Market Activity Risk"Market Activity Risk" (MAR) - Is a dynamic tool designed to structurize the competitive landscape of blockchain transaction blocks, offering traders a strategic edge in anticipating market movements.
By capturing where market participants are actively buying and selling, the MAR indicator provides insights into areas of high competition, allowing traders to make informed decisions and potentially front-run transactions.
At the heart of this tool are blockchain transaction fees , they can represent daily shifts in transaction fee pressures.
By measuring momentum in fees, we can analyze the urgency and competition among traders to have their transactions processed first. This indicator is particularly good at revealing potential support or resistance zones, areas where traders are likely to defend their positions or increase their stakes, thus serving as critical junctures for strategic decision-making.
Key Features:
Adaptable Standard Deviation Settings: Users have the flexibility to adjust the length of the standard deviation and its multipliers, managing the risk bands to their individual risk tolerance.
Color-Coded Risk Levels: The MAR indicator employs an intuitive color scheme, making it easy to interpret the data at a glance.
Multi-Currency Compatibility: While designed with Bitcoin in mind, the MAR indicator is versatile, functioning effectively across various cryptocurrencies including Ethereum, XRP, and several other major altcoins. This broad compatibility ensures that traders across different market segments can leverage the insights provided by this tool.
Customizable Moving Average: The 730-day moving average setting is thoughtfully chosen to reflect the nuances of a typical cryptocurrency cycle, capturing long-term trends and fluctuations. However, recognizing the diverse needs and perspectives of traders, the indicator allows for the moving average period to be modified.
Bitcoin (Cryptocurrency)
Smart DCA StrategyINSPIRATION
While Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) is a popular and stress-free investment approach, I noticed an opportunity for enhancement. Standard DCA involves buying consistently, regardless of market conditions, which can sometimes mean missing out on optimal investment opportunities. This led me to develop the Smart DCA Strategy – a 'set and forget' method like traditional DCA, but with an intelligent twist to boost its effectiveness.
The goal was to build something more profitable than a standard DCA strategy so it was equally important that this indicator could backtest its own results in an A/B test manner against the regular DCA strategy.
WHY IS IT SMART?
The key to this strategy is its dynamic approach: buying aggressively when the market shows signs of being oversold, and sitting on the sidelines when it's not. This approach aims to optimize entry points, enhancing the potential for better returns while maintaining the simplicity and low stress of DCA.
WHAT THIS STRATEGY IS, AND IS NOT
This is an investment style strategy. It is designed to improve upon the common standard DCA investment strategy. It is therefore NOT a day trading strategy. Feel free to experiment with various timeframes, but it was designed to be used on a daily timeframe and that's how I recommend it to be used.
You may also go months without any buy signals during bull markets, but remember that is exactly the point of the strategy - to keep your buying power on the sidelines until the markets have significantly pulled back. You need to be patient and trust in the historical backtesting you have performed.
HOW IT WORKS
The Smart DCA Strategy leverages a creative approach to using Moving Averages to identify the most opportune moments to buy. A trigger occurs when a daily candle, in its entirety including the high wick, closes below the threshold line or box plotted on the chart. The indicator is designed to facilitate both backtesting and live trading.
HOW TO USE
Settings:
The input parameters for tuning have been intentionally simplified in an effort to prevent users falling into the overfitting trap.
The main control is the Buying strictness scale setting. Setting this to a lower value will provide more buying days (less strict) while higher values mean less buying days (more strict). In my testing I've found level 9 to provide good all round results.
Validation days is a setting to prevent triggering entries until the asset has spent a given number of days (candles) in the overbought state. Increasing this makes entries stricter. I've found 0 to give the best results across most assets.
In the backtest settings you can also configure how much to buy for each day an entry triggers. Blind buy size is the amount you would buy every day in a standard DCA strategy. Smart buy size is the amount you would buy each day a Smart DCA entry is triggered.
You can also experiment with backtesting your strategy over different historical datasets by using the Start date and End date settings. The results table will not calculate for any trades outside what you've set in the date range settings.
Backtesting:
When backtesting you should use the results table on the top right to tune and optimise the results of your strategy. As with all backtests, be careful to avoid overfitting the parameters. It's better to have a setup which works well across many currencies and historical periods than a setup which is excellent on one dataset but bad on most others. This gives a much higher probability that it will be effective when you move to live trading.
The results table provides a clear visual representation as to which strategy, standard or smart, is more profitable for the given dataset. You will notice the columns are dynamically coloured red and green. Their colour changes based on which strategy is more profitable in the A/B style backtest - green wins, red loses. The key metrics to focus on are GOA (Gain on Account) and Avg Cost .
Live Trading:
After you've finished backtesting you can proceed with configuring your alerts for live trading.
But first, you need to estimate the amount you should buy on each Smart DCA entry. We can use the Total invested row in the results table to calculate this. Assuming we're looking to trade on BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
Decide how much USD you would spend each day to buy BTC if you were using a standard DCA strategy. Lets say that is $5 per day
Enter that USD amount in the Blind buy size settings box
Check the Blind Buy column in the results table. If we set the backtest date range to the last 10 years, we would expect the amount spent on blind buys over 10 years to be $18,250 given $5 each day
Next we need to tweak the value of the Smart buy size parameter in setting to get it as close as we can to the Total Invested amount for Blind Buy
By following this approach it means we will invest roughly the same amount into our Smart DCA strategy as we would have into a standard DCA strategy over any given time period.
After you have calculated the Smart buy size , you can go ahead and set up alerts on Smart DCA buy triggers.
BOT AUTOMATION
In an effort to maintain the 'set and forget' stress-free benefits of a standard DCA strategy, I have set my personal Smart DCA Strategy up to be automated. The bot runs on AWS and I have a fully functional project for the bot on my GitHub account. Just reach out if you would like me to point you towards it. You can also hook this into any other 3rd party trade automation system of your choice using the pre-configured alerts within the indicator.
