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Sunday Prep 8/22 - $ARKKThis was in the Sunday Prep 2 weeks ago for a short and so far it’s come in quite nicely. Would prefer pops back into resistance to hammer short, but if we were to break 113.27 I would probably start shorting pops joining trend. Michael Burry recently came out publicly about being short this and if I had to pick between him and Cathie Wood, it’s really a no-brainer. Love to know that the king of due diligence says that the fundamentals match what I’m seeing in the chart. LFG!!!
AMEX:ARKKShort
by TrueTraderOfficial
Sunday Prep 8/22 - $XLE - Want to short bounce on energy namesOne thing that is important to point out is the fact that each weak I look at all the different sector ETFs to see their charts. Just because something had a down week doesn’t mean that I’m not interested in it. Look at the Financial sector for example. They were down over 2% for the week. But then look at the $XLF chart. You can see it’s really just pulled back to support and is still looking very bullish. Contrast that with the Energy sector via the XLE chart. This is a completely broken chart in my opinion. But that doesn’t necessarily mean I want to short energy names this week. Something this sold off may need a nice relief bounce first. So I have alerts set for when the XLE pushes back into the underside of the daily 20sma. THEN I might be looking for shorts on energy names.
AMEX:XLEShort
by TrueTraderOfficial
BUY OPPORTUNITY TLT is a fund that reflects the price of bonds with a maturity of 20 years. It reflects the price of the bonds but not the yield which is inversely proportional to the price. When the interest rate increases the price decreases while when the interest rate decreases the price increases in value. It is a highly protective asset that helps diversify portfolio risk. It has a long-term bullish statistical bias and is particularly tempting to place in a portfolio. By statistically analyzing the price history (2003 - today) we can consider ourselves in a position of extreme advantage at this moment. During the entire life cycle of the product we can see how the historical maximum drawdown has never exceeded -28% in 800 days. On average, during each drawdown this asset loses 22% of its value in 650 days (approximately). The recovery period (period during which the market recovers the lost ground) is equal to 0.45. This means that on average it takes half the time to recover its losses compared to the time it takes to depreciate. From March 2020 to today it has been within a maximum distance of -25% from the maximum price, exceeding 500 days in drawdown. Statistically we are in a situation where the chances of further loss of value are very low (in your entire life you have never lost more than 28%). Following the statistical model, it is likely that it will recover its value in less than a year. If we assume that we are close to a minimum level and that the long term is characterized by a strong upward statistical bias, combined with the fact that the world economic situation is still far from an official recovery and that it will have to wait a little longer before to raise rates, positioning on $TLT is an excellent medium / long term opportunity for part of the core structure of my portfolio. Let's analyze the data: - Standard Deviation 10Y = 0.90% - Standard Deviation 5Y = 0.87% - Standard Deviation 3Y = 0.83% The riskiness of the product decreased by about 10% from 2010 to today. - 10Y yield = + 7% - 5Y yield = + 3% - 3Y yield = + 8% - YTD yield = - 10% The returns are positive in the medium / long term and negative in the short term (-10% from the beginning of the year). Correlation: Instrument inversely correlated with the unemployment rate. As the unemployment rate increases, the value of the instrument decreases and vice versa. If we assume that the US is slowly returning to pre-employment at the pre-Covid19 level (thus the unemployment rate is decreasing over time) then we can assume that our tool will appreciate in the medium / long term. - 3Y Expected Return: + 21% - Max loss (with hedging): 5% - Max portfolio loss (in the event that the outcome of this core transaction does not go according to estimates): -0,75% - % of equity to be dedicated to this operation: 15% of the total portfolio + 7.5% for any hedging = 22.5% of the total portfolio - Risk /Return = 1:4 Over time, three different situations can arise: A) Closing the long trade at a loss and closing the hedge in profit, then: - Potential loss% on the portfolio: - 0.75% B) Closing the hedging at a loss and profit of the long operation, then: - Potential gain% on the portfolio: + 2.25% C) There is no need for the hedging strategy and the instrument meets expectations, then: - Potential gain% on the portfolio: + 3% Remember that this is my market vision and should not be interpreted in any way as an investment advice!
