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Power Metcalfe's + Fibonacci Channel## Metcalfe's Law + Fibonacci Channel - Optimized Bitcoin Valuation Model This indicator presents an enhanced variation of the classic Bitcoin Metcalfe's Law model, combining logarithmic regression analysis with Fibonacci retracement levels to create a comprehensive valuation framework. **Key Features:** - **Optimized Metcalfe's Law calculation** using historical cycle data (2013-2022) for improved accuracy - **Fibonacci channel overlay** with key levels: 0.382, 0.618, 1.272, 1.618, 2.000, 2.618, 3.000 - **Dynamic trading zones** with visual buy/sell signals based on price position relative to the channel - **Real-time targets** displaying current Fibonacci projections and fair value estimates **What makes it different:** Unlike standard Metcalfe's Law implementations, this version integrates logarithmic growth principles and uses a refined dataset that accounts for Bitcoin's maturation cycles. The Fibonacci overlay provides clearer entry/exit points while maintaining the long-term growth trajectory based on network adoption. **Best suited for:** Long-term Bitcoin holders and macro traders looking for mathematical support/resistance levels based on network adoption dynamics and scarcity. The model automatically updates calculations and provides a comprehensive information table showing current formula parameters and key price targets.
Pine Script® indicator
by didaz
MSTY-WNTR Rebalancing SignalMSTY-WNTR Rebalancing Signal ## Overview The **MSTY-WNTR Rebalancing Signal** is a custom TradingView indicator designed to help investors dynamically allocate between two YieldMax ETFs: **MSTY** (YieldMax MSTR Option Income Strategy ETF) and **WNTR** (YieldMax Short MSTR Option Income Strategy ETF). These ETFs are tied to MicroStrategy (MSTR) stock, which is heavily influenced by Bitcoin's price due to MSTR's significant Bitcoin holdings. MSTY benefits from upward movements in MSTR (and thus Bitcoin) through a covered call strategy that generates income but caps upside potential. WNTR, on the other hand, provides inverse exposure, profiting from MSTR declines but losing in rallies. This indicator uses Bitcoin's momentum and MSTR's relative strength to signal when to hold MSTY (bullish phases), WNTR (bearish phases), or stay neutral, aiming to optimize returns by switching allocations at key turning points. Inspired by strategies discussed in crypto communities (e.g., X posts analyzing MSTR-linked ETFs), this indicator promotes an active rebalancing approach over a "set and forget" buy-and-hold strategy. In simulated backtests over the past 12 months (as of August 4, 2025), the optimized version has shown potential to outperform holding 100% MSTY or 100% WNTR alone, with an illustrative APY of ~125% vs. ~6% for MSTY and ~-15% for WNTR in one scenario. **Important Disclaimer**: This is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always consult a financial advisor. Trading involves risk, and you could lose money. The indicator is for educational and informational purposes only. ## Key Features - **Momentum-Based Signals**: Uses a Simple Moving Average (SMA) on Bitcoin's price to detect bullish (price > SMA) or bearish (price < SMA) trends. - **RSI Confirmation**: Incorporates MSTR's Relative Strength Index (RSI) to filter signals, avoiding overbought conditions for MSTY and oversold for WNTR. - **Visual Cues**: - Green upward triangle for "Hold MSTY". - Red downward triangle for "Hold WNTR". - Yellow cross for "Switch" signals. - Background color: Green for MSTY, red for WNTR. - **Information Panel**: A table in the top-right corner displays real-time data: BTC Price, SMA value, MSTR RSI, and current Allocation (MSTY, WNTR, or Neutral). - **Alerts**: Configurable alerts for holding MSTY, holding WNTR, or switching. - **Optimized Parameters**: Defaults are tuned (SMA: 10 days, RSI: 15 periods, Overbought: 80, Oversold: 20) based on simulations to reduce whipsaws and capture trends effectively. ## How It Works The indicator's logic is straightforward yet effective for volatile assets like Bitcoin and MSTR: 1. **Primary Trigger (Bitcoin Momentum)**: - Calculate the SMA of Bitcoin's closing price (default: 10-day). - Bullish: Current BTC price > SMA → Potential MSTY hold. - Bearish: Current BTC price < SMA → Potential WNTR hold. 2. **Secondary Filter (MSTR RSI Confirmation)**: - Compute RSI on MSTR stock (default: 15-period). - For bullish signals: If RSI > Overbought (80), signal Neutral (avoid overextended rallies). - For bearish signals: If RSI < Oversold (20), signal Neutral (avoid capitulation bottoms). 3. **Allocation Rules**: - Hold 100% MSTY if bullish and not overbought. - Hold 100% WNTR if bearish and not oversold. - Neutral otherwise (e.g., during choppy or extreme markets) – consider holding cash or avoiding trades. 4. **Rebalancing**: - Switch signals trigger when the hold changes (e.g., from MSTY to WNTR). - Recommended frequency: Weekly reviews or on 5% BTC moves to minimize trading costs (aim for 4-6 trades/year). This approach leverages Bitcoin's influence on MSTR while mitigating the risks of MSTY's covered call drag during downtrends and WNTR's losses in uptrends. ## Setup and Usage 1. **Chart Requirements**: - Apply this indicator to a Bitcoin chart (e.g., BTCUSD on Binance or Coinbase, daily timeframe recommended). - Ensure MSTR stock data is accessible (TradingView supports it natively). 2. **Adding to TradingView**: - Open the Pine Editor. - Paste the script code. - Save and add to your chart. - Customize inputs if needed (e.g., adjust SMA/RSI lengths for different timeframes). 