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Gold Hits $394x! New ATH: Fed & BoJ Drive the Rally.Hello, traders! Gold (XAU/USD) has just delivered a massive breakthrough in the Asian session, setting a New ATH around $394x after comfortably breaching that $3900 level. This strength, bhai, is getting serious support from two big monetary policy moves: Fed rate cut expectations and the likelihood of the BoJ (Bank of Japan) delaying rate hikes due to the new PM. Paisa hi paisa! Fundamentals & Technical Caution: Mind the FOMO Dual Drivers: Market sentiment is clear—the Fed is expected to cut rates two more times, and the dovish BoJ outlook only adds more fuel, creating a rock-solid foundation for Gold. Safe-Haven: The continuous US Shutdown drama and geopolitical tensions are keeping that safe-haven bid strong. FOMO Warning: The momentum is fierce, but you must avoid buying the high. Prioritize Buying on pullbacks to FVG (Fair Value Gaps) to secure a safer entry point. Discipline is key, boss. Key Price Levels: Resistance: $3954, $3963 Support: $3910, $3895, $3883, $3870 Trading Strategy (Absolute Risk Management): BUY SCALP: $3910 - $3908 SL: $3904 TPs: $3918, $3928, $3938, $3948, $3958 BUY ZONE (FVG): $3895 - $3893 SL: $3885 TPs: $3903, $3913, $3923, $3933, $3943 SELL ZONE (High Risk): $3964 - $3966 SL: $3974 TPs: $3956, $3946, $3936, $3926, $3916 Are you placing your bets on a $4000 target this week? Let me know your plan! 👇 #Gold #XAUUSD #ATH #Fed #BoJ #Shutdown #TradingView #MarketAnalysis #GoldFever
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Jeremy_NPC
silver spot or mcx lvl update at higher lvlsilver spot looks beast mode due to higher high pastern with short correction and made huge gap with daily or 4th hrs chart. technical lvl--support 47--46.80$ indicate as per chart only blw some down correction expect 46.20--46--45.90$ where hurdle 48.45--48.50$ if sustain abv than next touch 48.80--49--or last 49.80$++ may be touch over all looks boom mode only. mcx silver--- till hold abv 146300 no worry for bulls soon 148--149++ ultimate 152k possible or if sustain abv 152 or close 2days than u will see 158--162 soon no if and but. yes be care full at higher lvl profit booking may be come but eyes on lvl . usa shutdown boosting safe heaven demand
TVC:SILVER
by kailashcfa33
LiamTrading – GOLD approaches the $4000 mark LiamTrading – GOLD approaches the $4000 mark: The upward wave continues Hello everyone, Gold continues to maintain its impressive upward momentum as the DXY only slightly increases by 0.50% and is currently at 98.21 – a signal indicating that safe-haven flows still prioritise precious metals. Currently, the technical structure on H1 shows gold is in a clear upward channel, with price reaction zones accurately identified through Fibonacci and trendline, aiming for the next major target of $4000/oz. 📊 Technical Analysis (H1) Main Trend: Strong upward, Higher High – Higher Low structure remains intact Main Support Zone: around 3890 – 3900, coinciding with Fibo 1.0 confluence + upward trendline Psychological Resistance Zone: 3955 – 3999, corresponding to Fibo extension 2.0 – 3.6 RSI is moving into the 70+ zone, reflecting strong buying force but short-term correction signs need to be observed. 🎯 Today's Trading Scenarios Buy scalping 📍 3909 – 3911 🛑 SL: 3904 🎯 TP: 3940 – 3955 – 3970 – 3990 Buy swing 📍 3888 – 3890 🛑 SL: 3882 🎯 TP: 3910 – 3925 – 3950 – 3975 – 3990 Sell scalping 📍 3956 – 3958 🛑 SL: 3964 🎯 TP: 3935 – 3910 – 3890 Sell swing 📍 3997 – 3999 🛑 SL: 4010 🎯 TP: 3975 – 3950 – 3925 🧭 Trend Analysis With the current upward force and stable technical structure, the $4000 target is entirely feasible in the short term. The preferred strategy is to BUY with the trend, watch for pullbacks to optimise entry, and avoid FOMO at the peak. Adjustments to the support zone 3890–3900 will be a beautiful opportunity to open buy positions. 💡 I will continue to update detailed reaction zones & new plans in each session. Follow me for the earliest updates on daily gold scenarios!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by LiamTradingFX
