Fibonacci Renko Candle Trend - AynetThe " Fibonacci Renko Candle Trend - Aynet" Pine Script is an innovative and customizable indicator that merges the concept of Fibonacci retracement levels with Renko charting, a method designed to filter out market noise by focusing purely on price movement. Below is a detailed, scientific explanation of its structure and functionality:
Key Components
1. ATR-Based Renko Chart
ATR Calculation: The script calculates the Average True Range (ATR) over a user-defined period (atrLength). ATR represents market volatility and dynamically determines the Renko box size.
Box Size: The box size is computed as a product of ATR and a user-defined Fibonacci multiplier (fibMultiplier), making it adaptable to changing market conditions.
2. Fibonacci Integration
Fibonacci Levels: Users manually input Fibonacci ratios (e.g., 0.236, 0.382, 0.618, etc.) that are stored in an array. These ratios define potential retracement or extension levels in the Renko chart.
Dynamic Levels: The script iteratively calculates price levels based on the Renko box size and Fibonacci ratios, identifying the next significant level whenever a price crosses a predefined threshold.
3. Renko Candle Construction
Trend Direction: The script dynamically tracks trend changes by comparing the current close price with previous open and close values.
Renko Candles: When price movement exceeds the box size:
Uptrend: A green candle is drawn if the price rises above the current box.
Downtrend: A red candle is drawn if the price falls below the current box.
Coloring: The Renko candles are colored green (uptrend) or red (downtrend) to visually indicate market momentum.
4. Signal Generation
Trend Change Detection: A trend change is identified when the direction of the Renko box changes from upward to downward or vice versa.
Signal Labels: If a trend change occurs, the script generates "LONG" or "SHORT" signals with associated Fibonacci levels. These labels are positioned near the respective candles and displayed with customizable transparency for clarity.
5. Fibonacci Visualization
The script dynamically plots Fibonacci levels as horizontal dashed lines:
Each line corresponds to a specific Fibonacci ratio scaled by the box size.
These lines act as potential support or resistance zones, offering a roadmap for market behavior.
6. User Interface and Customization
Parameters: Users can configure:
ATR period (atrLength).
Fibonacci multipliers and ratios.
Signal label transparency and display settings.
Info Panel: A compact information table displays the computed Renko box size for reference.
Scientific and Trading Use Cases
Noise Filtering: By using Renko charts, the script eliminates time-based noise, allowing traders to focus solely on price action.
Volatility-Based Adaptation: The ATR-based dynamic box size ensures the indicator adapts to market volatility, making it robust across asset classes and market conditions.
Fibonacci-Based Strategy: Incorporating Fibonacci levels provides a structured framework to predict key support and resistance levels, commonly used in retracement and extension strategies.
Signal Precision: By combining Renko and Fibonacci levels, the script identifies trend changes with high precision, aiding traders in timing their entries and exits.
Improvements for Advanced Use
Multi-Timeframe Support: Extend the script to compute Renko levels and Fibonacci ratios across multiple timeframes.
Alert Integration: Add alerts for when price crosses specific Fibonacci levels or when trend changes occur.
Statistical Validation: Enhance the script by integrating a success rate tracker for signals, helping traders evaluate its reliability.
This script is a powerful tool for traders looking for a balance between simplicity and accuracy, leveraging advanced concepts like Fibonacci and Renko to deliver actionable insights.
Concept
Custom Ratio IndicatorThis indicator allows users to compare the price ratio of two customizable trading pairs. By dividing the closing price of the first trading pair by the second, it calculates and plots the resulting ratio on the chart. It is designed for traders who want to analyze correlations or relative performance between two assets. The default pairs are ETHUSDT and BTCUSDT, and users can customize these inputs. The indicator supports high precision to ensure accurate representation of small or large ratios. Additionally, the current ratio is dynamically displayed on the chart for easy reference.
Hourly Time Separator by TraderVolkHourly Time Separator by TraderVolk. Separate each hour or candle by custom vertical lines
Infinity Market Grid -AynetConcept
Imagine viewing the market as a dynamic grid where price, time, and momentum intersect to reveal infinite possibilities. This indicator leverages:
Grid-Based Market Flow: Visualizes price action as a grid with zones for:
Accumulation
Distribution
Breakout Expansion
Volatility Compression
Predictive Dynamic Layers:
Forecasts future price zones using historical volatility and momentum.
Tracks event probabilities like breakout, fakeout, and trend reversals.
Data Science Visuals:
Uses heatmap-style layers, moving waveforms, and price trajectory paths.
Interactive Alerts:
Real-time alerts for high-probability market events.
Marks critical zones for "buy," "sell," or "wait."
Key Features
Market Layers Grid:
Creates dynamic "boxes" around price using fractals and ATR-based volatility.
These boxes show potential future price zones and probabilities.
Volatility and Momentum Waves:
Overlay volatility oscillators and momentum bands for directional context.
Dynamic Heatmap Zones:
Colors the chart dynamically based on breakout probabilities and risk.
Price Path Prediction:
Tracks price trajectory as a moving "wave" across the grid.
How It Works
Grid Box Structure:
Upper and lower price levels are based on ATR (volatility) and plotted dynamically.
Dashed green/red lines show the grid for potential price expansion zones.
Heatmap Zones:
Colors the background based on probabilities:
Green: High breakout probability.
Blue: High consolidation probability.
Price Path Prediction:
Forecasts future price movements using momentum.
Plots these as a dynamic "wave" on the chart.
Momentum and Volatility Waves:
Shows the relationship between momentum and volatility as oscillating waves.
Helps identify when momentum exceeds volatility (potential breakouts).
Buy/Sell Signals:
Triggers when price approaches grid edges with strong momentum.
Provides alerts and visual markers.
Why Is It Revolutionary?
Grid and Wave Synergy:
Combines structural price zones (grid boxes) with real-time momentum and volatility waves.
Predictive Analytics:
Uses momentum-based forecasting to visualize what’s next, not just what’s happening.
