XAU/USD: Buy on BOS, FVG + Fibo retracement!◆ Market Context (M30)
Gold has just broken the rising BOS and created a strong push to the short-term peak area of 4,417. After the impulse, the market enters a pullback to rebalance—a common behavior before continuing the main trend.
◆ SMC & Price Action
• The rising structure remains valid (HH–HL).
• The FVG + Fibo zone (0.5–0.618) around 4,374 is the preferred area to look for buying pressure.
• The OB below ~4,339 is a deeper support area if the pullback extends.
• No bearish CHoCH yet → prioritize the bullish continuation scenario.
◆ Key Levels
• Nearest peak/resistance: 4,417
• FVG + Fibo (BUY zone): ~4,374
• Deep OB: ~4,339
• Invalid rise: clear break of 4,339
◆ Trading Scenarios
➤ Scenario A – Pullback BUY (priority)
• Wait for price to retrace to 4,374 (FVG + Fibo)
• Condition: rejection candle / maintain HL
• Targets:
▪ 4,397
▪ 4,417 (peak)
▪ extend if peak is broken
➤ Scenario B – Deeper Pullback
• If 4,374 is breached
• Monitor OB ~4,339 for buying reaction
• Only BUY with structural confirmation
➤ Scenario C – Break & Continue
• If price does not retrace deeply and holds above 4,397
• Follow the trend towards 4,417+
• Avoid FOMO at premium
◆ Summary
• Context: pullback in an uptrend.
• Decision zone: 4,374 → 4,339.
• Upper target: 4,417.
• Prioritize BUY according to structure, manage risk when price is at premium.
Xauusdupdates
XAU/USD – Bullish Structure Intact, Buy Pullbacks Into DemandMarket Context
Gold continues to trade firmly within a rising trend channel, confirming that bullish momentum remains in control. The latest impulse leg successfully broke above the previous consolidation range, signaling strong participation from smart money.
From a macro perspective, expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a dovish stance and move toward rate cuts next year continue to support gold. As a result, current pullbacks are viewed as technical rebalancing, not trend reversal.
Technical Structure (H1 – Short-Term)
Market structure remains Higher Highs – Higher Lows
Price is holding above the ascending trendline
Current price action shows a pullback / rebalancing phase after expansion
No confirmed bearish BOS at this stage
Key Technical Zones
Upper liquidity / resistance:
4,410 – 4,420
Intermediate resistance:
4,374 – 4,384
Primary BUY pullback zone:
4,350 – 4,355
Deeper demand / trend defense:
4,330 – 4,335
Trading Plan – MMF Logic
Primary Scenario – Trend-Following BUY
Prefer waiting for price to pull back into 4,350 – 4,355
Look for price acceptance / selling pressure absorption
Expect continuation toward the upside with trend momentum
Target references:
TP1: 4,374
TP2: 4,384
TP3: 4,410+
Alternative Scenario
If price fails to pull back deeply and holds above 4,362, wait for a break & retest to rejoin the trend
Avoid chasing price in premium zones
Invalidation Level
A confirmed H1 close below 4,330 would weaken the short-term bullish structure and suggest broader consolidation.
Summary
Gold remains structurally bullish.
The current correction is a healthy pullback after expansion, not a reversal.
Bias stays BUY on dips, focusing on discounted zones aligned with the dominant flow.
XAUUSD | Awaiting Reaction at OB + Fibo to Confirm Next Move◆ Market Context (M30)
The price is maintaining an uptrend with a supporting trendline. After a strong push creating a short-term peak, the market enters a pullback to rebalance. The current decline has not broken the upward structure.
◆ SMC & Price Action
• The rapid decline creates an OB + Fibo Sell zone ~4,335 (retesting the premium area).
• The price has reacted at the trendline ~4,315, indicating that buying pressure still protects the structure.
• Liquidity above 4,367 – 4,372 remains → potential for liquidity draw if the trend continues.
◆ Key Levels
• OB + Fibo Sell: ~4,335
• Trendline / Support: ~4,315
• Liquidity (upper target): 4,367 → 4,372
• Invalid uptrend: clear break below trendline ~4,315
◆ Trading Scenarios
➤ Scenario A – Pullback BUY (priority)
• Await price reaction around the trendline ~4,315
• Condition: candles rejecting decline / maintaining higher lows
• Targets:
▪ 4,335
▪ 4,367 → 4,372 (Liquidity)
➤ Scenario B – Short-term Sell
• If the price retraces to OB + Fibo ~4,335 but does not break
• Observe rejection signals to SELL back to 4,315
• Only a scalp against the main trend
➤ Scenario C – Breakdown (defensive)
• If the trendline ~4,315 is decisively broken
• Stay out / wait for a new CHoCH before BUYing again
◆ Summary
• Context: pullback within an uptrend.
