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Sunday Prep 8/22 - $ARKKThis was in the Sunday Prep 2 weeks ago for a short and so far it’s come in quite nicely. Would prefer pops back into resistance to hammer short, but if we were to break 113.27 I would probably start shorting pops joining trend. Michael Burry recently came out publicly about being short this and if I had to pick between him and Cathie Wood, it’s really a no-brainer. Love to know that the king of due diligence says that the fundamentals match what I’m seeing in the chart. LFG!!!
AMEX:ARKKShort
by TrueTraderOfficial
Sunday Prep 8/22 - $XLE - Want to short bounce on energy namesOne thing that is important to point out is the fact that each weak I look at all the different sector ETFs to see their charts. Just because something had a down week doesn’t mean that I’m not interested in it. Look at the Financial sector for example. They were down over 2% for the week. But then look at the $XLF chart. You can see it’s really just pulled back to support and is still looking very bullish. Contrast that with the Energy sector via the XLE chart. This is a completely broken chart in my opinion. But that doesn’t necessarily mean I want to short energy names this week. Something this sold off may need a nice relief bounce first. So I have alerts set for when the XLE pushes back into the underside of the daily 20sma. THEN I might be looking for shorts on energy names.
AMEX:XLEShort
by TrueTraderOfficial
BUY OPPORTUNITY TLT is a fund that reflects the price of bonds with a maturity of 20 years. It reflects the price of the bonds but not the yield which is inversely proportional to the price. When the interest rate increases the price decreases while when the interest rate decreases the price increases in value. It is a highly protective asset that helps diversify portfolio risk. It has a long-term bullish statistical bias and is particularly tempting to place in a portfolio. By statistically analyzing the price history (2003 - today) we can consider ourselves in a position of extreme advantage at this moment. During the entire life cycle of the product we can see how the historical maximum drawdown has never exceeded -28% in 800 days. On average, during each drawdown this asset loses 22% of its value in 650 days (approximately). The recovery period (period during which the market recovers the lost ground) is equal to 0.45. This means that on average it takes half the time to recover its losses compared to the time it takes to depreciate. From March 2020 to today it has been within a maximum distance of -25% from the maximum price, exceeding 500 days in drawdown. Statistically we are in a situation where the chances of further loss of value are very low (in your entire life you have never lost more than 28%). Following the statistical model, it is likely that it will recover its value in less than a year. If we assume that we are close to a minimum level and that the long term is characterized by a strong upward statistical bias, combined with the fact that the world economic situation is still far from an official recovery and that it will have to wait a little longer before to raise rates, positioning on $TLT is an excellent medium / long term opportunity for part of the core structure of my portfolio. Let's analyze the data: - Standard Deviation 10Y = 0.90% - Standard Deviation 5Y = 0.87% - Standard Deviation 3Y = 0.83% The riskiness of the product decreased by about 10% from 2010 to today. - 10Y yield = + 7% - 5Y yield = + 3% - 3Y yield = + 8% - YTD yield = - 10% The returns are positive in the medium / long term and negative in the short term (-10% from the beginning of the year). Correlation: Instrument inversely correlated with the unemployment rate. As the unemployment rate increases, the value of the instrument decreases and vice versa. If we assume that the US is slowly returning to pre-employment at the pre-Covid19 level (thus the unemployment rate is decreasing over time) then we can assume that our tool will appreciate in the medium / long term. - 3Y Expected Return: + 21% - Max loss (with hedging): 5% - Max portfolio loss (in the event that the outcome of this core transaction does not go according to estimates): -0,75% - % of equity to be dedicated to this operation: 15% of the total portfolio + 7.5% for any hedging = 22.5% of the total portfolio - Risk /Return = 1:4 Over time, three different situations can arise: A) Closing the long trade at a loss and closing the hedge in profit, then: - Potential loss% on the portfolio: - 0.75% B) Closing the hedging at a loss and profit of the long operation, then: - Potential gain% on the portfolio: + 2.25% C) There is no need for the hedging strategy and the instrument meets expectations, then: - Potential gain% on the portfolio: + 3% Remember that this is my market vision and should not be interpreted in any way as an investment advice!