3. **Interpretation**: - **Green Background/Triangle**: Allocate 100% to MSTY – Bitcoin is in an uptrend, MSTR not overbought. - **Red Background/Triangle**: Allocate 100% to WNTR – Bitcoin in downtrend, MSTR not oversold. - **Yellow Switch Cross**: Rebalance your portfolio immediately. - **Neutral (No Signal)**: Panel shows "Neutral" – Hold cash or previous position; reassess weekly. - Monitor the panel for key metrics to validate signals manually. 4. **Backtesting and Strategy Integration**: - Convert to a strategy script by changing `indicator()` to `strategy()` and adding entry/exit logic for automated testing. - In simulations (e.g., using Python or TradingView's backtester), it has outperformed buy-and-hold in volatile markets by ~100-200% relative APY, but results vary. - Factor in fees: ETF expense ratios (~0.99%), trading commissions (~$0.40/trade), and slippage. 5. **Risk Management**: - Use with a diversified portfolio; never allocate more than you can afford to lose. - Add stop-losses (e.g., 10% trailing) to protect against extreme moves. - Rebalance sparingly to avoid over-trading in sideways markets. - Dividends: Reinvest MSTY/WNTR payouts into the current hold for compounding. ## Performance Insights (Simulated as of August 4, 2025) Based on synthetic backtests modeling the last 12 months: - **Optimized Strategy APY**: ~125% (by timing switches effectively). - **Hold 100% MSTY APY**: ~6% (gains from BTC rallies offset by downtrends). - **Hold 100% WNTR APY**: ~-15% (losses in bull phases outweigh bear gains). In one scenario with stronger volatility, the strategy achieved ~4533% APY vs. 10% for MSTY and -34% for WNTR, highlighting its potential in dynamic markets. However, these are illustrative; real results depend on actual BTC/MSTR movements. Test thoroughly on historical data. ## Limitations and Considerations - **Data Dependency**: Relies on accurate BTC and MSTR data; delays or gaps can affect signals. - **Market Risks**: Bitcoin's volatility can lead to false signals (whipsaws); the RSI filter helps but isn't perfect. - **No Guarantees**: This indicator doesn't predict the future. MSTR's correlation to BTC may change (e.g., due to regulatory events). - **Not for All Users**: Best for intermediate/advanced traders familiar with ETFs and crypto. Beginners should paper trade first. - **Updates**: As of August 4, 2025, this is version 1.0. Future updates may include volume filters or EMA options. If you find this indicator useful, consider leaving a like or comment on TradingView. Feedback welcome for improvements!
Pine Script® indicator
by Smartmate
Volume Based Analysis V 1.00 Volume Based Analysis V1.00 – Multi-Scenario Buyer/Seller Power & Volume Pressure Indicator Description: 1. Overview The Volume Based Analysis V1.00 indicator is a comprehensive tool for analyzing market dynamics using Buyer Power, Seller Power, and Volume Pressure scenarios. It detects 12 configurable scenarios combining volume-based calculations with price action to highlight potential bullish or bearish conditions. When used in conjunction with other technical tools such as Ichimoku, Bollinger Bands, and trendline analysis, traders can gain a deeper and more reliable understanding of the market context surrounding each signal. 2. Key Features 12 Configurable Scenarios covering Buyer/Seller Power convergence, divergence, and dominance Advanced Volume Pressure Analysis detecting when both buy/sell volumes exceed averages Global Lookback System ensuring consistency across all calculations Dominance Peak Module for identifying strongest buyer/seller dominance at structural pivots Real-time Signal Statistics Table showing bullish/bearish counts and volume metrics Fully customizable inputs (SMA lengths, multipliers, timeframes) Visual chart markers (S01 to S12) for clear on-chart identification 3. Usage Guide Enable/Disable Scenarios: Choose which signals to display based on your trading strategy Fine-tune Parameters: Adjust SMA lengths, multipliers, and lookback periods to fit your market and timeframe Timeframe Control: Use custom lower timeframes for refined up/down volume calculations Combine with Other Indicators: Ichimoku: Confirm volume-based bullish signals with cloud breakouts or trend confirmation Bollinger Bands: Validate divergence/convergence signals with overbought/oversold zones Trendlines: Spot high-probability signals at breakout or retest points Signal Tables & Peaks: Read buy/sell volume dominance at a glance, and activate the Dominance Peak Module to highlight key turning points. 4. Example Scenarios & Suggested Images Image #1 – S01 Bullish Convergence Above Zero S01 activated, Buyer Power > 0, both buyer power slope & price slope positive, above-average buy volume. Show S01 ↑ marker below bar. Image #2 – Combined with Ichimoku Display a bullish scenario where price breaks above Ichimoku cloud while S01 or S09 bullish signal is active. Highlight both the volume-based marker and Ichimoku cloud breakout. Image #3 – Combined with Bollinger Bands & Trendlines Show a bearish S10 signal at the upper Bollinger Band near a descending trendline resistance. Highlight the confluence of the volume pressure signal with the band touch and trendline rejection. Image #4 – Dominance Peak Module Pivot low with green ▲ Bull Peak and pivot high with red ▼ Bear Peak, showing strong dominance counts. Image #5 – Statistics Table in Action Bottom-left table showing buy/sell volume, averages, and bullish/bearish counts during an active market phase. 5. Feedback & Collaboration Your feedback and suggestions are welcome — they help improve and refine this system. If you discover interesting use cases or have ideas for new features, please share them in the script’s comments section on TradingView. 6. Disclaimer This script is for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own analysis before making trading decisions. Tip: Use this tool alongside trend confirmation indicators for the most robust signal interpretation.
