Get started

X-indicator

Energy Trading and Geopolitics1. Introduction to Event-Driven Trading Event-driven trading is a subset of fundamental trading strategies that react to specific corporate or macroeconomic events. These events create temporary inefficiencies in the market, which traders attempt to exploit. Unlike long-term investing, which focuses on company fundamentals and growth, event-driven trading is short-term and opportunistic, leveraging price volatility around events. Key Characteristics: Trades are short-term, typically lasting hours to days around an event. High volatility is expected around the event. Requires pre-event analysis to predict likely outcomes. Risk is event-specific, rather than market-specific. 2. Earnings Announcements: The Core Event Earnings announcements are the public disclosure of a company’s financial performance over a given period, usually a quarter. They include metrics such as: Revenue Earnings per share (EPS) Net income Guidance for future performance Importance for Traders: Earnings reports are highly market-sensitive events, often causing large price swings. The market reacts not just to actual numbers, but also to expectations vs reality. Earnings Reaction Components: Surprise Effect – The difference between reported earnings and analyst expectations. Guidance Effect – Future outlook provided by the company. Market Sentiment – How traders interpret the news relative to broader market conditions. 3. Types of Event-Driven Earnings Trading Strategies Event-driven earnings trading can be divided into several approaches: 3.1. Pre-Earnings Positioning Traders take positions before the earnings release based on expected outcomes. Bullish Pre-Earnings Trade: Buy a stock anticipating strong earnings. Bearish Pre-Earnings Trade: Short a stock expecting disappointing results. Tools Used: Historical earnings data Analyst consensus estimates Options implied volatility Risks: Surprise moves can result in rapid losses. Unanticipated market reactions to guidance or macro news. 3.2. Post-Earnings Reaction Trading Traders react immediately after the earnings announcement. Buy the Rumor, Sell the Fact: Stocks often overreact to news. Momentum Plays: Riding the initial surge after positive surprises. Mean Reversion Plays: Betting that overreaction will correct itself. Tools Used: Real-time news feeds Trading platforms with low latency Volatility analysis Risks: Sudden reversal after initial move. Liquidity issues if the stock gaps significantly. 3.3. Options-Based Earnings Strategies Options provide ways to trade earnings with defined risk. 3.3.1. Straddle Buy both a call and put at the same strike. Profits from high volatility, regardless of direction. Risk is limited to premium paid. 3.3.2. Strangle Buy out-of-the-money call and put. Cheaper than straddle but requires bigger moves to profit. 3.3.3. Iron Condor Sell out-of-the-money call and put while buying farther OTM options. Profits if stock remains within a range. Strategy bets on low volatility post-earnings. 3.4. Pair and Relative Performance Strategies Trading two related stocks to profit from earnings mispricing. Example: Buy outperformer, short underperformer in same sector. Reduces market-wide risk, isolates company-specific reactions. 4. Key Factors to Consider Before Earnings Trading Earnings Expectations Compare consensus estimates vs historical performance. Understand market sentiment and analyst revisions. Volatility Stocks often exhibit high implied volatility before earnings. Option premiums increase, providing trading opportunities. Liquidity Ensure stock or options have sufficient trading volume. Avoid illiquid stocks to reduce slippage risk. Historical Patterns Some companies have predictable post-earnings moves. Analyze seasonal patterns and sector behavior. Macro Environment Broader market conditions can amplify or dampen earnings reactions. Example: Interest rate announcements, geopolitical news. 5. Risk Management in Event-Driven Earnings Trading Event-driven earnings trading carries unique risks due to high volatility and uncertainty. 5.1. Pre-Event Risks Unexpected Results: Missing analyst expectations can trigger sharp declines. Volatility Crush: Post-earnings implied volatility often drops, reducing option premiums. 5.2. Post-Event Risks Gaps and Slippage: Overnight gaps can bypass stop-loss orders. False Momentum: Initial spikes may reverse quickly. 5.3. Hedging Techniques Use options to limit downside. Trade pairs or sector spreads to reduce market exposure. Scale positions gradually to manage risk. 6. Tools and Platforms for Earnings Trading Trading Platforms Real-time order execution Earnings calendars and alerts News Feeds Bloomberg, Reuters, or market-specific news aggregators Twitter feeds of analysts for sentiment Analytics Software Implied volatility tracking Earnings surprise calculators Option strategy simulators Backtesting Platforms Historical earnings data analysis Strategy testing under various market conditions 7. Case Studies and Examples Example 1: Apple Inc. (AAPL) Pre-Earnings Trade: Expecting strong iPhone sales → bought calls. Outcome: Positive earnings beat → stock jumped 6% → profit realized. Lesson: Pre-event positioning can be profitable if market consensus aligns. Example 2: Tesla Inc. (TSLA) Post-Earnings Reaction Trade: Tesla missed delivery targets → stock dropped. Strategy: Shorted the initial momentum → profit