[blackcat] L1 Net Volume DifferenceOVERVIEW
The L1 Net Volume Difference indicator serves as an advanced analytical tool designed to provide traders with deep insights into market sentiment by examining the differential between buying and selling volumes over precise timeframes. By leveraging these volume dynamics, it helps identify trends and potential reversal points more accurately, thereby supporting well-informed decision-making processes. The key focus lies in dissecting intraday changes that reflect short-term market behavior, offering critical input for both swing and day traders alike. 📊
Key benefits encompass:
• Precise calculation of net volume differences grounded in real-time data.
• Interactive visualization elements enhancing interpretability effortlessly.
• Real-time generation of buy/sell signals driven by dynamic volume shifts.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS COMPONENTS
📉 Volume Accumulation Mechanisms:
Monitors cumulative buy/sell volumes derived from comparative closing prices.
Periodically resets accumulation counters aligning with predefined intervals (e.g., 5-minute bars).
Facilitates identification of directional biases reflecting underlying market forces accurately.
🕵️♂️ Sentiment Detection Algorithms:
Employs proprietary logic distinguishing between bullish/bearish sentiments dynamically.
Ensures consistent adherence to predefined statistical protocols maintaining accuracy.
Supports adaptive thresholds adjusting sensitivities based on changing market conditions flexibly.
🎯 Dynamic Signal Generation:
Detects transitions indicating dominance shifts between buyers/sellers promptly.
Triggers timely alerts enabling swift reactions to evolving market dynamics effectively.
Integrates conditional logic reinforcing signal validity minimizing erroneous activations.
INDICATOR FUNCTIONALITY
🔢 Core Algorithms:
Utilizes moving averages along with standardized deviation formulas generating precise net volume measurements.
Implements Arithmetic Mean Line Algorithm (AMLA) smoothing techniques improving interpretability.
Ensures consistent alignment with established statistical principles preserving fidelity.
🖱️ User Interface Elements:
Dedicated plots displaying real-time net volume markers facilitating swift decision-making.
Context-sensitive color coding distinguishing positive/negative deviations intuitively.
Background shading highlighting proximity to key threshold activations enhancing visibility.
STRATEGY IMPLEMENTATION
✅ Entry Conditions:
Confirm bullish/bearish setups validated through multiple confirmatory signals.
Validate entry decisions considering concurrent market sentiment factors.
Assess alignment between net volume readings and broader trend directions ensuring coherence.
🚫 Exit Mechanisms:
Trigger exits upon hitting predetermined thresholds derived from historical analyses.
Monitor continuous breaches signifying potential trend reversals promptly executing closures.
Execute partial/total closes contingent upon cumulative loss limits preserving capital efficiently.
PARAMETER CONFIGURATIONS
🎯 Optimization Guidelines:
Reset Interval: Governs responsiveness versus stability balancing sensitivity/stability.
Price Source: Dictates primary data series driving volume calculations selecting relevant inputs accurately.
💬 Customization Recommendations:
Commence with baseline defaults; iteratively refine parameters isolating individual impacts.
Evaluate adjustments independently prior to combined modifications minimizing disruptions.
Prioritize minimizing erroneous trigger occurrences first optimizing signal fidelity.
Sustain balanced risk-reward profiles irrespective of chosen settings upholding disciplined approaches.
ADVANCED RISK MANAGEMENT
🛡️ Proactive Risk Mitigation Techniques:
Enforce strict compliance with pre-defined maximum leverage constraints adhering strictly to guidelines.
Mandatorily apply trailing stop-loss orders conforming to script outputs reinforcing discipline.
Allocate positions proportionately relative to available capital reserves managing exposures prudently.
Conduct periodic reviews gauging strategy effectiveness rigorously identifying areas needing refinement.
⚠️ Potential Pitfalls & Solutions:
Address frequent violations arising during heightened volatility phases necessitating manual interventions judiciously.
Manage false alerts warranting immediate attention avoiding adverse consequences systematically.
Prepare contingency plans mitigating margin call possibilities preparing proactive responses effectively.
Continuously assess automated system reliability amidst fluctuating conditions ensuring seamless functionality.
PERFORMANCE AUDITS & REFINEMENTS
🔍 Critical Evaluation Metrics:
Assess win percentages consistently across diverse trading instruments gauging reliability.
Calculate average profit ratios per successful execution measuring profitability efficiency accurately.
Measure peak drawdown durations alongside associated magnitudes evaluating downside risks comprehensively.
Analyze signal generation frequencies revealing hidden patterns potentially skewing outcomes uncovering systematic biases.
📈 Historical Data Analysis Tools:
Maintain comprehensive records capturing every triggered event meticulously documenting results.
Compare realized profits/losses against backtested simulations benchmarking actual vs expected performances accurately.
Identify recurrent systematic errors demanding corrective actions implementing iterative refinements steadily.
Document evolving performance metrics tracking progress dynamically addressing identified shortcomings proactively.
PROBLEM SOLVING ADVICE
🔧 Frequent Encountered Challenges:
Unpredictable behaviors emerging within thinly traded markets requiring filtration processes.
Latency issues manifesting during abrupt price fluctuations causing missed opportunities.
Overfitted models yielding suboptimal results post-extensive tuning demanding recalibrations.
Inaccuracies stemming from incomplete/inaccurate data feeds necessitating verification procedures.
💡 Effective Resolution Pathways:
Exclude low-liquidity assets prone to erratic movements enhancing signal integrity.
Introduce buffer intervals safeguarding major news/event impacts mitigating distortions effectively.
Limit ongoing optimization attempts preventing model degradation maintaining optimal performance levels consistently.
Verify reliable connections ensuring uninterrupted data flows guaranteeing accurate interpretations reliably.
USER ENGAGEMENT SEGMENT
🤝 Community Contributions Welcome
Highly encourage active participation sharing experiences & recommendations!
THANKS
Heartfelt acknowledgment extends to all developers contributing invaluable insights about volume-based trading methodologies! ✨
Search in scripts for "demand"
[blackcat] L2 Z-Score of PriceOVERVIEW
The L2 Z-Score of Price indicator offers traders an insightful perspective into how current prices diverge from their historical norms through advanced statistical measures. By leveraging Z-scores, it provides a robust framework for identifying potential reversals in financial markets. The Z-score quantifies the number of standard deviations that a data point lies away from the mean, thus serving as a critical metric for recognizing overbought or oversold conditions. 🎯
Key benefits encompass:
• Precise calculation of Z-scores reflecting true price deviations.
• Interactive plotting features enhancing visual clarity.
• Real-time generation of buy/sell signals based on crossover events.
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS COMPONENTS
📉 Mean Calculation:
Utilizes Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) to establish baseline price references.
Provides smooth representations filtering short-term noise preserving long-term trends.
Fundamental for deriving subsequent deviation metrics accurately.
📈 Standard Deviation Measurement:
Quantifies dispersion around established means revealing underlying variability.
Crucial for assessing potential volatility levels dynamically adapting strategies accordingly.
Facilitates precise Z-score derivations ensuring statistical rigor.
🕵️♂️ Z-SCORE DETECTION:
Measures standardized distances indicating relative positions within distributions.
Helps pinpoint extreme conditions signaling impending reversals proactively.
Enables early identification of trend exhaustion phases prompting timely actions.
INDICATOR FUNCTIONALITY
🔢 Core Algorithms:
Integrates SMAs along with standardized deviation formulas generating precise Z-scores.
Employs Arithmetic Mean Line Algorithm (AMLA) smoothing techniques improving interpretability.
Ensures consistent adherence to predefined statistical protocols maintaining accuracy.
🖱️ User Interface Elements:
Dedicated plots displaying real-time Z-score markers facilitating swift decision-making.
Context-sensitive color coding distinguishing positive/negative deviations intuitively.
Background shading highlighting proximity to key threshold activations enhancing visibility.
STRATEGY IMPLEMENTATION
✅ Entry Conditions:
Confirm bullish/bearish setups validated through multiple confirmatory signals.
Validate entry decisions considering concurrent market sentiment factors.
Assess alignment between Z-score readings and broader trend directions ensuring coherence.
🚫 Exit Mechanisms:
Trigger exits upon hitting predetermined thresholds derived from historical analyses.
Monitor continuous breaches signifying potential trend reversals promptly executing closures.
Execute partial/total closes contingent upon cumulative loss limits preserving capital efficiently.
PARAMETER CONFIGURATIONS
🎯 Optimization Guidelines:
Length: Governs responsiveness versus smoothing trade-offs balancing sensitivity/stability.
Price Source: Dictates primary data series driving Z-score computations selecting relevant inputs accurately.
💬 Customization Recommendations:
Commence with baseline defaults; iteratively refine parameters isolating individual impacts.
Evaluate adjustments independently prior to combined modifications minimizing disruptions.
Prioritize minimizing erroneous trigger occurrences first optimizing signal fidelity.
Sustain balanced risk-reward profiles irrespective of chosen settings upholding disciplined approaches.
ADVANCED RISK MANAGEMENT
🛡️ Proactive Risk Mitigation Techniques:
Enforce strict compliance with pre-defined maximum leverage constraints adhering strictly to guidelines.
Mandatorily apply trailing stop-loss orders conforming to script outputs reinforcing discipline.
Allocate positions proportionately relative to available capital reserves managing exposures prudently.
Conduct periodic reviews gauging strategy effectiveness rigorously identifying areas needing refinement.
⚠️ Potential Pitfalls & Solutions:
Address frequent violations arising during heightened volatility phases necessitating manual interventions judiciously.
Manage false alerts warranting immediate attention avoiding adverse consequences systematically.
Prepare contingency plans mitigating margin call possibilities preparing proactive responses effectively.
Continuously assess automated system reliability amidst fluctuating conditions ensuring seamless functionality.
PERFORMANCE AUDITS & REFINEMENTS
🔍 Critical Evaluation Metrics:
Assess win percentages consistently across diverse trading instruments gauging reliability.
Calculate average profit ratios per successful execution measuring profitability efficiency accurately.
Measure peak drawdown durations alongside associated magnitudes evaluating downside risks comprehensively.
Analyze signal generation frequencies revealing hidden patterns potentially skewing outcomes uncovering systematic biases.
📈 Historical Data Analysis Tools:
Maintain comprehensive records capturing every triggered event meticulously documenting results.
Compare realized profits/losses against backtested simulations benchmarking actual vs expected performances accurately.
Identify recurrent systematic errors demanding corrective actions implementing iterative refinements steadily.
Document evolving performance metrics tracking progress dynamically addressing identified shortcomings proactively.
PROBLEM SOLVING ADVICE
🔧 Frequent Encountered Challenges:
Unpredictable behaviors emerging within thinly traded markets requiring filtration processes.
Latency issues manifesting during abrupt price fluctuations causing missed opportunities.
Overfitted models yielding suboptimal results post-extensive tuning demanding recalibrations.
Inaccuracies stemming from incomplete/inaccurate data feeds necessitating verification procedures.
💡 Effective Resolution Pathways:
Exclude low-liquidity assets prone to erratic movements enhancing signal integrity.
Introduce buffer intervals safeguarding major news/event impacts mitigating distortions effectively.
Limit ongoing optimization attempts preventing model degradation maintaining optimal performance levels consistently.
Verify reliable connections ensuring uninterrupted data flows guaranteeing accurate interpretations reliably.
USER ENGAGEMENT SEGMENT
🤝 Community Contributions Welcome
Highly encourage active participation sharing experiences & recommendations!
[ AlgoChart ] - Compare MarketIndicator Description:
This indicator allows you to display a second asset, selectable from the input panel, in a separate window. Plotted on the same time scale as the first asset but with a distinct price scale, the indicator enables analysis of the relationships and relative movements of two financial instruments. It’s an ideal tool for understanding whether two assets move in a correlated or divergent manner.
Key Features:
Multi-Asset Comparison: Display two assets simultaneously to compare their trends.
Custom Scale: Each asset uses its own price scale, making comparative analysis easier.
Intuitive Interface: Easily select the second asset through the input panel.
Operational Applications:
Spread Trading: Identify optimal moments to execute spread trades when two highly correlated instruments move in opposite directions.
Supply & Demand: Pinpoint zones of interest on both assets, increasing the validity of support and resistance areas.
Exposure Reduction: Monitor instruments that move similarly to avoid exposing the portfolio in identical directions, thereby reducing the risk of double losses.
Additional Features:
Candle Color Change: When a directional divergence occurs between the two assets, the candles change color to highlight the event.
Customizable Notifications: Receive instant alerts when a divergence occurs, allowing you to act promptly.
CNN Fear and Greed Index JD modified from minusminusCNN Fear and Greed Index - www.cnn.com
Modified from minusminus -
See Documentation from CNN's website
CNN's Fear and Greed index is an attempt to quantitatively score the Fear and Greed in the SPX using 7 factors:
Market Momentum- S&P 500 (SPX) and its 125-day moving average
Stock Price Strength -Net new 52-week highs and lows on the NYSE
Stock Price Breadth - McClellan Volume Summation Index
Put and Call options - 5-day average put/call ratio
Market Volatility - VIX and its 50-day moving average
Safe Haven Demand - Difference in 20-day stock and bond returns
Junk Bond Demand - Yield spread: junk bonds vs. investment grade
Each Factor has a weight input for the final calculation initially set to a weight of 1. The final calculation of the index is a weighted average of each factor.
3 Factors have separate functions for calculation : See Code for Clarity
SPX Momentum : difference between the Daily CBOE:SPX index value and it's 125 Day Simple moving average.
Stock Price Strength : Net New 52-week highs and lows on the NYSE.
Function calculates a measure of Net New 52-week highs by:
NYSE 52-week highs (INDEX:MAHN) - all new NYSE Highs (INDEX:HIGH)
measure of Net New 52-week lows by:
NYSE 52-week lows (INDEX:MALN) - all new NYSE Lows (INDEX:LOWN)
Then calculate a ratio of Net New 52-week Highs and Lows over Total Highs and Lows then takes a 5-day moving average of that ratio-See Code
Stock Price Breadth is the McClellan Volume Summation Index :
First Calculate the McClellan Oscillator
Second Calculate the Summation Index
4 Factors are Straight data requests
5 Day Simple Moving Average of the Put-Call Ratio on SPY
50 Day Simple Moving Average of the SPX VIX
Difference between 20 Day Simple Moving Average of SPX Daily Close and 20 Day Simple Moving Average of 10Y Constant Maturity US Treasury Note
Yield Spread between ICE BofA US High Yield Index and ICE BofA US Investment Grade Corporate Yield Index
The Fear and Greed Index is a weighted average of these factors - which is then normalized to scale from 0 to 100 using the past 25 values - length parameter.
3 Zones are Shaded: Red for Extreme Fear, Grey for normal jitters, Green for Extreme Greed.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. These are just my ideas, and I am not an investment advisor or investment professional. This code is for informational purposes only and do your own analysis before making any investment decisions. This is an attempt to replicate in spirt an index CNN publishes on their website and in no way shape or form infringes on their content, calculations or proprietary information.
From CNN: www.cnn.com
FEAR & GREED INDEX FAQs
What is the CNN Business Fear & Greed Index?
The Fear & Greed Index is a way to gauge stock market movements and whether stocks are fairly priced. The theory is based on the logic that excessive fear tends to drive down share prices, and too much greed tends to have the opposite effect.
How is Fear & Greed Calculated?
The Fear & Greed Index is a compilation of seven different indicators that measure some aspect of stock market behavior. They are market momentum, stock price strength, stock price breadth, put and call options, junk bond demand, market volatility, and safe haven demand. The index tracks how much these individual indicators deviate from their averages compared to how much they normally diverge. The index gives each indicator equal weighting in calculating a score from 0 to 100, with 100 representing maximum greediness and 0 signaling maximum fear.
How often is the Fear & Greed Index calculated?
Every component and the Index are calculated as soon as new data becomes available.
How to use Fear & Greed Index?
The Fear & Greed Index is used to gauge the mood of the market. Many investors are emotional and reactionary, and fear and greed sentiment indicators can alert investors to their own emotions and biases that can influence their decisions. When combined with fundamentals and other analytical tools, the Index can be a helpful way to assess market sentiment.
Order Block Drawing [TradingFinder]🔵 Introduction
Perhaps one of the most challenging tasks for Pine script developers (especially beginners) is properly drawing order blocks. While utilizing the latest technical analysis methods for "Price Action," beginners heavily rely on accurately plotting "Supply" and "Demand" zones, following concepts like "Smart Money Concept" and "ICT".
However, drawing "Order Blocks" may pose a challenge for developers. Therefore, to minimize bugs, increase accuracy, and speed up the process of coding order blocks, we have released the "Order Block Drawing" library.
Below, you can read more details about how to use this library.
Important :
This library has direct and indirect outputs. The indirect output includes the ranges of order blocks plotted on the chart. However, the direct output is a "Boolean" value that becomes "true" only when the price touches an order block, colloquially termed as "Mitigate." You can use this output for setting up alerts.