Pine Script® indicator
by ata_sabanci
5
Advanced Forex Currency Strength Meter # Advanced Forex Currency Strength Meter 🚀 The Ultimate Currency Strength Analysis Tool for Forex Traders This sophisticated indicator measures and compares the relative strength of major currencies (EUR, GBP, USD, JPY, CHF, CAD, AUD, NZD) to help you identify the strongest and weakest currencies in real-time, providing clear trading signals based on currency strength differentials. ## 📊 What This Indicator Does The Advanced Forex Currency Strength Meter analyzes currency relationships across 28+ major forex pairs and 8 currency indices to determine which currencies are gaining or losing strength. Instead of relying on individual pair analysis, this tool gives you a bird's-eye view of the entire forex market, helping you: Identify the strongest and weakest currencies at any given time Find high-probability trading opportunities by pairing strong vs weak currencies Avoid ranging markets by detecting when currencies have similar strength Get clear LONG/SHORT/NEUTRAL signals for your current trading pair Optimize your trading strategy based on your preferred timeframe and holding period ## ⚙️ How The Indicator Works ### Dual Calculation Method The indicator uses a sophisticated dual approach for maximum accuracy: Pairs-Based Analysis: Calculates currency strength from 28+ major forex pairs (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, etc.) Index-Based Analysis: Incorporates official currency indices (DXY, EXY, BXY, JXY, CXY, AXY, SXY, ZXY) Weighted Combination: Blends both methods using smart weighting for enhanced accuracy ### Smart Auto-Optimization System The indicator automatically adjusts its parameters based on your chart timeframe and intended holding period: The system recognizes that scalping requires different sensitivity than swing trading, automatically optimizing lookback periods, analysis timeframes, signal thresholds, and index weights. ### Strength Calculation Process Fetches price data from multiple timeframes using optimized tuple requests Calculates percentage change over the specified lookback period Optionally normalizes by ATR (Average True Range) to account for volatility differences Combines pair-based and index-based calculations using dynamic weighting Generates relative strength by comparing base currency vs quote currency Produces clear trading signals when strength differential exceeds threshold ## 🎯 How To Use The Indicator ### Quick Start Add the indicator to any forex pair chart Enable 🧠 Smart Auto-Optimization (recommended for beginners) Watch for LONG 🚀 signals when the relative strength line is green and above threshold Watch for SHORT 🐻 signals when the relative strength line is red and below threshold Avoid trading during NEUTRAL ⚪ periods when currencies have similar strength Note: This is highly recommended to couple this indicator with fundamental analysis and use it as an extra signal. ### 📋 Parameters Reference #### 🤖 Smart Settings 🧠 Smart Auto-Optimization: (Default: Enabled) Automatically optimizes all parameters based on chart timeframe and trading style #### ⚙️ Manual Override These settings are only active when Smart Auto-Optimization is disabled: Manual Lookback Period: (Default: 14) Number of periods to analyze for strength calculation Manual ATR Period: (Default: 14) Period for ATR normalization calculation Manual Analysis Timeframe: (Default: 240) Higher timeframe for strength analysis Manual Index Weight: (Default: 0.5) Weight given to currency indices vs pairs (0.0 = pairs only, 1.0 = indices only) Manual Signal Threshold: (Default: 0.5) Minimum strength differential required for trading signals #### 📊 Display Show Signal Markers: (Default: Enabled) Display triangle markers when signals change Show Info Label: (Default: Enabled) Show comprehensive information label with current analysis #### 🔍 Analysis Use ATR Normalization: (Default: Enabled) Normalize strength calculations by volatility for fairer comparison #### 💰 Currency Indices 💰 Use Currency Indices: (Default: Enabled) Include all 8 currency indices in strength calculation for enhanced accuracy #### 🎨 Colors Strong Currency Color: (Default: Green) Color for positive/strong signals Weak Currency Color: (Default: Red) Color for negative/weak signals Neutral Color: (Default: Gray) Color for neutral conditions Strong/Weak Backgrounds: Background colors for clear signal visualization ### 🧠 Smart Optimization Profiles The indicator automatically selects optimal parameters based on your chart timeframe: #### ⚡ Scalping Profile (1M-5M Charts) For positions held for a few minutes: Lookback: 5 periods (fast/sensitive) Analysis Timeframe: 15 minutes Index Weight: 20% (favor pairs for speed) Signal Threshold: 0.3% (sensitive triggers) #### 📈 Intraday Profile (10M-1H Charts) For positions held for a few hours: Lookback: 12 periods (balanced sensitivity) Analysis Timeframe: 4 hours Index Weight: 40% (balanced approach) Signal Threshold: 0.4% (moderate sensitivity) #### 📊 Swing Profile (4H-Daily Charts) For positions held for a few days: Lookback: 21 periods (stable analysis) Analysis Timeframe: Daily Index Weight: 60% (favor indices for stability) Signal Threshold: 0.5% (conservative triggers) #### 📆 Position Profile (Weekly+ Charts) For positions held for a few weeks: Lookback: 30 periods (long-term view) Analysis Timeframe: Weekly Index Weight: 70% (heavily favor indices) Signal Threshold: 0.6% (very conservative) ### Entry Timing Wait for clear LONG 🚀 or SHORT 🐻 signals Avoid trading during NEUTRAL ⚪ periods Look for signal confirmations on multiple timeframes ### Risk Management Stronger signals (higher relative strength values) suggest higher probability trades Use appropriate position sizing based on signal strength Consider the trading style profile when setting stop losses and take profits 💡 Pro Tip: The indicator works best when combined with your existing technical analysis. Use currency strength to identify which pairs to trade, then use your favorite technical indicators to determine when to enter and exit. ## 🔧 Key Features 28+ Forex Pairs Analysis: Comprehensive coverage of major currency relationships 8 Currency Indices Integration: DXY, EXY, BXY, JXY, CXY, AXY, SXY, ZXY for enhanced accuracy Smart Auto-Optimization: Automatically adapts to your trading style and timeframe ATR Normalization: Fair comparison across different currency pairs and volatility levels Real-Time Signals: Clear LONG/SHORT/NEUTRAL signals with visual markers Performance Optimized: Efficient tuple-based data requests minimize external calls User-Friendly Interface: Simplified settings with comprehensive tooltips Multi-Timeframe Support: Works on any timeframe from 1-minute to monthly charts Transform your forex trading with the power of currency strength analysis! 🚀