from the decline. Lesson: Quick post-event reactions can exploit overreactions. Example 3: Options Straddle Stock: Netflix Scenario: High uncertainty before earnings Action: Buy straddle to profit from a large move in either direction. Outcome: Stock surged → call gained, put lost → net profit exceeded risk. 8. Behavioral Aspects and Market Psychology Market reactions to earnings often deviate from rational expectations due to: Herd Behavior: Traders following momentum. Anchoring: Overemphasis on prior earnings trends. Confirmation Bias: Ignoring contrary signals. Understanding these psychological factors can give traders an edge. 9. Regulatory and Reporting Considerations Insider Trading Rules: Avoid trading on non-public material information. Earnings Manipulation Awareness: Watch for red flags in financial reports. Disclosure Compliance: Ensure strategies do not violate SEC or local regulations. 10. Conclusion Event-driven earnings trading is a sophisticated strategy that requires both fundamental and technical analysis skills. By focusing on corporate events like earnings announcements, traders can exploit short-term volatility and market inefficiencies. Successful execution involves: Detailed pre-event research Effective risk management Rapid execution and monitoring Understanding market psychology Using options and hedging strategies wisely When practiced diligently, earnings trading can become a powerful tool in a trader’s arsenal, offering consistent opportunities in an otherwise efficient market.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by TechnicalExpress
10
ETERNAL (Zomato): Breakdown Below Trendline ETERNAL (Zomato) had been on a strong bull run since April 2025, rallying from ₹195 to ₹344 🚀. Throughout this journey, the stock consistently respected an upward trendline, bouncing every time it touched the line. But things changed on 26th September 2025: ❌ The stock broke down below the trendline support for the first time. After the breakdown, it reached a low of ₹320, signaling that the structure had become weak ✨ 1. Trendline Signals (Daily Chart) If we connect all the key highs of September 2024, December 2024, August 2025, and September 2025, we obtain a resistance trendline. Recently, the stock gave a breakout above this trendline, but it failed to sustain and quickly slipped back below it. This false breakout followed by weakness is often a bearish signal ⚠️. 📅 2. Short-Term View Right now, the stock is hovering near ₹320, a critical support level. If ₹320 breaks decisively, the weakness will get confirmed, and the stock may head toward: 🎯 ₹310 🎯 ₹300 (short-term target zone). Until then, some retracement or sideways movement may happen, but the overall bias is weak. 🕰️ 3. Weekly Chart View (Bigger Picture) Last week, the stock formed a bearish engulfing candle, where the body of the red candle completely covers the body of the previous green candle. This pattern is a reversal signal, showing sellers overpowering buyers. If this week’s close is below ₹320, it will confirm the bearish engulfing pattern ✅, adding further weight to the downside scenario. 📌 Summary: 🔻 Weakness Detected: Breakdown of trendline + false breakout on resistance. ⚠️ Confirmation Needed: Closing below ₹320 will confirm bearish engulfing and continuation of weakness. 🎯 Targets: If ₹320 breaks, next levels are ₹310 and ₹300. 🛡️ If ₹320 holds: Stock may bounce, but the overall structure remains fragile.
NSE:ETERNALShort
by ChartsBySachin
DIXON REACTING AT GANN LINE CROSSINGHere iwould like to show you how gann fan crossings are reacting for dixon.Look at the chart i plotted here two gann FAN symmetrical but opposite(180 DEGREE) . Here you can see that after completion of inverse head and shoulder dixon is rallying down and penitrated neckline of H&S now trading near previous consolidation zone if it is broken, I am expecting that it will try to test T1 which is previous support and cross point of gann lines. Cross lines are marked by RED coloured arrow. where dixon is reacting. If you see closely there is a gap bellow previous consolidation zone,it might be possible that dixon coming down to fill this gap . red lines are mentioned here as resistance and green as support. this is not my buy/sell call please remember.
NSE:DIXONShort
by OVIMONT
HDFCBANK 1D Time frameCurrent Market Snapshot Current Price: ₹954.05 Opening Price: ₹945.10 Day's Range: ₹939.10 – ₹953.00 Previous Close: ₹945.05 🔑 Technical Indicators Relative Strength Index (RSI): 35.08 – indicating a neutral to bearish condition. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): -6.02 – suggesting bearish momentum. Moving Averages: Trading below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a bearish trend. 📈 Key Support & Resistance Levels Immediate Support: ₹939 Immediate Resistance: ₹953 Pivot Point: ₹946 📉 Market Sentiment Trend: The stock is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a bearish trend. Volume: Trading volume is higher than average, suggesting increased investor activity. 📈 Strategy (1D Timeframe) 1. Bullish Scenario Entry: Above ₹953 Stop-Loss: ₹939 Target: ₹960 → ₹965 2. Bearish Scenario Entry: Below ₹939 Stop-Loss: ₹953 Target: ₹930 → ₹925 ⚠️ Risk Management Limit risk to 1% of capital per trade. Always use stop-loss to protect against unexpected market movements. Monitor broader market trends and sector-specific news that may impact stock performance.
