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Nifty Weekly Review Jan 27 - Jan 31Price moved in range between 23000 to 23400 through out this week. 23000 is a strong support zone. Price is bullish as long as it is sustaining above 23000. In daily time frame price is testing support zone and should move above it to be bullish. Buy above 23060 with the stop loss of 23010 for the targets 23100, 23140, 23190, 23240, 23300, 23360, 23420 and 23460. Sell below 22960 with the stop loss of 23000 for the targets 22920, 22880, 22820, 22760 and 22720. Do your own analysis before taking any trade.
NSE:NIFTY
by vanathi
9
Options Trading Strategies on Budget Day 2025A Comprehensive Guide on Nifty, Niftybank, and Sensex Options Introduction Trading options on Union Budget day can be an exhilarating yet challenging endeavour. The Indian stock market sees significant volatility on this day, influenced by the budget announcements made by the Finance Minister. This guide will provide insights into trading options on the three major indices in the Indian markets: Nifty, Nifty Bank, and Sensex. We will also analyse the past data of these indices on budget days and examine how India VIX have fluctuated during these days. Based on this data we will deploy 4 delta neutral strategies and see how these strategies have performed on the budget days for all the 3 indices. The basic idea of this study is to find out the optimal strategy that can be deployed on budget day. Also please note since Sensex is a new instrument for weekly options data for the strategies is only available for 2024 Understanding the Major Indices • Nifty: The Nifty 50 index, representing 50 of the largest companies listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE). • Niftybank: The Nifty Bank index, comprising the most liquid and large capitalized Indian banking stocks. • Sensex: The Sensex or BSE 30 index, representing 30 of the largest and most actively traded stocks on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). Historical Performance on Union Budget Days To make informed trading decisions, it is essential to analyse how these indices have performed on budget days over the past decade. The following tables provide detailed data on the indices' performance, including values for Open, High, Low, Close, and percentage changes from Open to Close and High to Low. Additionally, the tables include India VIX movement throughout the day. Analysing Implied Volatility and India VIX On Union Budget day, implied volatility and the India VIX are crucial indicators to watch. Typically, an IV crush occurs post the Finance Minister's speech, leading to a significant drop in volatility. This section will explore these trends based on historical data and provide insights into how traders can capitalize on these movements. PS: The IV considered here will be the ATM Straddle IV Options Trading Strategies Although multiple options strategies can be deployed on budget day we are going to consider deploying a Directional and a Non-Directional Straddle with protective hedges. We will compare the strategies to see which strategy has given the best back testing performance and we will compare the performance of these strategies for all indices Nifty, Bank Nifty and Sensex. Short Straddles using Wait & Trade A conventional short straddle involves selling an ATM call and an ATM put option. However instead of entering both the legs at once we are going to perform a wait and trade directional straddle. This means that we will enter the call leg or the put leg only when the premium falls below 5%. We will take the reference time of entry as 9:20 am and exit time for the strategy will be 3:25 pm. We will check the reference price of both the calls and put options at 9:20 am for the ATM Straddle strike price. Let us say the Nifty on budget day is trading at 22500 then we will check the premium of the 22500 CE and 22500 PE and note down these prices. Let us say both are trading close Rs 100 each then we will enter only when the price of those options goes below Rs 95 implying that there is some direction in the market. So we will enter only that leg and avoid executing the other leg. If the market takes a direction we are bound to profit from the leg that has been executed. If the market moves up first and then down then it is likely that both the legs will get executed. The stop loss on the individual legs will be 70% each. One can execute this simple strategy via an algo execution platform. Pros: This strategy profits from the decrease in implied volatility and can be profitable if the market remains sideways or directional. Cons: This strategy will tend to loose money in a V-shape or U-shape market since there is a possibility of both stop losses triggering. Iron Butterfly An Iron Butterfly strategy involves selling an ATM straddle and buying protective wings (an OTM call and an OTM put) to limit risk. The offset units will be purely selected on the basis of the breakeven points of the straddle to keep it simple. This strategy is limited risk limited reward strategy. We will execute this strategy on all indices at 9:20 am and exit at 3:25 pm on all budget days. Pros: On budget days the usual tendency of the market is to make some extreme movements but tend to close flat or closer to the open. If on the budget day the market tends to behave in this manner then the strategy turns out to be a high profitable strategy. Cons: On budget day if the market becomes extremely directional then this strategy will end in a limited loss Back tested Results The back tested performance of short straddles and Iron Butterfly on Nifty, Nifty Bank, and Sensex indices are summarized in the following tables. These tables will help traders understand the potential profitability and risks associated with each strategy. For some strategies there is lack of back tested data available, so it is denoted as NA in the column of the strategy name Note: All the strategies deployed as a part of this exercise are time based straddles. To optimize the performance of these strategies one can look at ATM straddle charts and can add some technical indicators such as super trend, vwap or moving averages to plan precision entries and exits for these strategies. The usage of these will definitely help increase the probability of the trade. Please find the link below for your reference with all the data Historical Data Indices.xlsx The software used for backtesting the strategies in StockMock. Conclusion Budget week brings volatility; traders should employ delta neutral strategies to benefit from price fluctuations and implied volatility changes Some of the key highlights of all budget days: 1. Budget week is highly volatile, with significant price movements expected. 2. Historical analysis shows an average 2-2.5% movement from high to low on budget days. 3. Implied volatility typically decreases around 11 AM on budget day. 4. Delta neutral strategies are recommended for traders lacking directional clarity. 5. Various strategies like straddles, strangles, and iron condors can be employed. 6. One should use algo platforms to automate executions since markets will tend to move very fast and in such situations, execution becomes extremely critical 7. Also do your own study by backtesting, forward testing and only then deploy your strategy in the live market Hope you found the above article useful in helping you to prepare yourself in advance for Budget Day. All the best!
