Part 3 Trading Master Class With ExpertsTypes of Option Traders
Different traders use options for different purposes. Here’s how:
Speculators – Trade options to profit from short-term market moves.
Hedgers – Use options to protect their existing investments (like insurance).
Income Traders – Sell options regularly to collect premium income.
Arbitrageurs – Exploit price differences between spot and derivatives markets.
For example, a portfolio manager holding stocks may buy put options to safeguard against sudden market falls. Meanwhile, a retail trader may sell call options to earn regular premium income.
Futures market
Part 1 Trading Master Class With ExpertsBasic Terminology in Option Trading
Before diving deep, let’s get familiar with key terms used in options:
Call Option – Gives the buyer the right (not obligation) to buy the underlying asset at a certain price before expiry.
Put Option – Gives the buyer the right (not obligation) to sell the underlying asset at a certain price before expiry.
Strike Price – The fixed price at which the option holder can buy (for calls) or sell (for puts) the underlying asset.
Premium – The price paid to buy the option contract. This is the cost of obtaining the right.
Expiry Date – The date when the option contract expires. After this, the contract becomes invalid.
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD (10/10/2025)
________________________________________
🔹 1. Momentum
In the October 9th plan, based on H1 momentum and wave structure, I anticipated a strong bearish move, which indeed occurred during yesterday’s late session.
D1 Momentum:
Currently turning downward, meaning the main trend in the coming sessions remains bearish to bring D1 momentum into the oversold zone.
H4 Momentum:
Now showing signs of reversal from the oversold area, suggesting that a short-term recovery wave may appear soon.
H1 Momentum:
Currently approaching the oversold zone, so within the next 1–2 hours, a minor corrective upward move could take place.
________________________________________
🔹 2. Wave Structure
D1 Wave Structure:
We can now see a confirmed bearish reversal candle, whose body is larger than previous bearish candles.
This indicates that the yellow wave ⑤ has likely completed, and I expect a deeper corrective move to unfold — potentially reaching the 3700 area.
H4 Wave Structure:
As mentioned yesterday, we use the price channel for observation, and now the price has closed back inside the channel.
This gives us additional confirmation that wave ⑤ has completed.
With H4 momentum preparing to turn upward, the market is likely to form a corrective upward wave on this timeframe.
H1 Wave Structure:
Currently, a blue ABC correction has formed after yesterday’s strong decline.
Notably, wave C is twice the length of wave A, showing that the panic selling yesterday may have exhausted the sellers.
Combining this with the H4 momentum reversal, it suggests a potential upward move ahead.
Furthermore, after a complete ABC structure, according to Elliott theory, the market often forms another ABC pattern or a 5-wave structure in the opposite direction,
→ therefore, we will now look for Buy opportunities.
________________________________________
🔹 3. Liquidity Zones
Observing the liquidity areas on the chart, there are two key zones to focus on:
• 3953
• 3933
These are the two zones where we will look for Buy setups.
Yesterday’s oversold decline (an irregular wave C) suggests, by Elliott principles, that a strong rebound from the 0.618 retracement up to the previous high is likely —
this will be important for determining our Take-Profit levels.
________________________________________
🔹 4. Trading Plan
Buy Zone 1:
• Entry: 3956 – 3953
• SL: 3943
• TP: 3989
Buy Zone 2:
• Entry: 3934 – 3931
• SL: 3922
• TP: 3953
________________________________________
💡 Note:
This rebound is a technical correction after an oversold sell-off, so it’s recommended to monitor price reaction near TP and consider moving SL to breakeven to secure profits.
Gold 1H – Price Reaction Ahead of U.S. CPI DataXAUUSD – Intraday Trading Plan | by Ryan_TitanTrader
________________________________________
📈 Market Context
Gold prices remain steady around $3,975, as traders await the U.S. CPI data release later today — a key event that could shape expectations for the Fed’s next rate move.