• Decision zones: 4,315 (trendline) and 4,335 (OB + Fibo).
• Upper target: 4,367 → 4,372.
• Avoid FOMO; prioritize BUYing pullbacks according to the structure.
XAUUSD M45: SELL at OB 4.331–4.339, BUY at 4.306–4.3121) Market Context (M45) – SMC & Price Structure
The spike up followed by a strong sell-off is a liquidity event (liquidity sweep), creating a clear bearish displacement.
After the sell-off, the price is retracing in a pullback/retest manner → prioritize the strategy “SELL retracement at supply zone,” or “BUY reaction at demand zone” if there is a sweep down.
2) Key Levels
Liquidity Sell (liquidity peak): 4.367.982
OB Bearish (Sell Zone): 4.331.123 – 4.338.610
Liquidity Support (Demand): 4.312.463 – 4.306.358
Current reference price: ~4.326 (currently in the middle of the range, not an optimal entry point)
3) Trading Plan
Scenario A – SELL at OB Bearish (priority)
If the price retraces to the 4.331 – 4.339 zone and shows rejection signals:
pinbar / shadow
downward engulfing
or bearish ChoCH on M15–M45
Then prioritize SELL following the retracement in the short-term bearish structure.
Reference targets:
TP1: 4.312
TP2: 4.306
Invalidation:
M45 candle closes firmly above 4.339 and holds → stop the SELL idea.
Scenario B – BUY at Liquidity Support (reversal scenario)
If the price is pulled down to the 4.312 – 4.306 zone and shows signs of sweep + reclaim (piercing down then closing back up the zone).
Upon confirmation, watch for BUY retracement.
Reference targets:
TP1: 4.331
TP2: 4.339
Note: if the price touches the OB Bearish again without breaking it, prioritize closing and observing the reaction.
Scenario C – Sweep up to Liquidity Sell 4.368 then reverse
If the price breaks above OB Bearish and continues to run liquidity up to 4.368.
The 4.368 zone is suitable for finding a sell reaction (only SELL with confirmation signals).
4) News on 18/12 affecting gold
On 18/12, there is US CPI (November): the most impactful news on gold as it directly affects interest rate expectations, yields, and USD.
On the same day, there are usually Initial Jobless Claims and activity indicators (e.g., Philly Fed), which can easily create short-term spikes for XAUUSD.
After the CPI day, the market often exhibits liquidity sweeps on both ends before choosing a direction → avoid FOMO, prioritize trading at the right zone.
5) Quick Conclusion
Short-term bias: prioritize SELL retracement at OB 4.331–4.339 until the price strongly reclaims above.
Defensive scenario: BUY reaction at 4.312–4.306 if there is a sweep + confirmation.
Avoid entering trades in the middle of the range; wait for “right zone – right signal.”
Liquidity Grab Completed, Waiting for Pullback to ContinueMarket Context
Gold has just completed a strong impulsive rally, sweeping buy-side liquidity above the previous highs. After this expansion, price is now entering a short-term consolidation / pullback phase, which is expected behavior following a liquidity grab rather than a full trend reversal.
From a fundamental perspective, expectations of a more accommodative Fed stance continue to limit downside pressure on Gold, keeping the broader bias supported despite intraday corrections.
Technical Structure (Short-Term)
The larger structure remains bullish
Recent move shows a liquidity grab at the highs, followed by rejection
Current price action suggests rebalancing into demand zones
No confirmed bearish market structure shift so far
Key Technical Zones
Upper Resistance / Sell Reaction: 4,360 – 4,365
Intraday Resistance: 4,333 – 4,336
Buy Zone (Pullback Area): 4,300 – 4,305
Deeper Demand / Liquidity Support: 4,275 – 4,280
Trading Plan – MMF Style
Primary Scenario – Buy the Pullback
Expect price to retrace into 4,300 – 4,305 or deeper toward 4,280
Look for bullish reaction / stabilization to rejoin the trend
Upside targets:
TP1: 4,323
TP2: 4,335
TP3: 4,360+ (liquidity)
Alternative Scenario
If price holds above 4,323 and breaks higher directly, wait for a clean retest before considering continuation setups.
Avoid chasing price at premium levels.
Invalidation
A sustained break and H1 close below 4,275 would weaken the bullish continuation scenario and shift focus to deeper consolidation.
Summary
Gold remains in a bullish environment, with current weakness viewed as a technical pullback after liquidity grab.
Bias remains buy-the-dip, prioritizing patience and confirmation at key demand zones.