Pine Script® indicator
by igaudette
2
AymaN Entry Signal – With HTF + Pin Bar + Multi TP + BE + V1Ayman Entry Signal – Indicator Description Overview Ayman Entry Signal – With HTF + Pin Bar + Multi TP + BE + Stats Panel (V1) This is a professional-grade Pine Script indicator designed for scalping and intraday trading, with full trade management, multi-confirmation logic, and advanced visualization. The tool is ideal for traders focused on XAUUSD (Gold), Forex, and other volatile instruments who seek both precision entries and structured exits with dynamic risk control. Main Features Advanced Entry Logic: - EMA fast/slow crossovers (configurable) - Optional conditions: Break of Structure (BoS), Order Block (OB), Fair Value Gap (FVG), Liquidity sweeps, Pin Bars - HTF confirmation using EMA or BoS - Real-time entry condition display Trade Management: - Dynamic calculation of Entry, SL (with ATR buffer), TP1, TP2 - Supports Partial Close and Break Even logic after TP1 - Visual PnL label (dynamic and color-coded) Statistics Panel: - Shows total trades, win/loss/breakeven count, cumulative PnL - Filter by custom date or session - Fully customizable panel appearance Trade Visualization: - Trade box includes all trade levels (Entry, SL, TP1, TP2) - Visual display of trade conditions and PnL result - Option to keep previous trades on chart Alert System: - Alerts for Buy and Sell entries - Compatible with webhook automation systems like MT5/MT4 Customization & Inputs - Capital & risk per trade - Value per pip/point - SL buffer (ATR-based) - Manual EMA override - Enable/disable: EMA, BoS, OB, FVG, Liquidity, Pin Bars - HTF: timeframe + confirmation logic - Trade box/labels visibility - Full color customization - PnL label position: top, center, or bottom Recommended Use - Ideal for Gold scalping (XAUUSD), also effective for Forex - Best on 1m–15m charts; use HTF confirmation from 15m–4H - Pairs well with semi-automated systems using alerts and webhooks Disclaimer Note: This is a non-executing indicator. It does not place trades but provides visual and statistical guidance for professional manual or semi-automated trading.
Pine Script® indicator
by Wealth-Road
ATR % Line from LoD/HoDATR % Line Trading Indicator - Entry Filter Tool This Pine Script creates a sophisticated ATR (Average True Range) percentage-based entry filter indicator for TradingView that helps traders avoid buying overextended stocks and identify optimal entry zones based on volatility. Core Functionality - Entry Discipline The script calculates a maximum entry threshold by taking a percentage of the Average True Range (ATR) and projecting it from the current day's low. This creates a dynamic "no-buy zone" that adapts to market volatility, helping traders avoid purchasing stocks that have already moved too far from their daily base. Key Calculation: Measures the ATR over a specified period (default: 14 bars) Takes a user-defined percentage of that ATR (default: 25%) Projects this distance from the day's low to establish a maximum entry threshold Entry Rule: Avoid buying when price exceeds this ATR% level from the daily low or high. Visual Features Entry Threshold Line: Draws a horizontal line at the calculated maximum entry level Line extends forward for clear visualization of the "no-buy zone" Red zones above this line indicate overextended conditions Fully customizable appearance with color, width, and style options Smart Entry Alerts: Optional labels show the ATR percentage threshold and exact price level Visual confirmation when stocks are trading in acceptable entry zones vs. extended areas Real-Time Monitoring Table: Displays current distance from daily low as ATR percentage Shows whether current price is in "safe entry zone" or "extended territory" Customizable display options for clean chart analysis Practical Applications for Entry Management Avoiding Extended Entries: Primary Use: Don't initiate long positions when price is more than X% ATR from the daily low Prevents buying stocks that have already made their daily move Reduces risk of buying at temporary tops within the trading session Entry Zone Identification: Price trading below the ATR% line = potential entry opportunity Price trading above the ATR% line = wait for pullback or skip the trade Combines volatility analysis with momentum discipline Risk Management Benefits: Improved Entry Timing: Enter closer to daily support levels Better Risk/Reward: Shorter distance to stop loss (daily low) Reduced Chasing: Systematic approach prevents FOMO-driven entries Volatility Awareness: Higher volatility stocks get wider acceptable entry ranges Configuration for Entry Filtering Key Settings for Entry Management: ATR Percentage: Set your maximum acceptable extension (15-30% common for day trading) Reference Point: Use "Low" to measure extension from daily base Line Style: Make highly visible to clearly see entry threshold Alert Integration: Visual confirmation of entry-friendly zones Typical Usage Scenarios: Conservative Entries: 15-20% ATR from daily low Moderate Extensions: 25-35% ATR for stronger momentum plays Aggressive Setups: 40%+ ATR for breakout situations (use with caution) Entry Strategy Integration Pre-Market Planning: Set ATR% threshold based on stock's typical volatility Identify key levels where entries become unfavorable Plan alternative entry strategies for extended stocks Intraday Execution: Monitor real-time ATR% extension from daily low Avoid new long positions when threshold is exceeded Wait for pullbacks to re-enter acceptable entry zones This tool transforms volatility analysis into practical entry discipline, helping traders maintain consistent entry standards and avoid the costly mistake of chasing overextended stocks. By respecting ATR-based extension limits, traders can improve their entry timing and overall trade profitability.