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by UnknownUnicorn25541012
INDY/EEM Reaching All Time HighsINDY/EEM relative strength chart is reaching its all time high since the introduction of INDY ETF in Nov' 2009. Background info: INDY is the Nifty 50 ETF trading on NASDAQ which mimics the Nifty 50 index. EEM is the MSCI Emerging Markets ETF which invests funds in emerging markets such as China, India, Hong Kong, South Korea, South-east Asia etc. INDY has been rising sharply against EEM thanks to a) Nifty breaching all-time highs and b) Chinese stocks being beaten due to Chinese regulations against their ed-tech companies last month. Will the INDY/EEM break out from its all time highs or will this resistance lead to a drag in the INDY vis-a-vis the EEM as it did in 2019? We will be watching the price action.
NASDAQ:INDYEducation
by vipulmehta817
TRADING & INVESTING - PART 6 - MF Contd.In this part, I will share my experience with MF investments in greater detail, what worked for me and what did not and where I stand today as regards MF, and finally, what I propose to do in the time to come. Regardless of the time or the year in which you are reading this series, the basic principles would remain the same only the finer points would have undergone some changes to keep pace with the changing times. My MF Investments As I have mentioned earlier, I am a disciplined person in terms of money management. In the olden days, dividends or interest warrants used to be received via postal mail, and depending upon the time of the receipt of the mail, I used to immediately walk over to the bank - 15-20 minutes away and deposit the cheque over the counter, get the acknowledgment and file it safely. Given the above traits developed from my school-college days, I started whatever amount was possible for me to save into MF after I was introduced to India Infoline Ltd. I had a good RM who used to keep me informed on more than once a week basis and I used to follow his guidance in making new investments. One very important thing I did was that I never withdrew any amount from any of these investments and used it for consumption or any unproductive asset. As I kept evolving, I realized that some MFs stall after a period of a few years and then do not give that much incremental return than the earlier years. I used to exit the profit portion of such MFs and place them in NFOs of sectors that were in the running or were the hot picks. The above process helped the gains compound over a period of time and I followed this process at least twice in a year. Another point I used to do as far as new funds investments were that as and when an MF scheme used to announce that it would declare a dividend of X%, I used to buy the scheme’s units, get the dividend income, and invariably, once the NAV used to go ex-dividend, it used to go even lower than that and at that time, I used to reinvest the dividend amount received in the same scheme. After a certain period of time, the NAVs used to be back up and way above the exit level, and thus, I was able to not only compound my investments in my unique way. My RM was also surprised with the approach and he then started recommending it to his other clients. I was fortunate that almost the entire suite of MFs that I had invested in worked well for me and some of them I am still holding as there is no reason for me to exit - the investments have given me excellent returns over a long period of time that my capital has become “free” or I am using the market money to stay invested. Now, no more MF investments for me However, I have stopped making any new investments in MF for the last 3 years as I have during the last 3 years, become active in the stock market and have realized the famous response that the legendary trader Paul Tudor Jones gave to a question - Where would you prefer to invest your spare funds? His answer -- There is no better place than investing in my own fund/schemes or strategies as there was no better fund manager for his funds than he himself. Initially, I thought it was a bit arrogant, but over a period of time, I have realized that what he said makes more than 100% sense as there is no one on the earth who understands my money better than myself. So, I now make my own investments in terms of positional traders' indirect equity and manage them in line with risk and money management principles. It is only when I feel that the funds that have been released from direct equity cannot be deployed in the market either because there are no suitable opportunities per my approach or the market is not conducive, I park such funds in to debt or liquid funds from where money can be removed and credited to the demat ledger in 1 working day. Another type of investment This is something that is somewhat complex so I will avoid the discussion at this stage and would take it up as the last part of the series. I hope you have found this part to be insightful and in case you have any questions or queries, please do not hesitate to ask. Thank you & Happy Investing, Umesh 8-8-21 P.S. Disclaimer - The views expressed here are purely for educational and informational purposes only and not a recommendation or advice in any manner. I am not a SEBI regd., so please consult your financial advisor or be your own decision-maker as you may deem fit.
BSE:NIFTYBEES
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT