Multi TF Trend Indicator
...Mark Douglas in his book Trading in the Zone wrote
The longer the time frame, the more significant the trend, so a trending market on a daily bar chart is more significant than a trending market on a 30-minute bar chart. Therefore, the trend on the daily bar chart would take precedence over the trend on the 30-minute bar chart and would be considered the major trend. To determine the direction of the major trend, look at what is happening on a daily bar chart. If the trend is up on the daily, you are only going to look for a sell-off or retracement down to what your edge defines as support on the 30-minute chart. That's where you will become a buyer. On the other hand, if the trend is down on the daily, you are only going to look for a rally up to what your edge defines as a resistance level to be a seller on the 30-minute chart. Your objective is to determine, in a downtrending market, how far it can rally on an intraday basis and still not violate the symmetry of the longer trend. In an up-trending market, your objective is to determine how far it can sell off on an intraday basis without violating the symmetry of the longer trend. There's usually very little risk associated with these intraday support and resistance points, because you don't have to let the market go very far beyond them to tell you the trade isn't working.
The purpose of this indicator to show both the major and minor trend on the same chart with no need to switch between timeframes
Script includes
timeframe to determine the major trend
price curve, close price is default, but you can pick MA you want
type of coloring, either curve color or the background color
Implementation details
major trend is determined by the slope of the price curve
Further improvements
a variation of techniques for determining the major trend (crossing MA, pivot points etc.)
major trend change alerts
Thanks @loxx for pullData helper function
Search in scripts for "30年国债收益率"
TARVIS Labs - Bitcoin Macro Bottom/Top SignalsSCRIPT DESCRIPTION
This is a script specifically written to help provide indicators from a macro view. This script is best run on the 1 day interval on Bitstamp's $BTCUSD chart. It helps indicate when to accumulate bitcoin, and when its in a bull run when there are local tops, strong top warnings, and a signal to exit a bull run. This is described further below.
If you don't have interest in trading on the way to the top I suggest turning off the following indicators in the settings of the indicator:
- Opportunity To Buy Back In Indicator
- Local Top Near Bull Run Top Indicator
ACCUMULATION ZONE INDICATOR - LIGHT GREEN
Description
When we look at the history of Bitcoin every bottom has crossed below the 100 week EMA. Once it does its accompanied by hash ribbon cross with miner capitulation. After that is the prime time to accumulate as theres a clearer signal the bottom is in. Specifically, a signal to look for is the 14 day MACD/signal cross and the 14 day MACD continuing to stay above the signal until the price returns above the 100 week EMA. This is prime accumulation territory.
Strategy for Usage
A good strategy to use when accumulating the bottom is dollar-cost averaging over a 30 day period. The accumulation zone can last longer than 30 days but 30 days is a good range of time to DCA.
STRONG BUY IN ACCUMULATION ZONE INDICATOR - DARK GREEN
Description
We can add to the bottoming signal by looking for post-downtrend reversals inside the bottoming signal. We do this by using a 9/19 daily cross.
Strategy for Usage
These post-downtrend reversals can potentially provide better targeted days for accumulation than the broader bottoming signal and can be used to add more on that day than on an average day for the dollar cost average strategy. Say for example, use 1/3 of funds on these days rather than 1/30th.
OPPORTUNITY TO BUY BACK IN INDICATOR - BLUE
Description
When the 1d 18 EMA > 1d 63 EMA and the 12/52 1d crosses. These together provide good buy opportunities to buy bitcoin.
Strategy for Usage
If you happen to find yourself out of the market from your own TA or a trade, this signal can provide a buy opportunity to reenter the market if you're out of it.
BULL RUN LOCAL TOP INDICATOR - ORANGE
Description
We will similarly use the 100 week EMA to determine trend reversal into a bull run. When we see the 100 week EMA uptrending, we can begin to look for local tops using the 9/19 daily MACD/signal bearish cross along with the 12 EMA having a negative slope, which could be the beginning signal for a local top.
Strategy for Usage
This is a rather light indicator, but can be used in tandem with your own technical analysis to determine if you want to reenter after you exit from its signal.
LOCAL TOP NEAR BULL RUN TOP INDICATOR - RED
Description
When the 100 week EMA is in an uptrend we can look for significant loss of momentum in order to determine if a local top is in near a bull run top. Similar to the Bull Run Local Top Indicator, this strategy uses a MACD/signal cross but instead uses the 30/65 day EMAs.
Strategy for Usage
Ideally the right strategy to use here is to exit the market when this indicator starts. When the indicator ends if the "End of Bull Run Indicator" is not showing on the chart you can buy back into the market.
TOP IS LIKELY IN INDICATOR
Description
When the 100 week EMA is in a very strong uptrend and the 9/19 weekly MACD/signal bearish cross occurs, and the 63 EMA begins to downtrend.
Strategy for Usage
This signal typically accompanies the "Local Top Near Bull Run Top Indicator" therefore if you're following the strategy you would likely already be out of the market, but if you're not and this signal fires its a strong signal the top is in and we're likely going to start seeing a strong retrace. This is typically right before we see the "End of Bull Run Indicator". There is only one occurrence where it wasn't followed by a large drop & the "End of Bull Run Indicator" and that was in the 2017 bull run where there were many strong retracements post local top. The likelihood we see that again is low, but if it were to happen you can buy back into the market when the "Top is Likely In Indicator" and the "Local Top Near Bull Run Top Indicator" are not firing.
TOP IS LIKELY IN INDICATOR
Description
When the 100 week EMA is in a strong uptrend and the 9/19 weekly MACD/signal bearish cross occurs, and the 63 EMA begins to downtrend.
Strategy for Usage
This signal typically accompanies the "Local Top Near Bull Run Top Indicator" therefore if you're following the strategy you would likely already be out of the market, but if you're not and this signal fires its a strong signal the top is in and we're likely going to start seeing a strong retrace. This is typically right before we see the "End of Bull Run Indicator". There is only one occurrence where it wasn't followed by a large drop & the "End of Bull Run Indicator" and that was in the 2017 bull run where there were many strong retracements post local top. The likelihood we see that again is low, but if it were to happen you can buy back into the market when the "Top is Likely In Indicator" and the "Local Top Near Bull Run Top Indicator" are not firing.
END OF BULL RUN INDICATOR
Description
When the 100 week EMA is in an uptrend and the 1d 18 EMA crosses the 1d 63 EMA.
Strategy for Usage
When the 100 week EMA is a strong uptrend and the 18/63 cross occurs the top is very likely in. It has occurred in every bull run top leading to the bear market.
Time█ OVERVIEW
This library is a Pine Script™ programmer’s tool containing a variety of time related functions to calculate or measure time, or format time into string variables.
█ CONCEPTS
`formattedTime()`, `formattedDate()` and `formattedDay()`
Pine Script™, like many other programming languages, uses timestamps in UNIX format, expressed as the number of milliseconds elapsed since 00:00:00 UTC, 1 January 1970. These three functions convert a UNIX timestamp to a formatted string for human consumption.
These are examples of ways you can call the functions, and the ensuing results:
CODE RESULT
formattedTime(timenow) >>> "00:40:35"
formattedTime(timenow, "short") >>> "12:40 AM"
formattedTime(timenow, "full") >>> "12:40:35 AM UTC"
formattedTime(1000 * 60 * 60 * 3.5, "HH:mm") >>> "03:30"
formattedDate(timenow, "short") >>> "4/30/22"
formattedDate(timenow, "medium") >>> "Apr 30, 2022"
formattedDate(timenow, "full") >>> "Saturday, April 30, 2022"
formattedDay(timenow, "E") >>> "Sat"
formattedDay(timenow, "dd.MM.yy") >>> "30.04.22"
formattedDay(timenow, "yyyy.MM.dd G 'at' hh:mm:ss z") >>> "2022.04.30 AD at 12:40:35 UTC"
These functions use str.format() and some of the special formatting codes it allows for. Pine Script™ documentation does not yet contain complete specifications on these codes, but in the meantime you can find some information in the The Java™ Tutorials and in Java documentation of its MessageFormat class . Note that str.format() implements only a subset of the MessageFormat features in Java.
`secondsSince()`
The introduction of varip variables in Pine Script™ has made it possible to track the time for which a condition is true when a script is executing on a realtime bar. One obvious use case that comes to mind is to enable trades to exit only when the exit condition has been true for a period of time, whether that period is shorter that the chart's timeframe, or spans across multiple realtime bars.
For more information on this function and varip please see our Using `varip` variables publication.
`timeFrom( )`
When plotting lines , boxes , and labels one often needs to calculate an offset for past or future end points relative to the time a condition or point occurs in history. Using xloc.bar_index is often the easiest solution, but some situations require the use of xloc.bar_time . We introduce `timeFrom()` to assist in calculating time-based offsets. The function calculates a timestamp using a negative (into the past) or positive (into the future) offset from the current bar's starting or closing time, or from the current time of day. The offset can be expressed in units of chart timeframe, or in seconds, minutes, hours, days, months or years. This function was ported from our Time Offset Calculation Framework .
`formattedNoOfPeriods()` and `secondsToTfString()`
Our final two offerings aim to confront two remaining issues:
How much time is represented in a given timestamp?
How can I produce a "simple string" timeframe usable with request.security() from a timeframe expressed in seconds?
`formattedNoOfPeriods()` converts a time value in ms to a quantity of time units. This is useful for calculating a difference in time between 2 points and converting to a desired number of units of time. If no unit is supplied, the function automatically chooses a unit based on a predetermined time step.
`secondsToTfString()` converts an input time in seconds to a target timeframe string in timeframe.period string format. This is useful for implementing stepped timeframes relative to the chart time, or calculating multiples of a given chart timeframe. Results from this function are in simple form, which means they are useable as `timeframe` arguments in functions like request.security() .
█ NOTES
Although the example code is commented in detail, the size of the library justifies some further explanation as many concepts are demonstrated. Key points are as follows:
• Pivot points are used to draw lines from. `timeFrom( )` calculates the length of the lines in the specified unit of time.
By default the script uses 20 units of the charts timeframe. Example: a 1hr chart has arrows 20 hours in length.
• At the point of the arrows `formattedNoOfPeriods()` calculates the line length in the specified unit of time from the input menu.
If “Use Input Time” is disabled, a unit of time is automatically assigned.
• At each pivot point a label with a formatted date or time is placed with one of the three formatting helper functions to display the time or date the pivot occurred.
• A label on the last bar showcases `secondsSince()` . The label goes through three stages of detection for a timed alert.
If the difference between the high and the open in ticks exceeds the input value, a timer starts and will turn the label red once the input time is exceeded to simulate a time-delayed alert.
• In the bottom right of the screen `secondsToTfString()` posts the chart timeframe in a table. This can be multiplied from the input menu.
Look first. Then leap.
█ FUNCTIONS
formattedTime(timeInMs, format)
Converts a UNIX timestamp (in milliseconds) to a formatted time string.
Parameters:
timeInMs : (series float) Timestamp to be formatted.
format : (series string) Format for the time. Optional. The default value is "HH:mm:ss".
Returns: (string) A string containing the formatted time.
formattedDate(timeInMs, format)
Converts a UNIX timestamp (in milliseconds) to a formatted date string.
Parameters:
timeInMs : (series float) Timestamp to be formatted.
format : (series string) Format for the date. Optional. The default value is "yyyy-MM-dd".
Returns: (string) A string containing the formatted date.
formattedDay(timeInMs, format)
Converts a UNIX timestamp (in milliseconds) to the name of the day of the week.
Parameters:
timeInMs : (series float) Timestamp to be formatted.
format : (series string) Format for the day of the week. Optional. The default value is "EEEE" (complete day name).
Returns: (string) A string containing the day of the week.
secondsSince(cond, resetCond)
The duration in milliseconds that a condition has been true.
Parameters:
cond : (series bool) Condition to time.
resetCond : (series bool) When `true`, the duration resets.
Returns: The duration in seconds for which `cond` is continuously true.
timeFrom(from, qty, units)
Calculates a +/- time offset in variable units from the current bar's time or from the current time.
Parameters:
from : (series string) Starting time from where the offset is calculated: "bar" to start from the bar's starting time, "close" to start from the bar's closing time, "now" to start from the current time.
qty : (series int) The +/- qty of units of offset required. A "series float" can be used but it will be cast to a "series int".
units : (series string) String containing one of the seven allowed time units: "chart" (chart's timeframe), "seconds", "minutes", "hours", "days", "months", "years".
Returns: (int) The resultant time offset `from` the `qty` of time in the specified `units`.
formattedNoOfPeriods(ms, unit)
Converts a time value in ms to a quantity of time units.
Parameters:
ms : (series int) Value of time to be formatted.
unit : (series string) The target unit of time measurement. Options are "seconds", "minutes", "hours", "days", "weeks", "months". If not used one will be automatically assigned.
Returns: (string) A formatted string from the number of `ms` in the specified `unit` of time measurement
secondsToTfString(tfInSeconds, mult)
Convert an input time in seconds to target string TF in `timeframe.period` string format.
Parameters:
tfInSeconds : (simple int) a timeframe in seconds to convert to a string.
mult : (simple float) Multiple of `tfInSeconds` to be calculated. Optional. 1 (no multiplier) is default.
Returns: (string) The `tfInSeconds` in `timeframe.period` format usable with `request.security()`.
Realtime FootprintThe purpose of this script is to gain a better understanding of the order flow by the footprint. To that end, i have added unusual features in addition to the standard features.
I use "Real Time 5D Profile by LucF" main engine to create basic footprint(profile type) and added some popular features and my favorites.
This script can only be used in realtime, because tradingview doesn't provide historical Bid/Ask date.
Bid/Ask date used this script are up/down ticks.
This script can only be used by time based chart (1m, 5m , 60m and daily etc)
This script use many labels and these are limited max 500, so you can't display many bars.
If you want to display foot print bars longer, turn off the unused sub-display function.
Default setting is footprint is 25 labels, IB count is 1, COT high and Ratio high is 1, COT low and Ratio low is 1 and Delta Box Ratio Volume is 1 , total 29.
plus UA , IB stripes , ladder fading mark use several labels.
///////// General Setting ///////////
Resets on Volume / Range bar
: If you want to use simple time based Resets on, please set Total Volume is 0.
Your timeframe is always the first condition. So if you set Total Volume is 1000, both conditions(Volume >= 1000 and your timeframe start next bar) must be met. (that is, new footprint bar doesn't start at when total volume = exactly 1000).
Ticks per row and Maximum row of Bar
: 1 is minimum size(tick). "Maximum row of Bar" decide the number of rows used in one footprint. 1 row is created from 1 label, so you need to reduce this number to display many footprints (Max label is 500).
Volume Filter and For Calculation and Display
: "Volume Filter" decide minimum size of using volume for this script.
"For Calculation and Display" is used to convert volume to an integer.
This script only use integer to make profile look better (I contained Bid number and Ask number in one row( one label) to saving labels. This require to make no difference in width by the number of digits and this script corresponds integers from 0 to 3 digits).
ex) Symbol average volume size is from 0.0001 to 0.001. You decide only use Volume >= 0.0005 by "Volume Filter".