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by UnknownUnicorn25541012
INDY/EEM Reaching All Time HighsINDY/EEM relative strength chart is reaching its all time high since the introduction of INDY ETF in Nov' 2009. Background info: INDY is the Nifty 50 ETF trading on NASDAQ which mimics the Nifty 50 index. EEM is the MSCI Emerging Markets ETF which invests funds in emerging markets such as China, India, Hong Kong, South Korea, South-east Asia etc. INDY has been rising sharply against EEM thanks to a) Nifty breaching all-time highs and b) Chinese stocks being beaten due to Chinese regulations against their ed-tech companies last month. Will the INDY/EEM break out from its all time highs or will this resistance lead to a drag in the INDY vis-a-vis the EEM as it did in 2019? We will be watching the price action.
NASDAQ:INDYEducation
by vipulmehta817
TRADING & INVESTING - PART 6 - MF Contd.In this part, I will share my experience with MF investments in greater detail, what worked for me and what did not and where I stand today as regards MF, and finally, what I propose to do in the time to come. Regardless of the time or the year in which you are reading this series, the basic principles would remain the same only the finer points would have undergone some changes to keep pace with the changing times. My MF Investments As I have mentioned earlier, I am a disciplined person in terms of money management. In the olden days, dividends or interest warrants used to be received via postal mail, and depending upon the time of the receipt of the mail, I used to immediately walk over to the bank - 15-20 minutes away and deposit the cheque over the counter, get the acknowledgment and file it safely. Given the above traits developed from my school-college days, I started whatever amount was possible for me to save into MF after I was introduced to India Infoline Ltd. I had a good RM who used to keep me informed on more than once a week basis and I used to follow his guidance in making new investments. One very important thing I did was that I never withdrew any amount from any of these investments and used it for consumption or any unproductive asset. As I kept evolving, I realized that some MFs stall after a period of a few years and then do not give that much incremental return than the earlier years. I used to exit the profit portion of such MFs and place them in NFOs of sectors that were in the running or were the hot picks. The above process helped the gains compound over a period of time and I followed this process at least twice in a year. Another point I used to do as far as new funds investments were that as and when an MF scheme used to announce that it would declare a dividend of X%, I used to buy the scheme’s units, get the dividend income, and invariably, once the NAV used to go ex-dividend, it used to go even lower than that and at that time, I used to reinvest the dividend amount received in the same scheme. After a certain period of time, the NAVs used to be back up and way above the exit level, and thus, I was able to not only compound my investments in my unique way. My RM was also surprised with the approach and he then started recommending it to his other clients. I was fortunate that almost the entire suite of MFs that I had invested in worked well for me and some of them I am still holding as there is no reason for me to exit - the investments have given me excellent returns over a long period of time that my capital has become “free” or I am using the market money to stay invested. Now, no more MF investments for me However, I have stopped making any new investments in MF for the last 3 years as I have during the last 3 years, become active in the stock market and have realized the famous response that the legendary trader Paul Tudor Jones gave to a question - Where would you prefer to invest your spare funds? His answer -- There is no better place than investing in my own fund/schemes or strategies as there was no better fund manager for his funds than he himself. Initially, I thought it was a bit arrogant, but over a period of time, I have realized that what he said makes more than 100% sense as there is no one on the earth who understands my money better than myself. So, I now make my own investments in terms of positional traders' indirect equity and manage them in line with risk and money management principles. It is only when I feel that the funds that have been released from direct equity cannot be deployed in the market either because there are no suitable opportunities per my approach or the market is not conducive, I park such funds in to debt or liquid funds from where money can be removed and credited to the demat ledger in 1 working day. Another type of investment This is something that is somewhat complex so I will avoid the discussion at this stage and would take it up as the last part of the series. I hope you have found this part to be insightful and in case you have any questions or queries, please do not hesitate to ask. Thank you & Happy Investing, Umesh 8-8-21 P.S. Disclaimer - The views expressed here are purely for educational and informational purposes only and not a recommendation or advice in any manner. I am not a SEBI regd., so please consult your financial advisor or be your own decision-maker as you may deem fit.