If inflation cools, the dovish sentiment may boost gold’s safe-haven appeal; however, a hotter CPI print could trigger renewed dollar strength and short-term pressure on XAUUSD.
Market volatility is expected to spike near the release, so liquidity grabs and false breaks are likely before the true direction forms.
________________________________________
🔎 Technical Analysis (H1 / SMC Style)
• The recent Change of Character (ChoCH) confirms short-term bearish control after breaking the bullish structure near 4017.
• FVG Sell Zone (4015–4017) aligns with premium imbalance and prior liquidity — ideal for short setups if price retests that zone.
• BOS to the downside was confirmed at 3960, showing sellers in control.
• The discount zone 3908–3910 is a strong demand area where buyers may step in after liquidity sweep below 3910.
________________________________________
🟢 Buy Zone: 3908–3910
SL: 3900
TP targets: 3920 → 3940 → 3960+
🔴 Sell Zone: 4015–4017
SL: 4022
TP targets: 4000 → 3985 → 3970
________________________________________
⚠️ Risk Management Tips
• Wait for M15 ChoCH / BOS confirmation before entering either side.
• Use partial position sizing around CPI release — volatility may cause large wicks.
• Watch for liquidity hunts near 3980–3990 before CPI, then confirm structure direction.
________________________________________
✅ Summary
Gold is consolidating below key resistance while awaiting U.S. inflation data.
Smart money may engineer a liquidity sweep toward 4015–4017 (FVG) before resuming the bearish leg into 3910.
However, if CPI comes in softer than expected, buyers may defend 3908–3910, sparking a recovery back toward 3980+.
🔔 Stay alert around CPI release hours — expect manipulative price action and confirm structure breaks before committing to directional trades.
XAUUSD – Breakdown After Ceasefire & Fed Comments📉 Market Overview
Gold (XAUUSD) dropped over 2%, sliding from $4,012/oz to $3,945/oz, marking a sharp $67 decline overnight.
The selloff came as two key catalysts hit the market:
🕊 Israel–Hamas ceasefire agreement cooled down geopolitical tensions.
💬 Fed’s Barr pushed back against October rate cuts, sending USD higher and pressuring gold.
Despite the drop, price action suggests a temporary corrective phase, with gold now stabilising near a short-term support zone.
📊 Technical Structure (MMFLOW View)
Gold has confirmed a Head & Shoulders (H&S) breakdown pattern, with a neckline retest around $4,014 – $4,033 acting as resistance.
After the breakdown, price rebounded slightly but continues to trade below the structure, showing that bears remain in control short-term.
The short-term support zone sits around $3,945, and if broken, could accelerate the decline towards $3,912 – $3,885, aligning with deeper liquidity areas.
🔑 Key Zones to Watch
Resistance (Breakdown Zone): 4,014 – 4,033
Support (Short-term): 3,945 – 3,912
Liquidity/Buy Zone: 3,885 – 3,878
💡 MMFLOW Trading Scenarios
🔵 BUY SCALP Zone: 3,912 – 3,910
🔴 Stop Loss: 3,905
✅ Take Profit: 3,916 – 3,920 – 3,925 – 3,930 – 3,940 – 3,950 – ???
Trading View:
The market is still digesting recent fundamentals; volatility remains high.
A short-term rebound from 3,910 is possible as liquidity builds up near this demand zone.
However, unless price reclaims 4,014, any bounce may only be corrective before further downside continuation.
🧭 MMFLOW Insight
Even though gold faces bearish momentum, macro risks still support a long-term bullish narrative:
U.S. government shutdown risks remain unresolved.
Fed may turn dovish later in Q4 if labour data weakens.
Liquidity gaps below $3,900 could attract smart money accumulation zones.
⚠️ Trading Notes
✅ Always set Stop Loss – NFP-style volatility can occur post-Fed comments.
✅ Avoid chasing after breakdown candles. Wait for pullback entries at key levels.