Next, you convert volume to integer, by setting "For Calculation and Display" is 1000 (0.0005 * 1000 = 5).
If 0.00052 → 5.2 → 5, 0.00058 → 5.8 → 6 (Decimal numbers are rounded off)
This integer is used to all calculation in this script.
//////// Main Display ///////
Footprint, Total, Row Delta, Diagonal Delta and Profile
: "Footprint" display Ask and Bid per row. "Total" display Ask + Bid per row.
"Row Delta" display Ask - Bid per row. "Diagonal Delta" display Ask(row N) - Bid(row N -1) per row.
Profile display Total Volume(Ask + Bid) per row by using Block. Profile Block coloring are decided by Row Delta value(default: positive Row Delta (Ask > Bid) is greenish colors and negative Row Delta (Ask < Bid) is reddish colors.)
Volume per Profile Block, Row Imbalance Ratio and Delta Bull/Bear/Neutral Colors
: "Volume per Profile Block" decide one block contain how many total volume.
ex) When you set 20, Total volume 70 display 3 block.
The maximum number of blocks that can be used per low is 20.
So if you set 20, Total volume 400 is 20 blocks. total volume 800 is 20 blocks too.
"Row Imbalance Ratio" decide block coloring. The row imbalance is that the difference between Ask and Bid (row delta) is large.
default is x3, x2 and x1. The larger the difference, the brighter the color.
ex) Ask 30 Bid 10 is light green. Ask 20 Bid 10 is green. Ask 11 Bid 10 is dark green.
Ask 0 Bid 1 is light red. Ask 1 Bid 2 is red. ask 30 Bid 59 is dark green.
Ask 10 Bid 10 is neutral color(gray)
profile coloring is reflected same row's other elements(Ask, Bid, Total and Delta) too.
It's because one label can only use one text color.
/////// Sub Display ///////
Delta, total and Commitment of Traders
: "Delta" is total Ask - total Bid in one footprint bar. Total is total Ask + total Bid in one footprint bar.
"Commitment of traders" is variation of "Delta". COT High is reset to 0 when current highest is touched. COT Low is opposite.
Basic concept of Delta is to compare price with Delta. Ordinary, when price move up, delta is positive. Price move down is negative delta.
This is because market orders move price and market orders are counted by Delta (although this description is not exactly correct).
But, sometimes prices do not move even though many market orders are putting pressure on price , or conversely, price move strongly without many market orders.
This is key point. Big player absorb market orders by iceberg order(Subdivide large orders and pretend to be small limit orders.
Small limit orders look weak in the order book, but they are added each time you fill, so they are more powerful than they look.), so price don't move.
On the other hand, when the price is moving easily, smart players may be aiming to attract and counterattack to a better price for them.
It's more of a sport than science, and there's always no right response. Pay attention to the relationship between price, volume and delta.
ex) If COT Low is large negative value, it means many sell market orders is coming, but iceberg order is absorbing their attack at limit order.
you should not do buy entry, only this clue. but this is one of the hints.
"Delta, Box Ratio and Total texts is contained same label and its color are "Delta" coloring. Positive Delta is Delta Bull color(green),Negative Delta is Delta Bear Color
and Delta = 0 is Neutral Color(gray). When Delta direction and price direction are opposite is Delta Divergence Color(yellow).
I didn't add the cumulative volume delta because I prefer to display the CVD line on the price chart rather than the number.
Box Ratio , Box Ratio Divisor and Heavy Box Ratio Ratio
: This is not ordinary footprint features, but I like this concept so I added.
Box Ratio by Richard W. Arms is simple but useful tool. calculation is "total volume (one bar) divided by Bar range (highest - lowest)."
When Bull and bear are fighting fiercely this number become large, and then important price move happen.
I made average BR from something like 5 SMA and if current BR exceeds average BR x (Heavy Box Ratio Ratio), BR box mark will be filled.
Box Ratio Divisor is used to good looking display(BR multiplied by Box Ratio Divisor is rounded off and displayed as an integer)
Diagonal Imbalance Count , D IB Mark and D IB Stripes
: Diagonal Imbalance is defined by "Diagonal Imbalance Ratio".
ex) You set 2. When Ask(row N) 30 Bid(row N -1)10, it's 30 > 10*2, so positive Diagonal Imbalance.
When Ask(row N) 4 Bid(row N -1)9, it's 4*2 < 9, so negative Diagonal Imbalance.
This calculation does not use equals to avoid Ask(row N) 0 Bid(row N -1)0 became Diagonal Imbalance.
Ask(row N) 0 Bid(row N -1)0, it's 0 = 0*2, not Diagonal Imbalance. Ask(row N) 10 Bid(row N -1)5, it's 10 = 5*2, not Diagonal Imbalance.
"D IB Mark" emphasize Ask or Bid number which is dominant side(Winner of Diagonal Imbalance calculation), by under line.
"Diagonal Imbalance Count" compare Ask side D IB Mark to Bid side D IB Mark in one footprint.
Coloring depend on which is more aggressive side (it has many IB Mark) and When Aggressive direction and price direction are opposite is Delta Divergence Color(yellow).
"D IB Stripes" is a function that further emphasizes with an arrow Mark, when a DIB mark is added on the same side for three consecutive row. Three consecutive arrow is added at third row.
Unfinished Auction, Ratio Bounds and Ladder fading Mark
: "Unfinished Auction" emphasize highest or lowest row which has both Ask and Bid, by Delta Divergence Color(yellow) XXXXXX mark.
Unfinished Auction sometimes has magnet effect, price may touch and breakout at UA side in the future.
This concept is famous as profit taking target than entry decision.
But, I'm interested in the case that Big player make fake breakout at UA side and trapped retail traders, and then do reversal with retail traders stop-loss hunt.
Anyway, it's not stand alone signal.
"Ratio Bounds" gauge decrease of pressure at extreme price. Ratio Bounds High is number which second highest ask is divided by highest ask.
Ratio Bounds Low is number which second lowest bid is divided by lowest bid. The larger the number, the less momentum the price has.
ex)first footprint bar has Ratio Bounds Low 2, second footprint bar has RBL 4, third footprint bar has RBL 20.
This indicates that the bear's power is gradually diminishing.
"Ladder fading mark" emphasizes the decrease of the value in 3 consecutive row at extreme price. I added two type Marks.
Ask/Bid type(triangle Mark) is Ask/Bid values are decreasing of three consecutive row at extreme price.
Row Imbalance type(Diamond Mark) are row Imbalance values are decreasing of three consecutive row at extreme price.
ex)Third lowest Bid 40, second lowest Bid 10 and lowest Bid 5 have triangle up Mark. That is bear's power is gradually diminishing.
(This Mark only check Bid value at lowest price and Ask value at highest price).
Third highest row delta + 60, second highest row delta + 5, highest delta - 20 have diamond Mark. That is Bull's power is gradually diminishing.
Sub display use Delta colors at bottom of Sub display section.
////// Candle & POC /////////
candle and POC
: Ordinary, "POC" Point of Control is row of largest total volume, but this script'POC is volume weighted average.
This is because the regular POC was visually displayed by the profile ,and I was influenced LucF's ideas.
POC coloring is decided in relation to the previous POC. When current POC is higher than previous POC, color is UP Bar Color(green).
In the opposite case, Down Bar color is used.
POC Divergence Color is used when Current POC is up but current bar close is lower than open (Down price Bar),or in the opposite case.
POC coloring has option also highlight background by Delta Divergence Color(yellow). but bg color is displayed at your time frame current price bar not current footprint bar.
The basic explanation is over.
I add some image to promote understanding basic ideas.
30min_breakEnglish:
It is an indicator that displays the high and low prices as of 30 minutes before the event,
and when you break it, you can see it with a balloon.
The high and low lines at 30 minutes before the front are shown as candidates for support lines and resistance lines.
Used in the minute chart
Japanese:
前場 30分時点の 高値・安値の線を表示し、そこをBreakしたら吹き出しでわかるようにしたインジケーターです
前場 30分時点の 高値安値の線を支持線・抵抗線の候補として図示します。
分足のチャートで利用します
30min_breakEnglish:
It is an indicator that displays the high and low prices as of 30 minutes before the event,
and when you break it, you can see it with a balloon.
The high and low lines at 30 minutes before the front are shown as candidates for support lines and resistance lines.
Used in the minute chart
Japanese:
前場 30分時点の 高値・安値の線を表示し、そこをBreakしたら吹き出しでわかるようにしたインジケーターです
前場 30分時点の 高値安値の線を支持線・抵抗線の候補として図示します。
分足のチャートで利用します
Timeframe Time of Day Buying and Selling StrategyThis strategy allows you to back test longing or shorting or do nothing during time increments of 30 minutes. The price trends in one direction every 30 minutes and this strategy allows you to test various 30 minute time frames across a range of dates to capitalize on this.
Make sure you are in the 30 minute time frame while viewing the performance and trade history.
McClellan Oscillator for DAX (GER30) [aftabmk modified]About McClellan Oscillator
Developed by Sherman and Marian McClellan, the McClellan Oscillator is a breadth indicator derived from Net Advances, the number of advancing issues less the number of declining issues. Subtracting the 39-day exponential moving average of Net Advances from the 19-day exponential moving average of Net Advances forms the oscillator.
As the formula reveals, the McClellan Oscillator is a momentum indicator that works similar to MACD .
McClellan Oscillator signals can be generated with breadth thrusts, centerline crossovers, overall levels and divergences.
About my version
This version here is a modification, though:
- It can only be used on the DAX index (DAX 30 or GER 30)
- It only considers the DAX 30 stocks
- The data window will provide a summary about rising and declining stocks
- The data window will output the last change for each of the 30 stocks
BUG
I am only publishing this version because I am not sure if my current version is saved when I leave tradingview.com without publishing the script.
This version still contains a bug - the if/else clauses do not correctly recognize declining stocks. So the oscillator should not be used as it is.
Working on it these days. Feel free to provide feedback!
Stuff I am working on
- Coloring the area green/red according to the value
- Fixing this bug/making this script more efficient
DISCLAIMER
This script was mainly written for educational purposes (training myself how to write custom indicatotors).
As you can see, the code is really messy.
Credits
Based on the simple version of aftabmk
You can find the original version by searching for McClellan Oscillator for nifty 50.
Gann RetracementThe indicator is based on W. D. Gann's method of retracement studies. Gann looked at stock retracement action in terms of Halves (1/2), Thirds (1/3, 2/3), Fifths (1/5, 2/5, 3/5, and 4/5) and more importantly the Eighths (1/8, 2/8, 3/8, 4/8, 5/8, 6/8, and 7/8). Needless to say, {2, 3, 5, 8} are the only Fibonacci numbers between 1 to 10. These ratios can easily be visualized in the form of division of a Circle as follows :
Divide the circle in 12 equal parts of 30 degree each to produce the Thirds :
30 x 4 = 120 is 1/3 of 360
30 x 8 = 240 is 2/3 of 360
The 30 degree retracement captures fundamental geometric shapes like a regular Triangle (120-240-360), a Square (90-180-270-360), and a regular Hexagon (60-120-180-240-300-360) inscribed inside of the circle.
Now, divide the circle in 10 equal parts of 36 degree each to produce the Fifths :
36 x 2 = 72 is 1/5 of 360
36 x 4 = 144 is 2/5 of 360
36 x 6 = 216 is 3/5 of 360
36 x 8 = 288 is 4/5 of 360
where, (72-144-216-288-360) is a regular Pentagon.
Finally, divide the circle in 8 equal parts of 45 degree each to produce the Eighths :
45 x 1 = 45 is 1/8 of 360
45 x 2 = 90 is 2/8 of 360
45 x 3 = 135 is 3/8 of 360
45 x 4 = 180 is 4/8 of 360
45 x 5 = 225 is 5/8 of 360
45 x 6 = 270 is 6/8 of 360
45 x 7 = 315 is 7/8 of 360
where, (45-90-135-180-225-270-315-360) is a regular Octagon.
How to Use this indicator ?
The indicator generates Gann retracement levels between any two significant price points, such as a high and a low.
Input :
Swing High (significant high price point, such as a top)
Swing Low (significant low price point, such as a bottom)
Degree (degree of retracement)
Output :
Gann retracement levels (color coded as follows) :
Swing High and Swing Low (BLUE)
50% retracement (ORANGE)
Retracements between Swing Low and 50% level (RED)
Retracements between 50% level and Swing High (LIME)
Bollinger Bands %B + ATR This indicator is best suitable for the 30-minutes interval OIL charts, due to ATR accuracy.
BB%B is great for showing oversold/overbought market conditions and offers excellent entry/exit opportunities for Day Trading (30 minutes chart), as well as reliable convergence/divergence patterns. ATR is conveniently combined and shows potential market volatility levels for the day when used in 30-minutes charts, thus demarcating your day trade exit point.
To use the ATR on this indicator: Just read the ATR value of the lowest (for a new bull trend) or the highest (for a new bear trend) candlestick of the newly formed trend leg. Let's suppose the ATR reads 0.2891, then you project a move of 2.891 points towards the given trend direction using the ruler tool (30-minutes charts). That's all, and there you have your take profit target!
Good Luck!!!
ADX strategy (considering ADX and +DI only )I have been checking the strategies on ADX indicator.
I have found that +DI crossing above ADX line under threshold 30 and exit on crossdown when ADX above 30 has better results than just following crossovers of +DI and -DI , ADX crossing above 30 .
BUY Rule
========
fast ema is above slow ema (default 13 and 55 , you can change these values in settings)
+DI cross above ADX well beloe threshold level (default 30)
Exit reule
========
when +DI cross down ADX , well above on threshold level
Stop Loss
=========
Default is set to 8%
Take a look and let me know how your symbol works with this strategy
Note : Bar color changes to yellow when the BUY condition is met.
Bar color and Background color shows to blue --- if Long position is active
fast ema and long ema doesnt print on the chart -- please add manually to the chart
Warning : for the use of educational purposes only
EulerMethod: DeltaEN
Shows the Integral Volume Delta (IVD)
It is a detailed OBV. Each bar sums up the volume for bars of a shorter timeframe.
For example, inside a 1M bar, every 12h bar is added up, and inside a 1h bar, every 1min bar is added. Thus, a conditional volume delta inside the bar is obtained.
The indicator for each bar shows the volume of purchases (positive), sales (negative) and the difference — IVD
The delta histogram is thicker than the volume histograms
Settings detalisation
M — 6 hours, 12 hours and 1 day for the M timeframe (720 by default)
W — 4 hours, 6 hours and 12 hours for the W timeframe (240 by default)
D — 30 minutes, 1 hour and 2 hours for the D timeframe (60 by default)
H — 1 minute, 5 minutes and 15 minutes for timeframes [1h, D) (default is 1)
For timeframes of 15m and less, the calculation is carried out by minute bars
VSA mode
The classic OBV adds volume to the cumulative sum under the condition Сlose (n) > Close (n-1) and subtracts it under the condition Close (n) < Close (n-1)
When VSA mode is disabled, all volumes are summed up under these conditions.