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by VishalSubandh
8
George Soros's Top Trading Rules: Master Risk and Reward I hope you all are doing great in life and your trading journey as well! Today, I’ve brought an educational post on George Soros's Top Trading Rules . These timeless principles from one of the greatest traders in history will help you master risk management and improve your trading skills. Let’s dive in! It’s not whether you’re right or wrong that matters, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong. Soros focuses on managing risk and reward, emphasizing that being right doesn’t matter unless your profits outweigh your losses. Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux, and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected. He highlights the importance of thinking ahead and capitalizing on unexpected market moves. The worse a situation becomes, the less it takes to turn it around, and the bigger the upside. This rule underlines his contrarian approach of buying when others are fearful and selling when others are greedy. Know when to cut your losses. Soros is a big believer in exiting a losing trade quickly to protect your capital. I’m only rich because I know when I’m wrong. I basically have survived by recognizing my mistakes. This reflects the importance of self-awareness and adaptability in trading. When you’re risking your own money, the first and foremost rule is survival. Protecting capital is always the top priority, ensuring long-term trading success. Recognize bubbles when you see them. Soros’s theory of reflexivity emphasizes how markets can deviate from fundamentals due to investor sentiment, creating opportunities to profit. A good trader thinks about probabilities, not certainties. He advises traders to focus on risk management and the odds of success rather than seeking perfect predictions. If investing is entertaining, if you're having fun, you're probably not making any money. Good investing is boring. Patience and discipline are crucial in trading and investing. Thank you for reading! Apply these timeless principles of George Soros in your trading journey and focus on mastering risk and reward. Share your thoughts or favorite trading rules in the comments below! Don’t forget to follow for more insightful posts. Happy Trading!
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by TraderRahulPal
Nifty - Possible end of bears controlFrom the ATH of 26151 Nifty is almost reaching its 10% correction value @ 22635 Area of 22650 to 750 also happens to be the last strongest support point At this level it can be make or break situation for nifty Will be good to take a bullish bet with 22600 as ultimate SL(Closing basis) as the PE premiums are soaring high It may be a risky call but Risk to Reward is excellent Will wait for the index to show some clarity in lower time frames (15 / 30/ 60 m)
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Vishy5
3
Are we completing wave C in NiftyA truncated wave C is a situation where C=A was not achieved. At least C=61.8% of A so we are good enough. That the recent fall in Mid and Smallcap stocks was unable to get the Nifty bears to break a potential H&S structure is noteworthy. So, with many short-term and medium-term sentiment indicators near oversold extremes, it might be time to think about bounces ahead of Union budget 2025 even though budget expectations have to remain tempered down. The RSI is also at a higher level than we were at the end of wave A so we can develop a positive divergence in the indicator if we get a bottom here.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by indiacharts
1
NIFTY Levels for January 27, 2025NIFTY Levels for Today Here are the today's NIFTY Levels for intraday. Based on market movement, these levels can act as support, resistance or both. Please consider these levels only if there is movement in index and 15m candle sustains at the given levels. The SL (Stop loss) for each BUY trade should be the previous RED candle below the given level. Similarly, the SL (Stop loss) for each SELL trade should be the previous GREEN candle above the given level. Note: This idea and these levels are only for learning and educational purpose. Your likes /boosts gives us motivation for continued leaning and sharing ideas.
NSE:NIFTY
by RainingMoneywithTech
2
Nifty - Jan 28 monthly expiry analysisPrice consolidated in the opening session and gave up move/break out. Price faced resistance at the channel trend line and fall down. 23000 is still the trend deciding zone. Buy above 23030 with the stop loss of 22990 for the targets 23060, 23090, 23140, 23180 and 23220. Sell below 22960 with the stop loss of 22990 for the targets 22930, 22900, 22860 and 22820. Expected expiry day range is 22850 to 23150. Do your own analysis before taking any trade.
