XAUUSD H4 – Medium-Term Outlook for the Coming WeekGold remains within a broad rising channel, but recent price action shows clear rejection at the upper trendline. For the week ahead, the focus is on a potential technical pullback, while keeping an alternative bullish scenario if the market fully accepts higher prices.
PRIORITY SCENARIO – MAIN SCENARIO
Wait for structural confirmation to sell the medium-term corrective move.
Key confirmation level: a break of the trendline around 4317.
Trade idea: look for confirmation below 4317 to sell the corrective leg within the rising channel.
Technical context: price is trading near the upper boundary of the channel and showing rejection, a common setup before a rotation back toward lower value areas.
Position management:
Sell positions should be treated strictly as corrective trades within a broader uptrend. If price fails to stay below 4317 and regains bullish structure, risk should be reduced and short positions avoided.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO – SECONDARY SCENARIO
Trend continuation if price breaks to new highs and finds acceptance.
Trigger condition: a clean breakout to new highs with sustained bullish momentum.
Trade idea: prioritize buy setups once the market clearly accepts higher prices.
Technical context: successful breakouts often lead to range expansion, making short positions unfavorable.
KEY MEDIUM-TERM BUY ZONE
Liquidity-based opportunity in the event of a deeper pullback.
Reference buy zone: around 4220.
Rationale: this area represents a major liquidity cluster and a logical zone to monitor for bullish reactions during a deeper year-end pullback.
KEY TECHNICAL REASONS
The dominant H4 trend remains bullish, but rejection at the upper channel increases the probability of a technical correction.
The 4317 level acts as a key decision point to distinguish between a genuine pullback and temporary consolidation.
The 4220 area serves as a value zone aligned with liquidity for potential trend-following buys.
MACRO AND NEWS CONTEXT
Recent comments have reinforced expectations of future rate cuts to address labor market risks, which remains supportive for gold in the broader context. Geopolitical developments, including discussions around the next steps in the Gaza peace process, continue to underpin safe-haven demand. However, year-end holiday conditions often result in thinner liquidity, wider spreads, and less reliable price moves, making discipline and risk control essential.
RISK MANAGEMENT AND WEEKLY PLAN
Avoid chasing long positions near the upper trendline of the rising channel. Only consider short positions after clear confirmation below 4317, avoiding emotional top-picking in a bullish market. If price breaks and holds above recent highs, shift focus back to trend-following buy setups. Reduce position size during the holiday week and prioritize trades around well-defined key levels rather than extended moves.
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