✅ Be patient — the best setups form when liquidity is fully absorbed.
📍 Summary
Gold continues to trade under pressure after geopolitical easing and hawkish Fed tones.
Watch for price action around $3,910 – $3,945; this range will likely define the next major impulse.
Stay alert — once liquidity clears, MMFlow will be watching for smart-money reentry signals from key OB/CP zones.
INDUSINDBK 1 Week Time FrameKey Technical Indicators:
Oscillators: Neutral
Moving Averages: Strong Buy
Overall Technical Rating: Neutral
Support and Resistance Levels:
Weekly Pivot Points:
Support: 739.63
Resistance: 766.72
Additional Insights:
Relative Strength Index (RSI): The 14-day RSI is at 70.368, suggesting the stock is approaching overbought conditions, which may indicate a potential pullback
Moving Averages: The 5-day moving average is 755.54, and the 50-day moving average is 744.63, both indicating a bullish trend
Conclusion:
While the overall technical rating is neutral, the price action above the weekly pivot point and the bullish moving averages suggest a potential for upward movement. However, the elevated RSI indicates caution, as the stock may be due for a correction. Traders should monitor these levels closely and consider the broader market conditions before making trading decisions.
SBIN 1 Hour Time Frame 📈 1-Hour Time Frame Technical Overview
On the 1-hour chart, the technical indicators for SBIN futures are as follows:
Moving Averages: Strong Buy
Oscillators: Neutral
Overall Technical Rating: Strong Buy
This suggests a bullish short-term trend, with moving averages indicating upward momentum.
🔄 Key Levels to Watch
Based on recent intraday analysis, the following levels are noteworthy:
Resistance Levels: ₹880.88
Support Levels: ₹863.38
These levels can serve as potential entry or exit points for traders.
📊 Additional Insights
Open Interest: Approximately 94.62 million contracts, indicating active participation.
Volume: Around 13.07 million contracts traded, reflecting healthy liquidity.
WIPRO 1 Day Time Frame 📈 Current Price & Trend
Price: ₹250.50
Day's Range: ₹246.26 – ₹250.63
Previous Close: ₹246.20
Change: +1.62%
🔍 Technical Indicators
RSI (14): 78.90 (Overbought)
MACD: 1.86 (Bullish)
ADX: 46.59 (Strong Trend)
CCI (14): 237.19 (Overbought)
Moving Averages: All major MAs (5, 10, 20, 50, 100, 200) are in a "Strong Buy" position
📊 Key Levels
Support: ₹242, ₹240, ₹230
Resistance: ₹255, ₹260, ₹265
52-Week High: ₹324.60 (July 2, 2025)
✅ Outlook
The technical indicators suggest a strong bullish momentum. However, with the RSI indicating overbought conditions, a short-term pullback could occur. A sustained move above ₹255 could target ₹265–₹270 in the short term
GOLD (XAUUSD) 1H CHART ANALYSIS – BEARISH SETUP AHEADGOLD (XAUUSD) 1H CHART ANALYSIS – BEARISH SETUP AHEAD
🔍 Technical Overview
Current Price: Around $4,036 – $4,040
Trendline: A key uptrend line (blue) has been broken, signaling weakening bullish momentum.
Resistance Zone: Between $4,058 – $4,062, marked by red arrows 🚫
Support Zone: Near $3,930 – $3,940, highlighted by the purple box 🟪
📊 Market Structure
The market recently made a lower high formation after failing to break above $4,062, indicating bearish divergence.
Multiple rejection candles at the resistance zone confirm selling pressure 💣.
The blue projection lines suggest a potential bearish retracement back toward the support zone around $3,930.
🧭 Key Levels
Type Price Level Notes
🔺 Resistance 4,058 – 4,062 Double top zone, strong sellers present
⚖️ Mid-Level 4,000 Psychological round number, interim support
🟣 Support 3,930 – 3,940 Major buying interest, possible reversal zone
📉 Expected Price Action
🔻 Scenario 1 (Primary):
Price may retest $4,050 – $4,060 resistance area, form another rejection, and drop toward $3,940 support.