PLANNED FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS
Currently this is purely an accumulation strategy. It does not have any sell signals right now but I have ideas on how I will build upon it to incorporate an algorithm for selling. The strategy should gradually offload profits in bull markets which generates more USD which gives more buying power to rinse and repeat the same process in the next cycle only with a bigger starting capital. Watch this space!
MARKETS
Crypto:
This strategy has been specifically built to work on the crypto markets. It has been developed, backtested and tuned against crypto markets and I personally only run it on crypto markets to accumulate more of the coins I believe in for the long term. In the section below I will provide some backtest results from some of the top crypto assets.
Stocks:
I've found it is generally more profitable than a standard DCA strategy on the majority of stocks, however the results proved to be a lot more impressive on crypto. This is mainly due to the volatility and cycles found in crypto markets. The strategy makes its profits from capitalising on pullbacks in price. Good stocks on the other hand tend to move up and to the right with less significant pullbacks, therefore giving this strategy less opportunity to flourish.
Forex:
As this is an accumulation style investment strategy, I do not recommend that you use it to trade Forex.
STRATEGY IN ACTION
Here you see the indicator running on the BITSTAMP:BTCUSD pair. You can read the indicator as follows:
Vertical green bands on historical candles represents where buy signals triggered in the past
Table on the top right represents the results of the A/B backtest against a standard DCA strategy
Green Smart Buy column shows that Smart DCA was more profitable than standard DCA on this backtest. That is shown by the percentage GOA (Gain on Account) and the Avg Cost
Smart Buy Zone label marks the threshold which the entire candle must be below to trigger a buy signal (line can be changed to a box under plotting settings)
Green color of Smart Buy Zone label represents that the open candle is still valid for a buy signal. A signal will only be generated if the candle closes while this label is still green
Below is the same BITSTAMP:BTCUSD chart a couple of days later. Notice how the threshold has been broken and the Smart Buy Zone label has turned from green to red. No buy signal can be triggered for this day - even if the candle retraced and closed below the threshold before daily candle close.
Notice how the green vertical bands tend to be present after significant pullbacks in price. This is the reason the strategy works! Below is the same BITSTAMP:BTCUSD chart, but this time zoomed out to present a clearer picture of the times it would invest vs times it would sit out of the market. You will notice it invests heavily in bear markets and significant pullbacks, and does not buy anything during bull markets.
Finally, to visually demonstrate the indicator on an asset other than BTC, here is an example on CRYPTO:ETHUSD . In this case the current daily high has not touched the threshold so it is still possible for this to be a valid buy trigger on daily candle close. The vertical green band will not print until the buy trigger is confirmed.
BACKTEST RESULTS
Now for some backtest results to demonstrate the improved performance over a standard DCA strategy using all non-stablecoin assets in the top 30 cryptos by marketcap.
I've used the TradingView ticker (exchange name denoted as CRYPTO in the symbol search) for every symbol tested with the exception of BTCUSD because there was some dodgy data at the beginning of the TradingView BTCUSD chart which overinflated the effectiveness of the Smart DCA strategy on that ticker. For BTCUSD I've used the BITSTAMP exchange data. The symbol links below will take you to the correct chart and exchange used for the test.
I'm using the GOA (Gain on Account) values to present how each strategy performed.
The value on the left side is the standard DCA result and the right is the Smart DCA result.
✅ means Smart DCA strategy outperformed the standard DCA strategy
❌ means standard DCA strategy outperformed the Smart DCA strategy
To avoid overfitting, and to prove that this strategy does not suffer from overfitting, I've used the exact same input parameters for every symbol tested below. The settings used in these backtests are:
Buying strictness scale: 9
Validation days: 0
You can absolutely tweak the values per symbol to further improve the results of each, however I think using identical settings on every pair tested demonstrates a higher likelihood that the results will be similar in the live markets.
I'm presenting results for two time periods:
First price data available for trading pair -> closing candle on Friday 26th Jan 2024 (ALL TIME)
Opening candle on Sunday 1st Jan 2023 -> closing candle on Friday 26th Jan 2024 (JAN 2023 -> JAN 2024)
ALL TIME:
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD 80,884% / 133,582% ✅
CRYPTO:ETHUSD 17,231% / 36,146% ✅
CRYPTO:BNBUSD 5,314% / 2,702% ❌
CRYPTO:SOLUSD 1,745% / 1,171% ❌
CRYPTO:XRPUSD 2,585% / 4,544% ✅
CRYPTO:ADAUSD 338% / 353% ✅
CRYPTO:AVAXUSD 130% / 160% ✅
CRYPTO:DOGEUSD 13,690% / 16,432% ✅
CRYPTO:TRXUSD 414% / 466% ✅
CRYPTO:DOTUSD -16% / -7% ✅
CRYPTO:LINKUSD 1,161% / 2,164% ✅
CRYPTO:TONUSD 25% / 47% ✅
CRYPTO:MATICUSD 1,769% / 1,587% ❌
CRYPTO:ICPUSD 70% / 50% ❌
CRYPTO:SHIBUSD -20% / -19% ✅
CRYPTO:LTCUSD 486% / 718% ✅
CRYPTO:BCHUSD -4% / 3% ✅
CRYPTO:LEOUSD 102% / 151% ✅
CRYPTO:ATOMUSD 46% / 91% ✅
CRYPTO:UNIUSD -16% / 1% ✅
CRYPTO:ETCUSD 283% / 414% ✅
CRYPTO:OKBUSD 1,286% / 1,935% ✅
CRYPTO:XLMUSD 1,471% / 1,592% ✅
CRYPTO:INJUSD 830% / 1,035% ✅
CRYPTO:OPUSD 138% / 195% ✅
CRYPTO:NEARUSD 23% / 44% ✅
Backtest result analysis:
Assuming we have an initial investment amount of $10,000 spread evenly across each asset since the creation of each asset, it would have provided the following results.