Dynamic Heatmap:
Creates a living map of breakout/consolidation zones in real-time.
Scalable for Any Market:
Works seamlessly with forex, crypto, and stocks by adjusting the ATR multiplier and box length.
This indicator is not just a tool but a framework for understanding market dynamics at a deeper level. Let me know if you'd like to take it even further — for example, adding machine learning-inspired probability models or multi-timeframe analysis! 🚀
Multi-LTF Fisher Transform -AYNETJohn F. Ehlers is a renowned figure in the field of financial markets and technical analysis. With a strong background in engineering and digital signal processing (DSP), Ehlers has applied his expertise to the development of innovative technical indicators and trading systems. His work focuses on using mathematical concepts, particularly those from signal processing, to analyze financial data. THANKS.
Simple Explanation of the Code
This Pine Script code calculates and plots Fisher Transform values for up to 6 different timeframes. The user can enable or disable each timeframe, and each Fisher Transform line is displayed in a unique color. Labels at the end of the lines indicate the timeframe.
Key Components of the Code
User Inputs:
Timeframes: The user specifies up to 6 different timeframes (ltf_1, ltf_2, etc.).
Enable/Disable Options: The user can choose which timeframes to enable using checkboxes (enable_1, enable_2, etc.).
Fisher Transform Length: The number of periods (fisher_length) used to calculate the Fisher Transform.
Fisher Transform Calculation:
For each enabled timeframe, the Fisher Transform is calculated using the fisher_transform_func() function:
Lowest Low and Highest High over the given period are fetched.
The Fisher Transform formula normalizes the price and transforms it into an oscillating value.
Dynamic Plotting:
Each Fisher Transform is plotted in a unique color if the corresponding timeframe is enabled.
Labels are added at the end of the lines to indicate the timeframe (e.g., "15m", "1H").
Visual Enhancements:
Unique colors for each line (green, blue, orange, etc.).
Labels dynamically display the timeframe names.
What the Code Does
Calculates Fisher Transform:
For example, for a 15m timeframe:
Finds the lowest low and highest high over the specified period.
Applies the Fisher Transform formula to normalize and smooth the values.
Plots Active Timeframes:
Only the enabled timeframes are plotted.
Each enabled Fisher Transform is plotted as a separate line.
Adds Labels:
At the end of each plotted line, a label indicates which timeframe it represents.
How It Looks
Each active timeframe is displayed as a colored oscillating line on the chart.
Labels like "15m" or "1H" appear at the end of the lines.
Inactive timeframes are not shown.
User Interaction
Input Parameters:
Select the desired timeframes (e.g., "15m", "1H", "4H").
Enable or disable specific timeframes.
Adjust the Fisher Transform period length.
Output:
View Fisher Transform lines for active timeframes.
Use labels to identify which line corresponds to which timeframe.
Why It’s Useful
Multi-Timeframe Analysis:
Helps compare momentum across different timeframes.
Customizable:
Users can enable only the timeframes they want.
Visual Clarity:
Unique colors and labels make it easy to distinguish between timeframes.
If you need further simplifications or more details, feel free to ask! 😊
Position Size Calculator by Dr. Rahul Ware.Position Size Calculator
The Position Size Calculator script helps traders determine the optimal position size for their trades based on their account balance, risk percentage, and stop loss parameters. It calculates the number of shares to buy and the total position size in INR (Indian Rupees), providing a clear and concise way to manage risk effectively.
Key Features:
Account Balance Input: Specify your account balance in INR to tailor the position size calculations to your specific trading capital.
Risk Percentage Input: Define the percentage of your account balance you are willing to risk on each trade, ensuring you stay within your risk tolerance.
Stop Loss Options: Choose between using a fixed stop loss price or a stop loss percentage to calculate the risk amount per share.
Dynamic Stop Loss Line: The script plots a red dotted line representing the stop loss price on the chart, updating dynamically for the last bar.
Comprehensive Table Display: View key metrics, including account balance, risk percentage, amount at risk, current price, stop loss price, stop loss percentage, position size in INR, and the number of shares to buy, all in a neatly formatted table.
This tool is designed to enhance your trading strategy by providing precise position sizing, helping you manage risk effectively and make informed trading decisions. Use this script to optimize your trade sizes and improve your overall trading performance.
Smooth Price Oscillator [BigBeluga]The Smooth Price Oscillator by BigBeluga leverages John Ehlers' SuperSmoother filter to produce a clear and smooth oscillator for identifying market trends and mean reversion points. By filtering price data over two distinct periods, this indicator effectively removes noise, allowing traders to focus on significant signals without the clutter of market fluctuations.
🔵 KEY FEATURES & USAGE
● SuperSmoother-Based Oscillator:
This oscillator uses Ehlers' SuperSmoother filter, applied to two different periods, to create a smooth output that highlights price momentum and reduces market noise. The dual-period application enables a comparison of long-term and short-term price movements, making it suitable for both trend-following and reversion strategies.
// @function SuperSmoother filter based on Ehlers Filter
// @param price (float) The price series to be smoothed
// @param period (int) The smoothing period
// @returns Smoothed price
method smoother_F(float price, int period) =>
float step = 2.0 * math.pi / period
float a1 = math.exp(-math.sqrt(2) * math.pi / period)
float b1 = 2 * a1 * math.cos(math.sqrt(2) * step / period)
float c2 = b1
float c3 = -a1 * a1
float c1 = 1 - c2 - c3
float smoothed = 0.0
smoothed := bar_index >= 4
? c1 * (price + price ) / 2 + c2 * smoothed + c3 * smoothed
: price
smoothed
● Mean Reversion Signals:
The indicator identifies two types of mean reversion signals:
Simple Mean Reversion Signals: Triggered when the oscillator moves between thresholds of 1 and Overbought or between thresholds -1 and Ovesold, providing additional reversion opportunities. These signals are useful for capturing shorter-term corrections in trending markets.
Strong Mean Reversion Signals: Triggered when the oscillator above the overbought (upper band) or below oversold (lower band) thresholds, indicating a strong reversal point. These signals are marked with a "+" symbol on the chart for clear visibility.