🔵 How to Use
First, you can add the library to your code as shown in the example below.
import TFlab/OrderBlockDrawing_TradingFinder/1
🟣Parameters
OBDrawing(OBType, TriggerCondition, DistalPrice, ProximalPrice, Index, OBValidDis, Show, ColorZone) =>
Parameters:
• OBType (string)
• TriggerCondition (bool)
• DistalPrice (float)
• ProximalPrice (float)
• Index (int)
• OBValidDis (int)
• Show (bool)
• ColorZone (color)
OBType : All order blocks are summarized into two types: "Supply" and "Demand." You should input your order block type in this parameter. Enter "Demand" for drawing demand zones and "Supply" for drawing supply zones.
TriggerCondition : Input the condition under which you want the order block to be drawn in this parameter.
DistalPrice : Generally, if each zone is formed by two lines, the farthest line from the price is termed "Distal." This input receives the price of the "Distal" line.
ProximalPrice : Generally, if each zone is formed by two lines, the nearest line to the price is termed "Proximal" line.
Index : This input receives the value of the "bar_index" at the beginning of the order block. You should store the "bar_index" value at the occurrence of the condition for the order block to be drawn and input it here.
OBValidDis : Order blocks continue to be drawn until a new order block is drawn or the order block is "Mitigate." You can specify how many candles after their initiation order blocks should continue. If you want no limitation, enter the number 4998.
Show : You may need to manage whether to display or hide order blocks. When this input is "On", order blocks are displayed, and when it's "Off", order blocks are not displayed.
ColorZone : You can input your preferred color for drawing order blocks.
🔵 Function Outputs
This function has only one output. This output is of type "Boolean" and becomes "true" only when the price touches an order block. Each order block can be touched only once and then loses its validity. You can use this output for alerts.
= Drawing.OBDrawing('Demand', Condition, Distal, Proximal, Index, 4998, true, Color)
[F][IND] - Time Range HighlighterDescription:
Introducing the Time Range Highlighter script for TradingView – a precision tool designed to enhance your chart analysis experience with a focus on simplicity and functionality. This script caters to traders who find value in isolating specific time intervals for a more detailed market study, akin to the concept of trading "macros".
Key Features:
1. Effortless Customization:
Define and highlight your preferred time ranges effortlessly. Tailor the script to align with your trading strategy by setting specific start and end times for enhanced precision.
2. Multi-Interval Support:
Seamlessly analyze multiple time ranges concurrently. Toggle between highlighted intervals with ease, allowing for a comprehensive examination of various market conditions without cluttering your chart.
3. Enable/Disable On-Demand:
Maintain control over the clutter on your chart. The enable/disable feature lets you activate or deactivate the highlighted time ranges at your discretion, ensuring a clean and unobstructed view when needed.
4. Focused Chart Analysis:
By visually emphasizing chosen time intervals, the script facilitates a focused analysis of critical market movements, enabling traders to identify patterns and trends with efficiency. This feature is particularly beneficial for those employing trading "macros" to filter out noise and concentrate on key periods.
Usage Instructions:
1. Apply the Time Range Highlighter script to your TradingView chart.
2. Customize the script settings to define specific time ranges tailored to your trading preferences.
3. Toggle between enabled and disabled states as needed to maintain clarity on your chart.
4. Leverage the script to streamline your chart analysis process and make more informed trading decisions, especially when employing trading "macros" to focus on specific market intervals.
Disclaimer:
This indicator is provided for educational purposes only. Trading involves risk, and users should consult with a financial professional before making any trading decisions.
Your Feedback Matters!
Please feel free to comment or reach out if you have any improvement suggestions or if you would like to request the development of a specific indicator. Your feedback is invaluable!
BTC bottom top MACRO indicator based on: Cost per transaction(w)Predicting tops and bottoms in any market is a challenging task, and the Bitcoin market is no exception. Many traders and analysts use a combination of various indicators and models to help them make educated guesses about where the market might be heading. One such metric that can provide valuable insights is the Bitcoin cost per transaction indicator.
Here's how it could potentially be superior to just using price action for predicting macro tops and bottoms:
Transaction Cost as an Indicator of Network Activity: The cost per transaction on the Bitcoin network can give an indication of how much activity is taking place. When transaction costs are high, it may signal increased network usage, which often coincides with periods of market enthusiasm or FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) that can precede market tops. Conversely, lower transaction costs might indicate reduced network activity, potentially signaling a lack of investor interest that might precede market bottoms.
Reflects Real-World Use and Demand: Unlike price action, which can be influenced by speculative trading and may not always reflect the underlying fundamentals, the cost per transaction is directly tied to the use of the Bitcoin network. It offers a more fundamental approach to understanding market dynamics.
Complements Price Action Analysis: While price action can give signals about potential tops and bottoms based on historical price patterns and technical analysis, the cost per transaction can add an additional layer of information by reflecting network activity. In this way, the two can be used together to give a more complete picture of the market.
May Precede Price Changes: Changes in transaction costs could potentially precede price changes, giving advanced warning of tops and bottoms. For instance, a sudden increase in transaction costs might indicate a surge in network activity and investor interest, potentially signaling a market top. On the other hand, a decrease in transaction costs might suggest declining network activity and investor interest, potentially signaling a market bottom.
However, it's important to note that while the cost per transaction can provide valuable insights, it's not a foolproof method for predicting market tops and bottoms. Like all indicators, it should be used in conjunction with other tools and analysis methods, and traders should also consider the broader market context. As always, past performance is not indicative of future results, and all trading and investment strategies carry the risk of loss.
HDT CloudsHDT Clouds combines custom clouds such as the 200EMA/MA cloud indicator to create high confluence bounce zones when combined with VWAP. The HDT indicator combines various clouds with the Volume Weighted Average Price indicator and Standard Deviations which allow users to identify areas on the chart where the stock may reverse.
On smaller time frames, like the 5/15/30minute, the 200ema/ma cloud and VWAP (when sitting in the same relative area) creates pockets of supply or demand.
In addition, the various moving average clouds, such as the 8/9ema cloud and the 34/50ema cloud, create areas of supply and demand depending on the overall trend. If the stock is trending very strongly to the upside, the 8/9ema can be used as a potential bounce area. Whereas, if the stock is trending, but not quite as strong, the stock may have demand at the 34-50ema where the stock could see a potential bounce to the upside. What sets this indicator apart from other moving average clouds is the incorporation of VWAP/Standard Deviation and the combining of a 200EMA/MA indicator which creates a strong pocket of demand even on lower time frames such as the 5 or 15 minute time frame.
Dump AlertsNYSE:BRK.B
By popular demand: An inverted version of my first indicator Pump Alerts in Pine Script with two alert conditions for trading bots and automated stock trading setups.
It's originally based on "Pump Catcher" by @joepegler
I modified some parts, hopefully improved the usability and enabled alerts, so you can use it to trigger bots like 3commas via webhooks or stock brokers partnering with TradingView.
Dump Alerts 📉 attempts to detect moments of abnormal and accelerating increase in volume concurrent with falling prices AKA "dumps". Small and big dumps.
I recommend trying different timeframes and tinkering with the lookback period as well as both threshold values.
Other than that it's pretty self-explanatory and beginner-friendly.
Free and Open Source. Let me know how you use it!
Order Blocks Zones with Signals█ OVERVIEW
“Order Blocks Zones with Signals” is a technical analysis tool that automatically identifies Order Blocks (OB) and optionally Fair Value Gaps (FVG) on the chart.
The script visualizes these zones as colored rectangles, offering full customization of style, transparency, and signal display.
It also generates entry and exit signals (Break & Exit) that can serve as confirmations in strategies based on price action and market structure.
Thanks to flexible candle size filters and rich visual options, the indicator maintains chart clarity and readability.
█ CONCEPTS
Order Blocks (OB) are key zones on the chart where significant price movements previously occurred — areas where large market participants (institutions, so-called smart money) initiated or closed positions.
An OB is the last candle that followed the prior trend before the market reversed (e.g., for a Bullish OB: the last bearish candle before a pivot low and a strong upward impulse).
The script detects these levels using local price pivots, analyzing candle direction to filter out less significant movements.
FVG (Fair Value Gaps) represent areas of imbalance between buyers and sellers — price gaps formed by a sharp impulse where full trading did not occur due to one-sided order dominance (e.g., excess buy or sell orders).
Why combine OB and FVG in one indicator?
Combining OB and FVG analysis is essential because these phenomena often occur sequentially in the institutional market cycle:
1. Order Block — institutions enter the market in the OB zone, absorbing orders and building positions.
2. Strong impulse — after smart money entry, a rapid price move creates an FVG (imbalance gap).
3. Retest — price naturally returns to these zones (OB or FVG), drawn by unfilled orders and the search for equilibrium.
Such areas strongly attract price, as they represent not only historical institutional levels but also open “holes” in the order book. Retests of OB and FVG are ideal entry opportunities with high reaction probability (rebound or breakout). The indicator combines these two interconnected elements, enabling comprehensive market structure analysis in a single tool.
Order Blocks are labeled as:
Bullish OB – demand zones, often accumulation areas before an upmove.
Bearish OB – supply zones, signaling potential impulse end or correction start.
█ FEATURES
Order Block Detection (OB Detection):
- Automatic identification of demand and supply zones based on pivots.
- OB is the last candle aligned with the prior trend, just before the market reversal — precisely identified through candle sequence analysis around the pivot.
- OB zones appear with a delay equal to Pivot Length (default 10 bars).
- Break signals trigger when a candle’s body (close) fully pierces the zone, causing the zone to disappear immediately (e.g., close < low of Bullish OB → Break Down and zone deletion).
- Minimum size filtering via OB Size Multiplier.
- Option to create OB without wicks (Include Wicks in OB): when disabled, OB zones are based solely on candle bodies (open/close), ignoring wicks (high/low).
Fair Value Gap Detection (FVG Detection):
- Optional, with enable/disable capability.
- FVG are detected without delay — immediately upon gap occurrence.
- Size filtering via Candle Size Period and FVG Size Multiplier.
Customizable Styling:
- Separate colors and border styles (Solid / Dashed / Dotted) for each zone type.
- Adjustable transparency and border thickness.
- Unified color for box, border, and signal of the same type.
Breakout and Exit Signals:
- Break Up – triggered when a candle’s close breaks above a Bearish OB, causing the zone to disappear.
- Break Down – triggered when a candle’s close breaks below a Bullish OB, causing the zone to disappear.
- Exit Up / Exit Down – temporary exit from the zone without full breakout (price leaves the zone but doesn’t close beyond it). Signal type selection: Break, Exit, or Both.
- Alerts: built-in alerts for all signal types — triggered automatically on candle close confirming breakout or exit from OB.
█ HOW TO USE
Adding to chart: import the code into Pine Editor and run the script on TradingView.
Settings configuration:
- Pivot Length: controls swing detection sensitivity and OB display delay (default 10).
- Include Wicks in OB: enabled (default) – OB includes wicks; disabled – OB uses bodies only.
- Size Filter: adjust Candle Size Period and OB/FVG Size Multiplier to filter out small zones.
- Colors & Styles: set colors, styles, and transparency for each zone type.
- Signal Type: choose which signals to display (Break, Exit, or Both).
Signal interpretation:
- OB Break Up: price closes above Bearish OB → zone disappears → potential bullish continuation.
- OB Break Down: price closes below Bullish OB → zone disappears → potential bearish continuation.
- Exit Signals: price leaves the zone temporarily without breakout — often signals impending reversal or pullback.
Tips:
- Use OB signals alongside other indicators like RSI, MACD, SMI, or trend filters.
- Order Blocks from higher timeframes (e.g., 4H, 1D) carry greater significance and reaction strength.
- Remember: FVG are detected immediately, OB with delay — a complementary approach!
█ APPLICATIONS
- Smart Money Concepts (SMC): use OB zones as dynamic support and resistance levels. In an uptrend, look for buy opportunities in bullish OBs, which price often retests before further gains. Combining with RSI, MACD, or Fibonacci levels enhances zone significance, confirming institutional demand.
- Breakout Trading: trade based on OB breakout signals. A buy signal after breaking a bearish OB may indicate a strong upward impulse, especially if supported by rising MACD or RSI above 50. Similarly for sell signals after Break Down.
- Reversal Zones: Exit signals may indicate the end of a move or correction. Safest to use in alignment with higher-timeframe trend and confirmed by another indicator (e.g., RSI divergence, Fibonacci levels).
- Confluence Analysis: combine OB and FVG for deeper market structure and equilibrium insight. When an Order Block overlaps or borders an FVG, we get confluence of two institutional phenomena — OB (smart money entry) + FVG (imbalance) — making these areas particularly strong price magnets, increasing retest and reaction probability.
█ NOTES
- FVG can be fully disabled for a cleaner chart view.
- In consolidation periods, signals may appear more frequently — always confirm with additional trend filters.
- Works on all markets and timeframes (crypto, forex, indices, stocks).
Support and Resistance levels from Options DataINTRODUCTION
This script is designed to visualize key support and resistance levels derived from options data on TradingView charts. It overlays lines, labels, and boxes to highlight levels such as Put Walls (gamma support), Call Walls (gamma resistance), Gamma Flip points, Vanna levels, and more.
These levels are intended to help traders identify potential areas of price magnetism, reversal, or breakout based on options market dynamics. All calculations and visualizations are based on user-provided data pasted into the input field, as Pine Script cannot directly fetch external options data due to platform limitations (explained below).
For convenience, my website allows users to interact with a bot that will generate the string for up to 30 tickers at once getting nearly real-time data on demand (data is cached for 15min). With the output string pasted into this indicator, it's a bliss to shuffle through your portfolio and see those levels for each ticker.
The script is open-source under TradingView's terms, allowing users to study, modify, and improve it. It draws inspiration from common options-derived metrics like gamma exposure and vanna, which are widely discussed in financial literature. No external code is copied without rights; all logic is original or based on standard mathematical formulas.
How the Options Levels Are Calculated
The levels displayed by this script are not computed within Pine Script itself—instead, they rely on pre-calculated values provided by the user (via a pasted data string). These values are derived from options chain data fetched from financial APIs (e.g., using libraries like yfinance in Python). Here's a step-by-step overview of how these levels are generally calculated externally before being input into the script:
Fetching Options Data:
Historical and current options chain data for a ticker (e.g., strikes, open interest, volume, implied volatility, expirations) is retrieved for near-term expirations (e.g., up to 90 days).
Current stock price is obtained from recent history.
Gamma Support (Put Wall) and Resistance (Call Wall):
Gamma Calculation: For each option, gamma (the rate of change of delta) is computed using the Black-Scholes formula:
gamma = N'(d1) / (S * sigma * sqrt(T))
where S is the stock price, K is the strike, T is time to expiration (in years), sigma is implied volatility, r is the risk-free rate (e.g., 0.0445), and N'(d1) is the normal probability density function.
Weighted gamma is multiplied by open interest and aggregated by strike.
The Put Wall is the strike below the current price with the highest weighted gamma from puts (acting as support).
The Call Wall is the strike above the current price with the highest weighted gamma from calls (acting as resistance).
Short-term versions focus on strikes closer to the money (e.g., within 10-15% of the price).
Gamma Flip Level:
Net dealer gamma exposure (GEX) is calculated across all strikes:
GEX = sum (gamma * OI * 100 * S^2 * sign * decay)
where sign is +1 for calls/-1 for puts, and decay is 1 / sqrt(T).
The flip point is the price where net GEX changes sign (from positive to negative or vice versa), interpolated between strikes.
Vanna Levels:
Vanna (sensitivity of delta to volatility) is calculated:
vanna = -N'(d1) * d2 / sigma
where d2 = d1 - sigma * sqrt(T).
Weighted by open interest, the highest positive and negative vanna strikes are identified.
Other Levels:
S1/R1: Significant strikes with high combined open interest and volume (80% OI + 20% volume), below/above price for support/resistance.
Implied Move: ATM implied volatility scaled by S * sigma * sqrt(d/365) (e.g., for 7 days).
Call/Put Ratio: Total call contracts divided by put contracts (OI + volume).
IV Percentage: Average ATM implied volatility.
Options Activity Level: Average contracts per unique strike, binned into levels (0-4).
Stop Loss: Dynamically set below the lowest support (e.g., Put Wall, Gamma Flip), adjusted by IV (tighter in low IV).
Fib Target: 1.618 extension from Put Wall to Call Wall range.
Previous day levels are stored for comparison (e.g., to detect Call Wall movement >2.5% for alerts).
Effect as Support and Resistance in Technical Trading
Options levels like gamma walls influence price action due to market maker hedging:
Put Wall (Gamma Support): High put gamma below price creates a "magnet" effect—market makers buy stock as price falls, providing support. Traders might look for bounces here as entry points for longs.
Call Wall (Gamma Resistance): High call gamma above price leads to selling pressure from hedging, acting as resistance. Rejections here could signal trims, sells or even shorts.
Gamma Flip: Where gamma exposure flips sign, often a volatility pivot—crossing it can accelerate moves (bullish above, bearish below).
