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GUSI Pro

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GUSI — Adaptive Bitcoin Cycle Risk Model

Most on-chain metrics published on TradingView — such as NUPL, MVRV, or Puell Multiple — were once reliable in past cycles but have lost accuracy. The reason is simple: their trigger levels are static, while Bitcoin’s market structure changes over time. Tops have formed lower each cycle, yet the traditional horizontal thresholds remain unchanged.

What GUSI does differently:

It introduces sloped trigger functions that decrease over time, adapting each metric to Bitcoin’s maturing market.

It applies long-term normalization methods (smoothing and z-score lookups) to reduce distortion from short-term volatility and extreme outliers.

It only includes signals that remain valid across all Bitcoin cycles since 2011, discarding dozens of popular on-chain ideas that fail even after adjustment.

How GUSI is built:
GUSI is not just a mashup of indicators. Each component is a proprietary, modified version of a known on-chain signal:

Logarithmic MACD with declining trigger bands

MVRV-Z Score Regression with cycle-aware slopes

Net Unrealized Profit/Loss Ratio normalized with dynamic z-scores

Puell Multiple with logarithmic decay

Weekly RSI momentum filter for bottoms

Optional Pi Cycle Top logic with sloped moving averages

These are combined into a composite risk scoring system (0–100). Every signal contributes to the score according to user-defined weights, and each can be toggled on/off. The end result is a flexible model that adapts to long-term changes in Bitcoin’s cycles while staying transparent in its logic.

How to use it:

Scores near 97 indicate historically high-risk conditions (cycle tops).

Scores near 2.5 highlight deep accumulation zones (cycle bottoms).

Background colors and labels make the conditions clear, and built-in alerts let you automate your strategy.

GUSI is designed for the INDEX:BTCUSD 1D chart and works best when viewed in that context.

In short: GUSI makes classic on-chain indicators relevant again by adapting them to Bitcoin’s evolving market cycles. Instead of relying on static thresholds that stop working over time, it introduces dynamic slopes, normalization, and a weighted composite framework that traders can adjust themselves.

For explanations, customization guides, and support, visit gusi-signal.com.

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.