differences Between Futures and Options
Futures contracts involve obligation for both parties, while options involve a right for the buyer and obligation for the seller. Futures have linear profit and loss, meaning gains and losses move directly with price changes. Options have non-linear payoffs, allowing for complex strategies such as hedging, income generation, and volatility trading.
Why Traders Use F&O Trading
One of the primary reasons for F&O trading is hedging. Investors use futures and options to protect their portfolios from adverse market movements. For example, an investor holding a large equity portfolio may buy index put options to hedge against a market crash.
Another major use is speculation. Traders attempt to profit from short-term price movements using leverage. Since derivatives require lower capital compared to the cash market, traders can take larger positions.
F&O trading also supports arbitrage opportunities, where price differences between the cash and derivatives markets can be exploited for low-risk returns.
Leverage and Margin in F&O Trading
Leverage is both an advantage and a risk in F&O trading. Traders are required to maintain initial margin and maintenance margin with their brokers. If the market moves against their position, they may receive a margin call, requiring them to add funds.
Poor understanding of margin requirements often leads to forced position closures and heavy losses, especially during volatile market conditions.
Risks Involved in F&O Trading
F&O trading carries significant risk, particularly for inexperienced traders. The major risks include:
High volatility risk, leading to sudden losses
Leverage risk, magnifying losses beyond expectations
Time decay, especially harmful for option buyers
Unlimited loss potential for option sellers
Emotional and psychological pressure, leading to poor decision-making
Many retail traders lose money in F&O trading due to overtrading, lack of strategy, and inadequate risk management.
Risk Management in F&O Trading
Successful F&O trading relies heavily on risk management. Traders must define position size, use stop-loss orders, and avoid risking more than a small percentage of capital on a single trade. Hedged strategies, such as spreads and straddles, help limit losses.
Maintaining discipline, following a trading plan, and avoiding revenge trading are equally important.
Role of Strategy in F&O Trading
F&O trading is not about prediction alone but about probability and strategy. Common futures strategies include trend following and breakout trading. Options strategies range from simple ones like buying calls or puts to advanced strategies such as iron condors, butterflies, calendar spreads, and straddles.
The choice of strategy depends on market conditions—whether the market is trending, range-bound, or highly volatile.
Who Should Trade in F&O?
F&O trading is best suited for traders with:
Strong understanding of market mechanics
Ability to handle risk and volatility
Adequate capital and emotional discipline
Knowledge of technical analysis and derivatives pricing
Beginners should start with education, paper trading, and small position sizes before committing significant capital.
Conclusion
F&O trading is a powerful financial tool that offers immense opportunities for profit, hedging, and portfolio optimization. However, it is not a shortcut to quick wealth. The same leverage that amplifies gains can also magnify losses. Success in F&O trading requires deep knowledge, disciplined execution, robust risk management, and continuous learning.
For traders who respect its complexity and approach it with patience and preparation, F&O trading can become a valuable component of long-term market participation. For those who treat it as gambling, it often results in significant financial loss. Understanding the mechanics, risks, and strategies is the first and most crucial step toward sustainable success in the F&O segment.
A Comprehensive Guide to Profitable and Risk-Managed TradingSmart Option Strategies:
Options trading is often perceived as complex and risky, but when approached intelligently, it can become one of the most versatile and powerful tools in financial markets. Smart option strategies focus not on speculation, but on structured planning, risk control, probability analysis, and adaptability to market conditions. These strategies are designed to generate consistent returns, protect capital, and take advantage of different market scenarios such as bullish, bearish, sideways, or volatile environments.
Understanding the Foundation of Smart Option Strategies
At the core of smart option strategies lies a deep understanding of how options work. Options derive their value from an underlying asset, influenced by factors such as price movement, time decay (theta), volatility (vega), and sensitivity to price changes (delta and gamma). Smart traders do not rely solely on predicting direction; instead, they exploit these factors to create an edge.
A key principle is probability-based trading. Rather than betting on large, uncertain moves, smart strategies often aim for high-probability setups where small, consistent gains compound over time. This approach emphasizes discipline, patience, and statistical advantage rather than emotional decision-making.
Market Condition-Based Strategy Selection
One of the smartest aspects of options trading is choosing strategies based on market conditions:
Bullish Markets: Strategies such as covered calls, bull call spreads, and cash-secured puts allow traders to profit from upward movement while controlling risk.
Bearish Markets: Bear put spreads and call credit spreads help traders benefit from declining prices with limited downside.
