INVITE-ONLY SCRIPT

Trend-Following & Breakout — Index Quant Strategy (NASDAQ)

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📈 Trend-Following & Breakout — Index Quant Strategy (NASDAQ & S&P 500)

Type: Invite-only strategy
Markets: NASDAQ 100 (NAS100 / US100 / NQ), S&P 500 (US500 / SPX), and other major equity indices.
🧠 Concept: Continuous trend model combining EWMAC (trend-following) and Donchian (breakout) signals, scaled by forecast strength and portfolio risk.
⚙️ Execution: Rebalances only on decision-bar closes, using hysteresis and a no-trade band to reduce churn.
📊 Default bias: Long-only — aligned with equity index drift.

🧩 How it works
• EWMAC Trend: Difference between fast and slow EMAs, normalized by an EWMA of absolute returns.
• Donchian Breakout: Distance beyond a 200-bar channel (Strict mode) or relative z-score position within it.
• Forecast combination: Weighted sum of trend and breakout points, clamped to ± capPoints.
• Hysteresis: Prevents quick sign flips near zero forecast.
• Risk scaling: Maps forecast strength to position size using equity × risk budget × ATR-based stop distance.
• Rebalance: Executes only if the required quantity change exceeds the Δqty threshold; can optionally block increases on Sundays (for CFDs).

⚙️ Default parameters
Deployed on NQ / US100 / NAS100 on Daily Timeframe
• Decision timeframe = 360 min (other options from 1 min to 1 week).
• Trend (EWMAC): Fast = 64, Slow = 256, Vol Norm = 32, Weight = 0.8.
• Breakout (Donchian): Length = 200, Mode = Strict, Weight = 0.2.
• Forecast scaling: ptsPerSigma = 1.0, capPoints = 10.
• Risk % per rebalance = 4 % of equity.
• ATR stop: ATR(14) × 1.0.
• No-trade band (Δqty) = 4 units.
• Hysteresis = 2 forecast points.
• Bias = Long-only (Neutral / Long-bias 50 % optional).
• Skip Sunday increases = false (default).

📋 Backtest properties (documented)
• Initial capital = 100 000 USD.
• Commission = 0.20 % per trade.
• Pyramiding = 10.
• Calc on every tick = false.
• Point value = 1 (for NAS100 CFD).
• No financing or slippage modeled.
• If using CFDs, account for overnight funding.
• On futures (NQ / ES), carry is implicit.

📊 Typical behaviour
• Many small scratches, a few large winners.
• Performs best during multi-week / multi-month trends.
• Underperforms in tight or volatile ranges.
• Average hold ≈ 30 – 90 days in historical tests.

💡 Risk and performance guide (illustrative)
Sharpe ≈ 1.25
Sortino ≈ 1.10 – 1.30
Max drawdown ≈ –18 % to –25 %
Annual volatility ≈ 24 – 28 %
CAGR ≈ 50 – 60 % (at 4 % risk)
Edge ratio ≈ 5 (MFE / MAE)
Historical backtests only — past performance does not guarantee future results.

🌍 Intended markets and timeframes
Optimized for NASDAQ 100 and S&P 500; also effective on similar indices (DAX, Dow Jones, FTSE).
Best on Daily or higher timeframes.
Aligns with long-term index drift — suitable for long-bias systematic trend portfolios.

⚠️ Limitations
• Backtests exclude CFD funding costs.
• Trend models will have losing streaks in range-bound markets.
• Designed for experienced traders seeking systematic exposure.

🔑 Requesting access
Send a private TradingView message to [Algorific] with the text:
“Request access to Trend-Following & Breakout — Index Quant Strategy.”
Access is granted only on explicit request.
For further information, see my TradingView Signature.

🆕 Release notes (v1.0)
• Initial release (360 min TF): EWMAC 64/256 + Donchian 200 Strict.
• Risk 4 %, ATR × 1.0, Long-only bias, hysteresis 2 pts, Δqty ≥ 4.
• Developed for NASDAQ 100 and S&P 500 indices.
• Implements continuous risk-scaled positioning and no-trade band logic.

🧾 Originality statement
This strategy is original work built entirely from TradingView built-ins (EMA, ATR, Highest, Lowest).
It does not reuse open-source invite-only code.
Any future reuse of open scripts will be done with explicit permission and credit.

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.