NSE:HDFCBANKLong
by Knowledgehub
6
Dam Capital Advisors cmp 243.50 by Daily Chart view since listedDam Capital Advisors cmp 243.50 by Daily Chart view since listed - Support Zone 222 to 234 Price Band - Resistance Zone 264 to 275 Price Band - Volumes are flattish below avg traded quantity, need to improve - Support Zone test retest should be expected before fresh upside - 1st Falling Resistance Trendline Breakout seems well sustained for now - 2nd Falling Resistance Trendline Breakout might be seen happening in short term - Rising Support Trendline well respected, gradually trending upwards since ATL 195.55 price level
NSE:DAMCAPITAL
by PIYUSHCHAVDA
NIFTY KEY LEVELS FOR 29.09.2025NIFTY KEY LEVELS FOR 29.09.2025 RTF: 3 Minutes If the candle stays above the pivot point, it is considered a bullish bias; if it remains below, it indicates a bearish bias. Price may reverse near Resistance 1 or Support 1. If it moves further, the next potential reversal zone is near Resistance 2 or Support 2. If these levels are also broken, we can expect the trend. When a support or resistance level is broken, it often reverses its role; a broken resistance becomes the new support, and a broken support becomes the new resistance. If the range(R2-S2) is narrow, the market may become volatile or trend strongly. If the range is wide, the market is more likely to remain sideways please like and share my idea if you find it helpful 📢 Disclaimer I am not a SEBI-registered financial adviser. The information, views, and ideas shared here are purely for educational and informational purposes only. They are not intended as investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instruments. Please consult with your SEBI-registered financial advisor before making any trading or investment decisions. Trading and investing in the stock market involves risk, and you should do your own research and analysis. You are solely responsible for any decisions made based on this research.
NSE:NIFTY
by AATHIE
Gold Hits Fresh ATH fresh Support at 3790, Bulls Eye 3806 & 3850Gold printed a fresh all time high today and, so far, there are no signs of rejection on higher timeframes. The immediate level to watch on the downside is last week’s high near 3790, which now acts as key support. As long as price holds above this level on a 4H or higher close, bulls remain in control and may attempt a move toward the next resistance zone at 3800–3806, which is aligned with the weekly R1 and psychological round number resistance. A sustained breakout above this zone could open the door for a push toward 3850 (weekly R2). On the flip side, if sellers manage to drag price back below 3790 on a closing basis, we could see a deeper pullback before the next leg higher.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TheGoldenCircle
Nifty Trading Strategy for 29th September 2025📊 Nifty Intraday Trade Setup 🟢 Buy Setup ➡️ Entry: Above the high of 5-min candle (close above 24,770) 🎯 Targets: 24,800 → 24,845 → 24,895 🔴 Sell Setup ➡️ Entry: Below the low of 5-min candle (close below 24,585) 🎯 Targets: 24,550 → 24,510 → 24,470 ⚠️ Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI-registered advisor. This is only for educational & informational purposes. Please do your own research and consult with a certified financial advisor before trading.
NSE:NIFTY
by ramkkyy
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels - 29/09/2025Nifty is expected to open around the 24,750 zone today, which is a crucial resistance area after the recent downtrend. If the index sustains above 24,750–24,800, then a small relief rally could be seen toward 24,850, 24,900, and 24,950+. However, this upside may remain limited as the broader structure is still weak. On the downside, if Nifty slips below 24,700, selling pressure may resume, dragging the index toward 24,600, 24,550, and 24,500-. This indicates that the index is still in a corrective phase, and unless a strong breakout is seen, rallies could face selling at higher levels. Traders should be cautious near 24,750 resistance and manage trades with strict stop-losses, favoring short setups on breakdowns for safer opportunities.
