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Gold | Descending Triangle - Short below 1400Descending triangle pattern spotted in Gold,suggesting bearish bias. Though the base of the pattern falls on 1403, immediately below is round number 1400. Hence it is advised to initiate short only if price closes below 1400 with stop above the falling trendline and target at 1380. Manage to book some profit at 1388 if price traverse through our predicted levels.
(Disclaimer: Our charts and contents are just for the purpose of analysis, learning and general discussion. Do not consider these as trading tips or investment ideas. Trading in Stocks, Futures and Options carry risk and is not suitable for every investor. Hence it is important to do your own analysis before making any investment or trading decisions based on you personal circumstances and it is always better to take advice from professionals)
GOLD Short Term Analysis - Bearish Trend Gold pair moved higher but still remained in trading range after holding support level on Tuesday.Stronger than expected US home sales buoyed the dollar, which continued to move higher on Wednesday. As technically the Gold trading in the range of 1260 to 1285.00,Prices appear to be forming a bear flag pattern after breaking down last week below support near the 1,284 level. Short term near resistance level 1282 and another upward sloping trend line 1284. We can see one more fall from 1280 to 1284 to test 1260/1250.
Short @ 1281
TGT: 1270/1262
SL: 1286.00
Gud luck !
Ignored us now face the consequences
In short our additional full net short size in both of our precious metals is well justified from the reward and risk perspective at the time of writing this article/idea
In our previous post we already mentioned many times that friday's session can be volatile and very tricky to predict and could affect gold and silver prices in short term and that seems to be the case for silver,The white metal declined at the start of the session but quickly erased all the downswing from it's initial low,we already mentioned that white metal could reach to about 16.600 and this level has already reached but the real question is silver about take a big decline same as in lat dec 2017?
yes,that's very probable but here is a twist decline may not start immediately it can take some days to start,if you try to look at the lack of a visible rally in friday and compare it with proximity of the triangle apex reversal you will get your answer,in short we still may see a small rally in white metal in about 3-4 days before it plunges back
we were and still are in a situation where white metal metal could decline sharply immediately or it could go up just a bit and then decline anyway.we don't think waiting for better prices in gold and silver will be an informed decision ,That's why we decided to increase our net short size in our portfolio management.
in our last post we wrote which is still up to date
In friday's intrday follow up,silver moved higher than its target level but gold didn't,it served a strong bearish sign as it was clear that silver is outperforming gold in a dramatic manner in short term,most of the time it helps to make big decline in white metal.
session seems very similar to the mentioned nov 1 2017 session and implications therfore are bearish anyway
mining stocks reversal-gold mining stocks moved much lower after the closing bell,thing to note is despite the rally and strength in S&P 500 It moved lower,really miners only had the strength for the intial rally,Before the closing bell bears had took control over the miners and bulls were exhausted,
It's not happen very often when HUI index,miners and precious metals all generating the same signal,in short if you try to look at mining stock and precious metals it seems very likely that we are going to see big decline soon,only currency market is not cofirming our view at this point so it might postpone the decline for short term.
Imagine the gold without usd
you can't na? so let's jump right into our usd index the biggest factor which determines the prices of precious metals in near term,in our previous post we told that USD index was above its strong support level and big picture is remained bullish,USD index didn't even touched its support level but instead it moved higher,so did usd index already made its final bottom?
Still as a portfolio manager/ trader we try to think without being attached to our current position so we could form a unbiased perspective on precious metal market
what could go wrong-Breakdown below the 89.300 level will complete a short term head and shoulders pattern and this pushes prices down to feb low,it will means that 87.600 will be the next target but is it possible? in trading anything can but the probability is much-much lower as the multiple long term resistance level are present around the jan and feb low,on a short term head and shoulders pattern and this pushes prices down to feb low,on a short term basis a move below 89.300 can precide a quick decline to about 88.70,well this is a less likely outcome,the most probable outcome will be that we could see a rally above 91.20 which will precides a big rally to almost 94,this will be a very critical sign that small breakdown is invalidated below the very long term declining resistance
overall our full net short position is justified at the time of publishing this article
Gold got a Support !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!gold has hit the trend line finding support for the third time will this support end the downtrend
here is my outlook for gold
there is good support by the trend-line and as well as 50% fibo (1210.07)
on the uptrend targets 1249.25 and 1275.06
alternate scenario if market breaks lower of the trend line and fibo 50% , expected of a breaking down with targets 1182.58 and 1153.27
CHEERss!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!