XAU/USD – Buy Setup from Liquidity Sweep & Fibo 0.618📌 Structure Overview
• After a short-term bearish leg, price formed a sequence of ChoCH → BoS → ChoCH, signalling that selling pressure is losing momentum.
• The liquidity sweep at the 4,183 – 4,185 lows has reactivated buying interest.
• From this newly formed low, price retraced into the bearish OB above and is now correcting based on Fibonacci levels.
Overall structure leans toward accumulation – building a base before a potential recovery move.
🔍 Technical Analysis (SMC + Fibonacci)
• Key OB Zone:
The bearish OB at 4,228 – 4,241 remains a strong supply area — where price reacted on first touch.
• Fibonacci Retracement:
After the impulsive move 4,184 → 4,228, price is correcting toward standard retracement levels:
0.382
0.5
0.618
Notably: 0.618 overlaps with demand + liquidity zone → high reaction probability.
• Current Price Action:
Price is pulling back gently into the BUY zone, without forming new lower lows — confirming that selling pressure is fading.
🎯 Trade Plan – BUY Following Smart Money Flow
🟢 Primary BUY Zone: 4,184 – 4,186
✔ Confluence with Fibo 0.618
✔ Same area as liquidity sweep low
✔ Aligns with the recovery-trend demand zone
Stop Loss: Below 4,170 (clears all remaining liquidity underneath)
Short-Term Targets:
• TP1: 4,228 – first reaction zone
• TP2: 4,241 – bearish OB
• TP3 (extended): 4,256 – 4,258
Alternative Scenario:
If price breaks 4,241 convincingly and closes above it on M30 → bullish continuation is confirmed → extended targets at 4,270 – 4,280.
📌 Important Notes
• Avoid FOMO buying in the middle of the range; wait for demand + Fibo reaction.
• When price reaches 4,228 – 4,241, consider partial profits to protect gains.
• Structure becomes invalid only if price breaks below 4,170.
💬 Conclusion
Short-term bias favours a bullish pullback, with an optimal BUY setup around 4,184 – 4,186. If this zone holds, gold has room to extend its recovery towards 4,241 → 4,256+.