When the VSA approximation is turned on, the volume per bar of detail is divided by the factor (Close - Low) / (High - Low)
That is, it takes into account the spread per bar and closing relative to the spread. VSA is enabled by default
A/D mode
Shows the cumulative Accumulation / Distribution Index
The delta of the detail bar is multiplied by (High + Low + Close) / 3 bars, the result is added to the cumulative sum
No additional price conversions required due to integral summation
Index line view is customizable
EM Delta does not receive intermediate values in real time.
To see the result, wait until the bar closes or switch to a smaller timeframe
RU
Показывает Интегральную Дельту Объёма (ИДО)
Представляет собой детализированный OBV. В каждом баре суммируется объём за бары меньшего таймфрейма.
Например, внутри 1М-бара суммируется каждый 12h-бар, а внутри 1h — каждый 1m-бар. Таким образом получается условная дельта объёма внутри бара
Индикатор на каждый бар показывает объём покупок (положительный), объём продаж (отрицательный) и разницу — ИДО
Гистограмма дельты толще гистограмм объёмов
Настройки детализации внутри бара
M — 6 часов, 12 часов и 1 день для таймфрейма M (по-умолчанию 720)
W — 4 часа, 6 часов и 12 часов для таймфрейма W (по-умолчанию 240)
D — 30 минут, 1 час и 2 часа для таймфрейма D (по-умолчанию 60)
H — 1 минута, 5 минут и 15 минут для таймфреймов [1h, D) (по-умолчанию 1)
Для таймфреймов 15m и меньше расчёт ведётся по минутным барам
Режим VSA
Классический OBV прибавляет объём к кумулятивной сумме при условии Сlose(n) > Close(n-1) и отнимает при условии Close(n) < Close(n-1)
При отключении режима VSA все объёмы суммируются по этим условиям
При включённой VSA-аппроксимации объём за бар детализации делится по фактору (Close - Low) / (High - Low)
То есть учитывает спред за бар и закрытие относительно спреда. По-умолчанию режим VSA включен
Режим A/D
Показывает кумулятивный индекс Накопления/Распределения
Дельта бара детализации умножается на (High + Low + Close) / 3 бара, результат прибавляется к кумулятивной сумме
Дополнительные преобразования цены не требуются ввиду интегрального суммирования
Вид линии индекса настраивается
EM Delta не получает промежуточные значения в реальном времени.
Чтобы увидеть результат, дождитесь закрытия бара или перейдите на меньший таймфрейм
Crypto Trading Hours UTC based on Berlin time (UTC +2)Although crypto markets trade 24/7, there are spikes in volume according to the general hours at which different parts of the world do the majority of their trading.
This Script highlights the US, European and Asian markets when they are most active. The normal market hours are always from 08:00 to 16:30 local time.
US market opens at 8:00 Silicon Valley local time, and closes at 16:30 New York local time.
European market opens at 8:00 London local time, and closes at 16:30 Frankfurt local time.
Asian market opens at 8:00 Hong Kong local time, and closes at 16:30 Sydney local time.
Supertrend MTF LAG ISSUEThis script based on
we all use Super trend but it main issue is the lag as it buy too late or sell too late
using Deavaet study of Heat map MTF we can do a little trick
if you look on his study you can see that major signal for example will happen in the time frame before it happen at larger time frame
so in this example if signal at MTF 30 min and signal at MTF 60 min happen at the same time at 2 hours or 4 hours candles then this signal are more likely to be true then random signal at each time frame specific.
since we use shorter time frame on larger time frame we can remove the lag issue that make supertrend not so effective
In this example I set the signal to be MTF 30 +60 om 2 hour TF , can be good also for 4 hour candles..
So you get the signal to close inside the larger candle
now if you want to make on even shorter TF then change the code to 15 and 30 MTF on candles on 1 hour
or 1 and 5 min on 30 min or 15 min
Panchang Time//This indicator is required in NimblrTA and can be used to define timeslots for the trend confirmation
study("Panchang Time", overlay=true)
timeinrange(res, sess) => time(res, sess) != 0
premarket = #C0C0C0
regular = #0000FF
regularslot2 = #00CCFF
postmarket = #5000FF
notrading = na
sessioncolor = timeinrange("30", "0915-0930") ? premarket : timeinrange("30", "0915-0930") ? regular : timeinrange("30", "0931-1200") ? regularslot2 : timeinrange("30", "1201-1305") ? postmarket : notrading
bgcolor(sessioncolor, transp=90)
extended session - Regular Opening-Range- JayyOpening Range and some other scripts updated to plot correctly (see comments below.) There are three variations of the fibonacci expansion beyond the opening range and retracements within the opening range of the US Market session - I have not put in the script for the other markets yet.
The three scripts have different uses and strengths:
The extended session script (with the script here below) will plot the opening range whether you are using the extended session or the regular session. (that is to say whether "ext" in the lower right hand corner is highlighted or not.). While in the extended session the opening range has some plotting issues with periods like 13 minutes or any period that is not divisible into 330 mins with a round number outcome (eg 330/60 =5.5. Therefore an hour long opening range has problems in the extended session.
The pre session script is only for the premarket. You can select any opening range period you like. I have set the opening range to be the full premarket session. If you select a different session you will have to unselect "pre open to 9:30 EST for Opening Range?" in the format section. The script defaults to 15 minutes in the "period Of Pre Opening Range?". To go back to the 4 am to 9:30 pre opening range select "pre open to 9:30 EST for Opening Range?" there is no automatic 330 minute selection.
The past days offset script only works in 5 min or 15 minute period. It will show the opening range from up to 20 days past over the current days price action. Use this for the regular session only. 0 shows the current day's opening range. Use the positive integers for number of days back ie 1, 2, 3 etc not -1, -2, -3 etc. The script is preprogrammed to use the current day (0).
Scripts updated to plot correctly: One thing they all have in common is a way of they deal with a somewhat random problem that shifts the plots 4 hours in one direction or the other ie the plot started at 9:30 EST or 1:30PM EST. This issue started to occur approximately June 22, 2015 and impacts any script that tried to use "session" times to manage a plot in my scripts. The issue now seems to have been resolved during this past week.
Just in case the problem reoccurs I have added a "Switch session plot?" to each script. If the plot looks funny check or uncheck the "Switch session plot?" and see the difference. Of course if a new issue crops up it will likely require a different fix.
I have updated all of the scripts shown on this chart. If you are using a script of mine that suffers from the compiler issue then you will find an update on this chart. You can get any and all of the scripts by clicking on the small sideways wishbone on the left middle of the chart. You will see a dialogue box. Then click "make it mine". This will import all of the scripts to your computer and you can play around with them all to decide what you want and what you don't want. This is the easiest way to get all of the scripts in one fell swoop. It is also the easiest way for me to make all of the scripts available. I do not have all of the plots visible since it is too messy and one of the scripts (pre OR) is only for the regular session. To view the scripts click on the blue eye to the right of the script title to show it on this script. If you can only use the regular session. The scripts will all (with the exception of the pre OR) work fine.
If for any reason this script seems flakey refresh the page r try a slightly different period. I have noticed that sometimes randomly the script loves to return to the 5 min OR. This is a very new issue transient issue. As always if you see an issue please let me know.
Cheers Jayy
Dynamic Equity Allocation Model"Cash is Trash"? Not Always. Here's Why Science Beats Guesswork.
Every retail trader knows the frustration: you draw support and resistance lines, you spot patterns, you follow market gurus on social media—and still, when the next bear market hits, your portfolio bleeds red. Meanwhile, institutional investors seem to navigate market turbulence with ease, preserving capital when markets crash and participating when they rally. What's their secret?
The answer isn't insider information or access to exotic derivatives. It's systematic, scientifically validated decision-making. While most retail traders rely on subjective chart analysis and emotional reactions, professional portfolio managers use quantitative models that remove emotion from the equation and process multiple streams of market information simultaneously.
This document presents exactly such a system—not a proprietary black box available only to hedge funds, but a fully transparent, academically grounded framework that any serious investor can understand and apply. The Dynamic Equity Allocation Model (DEAM) synthesizes decades of financial research from Nobel laureates and leading academics into a practical tool for tactical asset allocation.
Stop drawing colorful lines on your chart and start thinking like a quant. This isn't about predicting where the market goes next week—it's about systematically adjusting your risk exposure based on what the data actually tells you. When valuations scream danger, when volatility spikes, when credit markets freeze, when multiple warning signals align—that's when cash isn't trash. That's when cash saves your portfolio.
The irony of "cash is trash" rhetoric is that it ignores timing. Yes, being 100% cash for decades would be disastrous. But being 100% equities through every crisis is equally foolish. The sophisticated approach is dynamic: aggressive when conditions favor risk-taking, defensive when they don't. This model shows you how to make that decision systematically, not emotionally.
Whether you're managing your own retirement portfolio or seeking to understand how institutional allocation strategies work, this comprehensive analysis provides the theoretical foundation, mathematical implementation, and practical guidance to elevate your investment approach from amateur to professional.
The choice is yours: keep hoping your chart patterns work out, or start using the same quantitative methods that professionals rely on. The tools are here. The research is cited. The methodology is explained. All you need to do is read, understand, and apply.
The Dynamic Equity Allocation Model (DEAM) is a quantitative framework for systematic allocation between equities and cash, grounded in modern portfolio theory and empirical market research. The model integrates five scientifically validated dimensions of market analysis—market regime, risk metrics, valuation, sentiment, and macroeconomic conditions—to generate dynamic allocation recommendations ranging from 0% to 100% equity exposure. This work documents the theoretical foundations, mathematical implementation, and practical application of this multi-factor approach.
1. Introduction and Theoretical Background
1.1 The Limitations of Static Portfolio Allocation
Traditional portfolio theory, as formulated by Markowitz (1952) in his seminal work "Portfolio Selection," assumes an optimal static allocation where investors distribute their wealth across asset classes according to their risk aversion. This approach rests on the assumption that returns and risks remain constant over time. However, empirical research demonstrates that this assumption does not hold in reality. Fama and French (1989) showed that expected returns vary over time and correlate with macroeconomic variables such as the spread between long-term and short-term interest rates. Campbell and Shiller (1988) demonstrated that the price-earnings ratio possesses predictive power for future stock returns, providing a foundation for dynamic allocation strategies.
The academic literature on tactical asset allocation has evolved considerably over recent decades. Ilmanen (2011) argues in "Expected Returns" that investors can improve their risk-adjusted returns by considering valuation levels, business cycles, and market sentiment. The Dynamic Equity Allocation Model presented here builds on this research tradition and operationalizes these insights into a practically applicable allocation framework.
1.2 Multi-Factor Approaches in Asset Allocation
Modern financial research has shown that different factors capture distinct aspects of market dynamics and together provide a more robust picture of market conditions than individual indicators. Ross (1976) developed the Arbitrage Pricing Theory, a model that employs multiple factors to explain security returns. Following this multi-factor philosophy, DEAM integrates five complementary analytical dimensions, each tapping different information sources and collectively enabling comprehensive market understanding.
2. Data Foundation and Data Quality
2.1 Data Sources Used
The model draws its data exclusively from publicly available market data via the TradingView platform. This transparency and accessibility is a significant advantage over proprietary models that rely on non-public data. The data foundation encompasses several categories of market information, each capturing specific aspects of market dynamics.
First, price data for the S&P 500 Index is obtained through the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (ticker: SPY). The use of a highly liquid ETF instead of the index itself has practical reasons, as ETF data is available in real-time and reflects actual tradability. In addition to closing prices, high, low, and volume data are captured, which are required for calculating advanced volatility measures.
Fundamental corporate metrics are retrieved via TradingView's Financial Data API. These include earnings per share, price-to-earnings ratio, return on equity, debt-to-equity ratio, dividend yield, and share buyback yield. Cochrane (2011) emphasizes in "Presidential Address: Discount Rates" the central importance of valuation metrics for forecasting future returns, making these fundamental data a cornerstone of the model.
Volatility indicators are represented by the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) and related metrics. The VIX, often referred to as the market's "fear gauge," measures the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options and serves as a proxy for market participants' risk perception. Whaley (2000) describes in "The Investor Fear Gauge" the construction and interpretation of the VIX and its use as a sentiment indicator.
Macroeconomic data includes yield curve information through US Treasury bonds of various maturities and credit risk premiums through the spread between high-yield bonds and risk-free government bonds. These variables capture the macroeconomic conditions and financing conditions relevant for equity valuation. Estrella and Hardouvelis (1991) showed that the shape of the yield curve has predictive power for future economic activity, justifying the inclusion of these data.
2.2 Handling Missing Data
A practical problem when working with financial data is dealing with missing or unavailable values. The model implements a fallback system where a plausible historical average value is stored for each fundamental metric. When current data is unavailable for a specific point in time, this fallback value is used. This approach ensures that the model remains functional even during temporary data outages and avoids systematic biases from missing data. The use of average values as fallback is conservative, as it generates neither overly optimistic nor pessimistic signals.
3. Component 1: Market Regime Detection
3.1 The Concept of Market Regimes
The idea that financial markets exist in different "regimes" or states that differ in their statistical properties has a long tradition in financial science. Hamilton (1989) developed regime-switching models that allow distinguishing between different market states with different return and volatility characteristics. The practical application of this theory consists of identifying the current market state and adjusting portfolio allocation accordingly.
DEAM classifies market regimes using a scoring system that considers three main dimensions: trend strength, volatility level, and drawdown depth. This multidimensional view is more robust than focusing on individual indicators, as it captures various facets of market dynamics. Classification occurs into six distinct regimes: Strong Bull, Bull Market, Neutral, Correction, Bear Market, and Crisis.
3.2 Trend Analysis Through Moving Averages
Moving averages are among the oldest and most widely used technical indicators and have also received attention in academic literature. Brock, Lakonishok, and LeBaron (1992) examined in "Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns" the profitability of trading rules based on moving averages and found evidence for their predictive power, although later studies questioned the robustness of these results when considering transaction costs.
The model calculates three moving averages with different time windows: a 20-day average (approximately one trading month), a 50-day average (approximately one quarter), and a 200-day average (approximately one trading year). The relationship of the current price to these averages and the relationship of the averages to each other provide information about trend strength and direction. When the price trades above all three averages and the short-term average is above the long-term, this indicates an established uptrend. The model assigns points based on these constellations, with longer-term trends weighted more heavily as they are considered more persistent.
3.3 Volatility Regimes
Volatility, understood as the standard deviation of returns, is a central concept of financial theory and serves as the primary risk measure. However, research has shown that volatility is not constant but changes over time and occurs in clusters—a phenomenon first documented by Mandelbrot (1963) and later formalized through ARCH and GARCH models (Engle, 1982; Bollerslev, 1986).