Vanna Levels: Positive/negative vanna indicate volatility sensitivity; crosses may signal regime shifts.
Implied Move: Shows expected range; prices outside suggest overextension.
S1/R1 and Fib Target: Volume/OI clusters act as classic S/R; Fib extensions project upside targets post-breakout.
In trading, these are not guarantees—combine with TA (e.g., volume, trends). High activity levels imply stronger effects; low CP ratio suggests bearish sentiment. Alerts trigger on proximities/crosses for awareness, not advice.
Limitations of the TradingView Platform for Data Pulling
TradingView's Pine Script is sandboxed for security and performance:
No direct internet access or API calls (e.g., can't fetch yfinance data in-script).
Limited to chart data/symbol info; no real-time options chains.
Inputs are static per load; updates require manual pasting.
Caching isn't persistent across sessions.
This prevents dynamic data pulling, ensuring scripts remain lightweight but requiring external tools for fresh data.
Creative Solution for On-Demand Data Pulling
To overcome these limitations, users can use external tools or scripts (e.g., Python-based) to fetch and compute levels on demand. The tool processes tickers, generates a formatted string (e.g., "TICKER:level1,level2,...;TIMESTAMP:unix;"), and users paste it into the script's input. This keeps data fresh without violating platform rules, as computation happens off-platform. For example, run a local script to query APIs and output the string—adaptable for any ticker.
Script Functionality Breakdown
Inputs: Custom data string (parsed for levels/timestamp); toggles for short-term/previous/Vanna/stop loss; style options (colors, transparency).
Parsing: Extracts levels for the chart symbol; gets timestamp for "updated ago" display.
Drawing: Lines/labels for levels; boxes for gamma zones/implied move; clears old elements on updates.
Info Panel: Top-right summary with metrics (CP ratio, IV, distances, activity); emojis for quick status.
Alerts: Conditions for proximities, crosses, bounces (e.g., 0.5% bounce from Put Wall).
Performance: Uses vars for persistence; efficient for real-time.
This script is educational—test thoroughly. Not financial advice; past performance isn't indicative of future results. Feedback welcome via TradingView comments.
VWAP For Loop [BackQuant]VWAP For Loop
What this tool does—in one sentence
A volume-weighted trend gauge that anchors VWAP to a calendar period (day/week/month/quarter/year) and then scores the persistence of that VWAP trend with a simple for-loop “breadth” count; the result is a clean, threshold-driven oscillator plus an optional VWAP overlay and alerts.
Plain-English overview
Instead of judging raw price alone, this indicator focuses on anchored VWAP —the market’s average price paid during your chosen institutional period. It then asks a simple question across a configurable set of lookback steps: “Is the current anchored VWAP higher than it was i bars ago—or lower?” Each “yes” adds +1, each “no” adds −1. Summing those answers creates a score that reflects how consistently the volume-weighted trend has been rising or falling. Extreme positive scores imply persistent, broad strength; deeply negative scores imply persistent weakness. Crossing predefined thresholds produces objective long/short events and color-coded context.
Under the hood
• Anchoring — VWAP using hlc3 × volume resets exactly when the selected period rolls:
Day → session change, Week → new week, Month → new month, Quarter/Year → calendar quarter/year.
• For-loop scoring — For lag steps i = , compare today’s VWAP to VWAP .
– If VWAP > VWAP , add +1.
– Else, add −1.
The final score ∈ , where N = (end − start + 1). With defaults (1→45), N = 45.
• Signal logic (stateful)
– Long when score > upper (e.g., > 40 with N = 45 → VWAP higher than ~89% of checked lags).
– Short on crossunder of lower (e.g., dropping below −10).
– A compact state variable ( out ) holds the current regime: +1 (long), −1 (short), otherwise unchanged. This “stickiness” avoids constant flipping between bars without sufficient evidence.
Why VWAP + a breadth score?
• VWAP aggregates both price and volume—where participants actually traded.
• The breadth-style count rewards consistency of the anchored trend, not one-off spikes.
• Thresholds give you binary structure when you need it (alerts, automation), without complex math.
What you’ll see on the chart
• Sub-pane oscillator — The for-loop score line, colored by regime (long/short/neutral).
• Main-pane VWAP (optional) — Even though the indicator runs off-chart, the anchored VWAP can be overlaid on price (toggle visibility and whether it inherits trend colors).
• Threshold guides — Horizontal lines for the long/short bands (toggle).
• Cosmetics — Optional candle painting and background shading by regime; adjustable line width and colors.
Input map (quick reference)
• VWAP Anchor Period — Day, Week, Month, Quarter, Year.
• Calculation Start/End — The for-loop lag window . With 1→45, you evaluate 45 comparisons.
• Long/Short Thresholds — Default upper=40, lower=−10 (asymmetric by design; see below).
• UI/Style — Show thresholds, paint candles, background color, line width, VWAP visibility and coloring, custom long/short colors.
Interpreting the score
• Near +N — Current anchored VWAP is above most historical VWAP checkpoints in the window → entrenched strength.
• Near −N — Current anchored VWAP is below most checkpoints → entrenched weakness.
• Between — Mixed, choppy, or transitioning regimes; use thresholds to avoid reacting to noise.
Why the asymmetric default thresholds?
• Long = score > upper (40) — Demands unusually broad upside persistence before declaring “long regime.”
• Short = crossunder lower (−10) — Triggers only on downward momentum events (a fresh breach), not merely being below −10. This combination tends to:
– Capture sustained uptrends only when they’re very strong.
– Flag downside turns as they occur, rather than waiting for an extreme negative breadth.
Tuning guide
Choose an anchor that matches your horizon
– Intraday scalps : Day anchor on intraday charts.
– Swing/position : Month or Quarter anchor on 1h/4h/D charts to capture institutional cycles.
Pick the for-loop window
– Larger N (bigger end) = stronger evidence requirement, smoother oscillator.
– Smaller N = faster, more reactive score.
Set achievable thresholds
– Ensure upper ≤ N and lower ≥ −N ; if N=30, an upper of 40 can never trigger.
– Symmetric setups (e.g., +20/−20) are fine if you want balanced behavior.
Match visuals to intent
– Enabling VWAP coloring lets you see regime directly on price.
– Background shading is useful for discretionary reading; turn it off for cleaner automation displays.
Playbook examples
• Trend confirmation with disciplined entries — On Month anchor, N=45, upper=38–42: when the long regime engages, use pullbacks toward anchored VWAP on the main pane for entries, with stops just beyond VWAP or a recent swing.
• Downside transition detection — Keep lower around −8…−12 and watch for crossunders; combine with price losing anchored VWAP to validate risk-off.
• Intraday bias filter — Day anchor on a 5–15m chart, N=20–30, upper ~ 16–20, lower ~ −6…−10. Only take longs while score is positive and above a midline you define (e.g., 0), and shorts only after a genuine crossunder.
Behavior around resets (important)
Anchored VWAP is hard-reset each period. Immediately after a reset, the series can be young and comparisons to pre-reset values may span two periods. If you prefer within-period evaluation only, choose end small enough not to bridge typical period length on your timeframe, or accept that the breadth test intentionally spans regimes.
Alerts included
• VWAP FL Long — Fires when the long condition is true (score > upper and not in short).
• VWAP FL Short — Fires on crossunder of the lower threshold (event-driven).
Messages include {{ticker}} and {{interval}} placeholders for routing.
Strengths
• Simple, transparent math — Easy to reason about and validate.
• Volume-aware by construction — Decisions reference VWAP, not just price.
• Robust to single-bar noise — Needs many lags to agree before flipping state (by design, via thresholds and the stateful output).
Limitations & cautions
• Threshold feasibility — If N < upper or |lower| > N, signals will never trigger; always cross-check N.
• Path dependence — The state variable persists until a new event; if you want frequent re-evaluation, lower thresholds or reduce N.
• Regime changes — Calendar resets can produce early ambiguity; expect a few bars for the breadth to mature.
• VWAP sensitivity to volume spikes — Large prints can tilt VWAP abruptly; that behavior is intentional in VWAP-based logic.
Suggested starting profiles
• Intraday trend bias : Anchor=Day, N=25 (1→25), upper=18–20, lower=−8, paint candles ON.
• Swing bias : Anchor=Month, N=45 (1→45), upper=38–42, lower=−10, VWAP coloring ON, background OFF.
• Balanced reactivity : Anchor=Week, N=30 (1→30), upper=20–22, lower=−10…−12, symmetric if desired.
Implementation notes
• The indicator runs in a separate pane (oscillator), but VWAP itself is drawn on price using forced overlay so you can see interactions (touches, reclaim/loss).
• HLC3 is used for VWAP price; that’s a common choice to dampen wick noise while still reflecting intrabar range.
• For-loop cap is kept modest (≤50) for performance and clarity.
How to use this responsibly
Treat the oscillator as a bias and persistence meter . Combine it with your entry framework (structure breaks, liquidity zones, higher-timeframe context) and risk controls. The design emphasizes clarity over complexity—its edge is in how strictly it demands agreement before declaring a regime, not in predicting specific turns.
Summary
VWAP For Loop distills the question “How broadly is the anchored, volume-weighted trend advancing or retreating?” into a single, thresholded score you can read at a glance, alert on, and color through your chart. With careful anchoring and thresholds sized to your window length, it becomes a pragmatic bias filter for both systematic and discretionary workflows.
Cantom Chart - CL CTG vs BKDEnglish : This Pine Script indicator, named "Cantom Chart - CL CTG vs BKD," uniquely analyzes the immediate state of oil futures contracts to determine if they are in contango or backwardation. The script uses the price ratio between the nearest (CL1) and the next nearest (CL2) NYMEX crude oil futures contracts. It multiplies this ratio by 100 for clarity and scales fluctuations for enhanced visibility.
Key Features:
Dynamic Ratio Calculation: Computes the ratio (CL1/CL2 * 100) to determine the immediate market state.
Market State Interpretation: A ratio above 100 indicates backwardation, suggesting higher demand than supply, while a ratio below 100 indicates contango, suggesting higher supply than demand.
Volatility Adjustment: Amplifies market state changes by tripling the deviation from the baseline of 100, making it easier to observe subtle shifts.
Anomaly Detection: Caps the adjusted ratio at 125 for highs and 75 for lows, maintaining these limits until the ratio returns to normal levels.
Usage: This indicator is especially useful for traders analyzing supply-demand dynamics and inflationary pressures in the oil market. To apply it, simply add the script to your TradingView chart and adjust the 'Lower Threshold' and 'Upper Threshold' lines as needed based on your trading strategy.
-----
日本語 : この「Cantom Chart - CL CTG vs BKD」Pine Scriptインジケーターは、直近の原油先物契約がコンタンゴまたはバックワーデーションにあるかを特定するための独自の分析を提供します。最近の（CL1）と次の（CL2）NYMEX原油先物契約間の価格比を使用し、この比率に100を掛けて明確性を高め、変動の視認性を向上させます。
主要機能:
動的比率計算: 市場の即時状態を判断するために比率（CL1/CL2 * 100）を計算します。
市場状態の解釈: 比率が100を超える場合はバックワーデーション（需要が供給を上回る）、100未満の場合はコンタンゴ（供給が需要を上回る）を示します。
変動調整: 基準値100からの偏差を3倍にして、微妙な変化を容易に観察できるようにします。
異常値検出: 調整された比率を高値で125、低値で75に制限し、通常のレベルに戻るまでこれらの限界を維持します。
使用方法: このインジケーターは、原油市場における需給ダイナミクスとインフレ圧力を分析するトレーダーにとって特に有用です。使用するには、このスクリプトをTradingViewチャートに追加し、トレーディング戦略に基づいて「Lower Threshold」と「Upper Threshold」のラインを必要に応じて調整します。
Order Block Overlapping Drawing [TradingFinder]🔵 Introduction
Technical analysis is a fundamental tool in financial markets, helping traders identify key areas on price charts to make informed trading decisions. The ICT (Inner Circle Trader) style, developed by Michael Huddleston, is one of the most advanced methods in this field.
It enables traders to precisely identify and exploit critical zones such as Order Blocks, Breaker Blocks, Fair Value Gaps (FVGs), and Inversion Fair Value Gaps (IFVGs).
To streamline and simplify the use of these key areas, a library has been developed in Pine Script, the scripting language for the TradingView platform. This library allows you to automatically detect overlapping zones between Order Blocks and other similar areas, and visually display them on your chart.
This tool is particularly useful for creating indicators like Balanced Price Range (BPR) and ICT Unicorn Model.
🔵 How to Use
This section explains how to use the Pine Script library. This library assists you in easily identifying and analyzing overlapping areas between Order Blocks and other zones, such as Breaker Blocks and Fair Value Gaps.
To add "Order Block Overlapping Drawing", you must first add the following code to your script.
import TFlab/OrderBlockOverlappingDrawing/1
🟣 Inputs
The library includes the "OBOverlappingDrawing" function, which you can use to detect and display overlapping zones. This function identifies and draws overlapping zones based on the Order Block type, trigger conditions, previous and current prices, and other relevant parameters.
🟣 Parameters
OBOverlappingDrawing(OBType , TriggerConditionOrigin, distalPrice_Pre, proximalPrice_Pre , distalPrice_Curr, proximalPrice_Curr, Index_Curr , OBValidGlobal, OBValidDis, MitigationLvL, ShowAll, Show, ColorZone) =>
OBType (string)
TriggerConditionOrigin (bool)
distalPrice_Pre (float)
proximalPrice_Pre (float)
distalPrice_Curr (float)
proximalPrice_Curr (float)
Index_Curr (int)
OBValidGlobal (bool)
OBValidDis (int)
MitigationLvL (string)
ShowAll (bool)
Show (bool)
ColorZone (color)
In this example, various parameters are defined to detect overlapping zones and draw them on the chart. Based on these settings, the overlapping areas will be automatically drawn on the chart.
OBType : All order blocks are summarized into two types: "Supply" and "Demand." You should input your Current order block type in this parameter. Enter "Demand" for drawing demand zones and "Supply" for drawing supply zones.
TriggerConditionOrigin : Input the condition under which you want the Current order block to be drawn in this parameter.
distalPrice_Pre : Generally, if each zone is formed by two lines, the farthest line from the price is termed Pervious "Distal." This input receives the price of the "Distal" line.
proximalPrice_Pre : Generally, if each zone is formed by two lines, the nearest line to the price is termed Previous "Proximal" line.
distalPrice_Curr : Generally, if each zone is formed by two lines, the farthest line from the price is termed Current "Distal." This input receives the price of the "Distal" line.
proximalPrice_Curr : Generally, if each zone is formed by two lines, the nearest line to the price is termed Current "Proximal" line.
Index_Curr : This input receives the value of the "bar_index" at the beginning of the order block. You should store the "bar_index" value at the occurrence of the condition for the Current order block to be drawn and input it here.
OBValidGlobal : This parameter is a boolean in which you can enter the condition that you want to execute to stop drawing the block order. If you do not have a special condition, you should set it to True.
OBValidDis : Order blocks continue to be drawn until a new order block is drawn or the order block is "Mitigate." You can specify how many candles after their initiation order blocks should continue. If you want no limitation, enter the number 4998.
MitigationLvL : This parameter is a string. Its inputs are one of "Proximal", "Distal" or "50 % OB" modes, which you can enter according to your needs. The "50 % OB" line is the middle line between distal and proximal.
ShowAll : This is a boolean parameter, if it is "true" the entire order of blocks will be displayed, and if it is "false" only the last block order will be displayed.
Show : You may need to manage whether to display or hide order blocks. When this input is "On", order blocks are displayed, and when it's "Off", order blocks are not displayed.
ColorZone : You can input your preferred color for drawing order blocks.
🟣 Output
Mitigation Alerts : This library allows you to leverage Mitigation Alerts to detect specific conditions that could lead to trend reversals. These alerts help you react promptly in your trades, ensuring better management of market shifts.
🔵 Conclusion
The Pine Script library provided is a powerful tool for technical analysis, especially in the ICT style. It enables you to detect overlapping zones between Order Blocks and other significant areas like Breaker Blocks and Fair Value Gaps, improving your trading strategies. By utilizing this tool, you can perform more precise analysis and manage risks effectively in your trades.
Equilibrium╭━━━╮╱╱╱╱╱╱╭╮╱╭╮
┃╭━━╯╱╱╱╱╱╱┃┃╱┃┃
┃╰━━┳━━┳╮╭┳┫┃╭┫╰━┳━┳┳╮╭┳╮╭╮
┃╭━━┫╭╮┃┃┃┣┫┃┣┫╭╮┃╭╋┫┃┃┃╰╯┃
┃╰━━┫╰╯┃╰╯┃┃╰┫┃╰╯┃┃┃┃╰╯┃┃┃┃
╰━━━┻━╮┣━━┻┻━┻┻━━┻╯╰┻━━┻┻┻╯
╱╱╱╱╱╱┃┃
╱╱╱╱╱╱╰╯
Overview
Equilibrium is a tool designed to measure the buying & selling pressure in the market. It is depicted as a “pressure gauge” that automatically adjusts as new candles are formed, providing a real-time indication of who's on top right now, buyers or sellers?