Both types of signals are plotted on the oscillator and the main chart, helping traders to quickly identify potential trade entries or exits.
● Dynamic Bands and Thresholds:
The oscillator includes overbought and oversold bands based on a dynamically calculated standard deviation and EMA. These bands provide visual boundaries for identifying extreme price conditions, helping traders anticipate potential reversals at these levels.
● Real-Time Labels:
Labels are displayed at key thresholds and bands to indicate the oscillator’s status: "Overbought," "Oversold," and "Neutral". Mean reversion signals are also displayed on the main chart, providing an at-a-glance summary of current indicator conditions.
● Customizable Threshold Levels:
Traders can adjust the primary threshold and smoothing length according to their trading style. A higher threshold can reduce signal frequency, while a lower setting will provide more sensitivity to market reversals.
The Smooth Price Oscillator by BigBeluga is a refined, noise-filtered indicator designed to highlight mean reversion points with enhanced clarity. By providing both strong and simple reversion signals, as well as dynamic overbought/oversold bands, this tool allows traders to spot potential reversals and trend continuations with ease. Its dual representation on the oscillator and the main price chart offers flexibility and precision for any trading strategy focused on capturing cyclical market movements.
TrendGuard Scalper: SSL + Hama Candle with Consolidation ZonesThis TradingView script brings a powerful scalping strategy that combines the SSL Channel and Hama Candles indicators with a special twist—consolidation detection. Designed for traders looking for consistency in various markets like crypto, forex, and stocks, this strategy highlights clear trend signals, risk management, and helps filter out risky trades during consolidation periods.
Why Use This Strategy?
Clear Trend Detection:
With the SSL Channel, you’ll know exactly when the market is in an uptrend (green) or downtrend (red), giving you straightforward entry points.
Short-Term Trend Precision with Hama Candles:
By calculating unique EMAs for open, high, low, and close, the Hama Candles show the strength and direction of short-term trends. Combined with the Hama Line, it gives you a solid confirmation on whether the trend is strong or about to reverse, allowing for precise entries and exits.
Avoiding Choppy Markets:
Thanks to ATR-based consolidation detection, this strategy identifies low-volatility periods where the market is “choppy” and less predictable. During these times, a yellow background appears on the chart, warning you to hold off on trades, reducing the likelihood of entering losing trades.
Built-In Risk Management:
With adjustable Take Profit and Stop Loss levels based on price movements, you can set and forget your trades, with a safety net if the market turns against you. The strategy automatically closes positions if the price returns to the Hama Candle, keeping your risk low.
How It Works:
Long Position: When both the SSL and Hama indicators show a green trend, and the price is above the Hama Candles, the strategy opens a long position. Take Profit triggers at your chosen risk-to-reward ratio, while Stop Loss protects you just below the Hama Line.
Short Position: When both indicators align in red and the price is below the Hama Candles, the strategy opens a short. Similar to longs, Stop Loss is set just above the Hama Line, and Take Profit is at your defined level.
Start Trading Confidently
Test this strategy with different settings and discover how it can perform across various assets. Whether you're trading Bitcoin, forex pairs, or stocks, this system has the flexibility and robustness to help you spot profitable trends and avoid risky zones. Try it today on a 30-minute timeframe to see how it aligns with your trading goals, and let the consolidation detection guide you away from false signals.
Happy trading, and may the trends be with you! 📈
Percent Trend Change [BigBeluga]The Percent Trend Change indicator is a trend-following tool that provides real-time percentage changes during trends based on entry prices. Using John Ehlers’ Ultimate Smoother filter, it detects trend direction, identifies uptrends and downtrends, and tracks percentage changes during the trend. Additionally, it has a channel that can be toggled on or off, and the width can be customized, adding an extra visual layer to assess trend strength and direction.
NIFTY50:
META:
🔵 IDEA
The Percent Trend Change indicator helps traders visualize the progression of a trend with percentage changes from entry points. It identifies trends and marks percentage changes during the trend, making it easier to assess the strength and sustainability of the ongoing trend.
The use of John Ehlers' Ultimate Smoother filter helps detect trend changes based on consecutive price movements over five bars, making it highly responsive to short- and medium-term trends.
🔵 KEY FEATURES & USAGE
◉ Ultimate Smoother Filter for Trend Detection:
The trend is detected using the Ultimate Smoother filter. If the smoothed line rises five times in a row, the indicator identifies an uptrend. If it falls five times in a row, it identifies a downtrend.
◉ Trend Entry with Price Labels:
The indicator marks trend entry points with up (green) and down (red) triangles. These triangles are labeled with the entry price, allowing traders to track the starting price of the trend.
◉ Percentage Change Labels During Trends:
During a trend, the indicator periodically plots percentage change labels based on the bar period set in the settings.
In an uptrend, positive changes are marked in green, while negative changes are marked in orange. In a downtrend, negative changes are marked in red, while positive changes are marked in orange.
Each plotted percentage label also includes a count of the trend points, allowing traders to track how many times the percentage labels have been plotted during the current trend.
These percentage labels help traders understand how much the price has changed since the trend began and can be used to define potential take-profit targets.
◉ Channel Toggle and Width Customization:
The indicator includes a channel that visually highlights the trend. Traders can toggle this channel on or off, and the width of the channel can be adjusted to match individual preferences. The channel helps visualize the overall trend direction and the range within which price fluctuations occur.
🔵 CUSTOMIZATION
Smoother Length: Adjusts the length of the Ultimate Smoother filter, affecting how responsive the indicator is to price fluctuations.
Bars Percent: Defines how many bars must pass before a new percentage label is plotted. A smaller value plots labels more frequently, while a higher value shows fewer labels.
Channel Width & Show Channel: The width of the channel can be customized, and traders can toggle the channel on or off depending on their preferences.
Color Customization: Traders can customize the colors for the uptrend, downtrend, and percentage labels, providing flexibility in how the indicator is displayed on the chart.