DEAM calculates volatility not only through the classic method of return standard deviation but also uses more advanced estimators such as the Parkinson estimator and the Garman-Klass estimator. These methods utilize intraday information (high and low prices) and are more efficient than simple close-to-close volatility estimators. The Parkinson estimator (Parkinson, 1980) uses the range between high and low of a trading day and is based on the recognition that this information reveals more about true volatility than just the closing price difference. The Garman-Klass estimator (Garman and Klass, 1980) extends this approach by additionally considering opening and closing prices.
The calculated volatility is annualized by multiplying it by the square root of 252 (the average number of trading days per year), enabling standardized comparability. The model compares current volatility with the VIX, the implied volatility from option prices. A low VIX (below 15) signals market comfort and increases the regime score, while a high VIX (above 35) indicates market stress and reduces the score. This interpretation follows the empirical observation that elevated volatility is typically associated with falling markets (Schwert, 1989).
3.4 Drawdown Analysis
A drawdown refers to the percentage decline from the highest point (peak) to the lowest point (trough) during a specific period. This metric is psychologically significant for investors as it represents the maximum loss experienced. Calmar (1991) developed the Calmar Ratio, which relates return to maximum drawdown, underscoring the practical relevance of this metric.
The model calculates current drawdown as the percentage distance from the highest price of the last 252 trading days (one year). A drawdown below 3% is considered negligible and maximally increases the regime score. As drawdown increases, the score decreases progressively, with drawdowns above 20% classified as severe and indicating a crisis or bear market regime. These thresholds are empirically motivated by historical market cycles, in which corrections typically encompassed 5-10% drawdowns, bear markets 20-30%, and crises over 30%.
3.5 Regime Classification
Final regime classification occurs through aggregation of scores from trend (40% weight), volatility (30%), and drawdown (30%). The higher weighting of trend reflects the empirical observation that trend-following strategies have historically delivered robust results (Moskowitz, Ooi, and Pedersen, 2012). A total score above 80 signals a strong bull market with established uptrend, low volatility, and minimal losses. At a score below 10, a crisis situation exists requiring defensive positioning. The six regime categories enable a differentiated allocation strategy that not only distinguishes binarily between bullish and bearish but allows gradual gradations.
4. Component 2: Risk-Based Allocation
4.1 Volatility Targeting as Risk Management Approach
The concept of volatility targeting is based on the idea that investors should maximize not returns but risk-adjusted returns. Sharpe (1966, 1994) defined with the Sharpe Ratio the fundamental concept of return per unit of risk, measured as volatility. Volatility targeting goes a step further and adjusts portfolio allocation to achieve constant target volatility. This means that in times of low market volatility, equity allocation is increased, and in times of high volatility, it is reduced.
Moreira and Muir (2017) showed in "Volatility-Managed Portfolios" that strategies that adjust their exposure based on volatility forecasts achieve higher Sharpe Ratios than passive buy-and-hold strategies. DEAM implements this principle by defining a target portfolio volatility (default 12% annualized) and adjusting equity allocation to achieve it. The mathematical foundation is simple: if market volatility is 20% and target volatility is 12%, equity allocation should be 60% (12/20 = 0.6), with the remaining 40% held in cash with zero volatility.
4.2 Market Volatility Calculation
Estimating current market volatility is central to the risk-based allocation approach. The model uses several volatility estimators in parallel and selects the higher value between traditional close-to-close volatility and the Parkinson estimator. This conservative choice ensures the model does not underestimate true volatility, which could lead to excessive risk exposure.
Traditional volatility calculation uses logarithmic returns, as these have mathematically advantageous properties (additive linkage over multiple periods). The logarithmic return is calculated as ln(P_t / P_{t-1}), where P_t is the price at time t. The standard deviation of these returns over a rolling 20-trading-day window is then multiplied by √252 to obtain annualized volatility. This annualization is based on the assumption of independently identically distributed returns, which is an idealization but widely accepted in practice.
The Parkinson estimator uses additional information from the trading range (High minus Low) of each day. The formula is: σ_P = (1/√(4ln2)) × √(1/n × Σln²(H_i/L_i)) × √252, where H_i and L_i are high and low prices. Under ideal conditions, this estimator is approximately five times more efficient than the close-to-close estimator (Parkinson, 1980), as it uses more information per observation.
4.3 Drawdown-Based Position Size Adjustment
In addition to volatility targeting, the model implements drawdown-based risk control. The logic is that deep market declines often signal further losses and therefore justify exposure reduction. This behavior corresponds with the concept of path-dependent risk tolerance: investors who have already suffered losses are typically less willing to take additional risk (Kahneman and Tversky, 1979).
The model defines a maximum portfolio drawdown as a target parameter (default 15%). Since portfolio volatility and portfolio drawdown are proportional to equity allocation (assuming cash has neither volatility nor drawdown), allocation-based control is possible. For example, if the market exhibits a 25% drawdown and target portfolio drawdown is 15%, equity allocation should be at most 60% (15/25).
4.4 Dynamic Risk Adjustment
An advanced feature of DEAM is dynamic adjustment of risk-based allocation through a feedback mechanism. The model continuously estimates what actual portfolio volatility and portfolio drawdown would result at the current allocation. If risk utilization (ratio of actual to target risk) exceeds 1.0, allocation is reduced by an adjustment factor that grows exponentially with overutilization. This implements a form of dynamic feedback that avoids overexposure.
Mathematically, a risk adjustment factor r_adjust is calculated: if risk utilization u > 1, then r_adjust = exp(-0.5 × (u - 1)). This exponential function ensures that moderate overutilization is gently corrected, while strong overutilization triggers drastic reductions. The factor 0.5 in the exponent was empirically calibrated to achieve a balanced ratio between sensitivity and stability.
5. Component 3: Valuation Analysis
5.1 Theoretical Foundations of Fundamental Valuation
DEAM's valuation component is based on the fundamental premise that the intrinsic value of a security is determined by its future cash flows and that deviations between market price and intrinsic value are eventually corrected. Graham and Dodd (1934) established in "Security Analysis" the basic principles of fundamental analysis that remain relevant today. Translated into modern portfolio context, this means that markets with high valuation metrics (high price-earnings ratios) should have lower expected returns than cheaply valued markets.
Campbell and Shiller (1988) developed the Cyclically Adjusted P/E Ratio (CAPE), which smooths earnings over a full business cycle. Their empirical analysis showed that this ratio has significant predictive power for 10-year returns. Asness, Moskowitz, and Pedersen (2013) demonstrated in "Value and Momentum Everywhere" that value effects exist not only in individual stocks but also in asset classes and markets.
5.2 Equity Risk Premium as Central Valuation Metric
The Equity Risk Premium (ERP) is defined as the expected excess return of stocks over risk-free government bonds. It is the theoretical heart of valuation analysis, as it represents the compensation investors demand for bearing equity risk. Damodaran (2012) discusses in "Equity Risk Premiums: Determinants, Estimation and Implications" various methods for ERP estimation.
DEAM calculates ERP not through a single method but combines four complementary approaches with different weights. This multi-method strategy increases estimation robustness and avoids dependence on single, potentially erroneous inputs.
The first method (35% weight) uses earnings yield, calculated as 1/P/E or directly from operating earnings data, and subtracts the 10-year Treasury yield. This method follows Fed Model logic (Yardeni, 2003), although this model has theoretical weaknesses as it does not consistently treat inflation (Asness, 2003).
The second method (30% weight) extends earnings yield by share buyback yield. Share buybacks are a form of capital return to shareholders and increase value per share. Boudoukh et al. (2007) showed in "The Total Shareholder Yield" that the sum of dividend yield and buyback yield is a better predictor of future returns than dividend yield alone.
The third method (20% weight) implements the Gordon Growth Model (Gordon, 1962), which models stock value as the sum of discounted future dividends. Under constant growth g assumption: Expected Return = Dividend Yield + g. The model estimates sustainable growth as g = ROE × (1 - Payout Ratio), where ROE is return on equity and payout ratio is the ratio of dividends to earnings. This formula follows from equity theory: unretained earnings are reinvested at ROE and generate additional earnings growth.
The fourth method (15% weight) combines total shareholder yield (Dividend + Buybacks) with implied growth derived from revenue growth. This method considers that companies with strong revenue growth should generate higher future earnings, even if current valuations do not yet fully reflect this.
The final ERP is the weighted average of these four methods. A high ERP (above 4%) signals attractive valuations and increases the valuation score to 95 out of 100 possible points. A negative ERP, where stocks have lower expected returns than bonds, results in a minimal score of 10.
5.3 Quality Adjustments to Valuation
Valuation metrics alone can be misleading if not interpreted in the context of company quality. A company with a low P/E may be cheap or fundamentally problematic. The model therefore implements quality adjustments based on growth, profitability, and capital structure.
Revenue growth above 10% annually adds 10 points to the valuation score, moderate growth above 5% adds 5 points. This adjustment reflects that growth has independent value (Modigliani and Miller, 1961, extended by later growth theory). Net margin above 15% signals pricing power and operational efficiency and increases the score by 5 points, while low margins below 8% indicate competitive pressure and subtract 5 points.
Return on equity (ROE) above 20% characterizes outstanding capital efficiency and increases the score by 5 points. Piotroski (2000) showed in "Value Investing: The Use of Historical Financial Statement Information" that fundamental quality signals such as high ROE can improve the performance of value strategies.
Capital structure is evaluated through the debt-to-equity ratio. A conservative ratio below 1.0 multiplies the valuation score by 1.2, while high leverage above 2.0 applies a multiplier of 0.8. This adjustment reflects that high debt constrains financial flexibility and can become problematic in crisis times (Korteweg, 2010).
6. Component 4: Sentiment Analysis
6.1 The Role of Sentiment in Financial Markets
Investor sentiment, defined as the collective psychological attitude of market participants, influences asset prices independently of fundamental data. Baker and Wurgler (2006, 2007) developed a sentiment index and showed that periods of high sentiment are followed by overvaluations that later correct. This insight justifies integrating a sentiment component into allocation decisions.
Sentiment is difficult to measure directly but can be proxied through market indicators. The VIX is the most widely used sentiment indicator, as it aggregates implied volatility from option prices. High VIX values reflect elevated uncertainty and risk aversion, while low values signal market comfort. Whaley (2009) refers to the VIX as the "Investor Fear Gauge" and documents its role as a contrarian indicator: extremely high values typically occur at market bottoms, while low values occur at tops.
6.2 VIX-Based Sentiment Assessment
DEAM uses statistical normalization of the VIX by calculating the Z-score: z = (VIX_current - VIX_average) / VIX_standard_deviation. The Z-score indicates how many standard deviations the current VIX is from the historical average. This approach is more robust than absolute thresholds, as it adapts to the average volatility level, which can vary over longer periods.
A Z-score below -1.5 (VIX is 1.5 standard deviations below average) signals exceptionally low risk perception and adds 40 points to the sentiment score. This may seem counterintuitive—shouldn't low fear be bullish? However, the logic follows the contrarian principle: when no one is afraid, everyone is already invested, and there is limited further upside potential (Zweig, 1973). Conversely, a Z-score above 1.5 (extreme fear) adds -40 points, reflecting market panic but simultaneously suggesting potential buying opportunities.
6.3 VIX Term Structure as Sentiment Signal
The VIX term structure provides additional sentiment information. Normally, the VIX trades in contango, meaning longer-term VIX futures have higher prices than short-term. This reflects that short-term volatility is currently known, while long-term volatility is more uncertain and carries a risk premium. The model compares the VIX with VIX9D (9-day volatility) and identifies backwardation (VIX > 1.05 × VIX9D) and steep backwardation (VIX > 1.15 × VIX9D).
Backwardation occurs when short-term implied volatility is higher than longer-term, which typically happens during market stress. Investors anticipate immediate turbulence but expect calming. Psychologically, this reflects acute fear. The model subtracts 15 points for backwardation and 30 for steep backwardation, as these constellations signal elevated risk. Simon and Wiggins (2001) analyzed the VIX futures curve and showed that backwardation is associated with market declines.
6.4 Safe-Haven Flows
During crisis times, investors flee from risky assets into safe havens: gold, US dollar, and Japanese yen. This "flight to quality" is a sentiment signal. The model calculates the performance of these assets relative to stocks over the last 20 trading days. When gold or the dollar strongly rise while stocks fall, this indicates elevated risk aversion.
The safe-haven component is calculated as the difference between safe-haven performance and stock performance. Positive values (safe havens outperform) subtract up to 20 points from the sentiment score, negative values (stocks outperform) add up to 10 points. The asymmetric treatment (larger deduction for risk-off than bonus for risk-on) reflects that risk-off movements are typically sharper and more informative than risk-on phases.
Baur and Lucey (2010) examined safe-haven properties of gold and showed that gold indeed exhibits negative correlation with stocks during extreme market movements, confirming its role as crisis protection.
7. Component 5: Macroeconomic Analysis
7.1 The Yield Curve as Economic Indicator
The yield curve, represented as yields of government bonds of various maturities, contains aggregated expectations about future interest rates, inflation, and economic growth. The slope of the yield curve has remarkable predictive power for recessions. Estrella and Mishkin (1998) showed that an inverted yield curve (short-term rates higher than long-term) predicts recessions with high reliability. This is because inverted curves reflect restrictive monetary policy: the central bank raises short-term rates to combat inflation, dampening economic activity.
DEAM calculates two spread measures: the 2-year-minus-10-year spread and the 3-month-minus-10-year spread. A steep, positive curve (spreads above 1.5% and 2% respectively) signals healthy growth expectations and generates the maximum yield curve score of 40 points. A flat curve (spreads near zero) reduces the score to 20 points. An inverted curve (negative spreads) is particularly alarming and results in only 10 points.
The choice of two different spreads increases analysis robustness. The 2-10 spread is most established in academic literature, while the 3M-10Y spread is often considered more sensitive, as the 3-month rate directly reflects current monetary policy (Ang, Piazzesi, and Wei, 2006).
7.2 Credit Conditions and Spreads
Credit spreads—the yield difference between risky corporate bonds and safe government bonds—reflect risk perception in the credit market. Gilchrist and Zakrajšek (2012) constructed an "Excess Bond Premium" that measures the component of credit spreads not explained by fundamentals and showed this is a predictor of future economic activity and stock returns.
The model approximates credit spread by comparing the yield of high-yield bond ETFs (HYG) with investment-grade bond ETFs (LQD). A narrow spread below 200 basis points signals healthy credit conditions and risk appetite, contributing 30 points to the macro score. Very wide spreads above 1000 basis points (as during the 2008 financial crisis) signal credit crunch and generate zero points.
Additionally, the model evaluates whether "flight to quality" is occurring, identified through strong performance of Treasury bonds (TLT) with simultaneous weakness in high-yield bonds. This constellation indicates elevated risk aversion and reduces the credit conditions score.
7.3 Financial Stability at Corporate Level
While the yield curve and credit spreads reflect macroeconomic conditions, financial stability evaluates the health of companies themselves. The model uses the aggregated debt-to-equity ratio and return on equity of the S&P 500 as proxies for corporate health.