Pine Script® indicator
by BigWaveChartist
Market Energy – Trend vs Retest (with Saturation %)Market Energy – Trend vs Retest Indicator This indicator measures the bullish and bearish energy in the market based on volume-weighted price changes. It calculates two smoothed energy waves — bullish energy and bearish energy — using exponential moving averages of volume-adjusted price movements. The indicator detects trend changes and retests by comparing the relative strength of these waves. A saturation percentage quantifies the intensity of the current dominant side (bulls or bears) relative to recent highs. - High saturation (>70%) indicates strong momentum and dominance by bulls or bears. - Low saturation (<30%) suggests weak momentum and possible market indecision or consolidation. The background color highlights the current control: green for bulls, red for bears, with transparency indicating the saturation level. A label shows which side is currently in control along with the saturation percentage for quick interpretation. Use this tool to identify strong trends, possible retests, and momentum strength to support your trading decisions.
Pine Script® indicator
by rikkeholm
1
Recession Warning Model [BackQuant]Recession Warning Model Overview The Recession Warning Model (RWM) is a Pine Script® indicator designed to estimate the probability of an economic recession by integrating multiple macroeconomic, market sentiment, and labor market indicators. It combines over a dozen data series into a transparent, adaptive, and actionable tool for traders, portfolio managers, and researchers. The model provides customizable complexity levels, display modes, and data processing options to accommodate various analytical requirements while ensuring robustness through dynamic weighting and regime-aware adjustments. Purpose The RWM fulfills the need for a concise yet comprehensive tool to monitor recession risk. Unlike approaches relying on a single metric, such as yield-curve inversion, or extensive economic reports, it consolidates multiple data sources into a single probability output. The model identifies active indicators, their confidence levels, and the current economic regime, enabling users to anticipate downturns and adjust strategies accordingly. Core Features - Indicator Families : Incorporates 13 indicators across five categories: Yield, Labor, Sentiment, Production, and Financial Stress. - Dynamic Weighting : Adjusts indicator weights based on recent predictive accuracy, constrained within user-defined boundaries. - Leading and Coincident Split : Separates early-warning (leading) and confirmatory (coincident) signals, with adjustable weighting (default 60/40 mix). - Economic Regime Sensitivity : Modulates output sensitivity based on market conditions (Expansion, Late-Cycle, Stress, Crisis), using a composite of VIX, yield-curve, financial conditions, and credit spreads. - Display Options : Supports four modes—Probability (0-100%), Binary (four risk bins), Lead/Coincident, and Ensemble (blended probability). - Confidence Intervals : Reflects model stability, widening during high volatility or conflicting signals. - Alerts : Configurable thresholds (Watch, Caution, Warning, Alert) with persistence filters to minimize false signals. - Data Export : Enables CSV output for probabilities, signals, and regimes, facilitating external analysis in Python or R. Model Complexity Levels Users can select from four tiers to balance simplicity and depth: 1. Essential : Focuses on three core indicators—yield-curve spread, jobless claims, and unemployment change—for minimalistic monitoring. 2. Standard : Expands to nine indicators, adding consumer confidence, PMI, VIX, S&P 500 trend, money supply vs. GDP, and the Sahm Rule. 3. Professional : Includes all 13 indicators, incorporating financial conditions, credit spreads, JOLTS vacancies, and wage growth. 4. Research : Unlocks all indicators plus experimental settings for advanced users. Key Indicators Below is a summary of the 13 indicators, their data sources, and economic significance: - Yield-Curve Spread : Difference between 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields. Negative spreads signal banking sector stress. - Jobless Claims : Four-week moving average of unemployment claims. Sustained increases indicate rising layoffs. - Unemployment Change : Three-month change in unemployment rate. Sharp rises often precede recessions. - Sahm Rule : Triggers when unemployment rises 0.5% above its 12-month low, a reliable recession indicator. - Consumer Confidence : University of Michigan survey. Declines reflect household pessimism, impacting spending. - PMI : Purchasing Managers’ Index. Values below 50 indicate manufacturing contraction. - VIX : CBOE Volatility Index. Elevated levels suggest market anticipation of economic distress. - S&P 500 Growth : Weekly moving average trend. Declines reduce wealth effects, curbing consumption. - M2 + GDP Trend : Monitors money supply and real GDP. Simultaneous declines signal credit contraction. - NFCI : Chicago Fed’s National Financial Conditions Index. Positive values indicate tighter conditions. - Credit Spreads : Proxy for corporate bond spreads using 10-year vs. 2-year Treasury yields. Widening spreads reflect stress. - JOLTS Vacancies : Job openings data. Significant drops precede hiring slowdowns. - Wage Growth : Year-over-year change in average hourly earnings. Late-cycle spikes often signal economic overheating. Data Processing - Rate of Change (ROC) : Optionally applied to capture momentum in data series (default: 21-bar period). - Z-Score Normalization : Standardizes indicators to a common scale (default: 252-bar lookback). - Smoothing : Applies a short moving average to final signals (default: 5-bar period) to reduce noise. - Binary Signals : Generated for each indicator (e.g., yield-curve inverted or PMI below 50) based on thresholds or Z-score deviations. Probability Calculation 1. Each indicator’s binary signal is weighted according to user settings or dynamic performance. 