Sideways Markets: Iron condors, butterflies, and calendar spreads are particularly effective when the market is range-bound.
High Volatility Markets: Selling options through credit spreads or iron condors can capitalize on elevated premiums, while long straddles or strangles can be used when expecting sharp moves.
Smart option traders adapt continuously rather than forcing a single strategy across all conditions.
Risk Management as the Core Pillar
Risk management is the backbone of all smart option strategies. Unlike naive traders who focus only on profit potential, smart traders prioritize maximum loss control. This is achieved by:
Using spreads instead of naked options
Defining stop-loss levels before entering trades
Position sizing based on total capital
Avoiding overexposure to a single stock or sector
Many smart strategies intentionally accept limited profits in exchange for clearly defined and manageable risks. This trade-off is essential for long-term survival and growth in options trading.
Income Generation Through Smart Option Selling
One of the most popular smart option strategies is option selling, particularly when done with proper hedging. Selling options allows traders to benefit from time decay, which works in their favor as expiration approaches.
Strategies such as:
Covered calls
Cash-secured puts
Credit spreads
Iron condors
are designed to generate steady income rather than chasing large directional gains. These strategies thrive on consistency, making them ideal for traders who prioritize stable returns over high-risk speculation.
Using Volatility Intelligently
Volatility is a critical element in options pricing, and smart strategies revolve around understanding whether options are overpriced or underpriced. High implied volatility often favors option sellers, while low volatility may benefit option buyers.
Smart traders monitor volatility indicators, earnings announcements, macroeconomic events, and global cues to decide when to deploy specific strategies. Trading volatility rather than direction is a hallmark of advanced options trading.
Time Decay Optimization
Time decay is inevitable in options, but smart strategies harness it effectively. Instead of fighting theta, experienced traders often structure positions where time decay works in their favor. Short-duration strategies, weekly options, and carefully timed entries allow traders to extract value as options lose time value.
At the same time, smart traders avoid holding long options too close to expiration unless there is a clear catalyst, as rapid decay can erode profits quickly.
Hedging and Portfolio Protection
Another critical aspect of smart option strategies is hedging. Options are not just tools for profit; they are also powerful instruments for risk protection. Protective puts, collars, and spread hedges help safeguard portfolios against sudden market crashes or unexpected events.
This dual role—earning income while providing insurance—makes options uniquely valuable in uncertain global markets.
Psychology and Discipline in Options Trading
Even the smartest strategy fails without emotional discipline. Smart option traders follow predefined rules, avoid revenge trading, and accept losses as part of the process. They focus on long-term expectancy rather than short-term outcomes.
Consistency in execution, maintaining a trading journal, and reviewing performance regularly are essential practices that separate successful traders from amateurs.
Technology and Data-Driven Decisions
Modern smart option strategies are increasingly data-driven. Traders use option chains, Greeks analysis, probability calculators, and back-tested systems to refine entries and exits. Automation and rule-based execution reduce emotional bias and improve efficiency.
In today’s fast-moving markets, the intelligent use of technology provides a significant competitive advantage.
Conclusion: The Smart Way to Trade Options
Smart option strategies are not about predicting the market perfectly; they are about managing uncertainty intelligently. By combining probability, risk management, adaptability, and discipline, traders can turn options into a consistent wealth-building tool rather than a speculative gamble.
In a world of volatile global markets, rising interest rates, and frequent macroeconomic shocks, smart option strategies offer flexibility, control, and resilience. When applied correctly, they empower traders to navigate any market condition with confidence, precision, and long-term sustainability.
How Large-Scale Forces Shape Global Markets and EconomiesMacro Events Impact:
Macro events are large-scale economic, political, financial, and social developments that influence entire countries, regions, or the global system. Unlike company-specific or sector-specific factors, macro events operate at a broader level and often create ripple effects across markets, industries, currencies, and investor sentiment. Understanding the impact of macro events is essential for policymakers, businesses, investors, and individuals, as these forces determine economic cycles, capital flows, and long-term growth trends.
1. Understanding Macro Events
Macro events refer to significant developments that affect the overall economic environment. These include interest rate changes, inflation trends, geopolitical conflicts, pandemics, technological disruptions, climate events, and major policy decisions. Because they influence supply, demand, liquidity, and confidence at a systemic level, macro events often trigger widespread reactions across financial markets and real economies.
Such events are usually beyond the control of individual firms or investors, yet their impact can be profound. A single macro decision—such as a central bank raising interest rates—can alter borrowing costs, investment behavior, consumption patterns, and asset valuations globally.