A low leverage level below 0.5 combined with high ROE above 15% signals robust corporate balance sheets and generates 20 points. This combination is particularly valuable as it represents both defensive strength (low debt means crisis resistance) and offensive strength (high ROE means earnings power). High leverage above 1.5 generates only 5 points, as it implies vulnerability to interest rate increases and recessions.
Korteweg (2010) showed in "The Net Benefits to Leverage" that optimal debt maximizes firm value, but excessive debt increases distress costs. At the aggregated market level, high debt indicates fragilities that can become problematic during stress phases.
8. Component 6: Crisis Detection
8.1 The Need for Systematic Crisis Detection
Financial crises are rare but extremely impactful events that suspend normal statistical relationships. During normal market volatility, diversified portfolios and traditional risk management approaches function, but during systemic crises, seemingly independent assets suddenly correlate strongly, and losses exceed historical expectations (Longin and Solnik, 2001). This justifies a separate crisis detection mechanism that operates independently of regular allocation components.
Reinhart and Rogoff (2009) documented in "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly" recurring patterns in financial crises: extreme volatility, massive drawdowns, credit market dysfunction, and asset price collapse. DEAM operationalizes these patterns into quantifiable crisis indicators.
8.2 Multi-Signal Crisis Identification
The model uses a counter-based approach where various stress signals are identified and aggregated. This methodology is more robust than relying on a single indicator, as true crises typically occur simultaneously across multiple dimensions. A single signal may be a false alarm, but the simultaneous presence of multiple signals increases confidence.
The first indicator is a VIX above the crisis threshold (default 40), adding one point. A VIX above 60 (as in 2008 and March 2020) adds two additional points, as such extreme values are historically very rare. This tiered approach captures the intensity of volatility.
The second indicator is market drawdown. A drawdown above 15% adds one point, as corrections of this magnitude can be potential harbingers of larger crises. A drawdown above 25% adds another point, as historical bear markets typically encompass 25-40% drawdowns.
The third indicator is credit market spreads above 500 basis points, adding one point. Such wide spreads occur only during significant credit market disruptions, as in 2008 during the Lehman crisis.
The fourth indicator identifies simultaneous losses in stocks and bonds. Normally, Treasury bonds act as a hedge against equity risk (negative correlation), but when both fall simultaneously, this indicates systemic liquidity problems or inflation/stagflation fears. The model checks whether both SPY and TLT have fallen more than 10% and 5% respectively over 5 trading days, adding two points.
The fifth indicator is a volume spike combined with negative returns. Extreme trading volumes (above twice the 20-day average) with falling prices signal panic selling. This adds one point.
A crisis situation is diagnosed when at least 3 indicators trigger, a severe crisis at 5 or more indicators. These thresholds were calibrated through historical backtesting to identify true crises (2008, 2020) without generating excessive false alarms.
8.3 Crisis-Based Allocation Override
When a crisis is detected, the system overrides the normal allocation recommendation and caps equity allocation at maximum 25%. In a severe crisis, the cap is set at 10%. This drastic defensive posture follows the empirical observation that crises typically require time to develop and that early reduction can avoid substantial losses (Faber, 2007).
This override logic implements a "safety first" principle: in situations of existential danger to the portfolio, capital preservation becomes the top priority. Roy (1952) formalized this approach in "Safety First and the Holding of Assets," arguing that investors should primarily minimize ruin probability.
9. Integration and Final Allocation Calculation
9.1 Component Weighting
The final allocation recommendation emerges through weighted aggregation of the five components. The standard weighting is: Market Regime 35%, Risk Management 25%, Valuation 20%, Sentiment 15%, Macro 5%. These weights reflect both theoretical considerations and empirical backtesting results.
The highest weighting of market regime is based on evidence that trend-following and momentum strategies have delivered robust results across various asset classes and time periods (Moskowitz, Ooi, and Pedersen, 2012). Current market momentum is highly informative for the near future, although it provides no information about long-term expectations.
The substantial weighting of risk management (25%) follows from the central importance of risk control. Wealth preservation is the foundation of long-term wealth creation, and systematic risk management is demonstrably value-creating (Moreira and Muir, 2017).
The valuation component receives 20% weight, based on the long-term mean reversion of valuation metrics. While valuation has limited short-term predictive power (bull and bear markets can begin at any valuation), the long-term relationship between valuation and returns is robustly documented (Campbell and Shiller, 1988).
Sentiment (15%) and Macro (5%) receive lower weights, as these factors are subtler and harder to measure. Sentiment is valuable as a contrarian indicator at extremes but less informative in normal ranges. Macro variables such as the yield curve have strong predictive power for recessions, but the transmission from recessions to stock market performance is complex and temporally variable.
9.2 Model Type Adjustments
DEAM allows users to choose between four model types: Conservative, Balanced, Aggressive, and Adaptive. This choice modifies the final allocation through additive adjustments.
Conservative mode subtracts 10 percentage points from allocation, resulting in consistently more cautious positioning. This is suitable for risk-averse investors or those with limited investment horizons. Aggressive mode adds 10 percentage points, suitable for risk-tolerant investors with long horizons.
Adaptive mode implements procyclical adjustment based on short-term momentum: if the market has risen more than 5% in the last 20 days, 5 percentage points are added; if it has declined more than 5%, 5 points are subtracted. This logic follows the observation that short-term momentum persists (Jegadeesh and Titman, 1993), but the moderate size of adjustment avoids excessive timing bets.
Balanced mode makes no adjustment and uses raw model output. This neutral setting is suitable for investors who wish to trust model recommendations unchanged.
9.3 Smoothing and Stability
The allocation resulting from aggregation undergoes final smoothing through a simple moving average over 3 periods. This smoothing is crucial for model practicality, as it reduces frequent trading and thus transaction costs. Without smoothing, the model could fluctuate between adjacent allocations with every small input change.
The choice of 3 periods as smoothing window is a compromise between responsiveness and stability. Longer smoothing would excessively delay signals and impede response to true regime changes. Shorter or no smoothing would allow too much noise. Empirical tests showed that 3-period smoothing offers an optimal ratio between these goals.
10. Visualization and Interpretation
10.1 Main Output: Equity Allocation
DEAM's primary output is a time series from 0 to 100 representing the recommended percentage allocation to equities. This representation is intuitive: 100% means full investment in stocks (specifically: an S&P 500 ETF), 0% means complete cash position, and intermediate values correspond to mixed portfolios. A value of 60% means, for example: invest 60% of wealth in SPY, hold 40% in money market instruments or cash.
The time series is color-coded to enable quick visual interpretation. Green shades represent high allocations (above 80%, bullish), red shades low allocations (below 20%, bearish), and neutral colors middle allocations. The chart background is dynamically colored based on the signal, enhancing readability in different market phases.
10.2 Dashboard Metrics
A tabular dashboard presents key metrics compactly. This includes current allocation, cash allocation (complement), an aggregated signal (BULLISH/NEUTRAL/BEARISH), current market regime, VIX level, market drawdown, and crisis status.
Additionally, fundamental metrics are displayed: P/E Ratio, Equity Risk Premium, Return on Equity, Debt-to-Equity Ratio, and Total Shareholder Yield. This transparency allows users to understand model decisions and form their own assessments.
Component scores (Regime, Risk, Valuation, Sentiment, Macro) are also displayed, each normalized on a 0-100 scale. This shows which factors primarily drive the current recommendation. If, for example, the Risk score is very low (20) while other scores are moderate (50-60), this indicates that risk management considerations are pulling allocation down.
10.3 Component Breakdown (Optional)
Advanced users can display individual components as separate lines in the chart. This enables analysis of component dynamics: do all components move synchronously, or are there divergences? Divergences can be particularly informative. If, for example, the market regime is bullish (high score) but the valuation component is very negative, this signals an overbought market not fundamentally supported—a classic "bubble warning."
This feature is disabled by default to keep the chart clean but can be activated for deeper analysis.
10.4 Confidence Bands
The model optionally displays uncertainty bands around the main allocation line. These are calculated as ±1 standard deviation of allocation over a rolling 20-period window. Wide bands indicate high volatility of model recommendations, suggesting uncertain market conditions. Narrow bands indicate stable recommendations.
This visualization implements a concept of epistemic uncertainty—uncertainty about the model estimate itself, not just market volatility. In phases where various indicators send conflicting signals, the allocation recommendation becomes more volatile, manifesting in wider bands. Users can understand this as a warning to act more cautiously or consult alternative information sources.
11. Alert System
11.1 Allocation Alerts
DEAM implements an alert system that notifies users of significant events. Allocation alerts trigger when smoothed allocation crosses certain thresholds. An alert is generated when allocation reaches 80% (from below), signaling strong bullish conditions. Another alert triggers when allocation falls to 20%, indicating defensive positioning.
These thresholds are not arbitrary but correspond with boundaries between model regimes. An allocation of 80% roughly corresponds to a clear bull market regime, while 20% corresponds to a bear market regime. Alerts at these points are therefore informative about fundamental regime shifts.
11.2 Crisis Alerts
Separate alerts trigger upon detection of crisis and severe crisis. These alerts have highest priority as they signal large risks. A crisis alert should prompt investors to review their portfolio and potentially take defensive measures beyond the automatic model recommendation (e.g., hedging through put options, rebalancing to more defensive sectors).
11.3 Regime Change Alerts
An alert triggers upon change of market regime (e.g., from Neutral to Correction, or from Bull Market to Strong Bull). Regime changes are highly informative events that typically entail substantial allocation changes. These alerts enable investors to proactively respond to changes in market dynamics.
11.4 Risk Breach Alerts
A specialized alert triggers when actual portfolio risk utilization exceeds target parameters by 20%. This is a warning signal that the risk management system is reaching its limits, possibly because market volatility is rising faster than allocation can be reduced. In such situations, investors should consider manual interventions.
12. Practical Application and Limitations
12.1 Portfolio Implementation
DEAM generates a recommendation for allocation between equities (S&P 500) and cash. Implementation by an investor can take various forms. The most direct method is using an S&P 500 ETF (e.g., SPY, VOO) for equity allocation and a money market fund or savings account for cash allocation.
A rebalancing strategy is required to synchronize actual allocation with model recommendation. Two approaches are possible: (1) rule-based rebalancing at every 10% deviation between actual and target, or (2) time-based monthly rebalancing. Both have trade-offs between responsiveness and transaction costs. Empirical evidence (Jaconetti, Kinniry, and Zilbering, 2010) suggests rebalancing frequency has moderate impact on performance, and investors should optimize based on their transaction costs.
12.2 Adaptation to Individual Preferences
The model offers numerous adjustment parameters. Component weights can be modified if investors place more or less belief in certain factors. A fundamentally-oriented investor might increase valuation weight, while a technical trader might increase regime weight.
Risk target parameters (target volatility, max drawdown) should be adapted to individual risk tolerance. Younger investors with long investment horizons can choose higher target volatility (15-18%), while retirees may prefer lower volatility (8-10%). This adjustment systematically shifts average equity allocation.
Crisis thresholds can be adjusted based on preference for sensitivity versus specificity of crisis detection. Lower thresholds (e.g., VIX > 35 instead of 40) increase sensitivity (more crises are detected) but reduce specificity (more false alarms). Higher thresholds have the reverse effect.
12.3 Limitations and Disclaimers
DEAM is based on historical relationships between indicators and market performance. There is no guarantee these relationships will persist in the future. Structural changes in markets (e.g., through regulation, technology, or central bank policy) can break established patterns. This is the fundamental problem of induction in financial science (Taleb, 2007).
The model is optimized for US equities (S&P 500). Application to other markets (international stocks, bonds, commodities) would require recalibration. The indicators and thresholds are specific to the statistical properties of the US equity market.
The model cannot eliminate losses. Even with perfect crisis prediction, an investor following the model would lose money in bear markets—just less than a buy-and-hold investor. The goal is risk-adjusted performance improvement, not risk elimination.
Transaction costs are not modeled. In practice, spreads, commissions, and taxes reduce net returns. Frequent trading can cause substantial costs. Model smoothing helps minimize this, but users should consider their specific cost situation.
The model reacts to information; it does not anticipate it. During sudden shocks (e.g., 9/11, COVID-19 lockdowns), the model can only react after price movements, not before. This limitation is inherent to all reactive systems.
12.4 Relationship to Other Strategies
DEAM is a tactical asset allocation approach and should be viewed as a complement, not replacement, for strategic asset allocation. Brinson, Hood, and Beebower (1986) showed in their influential study "Determinants of Portfolio Performance" that strategic asset allocation (long-term policy allocation) explains the majority of portfolio performance, but this leaves room for tactical adjustments based on market timing.
The model can be combined with value and momentum strategies at the individual stock level. While DEAM controls overall market exposure, within-equity decisions can be optimized through stock-picking models. This separation between strategic (market exposure) and tactical (stock selection) levels follows classical portfolio theory.
The model does not replace diversification across asset classes. A complete portfolio should also include bonds, international stocks, real estate, and alternative investments. DEAM addresses only the US equity allocation decision within a broader portfolio.
13. Scientific Foundation and Evaluation
13.1 Theoretical Consistency
DEAM's components are based on established financial theory and empirical evidence. The market regime component follows from regime-switching models (Hamilton, 1989) and trend-following literature. The risk management component implements volatility targeting (Moreira and Muir, 2017) and modern portfolio theory (Markowitz, 1952). The valuation component is based on discounted cash flow theory and empirical value research (Campbell and Shiller, 1988; Fama and French, 1992). The sentiment component integrates behavioral finance (Baker and Wurgler, 2006). The macro component uses established business cycle indicators (Estrella and Mishkin, 1998).
This theoretical grounding distinguishes DEAM from purely data-mining-based approaches that identify patterns without causal theory. Theory-guided models have greater probability of functioning out-of-sample, as they are based on fundamental mechanisms, not random correlations (Lo and MacKinlay, 1990).
13.2 Empirical Validation
While this document does not present detailed backtest analysis, it should be noted that rigorous validation of a tactical asset allocation model should include several elements:
In-sample testing establishes whether the model functions at all in the data on which it was calibrated. Out-of-sample testing is crucial: the model should be tested in time periods not used for development. Walk-forward analysis, where the model is successively trained on rolling windows and tested in the next window, approximates real implementation.
Performance metrics should be risk-adjusted. Pure return consideration is misleading, as higher returns often only compensate for higher risk. Sharpe Ratio, Sortino Ratio, Calmar Ratio, and Maximum Drawdown are relevant metrics. Comparison with benchmarks (Buy-and-Hold S&P 500, 60/40 Stock/Bond portfolio) contextualizes performance.
Robustness checks test sensitivity to parameter variation. If the model only functions at specific parameter settings, this indicates overfitting. Robust models show consistent performance over a range of plausible parameters.
13.3 Comparison with Existing Literature
DEAM fits into the broader literature on tactical asset allocation. Faber (2007) presented a simple momentum-based timing system that goes long when the market is above its 10-month average, otherwise cash. This simple system avoided large drawdowns in bear markets. DEAM can be understood as a sophistication of this approach that integrates multiple information sources.