By combining trend-following capabilities with percentage change tracking, the Percent Trend Change indicator offers a powerful tool for identifying trend direction and setting potential take-profit targets. The ability to customize the channel and percentage labels makes it adaptable to various trading strategies.
ICT CheckListCredit to the owner of this script "TalesOfTrader"
The Awakening Checklist indicator is a tool designed to help traders evaluate certain key market conditions and elements before making trading decisions. It consists of a series of questions that the trader must answer using the options "Yes", "No" or "N/A" (not applicable).
“Has Asia Session ended?” : This question aims to determine if the Asian trading session has ended. The answer to this question can influence trading strategies depending on market conditions.
“Have you identified potential medium induction?” : This question concerns the identification of potential average inductions on the market. Recognizing these inductions can help traders anticipate future price movements.
"Have you identified potential PoI's": This question asks about the identification of potential points of interest on the market. These points of interest can indicate areas of significant support or resistance.
"Have you identified in which direction they are creating lQ?" : This question aims to determine in which direction market participants create liquidity (lQ). Understanding this dynamic can help make informed trade decisions.
“Have they induced Asia Range”: This question concerns the induction of the Asian range by market participants. Recognizing this induction can be important in assessing future price movements.
“Have you had a medium induction”: This question asks about the presence of a medium induction on the market. The answer to this question can influence trading prospects.
“Do you have a BoS away from the induction”: This question aims to find out if the trader has an offer (BoS) far from the identified induction. This can be a risk management strategy.
"Doas your induction PoI have imbalance": This question concerns the imbalance of points of interest (PoI) linked to induction. Recognizing this imbalance can help anticipate price movements.
“Do you have a valid target in mind”: This question aims to find out if the trader has a clear trading objective in mind. Having a goal can help guide trading decisions and manage risk.
Forex - Lot size calculatorThis indicator is specifically designed for Forex traders who need a convenient lot size calculator directly on their charts. It allows users to input their account balance, risk percentage, and stop-loss distance in pips to easily determine the appropriate lot size for a given trade, ensuring effective risk management.
Key Features:
Lot Size Calculation: Automatically calculates the lot size based on user-defined inputs: account balance, risk percentage, and stop-loss distance.
Error Handling: The indicator only works with Forex pairs. If applied to non-Forex assets, a clear and prominent red error message will appear in the bottom-right corner of the chart, reminding the user that this script is intended exclusively for Forex trading.
Simple Visualization: The calculated lot size is displayed in an easy-to-read table directly on the chart.
How to Use:
Add the indicator to a Forex chart.
Enter your account balance, risk percentage, and stop-loss pips in the input fields.
The indicator will display the calculated lot size for the chosen Forex pair.
Important Notes:
This script is intended only for Forex assets. If used on other instruments (e.g., stocks, crypto, indices), an error message will be shown.
Always validate lot sizes with your broker, as there can be slight variations depending on broker specifications and leverage settings.
(Early Test) Weekly Seasonality with Dynamic Kelly Criterion# Enhancing Trading Strategies with the Weekly Seasonality Dynamic Kelly Criterion Indicator
Amidst this pursuit to chase price, a common pitfall emerges: an overemphasis on price movements without adequate attention to risk management, probabilistic analysis, and strategic position sizing. To address these challenges, I developed the **Weekly Seasonality with Dynamic Kelly Criterion Indicator**. It is designed to refocus traders on essential aspects of trading, such as risk management and probabilistic returns, thereby catering to both short-term swing traders and long-term investors aiming for tax-efficient positions.
## The Motivation Behind the Indicator
### Overemphasis on Price: A Common Trading Pitfall
Many traders concentrate heavily on price charts and technical indicators, often neglecting the underlying principles of risk management and probabilistic analysis. This overemphasis on price can lead to:
- **Overtrading:** Making frequent trades based solely on price movements without considering the associated risks.
- **Poor Risk Management:** Failing to set appropriate stop-loss levels or position sizes, increasing the potential for significant losses.
- **Emotional Trading:** Letting emotions drive trading decisions rather than objective analysis, which can result in impulsive and irrational trades.
### The Need for Balanced Focus
To achieve sustained trading success, it is crucial to balance price analysis with robust risk management and probabilistic strategies. Key areas of focus include:
1. **Risk Management:** Implementing strategies to protect capital, such as setting stop-loss orders and determining appropriate position sizes based on risk tolerance.
2. **Probabilistic Analysis:** Assessing the likelihood of various market outcomes to make informed trading decisions.
3. **Swing Trading Percent Returns:** Capitalizing on short- to medium-term price movements by buying assets below their average return and selling them above.
## Introducing the Weekly Seasonality with Dynamic Kelly Criterion Indicator
The **Weekly Seasonality with Dynamic Kelly Criterion Indicator** is designed to integrate these essential elements into a comprehensive tool that aids traders in making informed, risk-aware decisions. Below, we explore the key components and functionalities of this indicator.
### Key Components of the Indicator
1. **Average Return (%)**
- **Definition:** The mean percentage return for each week across multiple years.
- **Purpose:** Serves as a benchmark to identify weeks with above or below-average performance, guiding buy and sell decisions.
2. **Positive Percentage (%)**
- **Definition:** The proportion of weeks that yielded positive returns.
- **Purpose:** Indicates the consistency of positive returns, helping traders gauge the reliability of certain weeks for trading.
3. **Volatility (%)**
- **Definition:** The standard deviation of weekly returns.
- **Purpose:** Measures the variability of returns, providing insights into the risk associated with trading during specific weeks.
4. **Kelly Ratio**
- **Definition:** A mathematical formula used to determine the optimal size of a series of bets to maximize the logarithmic growth of capital.
- **Purpose:** Balances potential returns against risks, guiding traders on the appropriate position size to take.
5. **Adjusted Kelly Fraction**
- **Definition:** The Kelly Ratio adjusted based on user-defined risk tolerance and external factors like Federal Reserve (Fed) stance.
- **Purpose:** Personalizes the Kelly Criterion to align with individual risk preferences and market conditions, enhancing risk management.