Gold Soars on FOMO – 1000-Pip Opportunity Ahead!GOLD PLAN FOR 06.10 | Captain Vincent ✳️ Hello to all traders, Today, we are not only analysing Gold (XAU/USD) from a purely technical perspective ⚙️, but also witnessing the perfect confluence between technicals and fundamental news. A bullish storm is forming, promising attractive trading opportunities. 📊 1. Technical Analysis: Sustainable Bullish Structure From a technical standpoint, the uptrend of Gold on the H1 chart is undeniable. 🔹 Break of Structure (BoS): Gold continuously breaks previous highs, indicating that buying pressure is completely dominant. Each BoS point is a clear affirmation of the strength of the uptrend. 🔹 Potential Demand Zone: After each rally, the price often takes a “pause” to accumulate. Currently, the price may adjust to the $3,883,020 - $3,911,169 zone, where the confluence between Fair Value Gap (FVG) and Bullish Order Block (Bullish OB) – creates an ideal launchpad for the next rally. 🏦 2. Fundamental Analysis: The Fire Has Been Lit If technicals show the way, then fundamental news is the fuel driving the uptrend. 🔸 US Government Shutdown: This event creates political and economic instability, causing capital to flee from risky assets. Gold – the number one safe haven – is directly benefiting as investors seek to preserve their assets. 🔸 Fed Ready to Cut Interest Rates: The market is almost certain that the Fed will cut interest rates by 0.25%. This reduces the appeal of the USD, further strengthening Gold's advantage, which is a non-yielding asset. 🔸 “Thirst” for Economic Data: The government shutdown also disrupts the release of important economic data, leaving the market lacking information and increasing uncertainty. In this environment, Gold continues to hold its safe haven role. 🎯 3. Comprehensive Trading Plan When technicals and fundamentals align, the reliability of the trading strategy is significantly enhanced. Strategy: Wait to buy (Long) when the price adjusts to the demand zone $3,883,020 - $3,905,169. Entry signals: Observe confirmation of a bullish reversal in this zone such as: Pin bar candles, engulfing Or BoS on the M15 chart Targets: Short-term: $3950 – $3990 Long-term: Target “+1000 pips” Risk management: Place Stop Loss below the Bullish OB to protect the account. 🧭 Conclusion The current market sentiment is very favourable for the Buyers: USD is under downward pressure Defensive capital flows are strongly moving into Gold The FOMO effect can stimulate an extended rally The combination of a solid technical structure and strong fundamental support is creating an almost perfect bullish picture. 👉 Be patient, stick to the plan, and await this golden opportunity. 💼 Wishing everyone an effective and victorious trading day!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CaptainVincent
Gold 1H – Liquidity Plays Between 3794 and 3918Gold on the 1H timeframe is fluctuating within a defined range after multiple ChoCH signals, with liquidity concentrated at both premium supply and discount demand. Current price action suggests engineered sweeps remain likely: upside liquidity sits near 3918–3916, while downside support aligns with 3794–3796. This dual structure sets up both tactical sell and buy plays depending on liquidity grabs. From the macro perspective, gold traders are balancing caution ahead of upcoming U.S. data releases with the backdrop of a resilient dollar and persistent geopolitical risks. These drivers reinforce intraday volatility, where engineered liquidity hunts at extremes provide clearer opportunities. ⸻ 📌 Key Structure & Liquidity Zones (1H): • 🔴 SELL GOLD 3918–3916 (SL 3925): Premium supply sweep zone. Downside targets at 3896 → 3872 → 3853. • 🟢 BUY GOLD SUPPORT 3794–3796 (SL 3788): Discount demand aligned with structural lows. Upside targets at 3819 → 3853 → 3872+. ⸻ 📊 Trading Ideas (Scenario-Based): 🔻 Sell Setup – Liquidity Grab at 3918–3916 • Entry: 3918–3916 • Stop Loss: 3925 • Take Profits: • TP1: 3896 • TP2: 3872 • TP3: 3853 🔺 Buy Setup – Discount Demand at 3794–3796 • Entry: 3794–3796 • Stop Loss: 3788 • Take Profits: • TP1: 3819 • TP2: 3853 • TP3: 3872+ ⸻ 🔑 Strategy Note Gold remains liquidity-driven and range-bound, with engineered sweeps expected at both premium highs and discount lows. Flexibility is crucial: fade rallies into the 3918 supply zone, while preparing to scale into longs if liquidity clears into the 3794 demand base.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Ryan_TitanTrader