XAU/USD| Bullish Structure Holds, Buy Pullbacks for ContinuationGold remains in a well-defined bullish channel. After a strong impulsive move, price is now undergoing a technical pullback / rebalancing phase, which is normal behavior within a healthy uptrend.
From a fundamental perspective, dovish Fed expectations continue to support Gold, keeping downside moves corrective rather than trend-reversing.
Technical Structure (Short-Term)
Bullish market structure remains intact (Higher High – Higher Low)
Current pullback is occurring within the discount zone of the ascending channel
No confirmed bearish break of structure at this stage
Upside liquidity remains stacked above recent highs
Trading Plan – MMF Style
Primary Scenario – Trend-Following BUY
Preferred BUY zone: 4,303 – 4,320
Condition: price holds above support and maintains HL structure
Targets:
TP1: 4,335
TP2: 4,345
TP3: 4,359 (buy-side liquidity)
Alternative Scenario
If price does not pull back deeply and breaks above 4,335, wait for a clean retest to continue BUY setups.
Invalidation
A H1 close below 4,280 invalidates the short-term bullish bias and cancels BUY setups.
Summary
The short-term bias for Gold remains bullish.
Priority remains buying pullbacks within the channel, avoiding FOMO at premium prices and waiting for price to return to key liquidity zones.
XAUUSD is ranging before CPI direction comes after the news.Gold is currently consolidating sideways near the upper zone around 434x as the market awaits inflation data and updates from the BOJ. Short-term volatility may occur, but the overall structure remains intact, with no clear breakout signal seen in the previous session.
Before the news, the preferred strategy is to trade within the range. Traders can look for reaction setups when price approaches 4346–4348, with a mandatory stop-loss, as this area has been tested multiple times.
After the news is released, the market is expected to choose a new direction. If price breaks and holds firmly above the 435x zone, the bullish trend will be confirmed. In that case, the focus shifts to buying the breakout, with targets toward the previous high and potentially a new ATH.
👉 Before the news: trade the range – react at key levels.
👉 After the news: wait for confirmation – follow the trend.
XAU/USD: Rejected at Sell, Awaiting Support Reaction◆ Market Context (M30)
Price has twice swept Liquidity Sell around the peak area but failed to hold, indicating weakening buying pressure at premium. Previously, the market had a Liquidity Sweep + Trap at the bottom, then created an upward BOS, so the current decline is seen as a rebalancing pullback, not yet a confirmed reversal.
◆ SMC & Price Action
• The upper Liquidity Sell area has been completed → profit-taking pressure appears.
• Price is returning to Support Zone 4,275 – 4,270, where it previously held and created BOS.
• Below is a large OB 4,216, acting as a liquidity attraction area if the current support is broken.
• The FVG + Fibo Sell area above is a reaction zone if the price retraces.
◆ Key Levels
• Liquidity Sell (swept): 4,345 – 4,350
• Current Support: 4,275 – 4,270
• Lower OB: 4,216
• Supply / upper target (if rebound): 4,330 → 4,360+
◆ Trading Scenarios
➤ Scenario A – Pullback BUY (priority)
• Await reaction at Support 4,275 – 4,270
• Condition: maintain structure, appearance of rejection candle / buying reaction
• Targets:
▪ 4,305
▪ 4,330
▪ extended: 4,360+
• Invalid if clearly breaks 4,257
➤ Scenario B – Deeper Pullback
• If Support 4,275 is lost
• Monitor reaction at OB 4,216
• Only BUY when a new upward CHoCH appears
➤ Scenario C – Short-term Sell Retracement
• If price retraces to FVG + Fibo Sell but does not break the peak
• Observe rejection signals for short-term SELL back to the support area
◆ Summary
• Context: upper Liquidity Sell swept → prioritize waiting for pullback.
• Decisive area: 4,275 – 4,270.
• Losing this area → potential liquidity attraction to 4,216.
• Avoid FOMO BUY at premium; wait for clear reaction at support/OB.
XAUUSD – Structure Delivered | Buy Complete Sell Phase InitiateThis chart was shared on 12-12-2025 when Gold was holding previous high → flipped support.
That level did exactly what it was supposed to do.
🔹 Buy Logic (12-12-2025):
Previous highs tapped → support confirmed
Strong displacement from the level
Clean bullish structure continuation
Price respected demand and delivered full upside move
🎯 Buy target hit cleanly, no drawdown drama.
Now fast forward ⏩
After the expansion, price reached premium supply / distribution zone, failed to continue higher, and started forming lower highs.
🔻 Current Sell Bias:
Rejection from supply
Bullish structure weakened
Market shifting into retracement / distribution phase
Expecting continuation towards lower imbalance / support zones
This is how the market works:
➡️ Expansion
➡️ Target delivery
➡️ Distribution
➡️ Reversal / retracement
Same chart. Same plan.