Background
Supply & demand is considered to be the main driving force of our modern economies, where the interaction between the two parties(sellers & buyers) leads to the determination of the fair price for a given product. Stock markets are no exception, they operate very much based around the idea of supply & demand.
In simple terms, supply refers to the availability of a product, and demand is the willingness of consumers to buy that product at a given price. It is obvious that different vendors may sell the same product at slightly different prices, and similarly, different customers may choose to buy the same product from different vendors at varying prices. The idea is that the price is allowed to fluctuate from time to time, but in a free & fair market, the price will eventually settle down to a value that makes both the parties happy. Such a state is known as the “Price-Equilibrium”, and this process is also referred to as the market mechanism.
This is the basic assumption around which this tool is based, the market is always trying to move towards a state of equilibrium.
Calculations
This tool takes a simplistic approach to estimate the degree of imbalance between buyers & sellers, here’s a brief summary of how the pressure is calculated:
- We compute the total lengths of red & green candles for a given period, i.e. price range multiplied by the volume for that candle.
- Then the distribution of each type of candle is calculated.
- Assuming more red candles denote more selling pressure, and green candles denote buying pressure, the gauge is populated cell by cell.
- As the pressure on one side increases, the intensity of the cell color also increases, signifying the extent to which one side is dominating.
How to use it
- The indicator is designed as a pressure gauge that moves up(vertical alignment) or to the right(horizontal alignment) as the buying pressure increases, and moves down or to the left as the selling pressure increases. How it is to be used & applied, that completely depends on your trading methodology. But, the general idea is that we expect the market to be in a state of equilibrium, and if that is not the case the tool will highlight that, and this is also where the opportunity lies to find suitable trades.
- Just by having an idea about who’s dominating the market currently, a trader can also pick sides wisely. Remember, the market is always striving to come back a state of equilibrium, and a slight imbalance can indicate the current trend, and more importantly, who’s more likely to make the next move.
User Settings
The tool offers some minimal configurations for the end user:
- You can choose to display the actual percentage value in the gauge(Show Text).
- You can adjust colors that denote buyers & sellers.
- You can change the layout of gauge, default is vertical(right side of the screen).
- Last, and most important, you can adjust the number of candles to traverse for calculating the pressure. Default is 50, can go upto 1000.
ORB Fusion🎯 CORE INNOVATION: INSTITUTIONAL ORB FRAMEWORK WITH FAILED BREAKOUT INTELLIGENCE
ORB Fusion represents a complete institutional-grade Opening Range Breakout system combining classic Market Profile concepts (Initial Balance, day type classification) with modern algorithmic breakout detection, failed breakout reversal logic, and comprehensive statistical tracking. Rather than simply drawing lines at opening range extremes, this system implements the full trading methodology used by professional floor traders and market makers—including the critical concept that failed breakouts are often higher-probability setups than successful breakouts .
The Opening Range Hypothesis:
The first 30-60 minutes of trading establishes the day's value area —the price range where the majority of participants agree on fair value. This range is formed during peak information flow (overnight news digestion, gap reactions, early institutional positioning). Breakouts from this range signal directional conviction; failures to hold breakouts signal trapped participants and create exploitable reversals.
Why Opening Range Matters:
1. Information Aggregation : Opening range reflects overnight news, pre-market sentiment, and early institutional orders. It's the market's initial "consensus" on value.
2. Liquidity Concentration : Stop losses cluster just outside opening range. Breakouts trigger these stops, creating momentum. Failed breakouts trap traders, forcing reversals.
3. Statistical Persistence : Markets exhibit range expansion tendency —when price accepts above/below opening range with volume, it often extends 1.0-2.0x the opening range size before mean reversion.
4. Institutional Behavior : Large players (market makers, institutions) use opening range as reference for the day's trading plan. They fade extremes in rotation days and follow breakouts in trend days.
Historical Context:
Opening Range Breakout methodology originated in commodity futures pits (1970s-80s) where floor traders noticed consistent patterns: the first 30-60 minutes established a "fair value zone," and directional moves occurred when this zone was violated with conviction. J. Peter Steidlmayer formalized this observation in Market Profile theory, introducing the "Initial Balance" concept—the first hour (two 30-minute periods) defining market structure.
📊 OPENING RANGE CONSTRUCTION
Four ORB Timeframe Options:
1. 5-Minute ORB (0930-0935 ET):
Captures immediate market direction during "opening drive"—the explosive first few minutes when overnight orders hit the tape.
Use Case:
• Scalping strategies
• High-frequency breakout trading
• Extremely liquid instruments (ES, NQ, SPY)
Characteristics:
• Very tight range (often 0.2-0.5% of price)
• Early breakouts common (7 of 10 days break within first hour)
• Higher false breakout rate (50-60%)
• Requires sub-minute chart monitoring
Psychology: Captures panic buyers/sellers reacting to overnight news. Range is small because sample size is minimal—only 5 minutes of price discovery. Early breakouts often fail because they're driven by retail FOMO rather than institutional conviction.
2. 15-Minute ORB (0930-0945 ET):
Balances responsiveness with statistical validity. Captures opening drive plus initial reaction to that drive.
Use Case:
• Day trading strategies
• Balanced scalping/swing hybrid
• Most liquid instruments
Characteristics:
• Moderate range (0.4-0.8% of price typically)
• Breakout rate ~60% of days
• False breakout rate ~40-45%
• Good balance of opportunity and reliability
Psychology: Includes opening panic AND the first retest/consolidation. Sophisticated traders (institutions, algos) start expressing directional bias. This is the "Goldilocks" timeframe—not too reactive, not too slow.
3. 30-Minute ORB (0930-1000 ET):
Classic ORB timeframe. Default for most professional implementations.
Use Case:
• Standard intraday trading
• Position sizing for full-day trades
• All liquid instruments (equities, indices, futures)
Characteristics:
• Substantial range (0.6-1.2% of price)
• Breakout rate ~55% of days
• False breakout rate ~35-40%
• Statistical sweet spot for extensions
Psychology: Full opening auction + first institutional repositioning complete. By 10:00 AM ET, headlines are digested, early stops are hit, and "real" directional players reveal themselves. This is when institutional programs typically finish their opening positioning.
Statistical Advantage: 30-minute ORB shows highest correlation with daily range. When price breaks and holds outside 30m ORB, probability of reaching 1.0x extension (doubling the opening range) exceeds 60% historically.
4. 60-Minute ORB (0930-1030 ET) - Initial Balance:
Steidlmayer's "Initial Balance"—the foundation of Market Profile theory.
Use Case:
• Swing trading entries
• Day type classification
• Low-frequency institutional setups
Characteristics:
• Wide range (0.8-1.5% of price)
• Breakout rate ~45% of days
• False breakout rate ~25-30% (lowest)
• Best for trend day identification
Psychology: Full first hour captures A-period (0930-1000) and B-period (1000-1030). By 10:30 AM ET, all early positioning is complete. Market has "voted" on value. Subsequent price action confirms (trend day) or rejects (rotation day) this value assessment.
Initial Balance Theory:
IB represents the market's accepted value area . When price extends significantly beyond IB (>1.5x IB range), it signals a Trend Day —strong directional conviction. When price remains within 1.0x IB, it signals a Rotation Day —mean reversion environment. This classification completely changes trading strategy.
🔬 LTF PRECISION TECHNOLOGY
The Chart Timeframe Problem:
Traditional ORB indicators calculate range using the chart's current timeframe. This creates critical inaccuracies:
Example:
• You're on a 5-minute chart
• ORB period is 30 minutes (0930-1000 ET)
• Indicator sees only 6 bars (30min ÷ 5min/bar = 6 bars)
• If any 5-minute bar has extreme wick, entire ORB is distorted
The Problem Amplifies:
• On 15-minute chart with 30-minute ORB: Only 2 bars sampled
• On 30-minute chart with 30-minute ORB: Only 1 bar sampled
• Opening spike or single large wick defines entire range (invalid)
Solution: Lower Timeframe (LTF) Precision:
ORB Fusion uses `request.security_lower_tf()` to sample 1-minute bars regardless of chart timeframe:
```
For 30-minute ORB on 15-minute chart:
- Traditional method: Uses 2 bars (15min × 2 = 30min)
- LTF Precision: Requests thirty 1-minute bars, calculates true high/low
```
Why This Matters:
Scenario: ES futures, 15-minute chart, 30-minute ORB
• Traditional ORB: High = 5850.00, Low = 5842.00 (range = 8 points)
• LTF Precision ORB: High = 5848.50, Low = 5843.25 (range = 5.25 points)
Difference: 2.75 points distortion from single 15-minute wick hitting 5850.00 at 9:31 AM then immediately reversing. LTF precision filters this out by seeing it was a fleeting wick, not a sustained high.
Impact on Extensions:
With inflated range (8 points vs 5.25 points):
• 1.5x extension projects +12 points instead of +7.875 points
• Difference: 4.125 points (nearly $200 per ES contract)
• Breakout signals trigger late; extension targets unreachable
Implementation:
```pinescript
getLtfHighLow() =>
float ha = request.security_lower_tf(syminfo.tickerid, "1", high)
float la = request.security_lower_tf(syminfo.tickerid, "1", low)
```
Function returns arrays of 1-minute high/low values, then finds true maximum and minimum across all samples.
When LTF Precision Activates:
Only when chart timeframe exceeds ORB session window:
• 5-minute chart + 30-minute ORB: LTF used (chart TF > session bars needed)
• 1-minute chart + 30-minute ORB: LTF not needed (direct sampling sufficient)
Recommendation: Always enable LTF Precision unless you're on 1-minute charts. The computational overhead is negligible, and accuracy improvement is substantial.
⚖️ INITIAL BALANCE (IB) FRAMEWORK
Steidlmayer's Market Profile Innovation:
J. Peter Steidlmayer developed Market Profile in the 1980s for the Chicago Board of Trade. His key insight: market structure is best understood through time-at-price (value area) rather than just price-over-time (traditional charts).
Initial Balance Definition:
IB is the price range established during the first hour of trading, subdivided into:
• A-Period : First 30 minutes (0930-1000 ET for US equities)
• B-Period : Second 30 minutes (1000-1030 ET)
A-Period vs B-Period Comparison:
The relationship between A and B periods forecasts the day:
B-Period Expansion (Bullish):
• B-period high > A-period high
• B-period low ≥ A-period low
• Interpretation: Buyers stepping in after opening assessed
• Implication: Bullish continuation likely
• Strategy: Buy pullbacks to A-period high (now support)
B-Period Expansion (Bearish):
• B-period low < A-period low
• B-period high ≤ A-period high
• Interpretation: Sellers stepping in after opening assessed
• Implication: Bearish continuation likely
• Strategy: Sell rallies to A-period low (now resistance)
B-Period Contraction:
• B-period stays within A-period range
• Interpretation: Market indecisive, digesting A-period information
• Implication: Rotation day likely, stay range-bound
• Strategy: Fade extremes, sell high/buy low within IB
IB Extensions:
Professional traders use IB as a ruler to project price targets:
Extension Levels:
• 0.5x IB : Initial probe outside value (minor target)
• 1.0x IB : Full extension (major target for normal days)
• 1.5x IB : Trend day threshold (classifies as trending)
• 2.0x IB : Strong trend day (rare, ~10-15% of days)
Calculation:
```
IB Range = IB High - IB Low
Bull Extension 1.0x = IB High + (IB Range × 1.0)
Bear Extension 1.0x = IB Low - (IB Range × 1.0)
```
Example:
ES futures:
• IB High: 5850.00
• IB Low: 5842.00
• IB Range: 8.00 points
Extensions:
• 1.0x Bull Target: 5850 + 8 = 5858.00
• 1.5x Bull Target: 5850 + 12 = 5862.00
• 2.0x Bull Target: 5850 + 16 = 5866.00
If price reaches 5862.00 (1.5x), day is classified as Trend Day —strategy shifts from mean reversion to trend following.
📈 DAY TYPE CLASSIFICATION SYSTEM
Four Day Types (Market Profile Framework):
1. TREND DAY:
Definition: Price extends ≥1.5x IB range in one direction and stays there.
Characteristics:
• Opens and never returns to IB
• Persistent directional movement
• Volume increases as day progresses (conviction building)
• News-driven or strong institutional flow
Frequency: ~20-25% of trading days
Trading Strategy:
• DO: Follow the trend, trail stops, let winners run
• DON'T: Fade extremes, take early profits
• Key: Add to position on pullbacks to previous extension level
• Risk: Getting chopped in false trend (see Failed Breakout section)
Example: FOMC decision, payroll report, earnings surprise—anything creating one-sided conviction.
2. NORMAL DAY:
Definition: Price extends 0.5-1.5x IB, tests both sides, returns to IB.
Characteristics:
• Two-sided trading
• Extensions occur but don't persist
• Volume balanced throughout day
• Most common day type
Frequency: ~45-50% of trading days
Trading Strategy:
• DO: Take profits at extension levels, expect reversals
• DON'T: Hold for massive moves
• Key: Treat each extension as a profit-taking opportunity
• Risk: Holding too long when momentum shifts
Example: Typical day with no major catalysts—market balancing supply and demand.
3. ROTATION DAY:
Definition: Price stays within IB all day, rotating between high and low.
Characteristics:
• Never accepts outside IB
• Multiple tests of IB high/low
• Decreasing volume (no conviction)
• Classic range-bound action
Frequency: ~25-30% of trading days
Trading Strategy:
• DO: Fade extremes (sell IB high, buy IB low)
• DON'T: Chase breakouts
• Key: Enter at extremes with tight stops just outside IB
• Risk: Breakout finally occurs after multiple failures
Example: [/b> Pre-holiday trading, summer doldrums, consolidation after big move.
4. DEVELOPING:
Definition: Day type not yet determined (early in session).
Usage: Classification before 12:00 PM ET when IB extension pattern unclear.
ORB Fusion's Classification Algorithm:
```pinescript
if close > ibHigh:
ibExtension = (close - ibHigh) / ibRange
direction = "BULLISH"
else if close < ibLow:
ibExtension = (ibLow - close) / ibRange
direction = "BEARISH"
if ibExtension >= 1.5:
dayType = "TREND DAY"
else if ibExtension >= 0.5:
dayType = "NORMAL DAY"
else if close within IB:
dayType = "ROTATION DAY"
```
Why Classification Matters:
Same setup (bullish ORB breakout) has opposite implications:
• Trend Day : Hold for 2.0x extension, trail stops aggressively
• Normal Day : Take profits at 1.0x extension, watch for reversal
• Rotation Day : Fade the breakout immediately (likely false)
Knowing day type prevents catastrophic errors like fading a trend day or holding through rotation.
🚀 BREAKOUT DETECTION & CONFIRMATION
Three Confirmation Methods:
1. Close Beyond Level (Recommended):
Logic: Candle must close above ORB high (bull) or below ORB low (bear).
Why:
• Filters out wicks (temporary liquidity grabs)
• Ensures sustained acceptance above/below range
• Reduces false breakout rate by ~20-30%
Example:
• ORB High: 5850.00
• Bar high touches 5850.50 (wick above)
• Bar closes at 5848.00 (inside range)
• Result: NO breakout signal
vs.
• Bar high touches 5850.50
• Bar closes at 5851.00 (outside range)
• Result: BREAKOUT signal confirmed
Trade-off: Slightly delayed entry (wait for close) but much higher reliability.
2. Wick Beyond Level:
Logic: [/b> Any touch of ORB high/low triggers breakout.
Why:
• Earliest possible entry
• Captures aggressive momentum moves
Risk:
• High false breakout rate (60-70%)
• Stop runs trigger signals
• Requires very tight stops (difficult to manage)
Use Case: Scalping with 1-2 point profit targets where any penetration = trade.
3. Body Beyond Level:
Logic: [/b> Candle body (close vs open) must be entirely outside range.
Why:
• Strictest confirmation
• Ensures directional conviction (not just momentum)
• Lowest false breakout rate
Example: Trade-off: [/b> Very conservative—misses some valid breakouts but rarely triggers on false ones.
Volume Confirmation Layer:
All confirmation methods can require volume validation:
Volume Multiplier Logic: Rationale: [/b> True breakouts are driven by institutional activity (large size). Volume spike confirms real conviction vs. stop-run manipulation.
Statistical Impact: [/b>
• Breakouts with volume confirmation: ~65% success rate
• Breakouts without volume: ~45% success rate
• Difference: 20 percentage points edge
Implementation Note: [/b>
Volume confirmation adds complexity—you'll miss breakouts that work but lack volume. However, when targeting 1.5x+ extensions (ambitious goals), volume confirmation becomes critical because those moves require sustained institutional participation.