2
Gold 1H – Will CPI Repricing Push Gold Into FVG Reversal?Gold on the 1H timeframe is reacting near 3,928 after a clean structure break and buildup toward the premium zone 3960–3958, where liquidity remains above recent highs. Market structure shows a bullish impulse leg forming, but engineered sweeps at premium supply are likely before continuation. The defined FVG buy zone around 3840–3842 marks discount territory for potential re-entry if price retraces deeper. From the macro side, gold is consolidating as traders brace for this week’s U.S. CPI data and renewed Treasury yield volatility. The dollar’s firm tone and cautious risk sentiment following stronger U.S. job figures are keeping gold capped near short-term supply. Still, geopolitical tensions and central-bank demand continue to provide underlying support, reinforcing the buy-on-dip narrative toward year-end. ________________________________________ 📌 Key Structure & Liquidity Zones (1H): • 🔴 SELL GOLD 3960–3958 (SL 3967): Premium liquidity sweep zone targeting retracement toward 3940 → 3900. • 🟢 BUY ZONE 3840–3842 (SL 3833): Discount demand and FVG mitigation aligned with higher-timeframe support. Upside targets 3860 → 3880 → 3900+. ________________________________________ 📊 Trading Ideas (Scenario-Based): 🔻 Sell Setup – Liquidity Sweep at 3960–3958 • Entry: 3960–3958 • Stop Loss: 3967 • Take Profits:  • TP1: 3940  • TP2: 3920  • TP3: 3900 🔺 Buy Setup – FVG Mitigation at 3840–3842 • Entry: 3840–3842 • Stop Loss: 3833 • Take Profits:  • TP1: 3860  • TP2: 3880  • TP3: 3900+ ________________________________________ 🔑 Strategy Note Gold remains liquidity-driven within a mid-range structure. Expect engineered sweeps into 3960–3958 before deeper pullbacks into discount demand near 3840–3842. Tactical bias favors fading rallies at premium while preparing to join the continuation move from discount FVG support if CPI-related volatility clears the liquidity pools.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Ryan_TitanTrader
Gold Price Analysis — XAU/USD (Daily)Overview: Gold has staged an impressive rally, climbing from the 3,200–3,300 area to the 3,870 region within a strong bullish structure. Price action shows higher highs and higher lows, signaling continued demand from buyers. 🚀 Technical Outlook: • Trend: Both the medium- and long-term trends remain bullish, with price above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. • Momentum: Strong upward momentum confirmed by MACD histogram expansion and RSI hovering near overbought territory (~70). • Key Levels:   ⚠️ Resistance: ~3,900 (psychological & structural level).   ✅ Support: 3,400–3,600 zone. Trading Scenarios: 1️⃣ Bullish Continuation: • Enter on pullbacks to support (3,600–3,700). • Targets: 3,950–4,000. • Use trailing stop to secure profits. 2️⃣ Rejection at Resistance (~3,900): • Look for bearish candlestick patterns (pin bar, engulfing). • Short-term correction toward 3,400–3,200. • Stop-loss above 3,920 to manage risk. 3️⃣ Breakout Play: • If price closes above 3,900 decisively with volume, expect continuation toward 4,100+. • Ideal for breakout traders with risk managed via tight SL below breakout candle. Risk Management: ⚠️ Do not risk more than 1–2% per trade. ✅ Use trailing stops to lock in gains. 💡 Accept losing trades early; capital preservation is priority. Conclusion: 🎯 Bias remains bullish while above 3,600. Traders should monitor the 3,900 level closely — a breakout could extend the rally, while rejection could trigger a corrective pullback.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDLong
by TradingshopUS