Bias changes when structure changes, not when emotions do.
#XAUUSD #Gold #SmartMoney #MarketStructure #TradingView #ValhallaCore
XAU/USD: Sell on Bearish OB, Buy Deep at Bullish OB1. Context & Price Structure (M30)
• The price is in a downward correction after a strong previous increase.
• On the retracement zone, EQH + ChoCH decrease appears → signal of weakening buying flow, prioritize "retracement to sell" in the short term.
• The price is still pressed under the descending trendline, so the short-term bias remains downward until a clear break occurs.
• Support Zone 4,275 is the decisive point: if held, it will rebound technically, if broken, it opens the path to the lower demand zone.
2. Key Levels (according to the chart drawn)
• OB Bearish (Sell Zone): 4,308 – 4,312 (≈ 4,311.888) → supply zone + trendline confluence, prioritize watching for SELL when retracing.
• Support Zone: 4,272 – 4,276 (≈ 4,275.451) → central support zone, can create a rebound/retracement.
• Mid Support / Target: 4,247.624 → next target if 4,275 is broken.
• OB Bullish (Buy Zone): 4,223.400 – 4,205.983 → strong demand zone, expected to sweep and reverse.
3. Trading Plan (with clear conditions)
Scenario 1 – SELL on retracement at Bearish OB (main scenario)
• If the price retraces to 4,308 – 4,312 and a rejection reaction appears:
strong pin bar
downward engulfing
or ChoCH decreases again on M15/M30
• Then prioritize SELL according to the correction trend.
• TP1: 4,275
• TP2: 4,247
• TP3: 4,223 (approaching OB Bullish)
• Invalidation: M30 closes above 4,318 and holds above → stop SELL idea.
Scenario 2 – BUY deep at Bullish OB (important scenario to catch a large retracement)
• If the price breaks 4,275 with a clear M30 candle and slides down to 4,223 – 4,206.
• Wait for Liquidity Sweep + reversal signal:
pin bar at OB
upward engulfing
or ChoCH increases (M15/M30)
• When confirmed, prioritize BUY.
• TP1: 4,247
• TP2: 4,275
• TP3: 4,308
• Invalidation: M30 closes below 4,198 → stay out and observe.
4. Risk Management Notes
• Do not chase SELL when the price is close to 4,275 (support zone).
• Do not BUY early before the price hits Bullish OB and confirmation is received.
• If the price reclaims strongly above the trendline + 4,312, the bias will shift to "BUY pullback" instead of "Sell retracement."
XAU/USD – Distribution at the Top, Sell on Rallies Market ContexAfter a strong bullish impulse, Gold is now showing clear signs of exhaustion near the upper liquidity zone. Price failed to sustain above the recent high and has started to rotate lower, suggesting a distribution phase rather than continuation.
From a macro perspective, although expectations around Fed policy remain mixed, short-term positioning looks crowded on the buy side, increasing the probability of a corrective move to rebalance liquidity.
Technical Structure (M30–H1)
Price rejected sharply from the 4,348 supply / liquidity zone
A lower high has formed under descending trendline resistance
Market is trading below key intraday structure, signaling bearish pressure
Current price action favors a sell-the-rally approach
Trading Plan – MMF Style
Primary Scenario – SELL Continuation
Preferred SELL zone: 4,300 – 4,306
Confirmation: bearish rejection / weak bullish momentum
Targets:
TP1: 4,281
TP2: 4,269
TP3: 4,248
Extended target: 4,219 (major demand + channel support)
Invalidation
A clean break and hold above 4,348 would invalidate the short-term bearish bias.
In that case, stand aside and wait for new structure confirmation.
MMF Perspective
At premium levels, risk favors patience over chasing buys.
The focus now is on capital protection and selling rallies, waiting for price to reach deeper demand zones before considering any new bullish setups.
Bias today: Bearish below 4,348 – Sell rallies, manage risk strictly.
GOLD 4H | Liquidity Harvest Done… Now the Slide BeginsPrice engineered liquidity above the previous swing high and immediately delivered a sharp rejection, confirming a buy-side liquidity grab and the start of distribution.
Structure has now shifted bearish with a clear BOS from the premium zone. I’m expecting a mitigation leg before continuation lower.
The draw on liquidity sits inside the 4100–4080 demand imbalance, which aligns with unmitigated bullish orders from the prior accumulation phase.
If 4100 fails to hold on mitigation, the next liquidity pools rest at:
4022 (clean sell-side pocket)
3998 (final downside liquidity target)
Waiting for OB Reaction to Confirm the Next Move◆ Market Context (M30)
Price swept sell-side liquidity around 4,349–4,350 but failed to hold, indicating weakening buying pressure in premium. With a prior liquidity sweep at the lows and a bullish BOS, the current move is likely a rebalancing phase after liquidity absorption.