6. **Position Size ($)**
- **Definition:** The calculated amount to invest based on the Adjusted Kelly Fraction.
- **Purpose:** Ensures that position sizes are aligned with risk management strategies, preventing overexposure to any single trade.
7. **Max Drawdown (%)**
- **Definition:** The maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained.
- **Purpose:** Assesses the worst-case scenario for losses, crucial for understanding potential capital erosion.
### Functionality and Benefits
- **Weekly Data Aggregation:** Aggregates weekly returns across multiple years to provide a robust statistical foundation for decision-making.
- **Quarterly Filtering:** Allows users to filter weeks based on quarters, enabling seasonality analysis and tailored strategies aligned with specific timeframes.
- **Dynamic Risk Adjustment:** Incorporates the Dynamic Kelly Criterion to adjust position sizes in real-time based on changing risk profiles and market conditions.
- **User-Friendly Visualization:** Presents all essential metrics in an organized Summary Table, facilitating quick and informed decision-making.
## The Origin of the Kelly Criterion and Addressing Its Limitations
### Understanding the Kelly Criterion
The Kelly Criterion, developed by John L. Kelly Jr. in 1956, is a formula used to determine the optimal size of a series of bets to maximize the long-term growth of capital. The formula considers both the probability of winning and the payout ratio, balancing potential returns against the risk of loss.
**Kelly Formula:**
\
Where:
- \( b \) = the net odds received on the wager ("b to 1")
- \( p \) = probability of winning
- \( q \) = probability of losing ( \( q = 1 - p \) )
### The Risk of Ruin
While the Kelly Criterion is effective in optimizing growth, it carries inherent risks:
- **Overbetting:** If the input probabilities or payout ratios are misestimated, the Kelly Criterion can suggest overly aggressive position sizes, leading to significant losses.
- **Assumption of Constant Probabilities:** The criterion assumes that probabilities remain constant, which is rarely the case in dynamic markets.
- **Ignoring External Factors:** Traditional Kelly implementations do not account for external factors such as Federal Reserve rates, margin requirements, or market volatility, which can impact risk and returns.
### Addressing Traditional Limitations
Recognizing these limitations, the **Weekly Seasonality with Dynamic Kelly Criterion Indicator** introduces enhancements to the traditional Kelly approach:
- **Incorporation of Fed Stance:** Adjusts the Kelly Fraction based on the current stance of the Federal Reserve (neutral, dovish, or hawkish), reflecting broader economic conditions that influence market behavior.
- **Margin and Leverage Considerations:** Accounts for margin rates and leverage, ensuring that position sizes remain within manageable risk parameters.
- **Dynamic Adjustments:** Continuously updates position sizes based on real-time risk assessments and probabilistic analyses, mitigating the risk of ruin associated with static Kelly implementations.
## How the Indicator Aids Traders
### For Short-Term Swing Traders
Short-term swing traders thrive on capitalizing over weekly price movements. The indicator aids them by:
- **Identifying Favorable Weeks:** Highlights weeks with above-average returns and favorable volatility, guiding entry and exit points.
- **Optimal Position Sizing:** Utilizes the Adjusted Kelly Fraction to determine the optimal amount to invest, balancing potential returns with risk exposure.
- **Probabilistic Insights:** Provides metrics like Positive Percentage (%) and Kelly Ratio to assess the likelihood of favorable outcomes, enhancing decision-making.
### For Long-Term Tax-Free Investors
This is effectively a drop-in replacement for DCA which uses fixed position size that doesn't change based on market conditions, as a result, it's like catching multiple falling knifes by the blade and smiling with blood on your hand... I don't know about you, but I'd rather juggle by the hilt and look like an actual professional...
Long-term investors, especially those seeking tax-free positions (e.g., through retirement accounts), benefit from:
- **Consistent Risk Management:** Ensures that position sizes are aligned with long-term capital preservation strategies.
- **Seasonality Analysis:** Allows for strategic positioning based on historical performance trends across different weeks and quarters.
- **Dynamic Adjustments:** Adapts to changing market conditions, maintaining optimal risk profiles over extended investment horizons.
### Developers
Please double check the logic and functionality because I think there are a few issue and I need to crowd source solutions and be responsible about the code I publish. If you have corrections, please DM me or leave a respectful comment.
I want to publish this by the end of the year and include other things like highlighting triple witching weeks, adding columns for volume % stats, VaR and CVaR, alpha, beta (to see the seasonal alpha and beta based off a benchmark ticker and risk free rate ticker and other little goodies.
RSI with Swing Trade by Kelvin_VAlgorithm Description: "RSI with Swing Trade by Kelvin_V"
1. Introduction:
This algorithm uses the RSI (Relative Strength Index) and optional Moving Averages (MA) to detect potential uptrends and downtrends in the market. The key feature of this script is that it visually changes the candle colors based on the market conditions, making it easier for users to identify potential trend swings or wave patterns.
The strategy offers flexibility by allowing users to enable or disable the MA condition. When the MA condition is enabled, the strategy will confirm trends using two moving averages. When disabled, the strategy will only use RSI to detect potential market swings.
2. Key Features of the Algorithm:
RSI (Relative Strength Index):
The RSI is used to identify potential market turning points based on overbought and oversold conditions.
When the RSI exceeds a predefined upper threshold (e.g., 60), it suggests a potential uptrend.
When the RSI drops below a lower threshold (e.g., 40), it suggests a potential downtrend.
Moving Averages (MA) - Optional:
Two Moving Averages (Short MA and Long MA) are used to confirm trends.
If the Short MA crosses above the Long MA, it indicates an uptrend.
If the Short MA crosses below the Long MA, it indicates a downtrend.
Users have the option to enable or disable this MA condition.
Visual Candle Coloring:
Green candles represent a potential uptrend, indicating a bullish move based on RSI (and MA if enabled).
Red candles represent a potential downtrend, indicating a bearish move based on RSI (and MA if enabled).