Potential short entry near $4,050 – $4,060
Target $3,940
Stop loss above $4,070
🔄 Scenario 2 (Alternative):
If the price holds above $4,060, a breakout could trigger a bullish continuation toward $4,100+.
🧠 Trader’s Insight
⚠️ Bearish bias remains valid while below $4,060.
🕒 Watch for price reaction around the trendline retest and confirmation candles (bearish engulfing or pin bars).
📈 Smart traders might wait for confirmation below $4,000 before adding short positions.
💬 Summary
➡️ Bias: Bearish below $4,060
➡️ Target: $3,940
➡️ Invalidation: Break and close above $4,070
📍 “Trendlines break fast, but support zones hold stronger — trade smart, not fast.”
Gold Neowave Bulletin| 10/10/2025
Namaskaram Everyone
Welcome to intelligent investor, we provide market insights by synchronising and combining all the price action waves from different time frames and gives you single trend.
Here are all our previous gold analysis, with this you will understand how with Neowave Theory you will have an edge in the market.
Previous Neowave Bulletin
09/12/2025
07/10/2025
01/10/2025
30/09/2025
29/09/2025
OANDA:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD VANTAGE:XAUUSD MCX:GOLD1!
Gold Trading Strategy for 10th October 2025💰 GOLD (XAU/USD) Trading Setup
⏰ Timeframe: 1 Hour & 15 Minutes
🟢 Buy Setup
💹 Entry: Buy above the high of the 1-hour candle — once it closes above $4014
🎯 Targets:
🎯 Target 1: $4022
🎯 Target 2: $4035
🎯 Target 3: $4050
🛡️ Stop Loss: Below $4005 (adjust with risk tolerance)
📈 Trade Logic:
If the hourly candle closes above $4014, it indicates bullish strength. Look for confirmation before entering a long position. Momentum above this level could push prices towards the next resistance zones.
🔴 Sell Setup
💹 Entry: Sell below the low of the 15-minute candle — once it closes below $3962
🎯 Targets:
🎯 Target 1: $3953
🎯 Target 2: $3941
🎯 Target 3: $3922
🛡️ Stop Loss: Above $3975 (adjust with market conditions)
📉 Trade Logic:
If the 15-min candle closes below $3962, bearish momentum is likely to continue. Break below this level may open room for further downside.
⚠️ Disclaimer
📜 This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only.
💼 Not financial advice. Always conduct your own research or consult with a certified financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
📊 Trading in commodities and financial markets involves significant risk. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Silver: Bearish Engulfing – Is the Top In?#Silver View:
Just like Gold, Silver has formed a strong Bearish Engulfing pattern on the daily chart, potentially signaling a temporary top in the current trend. While it’s still early to confirm a full reversal, the price action suggests caution for bulls.
✅ Confirmation:
A daily close below 143,900
(today's low), especially with increased volume, would confirm the pattern and likely trigger further downside momentum.
❌ Negation:
If Silver manages to close above 153,388 (today’s high), the bearish structure will be invalidated.
🎯 Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance: 153,388 (pattern high)
Support: 143,900 (pattern low)
Stay alert for follow-through candles and volume spikes in coming sessions.
#Silver | #XAGUSD | #BearishEngulfing | #CandlestickPatterns | #TechnicalAnalysis | #PriceAction | #SilverAnalysis
📌 Disclaimer: This analysis is shared for educational purposes only. It is not a buy/sell recommendation. Please do your own research before making any trading decisions.
Gold: Bearish Engulfing – Is the Top In?Gold View:
Potential temporary top may be forming in Gold, marked by a strong Bearish Engulfing pattern on the daily chart. While it’s still early to confirm a full reversal, price action suggests caution for bulls.
