Reversal Probability Meter PRO

7 hours ago

A powerful multi-factor reversal probability detector that calculates the likelihood of bullish or bearish reversals using RSI, EMA bias, ATR spikes, candle patterns, volume spikes, and higher timeframe (HTF) trend alignment.

🧩 MAIN FEATURES
1. Reversal Probability (Bullish & Bearish)

Displays two key metrics:

Bull % — probability of bullish reversal

Bear % — probability of bearish reversal

These are computed using RSI, EMAs, ATR, demand/supply zones, candle confirmations, and volume spikes.

📊 Interpretation:

Bull % > 70% → Buying pressure building up

Bull % > 85% → Strong bullish reversal confirmed

Bear % > 70% → Selling pressure building up

Bear % > 85% → Strong bearish reversal confirmed

2. Alert Probability Threshold

Adjustable via alertThreshold (default = 85%).

Alerts trigger only when probability ≥ threshold, and confirmed by zone + volume spike + candle pattern.

🔔 Alerts Available:

✅ Bullish Smart Reversal

🔻 Bearish Smart Reversal

To activate: Right-click chart → “Add alert” → choose the alert condition from the indicator.

3. Demand / Supply Zone Detection

The script determines the price position within the last zoneLook (default 30) bars:

🟢 DEMAND → Lower 35% of range (potential bounce zone)

🔴 SUPPLY → Upper 35% of range (potential rejection zone)

⚪ MID → Neutral area

📘 Purpose: Validates reversals based on context:

Bullish only valid in Demand zones

Bearish only valid in Supply zones

4. Higher Timeframe (HTF) Trend Alignment

Reads EMA bias from a higher timeframe (default = 15m) for trend confirmation.

Reversals against HTF trend are automatically weighted down

Prevents false countertrend signals

📈 Example:

M5 chart under M15 downtrend → Bullish probability is reduced.

5. Candle Confirmation Patterns

Two key price action confirmations:

Bullish: Engulfing or Pin Bar

Bearish: Engulfing or Pin Bar

A valid reversal requires both a candle confirmation and a volume spike.

6. Volume & ATR Spike Filters

Volume Spike: volume > SMA(20) × 1.3

ATR Spike: ATR > SMA(ATR, 50) × volMult

🎯 Ensures that only strong market moves with real energy are considered valid reversals.

7. Reversal Momentum Histogram

A color-gradient oscillator showing the momentum difference:

Green = bullish dominance

Red = bearish dominance

Flat near 0 = neutral

Controlled by showOscillator toggle.

8. Smart Info Panel

A compact dashboard displayed on the top-right with 5 rows:

Row Info Description
1 Bull % Bullish reversal probability
2 Bear % Bearish reversal probability
3 Zone Market context (DEMAND / SUPPLY / MID)
4 Sensitivity Current sensitivity mode
5 Signal Strength Current signal intensity (probability %)

2 hours ago

Release Notes

A powerful multi-factor reversal probability detector that calculates the likelihood of bullish or bearish reversals using RSI, EMA bias, ATR spikes, candle patterns, volume spikes, and higher timeframe (HTF) trend alignment. [default settings are optimized for xau/usd 5 minute timeframe]

🧩 MAIN FEATURES
1. Reversal Probability (Bullish & Bearish)

Displays two key metrics:
Bull % — probability of bullish reversal
Bear % — probability of bearish reversal

These are computed using RSI, EMAs, ATR, demand/supply zones, candle confirmations, and volume spikes.

📊 Interpretation:

Bull % > 70% → Buying pressure building up
Bull % > 85% → Strong bullish reversal confirmed
Bear % > 70% → Selling pressure building up
Bear % > 85% → Strong bearish reversal confirmed

2. Alert Probability Threshold

Adjustable via alertThreshold (default = 85%).
Alerts trigger only when probability ≥ threshold, and confirmed by zone + volume spike + candle pattern.

🔔 Alerts Available:

✅ Bullish Smart Reversal
🔻 Bearish Smart Reversal
To activate: Right-click chart → “Add alert” → choose the alert condition from the indicator.

3. Demand / Supply Zone Detection

The script determines the price position within the last zoneLook (default 30) bars:
🟢 DEMAND → Lower 35% of range (potential bounce zone)
🔴 SUPPLY → Upper 35% of range (potential rejection zone)
⚪ MID → Neutral area

📘 Purpose: Validates reversals based on context:

Bullish only valid in Demand zones
Bearish only valid in Supply zones

4. Higher Timeframe (HTF) Trend Alignment

Reads EMA bias from a higher timeframe (default = 15m) for trend confirmation.
Reversals against HTF trend are automatically weighted down
Prevents false countertrend signals
📈 Example:
M5 chart under M15 downtrend → Bullish probability is reduced.

5. Candle Confirmation Patterns

Two key price action confirmations:

Bullish: Engulfing or Pin Bar
Bearish: Engulfing or Pin Bar
A valid reversal requires both a candle confirmation and a volume spike.

6. Volume & ATR Spike Filters

Volume Spike: volume > SMA(20) × 1.3
ATR Spike: ATR > SMA(ATR, 50) × volMult
🎯 Ensures that only strong market moves with real energy are considered valid reversals.

7. Reversal Momentum Histogram

A color-gradient oscillator showing the momentum difference:
Green = bullish dominance
Red = bearish dominance
Flat near 0 = neutral

Controlled by showOscillator toggle.

8. Smart Info Panel

A compact dashboard displayed on the top-right with 5 rows:
Row Info Description
1 Bull % Bullish reversal probability
2 Bear % Bearish reversal probability
3 Zone Market context (DEMAND / SUPPLY / MID)
4 Signal Strength Current signal intensity (probability %)