3. How the Algorithm Works:
RSI Levels:
The user can set RSI upper and lower bands to represent potential overbought and oversold levels. For example:
RSI > 60: Indicates a potential uptrend (bullish move).
RSI < 40: Indicates a potential downtrend (bearish move).
Optional MA Condition:
The algorithm also allows the user to apply the MA condition to further confirm the trend:
Short MA > Long MA: Confirms an uptrend, reinforcing a bullish signal.
Short MA < Long MA: Confirms a downtrend, reinforcing a bearish signal.
This condition can be disabled, allowing the user to focus solely on RSI signals if desired.
Swing Trade Logic:
Uptrend: If the RSI exceeds the upper threshold (e.g., 60) and (optionally) the Short MA is above the Long MA, the candles will turn green to signal a potential uptrend.
Downtrend: If the RSI falls below the lower threshold (e.g., 40) and (optionally) the Short MA is below the Long MA, the candles will turn red to signal a potential downtrend.
Visual Representation:
The candle colors change dynamically based on the RSI values and moving average conditions, making it easier for traders to visually identify potential trend swings or wave patterns without relying on complex chart analysis.
4. User Customization:
The algorithm provides multiple customization options:
RSI Length: Users can adjust the period for RSI calculation (default is 4).
RSI Upper Band (Potential Uptrend): Users can customize the upper RSI level (default is 60) to indicate a potential bullish move.
RSI Lower Band (Potential Downtrend): Users can customize the lower RSI level (default is 40) to indicate a potential bearish move.
MA Type: Users can choose between SMA (Simple Moving Average) and EMA (Exponential Moving Average) for moving average calculations.
Enable/Disable MA Condition: Users can toggle the MA condition on or off, depending on whether they want to add moving averages to the trend confirmation process.
5. Benefits of the Algorithm:
Easy Identification of Trends: By changing candle colors based on RSI and MA conditions, the algorithm makes it easy for users to visually detect potential trend reversals and trend swings.
Flexible Conditions: The user has full control over the RSI and MA settings, allowing them to adapt the strategy to different market conditions and timeframes.
Clear Visualization: With the candle color changes, users can quickly recognize when a potential uptrend or downtrend is forming, enabling faster decision-making in their trading.
6. Example Usage:
Day traders: Can apply this strategy on short timeframes such as 5 minutes or 15 minutes to detect quick trends or reversals.
Swing traders: Can use this strategy on longer timeframes like 1 hour or 4 hours to identify and follow larger market swings.
Smooth Cloud [BigBeluga]This trend-following indicator, called Smooth Cloud, is built on top of a SuperSmoother Filter of John Ehlers with small modification.
It consists of three smoothed lines—Fast, Middle, and Slow—that together form a cloud. These lines are based on different periods, helping traders analyze market changes over different timeframes (fast, mid, and slow). The indicator offers a color-coded visual cloud to depict trend direction, along with a detailed dashboard that shows the positioning of the lines, whether they are rising or falling, and their price levels.
🔵 IDEA
The Smooth Cloud indicator is designed to help traders quickly assess the market trend by using three smoothed lines with varying periods. The lines represent fast, mid, and slow market changes, and their relative positioning provides a clear view of trend shifts. The dashboard gives a more granular view by showing if the lines are rising or falling individually, without comparing them to each other, providing insights into potential trend changes before they are fully formed. The color-coded cloud further enhances the visual experience by allowing traders to see trend direction at a glance, making it easier to spot major and minor shifts in the market.
🔵 KEY FEATURES & USAGE
◉ Three Smoothed Lines (Fast, Mid, Slow):
The indicator consists of three smoothed lines, each representing a different periods. The Fast line reacts more quickly to price changes, while the Slow line reacts more slowly, allowing traders to capture both short-term and long-term trend information. The lines are based on different lengths, and their positioning relative to each other helps determine market direction.
◉ Color-Coded Cloud:
The cloud formed between the lines is color-coded to indicate trend direction. When the Fast line is above the Slow line, it signals an upward trend, and the cloud is green. When the Fast line is below the Slow line, the cloud turns red, indicating a downward trend. This color coding makes it easy to spot the overall trend direction visually without having to analyze the lines in detail.
◉ Dashboard for Line Positioning and Trend Direction:
A dashboard in the top right corner of the chart shows the positioning of the Fast, Middle, and Slow lines relative to each other. It displays arrows for each line to indicate whether the line is above or below the other lines. For exae determines its trend direction based on its position to mid line — if it's above, an upward arrow is displayed, and if it's below mid line, a downward arrow is shown.mple, if the Fast line is above the Slow line, the dashboard shows an upward arrow for the Fast line. The Slow lin
Up trend:
Up trend shift:
Down trend shift:
Down Trend:
◉ Rising and Falling Detection:
The dashboard also tracks whether the lines are rising or falling based solely on their own values. If a line rises or falls consistently over three bars, the dashboard shows an upward or downward arrow under the "Rising or Falling" section. This feature provides additional insight into the market's momentum, allowing traders to spot potential trend reversals more quickly.
◉ Price Levels for Fast, Middle, and Slow Lines:
The dashboard includes the price levels for the Fast, Middle, and Slow lines, displayed at the bottom. These levels give traders a quick reference for where the lines are currently positioned relative to the price, adding further context to the trend information displayed.
◉ Fast Signals:
The fast signals are diplayed when fast line crosses slow line. Gree arrows up shows fast line crossed over slow and when arrow down fast line crossed under slow one.
🔵 CUSTOMIZATION
Length Input: You can adjust the length parameter, which affects the smoothing period for the lines. A shorter length makes the lines react more quickly to price changes, while a longer length provides a smoother, more gradual response.
Source Input: The indicator uses the hl2 source (the average of the high and low prices), but you can change this to another source to better suit your trading strategy.
Signals Type: Select between "Fast" and "Slow". Fast signals - is interaction of fast and slow lines. Slow signals is interaction of mid and slow lines
Related script:
True Day Open1. *nyTime*: Converts the current time to the New York timezone.