Ilmanen (2011) discusses various timing factors in "Expected Returns" and argues for multi-factor approaches. DEAM operationalizes this philosophy. Asness, Moskowitz, and Pedersen (2013) showed that value and momentum effects work across asset classes, justifying cross-asset application of regime and valuation signals.
Ang (2014) emphasizes in "Asset Management: A Systematic Approach to Factor Investing" the importance of systematic, rule-based approaches over discretionary decisions. DEAM is fully systematic and eliminates emotional biases that plague individual investors (overconfidence, hindsight bias, loss aversion).
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RSI Trendlines and Divergences█OVERVIEW
The "RSI Trendlines and Divergences" indicator is an advanced technical analysis tool that leverages the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to draw trendlines and detect divergences. Designed for traders seeking precise market signals, the indicator identifies key pivot points on the RSI chart, draws trendlines between pivots, and detects bullish and bearish divergences. It offers flexible settings, background coloring for breakout signals, and divergence labels, supported by alerts for key events. The indicator is universal and works across all markets (stocks, forex, cryptocurrencies) and timeframes.
█CONCEPTS
The indicator was developed to provide an alternative signal source for the RSI oscillator. Trendline breakouts and bounces off trendlines offer a broader perspective on potential price behavior. Combining these with traditional RSI signal interpretation can serve as a foundation for creating various trading strategies.
█FEATURES
- RSI and Pivot Calculation: Calculates RSI based on the selected source price (default: close) with a customizable period (default: 14). Identifies pivot points on RSI and price for trendlines and divergences.
- RSI Trendlines: Draws trendlines connecting RSI pivots (upper for downtrends, lower for uptrends) with optional extension (default: 30 bars). The trendline appears and generates a signal only after the first RSI crossover. Lines are colored (red for upper, green for lower).
- Trendline Fill: Widens the trendline with a tolerance margin expressed in RSI points, reducing signal noise and visually highlighting trend zones. Breaking this zone is a condition for generating signals, minimizing false signals. The tolerance margin can be increased or decreased.
- Divergence Detection: Identifies bullish and bearish divergences based on RSI and price pivots, displaying labels (“Bull” for bullish, “Bear” for bearish) with adjustable transparency. Divergence labels appear with a delay equal to the specified pivot length (default: 5). Higher values yield stronger signals but with greater delay.
- Breakout Signals: Generates signals when RSI crosses the trendline (bullish for upper lines, bearish for lower lines), with background coloring for signal confirmation.
- Alerts: Built-in alerts for:
Detection of bullish and bearish divergences.
Upper trendline crossover (bullish signal).
Lower trendline crossover (bearish signal).
- Customization: Allows adjustment of RSI length, pivot settings, line colors, fills, labels, and transparency of signals and background.
█HOW TO USE
Add the indicator to your TradingView chart via the Pine Editor or Indicators menu.
Configuring Settings.
RSI Settings
- RSI Length: Period for RSI calculation (default: 14).
- SMA Length: Period for RSI moving average (default: 9).
- Source: Source price for RSI (default: close).
Pivot Settings for Trend
- Left Bars for Pivot: Number of bars back for detecting pivots (default: 10).
- Right Bars for Pivot: Number of bars forward for confirming pivots (default: 10).
- Extension after Second Pivot: Number of bars to extend the trendline (default: 30, 0 = none). Extension increases the number of signals, while shortening reduces them.
- Tolerance: Deviation in RSI points to widen the breakout margin, reducing signal noise (default: 3.0).
Divergence Settings
- Enable Divergence Detection: Enables/disables divergence detection (default: enabled).
- Pivot Length for Divergence: Pivot period for divergences (default: 5).
Style Settings
- Upper Trendline Color: Color for downtrend lines (default: red).
- Upper Fill Color: Fill color for upper lines (default: red, transparency 70).
- Lower Trendline Color: Color for uptrend lines (default: green).
- Lower Fill Color: Fill color for lower lines (default: green, transparency 70).
- SMA Color: Color for RSI moving average (default: yellow).
- Bullish Divergence Color: Color for bullish labels (default: green).
- Bearish Divergence Color: Color for bearish labels (default: red).
- Text Color: Color for label text (default: white).
- Divergence Label Transparency: Transparency of labels (0-100, default: 40).
- Signal Background Transparency: Transparency of breakout signal background (0-100, default: 80).
Interpreting Signals
- Trendlines: Upper lines (red) indicate RSI downtrends, lower lines (green) indicate uptrends. The trendline appears and generates a signal only after the first RSI crossover. Trendline breakouts suggest potential trend reversals.
- Divergences: “Bull” labels indicate bullish divergence (potential rise), “Bear” labels indicate bearish divergence (potential decline), with a delay based on pivot length (default: 5). Divergences serve as confirmation or warning of trend reversal, not as standalone signals.
- Signal Background: Green background signals bullish breakouts, red background signals bearish breakouts.
- RSI Levels: Horizontal lines at 70 (overbought), 50 (midline), and 30 (oversold) help assess market zones.
- Alerts: Set up alerts in TradingView for divergences or trendline breakouts.
Combining with Other Tools: Use with support/resistance levels, Fibonacci levels, or other indicators for signal confirmation.
█APPLICATIONS
The "RSI Trendlines and Divergence" indicator is designed to identify trends and potential reversal points, supporting both trend-following and reversal strategies:
- Trend Confirmation: Trendlines indicate the RSI trend direction, with breakouts signaling potential reversals. The indicator is functional in traditional RSI usage, allowing classic RSI interpretation (e.g., returning from overbought/oversold zones). Combining trendline breakouts with RSI signal levels, such as a return from overbought or oversold zones paired with a trendline breakout, strengthens the signal.
- Divergence Detection: Divergences serve as confirmation or warning of trend reversal, not as standalone signals.
█NOTES
- Adjust settings (e.g., RSI length, pivots, tolerance) to suit your trading style and timeframe.
- Combine with other technical analysis tools to enhance signal accuracy.
Stage Market AnalyzerStage Market Analyzer – User Guide
Overview:
The “Stage Market Analyzer” indicator is a comprehensive market analysis tool that identifies the current market phase (6 stages) using multiple EMAs (Exponential Moving Averages) and provides key performance metrics including 52-week high, YTD change, and recent price changes. This indicator is displayed on the chart with a visual table and plotted EMA lines for easy trend analysis.
Market Stages
-The indicator classifies the market into six stages based on the position of price relative to the fast and slow EMAs:
Recovery:
-Price above the fast EMA, but below the slow EMA.
-Slow EMA is above the fast EMA.
-ndicates a market recovering from a downtrend.
Accumulation:
-Price above both EMAs, slow EMA above fast EMA.
-Suggests accumulation phase, usually after a downtrend.
Bull Market:
-Price above both EMAs, fast EMA above slow EMA.
-Represents strong uptrend.
Warning:
-Price below both EMAs, fast EMA above slow EMA.
-Signals caution; potential weakening trend.
Distribution:
-Price below fast EMA, slow EMA below fast EMA.
-Market may be topping or preparing to reverse.
Bear Market:
-Price below both EMAs, slow EMA above fast EMA.
-Strong downtrend confirmed.
The indicator counts consecutive bars within the same stage and displays this as “Stage Name (X Bar)” in the table.
EMA Settings
-Fast EMA: Default 50 bars.
-Slow EMA: Default 200 bars.
Additional EMAs: EMA1 (21), EMA2 (100), EMA3 (150) – optional display.
Users can customize all EMA lengths and choose which EMAs to display.
The plotted EMAs help visualize trends, crossovers, and market momentum.
Performance Metrics
30-Bar & 90-Bar Price Change:
Displays the percentage change over the last 30 or 90 bars.
Positive change in green, negative in red.
YTD Change (Year-to-Date):
-Calculated from the first trading bar of the current year to current price.
-Reflects overall market performance for the current year.
52-Week High:
-Shows the percentage difference between current price and the highest price over the last 52 weeks.
-Adjusts automatically for the chart timeframe:
Daily: last 252 bars
Weekly: last 52 bars
Monthly: last 12 bars
Intraday: calculated based on bars per day × 252 trading days
Positive deviation is shown in green, negative in red.
Note: For non-daily charts, the calculation approximates a “year” based on available bars.
Table Display
Located at the bottom-right of the chart.
Columns:
Current Market Stage (with consecutive bar count)
30-Bar Change
90-Bar Change
YTD Change
52-Week High (optional)
Background colors indicate the stage for quick visual reference.
How to Use
Add the indicator to your chart.
Adjust EMAs to match your trading strategy.
Observe the table to understand:
Current market phase
Short-term and long-term performance metrics
Trend direction using plotted EMAs
Use the stage information together with other analysis (support/resistance, volume, etc.) to make informed trading decisions.
Notes & Recommendations
The indicator works best on daily charts for accurate 52-week high and YTD calculations.
For crypto or non-standard trading calendars, be aware that intraday data may approximate the “year” differently.
EMAs are customizable – experiment with different lengths to fit your preferred timeframe or trading style.
Historical VolatilityHistorical Volatility Indicator with Custom Trading Sessions
Overview
This indicator calculates **annualized Historical Volatility (HV)** using logarithmic returns and standard deviation. Unlike standard HV indicators, this version allows you to **customize trading sessions and holidays** for different markets, ensuring accurate volatility calculations for options pricing and risk management.
Key Features
✅ Custom Trading Sessions - Define multiple trading sessions per day with precise start/end times
✅ Multiple Markets Support - Pre-configured for US, Russian, European, and crypto markets
✅ Clearing Periods Handling - Account for intraday clearing breaks
✅ Flexible Calendar - Set trading days per year for different countries
✅ All Timeframes - Works correctly on intraday, daily, weekly, and monthly charts
✅ Info Table - Optional display showing calculation parameters
How It Works
The indicator uses the classical volatility formula:
σ_annual = σ_period × √(periods per year)
Where:
- σ_period = Standard deviation of logarithmic returns over the specified period
- Periods per year = Calculated based on actual trading time (not calendar time)
Calculation Method
1. Computes log returns: ln(close / close )
2. Calculates standard deviation over the lookback period
3. Annualizes using the square root rule with accurate period count
4. Displays as percentage
Settings
Calculation
- Period (default: 10) - Lookback period for volatility calculation
Trading Schedule
- Trading Days Per Year (default: 252) - Number of actual trading days
- USA: 252
- Russia: 247-250
- Europe: 250-253
- Crypto (24/7): 365
- Trading Sessions - Define trading hours in format: `hh:mm:ss-hh:mm:ss, hh:mm:ss-hh:mm:ss`
Display
- Show Info Table - Shows calculation parameters in real-time
Market Presets
United States (NYSE/NASDAQ)
Trading Sessions: 09:30:00-16:00:00
Trading Days Per Year: 252
Trading Minutes Per Day: 390
Russia (MOEX)
Trading Sessions: 10:00:00-14:00:00, 14:05:00-18:40:00
Trading Days Per Year: 248
Trading Minutes Per Day: 515
Europe (LSE)
Trading Sessions: 08:00:00-16:30:00
Trading Days Per Year: 252
Trading Minutes Per Day: 510
Germany (XETRA)
Trading Sessions: 09:00:00-17:30:00
Trading Days Per Year: 252
Trading Minutes Per Day: 510
Cryptocurrency (24/7)
Trading Sessions: 00:00:00-23:59:59
Trading Days Per Year: 365
Trading Minutes Per Day: 1440
Use Cases
Options Trading
- Compare HV vs IV - Historical volatility compared to implied volatility helps identify mispriced options
- Volatility mean reversion - Identify when volatility is unusually high or low
- Straddle/strangle selection - Choose optimal strikes based on historical movement
Risk Management
- Position sizing - Adjust position size based on current volatility
- Stop-loss placement - Set stops based on expected price movement
- Portfolio volatility - Monitor individual asset volatility contribution
Market Analysis
- Regime identification - Detect transitions between low and high volatility environments
- Cross-market comparison - Compare volatility across different assets and markets
Why Accurate Trading Hours Matter
Standard HV indicators assume 24-hour trading or use simplified day counts, leading to significant errors in annualized volatility:
- 5-minute chart error : Can be off by 50%+ if using wrong period count
- Options pricing impact : Even 2-3% HV error affects option values substantially
- Intraday vs overnight : Correctly excludes non-trading periods
This indicator ensures your HV calculations match the methodology used in professional options pricing models.
Technical Notes
- Uses actual trading minutes, not calendar days
- Handles multiple clearing periods within a single trading day
- Properly scales volatility across all timeframes
- Logarithmic returns for more accurate volatility measurement
- Compatible with Pine Script v6
Author Notes: This indicator was designed specifically for options traders who need precise volatility measurements across different global markets. The customizable trading sessions ensure your HV calculations align with actual market hours and industry-standard options pricing models.
BOCS Channel Scalper Indicator - Mean Reversion Alert System# BOCS Channel Scalper Indicator - Mean Reversion Alert System
## WHAT THIS INDICATOR DOES:
This is a mean reversion trading indicator that identifies consolidation channels through volatility analysis and generates alert signals when price enters entry zones near channel boundaries. **This indicator version is designed for manual trading with comprehensive alert functionality.** Unlike automated strategies, this tool sends notifications (via popup, email, SMS, or webhook) when trading opportunities occur, allowing you to manually review and execute trades. The system assumes price will revert to the channel mean, identifying scalp opportunities as price reaches extremes and preparing to bounce back toward center.
## INDICATOR VS STRATEGY - KEY DISTINCTION:
**This is an INDICATOR with alerts, not an automated strategy.** It does not execute trades automatically. Instead, it:
- Displays visual signals on your chart when entry conditions are met
- Sends customizable alerts to your device/email when opportunities arise
- Shows TP/SL levels for reference but does not place orders
- Requires you to manually enter and exit positions based on signals
- Works with all TradingView subscription levels (alerts included on all plans)
**For automated trading with backtesting**, use the strategy version. For manual control with notifications, use this indicator version.
## ALERT CAPABILITIES:
This indicator includes four distinct alert conditions that can be configured independently:
**1. New Channel Formation Alert**
- Triggers when a fresh BOCS channel is identified
- Message: "New BOCS channel formed - potential scalp setup ready"
- Use this to prepare for upcoming trading opportunities
**2. Long Scalp Entry Alert**
- Fires when price touches the long entry zone
- Message includes current price, calculated TP, and SL levels
- Notification example: "LONG scalp signal at 24731.75 | TP: 24743.2 | SL: 24716.5"
**3. Short Scalp Entry Alert**
- Fires when price touches the short entry zone
- Message includes current price, calculated TP, and SL levels
- Notification example: "SHORT scalp signal at 24747.50 | TP: 24735.0 | SL: 24762.75"
**4. Any Entry Signal Alert**
- Combined alert for both long and short entries
- Use this if you want a single alert stream for all opportunities
- Message: "BOCS Scalp Entry: at "
**Setting Up Alerts:**
1. Add indicator to chart and configure settings
2. Click the Alert (⏰) button in TradingView toolbar
3. Select "BOCS Channel Scalper" from condition dropdown
4. Choose desired alert type (Long, Short, Any, or Channel Formation)
5. Set "Once Per Bar Close" to avoid false signals during bar formation
6. Configure delivery method (popup, email, webhook for automation platforms)
7. Save alert - it will fire automatically when conditions are met
**Alert Message Placeholders:**
Alerts use TradingView's dynamic placeholder system:
- {{ticker}} = Symbol name (e.g., NQ1!)