BSE:NIFTYBEES
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
TRADING VS INVESTING PART 5 - Investing In Mutual FundsThis is the classical form of Investing that we may have come across as a complete novice to the concept of investing or investments. Even my introduction to the world of investing was done through the Mutual Funds or MF route. I was aware of the share market but had no clue about it, but due to my interest in making money and thanks to my childhood habits of Savings I was interested in anything that helped me see the money grow. So when I started earning, but also had some amount that could be spared, I started looking at the various options where I could invest the funds. Even though I am using the term funds, my investments were not exceeding 1,000-2,000 per tranche and that also looked big to me as those were the days - early 2000. I accidentally came across an office of India Infoline and I met someone who was in the original team that was involved in set up and is now having his own MF distribution business. He suggested that I make an investment of 1,000 in an MF scheme and the money is likely to double in a few years. Those days, Indira Vikas Patra and Kisan Vikas Patra were very popular forms of investments as after a certain number of years the money used to double. Also, these investments were made via Post Offices which meant Govt backed and the money was safe. Later on, I realized that IVPs were like a currency note at that time and the bearer could encash the same if s/he so desired. So it was a refreshing change to see some other instrument also giving an opportunity to make money grow like IVP-KVP and that is how I started my journey with the MF. If my memory serves right, it was either the Aditya Birla MF or some well-known fund house. So I felt that the money was secure and that there was no issue with the capital that I had invested. Irrespective of the amount, for every investor, the capital investment is always priceless. MFs have since come a long way and I have also evolved as an Investor. The fund houses have record-breaking collections from the retail investors, but thanks to my experience, I have realized the hard way that the caption - MF Sahi Hai, is not always the case. The blind faith with which I had invested thousands of rupees initially was all in good faith as with God’s grace, no casualties were experienced by me in respect of the investments made by me except that some depleted in value on account of whatever reasons. On account of my involvement in the stock market in the last few years, I have realized that MFs are actually a more dangerous form of investment than investing in stocks of companies that are known to us. The reasons are simple -- As a retail investors, we may not have an idea about who actually manages our money. As a retail investor, we do not get to know when exactly the Fund Manager invested in the shares of various companies so we do not know if he ended up buying at the bottom or at the top of the rally. As a retail investors, we do not have access to various types of information that may be getting used in the Fund Manager making a decision to invest in a direct equity market or a bond market or Govt backed securities or in the debt market or in the direct corporate lending. As a retail investors, we also lack the bandwidth to read, understand and interpret all the data that may be available for our consumption. In most cases, we may not be even competent to perform such an analysis. The latest instance of Franklin Templeton debt fund - where the investment went astray and the unitholders ended up receiving only a part of the capital. Unfortunately, based on the track record of the Fund House, I had parked some amount temporarily in one such scheme and ended up booking a good amount of long-term capital loss just a few days ago. Given the above, I have come to believe that unless you have absolute knowledge of the MF industry, it is best to invest where you understand things or at least where you can track the value of your investments on at least once a week basis. No doubt investing is a long-term play, but the times have changed and if you simply ignore the investments made and let them follow a Buy & Hold approach, you may also end up incurring a loss like how I ended up. In my case, just 2 days ago, I had spoken to someone who knew the issues that FT may be facing and had moved part of my investments in it to some other schemes . I forgot to realize that I had also made a part investment in the same scheme on my own and when I informed him, it was too late. Instead of such MF investments, I prefer direct equity investments as I get to choose the company in which I would like to invest and there are many ways to invest in direct equity which we will cover in the posts that follow. If you have not yet one of the best ways to get started in the world of Investing - voa the IPO way, please go through the part of this series that relates to Investing Via the IPO route. I will talk some more about MF in the next part before concluding it and please be rest assured, I am not here to advertise direct equity as I have also immensely benefited from the MF investments made by me and more about that in the next part. Thank you & Happy Investing! Umesh 01-08-21 P.S. Disclaimer - The views expressed here are purely for educational and informational purposes only and not a recommendation or advice in any manner. I am not a SEBI regd., so please consult your financial advisor or be your own decision-maker as you may deem fit.
