Market State Intelligence [Interakktive]Market State Intelligence (MSI) is a diagnostic market-context indicator that reveals how the market is behaving — not where price "should" go.
MSI does not generate buy/sell signals. Instead, it classifies market conditions into clear behavioural regimes by continuously measuring:
- DRIVE (directional effort)
- OPPOSITION (absorption / resistance)
- STABILITY (structural persistence)
MSI is designed to answer three practical questions:
- What state is the market in right now?
- Is energy building, releasing, or decaying?
- Is participation aligned with price, or opposing it?
█ WHAT MSI DOES
MSI operates as a real-time regime classification engine that processes each closed bar through three independent measurement systems:
DRIVE — Directional Effort (0–100)
- Displacement efficiency (net progress vs total path)
- Range expansion quality (actual range vs expected ATR range)
- Body dominance (body vs candle range)
OPPOSITION — Absorption / Resistance (0–100)
- Wick pressure (rejection relative to attempt)
- Effort–result gap (high effort, low progress)
- Reversal density (counter-moves frequency)
STABILITY — Persistence (0–100)
- Condition persistence (how long conditions hold)
- Variance score (flip frequency)
- Follow-through consistency (reaction continuity)
These three forces feed a deterministic classifier with hysteresis (anti-flicker) to identify five regimes:
COMPRESSION — low drive, low opposition, higher stability (pressure building, direction unclear)
EXPANSION — high drive, low opposition (directional energy release)
TREND — medium-high drive, higher stability, low-medium opposition (healthy continuation)
DISTRIBUTION — medium drive, high opposition (effort absorbed; progress blocked)
TRANSITION — rapidly rising opposition, low stability (regime breakdown / uncertainty)
█ WHAT MSI DOES NOT DO
- No buy/sell signals, entries/exits, or performance claims
- No prediction of future direction
- No repainting: calculations use closed-bar data only
MSI is a market state layer intended to support your execution framework.
█ VISUAL SYSTEM
MSI uses a layered visual grammar designed to remain readable on live charts:
Regime Ribbon
A thin horizontal band showing the current regime via colour. Ribbon opacity reflects regime confidence (stronger confidence = more visible).
Pressure Envelope (core visual)
A soft corridor around price that expands with Drive and becomes more visible as Opposition increases. This visualises "pressure thickness" around current action (not a volatility band for entries).
Structural Memory
Faint background stains appear where regimes previously failed (e.g., expansion collapsing into absorption). These are behavioural context zones showing where market intention was rejected — not support/resistance.
Regime Change Markers (optional)
Subtle labels appear when regimes transition after confirmation. Useful for replay and education.
Effort Halo (optional)
Candle highlighting when Opposition materially exceeds Drive, indicating absorption/inefficiency.
█ HUD PANEL
The HUD displays:
- Current regime name + colour indicator
- A context gate showing whether conditions are aligned with long-bias or short-bias context (not an entry/exit system)
█ REGIME LEGEND
When enabled, displays:
- A one-line definition of the current regime
- Live Drive / Opposition / Stability values for interpretation
█ TIME-TO-DECISION METER
A visual pressure gauge that tends to fill during Compression (energy building) and drain during Expansion (energy releasing). It is a state-tracking meter, not a timing tool.
█ SETTINGS
MSI — Settings
- Preset Mode: Scalper / Swing / Position
- Analysis Mode (Minimal): ON = subtle visuals, OFF = full intensity
- Regime Ribbon, Structural Memory, HUD Panel, Time-to-Decision Meter, Effort Halo
MSI — Visual Options
- Show Regime Changes: Labels when regime transitions occur
- Show Regime Legend: Definition and live values display
- Panel Position: Move the entire panel anywhere on chart
MSI — Advanced (Tuning)
- Sensitivity (0.5–2.0)
- Smoothing (0.5–2.0)
- Memory Decay (0.5–2.0)
- Visual Intensity (Low / Medium / High)
█ PRESETS EXPLAINED
Scalper
Higher sensitivity + lower smoothing + faster memory decay. Best for 1m–15m monitoring.
Swing (default)
Balanced behaviour. Best for 15m–4H analysis.
Position
Lower sensitivity + higher smoothing + slower memory decay. Best for 4H–1D macro context.