2. Monetary Policy and Interest Rate Decisions
One of the most powerful macro events is a change in monetary policy by central banks. Interest rate hikes or cuts influence inflation control, economic growth, and currency strength. When rates rise, borrowing becomes expensive, slowing down consumption and investment. Equity markets often react negatively, while bonds and currencies may strengthen depending on expectations.
Conversely, rate cuts aim to stimulate economic activity by encouraging spending and investment. Liquidity injections through quantitative easing can push asset prices higher, sometimes creating asset bubbles. Markets closely track central bank communication, as even small signals or guidance can cause volatility.
3. Inflation and Economic Growth Data
Inflation reports, GDP growth numbers, employment data, and industrial production figures are key macro indicators. Higher-than-expected inflation reduces purchasing power and forces policymakers to tighten monetary conditions. This can lead to stock market corrections, higher bond yields, and currency fluctuations.
Strong economic growth data usually supports equity markets, but if growth is accompanied by rising inflation, the positive effect may be short-lived. Weak data, on the other hand, raises fears of recession, reducing risk appetite and increasing demand for safe-haven assets like gold or government bonds.
4. Fiscal Policy and Government Decisions
Government spending, taxation policies, subsidies, and budget deficits also represent critical macro events. Expansionary fiscal policy, such as increased infrastructure spending or tax cuts, can boost economic activity in the short term. Sectors like construction, manufacturing, and consumer goods often benefit from such measures.
However, excessive fiscal deficits can raise concerns about debt sustainability, leading to higher bond yields and currency depreciation. Markets assess not only the size of fiscal measures but also their long-term impact on economic stability and growth.
5. Geopolitical Events and Global Uncertainty
Wars, trade disputes, sanctions, and diplomatic tensions significantly affect global markets. Geopolitical instability disrupts supply chains, raises commodity prices, and increases uncertainty. Energy markets are particularly sensitive to conflicts in oil- and gas-producing regions.
Trade wars and sanctions can reduce global trade volumes, affect corporate profitability, and slow economic growth. Investors often respond by reducing exposure to risky assets and shifting capital toward safer regions or instruments.
6. Global Crises and Black Swan Events
Unexpected macro events such as financial crises, pandemics, or systemic banking failures have far-reaching consequences. These “black swan” events typically cause sharp market sell-offs, liquidity shortages, and economic contractions.
The global financial crisis demonstrated how interconnected financial systems amplify shocks. Similarly, pandemics can simultaneously affect supply, demand, labor markets, and consumer behavior. Recovery from such events often requires coordinated global policy responses.
7. Currency Markets and Capital Flows
Macro events strongly influence currency valuations. Interest rate differentials, economic stability, and political confidence drive capital flows between countries. A strong currency can reduce export competitiveness, while a weak currency can increase inflation through higher import costs.
Emerging markets are particularly vulnerable to macro shocks such as sudden changes in global interest rates or risk sentiment. Capital outflows during periods of global uncertainty can pressure currencies, stock markets, and foreign exchange reserves.
8. Commodity Prices and Inflation Transmission
Commodities such as oil, metals, and agricultural products are highly sensitive to macro events. Supply disruptions, geopolitical tensions, and weather-related events can cause sharp price movements. Rising commodity prices often feed into inflation, affecting consumers and businesses alike.
Energy prices, in particular, play a crucial role in shaping inflation trends and economic growth. Sustained high energy costs can reduce corporate margins and household spending power.
9. Impact on Financial Markets
Equity markets, bond markets, and alternative assets all respond differently to macro events. Stocks are influenced by growth expectations and corporate earnings, while bonds react to inflation and interest rate outlooks. Gold and other safe-haven assets tend to perform well during periods of uncertainty.
Market volatility often increases around major macro announcements. Investors adjust portfolios based on changing risk perceptions, leading to sector rotation and shifts between asset classes.
10. Long-Term Structural Implications
Some macro events create lasting structural changes. Technological advancements, demographic shifts, climate policies, and globalization trends reshape economies over decades. These long-term macro forces influence labor markets, productivity, and competitive dynamics across industries.
Understanding these structural impacts helps investors and policymakers make informed decisions beyond short-term market reactions.
Conclusion
Macro events are powerful forces that shape economic outcomes and financial market behavior. From central bank policies and inflation trends to geopolitical conflicts and global crises, these events influence growth, stability, and investor confidence at a systemic level. While macro events often create uncertainty and volatility, they also present opportunities for those who understand their implications. A comprehensive awareness of macro impacts enables better risk management, strategic planning, and long-term decision-making in an increasingly interconnected global economy.