- {{close}} = Current price at signal
- {{plot_1}} = Calculated take profit level
- {{plot_2}} = Calculated stop loss level
These placeholders populate automatically, creating detailed notification messages without manual configuration.
## KEY DIFFERENCE FROM ORIGINAL BOCS:
**This indicator is designed for traders seeking higher trade frequency.** The original BOCS indicator trades breakouts OUTSIDE channels, waiting for price to escape consolidation before entering. This scalper version trades mean reversion INSIDE channels, entering when price reaches channel extremes and betting on a bounce back to center. The result is significantly more trading opportunities:
- **Original BOCS**: 1-3 signals per channel (only on breakout)
- **Scalper Indicator**: 5-15+ signals per channel (every touch of entry zones)
- **Trade Style**: Mean reversion vs trend following
- **Hold Time**: Seconds to minutes vs minutes to hours
- **Best Markets**: Ranging/choppy conditions vs trending breakouts
This makes the indicator ideal for active day traders who want continuous alert opportunities within consolidation zones rather than waiting for breakout confirmation. However, increased signal frequency also means higher potential commission costs and requires disciplined trade selection when acting on alerts.
## TECHNICAL METHODOLOGY:
### Price Normalization Process:
The indicator normalizes price data to create consistent volatility measurements across different instruments and price levels. It calculates the highest high and lowest low over a user-defined lookback period (default 100 bars). Current close price is normalized using: (close - lowest_low) / (highest_high - lowest_low), producing values between 0 and 1 for standardized volatility analysis.
### Volatility Detection:
A 14-period standard deviation is applied to the normalized price series to measure price deviation from the mean. Higher standard deviation values indicate volatility expansion; lower values indicate consolidation. The indicator uses ta.highestbars() and ta.lowestbars() to identify when volatility peaks and troughs occur over the detection period (default 14 bars).
### Channel Formation Logic:
When volatility crosses from a high level to a low level (ta.crossover(upper, lower)), a consolidation phase begins. The indicator tracks the highest and lowest prices during this period, which become the channel boundaries. Minimum duration of 10+ bars is required to filter out brief volatility spikes. Channels are rendered as box objects with defined upper and lower boundaries, with colored zones indicating entry areas.
### Entry Signal Generation:
The indicator uses immediate touch-based entry logic. Entry zones are defined as a percentage from channel edges (default 20%):
- **Long Entry Zone**: Bottom 20% of channel (bottomBound + channelRange × 0.2)
- **Short Entry Zone**: Top 20% of channel (topBound - channelRange × 0.2)
Long signals trigger when candle low touches or enters the long entry zone. Short signals trigger when candle high touches or enters the short entry zone. Visual markers (arrows and labels) appear on chart, and configured alerts fire immediately.
### Cooldown Filter:
An optional cooldown period (measured in bars) prevents alert spam by enforcing minimum spacing between consecutive signals. If cooldown is set to 3 bars, no new long alert will fire until 3 bars after the previous long signal. Long and short cooldowns are tracked independently, allowing both directions to signal within the same period.
### ATR Volatility Filter:
The indicator includes a multi-timeframe ATR filter to avoid alerts during low-volatility conditions. Using request.security(), it fetches ATR values from a specified timeframe (e.g., 1-minute ATR while viewing 5-minute charts). The filter compares current ATR to a user-defined minimum threshold:
- If ATR ≥ threshold: Alerts enabled
- If ATR < threshold: No alerts fire
This prevents notifications during dead zones where mean reversion is unreliable due to insufficient price movement. The ATR status is displayed in the info table with visual confirmation (✓ or ✗).
### Take Profit Calculation:
Two TP methods are available:
**Fixed Points Mode**:
- Long TP = Entry + (TP_Ticks × syminfo.mintick)
- Short TP = Entry - (TP_Ticks × syminfo.mintick)
**Channel Percentage Mode**:
- Long TP = Entry + (ChannelRange × TP_Percent)
- Short TP = Entry - (ChannelRange × TP_Percent)
Default 50% targets the channel midline, a natural mean reversion target. These levels are displayed as visual lines with labels and included in alert messages for reference when manually placing orders.
### Stop Loss Placement:
Stop losses are calculated just outside the channel boundary by a user-defined tick offset:
- Long SL = ChannelBottom - (SL_Offset_Ticks × syminfo.mintick)
- Short SL = ChannelTop + (SL_Offset_Ticks × syminfo.mintick)
This logic assumes channel breaks invalidate the mean reversion thesis. SL levels are displayed on chart and included in alert notifications as suggested stop placement.
### Channel Breakout Management:
Channels are removed when price closes more than 10 ticks outside boundaries. This tolerance prevents premature channel deletion from minor breaks or wicks, allowing the mean reversion setup to persist through small boundary violations.
## INPUT PARAMETERS:
### Channel Settings:
- **Nested Channels**: Allow multiple overlapping channels vs single channel
- **Normalization Length**: Lookback for high/low calculation (1-500, default 100)
- **Box Detection Length**: Period for volatility detection (1-100, default 14)
### Scalping Settings:
- **Enable Long Scalps**: Toggle long alert generation on/off
- **Enable Short Scalps**: Toggle short alert generation on/off
- **Entry Zone % from Edge**: Size of entry zone (5-50%, default 20%)
- **SL Offset (Ticks)**: Distance beyond channel for stop (1+, default 5)
- **Cooldown Period (Bars)**: Minimum spacing between alerts (0 = no cooldown)
### ATR Filter:
- **Enable ATR Filter**: Toggle volatility filter on/off
- **ATR Timeframe**: Source timeframe for ATR (1, 5, 15, 60 min, etc.)
- **ATR Length**: Smoothing period (1-100, default 14)
- **Min ATR Value**: Threshold for alert enablement (0.1+, default 10.0)
### Take Profit Settings:
- **TP Method**: Choose Fixed Points or % of Channel
- **TP Fixed (Ticks)**: Static distance in ticks (1+, default 30)
- **TP % of Channel**: Dynamic target as channel percentage (10-100%, default 50%)
### Appearance:
- **Show Entry Zones**: Toggle zone labels on channels
- **Show Info Table**: Display real-time indicator status
- **Table Position**: Corner placement (Top Left/Right, Bottom Left/Right)
- **Long Color**: Customize long signal color (default: darker green for readability)
- **Short Color**: Customize short signal color (default: red)
- **TP/SL Colors**: Customize take profit and stop loss line colors
- **Line Length**: Visual length of TP/SL reference lines (5-200 bars)
## VISUAL INDICATORS:
- **Channel boxes** with semi-transparent fill showing consolidation zones
- **Colored entry zones** labeled "LONG ZONE ▲" and "SHORT ZONE ▼"
- **Entry signal arrows** below/above bars marking long/short alerts
- **TP/SL reference lines** with emoji labels (⊕ Entry, 🎯 TP, 🛑 SL)
- **Info table** showing channel status, last signal, entry/TP/SL prices, risk/reward ratio, and ATR filter status
- **Visual confirmation** when alerts fire via on-chart markers synchronized with notifications
## HOW TO USE:
### For 1-3 Minute Scalping with Alerts (NQ/ES):
- ATR Timeframe: "1" (1-minute)
- ATR Min Value: 10.0 (for NQ), adjust per instrument
- Entry Zone %: 20-25%
- TP Method: Fixed Points, 20-40 ticks
- SL Offset: 5-10 ticks
- Cooldown: 2-3 bars to reduce alert spam
- **Alert Setup**: Configure "Any Entry Signal" for combined long/short notifications
- **Execution**: When alert fires, verify chart visuals, then manually place limit order at entry zone with provided TP/SL levels
### For 5-15 Minute Day Trading with Alerts:
- ATR Timeframe: "5" or match chart
- ATR Min Value: Adjust to instrument (test 8-15 for NQ)
- Entry Zone %: 20-30%
- TP Method: % of Channel, 40-60%
- SL Offset: 5-10 ticks
- Cooldown: 3-5 bars
- **Alert Setup**: Configure separate "Long Scalp Entry" and "Short Scalp Entry" alerts if you trade directionally based on bias
- **Execution**: Review channel structure on alert, confirm ATR filter shows ✓, then enter manually
### For 30-60 Minute Swing Scalping with Alerts:
- ATR Timeframe: "15" or "30"
- ATR Min Value: Lower threshold for broader market
- Entry Zone %: 25-35%
- TP Method: % of Channel, 50-70%
- SL Offset: 10-15 ticks
- Cooldown: 5+ bars or disable
- **Alert Setup**: Use "New Channel Formation" to prepare for setups, then "Any Entry Signal" for execution alerts
- **Execution**: Larger timeframes allow more analysis time between alert and entry
### Webhook Integration for Semi-Automation:
- Configure alert webhook URL to connect with platforms like TradersPost, TradingView Paper Trading, or custom automation
- Alert message includes all necessary order parameters (direction, entry, TP, SL)
- Webhook receives structured data when signal fires
- External platform can auto-execute based on alert payload
- Still maintains manual oversight vs full strategy automation
## USAGE CONSIDERATIONS:
- **Manual Discipline Required**: Alerts provide opportunities but execution requires judgment. Not all alerts should be taken - consider market context, trend, and channel quality
- **Alert Timing**: Alerts fire on bar close by default. Ensure "Once Per Bar Close" is selected to avoid false signals during bar formation
- **Notification Delivery**: Mobile/email alerts may have 1-3 second delay. For immediate execution, use desktop popups or webhook automation
- **Cooldown Necessity**: Without cooldown, rapidly touching price action can generate excessive alerts. Start with 3-bar cooldown and adjust based on alert volume
- **ATR Filter Impact**: Enabling ATR filter dramatically reduces alert count but improves quality. Track filter status in info table to understand when you're receiving fewer alerts
- **Commission Awareness**: High alert frequency means high potential trade count. Calculate if your commission structure supports frequent scalping before acting on all alerts
## COMPATIBLE MARKETS:
Works on any instrument with price data including stock indices (NQ, ES, YM, RTY), individual stocks, forex pairs (EUR/USD, GBP/USD), cryptocurrency (BTC, ETH), and commodities. Volume-based features are not included in this indicator version. Multi-timeframe ATR requires higher-tier TradingView subscription for request.security() functionality on timeframes below chart timeframe.
## KNOWN LIMITATIONS:
- **Indicator does not execute trades** - alerts are informational only; you must manually place all orders
- **Alert delivery depends on TradingView infrastructure** - delays or failures possible during platform issues
- **No position tracking** - indicator doesn't know if you're in a trade; you must manage open positions independently
- **TP/SL levels are reference only** - you must manually set these on your broker platform; they are not live orders
- **Immediate touch entry can generate many alerts** in choppy zones without adequate cooldown
- **Channel deletion at 10-tick breaks** may be too aggressive or lenient depending on instrument tick size
- **ATR filter from lower timeframes** requires TradingView Premium/Pro+ for request.security()
- **Mean reversion logic fails** in strong breakout scenarios - alerts will fire but trades may hit stops
- **No partial closing capability** - full position management is manual; you determine scaling out
- **Alerts do not account for gaps** or overnight price changes; morning alerts may be stale
## RISK DISCLOSURE:
Trading involves substantial risk of loss. This indicator provides signals for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Mean reversion strategies can experience extended drawdowns during trending markets. Alerts are not guaranteed to be profitable and should be combined with your own analysis. Stop losses may not fill at intended levels during extreme volatility or gaps. Never trade with capital you cannot afford to lose. Consider consulting a licensed financial advisor before making trading decisions. Always verify alerts against current market conditions before executing trades manually.
## ACKNOWLEDGMENT & CREDITS:
This indicator is built upon the channel detection methodology created by **AlgoAlpha** in the "Smart Money Breakout Channels" indicator. Full credit and appreciation to AlgoAlpha for pioneering the normalized volatility approach to identifying consolidation patterns. The core channel formation logic using normalized price standard deviation is AlgoAlpha's original contribution to the TradingView community.
Enhancements to the original concept include: mean reversion entry logic (vs breakout), immediate touch-based alert generation, comprehensive alert condition system with customizable notifications, multi-timeframe ATR volatility filtering, cooldown period for alert management, dual TP methods (fixed points vs channel percentage), visual TP/SL reference lines, and real-time status monitoring table. This indicator version is specifically designed for manual traders who prefer alert-based decision making over automated execution.
BOCS Channel Scalper Strategy - Automated Mean Reversion System# BOCS Channel Scalper Strategy - Automated Mean Reversion System
## WHAT THIS STRATEGY DOES:
This is an automated mean reversion trading strategy that identifies consolidation channels through volatility analysis and executes scalp trades when price enters entry zones near channel boundaries. Unlike breakout strategies, this system assumes price will revert to the channel mean, taking profits as price bounces back from extremes. Position sizing is fully customizable with three methods: fixed contracts, percentage of equity, or fixed dollar amount. Stop losses are placed just outside channel boundaries with take profits calculated either as fixed points or as a percentage of channel range.
## KEY DIFFERENCE FROM ORIGINAL BOCS:
**This strategy is designed for traders seeking higher trade frequency.** The original BOCS indicator trades breakouts OUTSIDE channels, waiting for price to escape consolidation before entering. This scalper version trades mean reversion INSIDE channels, entering when price reaches channel extremes and betting on a bounce back to center. The result is significantly more trading opportunities:
- **Original BOCS**: 1-3 signals per channel (only on breakout)
- **Scalper Version**: 5-15+ signals per channel (every touch of entry zones)
- **Trade Style**: Mean reversion vs trend following
- **Hold Time**: Seconds to minutes vs minutes to hours
- **Best Markets**: Ranging/choppy conditions vs trending breakouts
This makes the scalper ideal for active day traders who want continuous opportunities within consolidation zones rather than waiting for breakout confirmation. However, increased trade frequency also means higher commission costs and requires tighter risk management.
## TECHNICAL METHODOLOGY:
### Price Normalization Process:
The strategy normalizes price data to create consistent volatility measurements across different instruments and price levels. It calculates the highest high and lowest low over a user-defined lookback period (default 100 bars). Current close price is normalized using: (close - lowest_low) / (highest_high - lowest_low), producing values between 0 and 1 for standardized volatility analysis.
### Volatility Detection:
A 14-period standard deviation is applied to the normalized price series to measure price deviation from the mean. Higher standard deviation values indicate volatility expansion; lower values indicate consolidation. The strategy uses ta.highestbars() and ta.lowestbars() to identify when volatility peaks and troughs occur over the detection period (default 14 bars).
