PPI Inflation Monitor (Change YoY & MoM)📊 PPI Inflation Monitor - Leading Inflation Indicator
The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures wholesale/producer-level prices and serves as a critical leading indicator for consumer inflation trends. This tool helps you anticipate CPI movements and identify corporate margin pressures before they show up in earnings.
🎯 KEY FEATURES:
- Dual Perspective Analysis:
- Year-over-Year (YoY): Histogram bars showing annual producer price inflation
- Month-over-Month (MoM): Line overlay showing monthly wholesale price changes
- Visual Reference System:
- Dashed line at 2% (typical target for producer price inflation)
- Dotted line at 0.17% (equivalent monthly target)
- Color-coded bars: Red above target, Green below target
- Real-Time Data Table:
- Current PPI Index value
- YoY inflation rate with color coding
- MoM inflation rate with color coding
- Deviation from target level
- Automated Alerts:
- YoY crosses above/below target
- MoM crosses above/below target
- Early warning system for inflation trends
📈 WHY PPI IS YOUR EARLY WARNING SYSTEM:
PPI typically leads CPI by 1-3 months because:
- Producers face cost increases first
- These costs are eventually passed to consumers
- Shows whether companies can maintain pricing power
Rising PPI with stable CPI = Margin compression → Bearish for stocks
Rising PPI followed by rising CPI = Broad inflation → Fed hawkishness incoming
Falling PPI = Disinflationary trend starting → Positive for risk assets
🔍 TRADING APPLICATIONS:
1. Lead Time Advantage: Position before CPI confirms PPI trends
2. Sector Rotation: High PPI = favor companies with pricing power
3. Margin Analysis: PPI-CPI divergence = margin pressure/expansion signals
4. Fed Anticipation: PPI acceleration = Fed likely to turn hawkish soon
💡 STRATEGIC USE CASES:
- Value vs. Growth: Rising PPI favors value stocks with pricing power
- Commodities: PPI often correlates with commodity price trends
- Small Caps: More vulnerable to input cost increases (high PPI = cautious)
- Corporate Earnings: Anticipate margin pressure before quarterly reports
🔄 COMBINE WITH:
- CPI: Confirm if producer costs reach consumers
- PCE: Validate Fed's preferred inflation metric response
- Fed Funds Rate: Assess if Fed is behind/ahead of curve
📊 DATA SOURCE:
Official PPI data from FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data), updated monthly when new data releases occur.
🎨 CUSTOMIZATION:
Fully customizable:
- Toggle YoY/MoM displays
- Adjust reference target levels
- Customize colors
- Show/hide absolute PPI values
Perfect for: Macro traders, fundamental analysts, earnings traders, and investors seeking early inflation signals before they appear in consumer prices.
⚡ Remember: PPI leads CPI. Use this advantage to position ahead of the crowd.
PPI
Odd_mod Econ CalendarA modification of Economic Calendar Events: FOMC, CPI, and more written by jdehorty . Please send all tips his way as he is maintaining the underlying data for the Calendar and the original concept.
List of changes:
Optimized code, will only run once on initialization now(No random line in middle of screen on bar change)
Legend - Added short names
Legend - Removed header
Legend - Made repositionable with selectable top margins
Legend - Removed data name from legend when it is disabled
Legend - Removed border
Original Description by jdehorty :
This script plots major events from the Economic Calendar that often correspond to major pivot points in various markets. It also includes built-in logic to retroactively adjust larger time intervals (i.e. greater than 1 hour) to be correctly aligned with the interval during which the event occurred.
Events are taken from the Economic Calendar and will be updated periodically at the following library:
EconomicCalendar
The above library can be used to conveniently access date-related data for major Meetings, Releases, and Announcements as integer arrays, which can be used in other indicators. Currently, it has support for the following events:
FOMC Meetings
The FOMC meets eight times a year to determine the course of monetary policy . The FOMC's decisions are based on a review of economic and financial developments and its assessment of the likely effects of these developments on the economic outlook.
FOMC Minutes
The FOMC minutes are released three weeks after each FOMC meeting. The minutes provide a detailed account of the FOMC's discussion of economic and financial developments and its assessment of the likely effects of these developments on the economic outlook.
Producer Price Index (PPI) Releases
The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures changes in the price level of goods and services sold by domestic producers. The PPI is a weighted average of prices of a basket of goods and services, such as transportation, food, and medical care. PPI is a leading indicator of CPI .
Consumer Price Index ( CPI ) Releases
The Consumer Price Index ( CPI ) measures changes in the price level of goods and services purchased by households. The CPI is a weighted average of prices of a basket of consumer goods and services, such as transportation, food, and medical care. CPI is one of the most widely used measures of inflation .
Consumer Sentiment Index ( CSI ) Releases
The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index ( CSI ) is a measure of consumer attitudes about the economy. The CSI is based on a monthly survey of U.S. households and reflects the consumers' assessment of present and future economic conditions. The CSI is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. economic activity.
Consumer Confidence Index ( CCI ) Releases
The Consumer Confidence Index is a survey that measures how optimistic or pessimistic consumers are regarding their expected financial situation.
Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Releases
The Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) is a measure of the change in the number of employed persons, excluding farm workers and government employees. The NFP is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. economic activity.
EconomicCalendarLibrary "EconomicCalendar"
This library is a data provider for important dates and times from the Economic Calendar.
events()
Returns the list of dates supported by this library as a string array.
Returns: array : Names of events supported by this library
fomcMeetings()
Gets the FOMC Meeting Dates. The FOMC meets eight times a year to determine the course of monetary policy. The FOMC announces its decision on the federal funds rate at the conclusion of each meeting and also issues a statement that provides information on the economic outlook and the Committee's assessment of the risks to the outlook.
Returns: array : FOMC Meeting Dates as timestamps
fomcMinutes()
Gets the FOMC Meeting Minutes Dates. The FOMC Minutes are released three weeks after each FOMC meeting. The Minutes provide information on the Committee's deliberations and decisions at the meeting.
Returns: array : FOMC Meeting Minutes Dates as timestamps
ppiReleases()
Gets the Producer Price Index (PPI) Dates. The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. The PPI is a leading indicator of CPI, and CPI is a leading indicator of inflation.
Returns: array : PPI Dates as timestamps
cpiReleases()
Gets the Consumer Price Index (CPI) Rekease Dates. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures changes in the price level of a market basket of consumer goods and services purchased by households. The CPI is a leading indicator of inflation.
Returns: array : CPI Dates as timestamps
csiReleases()
Gets the CSI release dates. The Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) is a survey of consumer attitudes about the economy and their personal finances. The CSI is a leading indicator of consumer spending.
Returns: array : CSI Dates as timestamps
cciReleases()
Gets the CCI release dates. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is a survey of consumer attitudes about the economy and their personal finances. The CCI is a leading indicator of consumer spending.
Returns: array : CCI Dates as timestamps
nfpReleases()
Gets the NFP release dates. Nonfarm payrolls is an employment report released monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) that measures the change in the number of employed people in the United States.
Returns: array : NFP Dates as timestamps