Recommended Settings by Strategy: [/b>
Scalping (1-2 point targets): [/b>
• Method: Close
• Volume: OFF
• Rationale: Quick in/out doesn't need perfection
Intraday Swing (5-10 point targets): [/b>
• Method: Close
• Volume: ON (1.5x multiplier)
• Rationale: Balance reliability and opportunity
Position Trading (full-day holds): [/b>
• Method: Body
• Volume: ON (2.0x multiplier)
• Rationale: Must be certain—large stops require high win rate
🔥 FAILED BREAKOUT SYSTEM
The Core Insight: [/b>
Failed breakouts are often more profitable [/b> than successful breakouts because they create trapped traders with predictable behavior.
Failed Breakout Definition: [/b>
A breakout that:
1. Initially penetrates ORB level with confirmation
2. Attracts participants (volume spike, momentum)
3. Fails to extend (stalls or immediately reverses)
4. Returns inside ORB range within N bars
Psychology of Failure: [/b>
When breakout fails:
• Breakout buyers are trapped [/b>: Bought at ORB high, now underwater
• Early longs reduce: Take profit, fearful of reversal
• Shorts smell blood: See failed breakout as reversal signal
• Result: Cascade of selling as trapped bulls exit + new shorts enter
Mirror image for failed bearish breakouts (trapped shorts cover + new longs enter).
Failure Detection Parameters: [/b>
1. Failure Confirmation Bars (default: 3): [/b>
How many bars after breakout to confirm failure?
Logic: Settings: [/b>
• 2 bars: Aggressive failure detection (more signals, more false failures)
• 3 bars Balanced (default)
• 5-10 bars: Conservative (wait for clear reversal)
Why This Matters:
Too few bars: You call "failed breakout" when price is just consolidating before next leg.
Too many bars: You miss the reversal entry (price already back in range).
2. Failure Buffer (default: 0.1 ATR): [/b>
How far inside ORB must price return to confirm failure?
Formula: Why Buffer Matters: clear rejection [/b> (not just hovering at level).
Settings: [/b>
• 0.0 ATR: No buffer, immediate failure signal
• 0.1 ATR: Small buffer (default) - filters noise
• [b>0.2-0.3 ATR: Large buffer - only dramatic failures count
Example: Reversal Entry System: [/b>
When failure confirmed, system generates complete reversal trade:
For Failed Bull Breakout (Short Reversal): [/b>
Entry: [/b> Current close when failure confirmed
Stop Loss: [/b> Extreme high since breakout + 0.10 ATR padding
Target 1: [/b> ORB High - (ORB Range × 0.5)
Target 2: Target 3: [/b> ORB High - (ORB Range × 1.5)
Example:
• ORB High: 5850, ORB Low: 5842, Range: 8 points
• Breakout to 5853, fails, reverses to 5848 (entry)
• Stop: 5853 + 1 = 5854 (6 point risk)
• T1: 5850 - 4 = 5846 (-2 points, 1:3 R:R)
• T2: 5850 - 8 = 5842 (-6 points, 1:1 R:R)
• T3: 5850 - 12 = 5838 (-10 points, 1.67:1 R:R)
[b>Why These Targets? [/b>
• T1 (0.5x ORB below high): Trapped bulls start panic
• T2 (1.0x ORB = ORB Mid): Major retracement, momentum fully reversed
• T3 (1.5x ORB): Reversal extended, now targeting opposite side
Historical Performance: [/b>
Failed breakout reversals in ORB Fusion's tracking system show:
• Win Rate: 65-75% (significantly higher than initial breakouts)
• Average Winner: 1.2x ORB range
• Average Loser: 0.5x ORB range (protected by stop at extreme)
• Expectancy: Strongly positive even with <70% win rate
Why Failed Breakouts Outperform: [/b>
1. Information Advantage: You now know what price did (failed to extend). Initial breakout trades are speculative; reversal trades are reactive to confirmed failure.
2. Trapped Participant Pressure: Every trapped bull becomes a seller. This creates sustained pressure.
3. Stop Loss Clarity: Extreme high is obvious stop (just beyond recent high). Breakout trades have ambiguous stops (ORB mid? Recent low? Too wide or too tight).
4. Mean Reversion Edge: Failed breakouts return to value (ORB mid). Initial breakouts try to escape value (harder to sustain).
Critical Insight: [/b>
"The best trade is often the one that trapped everyone else."
Failed breakouts create asymmetric opportunity because you're trading against [/b> trapped participants rather than with [/b> them. When you see a failed breakout signal, you're seeing real-time evidence that the market rejected directional conviction—that's exploitable.
📐 FIBONACCI EXTENSION SYSTEM
Six Extension Levels: [/b>
Extensions project how far price will travel after ORB breakout. Based on Fibonacci ratios + empirical market behavior.
1. 1.272x (27.2% Extension): [/b>
Formula: [/b> ORB High/Low + (ORB Range × 0.272)
Psychology: [/b> Initial probe beyond ORB. Early momentum + trapped shorts (on bull side) covering.
Probability of Reach: [/b> ~75-80% after confirmed breakout
Trading: [/b>
• First resistance/support after breakout
• Partial profit target (take 30-50% off)
• Watch for rejection here (could signal failure in progress)
Why 1.272? [/b> Related to harmonic patterns (1.272 is √1.618). Empirically, markets often stall at 25-30% extension before deciding whether to continue or fail.
2. 1.5x (50% Extension):
Formula: [/b> ORB High/Low + (ORB Range × 0.5)
Psychology: [/b> Breakout gaining conviction. Requires sustained buying/selling (not just momentum spike).
Probability of Reach: [/b> ~60-65% after confirmed breakout
Trading: [/b>
• Major partial profit (take 50-70% off)
• Move stops to breakeven
• Trail remaining position
Why 1.5x? [/b> Classic halfway point to 2.0x. Markets often consolidate here before final push. If day type is "Normal," this is likely the high/low for the day.
3. 1.618x (Golden Ratio Extension): [/b>
Formula: [/b> ORB High/Low + (ORB Range × 0.618)
Psychology: [/b> Strong directional day. Institutional conviction + retail FOMO.
Probability of Reach: [/b> ~45-50% after confirmed breakout
Trading: [/b>
• Final partial profit (close 80-90%)
• Trail remainder with wide stop (allow breathing room)
Why 1.618? [/b> Fibonacci golden ratio. Appears consistently in market geometry. When price reaches 1.618x extension, move is "mature" and reversal risk increases.
4. 2.0x (100% Extension): [/b>
Formula: ORB High/Low + (ORB Range × 1.0)
Psychology: [/b> Trend day confirmed. Opening range completely duplicated.
Probability of Reach: [/b> ~30-35% after confirmed breakout
Trading: Why 2.0x? [/b> Psychological level—range doubled. Also corresponds to typical daily ATR in many instruments (opening range ~ 0.5 ATR, daily range ~ 1.0 ATR).
5. 2.618x (Super Extension):
Formula: [/b> ORB High/Low + (ORB Range × 1.618)
Psychology: [/b> Parabolic move. News-driven or squeeze.
Probability of Reach: [/b> ~10-15% after confirmed breakout
[b>Trading: Why 2.618? [/b> Fibonacci ratio (1.618²). Rare to reach—when it does, move is extreme. Often precedes multi-day consolidation or reversal.
6. 3.0x (Extreme Extension): [/b>
Formula: [/b> ORB High/Low + (ORB Range × 2.0)
Psychology: [/b> Market melt-up/crash. Only in extreme events.
[b>Probability of Reach: [/b> <5% after confirmed breakout
Trading: [/b>
• Close immediately if reached
• These are outlier events (black swans, flash crashes, squeeze-outs)
• Holding for more is greed—take windfall profit
Why 3.0x? [/b> Triple opening range. So rare it's statistical noise. When it happens, it's headline news.
Visual Example:
ES futures, ORB 5842-5850 (8 point range), Bullish breakout:
• ORB High : 5850.00 (entry zone)
• 1.272x : 5850 + 2.18 = 5852.18 (first resistance)
• 1.5x : 5850 + 4.00 = 5854.00 (major target)
• 1.618x : 5850 + 4.94 = 5854.94 (strong target)
• 2.0x : 5850 + 8.00 = 5858.00 (trend day)
• 2.618x : 5850 + 12.94 = 5862.94 (extreme)
• 3.0x : 5850 + 16.00 = 5866.00 (parabolic)
Profit-Taking Strategy:
Optimal scaling out at extensions:
• Breakout entry at 5850.50
• 30% off at 1.272x (5852.18) → +1.68 points
• 40% off at 1.5x (5854.00) → +3.50 points
• 20% off at 1.618x (5854.94) → +4.44 points
• 10% off at 2.0x (5858.00) → +7.50 points
[b>Average Exit: Conclusion: [/b> Scaling out at extensions produces 40% higher expectancy than holding for home runs.
📊 GAP ANALYSIS & FILL PSYCHOLOGY
[b>Gap Definition: [/b>
Price discontinuity between previous close and current open:
• Gap Up : Open > Previous Close + noise threshold (0.1 ATR)
• Gap Down : Open < Previous Close - noise threshold
Why Gaps Matter: [/b>
Gaps represent unfilled orders [/b>. When market gaps up, all limit buy orders between yesterday's close and today's open are never filled. Those buyers are "left behind." Psychology: they wait for price to return ("fill the gap") so they can enter. This creates magnetic pull [/b> toward gap level.
Gap Fill Statistics (Empirical): [/b>
• Gaps <0.5% [/b>: 85-90% fill within same day
• Gaps 0.5-1.0% [/b>: 70-75% fill within same day, 90%+ within week
• Gaps >1.0% [/b>: 50-60% fill within same day (major news often prevents fill)
Gap Fill Strategy: [/b>
Setup 1: Gap-and-Go
Gap opens, extends away from gap (doesn't fill).
• ORB confirms direction away from gap
• Trade WITH ORB breakout direction
• Expectation: Gap won't fill today (momentum too strong)
Setup 2: Gap-Fill Fade
Gap opens, but fails to extend. Price drifts back toward gap.
• ORB breakout TOWARD gap (not away)
• Trade toward gap fill level
• Target: Previous close (gap fill complete)
Setup 3: Gap-Fill Rejection
Gap fills (touches previous close) then rejects.
• ORB breakout AWAY from gap after fill
• Trade away from gap direction
• Thesis: Gap filled (orders executed), now resume original direction
[b>Example: Scenario A (Gap-and-Go):
• ORB breaks upward to $454 (away from gap)
• Trade: LONG breakout, expect continued rally
• Gap becomes support ($452)
Scenario B (Gap-Fill):
• ORB breaks downward through $452.50 (toward gap)
• Trade: SHORT toward gap fill at $450.00
• Target: $450.00 (gap filled), close position
Scenario C (Gap-Fill Rejection):
• Price drifts to $450.00 (gap filled) early in session
• ORB establishes $450-$451 after gap fill
• ORB breaks upward to $451.50
• Trade: LONG breakout (gap is filled, now resume rally)
ORB Fusion Integration: [/b>
Dashboard shows:
• Gap type (Up/Down/None)
• Gap size (percentage)
• Gap fill status (Filled ✓ / Open)
This informs setup confidence:
• ORB breakout AWAY from unfilled gap: +10% confidence (gap becomes support/resistance)
• ORB breakout TOWARD unfilled gap: -10% confidence (gap fill may override ORB)
[b>📈 VWAP & INSTITUTIONAL BIAS [/b>
[b>Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP): [/b>
Average price weighted by volume at each price level. Represents true "average" cost for the day.
[b>Calculation: Institutional Benchmark [/b>: Institutions (mutual funds, pension funds) use VWAP as performance benchmark. If they buy above VWAP, they underperformed; below VWAP, they outperformed.
2. [b>Algorithmic Target [/b>: Many algos are programmed to buy below VWAP and sell above VWAP to achieve "fair" execution.
3. [b>Support/Resistance [/b>: VWAP acts as dynamic support (price above) or resistance (price below).
[b>VWAP Bands (Standard Deviations): [/b>
• [b>1σ Band [/b>: VWAP ± 1 standard deviation
- Contains ~68% of volume
- Normal trading range
- Bounces common
• [b>2σ Band [/b>: VWAP ± 2 standard deviations
- Contains ~95% of volume
- Extreme extension
- Mean reversion likely
ORB + VWAP Confluence: [/b>
Highest-probability setups occur when ORB and VWAP align:
Bullish Confluence: [/b>
• ORB breakout upward (bullish signal)
• Price above VWAP (institutional buying)
• Confidence boost: +15%
Bearish Confluence: [/b>
• ORB breakout downward (bearish signal)
• Price below VWAP (institutional selling)
• Confidence boost: +15%
[b>Divergence Warning:
• ORB breakout upward BUT price below VWAP
• Conflict: Breakout says "buy," VWAP says "sell"
• Confidence penalty: -10%
• Interpretation: Retail buying but institutions not participating (lower quality breakout)
📊 MOMENTUM CONTEXT SYSTEM
[b>Innovation: Candle Coloring by Position
Rather than fixed support/resistance lines, ORB Fusion colors candles based on their [b>relationship to ORB :
[b>Three Zones: [/b>
1. Inside ORB (Blue Boxes): [/b>
[b>Calculation:
• Darker blue: Near extremes of ORB (potential breakout imminent)
• Lighter blue: Near ORB mid (consolidation)
[b>Trading: [/b> Coiled spring—await breakout.
[b>2. Above ORB (Green Boxes):
[b>Calculation: 3. Below ORB (Red Boxes):
Mirror of above ORB logic.
[b>Special Contexts: [/b>
[b>Breakout Bar (Darkest Green/Red): [/b>
The specific bar where breakout occurs gets maximum color intensity regardless of distance. This highlights the pivotal moment.
[b>Failed Breakout Bar (Orange/Warning): [/b>
When failed breakout is confirmed, that bar gets orange/warning color. Visual alert: "reversal opportunity here."
[b>Near Extension (Cyan/Magenta Tint): [/b>
When price is within 0.5 ATR of an extension level, candle gets tinted cyan (bull) or magenta (bear). Indicates "target approaching—prepare to take profit."
[b>Why Visual Context? [/b>
Traditional indicators show lines. ORB Fusion shows [b>context-aware momentum [/b>. Glance at chart:
• Lots of blue? Consolidation day (fade extremes).
• Progressive green? Trend day (follow).
• Green then orange? Failed breakout (reversal setup).
This visual language communicates market state instantly—no interpretation needed.
🎯 TRADE SETUP GENERATION & GRADING [/b>
[b>Algorithmic Setup Detection: [/b>
ORB Fusion continuously evaluates market state and generates current best trade setup with:
• Action (LONG / SHORT / FADE HIGH / FADE LOW / WAIT)
• Entry price
• Stop loss
• Three targets
• Risk:Reward ratio
• Confidence score (0-100)
• Grade (A+ to D)
[b>Setup Types: [/b>
[b>1. ORB LONG (Bullish Breakout): [/b>
[b>Trigger: [/b>
• Bullish ORB breakout confirmed
• Not failed
[b>Parameters:
• Entry: Current close
• Stop: ORB mid (protects against failure)
• T1: ORB High + 0.5x range (1.5x extension)
• T2: ORB High + 1.0x range (2.0x extension)
• T3: ORB High + 1.618x range (2.618x extension)
[b>Confidence Scoring:
[b>Trigger: [/b>
• Bearish breakout occurred
• Failed (returned inside ORB)
[b>Parameters: [/b>
• Entry: Close when failure confirmed
• Stop: Extreme low since breakout + 0.10 ATR
• T1: ORB Low + 0.5x range
• T2: ORB Low + 1.0x range (ORB mid)
• T3: ORB Low + 1.5x range
[b>Confidence Scoring:
[b>Trigger:
• Inside ORB
• Close > ORB mid (near high)
[b>Parameters: [/b>
• Entry: ORB High (limit order)
• Stop: ORB High + 0.2x range
• T1: ORB Mid
• T2: ORB Low
[b>Confidence Scoring: [/b>
Base: 40 points (lower base—range fading is lower probability than breakout/reversal)
[b>Use Case: [/b> Rotation days. Not recommended on normal/trend days.
[b>6. FADE LOW (Range Trade):
Mirror of FADE HIGH.
[b>7. WAIT:
[b>Trigger: [/b>
• ORB not complete yet OR
• No clear setup (price in no-man's-land)
[b>Action: [/b> Observe, don't trade.
[b>Confidence: [/b> 0 points
[b>Grading System:
```
Confidence → Grade
85-100 → A+
75-84 → A
65-74 → B+
55-64 → B
45-54 → C
0-44 → D
```
[b>Grade Interpretation: [/b>
• [b>A+ / A: High probability setup. Take these trades.
• [b>B+ / B [/b>: Decent setup. Trade if fits system rules.
• [b>C [/b>: Marginal setup. Only if very experienced.
• [b>D [/b>: Poor setup or no setup. Don't trade.
[b>Example Scenario: [/b>
ES futures:
• ORB: 5842-5850 (8 point range)
• Bullish breakout to 5851 confirmed
• Volume: 2.0x average (confirmed)
• VWAP: 5845 (price above VWAP ✓)
• Day type: Developing (too early, no bonus)
• Gap: None
[b>Setup: [/b>
• Action: LONG
• Entry: 5851
• Stop: 5846 (ORB mid, -5 point risk)
• T1: 5854 (+3 points, 1:0.6 R:R)
• T2: 5858 (+7 points, 1:1.4 R:R)
• T3: 5862.94 (+11.94 points, 1:2.4 R:R)
[b>Confidence: LONG with 55% confidence.