NSE:NIFTY
by vanathi
Bank nifty - Jan 28 monthly expiry analysisPrice gave trending bullish move today. 48800 - 48840 is the support and 49260 - 49300 is the resistance. Price have break this range with force to give a trending move. Buy above 48840 with the stop loss of 48740 for the targets 48940, 49020, 49120, 49200, 49320 and 49460. Sell below 48660 with the stop loss of 48740 for the targets 48580, 48500, 48420, 48300, 48220 and 48100. Expected expiry day range is 48500 to 49600. Do your own analysis before taking any trade.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by vanathi
NIFTY Levels for January 27, 2025NIFTY Levels for Today Here are the today's NIFTY Levels for intraday. Based on market movement, these levels can act as support, resistance or both. Please consider these levels only if there is movement in index and 15m candle sustains at the given levels. The SL (Stop loss) for each BUY trade should be the previous RED candle below the given level. Similarly, the SL (Stop loss) for each SELL trade should be the previous GREEN candle above the given level. Note: This idea and these levels are only for learning and educational purpose. Your likes /boosts gives us motivation for continued leaning and sharing ideas.
NSE:NIFTY
by RainingMoneywithTech
BANKNIFTY Levels for January 28, 2025BANKNIFTY Levels for Today Here are the today's BANKNIFTY Levels for intraday. Based on market movement, these levels can act as support, resistance or both. Please consider these levels only if there is movement in index and 15m candle sustains at the given levels. The SL (Stop loss) for each BUY trade should be the previous RED candle below the given level. Similarly, the SL (Stop loss) for each SELL trade should be the previous GREEN candle above the given level. Note: This idea and these levels are only for learning and educational purpose. Your likes /boosts gives us motivation for continued leaning and sharing ideas.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by RainingMoneywithTech
Midnifty Intraday Analysis for 28th January 2025NSE:NIFTY_MID_SELECT Index closed near 11720 level and Maximum Call and Put Writing near CMP as below in January Month contract: Call Writing 12000 Strike – 11.96 Lakh 11900 Strike – 6.48 Lakh 11800 Strike – 5.08 Lakh Put Writing 11500 Strike – 9.06 Lakh 11800 Strike – 6.53 Lakh 11400 Strike – 6.17 Lakh Index has immediate resistance near 11900 – 11950 range and if index crosses and sustains above this level then may reach 12050 – 12100 range. Index has immediate support near 11650 – 11600 range and if this support is broken then index may tank near 11350– 11300 range.
NSE:NIFTY_MID_SELECT
by RKMAURYA
Is 21400 the bottom of #NIFTY ? The Nifty50 is currently down over 13% from its all-time high. After studying the chart for a while, I’ve arrived at a possible scenario. Since COVID, the index has remained within a channel, and I don’t see any major catalysts—like a recession, pandemic, war, or significant news—driving this decline. In fact, we’ve weathered much more severe global events since COVID. Given this, I lean toward the possibility of a small bounce or consolidation rather than a crash. But could my view be wrong? Of course—it’s always possible that the market behaves differently than I expect. Can I control that? Not at all. The best I can do is align with the market and let it take its course. Cheers!
NSE:NIFTY
by SwingtradesbyAbhishek
Nifty50The Nifty 50 Index could drop further if it breaches key support levels. Based on recent analyses: A drop below the immediate support level of 22,975 could open the door for further decline towards 22,800. If market sentiment continues to be bearish, the next support level could be around 22,600. More extended downside support levels are at 22,500 and 22,3433. Let's keep an eye on market indicators and global sentiment, as they can significantly influence these support levels. Do you think the market might find support at one of these levels?
NSE:NIFTYShort
by EquityGainer
Nifty Prediction for Tuesday 28 January 25Hello Early Investor, Our objective at #HELPINGSTOCKINVESTOR is to build financial discipline in traders by simplifying Stock Market Education and Financial concepts with an expertise knowledge in Derivative Analysis, Market Trend Analysis and Technical analysis of a Stock. Here you can learn different trading strategies along with market fundamentals. Daily Market Analysis on this channel is most helpful for traders. #Experience of almost 7+ years in the market. Happy Trading! Like Share Subscribe
NSE:NIFTY
by THEBREAKOUTTRADERS
BankNifty levels - Jan 28, 2025Utilizing the support and resistance levels of BankNifty, along with the 5-minute timeframe candlesticks and VWAP, can enhance the precision of trade entries and exits on or near these levels. It is crucial to recognize that these levels are not static, and they undergo alterations as market dynamics evolve. The dashed lines on the chart indicate the reaction levels, serving as additional points of significance. Furthermore, take note of the response at the levels of the High, Low, and Close values from the day prior. We trust that this information proves valuable to you. * If you found the idea appealing, kindly tap the Boost icon located below the chart. We encourage you to share your thoughts and comments regarding it. Wishing you successful trading endeavors!