NIFTYBEES : Position to systematically de-risk BPCL tradeToday’s sharp correction in BPCL and the broader Oil & Gas space reflects a classic “geopolitical discount.” With the U.S. threatening a steep 500% tariff, uncertainty around OMC earnings has surged, triggering risk-off positioning across the sector.
In response, I’m de-risking the portfolio by initiating an allocation into Nifty BeES. The Nifty 50 is currently consolidating around its 20-day and 50-day EMAs, a zone that historically acts as a strong demand area. The probability of price finding support at these levels and staging a rebound remains high.
While BPCL faces near-term headwinds from potential inventory losses and pressure from discounted Russian crude dynamics, the Nifty 50 is structurally supported by its Banking and IT heavyweights, which continue to benefit from improving earnings visibility and relative global stability.
This trade is therefore not a directional bet alone, but a strategic hedge—aimed at balancing portfolio risk, reducing volatility, and maintaining market participation amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty.
📢📢📢
If my perspective changes or if I gather additional fundamental data that influences my views, I will provide updates accordingly.
Thank you for following along with this journey, and I remain committed to sharing insights and updates as my trading strategy evolves. As always, please feel free to reach out with any questions or comments.
Other posts related to this particular position and scrip, if any, will be attached underneath. Do check those out too.
Disclaimer : The analysis shared here is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in all markets carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. It’s essential to conduct your own research and assess your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions. The views expressed in this analysis are solely mine. It’s important to note that I am not a SEBI registered analyst, so the analysis provided does not constitute formal investment advice under SEBI regulations.
Gold trading strategy for 14th January 2026🟡 GOLD (MCX) – Intraday & Scalping Trading Plan 💰
📊 Timeframe Used: 30-Minute Candle
🎯 Trading Style: Intraday + Quick Scalping
🔼 BUY SETUP (Intraday Long) 🟢
📌 Condition:
👉 Buy ONLY if price breaks and closes ABOVE the HIGH of the 30-minute candle
👉 Confirmation level: Above 4635
💰 Buy Above: 4635 (with candle close)
🎯 Targets:
Target 1: 4649
Target 2: 4660
Target 3: 4675
🛑 Stop Loss:
Below the 30-min candle low or
As per your risk management (₹15–25 points recommended)
📈 Logic:
✔️ Breakout + candle close shows strength
✔️ Buyers in control above 4635
✔️ Momentum-based intraday move expected
🔽 SELL SETUP (Intraday Short) 🔴
📌 Condition:
👉 Sell ONLY if price breaks and closes BELOW the LOW of the 30-minute candle
👉 Confirmation level: Below 4568
💰 Sell Below: 4568 (with candle close)
🎯 Targets:
Target 1: 4550
Target 2: 4535
Target 3: 4520
🛑 Stop Loss:
Above the 30-min candle high or
As per your risk management (₹15–25 points recommended)
📉 Logic:
✔️ Breakdown + candle close shows weakness
✔️ Sellers dominate below 4568
✔️ Continuation move expected on downside
⚡ SCALPING SETUPS (5–10 Points Only) 💵
🔴 Scalp SELL near Resistance
📍 Sell Zone: Around 4635 area
📌 Entry:
👉 Sell at the BREAK of the LOW of the breakout candle
🎯 Scalp Target:
₹5 to ₹10 points only
🛑 Tight SL:
High of breakout candle
🟢 Scalp BUY near Support
📍 Buy Zone: Around 4568 area
📌 Entry:
👉 Buy at the BREAK of the HIGH of the breakout candle
🎯 Scalp Target:
₹5 to ₹10 points only
🛑 Tight SL:
Low of breakout candle
⚠️ Note:
✔️ Scalping is strictly for quick execution
✔️ Do not hold scalp trades
✔️ Book profits fast 💨
⚠️ IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER ❗
🚨 This analysis is for educational purposes only
🚨 Not a buy/sell recommendation
🚨 Commodity markets involve high risk
🚨 Trade only with proper stop loss & risk management
🚨 Past performance does not guarantee future results
🚨 Consult your financial advisor before trading
Market Update: Gold The Battle at 4600After an explosive breakout to new all time highs, Gold is currently in a classic breather phase, sustaining its position remarkably well above the previous ATH. We are seeing a high-tight consolidation essentially a Bullish Flag forming on the daily chart. This suggests that the market is merely digesting recent gains and building the necessary energy for the next leg higher. Despite the broader bullish sentiment fueled by recent geopolitical tensions in Iran and the "Powell Probe" investigation into the Fed, the bulls have hit a temporary ceiling.