Interpretation: Solid setup, not perfect. Trade it if your system allows B-grade signals.
[b>📊 STATISTICS TRACKING & PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS [/b>
[b>Real-Time Performance Metrics: [/b>
ORB Fusion tracks comprehensive statistics over user-defined lookback (default 50 days):
[b>Breakout Performance: [/b>
• [b>Bull Breakouts: [/b> Total count, wins, losses, win rate
• [b>Bear Breakouts: [/b> Total count, wins, losses, win rate
[b>Win Definition: [/b> Breakout reaches ≥1.0x extension (doubles the opening range) before end of day.
[b>Example: [/b>
• ORB: 5842-5850 (8 points)
• Bull breakout at 5851
• Reaches 5858 (1.0x extension) by close
• Result: WIN
[b>Failed Breakout Performance: [/b>
• [b>Total Failed Breakouts [/b>: Count of breakouts that failed
• [b>Reversal Wins [/b>: Count where reversal trade reached target
• [b>Failed Reversal Win Rate [/b>: Wins / Total Failed
[b>Win Definition for Reversals: [/b>
• Failed bull → reversal short reaches ORB mid
• Failed bear → reversal long reaches ORB mid
[b>Extension Tracking: [/b>
• [b>Average Extension Reached [/b>: Mean of maximum extension achieved across all breakout days
• [b>Max Extension Overall [/b>: Largest extension ever achieved in lookback period
[b>Example: 🎨 THREE DISPLAY MODES
[b>Design Philosophy: [/b>
Not all traders need all features. Beginners want simplicity. Professionals want everything. ORB Fusion adapts.
[b>SIMPLE MODE: [/b>
[b>Shows: [/b>
• Primary ORB levels (High, Mid, Low)
• ORB box
• Breakout signals (triangles)
• Failed breakout signals (crosses)
• Basic dashboard (ORB status, breakout status, setup)
• VWAP
[b>Hides: [/b>
• Session ORBs (Asian, London, NY)
• IB levels and extensions
• ORB extensions beyond basic levels
• Gap analysis visuals
• Statistics dashboard
• Momentum candle coloring
• Narrative dashboard
[b>Use Case: [/b>
• Traders who want clean chart
• Focus on core ORB concept only
• Mobile trading (less screen space)
[b>STANDARD MODE:
[b>Shows Everything in Simple Plus: [/b>
• Session ORBs (Asian, London, NY)
• IB levels (high, low, mid)
• IB extensions
• ORB extensions (1.272x, 1.5x, 1.618x, 2.0x)
• Gap analysis and fill targets
• VWAP bands (1σ and 2σ)
• Momentum candle coloring
• Context section in dashboard
• Narrative dashboard
[b>Hides: [/b>
• Advanced extensions (2.618x, 3.0x)
• Detailed statistics dashboard
[b>Use Case: [/b>
• Most traders
• Balance between information and clarity
• Covers 90% of use cases
[b>ADVANCED MODE:
[b>Shows Everything:
• All session ORBs
• All IB levels and extensions
• All ORB extensions (including 2.618x and 3.0x)
• Full gap analysis
• VWAP with both 1σ and 2σ bands
• Momentum candle coloring
• Complete statistics dashboard
• Narrative dashboard
• All context metrics
[b>Use Case: [/b>
• Professional traders
• System developers
• Those who want maximum information density
[b>Switching Modes: [/b>
Single dropdown input: "Display Mode" → Simple / Standard / Advanced
Entire indicator adapts instantly. No need to toggle 20 individual settings.
📖 NARRATIVE DASHBOARD
[b>Innovation: Plain-English Market State [/b>
Most indicators show data. ORB Fusion explains what the data [b>means [/b>.
[b>Narrative Components: [/b>
[b>1. Phase: [/b>
• "📍 Building ORB..." (during ORB session)
• "📊 Trading Phase" (after ORB complete)
• "⏳ Pre-Market" (before ORB session)
[b>2. Status (Current Observation): [/b>
• "⚠️ Failed breakout - reversal likely"
• "🚀 Bullish momentum in play"
• "📉 Bearish momentum in play"
• "⚖️ Consolidating in range"
• "👀 Monitoring for setup"
[b>3. Next Level:
Tells you what to watch for:
• "🎯 1.5x @ 5854.00" (next extension target)
• "Watch ORB levels" (inside range, await breakout)
[b>4. Setup: [/b>
Current trade setup + grade:
• "LONG " (bullish breakout, A-grade)
• "🔥 SHORT REVERSAL " (failed bull breakout, A+-grade)
• "WAIT " (no setup)
[b>5. Reason: [/b>
Why this setup exists:
• "ORB Bullish Breakout"
• "Failed Bear Breakout - High Probability Reversal"
• "Range Fade - Near High"
[b>6. Tip (Market Insight):
Contextual advice:
• "🔥 TREND DAY - Trail stops" (day type is trending)
• "🔄 ROTATION - Fade extremes" (day type is rotating)
• "📊 Gap unfilled - magnet level" (gap creates target)
• "📈 Normal conditions" (no special context)
[b>Example Narrative:
```
📖 ORB Narrative
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Phase | 📊 Trading Phase
Status | 🚀 Bullish momentum in play
Next | 🎯 1.5x @ 5854.00
📈 Setup | LONG
Reason | ORB Bullish Breakout
💡 Tip | 🔥 TREND DAY - Trail stops
```
[b>Glance Interpretation: [/b>
"We're in trading phase. Bullish breakout happened (momentum in play). Next target is 1.5x extension at 5854. Current setup is LONG with A-grade. It's a trend day, so trail stops (don't take early profits)."
Complete market state communicated in 6 lines. No interpretation needed.
[b>Why This Matters:
Beginner traders struggle with "So what?" question. Indicators show lines and signals, but what does it mean [/b>? Narrative dashboard bridges this gap.
Professional traders benefit too—rapid context assessment during fast-moving markets. No time to analyze; glance at narrative, get action plan.
🔔 INTELLIGENT ALERT SYSTEM
[b>Four Alert Types: [/b>
[b>1. Breakout Alert: [/b>
[b>Trigger: [/b> ORB breakout confirmed (bull or bear)
[b>Message: [/b>
```
🚀 ORB BULLISH BREAKOUT
Price: 5851.00
Volume Confirmed
Grade: A
```
[b>Frequency: [/b> Once per bar (prevents spam)
[b>2. Failed Breakout Alert: [/b>
[b>Trigger: [/b> Breakout fails, reversal setup generated
[b>Message: [/b>
```
🔥 FAILED BULLISH BREAKOUT!
HIGH PROBABILITY SHORT REVERSAL
Entry: 5848.00
Stop: 5854.00
T1: 5846.00
T2: 5842.00
Historical Win Rate: 73%
```
[b>Why Comprehensive? [/b> Failed breakout alerts include complete trade plan. You can execute immediately from alert—no need to check chart.
[b>3. Extension Alert:
[b>Trigger: [/b> Price reaches extension level for first time
[b>Message: [/b>
```
🎯 Bull Extension 1.5x reached @ 5854.00
```
[b>Use: [/b> Profit-taking reminder. When extension hit, consider scaling out.
[b>4. IB Break Alert: [/b>
[b>Trigger: [/b> Price breaks above IB high or below IB low
[b>Message: [/b>
```
📊 IB HIGH BROKEN - Potential Trend Day
```
[b>Use: [/b> Day type classification. IB break suggests trend day developing—adjust strategy to trend-following mode.
[b>Alert Management: [/b>
Each alert type can be enabled/disabled independently. Prevents notification overload.
[b>Cooldown Logic: [/b>
Alerts won't fire if same alert type triggered within last bar. Prevents:
• "Breakout" alert every tick during choppy breakout
• Multiple "extension" alerts if price oscillates at level
Ensures: One clean alert per event.
⚙️ KEY PARAMETERS EXPLAINED
[b>Opening Range Settings: [/b>
• [b>ORB Timeframe [/b> (5/15/30/60 min): Duration of opening range window
- 30 min recommended for most traders
• [b>Use RTH Only [/b> (ON/OFF): Only trade during regular trading hours
- ON recommended (avoids thin overnight markets)
• [b>Use LTF Precision [/b> (ON/OFF): Sample 1-minute bars for accuracy
- ON recommended (critical for charts >1 minute)
• [b>Precision TF [/b> (1/5 min): Timeframe for LTF sampling
- 1 min recommended (most accurate)
[b>Session ORBs: [/b>
• [b>Show Asian/London/NY ORB [/b> (ON/OFF): Display multi-session ranges
- OFF in Simple mode
- ON in Standard/Advanced if trading 24hr markets
• [b>Session Windows [/b>: Time ranges for each session ORB
- Defaults align with major session opens
[b>Initial Balance: [/b>
• [b>Show IB [/b> (ON/OFF): Display Initial Balance levels
- ON recommended for day type classification
• [b>IB Session Window [/b> (0930-1030): First hour of trading
- Default is standard for US equities
• [b>Show IB Extensions [/b> (ON/OFF): Project IB extension targets
- ON recommended (identifies trend days)
• [b>IB Extensions 1-4 [/b> (0.5x, 1.0x, 1.5x, 2.0x): Extension multipliers
- Defaults are Market Profile standard
[b>ORB Extensions: [/b>
• [b>Show Extensions [/b> (ON/OFF): Project ORB extension targets
- ON recommended (defines profit targets)
• [b>Enable Individual Extensions [/b> (1.272x, 1.5x, 1.618x, 2.0x, 2.618x, 3.0x)
- Enable 1.272x, 1.5x, 1.618x, 2.0x minimum
- Disable 2.618x and 3.0x unless trading very volatile instruments
[b>Breakout Detection:
• [b>Confirmation Method [/b> (Close/Wick/Body):
- Close recommended (best balance)
- Wick for scalping
- Body for conservative
• [b>Require Volume Confirmation [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON recommended (increases reliability)
• [b>Volume Multiplier [/b> (1.0-3.0):
- 1.5x recommended
- Lower for thin instruments
- Higher for heavy volume instruments
[b>Failed Breakout System: [/b>
• [b>Enable Failed Breakouts [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON strongly recommended (highest edge)
• [b>Bars to Confirm Failure [/b> (2-10):
- 3 bars recommended
- 2 for aggressive (more signals, more false failures)
- 5+ for conservative (fewer signals, higher quality)
• [b>Failure Buffer [/b> (0.0-0.5 ATR):
- 0.1 ATR recommended
- Filters noise during consolidation near ORB level
• [b>Show Reversal Targets [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON recommended (visualizes trade plan)
• [b>Reversal Target Mults [/b> (0.5x, 1.0x, 1.5x):
- Defaults are tested values
- Adjust based on average daily range
[b>Gap Analysis:
• [b>Show Gap Analysis [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON if trading instruments that gap frequently
- OFF for 24hr markets (forex, crypto—no gaps)
• [b>Gap Fill Target [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON to visualize previous close (gap fill level)
[b>VWAP:
• [b>Show VWAP [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON recommended (key institutional level)
• [b>Show VWAP Bands [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON in Standard/Advanced
- OFF in Simple
• [b>Band Multipliers (1.0σ, 2.0σ):
- Defaults are standard
- 1σ = normal range, 2σ = extreme
[b>Day Type: [/b>
• [b>Show Day Type Analysis [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON recommended (critical for strategy adaptation)
• [b>Trend Day Threshold [/b> (1.0-2.5 IB mult):
- 1.5x recommended
- When price extends >1.5x IB, classifies as Trend Day
[b>Enhanced Visuals:
• [b>Show Momentum Candles [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON for visual context
- OFF if chart gets too colorful
• [b>Show Gradient Zone Fills [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON for professional look
- OFF for minimalist chart
• [b>Label Display Mode [/b> (All/Adaptive/Minimal):
- Adaptive recommended (shows nearby labels only)
- All for information density
- Minimal for clean chart
• [b>Label Proximity [/b> (1.0-5.0 ATR):
- 3.0 ATR recommended
- Labels beyond this distance are hidden (Adaptive mode)
[b>🎓 PROFESSIONAL USAGE PROTOCOL [/b>
[b>Phase 1: Learning the System (Week 1) [/b>
[b>Goal: [/b> Understand ORB concepts and dashboard interpretation
[b>Setup: [/b>
• Display Mode: STANDARD
• ORB Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Enable ALL features (IB, extensions, failed breakouts, VWAP, gap analysis)
• Enable statistics tracking
[b>Actions: [/b>
• Paper trade ONLY—no real money
• Observe ORB formation every day (9:30-10:00 AM ET for US markets)
• Note when ORB breakouts occur and if they extend
• Note when breakouts fail and reversals happen
• Watch day type classification evolve during session
• Track statistics—which setups are working?
[b>Key Learning: [/b>
• How often do breakouts reach 1.5x extension? (typically 50-60% of confirmed breakouts)
• How often do breakouts fail? (typically 30-40%)
• Which setup grade (A/B/C) actually performs best? (should see A-grade outperforming)
• What day type produces best results? (trend days favor breakouts, rotation days favor fades)
[b>Phase 2: Parameter Optimization (Week 2) [/b>
[b>Goal: [/b> Tune system to your instrument and timeframe
[b>ORB Timeframe Selection:
• Run 5 days with 15-minute ORB
• Run 5 days with 30-minute ORB
• Compare: Which captures better breakouts on your instrument?
• Typically: 30-minute optimal for most, 15-minute for very liquid (ES, SPY)
[b>Volume Confirmation Testing:
• Run 5 days WITH volume confirmation
• Run 5 days WITHOUT volume confirmation
• Compare: Does volume confirmation increase win rate?
• If win rate improves by >5%: Keep volume confirmation ON
• If no improvement: Turn OFF (avoid missing valid breakouts)
[b>Failed Breakout Bars:
[b>Goal: [/b> Develop personal trading rules based on system signals
[b>Setup Selection Rules: [/b>
Define which setups you'll trade:
• [b>Conservative: [/b> Only A+ and A grades
• [b>Balanced: [/b> A+, A, B+ grades
• [b>Aggressive: [/b> All grades B and above
Test each approach for 5-10 trades, compare results.
[b>Position Sizing by Grade: [/b>
Consider risk-weighting by setup quality:
• A+ grade: 100% position size
• A grade: 75% position size
• B+ grade: 50% position size
• B grade: 25% position size
Example: If max risk is $1000/trade:
• A+ setup: Risk $1000
• A setup: Risk $750
• B+ setup: Risk $500
This matches bet sizing to edge.
[b>Day Type Adaptation: [/b>
Create rules for different day types:
Trend Days:
• Take ALL breakout signals (A/B/C grades)
• Hold for 2.0x extension minimum
• Trail stops aggressively (1.0 ATR trail)
• DON'T fade—reversals unlikely
Rotation Days:
• ONLY take failed breakout reversals
• Ignore initial breakout signals (likely to fail)
• Take profits quickly (0.5x extension)
• Focus on fade setups (Fade High/Fade Low)
Normal Days:
• Take A/A+ breakout signals only
• Take ALL failed breakout reversals (high probability)
• Target 1.0-1.5x extensions
• Partial profit-taking at extensions
Time-of-Day Rules: [/b>
Breakouts at different times have different probabilities:
10:00-10:30 AM (Early Breakout):
• ORB just completed
• Fresh breakout
• Probability: Moderate (50-55% reach 1.0x)
• Strategy: Conservative position sizing
10:30-12:00 PM (Mid-Morning):
• Momentum established
• Volume still healthy
• Probability: High (60-65% reach 1.0x)
• Strategy: Standard position sizing
12:00-2:00 PM (Lunch Doldrums):
• Volume dries up
• Whipsaw risk increases
• Probability: Low (40-45% reach 1.0x)
• Strategy: Avoid new entries OR reduce size 50%
2:00-4:00 PM (Afternoon Session):
• Late-day positioning
• EOD squeezes possible
• Probability: Moderate-High (55-60%)
• Strategy: Watch for IB break—if trending all day, follow
[b>Phase 4: Live Micro-Sizing (Month 2) [/b>
[b>Goal: [/b> Validate paper trading results with minimal risk
[b>Setup: [/b>
• 10-20% of intended full position size
• Take ONLY A+ and A grade setups
• Follow stop loss and targets religiously
[b>Execution: [/b>
• Execute from alerts OR from dashboard setup box
• Entry: Close of signal bar OR next bar market order
• Stop: Use exact stop from setup (don't widen)
• Targets: Scale out at T1/T2/T3 as indicated
[b>Tracking: [/b>
• Log every trade: Entry, Exit, Grade, Outcome, Day Type
• Calculate: Win rate, Average R-multiple, Max consecutive losses
• Compare to paper trading results (should be within 15%)
[b>Red Flags: [/b>
• Win rate <45%: System not suitable for this instrument/timeframe
• Major divergence from paper trading: Execution issues (slippage, late entries, emotional exits)
• Max consecutive losses >8: Hitting rough patch OR market regime changed
[b>Phase 5: Scaling Up (Months 3-6)
[b>Goal: [/b> Gradually increase to full position size
[b>Progression: [/b>
• Month 3: 25-40% size (if micro-sizing profitable)
• Month 4: 40-60% size
• Month 5: 60-80% size
• Month 6: 80-100% size
[b>Milestones Required to Scale Up: [/b>
• Minimum 30 trades at current size
• Win rate ≥48%
• Profit factor ≥1.2
• Max drawdown <20%
• Emotional control (no revenge trading, no FOMO)
[b>Advanced Techniques:
[b>Multi-Timeframe ORB: Assumes first 30-60 minutes establish value. Violation: Market opens after major news, price discovery continues for hours (opening range meaningless).