2. Weights are normalized to sum to 100% across active indicators. 3. Leading and coincident signals are aggregated separately (if split mode is enabled) and combined using the specified mix. 4. The probability is adjusted by a regime multiplier, amplifying risk during Stress or Crisis regimes. 5. Optional smoothing ensures stable outputs. Display and Visualization - Probability Mode : Plots a continuous 0-100% recession probability with color gradients and confidence bands. - Binary Mode : Categorizes risk into four levels (Minimal, Watch, Caution, Alert) for simplified dashboards. - Lead/Coincident Mode : Displays leading and coincident probabilities separately to track signal divergence. - Ensemble Mode : Averages traditional and split probabilities for a balanced view. - Regime Background : Color-coded overlays (green for Expansion, orange for Late-Cycle, amber for Stress, red for Crisis). - Analytics Table : Optional dashboard showing probability, confidence, regime, and top indicator statuses. Practical Applications - Asset Allocation : Adjust equity or bond exposures based on sustained probability increases. - Risk Management : Hedge portfolios with VIX futures or options during regime shifts to Stress or Crisis. - Sector Rotation : Shift toward defensive sectors when coincident signals rise above 50%. - Trading Filters : Disable short-term strategies during high-risk regimes. - Event Timing : Scale positions ahead of high-impact data releases when probability and VIX are elevated. Configuration Guidelines - Enable ROC and Z-score for consistent indicator comparison unless raw data is preferred. - Use dynamic weighting with at least one economic cycle of data for optimal performance. - Monitor stress composite scores above 80 alongside probabilities above 70 for critical risk signals. - Adjust adaptation speed (default: 0.1) to 0.2 during Crisis regimes for faster indicator prioritization. - Combine RWM with complementary tools (e.g., liquidity metrics) for intraday or short-term trading. Limitations - Macro indicators lag intraday market moves, making RWM better suited for strategic rather than tactical trading. - Historical data availability may constrain dynamic weighting on shorter timeframes. - Model accuracy depends on the quality and timeliness of economic data feeds. Final Note The Recession Warning Model provides a disciplined framework for monitoring economic downturn risks. By integrating diverse indicators with transparent weighting and regime-aware adjustments, it empowers users to make informed decisions in portfolio management, risk hedging, or macroeconomic research. Regular review of model outputs alongside market-specific tools ensures its effective application across varying market conditions.
Pine Script® indicator
by BackQuant
3
Official USD Staggered Bands - ArgentinaOfficial USD Staggered Bands - Argentina The Central Bank, under the administration of Javier Milei (La Libertad Avanza), announced on Friday, April 11, 2025, a series of measures to eliminate the so-called "exchange rate restriction." In this new phase, the dollar's exchange rate on the Free Exchange Market (MLC) will be able to fluctuate within a band between $1,000 and $1,400 , the limits of which will be expanded at a rate of 1% monthly. The lines evolve daily, increasing as the public administration predicts. This way, you can know the likelihood of a Central Bank intervention to correct the variation and return the peso to a price within the band. The script runs under the ticker USDARS
Pine Script® indicator
by arielm00
ATR Plots + OverlayATR Plots + Overlay This tool calculates and displays Average True Range (ATR)-based levels on your chart for any selected timeframe, giving traders a quick visual reference for expected price movement relative to the most recent bar’s open price. It plots guide levels above and below that open and shows how much of the typical ATR-based range has already been covered—all in one interactive table and on-chart overlay. What It Does ATR Calculation: Uses true range data over a user-defined period (default 14), smoothed via RMA, SMA, EMA, or WMA, on the selected timeframe (e.g., 1h, 4h, daily) to calculate the ATR value. Projected Levels: Plots four reference levels relative to the open price of the most recent bar on the chosen timeframe: +100% ATR: Open + ATR +50% ATR: Open + 50% of ATR −50% ATR: Open − 50% of ATR −100% ATR: Open − ATR Coverage %: Tracks high and low prices for the current session on the selected timeframe and calculates what percentage of the ATR has already been covered: Coverage % = (High − Low) ÷ ATR × 100 Interactive Table: Shows the ATR value and current coverage percentage in a customizable table overlay. Position, color scheme, borders, transparency, and an optional empty top row are all adjustable via settings. Customization Options Table Settings: Position the table (top/bottom × left/right). Customize background color, text color, border color, and thickness. Optionally add an empty top row for spacing. Line Settings: Choose color, line style (solid/dotted/dashed), and width. Lines automatically update with each new bar on the selected timeframe, anchored to that bar’s open price. General Inputs: ATR length (number of bars). Smoothing method (RMA, SMA, EMA, WMA). Timeframe selection for ATR calculations (e.g., 15m, 1h, Daily). How to Use It for Trading Measure Volatility: Quickly gauge the expected price movement based on ATR for any timeframe. Identify Overextension: Use the coverage % to see how much of the expected ATR range is already consumed. Plan Entries & Exits: Align trade targets and stops with ATR levels for more objective planning. Visual Reference: Horizontal guide lines and table update automatically as new bars form, keeping information clear and actionable. Ideal For Intraday traders using ATR levels to frame trades. Swing traders wanting ATR-based reference points for larger timeframes. Anyone seeking a volatility-based framework for planning stops, targets, or identifying overextended conditions.