NSE:NIFTY
by TradZoo
[INTRADAY] #BANKNIFTY PE & CE Levels(29/09/2025)Bank Nifty is expected to open slightly gap up today around 54,400–54,450 levels, but the overall market structure still looks weak with sellers dominating recent sessions. On the upside, if Bank Nifty sustains above 54,550–54,600, then a short covering move can be seen, taking the index higher toward 54,750, 54,850, and 54,950+. However, this zone will act as a strong hurdle, and only a decisive breakout can shift momentum in favor of the bulls. On the downside, immediate support lies at 54,450–54,400. A breakdown below these levels could accelerate selling pressure, opening the path toward 54,250, 54,150, and 54,050-. The bias remains weak, and traders should be cautious with long positions unless the index breaks and sustains above the resistance zone. Following the trend with strict stop-loss and quick profit booking will be the safer strategy in this slightly gap-up but overall bearish setup.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by TradZoo
Gold Trading Strategy for 29th September 2025📊 Gold Trading Plan ✨ Buy Setup 🔹 Entry: Buy above the high of the 15-min candle (close above $3773) 🎯 Targets: 1st Target → $3783 2nd Target → $3793 3rd Target → $3805 ✨ Sell Setup 🔹 Entry: Sell below the low of the 1-hour candle (close below $3758) 🎯 Targets: 1st Target → $3747 2nd Target → $3735 3rd Target → $3722 ⚠️ Risk Management Tips (Novice-Friendly) Always set a stop-loss (just below/above entry candle). Trade with small position size if you’re a beginner. Don’t risk more than 1–2% of your capital per trade. 📌 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trading in commodities, stocks, or forex involves significant risk of loss. Do your own research or consult a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. 💡 Tip for Traders: Stick to your plan. Don’t chase trades outside these levels. Discipline = Profitability.
TVC:GOLD
by ramkkyy
1
Gold Trading Strategy for next Monday✅ On Friday, gold rose sharply. We had already advised members to go long around the 3748–3752 area, and the price later climbed to as high as 3783. However, during the second half of the U.S. session, gold pulled back without breaking a new high, indicating weakening bullish momentum. The key question now is whether gold still has the strength to refresh its all-time highs or if this was just a temporary spike. Next week will be a critical observation period. ✅ 4-Hour Chart: Gold has broken out of the recent consolidation range, extending its rally toward the historical high near 3791. The 21-period SMA around 3750 provides strong support. If the price holds below 3750, the short-term structure will turn bearish, possibly falling back into the previous range with downside targets at 3720 and 3700. Conversely, a clear breakout above the 3780–3791 resistance zone could unleash new bullish momentum and open the door to further highs. ✅ 1-Hour Chart: Gold is currently trading in a narrow range, with short-term moving averages gradually turning upward. However, if the rebound momentum fades, a potential double-top could form around 3780–3783, leading to short-term pressure. Overall, unless major news triggers a move, gold will likely remain range-bound early next week. Watch 3780 as resistance and 3720 as support. 🔴 Resistance Levels: 3780–3785 / 3791–3795 🟢 Support Levels: 3745–3755 / 3730–3720 ✅ Trading Strategy Reference: 🔰 If gold holds above the 3745–3755 support zone, consider light long positions with targets at 3780–3785. 🔰 If gold breaks below 3745–3755, a 4-hour double-top will likely be confirmed. In this case, consider light short positions targeting 3730–3720. 🔰 If gold faces resistance at 3780–3785, short entries can be considered with targets back down to 3745–3730. 🔥Trading Reminder: Trading strategies are time-sensitive, and market conditions can change rapidly. Please adjust your trading plan based on real-time market conditions.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by GoldTradingProX
Elliott Wave Analysis XAUUSD – 28/09/2025 ________________________________________ 🔹 Momentum • D1: Momentum is still declining → next week we may continue to see sideways movement or further downside following D1 momentum. • H4: Momentum is also decreasing → on Monday, we expect a continuation of the downtrend. • H1: Momentum is oversold and preparing to rise → during the Asian session on Monday, a short-term upward move is likely. ________________________________________ 🔹 Wave Structure • D1 timeframe: o Price is still within wave 5 (yellow). o If D1 momentum enters the oversold zone and then turns upward, but price remains sideways without reaching 3632, then wave 5 (yellow) may still extend toward the second target at 3887. • H4 timeframe: o A corrective WXY structure is forming. o With H4 momentum turning down, it is likely that wave Y is unfolding. • H1 timeframe: o A declining ABC (blue) structure appeared, followed by a rising ABC (blue) structure toward 3784. o Within this, wave B formed a triangle abcde (red). o This shows two ABC (blue) corrective structures developing within the adjustment, suggesting multiple possibilities for wave Y: 1️⃣ Flat 3-3-5: Wave Y may unfold as a 5-wave sharp decline, with an ideal target around 3713 → this is the expected Buy zone. 2️⃣ Triangle: Price may consolidate sideways above 3718 → patience is required to wait for the pattern to complete. 3️⃣ Large-scale Triangle: If the entire correction is a triangle, price will also sideway above 3718 → wait for completion before acting. • Note: If price breaks above 3792, it may confirm that the corrective structure is complete → next upside target would be 3810. ________________________________________ 🔹 Trade Plan • Buy Zone: 3714 – 3711 • SL: 3703 • TP: 3733 ________________________________________ 👉 Conclusion: The optimal approach is to wait for confirmation: • Either the triangle structure completes, • Or price declines into the 3713 – 3711 zone to set up a Buy entry.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by WavePoint_FX