New ATH: Shutdown Fuels Gold's Seventh Straight WinHello, traders! Gold just sealed its seventh consecutive weekly gain, boss, with futures hitting a whopping $3,908.9/oz. This rally is powered by growing tension over the US Government Shutdown and the solid expectation of a Fed rate cut (97% chance in October, no less!). Fundamentals & Outlook: Pure Safe-Haven Rally Political Instability: The prolonged Shutdown is a proper bullish driver now. It's delaying key economic reports, creating huge uncertainty, and attracting big safe-haven capital flows. Rate Cut Certainty: The market is absolutely banking on a Fed rate cut, giving massive support to non-yielding Gold. Technicals & Trading Strategy: Focus on $3867 The weekly buying power is super strong. Gold is holding steady near the $3900 mark. The $3867 level is our critical line, bhai; if the price stays above it, the potential for new ATHs remains very high. Key Price Levels: Resistance: $3902, $3912, $3922, $3942 Support: $3867, $3855, $3839, $3792 Trading Strategy (Absolute Risk Management): BUY ZONE 1: $3867 - $3865 SL: $3857 TPs: $3875, $3885, $3895, $3905, $3915 BUY ZONE 2: $3839 - $3827 SL: $3824 TPs: $3847, $3857, $3867, $3877, $3887 SELL ZONE 1: $3902 - $3904 SL: $3912 TPs: $3894, $3884, $3874, $3864 SELL ZONE 2: $3942 - $3944 SL: $3952 TPs: $3934, $3924, $3914, $3904 What's your view? Will the US political drama help Gold finally break past $3900 next week? Tell me below! 👇 #Gold #XAUUSD #ATH #Shutdown #Fed #TradingView #MarketAnalysis #GoldRush
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Jeremy_NPC
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD (October 6, 2025) ________________________________________ 🔹 1. Momentum D1 Timeframe • Daily momentum is currently declining, with both lines starting to converge inside the overbought zone. • Today is a critical day: o If the daily candle closes strongly bullish, price may extend the upside for another 2–3 days. o If the daily candle closes bearish, momentum will continue to decline, suggesting the correction may extend further. ➡️ Therefore, today’s daily close will be important to determine the mid–term trend direction. H4 Timeframe • H4 momentum lines are stuck together in the overbought zone, indicating a potential reversal could happen at any moment. H1 Timeframe • H1 momentum is turning upward, but since it’s already near the overbought area, the current push may not be sustainable. ➡️ A short-term pullback is likely to occur within the next 1–2 H1 candles. ________________________________________ 🔹 2. Wave Structure D1 Timeframe • On the daily chart, price has broken above 3877, which is the second target of the yellow wave 5. • Given the strong move, this could simply be a liquidity sweep, not necessarily the end of wave 5 yet. ➡️ We need to observe the daily close to confirm whether momentum continues to weaken or stabilizes. H4 Timeframe • After a 3-wave ABC correction (in blue), the price is now moving within purple wave 5. • Based on the current price channel, two possible targets for purple wave 5 are: o 🎯 Target 1: 3923 o 🎯 Target 2: 3986 H1 Timeframe • The structure shows a 5-wave pattern (in black) inside purple wave 5. • The 0.618 projection of wave 5 has already been reached near 3926, which also aligns with the 0.382 retracement level of the H4 structure — creating a strong confluence zone suitable for a potential short setup. • If price closes decisively above 3926, it may continue to extend toward 3986. ➡️ In that case, it’s better to wait for a clear reversal signal near 3986 rather than shorting too early. ________________________________________ 🔹 3. Trading Plan 📍 Setup: • Sell Now: 3925 – 3926 • Stop Loss: 3936 • Take Profit: 3899 📌 Safer Option: Wait for a bearish H1 confirmation candle before entering the trade. ⚠️ Note: This is a potential topping phase, so it’s essential to manage positions carefully — avoid loose stop losses or unprotected exposure.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by WavePoint_FX
#Gold Long term view#Gold Long term view(5years): Gold price is creating new all time highs. We may see another 10-15% upside move in the coming months. Existing positions can hold and book some profits near the top and carry the rest. No fresh long positions are recommended at the current levels as price is nearing the top. We may see a declining phase in gold in the upcoming 5yrs as we have seen in the past from 2010-2015. Note: Kindly note that the above view is purely based on past data. Since many global factors effect the gold price, plan your investments wisely.