Standard DCA Strategy results:
Average percent return: 4,998.65%
Profit: $499,865
Closing balance: $509,865
Smart DCA Strategy results:
Average percent return: 7,906.03%
Profit: $790,603
Closing balance: $800,603
JAN 2023 -> JAN 2024:
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD 47% / 66% ✅
CRYPTO:ETHUSD 26% / 33% ✅
CRYPTO:BNBUSD 15% / 17% ✅
CRYPTO:SOLUSD 272% / 394% ✅
CRYPTO:XRPUSD 7% / 12% ✅
CRYPTO:ADAUSD 43% / 59% ✅
CRYPTO:AVAXUSD 116% / 151% ✅
CRYPTO:DOGEUSD 8% / 14% ✅
CRYPTO:TRXUSD 48% / 65% ✅
CRYPTO:DOTUSD 24% / 35% ✅
CRYPTO:LINKUSD 83% / 124% ✅
CRYPTO:TONUSD 7% / 21% ✅
CRYPTO:MATICUSD -3% / 7% ✅
CRYPTO:ICPUSD 161% / 196% ✅
CRYPTO:SHIBUSD 1% / 8% ✅
CRYPTO:LTCUSD -15% / -7% ✅
CRYPTO:BCHUSD 47% / 68% ✅
CRYPTO:LEOUSD 9% / 11% ✅
CRYPTO:ATOMUSD 1% / 15% ✅
CRYPTO:UNIUSD 9% / 23% ✅
CRYPTO:ETCUSD 27% / 40% ✅
CRYPTO:OKBUSD 21% / 30% ✅
CRYPTO:XLMUSD 11% / 19% ✅
CRYPTO:INJUSD 477% / 446% ❌
CRYPTO:OPUSD 77% / 91% ✅
CRYPTO:NEARUSD 78% / 95% ✅
Backtest result analysis:
Assuming we have an initial investment amount of $10,000 spread evenly across each asset for the duration of 2023, it would have provided the following results.
Standard DCA Strategy results:
Average percent return: 61.42%
Profit: $6,142
Closing balance: $16,142
Smart DCA Strategy results:
Average percent return: 78.19%
Profit: $7,819
Closing balance: $17,819
IBIT Premium to CoinbaseThe BTC ETF premium indicator for TradingView is a specialized tool designed to measure and visualize the premium or discount of the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), an investment vehicle that holds Bitcoin, relative to the actual price of Bitcoin on the Coinbase exchange. This indicator can be particularly insightful for traders interested in the BTC securities market and those analyzing the demand for Bitcoin as reflected by institutional investment products.
#### Description:
The BTC ETF premium indicator in TradingView leverages an advanced Pine Script algorithm to calculate the premium (or discount) percentage of IBIT compared to the spot price of Bitcoin (BTC/USD) on Coinbase. The premium is a critical insight that reflects market sentiment and potentially arbitrage opportunities between the trust's share price and the underlying cryptocurrency asset.
Here's how the indicator works:
1. **Calculation Methodology:**
- **Implied Bitcoin Price of IBIT:** We determine the implied price of Bitcoin within IBIT by dividing the IBIT closing price by the known ratio of Bitcoin per share.
- **IBIT Premium to Coinbase:** The percentage premium is then calculated as:
$$\text{IBIT Premium} = \frac{(\text{Implied Bitcoin Price of IBIT } - \text{Actual Bitcoin Price on Coinbase})}{\text{Actual Bitcoin Price on Coinbase}} \times 100$$
- This calculation is performed using the closing prices on a per-minute basis to ensure timely and accurate analysis.
2. **Visualization:** The indicator plots the premium as a step line chart, making it easy to visualize changes over time. A dynamic label accompanies the plot, displaying the implied Bitcoin price, the actual percentage premium or discount, and whether the premium is trending up or down compared to the previous day's value.
3. **Usage Scenario:** Traders can use this indicator to monitor the live premium 24/7 and analyze how it behaves during different market conditions, including when the equity market, where IBIT is traded, is closed.
#### Additional Features:
- **Color-Coding:** The premium is color-coded in green when positive (premium) and in red when negative (discount), aiding quick visual assessment.
- **Zero-Line Reference:** A horizontal line is drawn at zero to easily identify when IBIT is trading at par with the spot price of Bitcoin.
- **Real-Time Label Updates:** The label updates in real time with the latest premium/discount information and includes an arrow to signify the trend direction.
#### Access and Usage:
The indicator can be favorited or added to your TradingView charts. You are also welcome to use the source code as a foundation for further customization to suit your trading strategies.
#### Notes:
Please consider that the IBIT has specific trading hours, and the indicator can show live changes even when its market is closed, which might lead to discrepancies from official static data. For best performance, use this indicator alongside the IBIT candlestick chart on TradingView.
Stablecoin Market Cap RiskThe Stablecoins Market Cap Risk indicator serves as a valuable risk oscillator for Bitcoin on a macro scale . This metric is derived by aggregating the market capitalization of CRYPTOCAP:USDT (Tether) and CRYPTOCAP:USDC (USD Coin), subsequently dividing this combined value by CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL (total market capitalization). The resulting figure is further normalized through linear regression.
The regression in question:
drive.google.com
However, it is essential to acknowledge that this model's reliability may diminish over time, as it is based solely on data from the most recent 4.5 years of cryptocurrency market trends. Consequently, adaptations and enhancements to the model are anticipated in the future to ensure its continued relevance and accuracy.