◆ SMC & Price Action
• Rejection after the upper sweep signals premium denial.
• The lower support zone marks the base of the prior bullish displacement (BOS base).
• OB + Fibo below act as an attraction zone for re-accumulation before direction is chosen.
◆ Key Levels
• Liquidity Sell: 4,349–4,350
• OB + Fibo (retest): 4,302–4,289
• Deeper support: 4,274
• Upper supply (if broken): 4,406
◆ Trading Scenarios
➤ Scenario A – Pullback BUY (Primary)
• Wait for a pullback into OB + Fibo 4,302–4,289
• Conditions: structure holds (no break of recent lows), bullish reaction
• Targets:
▪ 4,349
▪ Extension: 4,406
• Invalid if a clear break below 4,274
➤ Scenario B – Deeper Pullback
• If OB 4,302–4,289 is pierced
• Watch for reversal signals around 4,274
➤ Scenario C – Break & Continue (No FOMO)
• Only follow buys if price closes and holds above 4,350
• Monitor reactions at 4,406 for risk management/partials
◆ Summary
• Context: upper liquidity swept → favor pullbacks.
• Decision zone: OB + Fibo 4,302–4,289.
• Upside targets: 4,349 → 4,406.
• Avoid chasing price in premium.
Waiting for FVG / Liquidity Pullback, Trend-Following BUY Bias1. Market Context & Structure (H1)
• Gold has completed a liquidity sweep followed by a bullish BOS, confirming that the short-term uptrend remains intact.
• After the strong impulse, price is now entering a rebalancing / technical pullback phase rather than a reversal.
• The overall structure remains Higher High – Higher Low, favoring BUY strategies aligned with the dominant trend.
2. Key Technical Zones on the Chart
• Resistance / Supply Zone 1: 4,359 – 4,360
→ A previously strong reaction zone, where short-term corrections may occur.
• Resistance / Supply Zone 2: 4,394
→ Fibonacci 0.786 extension area, prone to profit-taking or upper liquidity sweeps.
• iFVG – Pullback Zone: 4,297 – 4,300
→ Inefficiency left during the bullish impulse, prioritized for the first BUY reaction.
• Liquidity Buy Zone: 4,267
→ Resting liquidity below, where a deeper sweep may occur before trend continuation.
3. Trading Scenarios – Captain Vincent Style
🔹 Primary Scenario – BUY at iFVG / Liquidity Buy (Preferred)
• Expect price to pull back from the 4,35x area toward 4,297 – 4,300 (iFVG) or deeper into 4,267 (Liquidity Buy).
• At the BUY zone, wait for confirmation signals:
– Strong rejection wicks
– Bullish engulfing
– Bullish ChoCH on M15–H1
• Preferred BUY Zones:
– BUY 1: 4,297 – 4,300
– BUY 2 (deeper): 4,267
• Targets:
– TP1: 4,359
– TP2: 4,394
– TP3 extension: continuation if 4,394 is broken.
• Invalidation:
– H1 close below 4,255 → short-term bullish structure weakens.
🔹 Secondary Scenario – Short-Term SELL Reaction at Supply
• If price rallies directly into 4,359 – 4,394 without a clear pullback, a short-term SELL reaction may appear.
• SELLs are scalp / counter-trend only, not the primary scenario.
• SELL target: pullback toward iFVG 4,297.
4. Risk & Management Notes
• Avoid FOMO BUY at high resistance zones.
• Prioritize BUY entries at discounted areas (FVG – Liquidity).
• Main bias remains BUY on pullbacks; SELLs are only technical reactions.
• Adjust position sizing carefully as the market is in an expansion phase.
XAU/USD – Bullish Trend Confirmed, Buy on PullbacksMarket Context
Gold remains firmly bullish, continuing to trade within a well-defined ascending channel. After a strong impulsive rally, the market is now entering a technical pullback phase to rebalance liquidity, which is a healthy behavior in a trending market rather than a sign of reversal.
From a macro perspective, dovish Fed expectations and the outlook for lower interest rates continue to support Gold. This keeps downside moves corrective in nature and favors trend-following BUY strategies.
Technical Structure (H1)
• Bullish structure remains intact with Higher Highs and Higher Lows
• Price is reacting at key confluence zones (trendline support + demand + Fibonacci)
• No confirmed bearish structure break at this stage
Trading Plan – MMF Style
Primary Scenario – Trend-Following BUY
• Preferred BUY zone: 4,296 – 4,292
• Stop Loss: below 4,286
Targets:
TP1: 4,327
TP2: 4,348
TP3: Extension if bullish momentum continues
→ Strategy: wait for pullbacks into key demand zones. No FOMO chasing at highs.