TVC:GOLDShort
by n99trades
Gold Trading Strategy for 06th October 2025🌟 GOLD Intraday Trading Plan 🌟 💰 Buy Setup 📈 Buy Above: the high of 15-min candle — only if price closes above $3906 🎯 Targets: 🎯 1st Target: $3915 🎯 2nd Target: $3925 🎯 3rd Target: $3935 🛡️ Stop Loss: Below $3900 (or as per your risk level) 💰 Sell Setup 📉 Sell Below: the low of 1-hour candle — only if price closes below $3870 🎯 Targets: 🎯 1st Target: $3860 🎯 2nd Target: $3848 🎯 3rd Target: $3836 🛡️ Stop Loss: Above $3878 (or as per your risk level) ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. 📜 Trading in commodities like Gold ($XAU/USD) involves high risk and may not be suitable for all investors. 📊 Always do your own analysis before taking any trade. 💡 Use proper risk management and trade at your own discretion. 💼
TVC:GOLD
by ramkkyy
SILVER AT THE $50 "WIDOW MAKER ZONE": IS A CRASH IMMINENT?Silver has hit the wall. It's not just resistance—it's the exact price range $48.00–$50.00 that triggered the 70%+ market massacres of 1980 and 2011. 3 Reasons Why a Correction Is Locked In The risk of a violent reversal is extreme. This zone is a perfect storm of selling pressure: * The $50 Trap: It's a massive Technical Trap. Long-term sellers trapped from the 2011 peak are all waiting here to dump their bags and take profit. * Psychological Trauma: Historical Precedent is terrifying. The memory of two prior crashes at this level creates panic-selling pressure that will compound any dip. * Market Exhaustion: Retail Over-Exuberance is flashing red. Heavy positioning means the easy money is gone, and there's no fuel left to break the ceiling. The Twist: Not a Total Bust (Yet) While a crash is likely, a full 1980s-style wipeout is less certain. Why? Industrial Demand. Silver is fundamentally stronger now, backed by massive, non-negotiable demand from the Green Energy Transition (solar, EVs). This structural deficit offers a floor that past bubbles lacked. The Bottom Line The $48–$50 area is the "Widowmaker Zone." Expect carnage. * The Line: If Silver fails to decisively close above $50.00, brace for a brutal correction—likely a fast drop back to the $35.00 range. * Your Move: MAXIMUM CAUTION. Short-term profits must be protected. History doesn't just rhyme; at this price, it often repeats itself.
CMCMARKETS:SILVERShort
by StockVesters
3
XAUUSD/Gold Weekly Buy Projection (05.10.25) chartXAUUSD/Gold Weekly Buy Projection (05.10.25) chart. Here’s a clear technical summary of what your chart shows: 🔹 Overall Structure The chart projects a bullish move for XAUUSD (Gold). Title: Weekly Buy Projection – 05 Oct 2025 Main trend: Ascending continuation pattern (marked by blue upward trendlines). Current price zone: around $3,886.45. 🔹 Key Levels Support S2: around $3,838 – $3,846 Support S1: around $3,870 – $3,878 Resistance 1: around $3,900 – $3,910 Resistance 2 (New ATH): around $3,939 – $3,970 🔹 Pattern & Projections Golden Ratio (0.618 Fibonacci) formed near $3,874, signaling a retracement support. Bullish engulfing candle noted at Support S1, confirming buying interest. Possible Double Top highlighted near Resistance 1, indicating a short-term pullback risk before continuation. Fair Value Gap (FVG) exists between $3,875–$3,890, suggesting potential liquidity refill before next le
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by kripsonfx97
LiamTrading – GOLD Weekly Plan ..GOLD Weekly Plan: Prepare for a Breakthrough to a New ATH The new trading week opens with extremely complex sentiments — many traders are confused, and even the “big players” are cautious. But if you look closely at the price structure, everything becomes clear: gold is still in a sustainable uptrend. 🧠 Psychological & Trend Analysis Gold has just closed the week with a strong upward momentum, confirming the continuation of the medium-term uptrend. At this stage, “Selling at the peak” is almost a dangerous move – as each correction is shallow and quick, not allowing sellers enough time to exit. This creates a strong “fear of missing out” (FOMO) sentiment – driving funds to continue pouring in when the price hits the trendline or technical retracement zones. 