The 4600 level has emerged as the immediate line in the sand. On a daily closing basis, we are seeing consistent rejection here; the price is struggling to print a solid candle body above this psychological milestone. For a high conviction continuation, we need to see a clear daily close above 4600. Once this horizontal resistance is cleared, the structural path opens up toward the Monthly R2 at 4731.
On the flip side, the downside remains well protected. The Monthly R1 (4526) area is our primary support zone. As long as we hold above this on a daily close basis, the buy the dip mentality remains the dominant play. The mix of sticky CPI data and safe haven rotation keeps the floor solid, even if the bullish wave continuation requires a bit more patience.
NIFTY KEY LEVELS FOR 14.01.2026NIFTY KEY LEVELS FOR 14.01.2026
Timeframe: 3 Minutes
If the candle stays above the pivot point, it is considered a bullish bias; if it remains below, it indicates a bearish bias. Price may reverse near Resistance 1 or Support 1. If it moves further, the next potential reversal zone is near Resistance 2 or Support 2. If these levels are also broken, we can expect the trend.
When a support or resistance level is broken, it often reverses its role; a broken resistance becomes the new support, and a broken support becomes the new resistance.
If the range(R2-S2) is narrow, the market may become volatile or trend strongly. If the range is wide, the market is more likely to remain sideways
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📢 Disclaimer
I am not a SEBI-registered financial adviser.
The information, views, and ideas shared here are purely for educational and informational purposes only. They are not intended as investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instruments.
Please consult with your SEBI-registered financial advisor before making any trading or investment decisions.
Trading and investing in the stock market involves risk, and you should do your own research and analysis. You are solely responsible for any decisions made based on this research.
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels - 14/01/2026A flat opening is expected in Nifty, with the index trading near the 25,700–25,750 zone, which continues to act as an important intraday pivot area. The broader structure remains weak after the recent sharp decline, and price action suggests consolidation rather than immediate trend reversal.
On the upside, a reversal long can be considered only if Nifty sustains above 25,750–25,800. A confirmed hold above this zone may trigger short covering and pull the index towards 25,850, 25,900, and 25,950+. However, upside momentum is likely to remain limited unless price decisively reclaims the 25,950 resistance.
On the downside, 25,700 remains a crucial breakdown level. If the index slips below 25,700, fresh selling pressure may emerge with downside targets at 25,650, 25,550, and 25,500. The 25,500 area is a strong support, and any sustained break below it can extend weakness further.
Overall, the market remains range-bound with a bearish bias. Traders should wait for a clear breakout above resistance or breakdown below support, follow strict risk management, and avoid aggressive positions during the initial phase of the session.
[INTRADAY] #BANKNIFTY PE & CE Levels(14/01/2026)A flat opening is expected in Bank Nifty, with price hovering around the 59,500–59,600 zone, which is acting as an intraday equilibrium area. Recent price action shows range-bound behavior with sharp intraday swings, indicating indecision and a lack of fresh directional cues.
On the upside, a sustained move above 59,550 will be important to trigger bullish momentum. If the index holds above this level, CE buying can be considered with upside targets at 59,750, 59,850, and 59,950+. A decisive breakout above 59,950 may open the door for a stronger recovery move.
On the downside, rejection near current levels and a break below 59,450–59,400 can invite selling pressure. In that case, PE positions may work for targets at 59,250, 59,150, and 59,050, where strong support is placed near 59,050. A breakdown below this support could accelerate downside momentum.
Overall, the structure remains range-bound. It is advisable to trade only after a clear level breakout or breakdown, maintain strict stop-losses, and avoid overtrading until a decisive move emerges.
MOTILALOFS - LongIn this chart, price has formed a lower low near the support zone, but RSI has made a higher low. This is called positive divergence and it shows that selling pressure is weakening even though price dipped. It often appears near the end of a down move.
Near the same area, a Morning Star pattern is visible. First, there is a strong red candle showing panic selling. Then a small candle appears, showing indecision. Finally, a strong green candle closes well into the body of the first red candle, indicating that buyers are stepping in.
What makes this setup more interesting is that it is forming at support, with high volumes, and along with RSI divergence. When price, volume, candles, and momentum align like this, it increases the chances of a short-term reversal or a relief rally.
This is for educational purposes only and not a buy or sell recommendation. Markets involve risk, and always use proper risk management before taking any trade.