### Channel Formation Logic:
When volatility crosses from a high level to a low level (ta.crossover(upper, lower)), a consolidation phase begins. The strategy tracks the highest and lowest prices during this period, which become the channel boundaries. Minimum duration of 10+ bars is required to filter out brief volatility spikes. Channels are rendered as box objects with defined upper and lower boundaries, with colored zones indicating entry areas.
### Entry Signal Generation:
The strategy uses immediate touch-based entry logic. Entry zones are defined as a percentage from channel edges (default 20%):
- **Long Entry Zone**: Bottom 20% of channel (bottomBound + channelRange × 0.2)
- **Short Entry Zone**: Top 20% of channel (topBound - channelRange × 0.2)
Long signals trigger when candle low touches or enters the long entry zone. Short signals trigger when candle high touches or enters the short entry zone. This captures mean reversion opportunities as price reaches channel extremes.
### Cooldown Filter:
An optional cooldown period (measured in bars) prevents signal spam by enforcing minimum spacing between consecutive signals. If cooldown is set to 3 bars, no new long signal will fire until 3 bars after the previous long signal. Long and short cooldowns are tracked independently, allowing both directions to signal within the same period.
### ATR Volatility Filter:
The strategy includes a multi-timeframe ATR filter to avoid trading during low-volatility conditions. Using request.security(), it fetches ATR values from a specified timeframe (e.g., 1-minute ATR while trading on 5-minute charts). The filter compares current ATR to a user-defined minimum threshold:
- If ATR ≥ threshold: Trading enabled
- If ATR < threshold: No signals fire
This prevents entries during dead zones where mean reversion is unreliable due to insufficient price movement.
### Take Profit Calculation:
Two TP methods are available:
**Fixed Points Mode**:
- Long TP = Entry + (TP_Ticks × syminfo.mintick)
- Short TP = Entry - (TP_Ticks × syminfo.mintick)
**Channel Percentage Mode**:
- Long TP = Entry + (ChannelRange × TP_Percent)
- Short TP = Entry - (ChannelRange × TP_Percent)
Default 50% targets the channel midline, a natural mean reversion target. Larger percentages aim for opposite channel edge.
### Stop Loss Placement:
Stop losses are placed just outside the channel boundary by a user-defined tick offset:
- Long SL = ChannelBottom - (SL_Offset_Ticks × syminfo.mintick)
- Short SL = ChannelTop + (SL_Offset_Ticks × syminfo.mintick)
This logic assumes channel breaks invalidate the mean reversion thesis. If price breaks through, the range is no longer valid and position exits.
### Trade Execution Logic:
When entry conditions are met (price in zone, cooldown satisfied, ATR filter passed, no existing position):
1. Calculate entry price at zone boundary
2. Calculate TP and SL based on selected method
3. Execute strategy.entry() with calculated position size
4. Place strategy.exit() with TP limit and SL stop orders
5. Update info table with active trade details
The strategy enforces one position at a time by checking strategy.position_size == 0 before entry.
### Channel Breakout Management:
Channels are removed when price closes more than 10 ticks outside boundaries. This tolerance prevents premature channel deletion from minor breaks or wicks, allowing the mean reversion setup to persist through small boundary violations.
### Position Sizing System:
Three methods calculate position size:
**Fixed Contracts**:
- Uses exact contract quantity specified in settings
- Best for futures traders (e.g., "trade 2 NQ contracts")
**Percentage of Equity**:
- position_size = (strategy.equity × equity_pct / 100) / close
- Dynamically scales with account growth
**Cash Amount**:
- position_size = cash_amount / close
- Maintains consistent dollar exposure regardless of price
## INPUT PARAMETERS:
### Position Sizing:
- **Position Size Type**: Choose Fixed Contracts, % of Equity, or Cash Amount
- **Number of Contracts**: Fixed quantity per trade (1-1000)
- **% of Equity**: Percentage of account to allocate (1-100%)
- **Cash Amount**: Dollar value per position ($100+)
### Channel Settings:
- **Nested Channels**: Allow multiple overlapping channels vs single channel
- **Normalization Length**: Lookback for high/low calculation (1-500, default 100)
- **Box Detection Length**: Period for volatility detection (1-100, default 14)
### Scalping Settings:
- **Enable Long Scalps**: Toggle long entries on/off
- **Enable Short Scalps**: Toggle short entries on/off
- **Entry Zone % from Edge**: Size of entry zone (5-50%, default 20%)
- **SL Offset (Ticks)**: Distance beyond channel for stop (1+, default 5)
- **Cooldown Period (Bars)**: Minimum spacing between signals (0 = no cooldown)
### ATR Filter:
- **Enable ATR Filter**: Toggle volatility filter on/off
- **ATR Timeframe**: Source timeframe for ATR (1, 5, 15, 60 min, etc.)
- **ATR Length**: Smoothing period (1-100, default 14)
- **Min ATR Value**: Threshold for trade enablement (0.1+, default 10.0)
### Take Profit Settings:
- **TP Method**: Choose Fixed Points or % of Channel
- **TP Fixed (Ticks)**: Static distance in ticks (1+, default 30)
- **TP % of Channel**: Dynamic target as channel percentage (10-100%, default 50%)
### Appearance:
- **Show Entry Zones**: Toggle zone labels on channels
- **Show Info Table**: Display real-time strategy status
- **Table Position**: Corner placement (Top Left/Right, Bottom Left/Right)
- **Color Settings**: Customize long/short/TP/SL colors
## VISUAL INDICATORS:
- **Channel boxes** with semi-transparent fill showing consolidation zones
- **Colored entry zones** labeled "LONG ZONE ▲" and "SHORT ZONE ▼"
- **Entry signal arrows** below/above bars marking long/short entries
- **Active TP/SL lines** with emoji labels (⊕ Entry, 🎯 TP, 🛑 SL)
- **Info table** showing position status, channel state, last signal, entry/TP/SL prices, and ATR status
## HOW TO USE:
### For 1-3 Minute Scalping (NQ/ES):
- ATR Timeframe: "1" (1-minute)
- ATR Min Value: 10.0 (for NQ), adjust per instrument
- Entry Zone %: 20-25%
- TP Method: Fixed Points, 20-40 ticks
- SL Offset: 5-10 ticks
- Cooldown: 2-3 bars
- Position Size: 1-2 contracts
### For 5-15 Minute Day Trading:
- ATR Timeframe: "5" or match chart
- ATR Min Value: Adjust to instrument (test 8-15 for NQ)
- Entry Zone %: 20-30%
- TP Method: % of Channel, 40-60%
- SL Offset: 5-10 ticks
- Cooldown: 3-5 bars
- Position Size: Fixed contracts or 5-10% equity
### For 30-60 Minute Swing Scalping:
- ATR Timeframe: "15" or "30"
- ATR Min Value: Lower threshold for broader market
- Entry Zone %: 25-35%
- TP Method: % of Channel, 50-70%
- SL Offset: 10-15 ticks
- Cooldown: 5+ bars or disable
- Position Size: % of equity recommended
## BACKTEST CONSIDERATIONS:
- Strategy performs best in ranging, mean-reverting markets
- Strong trending markets produce more stop losses as price breaks channels
- ATR filter significantly reduces trade count but improves quality during low volatility
- Cooldown period trades signal quantity for signal quality
- Commission and slippage materially impact sub-5-minute timeframe performance
- Shorter timeframes require tighter entry zones (15-20%) to catch quick reversions
- % of Channel TP adapts better to varying channel sizes than fixed points
- Fixed contract sizing recommended for consistent risk per trade in futures
**Backtesting Parameters Used**: This strategy was developed and tested using realistic commission and slippage values to provide accurate performance expectations. Recommended settings: Commission of $1.40 per side (typical for NQ futures through discount brokers), slippage of 2 ticks to account for execution delays on fast-moving scalp entries. These values reflect real-world trading costs that active scalpers will encounter. Backtest results without proper cost simulation will significantly overstate profitability.
## COMPATIBLE MARKETS:
Works on any instrument with price data including stock indices (NQ, ES, YM, RTY), individual stocks, forex pairs (EUR/USD, GBP/USD), cryptocurrency (BTC, ETH), and commodities. Volume-based features require data feed with volume information but are optional for core functionality.
## KNOWN LIMITATIONS:
- Immediate touch entry can fire multiple times in choppy zones without adequate cooldown
- Channel deletion at 10-tick breaks may be too aggressive or lenient depending on instrument tick size
- ATR filter from lower timeframes requires higher-tier TradingView subscription (request.security limitation)
- Mean reversion logic fails in strong breakout scenarios leading to stop loss hits
- Position sizing via % of equity or cash amount calculates based on close price, may differ from actual fill price
- No partial closing capability - full position exits at TP or SL only
- Strategy does not account for gap openings or overnight holds
## RISK DISCLOSURE:
Trading involves substantial risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This strategy is for educational purposes and backtesting only. Mean reversion strategies can experience extended drawdowns during trending markets. Stop losses may not fill at intended levels during extreme volatility or gaps. Thoroughly test on historical data and paper trade before risking real capital. Use appropriate position sizing and never risk more than you can afford to lose. Consider consulting a licensed financial advisor before making trading decisions. Automated trading systems can malfunction - monitor all live positions actively.
## ACKNOWLEDGMENT & CREDITS:
This strategy is built upon the channel detection methodology created by **AlgoAlpha** in the "Smart Money Breakout Channels" indicator. Full credit and appreciation to AlgoAlpha for pioneering the normalized volatility approach to identifying consolidation patterns. The core channel formation logic using normalized price standard deviation is AlgoAlpha's original contribution to the TradingView community.
Enhancements to the original concept include: mean reversion entry logic (vs breakout), immediate touch-based signals, multi-timeframe ATR volatility filtering, flexible position sizing (fixed/percentage/cash), cooldown period filtering, dual TP methods (fixed points vs channel percentage), automated strategy execution with exit management, and real-time position monitoring table.
DynamoSent DynamoSent Pro+ — Professional Listing (Preview)
— Adaptive Macro Sentiment (v6)
— Export, Adaptive Lookback, Confidence, Boxes, Heatmap + Dynamic OB/OS
Preview / Experimental build. I’m actively refining this tool—your feedback is gold.
If you spot edge cases, want new presets, or have market-specific ideas, please comment or DM me on TradingView.
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What it is
DynamoSent Pro+ is an adaptive, non-repainting macro sentiment engine that compresses VIX, DXY and a price-based activity proxy (e.g., SPX/sector ETF/your symbol) into a 0–100 sentiment line. It scales context by volatility (ATR%) and can self-calibrate with rolling quantile OB/OS. On top of that, it adds confidence scoring, a plain-English Context Coach, MTF agreement, exportable sentiment for other indicators, and a clean Light/Dark UI.
Why it’s different
• Adaptive lookback tracks regime changes: when volatility rises, we lengthen context; when it falls, we shorten—less whipsaw, more relevance.
• Dynamic OB/OS (quantiles) self-calibrates to each instrument’s distribution—no arbitrary 30/70 lines.
• MTF agreement + Confidence gate reduce false positives by highlighting alignment across timeframes.
• Exportable output: hidden plot “DynamoSent Export” can be selected as input.source in your other Pine scripts.
• Non-repainting rigor: all request.security() calls use lookahead_off + gaps_on; signals wait for bar close.
Key visuals
• Sentiment line (0–100), OB/OS zones (static or dynamic), optional TF1/TF2 overlays.
• Regime boxes (Overbought / Oversold / Neutral) that update live without repaint.
• Info Panel with confidence heat, regime, trend arrow, MTF readout, and Coach sentence.
• Session heat (Asia/EU/US) to match intraday behavior.
• Light/Dark theme switch in Inputs (auto-contrasted labels & headers).
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How to use (examples & recipes)
1) EURUSD (swing / intraday blend)
• Preset: EURUSD 1H Swing
• Chart: 1H; TF1=1H, TF2=4H (default).
• Proxies: Defaults work (VIX=D, DXY=60, Proxy=D).
• Dynamic OB/OS: ON at 20/80; Confidence ≥ 55–60.
• Playbook:
• When sentiment crosses above 50 + margin with Δ ≥ signalK and MTF agreement ≥ 0.5, treat as trend breakout.
• In Oversold with rising Coach & TF agreement, take fade longs back toward mid-range.
• Alerts: Enable Breakout Long/Short and Fade; keep cooldown 8–12 bars.
2) SPY (daytrading)
• Preset: SPY 15m Daytrade; Chart: 15m.
• VIX (D) matters more; preset weights already favor it.
• Start with static 30/70; later try dynamic 25/75 for adaptive thresholds.
• Use Coach: in US session, when it says “Overbought + MTF agree → sell rallies / chase breakouts”, lean momentum-continuation after pullbacks.
3) BTCUSD (crypto, 24/7)
• Preset: BTCUSD 1H; Chart: 1H.
• DXY and BTC.D inform macro tone; keep Carry-forward ON to bridge sparse ticks.
• Prefer Dynamic OB/OS (15/85) for wider swings.
• Fade signals on weekend chop; Breakout when Confidence > 60 and MTF ≥ 1.0.
4) XAUUSD (gold, macro blend)
• Preset: XAUUSD 4H; Chart: 4H.
• Weights tilt to DXY and US10Y (handled by preset).
• Coach + MTF helps separate trend legs from news pops.
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Best practices
• Theme: Switch Light/Dark in Inputs; the panel adapts contrast automatically.
• Export: In another script → Source → DynamoSent Pro+ → DynamoSent Export. Build your own filters/strategies atop the same sentiment.
• Dynamic vs Static OB/OS:
• Static 30/70: fast, universal baseline.
• Dynamic (quantiles): instrument-aware; use 20/80 (default) or 15/85 for choppy markets.
• Confidence gate: Start at 50–60% to filter noise; raise when you want only A-grade setups.
• Adaptive Lookback: Keep ON. For ultra-liquid indices, you can switch it OFF and set a fixed lookback.
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Non-repainting & safety notes
• All request.security() calls use lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_off and gaps=barmerge.gaps_on.
• No forward references; signals & regime flips are confirmed on bar close.
• History-dependent funcs (ta.change, ta.percentile_linear_interpolation, etc.) are computed each bar (not conditionally).
• Adaptive lookback is clamped ≥ 1 to avoid lowest/highest errors.
• Missing-data warning triggers only when all proxies are NA for a streak; carry-forward can bridge small gaps without repaint.
⸻
Known limits & tips
• If a proxy symbol isn’t available on your plan/exchange, you’ll see the NA warning: choose a different symbol via Symbol Search, or keep Carry-forward ON (it defaults to neutral where needed).
• Intraday VIX is sparse—using Daily is intentional.
• Dynamic OB/OS needs enough history (see dynLenFloor). On short histories it gracefully falls back to static levels.
Thanks for trying the preview. Your comments drive the roadmap—presets, new proxies, extra alerts, and integrations.