📊 Technical Analysis On the H4 chart, the upward structure of gold is clearly visible following the impulse + correction box pattern (each accumulation – breakout repeats). The 3820–3830 zone continues to be the “golden retracement point” as it coincides with the medium-term uptrend line. Last week's bounce from this zone brought excellent profits for those who patiently waited. Currently, the next target for gold lies at the Fibonacci 1.618 zone – around 3980, which is also a significant psychological level where many investors might take profits. 🎯 Trading Scenario Buy setup (trend-following): Entry: 3830 Stoploss: 3815 Take Profit: 3980 Sell reaction (short-term upon reaching target): Entry: around 3980 Stoploss: 3988 TP open depending on price reaction (scalping strategy) 🔍 Conclusion Gold is still on the right growth trajectory, with short corrections merely opportunities to “accumulate”. Continue trading with the trend, patiently waiting for the price to retrace to strong confluence zones instead of FOMO at high prices. I will continue to share more details in daily updates here. Follow me to not miss the latest gold scenarios.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by LiamTradingFX
GOLD DAILY – MACRO VIEW FOR LONG-TERM GOLD Hello everyone 👋 Today is the weekend, let's review the gold movements to gain insights for the upcoming trading week. The weekly candle closed at 3,886.5 – a high level that most investors did not anticipate. The daily candle, almost fully bullish, has strongly reinforced the main bullish trend of gold in the medium and long term. 🔎 Technical View Analyzing through Fibonacci extension, the next target for gold lies at the 4,000 mark, coinciding with the Fibo 1.618 level and a significant psychological resistance zone. This is a confluence zone between technical and psychological factors, expected to have a strong reaction when the price approaches this area. The current upward trend is almost unwavering, bolstered by macro factors – US political instability is causing uncertainty for the USD. 💡 Macro View The US government shutdown is indefinite, economic data is delayed, causing market confusion. The USD is weakening, while gold becomes a safe haven. This scenario continues to reinforce the long-term upward trend of gold, especially as investors seek assets that preserve value. ⚖️ Long-term Scenarios and Strategies 1️⃣ Long-term Buy Scenario: Entry: around 3,640 – 3,650 Reason: This is a strong support area on the Volume Profile chart, where large liquidity is concentrated. When the price returns to this area, the pressure to take profits and release sell positions from trapped traders will create a strong price rebound effect. This is the most potential buying zone in the medium term. 2️⃣ Short/Medium-term Reaction Sell Scenario: Entry: around 4,000 Reason: This is a confluence resistance zone of technical (Fibo 1.618) and psychological (round number) factors. Prioritize short-term reaction sells, capturing the pullback if gold hits the peak. ⚠️ Risk Management Note Trading on larger time frames requires good capital and management skills, as the stop-loss range is higher compared to shorter frames. Do not enter trades too early without confirmation signals from the price zone. Always clearly define the time frame and profit expectations before entering a trade. 📈 Summary: The long-term trend of gold remains upward, with a medium-term target towards $4,000. Buying around 3,640 is an attractive price zone for accumulating long-term positions. Sell reactions around 4,000 if there are clear reversal signals. 👉 If you want to follow daily updated scenarios, please follow me
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Steven-GoldTrading
Swing Trade Journey – Trade 8: Copper FuturesTrade 8 Log Long in #CopperFut at ₹972 on 03/10/2025 Gap-up entry executed as per alert. Reasoning: Price triggered the alert on a gap-up opening, confirming strength after consolidation. Trend remains intact above short-term averages with momentum favouring continuation. Setup offered a clean entry with limited downside risk. Tracking this as part of my swing trade journey — recording setups, risks & outcomes. #TradingJourney #CommodityTrading #SwingTrading #Copper #Futures
MCX:COPPER1!Long
by Tarunsoni