Gold Analysis & Trading Strategy | January 13-14
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✅ 4-Hour Chart (H4) Trend Analysis
1️⃣ Overall Structure: High-Level Consolidation After Spike
Gold completed a strong impulsive rally from 4274 → 4634.
Price is now consolidating around the 4600 pivot belt, entering:
➡ Spike completed → High-level consolidation → Correction digestion phase (main trend still bullish).
Recent small-bodied candles show profit-taking and distribution at highs, not a fresh trend acceleration.
2️⃣ Bollinger Bands: Upper Band Rejection → Mean Reversion
Upper band rejected price near 4660
Candles drifting toward mid-band (4531)
➡ Indicates post-spike digestion & corrective consolidation.
✅ 1-Hour Chart (H1) Trend Analysis
1️⃣ Structure: Intraday Corrective Channel
Price rejected at 4634
➡ Sideways-to-bearish corrective rhythm.
2️⃣Bollinger Bands: Mid-Band Lost → Support Test
Price below mid-band
Lower band near 4575–4565
➡ Downside test zone active.
🔴 Resistance Levels
4595 – 4602
4610 – 4623
4630 – 4650
🟢 Support Levels
4575 – 4565
4555 – 4545
4533 – 4520
✅ Gold Trading Strategy Reference
🔰 Strategy 1 — Sell on Pullbacks (Main Strategy)
📍 Sell Zone 1: 4595 – 4602
📍 Sell Zone 2: 4620 – 4630
⛔ SL: Above 4635
🎯 Targets:
TP1: 4575
TP2: 4565
TP3: 4545
TP4: 4533 – 4520
🔰 Strategy 2 — Buy the Dip (Conditional Only)
Only when stabilization signals appear:
📍 Buy Zone: 4575 – 4565
📍 Backup Zone: 4545 – 4555
⛔ SL: Below 4550 / 4545
🎯 Targets:
TP1: 4595
TP2: 4610
TP3: 4630
✅ Trend Summary
H4: Mid-term bullish but in post-spike consolidation
H1: Short-term corrective & weak — rebounds = selling opportunities
Rhythm: Sell rallies first, dip-buy only at key supports
INDIAN HOTELS (INDHOTEL) – Swing Trade SetupINDIAN HOTELS (INDHOTEL): CMP: 748.65; RSI: 51.47
✅ Trend: Strong Bullish (Weekly Golden Cross)
📐 Pattern: Flag consolidation → Breakout setup
🔔 Entry:
• Above ₹770 (weekly close / breakout confirmation)
⛔ Stop Loss:
• ₹700 (below flag support & recent swing low)
🎯 Targets:
• T1: ₹820–830 (partial profit)
• T2: ₹880–900 (flag pole projection / Wave-V zone)
📌 Risk–Reward: ~1:2.5 to 1:3
⚠️ Note:
• Enter only on breakout with volume
• Trail SL once T1 is achieved
📈 Trend is up. Consolidation is healthy. Breakout can lead to next expansion leg.
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Zen Technologies Limited (ZENTEC) @ critical junctureZENTEC – Technical Outlook; CMP: ₹1467
Based on a comprehensive technical analysis of Zen Technologies Limited (ZENTEC), the stock is currently positioned at a critical juncture, with both Elliott Wave theory and the Bat Harmonic pattern indicating potential trading opportunities.
Elliott Wave Analysis
ZENTEC is trading at ₹1,467 as of October 2, 2025, down from its peak of ₹2,627 (Dec 2024).
The stock has retraced ~69% from its Wave 5 high, reflecting significant corrective pressure.
Price action suggests the stock is in Wave C of an ABC corrective pattern, following the completion of a five-wave impulse sequence.
Bat Harmonic Pattern
The Bat harmonic pattern is nearing completion with the following structure:
XA Leg: ₹1,293 → ₹2,266 (primary trend)
AB Retracement: 38.2%–50% of XA (completed)
BC Leg: Current position near ₹2,061
CD Target: 88.6% retracement at ₹1,357.06 (Potential Reversal Zone – PRZ)
This alignment suggests that the downside pressure is close to exhaustion, and bottoming out may be near .
Trading Strategy
Buy Zone (Long-Term Investors): ₹1,340 – ₹1,427
Stop Loss: ₹1,293
Aggressive Entry: On confirmed breakout above ₹1,550 (stop loss-1340)
Targets:
T1: ₹1,645
T2: ₹1,821
T3: ₹2,061
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