2. *nyHour and nyMinute*: Extracts the hour and minute of the current candle in the New York timezone.
3. *isNyMidnightCandle*: A boolean variable that checks if the current candle is the 12:00 AM candle in New York.
4. *bgcolor*: Colors the background of the 12:00 AM candle blue.
5. *plotshape*: Optionally, you can mark the 12:00 AM candle with a blue label above the bar for better visibility.
You can copy and paste this code into the Pine Editor on TradingView and apply it to your chart. Make sure your chart is set to the 5-minute timeframe.
Maximum Bar Range in TicksThis is a simple indicator that gives the maximum range of any bar on the chart in ticks. I found it useful when sizing arrays and it might also be valuable when working out risk parameters.
Engulfing Candle Indicator with SweepTHIS IS ENGULFED SWEEP CANDLE
This TradingView indicator identifies and highlights bullish and bearish engulfing candlestick patterns with an additional condition: the recent candle must "sweep" the high or low of the previous candle. This refined approach helps to confirm the strength of the engulfing pattern by ensuring that the current candle extends beyond the previous candle's range.
Features:
- **Bullish Engulfing Detection**: Identifies a bullish engulfing pattern where the current candle fully engulfs the previous candle's body, and the low of the current candle is below the low of the previous candle.
- **Bearish Engulfing Detection**: Identifies a bearish engulfing pattern where the current candle fully engulfs the previous candle's body, and the high of the current candle is above the high of the previous candle.
- **Visual Indicators**: Marks bullish engulfing patterns with a green label below the bar and bearish engulfing patterns with a red label above the bar.
- **Alert Conditions**: Provides customizable alerts for detected patterns, enabling you to be notified when a bullish or bearish engulfing pattern with a sweep is detected.
#### Usage:
1. **Apply to Chart**: Add the indicator to your chart to start detecting engulfing patterns with sweep conditions.
2. **Set Alerts**: Configure alerts to receive notifications when the indicator identifies a bullish or bearish engulfing pattern with a sweep.
#### Ideal For:
- Traders looking for additional confirmation in engulfing patterns.
- Users who want to incorporate price action signals into their trading strategy.
By incorporating the sweep condition, this indicator aims to enhance the reliability of the engulfing patterns and provide more actionable signals.
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Feel free to adjust the description based on any specific details or features you want to highlight. If there are any additional features or details about the indicator that should be included, let me know!
Daily Range + Asia Liquidity + FVG + silver Bullet sessionIndicator Description :
This indicator combines several trading concepts to provide an overall view of intraday selling opportunities. It includes the following elements:
Daily Range:
Measures the daily price range between the highest and lowest points of the day.
Helps understand daily volatility and identify potential support and resistance levels.
Asia Liquidity:
Analyzes price movements and volumes during the Asian session (usually from 00:00 to 08:00 GMT).
Identifies liquidity levels where the price has reacted during this period, providing clues on where significant orders are concentrated.
FVG (Fair Value Gap):
A trading concept that identifies areas where the price has moved quickly, creating a "gap" or empty space on the chart.
These areas are often revisited by the price, which can provide potential entry or exit points.
Silver Bullet Session:
Refers to a specific period of the day where a particular strategy or setup is expected to occur. For example, this could be a period where price movements are historically more predictable or volatile.
This session particularly targets price movements that attract sellers.
Using the Indicator
Identifying Selling Levels:
Combine the daily range levels with the liquidity zones identified during the Asian session to spot levels where sellers might be interested.
Use the fair value gaps (FVG) to identify areas where the price might return, providing entry or exit points for selling positions.
Silver Bullet Session:
Focus on this period to observe price movements and reactions to the levels identified earlier.
Look for selling signals (e.g., bearish reversal candlesticks or continuation patterns) during this session to maximize selling opportunities.
Objective :
The objective of this indicator is to provide a systematic approach to identifying selling opportunities based on multiple technical and temporal elements. By combining daily volatility, liquidity levels, value gaps, and specific trading periods, this indicator helps traders pinpoint potential selling points with greater accuracy.
Bearish vs Bullish ArgumentsThe Bearish vs Bullish Arguments Indicator is a tool designed to help traders visually assess and compare the number of bullish and bearish arguments based on their custom inputs. This script enables users to input up to five bullish and five bearish arguments, dynamically displaying the bias on a clean and customizable table on the chart. This provides traders with a clear, visual representation of the market sentiment they have identified.
Key Features:
Customizable Inputs: Users can input up to five bullish and five bearish arguments, which are displayed in a table on the chart.
Bias Calculation: The script calculates the bias (Bullish, Bearish, or Neutral) based on the number of bullish and bearish arguments provided.
Color Customization: Users can customize the colors for the table background, text, and headers, ensuring the table fits seamlessly into their charting environment.
Reset Functionality: A reset switch allows users to clear all input arguments with a single click, making it easy to start fresh.
How It Works:
Input Fields: The script provides input fields for up to five bullish and five bearish arguments. Each input is a simple text field where users can describe their arguments.
Bias Calculation: The script counts the number of non-empty bullish and bearish arguments and determines the overall bias. The bias is displayed in the table with a dynamically changing color to indicate whether the market sentiment is bullish, bearish, or neutral.
Customizable Table: The table is positioned on the chart according to the user's preference (top-left, top-right, bottom-left, bottom-right) and can be customized in terms of background color and text color.
How to Use:
Add the Indicator: Add the Bearish vs Bullish Arguments Indicator to your chart.
Input Arguments: Enter up to five bullish and five bearish arguments in the provided input fields in the script settings.
Customize Appearance: Adjust the table's background color, text color, and position on the chart to fit your preferences.
Example Use Case:
A trader might use this indicator to visually balance their arguments for and against a particular trade setup. By entering their reasons for a bullish outlook in the bullish argument fields and their reasons for a bearish outlook in the bearish argument fields, they can quickly see which side has more supporting points and make a more informed trading decision.
This script was inspired by Arjoio's concepts
Tic Tac Toe Game [TradeDots]Feeling bored with trading?
