Silver Projection DivergenceSILVER PROJECTION DIVERGENCE
Standardized Fair Value Divergence Oscillator
OVERVIEW
The Silver Projection Divergence oscillator is the companion indicator to the Silver Macro Projection Model. It quantifies the gap between silver's actual price and its projected fair value, displaying this divergence as a standardized z-score. This format makes it easier to identify extreme conditions and time entries/exits based on mean reversion.
HOW IT WORKS
The oscillator converts raw divergence (Actual Silver - Projected Silver) to a z-score by normalizing against its historical distribution:
Z-Score > 0 - Silver trading ABOVE projected value (overvalued)
Z-Score < 0 - Silver trading BELOW projected value (undervalued)
Z-Score > 2 - Extreme condition (2 standard deviations)
VISUAL ELEMENTS
Main Plot
Green line/histogram - Negative divergence (undervalued)
Red line/histogram - Positive divergence (overvalued)
Color intensity increases when divergence is expanding
Reference Lines
+2 sigma / -2 sigma (dashed) - Extreme zones
+1 sigma / -1 sigma (dotted) - Moderate deviation
Zero line - Fair value equilibrium
Signal Markers
Green Triangle (bottom) - Z-score crosses below -2 (STRONG BUY)
Red Triangle (top) - Z-score crosses above +2 (STRONG SELL)
Background
Light red background - Extreme overvaluation (Z > 2)
Light green background - Extreme undervaluation (Z < -2)
SIGNAL INTERPRETATION
Z > +2.0 - Extreme Overvaluation - STRONG SELL / Take profits
Z +1.0 to +2.0 - Moderate Overvaluation - Caution / Reduce exposure
Z -1.0 to +1.0 - Fair Value Range - Neutral / Hold
Z -2.0 to -1.0 - Moderate Undervaluation - Accumulate / Scale in
Z < -2.0 - Extreme Undervaluation - STRONG BUY signal
COMPONENT TABLE
The bottom-right table breaks down divergence by factor:
Gold Ratio - Deviation from gold-implied fair value
M2 Supply - Divergence from monetary-implied value
DXY Signal - Dollar strength bullish/bearish indication
Equities - Equity market positioning signal
OVERALL - Combined signal with Z-score
TRADING APPLICATIONS
Mean Reversion Strategy
Enter LONG when Z < -2 and begins rising
Enter SHORT when Z > +2 and begins falling
Use zero-line crossings for trend confirmation
Trend Following Filter
Only take long trades when Z < 0 (undervalued)
Only take short trades when Z > 0 (overvalued)
Divergence Confirmation
Bearish: Price makes new highs while Z-score makes lower highs
Bullish: Price makes new lows while Z-score makes higher lows
ALERTS
Extreme Undervaluation - Z crosses below -2
Extreme Overvaluation - Z crosses above +2
Divergence Turned Positive - Crossed above zero
Divergence Turned Negative - Crossed below zero
COMBINED USAGE
For best results, use both with Silver Macro Projection Model - indicator:
Main Indicator - Visual context of actual vs. projected on price chart
Divergence Oscillator - Precise measurement for timing decisions
The main indicator (Silver Macro Projection Model - ) shows where silver should be; this oscillator shows how extreme the mispricing is and when to act.
Disclaimer: This indicator is for educational purposes only. Past correlations do not guarantee future relationships. Market conditions can alter historical relationships. Always use proper risk management.
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