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by sacxe
1
Nifty levels - Jan 28, 2025Nifty support and resistance levels are valuable tools for making informed trading decisions, specifically when combined with the analysis of 5-minute timeframe candlesticks and VWAP. By closely monitoring these levels and observing the price movements within this timeframe, traders can enhance the accuracy of their entry and exit points. It is important to bear in mind that support and resistance levels are not fixed, and they can change over time as market conditions evolve. The dashed lines on the chart indicate the reaction levels, serving as additional points of significance to consider. Furthermore, take note of the response at the levels of the High, Low, and Close values from the day prior. We hope you find this information beneficial in your trading endeavors. * If you found the idea appealing, kindly tap the Boost icon located below the chart. We encourage you to share your thoughts and comments regarding it. Wishing you success in your trading activities!
NSE:NIFTY
by sacxe
1
#Banknifty directions and levels for January 27th: > The Nifty is showing a long gap-down start. If this sustains, structurally, we can expect the correction to continue with some minor pullbacks. Based on the wave structure, this long gap-down could extend into the 3rd sub-wave of the correction. Typically, the 3rd wave is the longest leg of an impulse, so we can expect a prolonged correction. This is the structural sentiment. > On the other hand, the budget announcement is just a few days away, and experts are expecting high volatility. This means there is no clear direction—if the market goes down, it could recover at any point, and if it goes up, it may eventually reverse. Therefore, the sentiment is a bit difficult to predict. In light of this, we can apply a simple trading method: > as long as the 38% Fibonacci level in the minor swing holds, the correction is likely to continue in the current direction. If this level breaks, we can expect a reversal.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by Manickamtraders
Nifty Intraday Analysis for 28th January 2025NSE:NIFTY Index closed near 22930 level and Maximum Call and Put Writing near CMP as below in current weekly contract: Call Writing 23000 Strike – 85.62 Lakh 23300 Strike – 79.27 Lakh 23300 Strike – 71.29 Lakh Put Writing 22000 Strike – 100.54 Lakh 22500 Strike – 59.87 Lakh 23000 Strike – 54.46 Lakh Index has resistance near 23250 - 23300 range and if index crosses and sustains above this level then may reach near 23400 - 23450 range. Index has immediate support near 23000 – 23050 range and if this support is broken then index may tank near 23200 – 22250 range.
NSE:NIFTY
by RKMAURYA
Nifty 1D Bear Market Technical Analysis (Distribution Phase)- Nifty is currently trading at 22,829. - Nifty has erased 13.11% from its all-time high of 26,274. - Ninety percent of social media outlets and broadcasters have stopped their perpetual bullish commentary on Nifty, which they claimed would never stop. The next ten years for India are expected to be very bullish, and Nifty could soon head towards 30,000 following this drop. - Now, let's focus on understanding what we can expect from this drop and where prices may head in the upcoming days. - Nifty is about to test the largest liquidity grab it made around 21,285. After that, we may quickly see Nifty rebalance the inefficiencies it creates during this impulsive downward move. - The level I will be considering for my personal investment is between 18,832 and 19,000. - The range of 18,000 to 20,000 is likely to be a very strong zone for long-term investments rather than short-term swings, as markets typically move in cycles of accumulation, manipulation, and distribution. - To fill the gaps, the market rebalances every imbalance, taking out liquidity between candles and heading toward new lows or highs. The market seeks liquidity from Fair Value Gaps; that's how it usually moves. - We have witnessed a bull market for 2 years now. In my opinion, we are soon going to experience a Distribution phase of 2 years filled with many manipulations and dead cat bounces. Stay cautious and don't miss discounted levels; an index correcting 30% is significant.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by VKtradesimbalance
Advanced TradingOptions are a type of contract that gives the buyer the right to buy or sell a security at a specified price at some point in the future. An option holder is essentially paying a premium for the right to buy or sell the security within a certain time frame. Technical analysis is a means of examining and predicting price movements in the financial markets, by using historical price charts and market statistics. It is based on the idea that if a trader can identify previous market patterns, they can form a fairly accurate prediction of future price trajectories.
NSE:BANKNIFTYEducation
by SkyTradingZone
3
Advanced Option TradingWhen options are better. Options can be a better choice when you want to limit risk to a certain amount. Options can allow you to earn a stock-like return while investing less money, so they can be a way to limit your risk within certain bounds. Options can be a useful strategy when you're an advanced investor. Yes, profits from intraday trading are considered business income and taxed according to your income tax slab. How is intraday trading taxed? Intraday trading profits are treated as short-term capital gains, added to taxable income, and taxed based on applicable slab rates.
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by SkyTradingZone
3