Swing Trade Journey – Trade 5: Shipping Corporation of India (SCTrade 5 Log Entered #SCI at ₹226 on 03/10/2025 (Was outside, couldn’t update live) Stop Loss: ₹221 Reasoning: Price took support near the 20-day moving average and is trading in a tight consolidation zone. The setup offers a favourable risk-reward structure with signs of accumulation and strength emerging on volume. Tracking this as part of my swing trade journey — recording setups, risks & outcomes. #TradingJourney #StockMarketIndia #SwingTrading #SCI
NSE:TATASTEEL1!Long
by Tarunsoni
XAU/USD Near Record Highs: Key Data AheadGold (XAU/USD) Technical Outlook – October 3, 2025 1. Macro & News Context Gold is holding near record highs, heading for its seventh consecutive weekly gain, supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue cutting rates and by concerns around the ongoing U.S. government shutdown. Spot prices have recently tested the ₹3,890–3,900 region and are now consolidating around ₹3,860. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) – Typically scheduled for 18:00 IST on the first Friday of the month, the September jobs report is likely to be delayed due to the U.S. government shutdown. Key event to watch today: ISM Services PMI (September) will be released at 19:30 IST. Since ISM data is privately produced, it will be published regardless of the shutdown and may serve as the main volatility catalyst in today’s U.S. session. 【ISM】 Labor market signals: Challenger job cut data showed lower layoffs in September, but planned hiring at the lowest level since 2009, reinforcing a softer employment backdrop. Combined with the Fed’s recent 25 bps rate cut (to 4.00%–4.25%), this continues to support the bullish gold narrative. USD trend: The dollar has weakened broadly this week, aligning with market bets on further monetary easing. This backdrop provides an additional tailwind for gold. 2. Technical Landscape (H1 Chart) The attached chart highlights key technical zones and a completed Harmonic XABCD pattern on the 1H timeframe: Support levels: Near-term: ₹3,844–3,841 Deeper: ₹3,827 (intraday pivot), ₹3,792 (strong low) Strategic: ₹3,764–3,770 (Bullish Order Block) Resistance levels: Immediate: ₹3,865 Strong supply: ₹3,880–3,890 (Bearish Order Block) Extended target: ₹3,930–3,940 (Sell Scalping | Fibo zone) Momentum: After bouncing from point D of the harmonic structure, gold has been forming higher lows (HL). Price currently sits above the longer-term moving average and is testing the shorter-term average, suggesting a constructive short-term bias as long as supports hold. 3. Trade Scenarios Scenario 1 – Buy-the-dip (preferred bias) Entry zone: ₹3,844–3,841 Stop loss: Below ₹3,827 (safer: below ₹3,792) Targets: ₹3,865 (first take-profit) ₹3,880–3,890 (major supply) Stretch: ₹3,930–3,940 Rationale: Higher low formation, bullish macro backdrop, aligned with strong weekly uptrend. Scenario 2 – Countertrend short at resistance Trigger zone: ₹3,880–3,890 (Bearish OB) Confirmation: Rejection candles (H15–H1) such as wicks, engulfing, or failed breakout. Stop loss: Above ₹3,895–3,900 (or above ₹3,945 if price spikes into the ₹3,930–3,940 fib zone). Targets: ₹3,865 → ₹3,844 → ₹3,827 Rationale: Potential liquidity sweep ahead of ISM, with profit-taking likely near supply zones. Scenario 3 – Breakdown through support Trigger: 1H close below ₹3,841 Path: ₹3,827 → ₹3,792 (Strong Low) → ₹3,764–3,770 (Bullish OB) Rationale: Loss of intraday structure would flip bias short until major demand zones. 4. How to Trade Around Today’s Data If NFP is indeed delayed, the 18:00 IST slot may bring limited volatility. Focus instead on the ISM Services PMI at 19:30 IST, which could trigger sharp swings in both USD and gold. Adjust position sizing: Expect spread widening and slippage around the release. Reduce leverage or scale into positions. 5. Risk Management Limit risk per trade to 0.5–1% of account equity. Avoid chasing price once levels are tested; wait for H15–H1 candle closes for confirmation. Monitor the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and Treasury yields – further dollar weakness would reinforce bullish gold setups. 🔑 Key Takeaway Gold remains structurally bullish in the broader trend, with immediate support at ₹3,841–3,844 critical to maintain upside momentum. Watch for reactions around ₹3,880–3,890 and ₹3,930–3,940. With NFP possibly delayed, the ISM Services PMI at 19:30 IST will be today’s most important catalyst for directional moves.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CaptainVincent