GBTC Premium to CoinbaseThe BTC ETF premium indicator for TradingView is a specialized tool designed to measure and visualize the premium or discount of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), an investment vehicle that holds Bitcoin, relative to the actual price of Bitcoin on the Coinbase exchange. This indicator can be particularly insightful for traders interested in the BTC securities market and those analyzing the demand for Bitcoin as reflected by institutional investment products.
#### Description:
The BTC ETF premium indicator in TradingView leverages an advanced Pine Script algorithm to calculate the premium (or discount) percentage of GBTC compared to the spot price of Bitcoin (BTC/USD) on Coinbase. The premium is a critical insight that reflects market sentiment and potentially arbitrage opportunities between the trust's share price and the underlying cryptocurrency asset.
Here's how the indicator works:
1. **Calculation Methodology:**
- **Implied Bitcoin Price of GBTC:** We determine the implied price of Bitcoin within GBTC by dividing the GBTC closing price by the known ratio of Bitcoin per share.
- **GBTC Premium to Coinbase:** The percentage premium is then calculated as:
$$\text{GBTC Premium} = \frac{(\text{Implied Bitcoin Price of GBTC} - \text{Actual Bitcoin Price on Coinbase})}{\text{Actual Bitcoin Price on Coinbase}} \times 100$$
- This calculation is performed using the closing prices on a per-minute basis to ensure timely and accurate analysis.
2. **Visualization:** The indicator plots the premium as a step line chart, making it easy to visualize changes over time. A dynamic label accompanies the plot, displaying the implied Bitcoin price, the actual percentage premium or discount, and whether the premium is trending up or down compared to the previous day's value.
3. **Usage Scenario:** Traders can use this indicator to monitor the live premium 24/7 and analyze how it behaves during different market conditions, including when the equity market, where GBTC is traded, is closed.
#### Additional Features:
- **Color-Coding:** The premium is color-coded in green when positive (premium) and in red when negative (discount), aiding quick visual assessment.
- **Zero-Line Reference:** A horizontal line is drawn at zero to easily identify when GBTC is trading at par with the spot price of Bitcoin.
- **Real-Time Label Updates:** The label updates in real time with the latest premium/discount information and includes an arrow to signify the trend direction.
#### Access and Usage:
The indicator can be favorited or added to your TradingView charts. You are also welcome to use the source code as a foundation for further customization to suit your trading strategies.
#### Notes:
Please consider that the GBTC has specific trading hours, and the indicator can show live changes even when its market is closed, which might lead to discrepancies from official static data. For best performance, use this indicator alongside the GBTC candlestick chart on TradingView.
MicroStrategy / Bitcoin Market Cap RatioThis indicator offers a unique analytical perspective by comparing the market capitalization of MicroStrategy (MSTR) with that of Bitcoin (BTC) . Designed for investors and analysts interested in the correlation between MicroStrategy's financial performance and the Bitcoin market, the script calculates and visualizes the ratio of MSTR's market capitalization to Bitcoin's market capitalization.
Key Features:
Start Date: The script considers data starting from July 28, 2020, aligning with MicroStrategy's initial announcement to invest in Bitcoin.
Data Sources: It retrieves real-time data for MSTR's total shares outstanding, MSTR's stock price, and BTC's market capitalization.
Market Cap Calculations: The script calculates MicroStrategy's market cap by multiplying its stock price with the total shares outstanding. It then forms a ratio of MSTR's market cap to BTC's market cap.
Bollinger Bands: To add a layer of analysis, the script includes Bollinger Bands around the ratio, with customizable parameters for length and multiplier. These bands can help identify overbought or oversold conditions in the relationship between MSTR's and BTC's market values.
The indicator plots the MSTR/BTC market cap ratio and the Bollinger Bands, providing a clear visual representation of the relationship between these two market values over time.
This indicator is ideal for users who are tracking the impact of Bitcoin's market movements on MicroStrategy's valuation or vice versa. It provides a novel way to visualize and analyze the interconnectedness of a leading cryptocurrency asset and a major corporate investor in the space.
Volume Sum BTC ETFsThis volume indicator tracks the volume of these 10 bitcoin ETFS:
AMEX:GBTC, NASDAQ:IBIT, AMEX:BTCO, AMEX:ARKB, AMEX:HODL, AMEX:EZBC, NASDAQ:BRRR, AMEX:BTCW, AMEX:DEFI, AMEX:BITB
It multiplies the traded shares with the hl2 share price and then devides the volume by the bitcoin hl2 price.
You can change to usd volume in settings.
Enjoy!
Notice that historical volume comes from etfs which traded already before launch like GBTC.
Also notice that that btc trades also when tradfi markets are closed, so then the indicator will show the last available volume. Something to fix later.
MVRV Z-ScoreThe MVRV ratio was created by Murad Mahmudov & David Puell. It simply compares Market Cap to Realised Cap, presenting a ratio (MVRV = Market Cap / Realised Cap). The MVRV Z-Score is a later version, refining the metric by normalising the peaks and troughs of the data.
Qu_Trend+
composition
- Consists of a thick trend line and a thin yellow line.
- The largest (green/red) lines indicate rising and falling markets.
- This line represents the 13-candle moving average of Tilson T3.
- The reason for 13 candles is because it best matches the recent market price based on Bitcoin.
- This value cannot be changed, so if you need it, please modify the public code and use it.
- The yellow line is the MA20 line, the ‘Bollinger Band center line’
(UI will show whether this line has been breakout)
- The same algorithm as 20 of the basic moving average (close standard) is applied.
- The algorithm for breakthrough is calculated based on real-time prices, not based on closing prices.
An additional short-term SMA is created, and whether it crosses the SMA is classified as a breakout/resistance.
How to use it
- If the trend line becomes gentle, it may indicate a change in trend when + MA20 is broken.