Pine Script® indicator
by abbadon9
Taylor Rule (Styled by Mongoose) + Macro Action PlanMethodology: This indicator implements the standard Taylor Rule to estimate a theoretically neutral federal funds rate (FFR) based on economic conditions. Taylor Rule Formula: FFR = r* + π + 0.5(π - π*) + 0.5 × Output Gap π = current inflation rate π* = inflation target r* = natural real interest rate Output Gap = 100 × (u* - u) / u* u = actual unemployment rate u* = natural unemployment rate Visuals: Teal Line = Taylor Rule Rate Orange Line = Manual Fed Funds Rate (custom input) Color Zone Highlight Red = policy rate far below Taylor estimate (gap > +1.0) Green = policy rate far above Taylor estimate (gap < -1.0) Reference Lines: 0% (Zero Bound) 2% (Neutral Rate) 5% (Hawkish Zone) How to Use: A Taylor Rate above the actual Fed Funds Rate may imply accommodative conditions. A Taylor Rate below the actual Fed Funds Rate may imply restrictive or tight policy. The gap between the Taylor estimate and actual rate helps assess potential macro pressure on markets, yields, and risk assets. Trader Application: Helps forecast shifts in Fed stance and macro policy inflection points Use as a regime filter for positioning in equities, bonds, FX, and commodities Can support long/short macro strategies based on rate gap and inflation dynamics Inputs (Editable): Inflation rate Inflation target Neutral real rate (r*) Actual and natural unemployment rate Manual FFR value
Pine Script® indicator
by TheRealMongoose
Bracket PreviewThe Bracket Preview indicator allows the user to set their intended bracket order distance (distance, in ticks, to take-profit and stop-loss) from the current live price so that a preview is generated and updated in real-time as price moves. This gives the trader a quick reference of where the bracket orders would be placed if a position were entered at that specific moment in time. This can be helpful by making it more obvious to the trader before a trade is placed exactly where these levels would be in relation to previous price action or if it would be better to wait for price to move to a more favorable level or accept a different Risk-Reward (RR) from this specific trade. • “If I entered a long position now, would my target be in front of or beyond a recent consolidation area where it is likely to run into resistance and potentially reverse before hitting my take-profit?” • “Would this bracket order place my stop-loss above or below a previous pivot or would I need to move it after entering the trade and potentially increase the risk on this trade to have it in a more logical level?” • “If price is in a range and I enter now, would my stop be in the middle of the range while my target is outside the top of the range? Maybe I should wait for price to move to an area where my target would be inside but near the top of the range while my stop loss is below the range so that I’m not taking unnecessary risk or being forced to take an unfavorable RR.”
Pine Script® indicator
by dakota10986
EUR/USD Multi-Layer Statistical Regression StrategyStrategy Overview This advanced EUR/USD trading system employs a triple-layer linear regression framework with statistical validation and ensemble weighting. It combines short, medium, and long-term regression analyses to generate high-confidence directional signals while enforcing strict risk controls. Core Components Multi-Layer Regression Engine: Parallel regression analysis across 3 customizable timeframes (short/medium/long) Projects future price values using prediction horizons Statistical significance filters (R-squared, correlation, slope thresholds) Signal Validation System: Lookback validation tests historical prediction accuracy Ensemble weighting of layer signals (adjustable influence per timeframe) Confidence scoring combining statistical strength, layer agreement, and validation accuracy Risk Management: Position sizing scaled by signal confidence (1%-100% of equity) Daily loss circuit breaker (halts trading at user-defined threshold) Forex-tailored execution (pip slippage, percentage-based commissions) Visual Intelligence: Real-time regression line plots (3 layered colors) Projection markers for short-term forecasts Background coloring for market bias indication Comprehensive statistics dashboard (R-squared metrics, validation scores, P&L) Key Parameters Category Settings Regression Short/Med/Long lengths (20/50/100 bars) Statistics Min R² (0.65), Correlation (0.7), Slope (0.0001) Validation 30-bar lookback, 10-bar projection Risk Controls 50% position size, 12% daily loss limit, 75% confidence threshold Trading Logic Entries require: Ensemble score > |0.5| Confidence > threshold Short & medium-term significance Active daily loss limit not breached Exits triggered by: Opposite high-confidence signals Daily loss limit violation (emergency exit) The strategy blends quantitative finance techniques with practical trading safeguards, featuring a self-optimizing design where signal quality directly impacts position sizing. The visual dashboard provides real-time feedback on model performance and market conditions.