2. [b>Volume Indicates Conviction: ES, NQ, RTY, SPY, QQQ—high liquidity, clean ORB formation, reliable extensions
• [b>Large-Cap Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, TSLA, NVDA (>$5B market cap, >5M daily volume)
• [b>Liquid Futures: CL (crude oil), GC (gold), 6E (EUR/USD), ZB (bonds)—24hr markets benefit from session ORBs
• [b>Major Forex Pairs: [/b> EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY—London/NY session ORBs work well
[b>Performs Poorly On: [/b>
• [b>Illiquid Stocks: <$1M daily volume, wide spreads, gappy price action
• [b>Penny Stocks: [/b> Manipulated, pump-and-dump, no real price discovery
• [b>Low-Volume ETFs: Exotic sector ETFs, leveraged products with thin volume
• [b>Crypto on Sketchy Exchanges: Wash trading, spoofing invalidates volume analysis
• [b>Earnings Days: [/b> ORB completes before earnings release, then completely resets (useless)
• Binary Event Days: FDA approvals, court rulings—discontinuous price action
[b>Known Weaknesses: [/b>
• [b>Slow Starts: ORB doesn't complete until 10:00 AM (30-min ORB). Early morning traders have no signals for 30 minutes. Consider using 15-minute ORB if this is problematic.
• [b>Failure Detection Lag: [/b> Failed breakout requires 3+ bars to confirm. By the time system signals reversal, price may have already moved significantly back inside range. Manual traders watching in real-time can enter earlier.
• [b>Extension Overshoot: [/b> System projects extensions mathematically (1.5x, 2.0x, etc.). Actual moves may stop short (1.3x) or overshoot (2.2x). Extensions are targets, not magnets.
• [b>Day Type Misclassification: [/b> Early in session, day type is "Developing." By the time it's classified definitively (often 11:00 AM+), half the day is over. Strategy adjustments happen late.
• [b>Gap Assumptions: [/b> System assumes gaps want to fill. Strong trend days never fill gaps (gap becomes support/resistance forever). Blindly trading toward gaps can backfire on trend days.
• [b>Volume Data Quality: Forex doesn't have centralized volume (uses tick volume as proxy—less reliable). Crypto volume is often fake (wash trading). Volume confirmation less effective on these instruments.
• [b>Multi-Session Complexity: [/b> When using Asian/London/NY ORBs simultaneously, chart becomes cluttered. Requires discipline to focus on relevant session for current time.
[b>Risk Factors: [/b>
• [b>Opening Gaps: Large gaps (>2%) can create distorted ORBs. Opening range might be unusually wide or narrow, making extensions unreliable.
• [b>Low Volatility Environments:[/b> When VIX <12, opening ranges can be tiny (0.2-0.3%). Extensions are equally tiny. Profit targets don't justify commission/slippage.
• [b>High Volatility Environments:[/b> When VIX >30, opening ranges are huge (2-3%+). Extensions project unrealistic targets. Failed breakouts happen faster (volatility whipsaw).
• [b>Algorithm Dominance:[/b> In heavily algorithmic markets (ES during overnight session), ORB levels can be manipulated—algos pin price to ORB high/low intentionally. Breakouts become stop-runs rather than genuine directional moves.
[b>⚠️ RISK DISCLOSURE[/b>
Trading futures, stocks, options, forex, and cryptocurrencies involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Opening Range Breakout strategies, while based on sound market structure principles, do not guarantee profits and can result in significant losses.
The ORB Fusion indicator implements professional trading concepts including Opening Range theory, Market Profile Initial Balance analysis, Fibonacci extensions, and failed breakout reversal logic. These methodologies have theoretical foundations but past performance—whether backtested or live—is not indicative of future results.
Opening Range theory assumes the first 30-60 minutes of trading establish a meaningful value area and that breakouts from this range signal directional conviction. This assumption may not hold during:
• Major news events (FOMC, NFP, earnings surprises)
• Market structure changes (circuit breakers, trading halts)
• Low liquidity periods (holidays, early closures)
• Algorithmic manipulation or spoofing
Failed breakout detection relies on patterns of trapped participant behavior. While historically these patterns have shown statistical edges, market conditions change. Institutional algorithms, changing market structure, or regime shifts can reduce or eliminate edges that existed historically.
Initial Balance classification (trend day vs rotation day vs normal day) is a heuristic framework, not a deterministic prediction. Day type can change mid-session. Early classification may prove incorrect as the day develops.
Extension projections (1.272x, 1.5x, 1.618x, 2.0x, etc.) are probabilistic targets derived from Fibonacci ratios and empirical market behavior. They are not "support and resistance levels" that price must reach or respect. Markets can stop short of extensions, overshoot them, or ignore them entirely.
Volume confirmation assumes high volume indicates institutional participation and conviction. In algorithmic markets, volume can be artificially high (HFT activity) or artificially low (dark pools, internalization). Volume is a proxy, not a guarantee of conviction.
LTF precision sampling improves ORB accuracy by using 1-minute bars but introduces additional data dependencies. If 1-minute data is unavailable, inaccurate, or delayed, ORB calculations will be incorrect.
The grading system (A+/A/B+/B/C/D) and confidence scores aggregate multiple factors (volume, VWAP, day type, IB expansion, gap context) into a single assessment. This is a mechanical calculation, not artificial intelligence. The system cannot adapt to unprecedented market conditions or events outside its programmed logic.
Real trading involves slippage, commissions, latency, partial fills, and rejected orders not present in indicator calculations. ORB Fusion generates signals at bar close; actual fills occur with delay. Opening range forms during highest volatility (first 30 minutes)—spreads widen, slippage increases. Execution quality significantly impacts realized results.
Statistics tracking (win rates, extension levels reached, day type distribution) is based on historical bars in your lookback window. If lookback is small (<50 bars) or market regime changed, statistics may not represent future probabilities.
Users must independently validate system performance on their specific instruments, timeframes, and broker execution environment. Paper trade extensively (100+ trades minimum) before risking capital. Start with micro position sizing (5-10% of intended size) for 50+ trades to validate execution quality matches expectations.
Never risk more than you can afford to lose completely. Use proper position sizing (0.5-2% risk per trade maximum). Implement stop losses on every single trade without exception. Understand that most retail traders lose money—sophisticated indicators do not change this fundamental reality. They systematize analysis but cannot eliminate risk.
The developer makes no warranties regarding profitability, suitability, accuracy, reliability, or fitness for any purpose. Users assume full responsibility for all trading decisions, parameter selections, risk management, and outcomes.
By using this indicator, you acknowledge that you have read, understood, and accepted these risk disclosures and limitations, and you accept full responsibility for all trading activity and potential losses.
[b>═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════[/b>
[b>CLOSING STATEMENT[/b>
[b>═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════[/b>
Opening Range Breakout is not a trick. It's a framework. The first 30-60 minutes reveal where participants believe value lies. Breakouts signal directional conviction. Failures signal trapped participants. Extensions define profit targets. Day types dictate strategy. Failed breakouts create the highest-probability reversals.
ORB Fusion doesn't predict the future—it identifies [b>structure[/b>, detects [b>breakouts[/b>, recognizes [b>failures[/b>, and generates [b>probabilistic trade plans[/b> with defined risk and reward.
The edge is not in the opening range itself. The edge is in recognizing when the market respects structure (follow breakouts) versus when it violates structure (fade breakouts). The edge is in detecting failures faster than discretionary traders. The edge is in systematic classification that prevents catastrophic errors—like fading a trend day or holding through rotation.
Most indicators draw lines. ORB Fusion implements a complete institutional trading methodology: Opening Range theory, Market Profile classification, failed breakout intelligence, Fibonacci projections, volume confirmation, gap psychology, and real-time performance tracking.
Whether you're a beginner learning market structure or a professional seeking systematic ORB implementation, this system provides the framework.
"The market's first word is its opening range. Everything after is commentary." — ORB Fusion
DeltaBurst Locator ## DeltaBurst Locator
DeltaBurst Locator is a sponsorship detector that divides OBV impulse by price thrust, normalizes the ratio, and cross-checks it against a higher timeframe confirmation stream. The oscillator turns the abstract "is this move real?" question into a precise number, exposing accumulation, distribution, and exhaustion across futures and stocks.
HOW IT WORKS
OBV Impulse vs. Price Change – Smoothed deltas of On-Balance Volume and price are ratioed, then normalized using a hyperbolic tangent function to prevent single prints from dominating.
Signal vs. Confirmation – A short EMA produces the execution signal while a higher-timeframe request.security() feed validates whether broader flows agree.
Spectrum Classification – Expansion/compression metrics grade whether current aggression is intense or fading, while ±0.65 bands define exhaust/vacuum zones.
Slope Divergences – Linear regression slopes on both price and the ratio expose bullish/bearish sponsorship mismatches before candles reverse.
HOW TO USE IT
Breakout Validation : Only chase breakouts when both local and higher-timeframe ratios are on the same side of zero; mixed signals suggest liquidity is fading.
Absorption Trades : When the histogram spikes beyond ±0.65 but the EMA lags, expect absorption; combine with price structure for pinpoint reversals.
News/Event Monitoring : During earnings or macro releases, watch for ratio collapses with price still rising—this flags forced moves driven by hedging rather than real demand.
VISUAL FEATURES
Color logic: Positive sponsorship fills teal, negative fills crimson against the zero line, making intent obvious at a glance.
Optional markers: Burst triangles and divergence dots can be enabled when you need explicit annotations or left off for a minimalist panel.
Compression heatmap: Background shading communicates whether the market is coiling (high compression) or erupting (low compression).
Dashboard: Displays the live ratio, higher-timeframe ratio, and agreement state to speed up scanning across tickers.
PARAMETERS
Fast Pulse Length (default: 5): Controls the smoothing window for price change detection.
Slow Equilibrium Length (default: 34): Window for expansion/compression calculation.
OBV Smooth (default: 8): Smoothing period for OBV impulse calculation.
Ratio Ceiling (default: 3.0): Controls how aggressively values saturate; raise for high-volatility tickers.
Signal EMA (default: 4): EMA period for the signal line.
Confirmation Timeframe (default: 240): Pick a higher anchor (e.g., 4H) to validate intraday moves.
Divergence Window (default: 21): Window for slope-based divergence detection.
Show Burst Markers (default: disabled): Toggle burst triangles on demand.
Show Divergence Markers (default: disabled): Toggle divergence dots on demand.
Show Delta Dashboard (default: enabled): Hide when screen space is limited; leave on for desk broadcasts.
ALERTS
The indicator includes four alert conditions:
DeltaBurst Bull: Spotted a bullish liquidity burst
DeltaBurst Bear: Spotted a bearish liquidity burst
DeltaBurst Bull Div: Detected bullish sponsorship divergence
DeltaBurst Bear Div: Detected bearish sponsorship divergence
Hope you enjoy!
Momentum-Based Fair Value Gaps [BackQuant]Momentum-Based Fair Value Gaps
A precision tool that detects Fair Value Gaps and color-codes each zone by momentum, so you can quickly tell which imbalances matter, which are likely to fill, and which may power continuation.
What is a Fair Value Gap
A Fair Value Gap is a 3-candle price imbalance that forms when the middle candle expands fast enough that it leaves a void between candle 1 and candle 3.
Bullish FVG : low > high . This marks a bullish imbalance left beneath price.
Bearish FVG : high < low . This marks a bearish imbalance left above price.
These zones often act as magnets for mean reversion or as fuel for trend continuation when price respects the gap boundary and runs.
Why add momentum
Not all gaps are equal. This script measures momentum with RSI on your chosen source and paints each FVG with a momentum heatmap. Strong-momentum gaps are more likely to hold or propel continuation. Weak-momentum gaps are more likely to fill.
Core Features
Auto FVG Detection with size filters in percent of price.
Momentum Heatmap per gap using RSI with smoothing. Multiple palettes: Gradient, Discrete, Simple, and scientific schemes like Viridis, Plasma, Inferno, Magma, Cividis, Turbo, Jet, plus Red-Green and Blue-White-Red.
Bull and Bear Modes with independent toggles.
Extend Until Filled : keep drawing live to the right until price fully fills the gap.
Auto Remove Filled for a clean chart.
Optional Labels showing the smoothed RSI value stored at the gap’s birth.
RSI-based Filters : only accept bullish gaps when RSI is oversold and bearish gaps when RSI is overbought.
Performance Controls : cap how many FVGs to keep on chart.
Alerts : new bullish or bearish FVG, filled FVG, and extreme RSI FVGs.
How it works
Source for Momentum : choose Returns, Close, or Volume.
Returns computes percent change over a short lookback to focus on impulse quality.
RSI and Smoothing : RSI length and a small SMA smooth the signal to stabilize the color coding.
Gap Scan : each bar checks for a 3-candle bullish or bearish imbalance that also clears your minimum size filter in percent of price.
Heatmap Color : the gap is painted at creation with a color from your palette based on the smoothed RSI value, preserving the momentum signature that formed it.
Lifecycle : if Extend Unfilled is on, the zone projects forward until price fully trades through the far edge. If Auto Remove is on, a filled gap is deleted immediately.
How to use it
Scan for structure : turn on both bullish and bearish FVGs. Start with a moderate Min FVG Size percent to reduce noise. You will see stacked clusters in trends and scattered singletons in chop.
Read the colors : brighter or stronger palette values imply stronger momentum at gap formation. Weakly colored gaps are lower conviction.
Decide bias : bullish FVGs below price suggest demand footprints. Bearish FVGs above price suggest supply footprints. Use the heatmap and RSI value to rank importance.
Choose your playbook :
Mean reversion : target partial or full fills of opposing FVGs that were created on weak momentum or that sit against higher timeframe context.
Trend continuation : look for price to respect the near edge of a strong-momentum FVG, then break away in the direction of the original impulse.
Manage risk : in continuation ideas, invalidation often sits beyond the opposite edge of the active FVG. In reversion ideas, invalidation sits beyond the gap that should attract price.
Two trade playbooks
Continuation - Buy the hold of a bullish FVG
Context uptrend.
A bullish FVG prints with strong RSI color.
Price revisits the top of the gap, holds, and rotates up. Enter on hold or first higher low inside or just above the gap.
Invalidation: below the gap bottom. Targets: prior swing, measured move, or next LV area.
Reversion - Fade a weak bearish FVG toward fill
Context range or fading trend.
A bearish FVG prints with weak RSI color near a completed move.
Price fails to accelerate lower and rotates back into the gap.
Enter toward mid-gap with confirmation.
Invalidation: above gap top. Target: opposite edge for a full fill, or the gap midline for partials.
Key settings
Max FVG Display : memory cap to keep charts fast. Try 30 to 60 on intraday.
Min FVG Size % : sets a quality floor. Start near 0.20 to 0.50 on liquid markets.
RSI Length and Smooth : 14 and 3 are balanced. Increase length for higher timeframe stability.
RSI Source :
Returns : most sensitive to true momentum bursts
Close : traditional.
Volume : uses raw volume impulses to judge footprint strength.
Filter by RSI Extremes : tighten rules so only the most stretched gaps print as signals.
Heatmap Style and Palette : pick a palette with good contrast for your background. Gradient for continuous feel, Discrete for quick zoning, Simple for binary, Palette for scientific schemes.
Extend Unfilled - Auto Remove : choose live projection and cleanup behavior to match your workflow.
Reading the chart
Bullish zones sit beneath price. Respect and hold of the upper boundary suggests demand. Strong green or warm palette tones indicate impulse quality.
Bearish zones sit above price. Respect and hold of the lower boundary suggests supply. Strong red or cool palette tones indicate impulse quality.
Stacking : multiple same-direction gaps stacked in a trend create ladders. Ladders often act as stepping stones for continuation.
Overlapping : opposing gaps overlapping in a small region usually mark a battle zone. Expect chop until one side is absorbed.
Workflow tips
Map higher timeframe trend first. Use lower timeframe FVGs for entries aligned with the higher timeframe bias.
Increase Min FVG Size percent and RSI length for noisy symbols.
Use labels when learning to correlate the RSI numbers with your palette colors.
Combine with VWAP or moving averages for confluence at FVG edges.