- While the slope of the trend line is steep, it indicates that the trend is difficult to change.
(If the trend changes at this time, it is likely to move sideways)
- If the trend changes continuously, it is a sideways market.
At this time, watch out for the movement of the end point where the sideways trend ends.
PlayBit EMAPlayBit EMA Indicator
Introducing the PlayBit EMA, a highly esteemed technical analysis tool within the PlayBit Community and a personal favorite of Bitcoin Playboy. This indicator has cemented its place as a staple among traders for its simplicity and effectiveness.
Key Features:
PB EMA: Utilizes two Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) to identify support and resistance zones and help identify potential reversal points.
Dynamic Fill Color:
The fill color will change based on if the closing price is above, below, or in between.
This indicator is not only a reflection of market dynamics but also an essential tool for traders looking to make informed decisions based on the relationship between price action and moving averages. Whether you're a seasoned trader or just starting out, the PlayBit EMA is an invaluable addition to your trading arsenal.
Forex Master Pattern Screener 2Overview
The Forex Master Pattern Screener 2 is based on the Master Pattern, which includes contraction, expansion, and trend phases. This indicator is designed to identify and visualize market volatility, market phases, multi-timeframe contractions, liquidity points, and pivot calculations. It provides a clear image of the market's expansion and contraction phases. It's based on an alternative form of technical analysis that reveals the psychological patterns of financial markets through three phases.
Unlike the other master pattern indicators that just use highs and lows and aren't as accurate for finding contractions, this one uses actual measures of volatility to find extremely low levels of volatility and has customizable parameters depending on what you want to do.
What is the Forex Master Pattern?
The Forex Master Pattern is a framework that revolves around understanding market cycles, comprising the three main phases: contraction, expansion, and trend.
Contraction Phase: During this phase, the market has low volatility and is consolidating within a narrow range. Institutional volume tends to be low, and it's suggested to avoid trade entries during this period.
Expansion Phase: Volatility starts to increase, and there start to be bigger moves in price. Institutional traders start accumulating positions in this phase, and they might manipulate prices to draw in retail traders, creating liquidity for their own buying or selling goals.
Trend Phase: This final phase completes the market cycle. Institutional traders begin taking profits, leading to a reversal. This triggers panic among retail traders, resulting in liquidations and stops. This generates liquidity for institutional traders to profit, leaving retail traders with overvalued positions.
Value Line:
The "value line" acts as the fair value zone or the neutral belief zone where buyers and sellers agree on fair value. It can be likened to the center of gravity and is created during contraction zones.
Applications:
Identifying these phases and understanding the value lines can help traders determine the market's general direction and make better trading decisions.
This isn't a strategy but a concept explaining market behavior, allowing traders to develop various strategies based on these principles
The contractions, which are based on volatility calculations, can help you find out when big moves will occur, known as expansions.
How traders can use this indicator
1. Identifying Market Phases:
Contraction Phase: Look for periods where the market has low volatility and is contracting, indicated by a narrow range and highlighted by the contraction box. During this phase, traders prepare for a breakout but usually avoid making new trades until a clearer trend emerges.
Expansion Phase: When the indicator signals an expansion, it suggests that the market is moving out of consolidation and may be beginning a new trend. Traders might look for entry points here, anticipating a continuation of the trend.
Trend Phase: As the market enters this phase, traders look for signs of sustained movement in one direction and consider positions that benefit from this trend.
2. Multi-Timeframe Analysis:
By looking at multiple timeframes, traders can get a broader view of the market. For instance, a contraction phase in a shorter timeframe within an expansion phase in a longer timeframe might suggest a pullback in an overall uptrend. This indicator comes with a MTF contraction screener that is customizable.
2. Fair Value Lines:
The fair value acts like a "center of gravity.". Traders could use this as a reference point for understanding market sentiment and potential reversal points. This indicator shows these values in the middle of the contraction boxes.
3. Volatility Analysis:
This indicator's volatility settings can help traders understand the market's current volatility state. High volatility indicates a more active market with larger, faster moves, while low volatility might suggest caution and tighter stop-losses or take-profits. If volatility is contracting, then an expansion is imminent. This indicator shows the volatility with percentile ranks in 0-100 values and also alerts you when volatility is contracting, aka the contraction phase.
Volatility Calculations:
This indicator uses a geometric standard deviation to measure volatility based on historical price data. This metric quantifies the variability of price changes over a specified lookback period and then computes a percentile rank within a defined sample period. This percentile calculation helps evaluate the current volatility compared to historical levels.
Based on the percentile rank, the indicator sets thresholds to determine whether the current volatility is within a range considered "contraction" or not. For example, if there are really low levels of volatility on the percentile rank, then there is currently a contraction phase. The indicator also compares the volatility value against a moving average, where values above the current moving average value signal the expansion phase.
Multi-Timeframe Analysis (MTF):
This indicator comes with a multi-timeframe table that shows contractions for 5 different timeframes, and the table is customizable.
Bands:
This indicator comes with bands that are constructed based on the statistical calculations of the standard deviation applied to the log-transformed closing prices. It is commonly assumed that the distribution of prices fits some type of right-skewed distribution. To remove most of the skewness, you can use a log transformation , which makes the distribution more symmetrical and easier to analyze, thus the use of these bands . These bands are in the 2 standard deviation range. You can use these bands to trade at extreme levels. The band parameter is based on the contraction volatility lookback, which is in the Volatility Model Settings tab.
Ways the bands could be used with the contractions:
1. Identifying Breakout trades:
Contraction Zones: These zones indicate periods of low volatility where the market is consolidating. There are usually narrow price ranges, which are considered a build-up phase before a significant price move in any direction.