Pine Script® strategy
by ZeroDayGray
BUY in HASH RibbonsHash Ribbons Indicator (BUY Signal) A TradingView Pine Script v6 implementation for identifying Bitcoin miner capitulation (“Springs”) and recovery phases based on hash rate data. It marks potential low-risk buying opportunities by tracking short- and long-term moving averages of the network hash rate. ⸻ Key Features • Hash Rate SMAs • Short-term SMA (default: 30 days) • Long-term SMA (default: 60 days) • Phase Markers • Gray circle: Short SMA crosses below long SMA (start of capitulation) • White circles: Ongoing capitulation, with brighter white when the short SMA turns upward • Yellow circle: Short SMA crosses back above long SMA (end of capitulation) • Orange circle: Buy signal once hash rate recovery aligns with bullish price momentum (10-day price SMA crosses above 20-day price SMA) • Display Modes • Ribbons: Plots the two SMAs as colored bands—red for capitulation, green for recovery • Oscillator: Shows the percentage difference between SMAs as a histogram (red for negative, blue for positive) • Optional Overlays • Bitcoin halving dates (2012, 2016, 2020, 2024) with dashed lines and labels • Raw hash rate data in EH/s • Alerts • Configurable alerts for capitulation start, recovery, and buy signals ⸻ How It Works 1. Data Source: Fetches daily hash rate values from a selected provider (e.g., IntoTheBlock, Quandl). 2. Capitulation Detection: When the 30-day SMA falls below the 60-day SMA, miners are likely capitulating. 3. Recovery Identification: A rising 30-day SMA during capitulation signals miner recovery. 4. Buy Signal: Confirmed when the hash rate recovery coincides with a bullish shift in price momentum (10-day price SMA > 20-day price SMA). ⸻ Inputs Hash Rate Short SMA: 30 days Hash Rate Long SMA: 60 days Plot Signals: On Plot Halvings: Off Plot Raw Hash Rate: Off ⸻ Considerations • Timeframe: Best applied on daily charts to capture meaningful miner behavior. • Data Reliability: Ensure the chosen hash rate source provides consistent, gap-free data. • Risk Management: Use alongside other technical indicators (e.g., RSI, MACD) and fundamental analysis. • Backtesting: Evaluate performance over different market cycles before live deployment.
Pine Script® indicator
by Tin2100
Combined Predictive Indicator### Combined Predictive Zones & Levels This indicator is a powerful hybrid tool designed to provide a comprehensive map of potential future price action. It merges two distinct predictive models into a single, cohesive view, helping traders identify key levels of support, resistance, and areas of high confluence. #### How It Works: Two Models in One This script is built on two core components that you can use together or analyze separately: **Part 1: Classic Range & Fibonacci Prediction** This model uses classic technical analysis principles to project a potential range for the upcoming price action. * **Highest High / Lowest Low:** It identifies the significant trading range over a user-defined lookback period. * **Fibonacci Levels:** It automatically plots key Fibonacci retracement levels (e.g., 38.2% and 61.8%) within this range, which often act as critical support or resistance. * **ATR & Average Range:** It calculates a "predicted" upper and lower boundary based on the average historical range and current volatility (ATR). **Part 2: Advanced Predictive Ranges (Self-Adjusting Channels)** This is a dynamic model that creates adaptive support and resistance zones based on a smoothed average price and volatility. * **Dynamic Average:** It uses a unique moving average that only adjusts when the price moves significantly, creating a stable baseline. * **ATR-Based Zones:** It projects multiple levels of support (S1, S2) and resistance (R1, R2) around this average, which widen and narrow based on market volatility. These zones often signal areas where price might stall or reverse. #### Key Features: * **Hybrid Model for Confluence:** The true power of this indicator lies in finding where the levels from both models overlap. A Fibonacci level aligning with a Predictive Range support zone is a much stronger signal. * **Comprehensive Data Table:** A clean, on-chart table displays the precise values of all key predictive levels, allowing for quick reference and precise trade planning. * **Multi-Timeframe (MTF) Capability:** The Advanced Predictive Ranges can be calculated on a higher timeframe, giving you a broader market context. * **Fully Customizable:** All lengths, multipliers, and levels for both models are fully adjustable in the settings to fit any asset or trading style. * **Clear Visuals:** All zones and levels are color-coded for intuitive and easy-to-read analysis. #### How to Use: 1. Look for areas of **confluence** where multiple levels from both models cluster together. These are high-probability zones for price reactions. 2. Use the Predictive Range zones (S1/S2 and R1/R2) as potential targets for trades or as areas to watch for entries and exits. 3. Pay attention to the on-chart table for exact price levels to set limit orders or stop-losses. **Disclaimer:** This script is an analytical tool for educational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. All trading involves risk. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always use this indicator as part of a comprehensive trading strategy with proper risk management. Feedback is welcome! If you find this tool useful, please leave a like.
Pine Script® indicator
by TiamatCrypto
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