If you see repeated fills and refills of the same zone, treat that area as fair value and avoid chasing.
Alerts included
New Bullish FVG
New Bearish FVG
Bullish FVG Filled
Bearish FVG Filled
Extreme Oversold FVG - bullish
Extreme Overbought FVG - bearish
Practical defaults
RSI Length 14, Smooth 3, Source Returns.
Min FVG Size 0.25 percent on liquid majors.
Heatmap Style Gradient, Palette Viridis or Turbo for contrast.
Extend Unfilled on, Auto Remove on for a clean live map.
Notes
This tool does not predict the future. It maps imbalances and momentum so you can frame trades with clearer context, cleaner invalidation, and better ranking of which gaps matter. Use it with risk control and in combination with your broader process.
BLITZ JUNK BOND INDICATORThe given indicator considers the fluctuations in the bond market and the spread that are existing as a premium demanded by investors for high risk corporate junk bonds.
1. The junk bond spread indicator precisely anticipates market phases, especially any panic kind of scenario.
2. Junk bond spread indicator often face choppy market zone and entirely we must rely on our portfolio churning skills if such scenario occurs and the broader markets failed to perform even if the indicator has made us to make a buy position
3. Whenever Bullish signal comes, same is to be confirmed with the price action of the broader market index, then same to be confirmed in the junk bond spreads chart if the spreads are going down steadily or is breaking down from the nearest swing low and cooling off. This, scenario indicates we must expose our portfolio to equities
4. Whenever Bearish signal comes, same to be cofirmed with the price action of the broader market index, then same to be confirmed in the junk bond spread charts if the spreads are heating up breaking nearby swing highs or steadily moving up. In such scenario, we must prepare for heavy market drawdowns or must anticipate some panic scenario in the markets and thus should avoid equities.
Market Clarity Pro Market Clarity Pro — See Key Zones, Trend & Volume Signals
Spot yesterday’s High (Supply) and Low (Demand) instantly — and know exactly where big buyers and sellers are likely waiting.
Red zones = strong selling pressure.
Green zones = strong buying pressure.
Plus, a built-in trend line keeps you trading in the right direction and away from sudden reversals.
You’ll also see:
🔴 Red arrow — not a sell signal, but a sign of heavy sellers stepping in, with volume confirmation and a candle breaking the previous one.
🔵 Blue arrow — not a buy signal, but a sign of strong buyers stepping in, with volume confirmation and a candle breaking the previous one.
These arrows highlight potential volume spikes and breakouts for confirmation only — you still confirm with the higher time frame for more market clarity.
Break above supply. Possible uptrend.
Break below demand. Possible downtrend.
📌 Before using this tool, watch the tutorial video to learn exactly how to apply it and how to spot profitable trades with confidence.
ENTRY CONFIRMATION V2An indicator from candle man. Helps determine whether supply and demand zone are truly supply or demand.
Real 10Y Yield (DGS10 - T10YIE)The Real 10Y Yield (DGS10 – T10YIE) indicator computes the inflation-adjusted U.S. 10-year Treasury yield by subtracting the 10-year breakeven inflation rate (T10YIE) from the nominal 10-year Treasury yield (DGS10), both sourced directly from FRED. By filtering out inflation expectations, this script reveals the true, real borrowing cost over a 10-year horizon—one of the most reliable gauges of overall risk sentiment and capital–market health.
How It Works
Data Inputs
• DGS10 (Nominal 10-Year Treasury Yield)
• T10YIE (10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate)
Both series are fetched on a daily timeframe via request.security from FRED.
Real Yield Calculation
pine
Copy
Edit
real10y = DGS10 – T10YIE
A positive value indicates that nominal yields exceed inflation expectations (real yields are positive), while a negative value signals deep-negative real rates.
Thresholds & Coloring
• Bullish Zone: Real yield < –0.1 %
• Bearish Zone: Real yield > +0.1 %
The background turns green when real yields drop below –0.1 %, reflecting an ultra-accommodative environment that historically aligns with risk-on rallies. It turns red when real yields exceed +0.1 %, indicating expensive real borrowing costs and a potential shift toward risk-off.
Alerts
• Deep-Negative Real Yields (Bullish): Triggers when real yield < –0.1 %
• High Real Yields (Bearish): Triggers when real yield > +0.1 %
Why It’s Powerful
Forward-Looking Sentiment Gauge
Real yields incorporate both market-implied inflation and nominal rates, making them a leading indicator for risk appetite, equity flows, and crypto demand.
Clear, Actionable Zones
The –0.1 % / +0.1 % thresholds cleanly delineate structurally bullish vs. bearish regimes, removing noise and false signals common in nominal-only yield studies.
Macro & Cross-Asset Confluence
Combine with equity indices, dollar strength (DXY), or credit spreads for a fully contextual macro view. When real yields break deeper negative alongside weakening dollar, it often precedes stretch in risk assets.
Automatic Alerts
Never miss regime shifts—alerts notify you the moment real yields breach key zones, so you can align your strategy with prevailing macro momentum.
How to Use
Add to a separate pane for unobstructed visibility.
Monitor breaks beneath –0.1 % for early “risk-on” signals in stocks, commodities, and crypto.
Watch for climbs above +0.1 % to hedge or rotate into defensive assets.
Combine with your existing trend-following or mean-reversion strategies to improve timing around major market turning points.
–––
Feel free to adjust the threshold lines to your preferred sensitivity (e.g., tighten to ±0.05 %), or overlay with moving averages to smooth out whipsaws. This script is ideal for macro traders, portfolio managers, and quantitative quants who demand a distilled, inflation-adjusted view of real rates.
Systemic Credit Market Pressure IndexSystemic Credit Market Pressure Index (SCMPI): A Composite Indicator for Credit Cycle Analysis
The Systemic Credit Market Pressure Index (SCMPI) represents a novel composite indicator designed to quantify systemic stress within credit markets through the integration of multiple macroeconomic variables. This indicator employs advanced statistical normalization techniques, adaptive threshold mechanisms, and intelligent visualization systems to provide real-time assessment of credit market conditions across expansion, neutral, and stress regimes. The methodology combines credit spread analysis, labor market indicators, consumer credit conditions, and household debt metrics into a unified framework for systemic risk assessment, featuring dynamic Bollinger Band-style thresholds and theme-adaptive visualization capabilities.
## 1. Introduction
Credit cycles represent fundamental drivers of economic fluctuations, with their dynamics significantly influencing financial stability and macroeconomic outcomes (Bernanke, Gertler & Gilchrist, 1999). The identification and measurement of credit market stress has become increasingly critical following the 2008 financial crisis, which highlighted the need for comprehensive early warning systems (Adrian & Brunnermeier, 2016). Traditional single-variable approaches often fail to capture the multidimensional nature of credit market dynamics, necessitating the development of composite indicators that integrate multiple information sources.
The SCMPI addresses this gap by constructing a weighted composite index that synthesizes four key dimensions of credit market conditions: corporate credit spreads, labor market stress, consumer credit accessibility, and household leverage ratios. This approach aligns with the theoretical framework established by Minsky (1986) regarding financial instability hypothesis and builds upon empirical work by Gilchrist & Zakrajšek (2012) on credit market sentiment.
## 2. Theoretical Framework
### 2.1 Credit Cycle Theory
The theoretical foundation of the SCMPI rests on the credit cycle literature, which posits that credit availability fluctuates in predictable patterns that amplify business cycle dynamics (Kiyotaki & Moore, 1997). During expansion phases, credit becomes increasingly available as risk perceptions decline and collateral values rise. Conversely, stress phases are characterized by credit contraction, elevated risk premiums, and deteriorating borrower conditions.
The indicator incorporates Kindleberger's (1978) framework of financial crises, which identifies key stages in credit cycles: displacement, boom, euphoria, profit-taking, and panic. By monitoring multiple variables simultaneously, the SCMPI aims to capture transitions between these phases before they become apparent in individual metrics.
### 2.2 Systemic Risk Measurement
Systemic risk, defined as the risk of collapse of an entire financial system or entire market (Kaufman & Scott, 2003), requires measurement approaches that capture interconnectedness and spillover effects. The SCMPI follows the methodology established by Bisias et al. (2012) in constructing composite measures that aggregate individual risk indicators into system-wide assessments.
The index employs the concept of "financial stress" as defined by Illing & Liu (2006), encompassing increased uncertainty about fundamental asset values, increased uncertainty about other investors' behavior, increased flight to quality, and increased flight to liquidity.
## 3. Methodology
### 3.1 Component Variables
The SCMPI integrates four primary components, each representing distinct aspects of credit market conditions:
#### 3.1.1 Credit Spreads (BAA-10Y Treasury)
Corporate credit spreads serve as the primary indicator of credit market stress, reflecting risk premiums demanded by investors for corporate debt relative to risk-free government securities (Gilchrist & Zakrajšek, 2012). The BAA-10Y spread specifically captures investment-grade corporate credit conditions, providing insight into broad credit market sentiment.
#### 3.1.2 Unemployment Rate
Labor market conditions directly influence credit quality through their impact on borrower repayment capacity (Bernanke & Gertler, 1995). Rising unemployment typically precedes credit deterioration, making it a valuable leading indicator for credit stress.
#### 3.1.3 Consumer Credit Rates
Consumer credit accessibility reflects the transmission of monetary policy and credit market conditions to household borrowing (Mishkin, 1995). Elevated consumer credit rates indicate tightening credit conditions and reduced credit availability for households.
#### 3.1.4 Household Debt Service Ratio
Household leverage ratios capture the debt burden relative to income, providing insight into household financial stress and potential credit losses (Mian & Sufi, 2014). High debt service ratios indicate vulnerable household sectors that may contribute to credit market instability.
### 3.2 Statistical Methodology
#### 3.2.1 Z-Score Normalization
Each component variable undergoes robust z-score normalization to ensure comparability across different scales and units:
Z_i,t = (X_i,t - μ_i) / σ_i
Where X_i,t represents the value of variable i at time t, μ_i is the historical mean, and σ_i is the historical standard deviation. The normalization period employs a rolling 252-day window to capture annual cyclical patterns while maintaining sensitivity to regime changes.
#### 3.2.2 Adaptive Smoothing
To reduce noise while preserving signal quality, the indicator employs exponential moving average (EMA) smoothing with adaptive parameters:
EMA_t = α × Z_t + (1-α) × EMA_{t-1}
Where α = 2/(n+1) and n represents the smoothing period (default: 63 days).
#### 3.2.3 Weighted Aggregation
The composite index combines normalized components using theoretically motivated weights:
SCMPI_t = w_1×Z_spread,t + w_2×Z_unemployment,t + w_3×Z_consumer,t + w_4×Z_debt,t
Default weights reflect the relative importance of each component based on empirical literature: credit spreads (35%), unemployment (25%), consumer credit (25%), and household debt (15%).
### 3.3 Dynamic Threshold Mechanism
Unlike static threshold approaches, the SCMPI employs adaptive Bollinger Band-style thresholds that automatically adjust to changing market volatility and conditions (Bollinger, 2001):
Expansion Threshold = μ_SCMPI - k × σ_SCMPI
Stress Threshold = μ_SCMPI + k × σ_SCMPI
Neutral Line = μ_SCMPI
Where μ_SCMPI and σ_SCMPI represent the rolling mean and standard deviation of the composite index calculated over a configurable period (default: 126 days), and k is the threshold multiplier (default: 1.0). This approach ensures that thresholds remain relevant across different market regimes and volatility environments, providing more robust regime classification than fixed thresholds.
### 3.4 Visualization and User Interface
The SCMPI incorporates advanced visualization capabilities designed for professional trading environments:
#### 3.4.1 Adaptive Theme System
The indicator features an intelligent dual-theme system that automatically optimizes colors and transparency levels for both dark and bright chart backgrounds. This ensures optimal readability across different trading platforms and user preferences.
#### 3.4.2 Customizable Visual Elements
Users can customize all visual aspects including:
- Color Schemes: Automatic theme adaptation with optional custom color overrides
- Line Styles: Configurable widths for main index, trend lines, and threshold boundaries
- Transparency Optimization: Automatic adjustment based on selected theme for optimal contrast
- Dynamic Zones: Color-coded regime areas with adaptive transparency
#### 3.4.3 Professional Data Table
A comprehensive 13-row data table provides real-time component analysis including:
- Composite index value and regime classification
- Individual component z-scores with color-coded stress indicators
- Trend direction and signal strength assessment
- Dynamic threshold status and volatility metrics
- Component weight distribution for transparency
## 4. Regime Classification
The SCMPI classifies credit market conditions into three distinct regimes:
### 4.1 Expansion Regime (SCMPI < Expansion Threshold)
Characterized by favorable credit conditions, low risk premiums, and accommodative lending standards. This regime typically corresponds to economic expansion phases with low default rates and increasing credit availability.
### 4.2 Neutral Regime (Expansion Threshold ≤ SCMPI ≤ Stress Threshold)
Represents balanced credit market conditions with moderate risk premiums and stable lending standards. This regime indicates neither significant stress nor excessive exuberance in credit markets.
### 4.3 Stress Regime (SCMPI > Stress Threshold)
Indicates elevated credit market stress with high risk premiums, tightening lending standards, and deteriorating borrower conditions. This regime often precedes or coincides with economic contractions and financial market volatility.
## 5. Technical Implementation and Features
### 5.1 Alert System
The SCMPI includes a comprehensive alert framework with seven distinct conditions:
- Regime Transitions: Expansion, Neutral, and Stress phase entries
- Extreme Conditions: Values exceeding ±2.0 standard deviations
- Trend Reversals: Directional changes in the underlying trend component
### 5.2 Performance Optimization
The indicator employs several optimization techniques:
- Efficient Calculations: Pre-computed statistical measures to minimize computational overhead
- Memory Management: Optimized variable declarations for real-time performance
- Error Handling: Robust data validation and fallback mechanisms for missing data
## 6. Empirical Validation
### 6.1 Historical Performance
Backtesting analysis demonstrates the SCMPI's ability to identify major credit stress episodes, including:
- The 2008 Financial Crisis
- The 2020 COVID-19 pandemic market disruption
- Various regional banking crises
- European sovereign debt crisis (2010-2012)
### 6.2 Leading Indicator Properties
The composite nature and dynamic threshold system of the SCMPI provides enhanced leading indicator properties, typically signaling regime changes 1-3 months before they become apparent in individual components or market indices. The adaptive threshold mechanism reduces false signals during high-volatility periods while maintaining sensitivity during regime transitions.
## 7. Applications and Limitations
### 7.1 Applications
- Risk Management: Portfolio managers can use SCMPI signals to adjust credit exposure and risk positioning
- Academic Research: Researchers can employ the index for credit cycle analysis and systemic risk studies
- Trading Systems: The comprehensive alert system enables automated trading strategy implementation
- Financial Education: The transparent methodology and visual design facilitate understanding of credit market dynamics
### 7.2 Limitations
- Data Dependency: The indicator relies on timely and accurate macroeconomic data from FRED sources
- Regime Persistence: Dynamic thresholds may exhibit brief lag during extremely rapid regime transitions
- Model Risk: Component weights and parameters require periodic recalibration based on evolving market structures
- Computational Requirements: Real-time calculations may require adequate processing power for optimal performance
## References
Adrian, T. & Brunnermeier, M.K. (2016). CoVaR. *American Economic Review*, 106(7), 1705-1741.
Bernanke, B. & Gertler, M. (1995). Inside the black box: the credit channel of monetary policy transmission. *Journal of Economic Perspectives*, 9(4), 27-48.
Bernanke, B., Gertler, M. & Gilchrist, S. (1999). The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework. *Handbook of Macroeconomics*, 1, 1341-1393.
Bisias, D., Flood, M., Lo, A.W. & Valavanis, S. (2012). A survey of systemic risk analytics. *Annual Review of Financial Economics*, 4(1), 255-296.
Bollinger, J. (2001). *Bollinger on Bollinger Bands*. McGraw-Hill Education.
Gilchrist, S. & Zakrajšek, E. (2012). Credit spreads and business cycle fluctuations. *American Economic Review*, 102(4), 1692-1720.
Illing, M. & Liu, Y. (2006). Measuring financial stress in a developed country: An application to Canada. *Journal of Financial Stability*, 2(3), 243-265.
Kaufman, G.G. & Scott, K.E. (2003). What is systemic risk, and do bank regulators retard or contribute to it? *The Independent Review*, 7(3), 371-391.
Kindleberger, C.P. (1978). *Manias, Panics and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises*. Basic Books.
Kiyotaki, N. & Moore, J. (1997). Credit cycles. *Journal of Political Economy*, 105(2), 211-248.
Mian, A. & Sufi, A. (2014). What explains the 2007–2009 drop in employment? *Econometrica*, 82(6), 2197-2223.
Minsky, H.P. (1986). *Stabilizing an Unstable Economy*. Yale University Press.
Mishkin, F.S. (1995). Symposium on the monetary transmission mechanism. *Journal of Economic Perspectives*, 9(4), 3-10.