Bands: When the contraction zone occurs, you might notice the bands tightening around the price on smaller lookback periods, reflecting the decreased volatility. A continuous widening of the bands could then signal the beginning of an expansion phase, indicating a potential breakout opportunity.
2. Enhancing Trade Timing:
Before the Breakout: During the contraction phase, the bands might move closer together, reflecting the lower volatility. You can monitor this phase closely and prepare for a potential expansion. The bands can provide additional confirmation; for instance, a price move toward one of the bands might show an extreme occurrence and might show what the direction of the breakout could be.
After the breakout: Once the price breaks out of the contraction zone and goes to the expansion phase, and if it coincides with the bands widening significantly, it could reinforce the strength and potential sustainability of the new trend, providing a clearer entry.
3. Price-touching bands during a contraction:
If the price repeatedly touches one of the bands during a contraction phase, it might suggest a buildup of pressure in that direction. For example, if the price is consistently touching the upper band even though the bands are narrow, it might suggest bullish pressure that could occur once the expansion phase begin.
4. Price at the band extreme levels during Expansion:
If the price is at the extreme levels of the bands once the expansion phase occurs, it might indicate unsustainable levels and a low probability of the price continuing beyond those levels. Potentially signaling that a reversal will occur. Some trades could use these extremes to place entries during the expansion phases.
Liquidity Levels:
This script comes with liquidity points, whose functionality goes towards identifying pivotal levels in price action, focusing on swing highs and swing lows in the market. These points represent areas where significant buying (for swing lows) or selling (for swing highs) activity has occurred, implying potential levels or resistance in the price movement.
These liquidity points, often identified as highs and lows, are points where market participants have shown interest in the past. These levels can act as psychological indications where traders might place orders, leading to increased trading activity when these levels are approached or breached. When used with the Forex Master Pattern phases, liquidity levels can enhance trades placed with this indicator. For instance, if the market is expanding and approaches a significant liquidity level, there might be a higher chance of a breakout or reversal, showing a possible entry or exit point.
Liquidity Levels in the Contraction Phase:
Accumulation and Distribution: During the contraction phase, liquidity levels can indicate where huge positions are likely accumulating or distributing quietly. If price is near a known liquidity level and in a contraction phase, it might suggest that a large market player is building a position in anticipation of the next move.
Breakout Points: Liquidity levels can also give clues about where price could go after the breakout from the contraction phase. A break above a liquidity level might indicate a strong move to come as the market overcomes significant selling pressure.
Liquidity Levels in Expansion Phase:
Direct Confirmation: As the expansion phase begins, breaking through liquidity levels can confirm the new trend's direction. If the price moves past these levels with huge volume, it might indicate that the market has enough momentum to continue the trend.
Target Areas: Liquidity levels can act as target areas during the expansion phase. Traders using this indicator could look to take profits if the price approaches these levels, possibly expecting a reaction from the market.
Bitcoin Price to Volume per $1 FeeTransaction value to transaction fee:
The Bitcoin network's efficiency, usability and volume scalability has been improving over time and this can be measured by dividing the average transaction volume by the transaction fee.
The indicator give us:
Price to volume per $1 fee = BTC price / (avg tx value / avg tx fee)
A low ratio of "Price to volume per $1 fee" indicates that the Bitcoin network is being used for high volumes in comparison to the Bitcoin price, which means that the network is cost-effective compared to the price. On the other hand, a high "Price to volume per $1 fee" suggests that the average transaction size is smaller than the price of Bitcoin, which means that the network is less cost-effective compared to the Bitcoin price.
Note that the dynamics of transaction fees may change over time as new use cases emerge in the Bitcoin chain. These use cases include L2s such as Stacks, where DeFi applications can run, and Bitcoin Ordinals.
It's worth mentioning that Bitcoin is not only a cost-effective way of transferring value, but also highly energy efficient. Despite receiving criticism for its energy consumption, when we compare its energy usage to other industries (such as banking and gold) and correlate it with the transaction volumes, we can easily conclude that Bitcoin's energy efficiency is remarkable when compared to other methods of transferring value.
BTC Price to Hashrate Delta Ratio with MAHistorically, Hashrate and Bitcoin prices have a strong correlation. When hashrate increases more than Bitcoin price, it indicates a rise in Bitcoin price soon.
This indicator uses the formula:
Price/hashrate delta ratio = period price delta / period hashrate delta
Whenever the ratio between the price and hashrate of Bitcoin is positive, it indicates that the price is increasing at a faster rate than the hashrate. This, in turn, means that Bitcoin is becoming more expensive compared to any variations occurring in the hashrate. Using the Price/Hashrate Delta ratio, we can determine whether Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued in relation to the hashrate. This can be a helpful indicator for assessing the current market conditions.
Bitcoin Google Trends OverlayThis indicator overlays Bitcoin Google trends data starting from 16/12/2018 until 10/12/2023. To have more recent data, you will need to update the data points manually.
If it is not showing properly, you need to plot the indicator to a new scale. Try also to use a logarithmic scale to better correlate the Bitcoin Google Trends data.
Interpretation:
Google Trends data and the Bitcoin price are very correlated. Google Trends data is a good indicator of market sentiment, but it usually lags.
TTP Big Whale ExplorerThe Big Whale Explorer is an indicator that looks into the ratio of large wallets deposits vs withdrawals.
Whales tend to sale their holding when they transfer their holdings into exchanges and they tend to hold when they withdraw.
In this overlay indicator you'll be able to see in an oscillator format the moves of large wallets.
The moves above 1.5 turn into red symbolising that they are starting to distribute. This can eventually have an impact in the price by causing anything from a mild pullback to a considerable crash depending on how much is being actually sold into the market.
Moves below 0.5 mean that the large whales are heavily accumulating and withdrawing. During these periods price could still pullback or even crash but eventually the accumulation can take prices to new highs.