Alternative Scenario
• If price breaks and closes clearly below 4,241, short-term bullish structure weakens
• Stand aside and wait for a new structure confirmation
MMF Perspective
In a bullish market, the goal is not to predict the top, but to buy pullbacks at high-probability zones with favorable risk–reward.
As long as price holds above key supports, the primary bias remains BUY.
Bullish BOS Breakout, Watching Reaction at OB & Sell-Side Liquid◆ Market Context (H2)
Price has just broken a bullish BOS and closed above the previous equilibrium zone, confirming buyers are in control. After the strong impulse, the market has entered a rebalancing phase, where a short-term pullback often appears before continuation or a liquidity sweep to the upside.
◆ SMC & Price Action
• Bullish structure confirmed by consecutive BOS following the prior CHoCH.
• The 4,274 OB is the nearest demand zone where buyers previously reacted.
• Above lies sell-side liquidity at 4,355, with a further extension toward 4,408 — a potential distribution or short-term reversal zone.
• Price is currently in premium, so patience is preferred over FOMO entries.
◆ Key Levels
• Resistance / Liquidity: 4,355 → 4,408
• Support OB: 4,274
• Deeper OB: 4,217
◆ Trading Scenarios
➤ Scenario A – Pullback BUY (Primary)
• Wait for a pullback into OB 4,274
• Conditions: structure holds (no break of recent lows), bullish reaction appears
• Targets:
▪ 4,319
▪ 4,355 (Liquidity Sell)
▪ Extension: 4,408
➤ Scenario B – Break & Continue
• If price holds above 4,319 with bullish closes
• Monitor reactions at 4,355 for partial profit-taking
• Avoid chasing price in premium zones
➤ Scenario C – Deeper Pullback
• If OB 4,274 is clearly broken
• Price may retrace to OB 4,217 for re-accumulation
• Only consider BUY after a fresh bullish CHoCH
◆ Summary
• Primary trend: Bullish (BOS confirmed)
• Priority: Buy pullbacks, avoid FOMO
• Key decision zone: OB 4,274
• Upside liquidity targets: 4,355 → 4,408
XAUUSD Bullish Confirmation Buy the PullbackGold has delivered a clear bullish structure break and is currently holding firmly inside an ascending trend channel. The recent impulsive move confirms strong participation from smart money, while the current price action reflects a healthy pullback–continuation phase, not a reversal.
From a fundamental perspective, dovish Fed expectations and a lower-rate outlook continue to support Gold. This keeps downside moves corrective in nature and favors trend-following BUY setups.
📊 Market Structure & MMF Flow (H1)
• Bullish structure is confirmed with Higher Highs and Higher Lows.
• Price is retracing toward demand zones to rebalance liquidity before the next expansion.
• No bearish structure break has appeared so far.
💎 Key Levels – MMF Style
• Primary Buy Zone: 4,268
• Deep Buy Zone: 4,238 – 4,219
• Upside Targets: TP1 4,305 → TP2 4,324
🎯 Trading Scenarios
Primary Scenario – Trend BUY
Alternative Scenario – Continuation above 4,305
🧭 MMF Intraday Bias
Bullish above 4,238
Invalidation below 4,219
Market Accumulating Liquidity, Two Clear Scenarios for TodayGold continues to move within a bullish structure, but short-term order flow shows distribution inside the OBS Sell Zone 4,236. Price is currently trapped in the middle of the range, suggesting the market may need a liquidity sweep before choosing its next direction.
Fundamentally, expectations of a dovish Fed still support gold on deeper pullbacks — but intraday, the two MMF flow setups are extremely clear.
📊 Technical Outlook (MMF Flow – H1)
🔸 OBS SELL ZONE: 4,236
• Strong reaction on first touch → supply confirmed
• Downtrend line converges here → high probability of liquidity traps
🔸 OBS BUY ZONE: 4,197
• First key demand zone below
• Aligned with channel support → likely bullish reaction
🔸 Sell-side Liquidity: 4,181
• If price sweeps this area → ideal reversal point
🔸 Premium SELL Reaction Zone: 4,284
• If gold expands upward → priority area for distribution / short-term correction
🎯 Two Main MMF Scenarios
Scenario 1 – SELL reaction → BUY trend continuation
• Price retests 4,236
• Bearish reaction → pushes price toward 4,197 – 4,181
• Reversal signal appears
• Targets: 4,236 → 4,284
➡️ This is the cleanest play following today’s liquidity flow.