✅ Confirmation:
A daily close below today's low 120,218 , especially with increased volume, would confirm the pattern and likely trigger further downside momentum.
❌ Negation:
If Gold manages to close above 123,677 (today’s high), the bearish structure will be invalidated.
🎯 Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance: 123,677 (pattern high)
Support: 120,218 (pattern low)
Stay alert for follow-through candles and volume spikes in coming sessions.
#Gold | #XAUUSD | #BearishEngulfing | #CandlestickPatterns | #TechnicalAnalysis | #PriceAction | #GoldAnalysis
📌 Disclaimer: This analysis is shared for educational purposes only. It is not a buy/sell recommendation. Please do your own research before making any trading decisions.
Gold trading strategy | October 9-10✅Gold prices formed a double-top pattern around the 4059.2 level and the previous high, followed by a sharp decline. During the drop, the 3996 (previous support) level was broken, and the price is now consolidating around the 3950 area.
On the short-term chart, consecutive bearish candles indicate strong bearish momentum.
Key short-term support lies in the 3950–3920 zone; if this level breaks, further downside potential will open up.
✅On the 4-hour chart, the price has broken below the MA5 and MA10, quickly pulling back toward the MA20. The bullish momentum near the upper Bollinger Band has already faded, and candles have fallen directly below the mid-band, signaling a phase of correction. If the 3950 support fails, the price may test the 3920–3900 area. On the upside, resistance lies at 3996–4000, and only a sustained break above this zone would allow the bullish trend to resume.
🔴Resistance Levels: 3996–4000 / 4028–4035
🟢Support Levels: 3950–3940 / 3920–3910
✅Trading Strategy Reference:
🔰If the price rebounds but fails to break 3996–4000, short positions can be considered, targeting the 3950 area.
🔰If the price holds steady around 3950 and shows a bottoming signal, long positions can be considered, targeting the 4000 area.
CRUDEOIL1! / USOIL - Correction is not complete yet?
TF: 240 Minutes
CMP: 5580
I have plotted the internal wave counts of this larger corrective pattern (WXY) and also drew Pitchfork Support and Resistance levels for better understanding.
In summary, looks like the correction is not yet complete and we are in the final leg of the correction (Y leg)..
In this Y leg, the thesis is that, we are falling in an ABC three wave down or 1,2,3,4,5 impulse down.
In either case, we have completed first leg (a or 1) and the 2nd is about to get over (b or 2)..
The next, most rewarding one is the C or the 3rd wave down..
Wait for solid rejection at the upper levels (5620-5650 Max) and look for a decent RR set up.
Will update here when the trade becomes active.. For now, the B or 2 rise is not yet complete.
Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI registered Analyst and this is not a trading advise. Views are personal and for educational purpose only. Please consult your Financial Advisor for any investment decisions. Please consider my views only to get a different perspective (FOR or AGAINST your views). Please don't trade FNO based on my views. If you like my analysis and learnt something from it, please give a BOOST. Feel free to express your thoughts and questions in the comments section.
GOLD (XAUUSD) Bullish Opportunity from Refined Demand Zone📍 Setup Overview:
Price is approaching a well-defined demand zone with bullish structure intact.
Expecting a reaction from this zone, targeting a move toward 4060, where higher-timeframe liquidity likely rests.
Demand Zone:
Proximal (Entry area): 3991
Sweet Spot (Midline): 3977
Distal (SL Invalidation): 3961
🔎 Entry Confirmation:
Looking for:
Liquidity sweep
Change of Character (ChoCH)
Bullish price action (engulfing/FVG)
🎯 Trade Plan:
Entry: 3977 (or refined based on LTF)
Stop Loss: below 3961
Take Profit: 4060
R:R: ~1:4+ depending on execution
🧠 Confluences:
✅ Demand zone structure
✅ Bullish order flow
✅ Liquidity engineered below 3962
✅ Clear upside target near 4060
⚠️ Not financial advice — for analysis and educational purposes only.