Instructions:
1) Load INDEX:BTCUSD or BNC:BLX to get the most historic data as possible
2) use the daily timeframe
3) load the indicator into the chart
USDT+USDC+BUSD Market CapThis Pine Script indicator visualizes the combined market capitalization of three prominent stablecoins: USDT, USDC, and BUSD, on a daily basis.
It fetches the daily closing market caps of these stablecoins and sums them. The resulting line graph is displayed in its own separate pane below the main price chart.
The line is color-coded: green on days when the market cap is increasing compared to the previous day, and red when it's decreasing.
OI Volume Oscillator Cross DynamicsThe OI Volume Oscillator Cross Dynamics is a custom indicator designed to analyze the relationship between Open Interest (OI) and Volume Oscillator in the cryptocurrency markets. This tool aims to assist traders in identifying potential market sentiment shifts, enabling them to make informed trading decisions based on the dynamic interplay of these key market components.
Key Components:
Open Interest (OI): This component represents the total number of outstanding derivative contracts, such as futures and options, that have not been settled. Open Interest provides insights into market participation and trader commitment, offering a broader perspective on the flow of money into the market.
Volume Oscillator: The Volume Oscillator is a momentum indicator that showcases the difference between two volume moving averages. It is instrumental in identifying bullish or bearish market trends by providing insights into buying and selling pressure in the market.
Functional Dynamics:
Crossover Analysis: The indicator identifies points where the Volume Oscillator crosses above or below the Open Interest, marking potential shifts in market sentiment. These crossover points are visually represented, making them easily identifiable for analysis.
Visual Cues: The indicator uses visual shapes and colors to enhance interpretability. Bullish crossovers are marked with green upward triangles, while bearish crossovers are represented by red downward triangles.
Customization: The indicator allows for customization of the Volume Oscillator’s sensitivity through a multiplier, enabling traders to adjust the indicator according to their trading strategy and market outlook.
Usage Guidelines:
Bullish Scenario: A crossover of the Volume Oscillator above the Open Interest is interpreted as a bullish signal, indicating potential upward price movement due to increased buying pressure or trading activity.
Bearish Scenario: A crossover of the Volume Oscillator below the Open Interest is seen as a bearish signal, suggesting potential downward price movement due to increased selling pressure or reduced trading activity.
Conclusion:
The OI Volume Oscillator Cross Dynamics indicator is designed to provide traders with a nuanced perspective of market activity through the combined analysis of Open Interest and Volume Oscillator. Its design aims to offer valuable insights, allowing for a strategic approach to trading based on the observed market dynamics.
The code is open source and utilizes Binance info but you can alter the code to meet your needs to go beyond just Bitcoin if needed.
Crypto Daily WatchList And Screener [M]
Hi, this is a watchlist and screener indicator designed for traders in the field of cryptocurrencies who want to monitor developments in other currency pairs and indices.
The indicator consists of two tables. One of them is the table containing indices such as BTC dominance, total, total2, which allows you to track market developments and changes. In this table, you will find price information, daily change, stochastic, and trend information.
The other table includes cryptocurrencies like BTC/USDT, ETH/USDT, DOT/USDT, and more. In this table, you will see real-time prices, daily volume, daily change, stochastic, the correlation coefficient between the pair and Bitcoin, and the trend value calculated based on MACD.
The "Customize" section in the settings enables you to personalize the appearance of the tables according to your preferences.
Bitcoin to GOLD [presentTrading]**Introduction and How it is Different**
Unlike traditional indicators, the BTGR offers a unique perspective on market sentiment and asset valuation by juxtaposing two seemingly disparate assets: Bitcoin, the digital gold, and Gold, the traditional store of value. This article introduces an advanced version of this ratio, complete with upper and lower bands calculated using standard deviations. These bands add an extra layer of analytical depth, allowing for more nuanced trading strategies.
BTCUSD 12h bigger picture
**Economic Principles**
The BTGR is rooted in the economic principles of asset valuation and market sentiment. Gold has long been considered a safe haven asset, a place where investors park their money during times of economic uncertainty. Bitcoin, on the other hand, is often viewed as a high-risk, high-reward investment. By comparing the two, the BTGR provides insights into the broader market sentiment.
- Risk Appetite: A high BTGR indicates a bullish sentiment towards riskier assets like Bitcoin.
- Market Uncertainty: A low BTGR suggests a bearish sentiment and a flight to the safety of Gold.
- Asset Diversification: The BTGR can be used as a tool for portfolio diversification, helping investors balance risk and reward.
**How to Use It**
Setting Up the Indicator
- Platform: The indicator is designed for use on TradingView.
- Time Frame: A 480-minute time frame is recommended for more accurate signals.
- Parameters: The moving average is set at 200 periods, and the standard deviation is calculated over the same period.
**Trading Signal**
Long Entry: Consider going long when the BTGR crosses above the upper band.
Short Entry: Consider going short when the BTGR crosses below the lower band.
Note: Due to the issue that the number of trading is less than about 100 times, the corresponding strategy is not allowed to publish.
Coinbase/Binance Premium Histogram PCPR1NCIPALSummary of the "Coinbase/Binance Premium Histogram" Indicator:
The "Coinbase/Binance Premium Histogram" is a custom indicator developed for trading platforms that support the Pine Script language, primarily TradingView. Its primary function is to visualize the price differential or "premium" between Bitcoin's (BTC) price on two major exchanges: Coinbase and Binance.
Key Features:
Data Sources: The indicator pulls the closing prices of Bitcoin (BTC) from both the Coinbase (BTCUSD) and Binance (BTCUSDT) exchanges.
Premium Calculation: The indicator computes the premium by subtracting the Coinbase price from the Binance price.