Time to inject some fun into your decision-making process with our Tic Tac Toe Indicator!
The Tic Tac Toe game transforms your chart into a competitive playground where trading pairs face off in a classic game of Tic Tac Toe.
HOW TO PLAY
Our Tic Tac Toe game invites you to pit one trading pair against another directly on your chart. Choose the competitors and watch as they battle it out in a traditional grid setup.
Navigate to settings and select your competitor pair.
Choose who kicks off the game.
After the close of each new bar, the algorithm will utilize the closing prices of both symbols. These numbers feed into a random number generator which alternates the turns for placing marks on the grid.
The game progresses until one pair aligns three consecutive symbols and wins, or the board fills up. After that, the game resets every three bars, offering continual engagement during active market hours.
MANUAL PLAYING MODE
Currently, due to PineScript's limitations, a fully interactive manual mode is not supported, as all previous data will be lost with each new user input, preventing the replication of existing game states.
However, users can input a sequence at the start, guiding the placement of symbols throughout the game.
Stay tuned for future updates!
Swing Harmony IndicatorThis indicator is called "Swing Harmony Indicator" and it calculates the average of the highest high and lowest low prices over a certain period, along with a simple moving average of the closing prices. It then plots these values on the chart, with the color of the average line dynamically changing based on whether the second average is less than or greater than the first average.
Hurst Future Lines of Demarcation StrategyJ. M. Hurst introduced a concept in technical analysis known as the Future Line of Demarcation (FLD), which serves as a forward-looking tool by incorporating a simple yet profound line into future projections on a financial chart. Specifically, the FLD is constructed by offsetting the price half a cycle ahead into the future on the time axis, relative to the Hurst Cycle of interest. For instance, in the context of a 40 Day Cycle, the FLD would be represented by shifting the current price data 20 days forward on the chart, offering an idea of future price movement anticipations.
The utility of FLDs extends into three critical areas of insight, which form the backbone of the FLD Trading Strategy:
A price crossing the FLD signifies the confirmation of either a peak or trough formation, indicating pivotal moments in price action.
Such crossings also help determine precise price targets for the upcoming peak or trough, aligned with the cycle of examination.
Additionally, the occurrence of a peak in the FLD itself signals a probable zone where the price might experience a trough, helping to anticipate of future price movements.
These insights by Hurst in his "Cycles Trading Course" during the 1970s, are instrumental for traders aiming to determine entry and exit points, and to forecast potential price movements within the market.
To use the FLD Trading Strategy, for example when focusing on the 40 Day Cycle, a trader should primarily concentrate on the interplay between three Hurst Cycles:
The 20 Day FLD (Signal) - Half the length of the Trade Cycle
The 40 Day FLD (Trade) - The Cycle you want to trade
The 80 Day FLD (Trend) - Twice the length of the Trade Cycle
Traders can gauge trend or consolidation by watching for two critical patterns:
Cascading patterns, characterized by several FLDs running parallel with a consistent separation, typically emerge during pronounced market trends, indicating strong directional momentum.
Consolidation patterns, on the other hand, occur when multiple FLDs intersect and navigate within the same price bandwidth, often reversing direction to traverse this range multiple times. This tangled scenario results in the formation of Pause Zones, areas where price momentum is likely to temporarily stall or where the emergence of a significant trend might be delayed.
This simple FLD indicator provides 3 FLDs with optional source input and smoothing, A-through-H FLD interaction background, adjustable “Close the Trade” triggers, and a simple strategy for backtesting it all.
The A-through-H FLD interactions are a framework designed to classify the different types of price movements as they intersect with or diverge from the Future Line of Demarcation (FLD). Each interaction (designated A through H by color) represents a specific phase or characteristic within the cycle, and understanding these can help traders anticipate future price movements and make informed decisions.
The adjustable “Close the Trade” triggers are for setting the crossover/under that determines the trade exits. The options include: Price, Signal FLD, Trade FLD, or Trend FLD. For example, a trader may want to exit trades only when price finally crosses the Trade FLD line.
Shoutouts & Credits for all the raw code, helpful information, ideas & collaboration, conversations together, introductions, indicator feedback, and genuine/selfless help:
🏆 @TerryPascoe
🏅 @Hpotter
👏 @parisboy
BTC Purchasing Power 2009-20XX! Hello, today I'm going to show you something that shifts our perspective on Bitcoin's value, not just in nominal terms, but adjusted for the real buying power over the years. This Pine Script TAS developed for TradingView does exactly that by taking into account inflation rates from 2009 to the present.
As you know, inflation erodes the purchasing power of money. That $100 in 2009 does not buy you the same amount in goods or services today. The same concept applies to Bitcoin. While we often look at its price in terms of dollars, pounds, or euros, it's crucial to understand what that price really means in terms of purchasing power.
What this script does is adjust the price of Bitcoin for cumulative inflation since 2009, allowing us to see not just how the nominal price has changed, but how its value as a means of purchasing goods and services has evolved.
For example, if we see Bitcoin's price at $60,000 today, that number might seem high compared to its early years. However, when we adjust this price for inflation, we might find that in terms of 2009's purchasing power, the effective price might be somewhat lower. This adjusted price gives us a more accurate reflection of Bitcoin's true value over time.
This script plots two lines on the chart:
The Original BTC Price: This is the unadjusted price of Bitcoin as we typically see it.
BTC Purchasing Power: This line shows Bitcoin's price adjusted for inflation, reflecting how many goods or services Bitcoin could buy at that point in time compared to 2009.
By comparing these lines, we can observe periods where Bitcoin's purchasing power significantly increased, even if the nominal price was not at its peak. This can help us identify moments when Bitcoin was undervalued or overvalued in real terms.
This analysis is crucial for long-term investors and traders who want to understand Bitcoin's value beyond the surface-level price movements. It helps us appreciate Bitcoin's potential as a store of value, especially in contexts where traditional currencies are losing purchasing power due to inflation.
Remember, investing is not just about riding price waves; it's about understanding the underlying value. And that's precisely what this script helps us to uncover