#XAUUSD
#GOLD
#SmartMoney
#SupplyAndDemand
#PriceAction
#Forex
#BullishSetup
#TechnicalAnalysis
#Liquidity
#ChoCH
#4060
#OrderBlock
Gold (XAU/USD) Rebound Setup – Support Holding Strong!Analysis:
Gold (XAU/USD) is showing signs of bullish strength after testing the $4,000–$3,970 support zone, where buyers are stepping back in. The recent consolidation above support suggests a potential reversal and continuation of the uptrend.
The setup highlights:
Support Zone: Around $3,970 – $4,000, acting as a key accumulation area.
Bullish Trigger: A breakout above minor resistance could drive momentum higher.
Targets:
🎯 Target 1: $4,101
🎯 Target 2: $4,150
🎯 Target 3: $4,200
Stop Loss: Below $3,970 to protect against a downside breakout.
📈 Outlook: As long as price sustains above support, Gold remains bullish, aiming for a breakout towards $4,150 and $4,200 levels.
XAUUSD| Unstoppable Uptrend, Gold Benefits from Fed & ETF Inflow📊 Market Context
Gold continues to maintain its upward trend amidst the political and economic instability in the US. The US government has entered its second week of shutdown with no signs of reaching an agreement, raising further concerns about the impact on economic performance.
Simultaneously, the Fed's entry into a monetary easing cycle since September, with expectations of further 25-point rate cuts in October and December, is driving strong buying momentum in gold.
Not just investors, but global central banks are also continuing to accumulate gold, adding 15 tonnes to reserves, indicating a gradual shift away from US public debt.
All these factors combined continue to reinforce a sustainable upward trend, opening up opportunities for strategic BUY moves.
🔎 Technical Analysis (H1/H4)
Prices remain within the upward channel, continuously retesting and bouncing off support zones.
Buy Scalp Zone 4004–4002: a quick reaction zone in the short term.
Main Buy Zone 3986–3984: key support, combined with FVG.
Target Resistance: 4068–4082 (Liquidity Zone).
📈 Trading Plan
✅ BUY SCALP: 4004–4002
SL: 3996
TP: 4008 - 4012 - 4016 - 4020 - 4030 - 4040 - ????
✅ BUY ZONE: 3986–3984
SL: 3980
TP: 3990 - 3995 - 4000 - 4010 - 4020 - 4030 - 4040 - ????
⚠️ Risk Management Note
The 4000 level is a psychological resistance – prone to liquidity sweeps.
Prioritise waiting for clear price action signals at BUY zones.
Adjust volume sensibly as volatility may increase with political news & Fed impacts on market sentiment.
✅ Summary
Gold's uptrend remains solid thanks to political instability, Fed easing, record ETF inflows, and central banks continuing to hoard gold. Strategy prioritises BUY at 4004–4002 and 3986–3984 with targets aiming at 4068–4082.
GOLD UPDATE – Bulls Defend $4,000 Ahead of Powell’s SpeechGold continues to hold firm above the key $4,000 psychological level, even after a sharp correction from the all-time high near $4,059. The market’s focus now shifts to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech, which could set the tone for the next directional move.
Despite the recent dip, the overall structure remains bullish, and the FiboMatrix setup still signals that buyers are not out of the game yet.
Technical Structure (H1 – FiboMatrix View)
Support Zone (BUY Setup):
4010 – 4012 → Retest of breakout trendline + Fibo 0.618 reaction zone.
Strong intraday base where liquidity may reload for another bullish leg.
Reaction Buy Zone:
402x → Potential confirmation area if price reacts positively.
Resistance Zone (ATH):
4060 → Previous intraday top, acting as the first major barrier before retesting 408x.
SELL Reaction Zone:
4084 – 4086 → Fibo 1.5 – 1.618 expansion zone, potential scalp short zone with tight stop above 4090.