Scenario 2 – Direct bullish expansion
• Price breaks and closes above 4,236
• Retests this zone
• Expands toward 4,284
➡️ Requires strong bullish momentum — no confirmation, no trade.
🧭 MMF Intraday Bias
• Bullish as long as price holds above 4,197
• Neutral → Bearish only if price closes below 4,181 (failed liquidity sweep)
The market is preparing for a breakout — let liquidity do its job before choosing direction.
ChumTrades XAUUSD intraday outlookXAUUSD – Intraday Plan (M15)
Market Context
Price is currently ranging in a very tight consolidation.
Momentum is weak → market favors intraday range trading rather than chasing breakouts.
Short-term structure remains intact; focus on price reaction at key levels.
Daily Strategy
Main approach: trade the range, trade the reaction.
Buy at predefined support / Fibonacci zones, sell at clear resistance.
If a breakout occurs, wait for a retest before following the move.
Avoid entries in the middle of the range.
Key Buy Zones
4246 – 4244 (Fibo 0.5)
4236 – 4233 (Fibo 0.618)
4210 – 4208 (deep support reaction)
❌ Bullish structure invalidation:
M15 close below 4200
Key Sell Zones
4300 – 4305 (psychological resistance)
4310 (Fibonacci extension – reaction sell)
Special Notes (Friday)
No major economic news today, but it is Friday – end of week.
Price action may become choppy and unpredictable, especially during the US session (a pattern seen in recent weeks).
Risk management is key:
Focus on short-term trades
Take profits early
Avoid holding positions over the weekend
Good luck Bro !
“Support Bounce → Bullish Continuation Toward 4,245🟡 GOLD (XAU/USD) – Bullish Rejection from Support & Breakout Potential 🚀📈
🔍 Key Technical Analysis
Price respected the Support Level (4,185 – 4,190) and bounced strongly ✔️
Price is currently following an ascending Support Line → bullish structure intact 📈
Previous liquidity sweep (POI Points) shows buyers absorbing sell pressure 💰
Multiple breakouts indicate strong bullish momentum returning 🔥
Current consolidation suggests accumulation before next move up
🎯 Suggested Targets (with stickers)
Target Type Price Range Sticker
TP1 → Breakout Target 4,235 – 4,245 🎯
TP2 → Upper Expansion Zone 4,255 – 4,265 🚀💸
📌 TP1 = High-probability target
📌 TP2 = If bullish momentum continues strongly
📌 Trade Idea (Based on Chart Structure)
🟩 Buy Entry Zone:
➤ 4,195 – 4,205
🟢 Take Profit:
➤ TP1: 4,240 🎯
➤ TP2: 4,260 🚀
🧭 Market Outlook
Factor Bias
Trend Bullish above support ✔️
Liquidity Upside liquidity open 💧
Momentum Strengthening 📈
XAU/USD : Buy at OB 4,19x – 4,18x, Targets 4,24x → 4,26x 1. Market Structure (H1)
Gold is retracing back into bullish structure after breaking a series of bullish ChoCH and BoS, forming a new high around 4,24x. The current decline is only a technical pullback because:
• Price is returning to the Buy Order Block at 4,188 – 4,196.
• This zone aligns with trendline support and the demand base that fueled the previous impulse.
• The macro structure remains bullish as long as H1 does not close below 4,188.
→ This is a clear pullback–continuation setup: wait for price to retrace into discount, then target higher zones.
2. Key Levels
🔹 Demand Zone (Buy Zone): 4,188 – 4,196
• Bullish OB
• Trendline support
• Priority BUY area
🔹 Resistance 1: 4,217 – 4,218
• Multiple rejections
• Breakout → next bullish leg
🔹 Resistance 2: 4,238 – 4,239
• 0.5–0.618 Fibo confluence
• Possible mild sell reaction
🔹 Liquidity & Targets:
• 4,259 → Fibo 1.272
• 4,278 → Fibo 1.618 + resting liquidity
3. Trading Plan
🔸 Main Scenario – BUY at OB 4,19x – 4,18x
Conditions:
• Price taps 4,188 – 4,196
• Reversal signals: pin bar, engulfing, or bullish ChoCH
Targets:
TP1: 4,217
TP2: 4,238
TP3: 4,259
TP4: 4,278
Invalidation:
• H1 close below 4,185 → stay out.
🔸 Alternate Scenario – Price goes up without retesting OB
If price holds above 4,210 and breaks 4,217:
• Wait for retest of 4,217
• BUY continuation toward 4,238 → 4,259 → 4,278
Market Outlook
Gold is accumulating and building a base for a stronger breakout. The OB Buy zone 4,19x – 4,18x remains the highest-probability reversal area.