█ STRUCTURAL MEMORY
When a regime fails (example: Expansion → Distribution), MSI creates a memory imprint:
- Fixed stain window (preset dependent)
- Strength decays over time
- Limited to a maximum number of imprints to reduce chart clutter
These zones represent behavioural rejection, not levels.
█ SUITABLE MARKETS
MSI is designed for Forex, Crypto, Indices, Stocks, and Commodities.
Works from intraday to Daily, with particularly strong readability on 15m–4H.
█ DISCLAIMER
This indicator is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, trading recommendations, or solicitation. Trading involves substantial risk. Always use proper risk management and make independent decisions.
Marketcontext
Trojan Cycle: Dip & Profit Hunter📉 Crypto is changing. Your signals should too.
This script doesn’t try to outguess price — it helps you track capital rotation and flow behavior in alignment with the evolving macro structure of the digital asset market.
Trojan Cycle: Dip & Profit Hunter is a signal engine built to support and validate the capital rotation models outlined in the Trojan Cycle and Synthetic Rotation theses — available via RWCS_LTD’s published charts
It is not a classic “buy low, sell high” tool. It is a structural filter that uses price/volume statistics to surface accumulation zones, synthetic traps, and macro context shifts — all aligned with the institutionalization of crypto post-2024.
🧠 Purpose & Value
Crypto no longer follows the retail-led, halving-driven pattern of 2017 or 2021.
Instead, institutional infrastructure, regulatory filters, and equity-market Trojan horses define the new path of capital.
This tool helps you visualize that path by interpreting behavior through statistical imbalances and real-time momentum signals.
Use it to:
Track where capital is accumulating or exiting
Identify signals consistent with true cycle rotation (vs. synthetic traps)
Validate your macro view with real-time statistical context
🔍 How It Works
The engine combines four signal layers:
1. Z-Score Logic
- Measures how far price and volume have deviated from their mean
- Detects dips, blowoffs, and exhaustion zones
2. Percentile Logic
- Compares current price and volume to historical rank distribution
- Flags statistically rare conditions (e.g. bottom 10% price, top 90% volume)
3. Combined Context Engine
- Integrates both models to generate one of 36 unique output states
- Each state provides a labeled market context (e.g., 🟢 Confluent Buy, 🔴 Confluent Sell, 🧨 Synthetic Trap )
4. Momentum Spread & Divergence
- Measures whether price is leading volume (trap risk) or volume is leading price (accumulation)
- Outputs intuitive momentum context with emoji-coded alerts
📋 What You See
🧠 Contextual Table UI with key Z-Scores, percentiles, signals, and market commentary
🎯 Emoji-coded signals to quickly grasp high-probability setups or risk zones
🌊 Optional overlays: price/volume divergence, momentum spread
🎨 Visual table customization (size, position) and chart highlights for signal clarity
🔔 Alert System
✅ Single dynamic alert using alert() that only fires when signal context changes
Prevents alert fatigue and allows clean webhook/automation integration
🧭 Use Cases
For macro cycle traders: Track where we are in the Trojan Cycle using statistical context
For thesis explorers: Use the 36-output signal map to match against your rotation thesis
For capital rotation watchers: Identify structural setups consistent with ETF-driven or compliance-filtered flow
For narrative skeptics: Avoid synthetic altseason traps where volume lags or flow dries up
🧪 Suggested Pairing for Thesis Validation
To use this tool as part of a thesis-confirmation framework , pair it with:
BTC.D — Bitcoin Dominance
ETH/BTC — Ethereum strength vs. Bitcoin
TOTALE100/ETH — Altcoin strength relative to ETH
RWCS_LTD’s published charts and macro cycle models
🏁 Final Note
Crypto has matured. So should your signals.
This tool doesn’t try to game the next 2 candles. It helps you understand the current phase in a compliance-filtered, institutionalized rotation model.
It’s not built for hype — it’s built for conviction.
Explore the thesis → Validate the structure → Trade with clarity.
🚨 Disclaimer
This script is not financial advice. It is an analytical tool designed to support market structure research and rotation thesis validation. Use this as part of a broader framework including technical structure, dominance charts, and macro data.
