Bull/Bear vs Base vs Index (% Change Spread)Visualizes the performance gap ("Beta Decay") between 3x Leveraged ETFs (SOXL/SOXS) and their underlying sector (SOXX), relative to the S&P 500 (SPY).
This indicator is designed for traders who trade leveraged products (like SOXL/SOXS, TQQQ/SQQQ) and need to see true relative strength beyond simple price action.
It calculates the percentage change over a user-defined lookback period for four instruments:
Base (1x): The sector benchmark (Default: SOXX).
Bull (3x): The leveraged long ETF (Default: SOXL).
Bear (-3x): The leveraged inverse ETF (Default: SOXS).
Index: The broad market zero-line (Default: SPY).
It then plots the Spread to reveal the health of the trend:
Bull Spread (Green Line): Bull % - Base %
Bear Spread (Red Line): Bear % - Base %
Base vs Index (Filled Area): Base % - SPY %
🧠 The Logic: Why Use Spreads?
In a perfectly efficient trending market, a 3x Bull ETF should move exactly 300% of the underlying asset. However, in choppy or volatile markets, volatility decay (beta slippage) causes leveraged ETFs to underperform mathematically.
Positive Spread: The leveraged ETF is successfully capturing momentum (The "Sweet Spot").
Negative Spread: The leveraged ETF is suffering from drag or the underlying asset is chopping.
📈 Recommended Trading Plan
Note: This indicator works best as a filter for entry conditions, not a standalone signal. Always use proper risk management.
Strategy A: The "Clean Trend" (Momentum)
Goal: Enter a 3x position only when volatility drag is minimal.
1. Bull Signal:
Condition 1: The Base vs Index (Area) is Green (Sector is outperforming SPY).
Condition 2: The Bull Spread (Green Line) is Positive (> 0).
Why: This confirms the sector is strong AND the 3x ETF is amplifying that move efficiently without decay eating the profits.
2. Bear Signal:
Condition 1: The Base vs Index (Area) is Red (Sector is lagging SPY).
Condition 2: The Bear Spread (Red Line) is Positive (> 0).
Why: This confirms the sector is crashing and the Bear ETF is successfully capturing the downside momentum.
Strategy B: The "Decay Avoidance" (Cash is King)
Goal: Avoid leveraged funds during chop.
Condition: If BOTH the Bull Spread and Bear Spread are Negative (< 0) (below the zero line).
Action: Stay in Cash or trade the 1x underlying (SOXX) only.
Why: When both spreads are negative, it mathematically proves that the market is too choppy for leverage. Both the Long and Short leveraged funds are losing value relative to the underlying asset.
Features:
Pine Script® v6: Updated for the latest engine performance and visuals.
Dashboard Table: Real-time percentage spreads displayed directly on the chart (customizable position).
Fully Customizable: Works on any sector (e.g., set inputs to QQQ/TQQQ/SQQQ for Tech).
Disclaimer:
Trading leveraged ETFs involves significant risk. This script is for educational purposes only.
Leveraged
LRS-Strategy: 200-EMA Buffer & Long/Short Signals LRS-Strategy: 200-EMA Buffer & Long/Short Signals
This indicator is designed to help traders implement the Leveraged Return Strategy (LRS) using the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) as a key trend-following signal. The indicator offers clear long and short signals by analyzing the price movements relative to the 200-day EMA, enhanced by customizable buffer zones for increased precision.
Key Features:
200-Day EMA: The main trend indicator. When the price is above the 200-day EMA, the market is considered in an uptrend, and when it is below, it indicates a downtrend.
Customizable Buffer Zones: Users can define a percentage buffer around the 200-day EMA (default is 3%). The upper and lower buffer zones help filter out noise and prevent premature signals.
Precise Long/Short Signals:
Long Signal: Triggered when the price moves from below the lower buffer zone, crosses the 200-day EMA, and then breaks above the upper buffer zone.
Short Signal: Triggered when the price moves from above the upper buffer zone, crosses the 200-day EMA, and then breaks below the lower buffer zone.
Alternating Signals: Ensures that a new signal (long or short) is only generated after the opposite signal has been triggered, preventing multiple signals of the same type without a reversal.
Clear Visual Aids: The indicator displays the 200-day EMA and buffer zones on the chart, along with buy (long) and sell (short) signals. This makes it easy to track trends and time entries/exits.
How to Use:
Long Entry: Look for the price to move below the lower buffer, cross the 200-day EMA from below, and then break out of the upper buffer to confirm a long signal.
Short Entry: Look for the price to move above the upper buffer, cross below the 200-day EMA, and then break below the lower buffer to confirm a short signal.
This indicator is perfect for traders who prefer a structured, trend-following approach, using clear rules to minimize noise and identify meaningful long or short opportunities.
Leveraged Share VolumeHello everyone,
Did this quick reference indicator and figured I would share it as nothing like it exists that I could find.
What this does is it pulls leveraged share data and displays the bull share and bear share volume.
There are 5 pre-programmed shares. These include:
SPY
Pulls bull share data from: SPXL and UPRO
Pulls bear share data from: SPXU and SPXS
IWM
Pulls bull share data from: TNA
Pulls bear share data from: TZA
DIA
Pulls bull share data from: UDOW
Pulls bear share data from: SDOW
QQQ
Pulls bull share data from: TQQQ
Pulls bear share data from: SQQQ
XLE
Pulls bull share data from: ERX
Pulls bear share data from: ERY
As there continues to be more leveraged shares available (for example, AAPU, APPD, MSFT, TSLA, etc.) there is also the option to use these manual tickers as these shares become available. The image below shows the data input screen:
The indicator will default to show the data as a ratio. The ratio is calculated by the total bear shares over the total bull shares (sell to buy ratio). If you unselect the Ratio option (displayed in the image above), it will show the raw volume.
When data is displayed as a ratio, you will see the white SMA line. This will show you the average ratio over a 14 period lookback. This is customizeable under the SMA Length input (shown in the image above).
Indicator's purpose:
The aim of the indicator is to provide context as to where the current sentiment is. Its similar in concept to a put to call ratio. The idea is, the more bearish people are, the more inverse shares are being bought, the higher the ratio or raw volume for bear shares and vice versa for bullish situations.
If you would like some more contextual information about the powers of tracking this type of data for trading purposes, you can check out this idea I published about the relationship between leveraged shares and market sentiment/behaviour:
Otherwise, the indicator is pretty straight forward!
Its not meant to be anything but a reference indicator to help give you context of the current market positioning.
If you have any questions or suggestions, please feel free to leave them below.
Thank you for reading and checking out the indicator!
Safe trades everyone!