XAU/USD: Buy at OB 4.18x–4.17x; Sell on reaction.✍️ Captain Vincent – SMC Flow Analysis
📊 Market Structure (H1)
Gold continues to accumulate within the range of 4,200–4,220 after failing to break the recent peak. The structure shows:
• Multiple ChoCH – BoS declines → selling pressure still leads in the short term.
• However, the OB Buy 4,184–4,170 zone remains a crucial structural bottom, where buyers react strongly once swept.
• Above, the market leaves a Liquidity Sell area at 4,261, a natural target if gold gathers enough liquidity below.
→ The current phase is liquidity gathering before making a big move.
💎 Key Levels – Price Zones to Watch
🔸 Resistance / Sell Zone
• 4,218 → intraday resistance, price reacts multiple times.
• 4,243–4,244 → confluence of sideways peak + old BoS.
• Liquidity Sell: 4,261 → extended target if price breaks strongly upwards.
🔸 Support / Buy Zone
• 4,200–4,201 → short-term price balance zone.
• OB Buy 4,184–4,170 → strong demand, where the previous trend initiated.
• If breaking 4,170 → price may sweep deeper but remains in the ideal discount zone for BUY hunting.
🎯 Trading Plan – Clear and Easy to Follow
1️⃣ Main Scenario – Prioritize BUY at OB 4,184–4,170
Expect the market to create a sweep below 4,200, touching OB Buy to gather liquidity before bouncing up.
BUY Conditions:
• Price touches 4,184–4,170
• Reversal signals appear on M15–H1: pin bar, engulfing, rising ChoCH
• Decline slows down or buying force becomes clear
Targets:
• TP1: 4,190
• TP2: 4,200
• TP3: 4,215
• TP4 extended: 4,261 (Liquidity Sell)
Invalidation: H1 closes below 4,165 → stay out and reassess the structure.
2️⃣ Secondary Scenario – Short SELL when price retests 4.24x
If the price does not drop immediately but pulls up:
SELL Conditions:
• Retest 4,243–4,244
• Strong reaction appears: rejection wick, declining ChoCH
• Must not close H1 above 4,250
Targets:
• TP1: 4,235
• TP2: 4,225
• TP3: OB Buy 4,184–4,170
Invalidation: H1 closes above 4,250 → stop SELL, shift bias to observe breakout.
3️⃣ Extended Scenario – Sweep peak 4,261
Only activate when:
• Price bounces strongly from OB Buy
• Clear breakout of 4,243 zone
• Structure forms HL → HH
At that point, gold will tend to run straight up to sweep liquidity at 4,261 before the market chooses a new direction.
⚠️ Risk Management Notes
• Do not BUY when price is still within the resistance zone 4,218–4,243.
• SELL is only a short-term strategy, do not go against the major trend if a breakout occurs.
• OB Buy 4,184–4,170 is the zone with the highest probability of triggering an upward wave.
Price Compressing Below Trendline, Waiting for a Liquidity SweepGold continues to consolidate inside a narrow range as markets wait for fresh USD flows and upcoming Fed expectations. Sellers are losing momentum, but buyers still haven’t secured a clean breakout as price remains capped beneath the short-term descending trendline.
Current structure suggests a classic “liquidity sweep → bullish reversal” setup, with clear liquidity buildup sitting underneath the market.
📊 MMF Technical Outlook (H1)
1️⃣ Price reacting around a previous POC zone (Volume Profile)
Heavy traded area → easy for fake moves
No clean breakout above 4,218 yet
2️⃣ Key Levels – Main Setup Favors “Dip-Buy”
Important zones:
4,218 – 4,220 → Minor supply + descending trendline; breakout needed for bullish continuation
4,190 – 4,181 → Liquidity sweep zone (ideal buy area)
4,242 → Main upside target if breakout confirms
Structure shows price may dip lower first to clear liquidity before reversing upward.
🎯 MMF Daily Plan – BUY After Liquidity Sweep
▶️ Primary Scenario (High-Probability)
Wait for price to sweep liquidity into 4,190 → 4,181.
🔹 BUY Zone: 4,190 – 4,181
🔹 SL: below 4,172
🔹 TP1: 4,218
🔹 TP2: 4,242
Why this works:
Confluence: liquidity pocket + fib retracement + structural demand
MMF Flow suggests a clearing phase before bullish expansion
▶️ Secondary Scenario (Break & Retest)
If price breaks strongly above 4,218, wait for a clean retest to join the trend.
🔹 Entry: 4,218 – 4,220
🔹 TP: 4,242
🧭 MMF Bias Today
Bias: Neutral → Bullish as long as 4,180 holds
Avoid FOMO buys into 4,218 resistance
Only engage after a sweep or a clear BOS + retest






