GOLD@ 3890 : Bubble Peak or Just a Pit-Stop?Pullback vs. Correction The 100th-Idea Deep Dive !! Gold has moved almost 88% in the last two years to new records. The main drivers are falling real yield expectations with an easing bias, persistent geopolitical risk, record central bank buying and the 2025 rebound in ETF demand. Geopolitics is shifting as Washington pushes for a Gaza ceasefire. Headlines talk about partial acceptance and ultimatums but nothing is done yet. The war premium can fade step by step though headline shocks will still remain. Key levels:- Resistance 3890–4000 Pullback zone 3640–3650 (5%) Correction zone 3475–3480 (11%) Weekly RSI stretched into high 70s and 80s → risk of mean reversion before any bigger change. Macro gears:- Real yields and the dollar:- Lower real yields = higher gold. That is the key lever. As rate cuts and softer real rates were priced into 2025, gold repriced hard. Central bank sponsorship:- Official demand has been consistent three years in a row. 2022 at 1082t, 2023 at 1037t, 2024 at 1045t. This is rare in modern data and explains why dips are shallow. ETF flows:- After outflows in 2024, 2025 turned. Three straight months of inflows into August, strongest since 2020, YTD around 588t. Pure fuel ✨ Geopolitics & the premium:- From 2023 to 2025 Middle East risk kept term premia elevated. Now Gaza peace talks open a path for that premium to fade. But timelines and enforcement are unclear. Strikes still came even with peace headlines. Means the bleed can be gradual but headline spikes remain.. Pullback or true correction:- 3890–4000 is the confluence zone. Psychological milestone + vertical extension after 88% impulse. Bubble behavior meets supply. Level 1 at 3640 → about -5% pullback. If bids hold, trend resumes. Level 2 at 3470→ -10 to -12% wash into prior shelf. Would be first real reset in two years. Weekly momentum overbought. Phases like this don’t end instantly but forward returns improve after reset. Flows @ CBs rarely chase tops, they buy weakness across months. That softens drawdowns. ETFs are flighty. Peace plus firmer yields can stall inflows. Any Fed pivot or growth wobble can flip them back fast. Possible future paths :- Continuation bubble :- Break 3900 → 4050–4200 Triggers dovish Fed, softer yields, failed peace, ETF flows Tactic = only add above 3900 on daily/weekly close. No chasing wicks. Shallow pullback :-Tag 3630–3660 then rotate Triggers peace holds, modestly firm yields, demand returns Tactic = scale in near 3640–3650 if H4 shows higher low + reclaim POC. First TP 3780–3820. True correction :- flush 3520–3460 Triggers Gaza settlement + real yields higher + ETF stall Tactic = let it wash. Look for capitulation + basing 3480–3460. Best R:R after failed bounce and reclaim. Levels & invalidation:- Bull continuation pivot 3890–3900. Opens 4050–4200. Pullback buy zone 3630(Hvz)–3650 with confirmation. Invalidation H4 <3600. Correction buy zone 3480 ±20 after basing. Invalidation weekly <3420 → opens 3300–3350. If flat → stagger entries and size carefully. If long from lower → trail under last daily HL, book partial 3880–3950. Surprise risk (Imp) ETF squeeze higher – inflows still not at 2020 peak → late cycle melt-up possible. Policy shock – faster cuts or fiscal noise sink yields = blow-off. Strong data → pop in yields = sharp air pocket. Geopolitical whipsaw – peace unravels → $50–100 spike in thin tape!! Bottom line:- This is a two year vertical impulse meeting macro reality at 3890. Level 1 = 3640–3650 pullback line. Level 2 = 3480 correction line. Until weekly breaks, dips are still opportunities not obituaries. But only with structure. No blind catching this high up. Bubbles don’t end quietly – great trends reset then go again ✨ Fade euphoria into 39xx if momentum stalls. Buy fear into 348x if the market finally delivers the reset it owes. Trade safe ⚡ Sparkrlight ♾️✨⚡
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
by sparkrlight
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