Seasonal Trend by LogReturn Pro

Seasonal Trend by LogReturn Pro

Seasonal Trend by LogReturn Pro is a seasonality indicator that analyzes historical average logarithmic returns to visualize recurring price behavior throughout the trading year.
Instead of using simple price averages, this indicator is based on log returns, making it scale-independent and mathematically consistent across different price levels and assets.

🔍 How It Works
The indicator calculates daily logarithmic returns for each trading day of the year.
These returns are aggregated and averaged over a user-defined number of past years.
Based on this historical data, a seasonal trend profile is constructed that represents the statistically expected market behavior over the year.
All calculations are aligned by trading day index, not calendar days, ensuring accurate seasonality even across different years and holidays.

📈 Display Modes
The indicator offers two complementary visualizations:

1. Absolute Seasonal Projection (Main Chart)
- Projects a price path based on historical average log returns.
- Can be displayd:
- Only for the remaining part of the current year, or
- For the entire year, starting from the beginning.
- Useful for visualizing potential seasonal price tendencies relative to the current price.

2. Relative Seasonal Performance (Indicator Pane)
Shows the cumulative seasonal return in percentage terms.
Centered around a zero line for easy interpretation.
Ideal for identifying periods with historically positive or negative seasonal bias.

💡 Use Cases
Identifying seasonal bullish or bearish phases
Timing entries and exits based on historical tendencies
Combining seasonality with technical or fundamental analysis
Gaining a long-term probabilistic market perspective

⚠️ Disclaimer
This indicator is based on historical data and does not predict future price movements.
It should be used as a statistical reference tool, not as a standalone trading signal.