If the result is positive, this means the BTC price on Binance is higher than on Coinbase.
Conversely, if the result is negative, this indicates that the BTC price on Coinbase is higher than on Binance.
Histogram Visualization: The price differential or "premium" is then plotted as a histogram.
Bars above the zero line (in blue) represent instances where the Binance price is higher than the Coinbase price.
Bars below the zero line (in red) represent instances where the Coinbase price is higher than the Binance price.
Color Coding: The histogram uses color coding to easily differentiate between positive and negative premiums:
Blue Bars: Indicate a positive premium, meaning BTC on Binance is priced higher than on Coinbase.
Red Bars: Indicate a negative premium, implying BTC on Coinbase is priced higher than on Binance.
Purpose: Traders and investors can use this indicator to spot potential arbitrage opportunities between the two exchanges or for signs of institutional buying. A significant difference in prices could mean a chance to buy BTC cheaper on one platform and sell at a higher price on the other, thereby capitalizing on the price disparity. However, it's essential to consider transaction fees, potential transfer delays, and other associated risks before pursuing any arbitrage strategy.
Blackrock Spot ETF Premium BTCUSD (COINBASE) V1I created an indicator that takes the spot BTC/USD pair from major exchanges and compares it to the Spot BTC/USD pair on Coinbase that institutions will use for their Spot ETFs.
Blackrock Spot ETF Premium BTCUSD (COINBASE)
I suspect we will see a new "Kimchi Premium" where the Spot ETF pressures from institutions will raise the Coinbase Bitcoin price by a factor of 10-50% premium to the other exchanges.
Naturally excess coins from other exchanges will flow into Coinbase to capture this.
This indicator should be good for some time until one of the other exchanges delist or stop using BTCUSD "spot" If it breaks it I will update it if I remember.
FederalXBT,
Bitcoin as Heikin Ashi Candles with Pivot PointsI use this Indicator to show me where Bitcoin is heading.
Most pine programmers are not aware of the possibility to combine Heikin Ashi Candles with Pivot Points that easy.
You can switch between Traditional, Fibonacci, Woodie, Classic, DM, and Camarilla as usual.
When on a Intraday Chart it will automaticly calculate daily Pivots for Haikin Ashi candles.
On the daily Chart it will calculate weekly Pivots, and when switching to monthly candles it will calculate Pivots for one year.
There is also an option where you can deactivate all support and resistance lines, except for today. Meaning you will see the Central Pivot Point on all previous days only.
This is a lagging indicator!
When you can see Altcoin correlation with BTC then both might get pretty strong leading indicators.
I am pleased to hear some advice/wishes to improve this script.
It is still in the beginning and some updates will follow, I promise.
Happy Trading!
MAD Volatility PercentileMean Absolute Deviation (MAD) is a statistical measure that tells you how spread out or variable a set of data points is. It calculates the average distance of each data point from the mean (average) of the data set. MAD helps you understand how much individual values differ from the average value. It's a way to measure the overall "average distance" of the data points from the center point.
Indicator Overview:
This indicator measures market volatility using Mean Absolute Deviation of returns. The MAD Volatility Percentile Indicator calculates and represents market volatility as a percentile. The lower the percentile, the lower the volatility, and the higher the percentile value is, the higher the volatility is.
Understanding Volatility:
Lower percentiles signify a lower volatility market environment, reflecting reduced volatility, while higher percentiles indicate increased volatility and significant price movements. The indicator also comes with an SMA to see when the burst of higher volatility occur. You can also change the sample length on the indicators option. You can consider a big move occurring when the percentile value is above the SMA.
Application
Generally when the Mean Absolute Deviation Volatility Percentile is low, then this means that the volatility is low and a expansion could happen soon, which means a big move will occur soon. This indicator can also protect you from entering a trade that will not have any significant moves for a while.
This indicator is not a directional indicator but it can be applied with directional indicators, and is extremely versatile. For example you can use it with momentum indicators and if there is low volatility and bullish momentum then this can be a signal to potentially place a long position.
Features:
The percentile length sets the lookback of the percentile which calculates the percentile of the Mean Absolute Deviation of returns.
Sample length: Gets the volatility sample (returns)
SMA Length: The SMA of the percentile. Used to find when a move can be considered as an "expansion"
Alerts: You can also enable color alerts that flash when the volatility is at extremely low levels which can signify that a big move could happen soon.
This is an example of the alerts that the indicator comes with.
Extreme Reversal SignalThe Extreme Reversal Signal is designed to signal potential pivot points when the price of an asset becomes extremely overbought or oversold. Extreme conditions typically signal a brief or extensive price reversal, offering valuable entry or exit points. It's important to note that this indicator may produce multiple signals, making it essential to corroborate these signals with other forms of analysis to determine their validity. While the default settings provide valuable insights, it might be beneficial to experiment with different configurations to ensure the indicator's efficacy.
Two primary conditions define extremely overbought and oversold states. The first condition is that the price must deviate by two standard deviations from the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). The second condition is that the 3-day SMA of the 14-day Stochastic Oscillator (STO) derived from the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above or below the upper or lower limit.
Oversold states arise when the first condition is met and the 3-day SMA of the 14-day Stochastic RSI falls below the lower limit, suggesting a buy signal. These are visually represented by green triangles below the price bars. Overbought states arise when the first condition is met and the 3-day SMA of the 14-day Stochastic RSI rises above the upper limit, suggesting a sell signal. These are visually represented by red triangles above the price bars. It's also possible to set up automated alerts to get notifications when either of these two conditions is met to avoid missing out.
While this indicator has traditionally identified overbought and oversold conditions in various different assets, past performance does not guarantee future results. Therefore, it is advisable to supplement this indicator with other technical tools. For instance, trend indicators can greatly improve the decision-making process when planning for entries and exit points.