🎯 Trading Plan (Francis Strategy)
✅ BUY Setup:
Entry: 4010 – 402x (wait for confirmation).
TP1: 4060
TP2: 4084
SL: Below 3996
⚠️ SELL Setup (Short-term scalp):
Entry: 4084 – 4086 (if rejection forms).
Target: 4040 → 4020
SL: Above 4096
🔑 Francis Outlook
Gold’s short-term correction looks more like a controlled retracement than a trend reversal.
As long as the price holds above the $4,000 handle, the bullish bias stays intact.
👉 Expect potential consolidation before Powell’s remarks, followed by a sharp reaction depending on the tone of his speech.
A clean breakout above 4060 – 4086 will open the path toward $4,100+ and new ATH targets.
🚀 Trend Bias: Bullish above 4010 – Buy the Dip, Sell only at Fibo extremes with confirmation.
gold silver crucial upate Gold now tested historical high 4060$ as per expected and dwn from high 25$ support additional 4010-4000$ if mkt sustain blw than near dwn 3995-80$ expect or if hold support than again tes new high but eyes on 4060 if sustain abv than mkt 4085--4120-45$ again due to strong etf demands ------------ silver made 49.55$ near to historical high 49.85$ and mkt sudden dwn fall gvn 48$ in comex open mkt at 3.00 am now let see 2011 high will act laxman rekha or not if close abv 49.85$ than will see 52-60$ soon by year end
Yes mcx gold again 123331 if sustain abv than nxt rally possible 123780-124-124800+++ support 122300@ only blw some dwn pressure ---- silver touched 150k historical high now 150300-151000 consolidated zone if close abv or weekly close than only 162000 near looks yes if any correction will update-----
post some time delay sorry for it
October 9 Gold AnalysisOctober 9 Gold Analysis
Looking back at this week's performance, gold, driven by rising expectations of rate cuts and geopolitical risks, has performed exceptionally strongly, breaking through the $3,900 and $4,000 levels in succession and reaching new all-time highs. Despite a sharp drop in Thursday's Asian session due to the sudden news of a ceasefire agreement, gold prices quickly found strong support at the key psychological level of $4,000 and rebounded, having largely recovered the lost ground. This clearly demonstrates that the core driving forces of the current market remain unchanged, with strong buying appetite on dips and the overall upward trend remaining intact.
Analysis of Core Drivers
1. Expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts: This is the fundamental driving force behind this surge in gold prices. Market expectations of further Fed rate cuts in October and December continue to build, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing gold and providing a solid underlying support for gold prices.
2. Spreading risk aversion: The US government shutdown entered its second week, with bipartisan negotiations repeatedly breaking down, and market concerns about a prolonged shutdown intensified. This political risk has triggered widespread panic, driving continued safe-haven flows into the gold market.
3. Strong Technical Breakout: After breaking through $4,000, gold prices have confirmed entering a new price range. Although technical indicators suggest short-term overbought conditions and correction potential, the moving averages are bullish, and the upward trend remains solid.
Trading Strategy
Downward Support:
Primary support: $4,022 (the intraday low of the European session). A breakout here would indicate that market sentiment remains positive.
Core Support: $4,000. This is a key level that has been tested and successfully stabilized multiple times in the past two days and is the lifeline for determining the continuation of this upward trend. As long as gold prices hold above this level, the overall bullish outlook remains unchanged.
Upward Resistance:
Near-term resistance: $4,045 (the morning opening price and the rebound high in the Asian and European sessions). A breakout here would confirm the end of the short-term correction and reassert buying momentum.
Key Resistance: $4,060 (near the all-time high). A successful breakout above this level will open up further upside potential, with the next target likely reaching $4,100.
Trading Recommendations:
We recommend a volatile bullish outlook. Focus on stabilizing signals near the support area.
I've shared strategies earlier on my channel. Profitable traders can continue to increase their positions at lower levels, targeting 4,060-4,100.
Trade with caution and manage risk! Best of luck!