K
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
TRADING Vs INVESTING - PART 4 - SOUND INVESTING METHODSIn the earlier part, we talked about the IPO route to invest and earn listing gains and then letting the profits turn into possibly a good long-term investment - the subject of course to the ever-elusive allotment being honored by the company in question. For example, I did not get an allotment of Zomato Shares and lost the opportunity to lock in 80%+ listing gains. Those who read and watched the video and of those who were lucky to have been allotted; would have made good gains. However, not everything can be left to lady luck. We can develop a process that suits us well and aim for the long-term goals of building wealth via investment and also generate a good amount of dividend income. And if the company in due course may also reward via bonus/splits/buy-back, it would be an added advantage. Contrary to some beliefs, it is possible to make money grow by being actively away from the stock market as well. How is this possible and where do I then end up investing? If you Google it, you will find several avenues of investment so I will let you do that at your convenience. My focus is on activating your mind on how you could find your approach in the instruments that I believe are good for investment and long-term appreciation. This is how I would have approached investing if I was around 30-35 years of age : Invest in ETFs Nifty Bank Nifty Gold Invest in Nifty Bees, Bank Bees. Invest in PPF, NPS. Invest in stocks of companies that manufacture / are involved in items of daily consumption. Invest in stocks of companies that have a bright future on account of some actions that they propose to take - Electric Vehicles. Invest in Medicine / Pharma and related companies. Invest in IT companies. Invest in companies that pay regular dividends and the return in better than that of FDs. Invest in instruments that are now opening up to the retail investors . Invest in a start-up that is run by someone you know very well - remember, personal relationships and investor-start-up relationships should be managed well. I have not included Mutual Funds as it is known to all. Please remember that MF investments are also subject to market risks and there is no fixed return. The above investments could be made by way of: Systematic Investment Plan or SIP By way of lump-sum purchases. Top-up the SIPs by way of ad-hoc investments at an appropriate time - even though I have mentioned this, there is no right time to make an investment. From what I know, via the Zerodha broking platform, it is possible to “gift” all exchange-traded instruments. So the next time you want to gift someone on an occasion, think of helping him/her get started on investing by gifting something that will help the recipient. I encourage you to spend some time on knowing more about each of the above so that you familiarize yourself with the instruments/opportunities. Although there are many well-qualified and competent Financial Advisors, I believe that there is no one better than me who knows how important my capital is to me. So take the best step to be your own CFO and in due course of time, you will be suitably rewarded for the actions taken by you. The above is good for this week. I will be back with some more inputs next week. I would love to read your feedback and if you have something interesting to share, please feel free to do so for the benefit of all readers. Thank you & Happy Investing! Umesh
BSE:NIFTYBEES
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
An Amazing investment opportunity with a CAGR of 40-50% !!!" MIRAE NYSE FANG+ index ETF " is an ETF that will track the NYSE FANG+ index which tracks WORLD'S BIGGEST 10 COMPANIES. The FANG+ Index is composed of 10 equally weighted technology stocks—Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Alphabet, Alibaba, Baidu, Nvidia, Tesla and Twitter. All the 10 stocks have equal weightage i.e 10%. 1)This index has delivered a return of 46.8% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the past five years in rupee terms. In other words, a rupee invested in the index would have multiplied almost seven times in five years. 2) The ETF has an expense ratio of 0.33% which is very low. 3) This is an awesome opportunity for Indian investors to invest in the international market and the world's greatest innovators. Also, it will help in diversifying the portfolio of investors. 4) These 10 companies have a market cap of $7.7 trillion—nearly three times the Indian market; and revenues of $1.09 trillion—3x of the Indian government’s total receipts. 5) Indian investors will also get the benefit of rupee depreciation. 6) If we talk about the risk on paper terms, since it is a concentrated portfolio so definitely there is a risk. But in my view, if we don't invest in the world's top 10 companies and invest it somewhere else then there is more risk!! These all companies are high growth companies and will continue to grow and innovate in the coming years as well. So definitely, it is worth investing. ETF is available on NSE with code MAFANG.
NSE:MAFANGEducation
by TradingWithRahul