BALANCED Strategy: Intraday Pro + Smart DashboardWelcome to the BALANCED Strategy: Intraday Pro.
This all-in-one indicator is designed for Intraday traders looking to capture trend movements while effectively filtering out sideways market noise. It combines the power of Supertrend for direction, EMA 100 for the baseline trend, and rigorous validation via RSI and ADX.
The script also integrates a complete Risk Management system with targets based on the Golden Ratio (Fibonacci) and a real-time Dashboard.
⏳ Recommended Timeframes
This algorithm is optimized for Intraday volatility:
M5 (5 Minutes) ⭐️: Ideal for quick Scalping. The ADX filter is crucial here to avoid false signals.
M15 (15 Minutes) 🏆: The "Sweet Spot." It offers the best balance between signal frequency and trend reliability.
M30 / H1: For a "Swing Intraday" approach—calmer, fewer signals, but higher precision.
Not recommended for M1 (1 Minute) with default settings (too much noise).
🚀 How It Works
The algorithm follows a strict 3-step logic to generate high-quality signals:
1. Trend Identification (The Engine)
Supertrend: Determines the immediate direction.
EMA 100: Acts as a background trend filter. We only buy above and sell below the EMA.
2. Noise Filtering (Safety)
ADX (Average Directional Index): The signal is only validated if there is sufficient volatility (Configurable threshold, default 12) to avoid "chop markets" (flat markets).
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Strict momentum filter. Buy only if RSI > 50, Sell if RSI < 50.
3. Entry Confirmation (The Trigger)
The script doesn't just rely on a crossover. It waits for "Price Action" confirmation: the candle must close higher than the previous one (for Long) or lower (for Short) to validate the entry.
🛡️ Risk Management (Money Management)
This is the core strength of this tool. Upon signal validation, the script automatically calculates and plots:
Stop Loss (SL): Based on volatility (ATR). It places the stop at the recent Low/High with a safety padding.
Take Profit (TP): Two modes available:
Fibonacci Mode (Default): Targets the 1.618 extension (Golden Ratio) of the risk taken.
Fixed Ratio Mode: Targets a manual Risk/Reward ratio (e.g., 2.0).
📊 The Dashboard
Located at the bottom right, the smart dashboard provides vital info at a glance:
Signal Time: To check if the alert is fresh.
Type (LONG/SHORT): Color-coded (Green/Pink).
Tech Data: RSI and ADX values at the moment of the signal.
Exact Prices: Entry Level, Target (TP), and Stop Loss (SL).
⚙️ Configurable Settings
Sensitivity: Adjust the Supertrend factor (Default 2.0).
Filters: Toggle the RSI filter ON/OFF or adjust the ADX threshold.
Execution: Choose between Fibonacci Target (1.618) or a Manual Ratio.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This tool is a technical decision aid and does not constitute financial investment advice. Always use prudent risk management and backtest the indicator on your preferred assets before live use.
Search in scripts for "scalping"
Hyper Insight MA Strategy [Universal]Hyper Insight MA Strategy ** is a comprehensive trend-following engine designed for traders who require precision and flexibility. Unlike standard indicators that lock you into a single calculation method, this strategy serves as a "Universal Adapter," allowing you to **Mix & Match 13 different Moving Average types** for both the Fast and Slow trend lines independently.
Whether you need the smoothness of T3, the responsiveness of HMA, or the classic reliability of SMA, this script enables you to backtest thousands of combinations to find the perfect edge for your specific asset class.
---
🔬 Deep Dive: Calculation Logic of Included MAs
This strategy includes 13 distinct calculation methods. Understanding the math behind them will help you choose the right tool for your specific market conditions.
#### 1. Standard Averages
* **SMA (Simple Moving Average):** The unweighted mean of the previous $n$ data points.
* *Logic:* Treats every price point in the period with equal importance. Good for identifying long-term macro trends but reacts slowly to recent volatility.
* **WMA (Weighted Moving Average):** A linear weighted average.
* *Logic:* Assigns heavier weight to current data linearly (e.g., $1, 2, 3... n$). It reacts faster than SMA but is still relatively smooth.
* **SWMA (Symmetrically Weighted Moving Average):**
* *Logic:* Uses a fixed-length window (usually 4 bars) with symmetrical weights $ $. It prioritizes the center of the recent data window.
#### 2. Exponential & Lag-Reducing Averages
* **EMA (Exponential Moving Average):**
* *Logic:* Applies an exponential decay weighting factor. Recent prices have significantly more impact on the average than older prices, reducing lag compared to SMA.
* **RMA (Running Moving Average):** Also known as Wilder's Smoothing (used in RSI).
* *Logic:* It is essentially an EMA but with a slower alpha weight of $1/length$. It provides a very smooth, stable line that filters out noise effectively.
* **DEMA (Double Exponential Moving Average):**
* *Logic:* Calculated as $2 \times EMA - EMA(EMA)$. By subtracting the "lag" (the smoothed EMA) from the original EMA, DEMA provides a much faster reaction to price changes with less noise than a standard EMA.
* **TEMA (Triple Exponential Moving Average):**
* *Logic:* Calculated as $3 \times EMA - 3 \times EMA(EMA) + EMA(EMA(EMA))$. This effectively eliminates the lag inherent in single and double EMAs, making it an extremely fast-tracking indicator for scalping.
#### 3. Advanced & Adaptive Averages
* **HMA (Hull Moving Average):**
* *Logic:* A composite formula involving Weighted Moving Averages: ASX:WMA (2 \times Integer(n/2)) - WMA(n)$. The result is then smoothed by a $\sqrt{n}$ WMA.
* *Effect:* It eliminates lag almost entirely while managing to improve curve smoothness, solving the traditional trade-off between speed and noise.
* **ZLEMA (Zero Lag Exponential Moving Average):**
* *Logic:* This calculation attempts to remove lag by modifying the data source before smoothing. It calculates a "lag" value $(length-1)/2$ and applies an EMA to the data: $Source + (Source - Source )$. This creates a projection effect that tracks price tightly.
* **T3 (Tillson T3 Moving Average):**
* *Logic:* A complex smoothing technique that runs an EMA through a filter multiple times using a "Volume Factor" (set to 0.7 in this script).
* *Effect:* It produces a curve that is incredibly smooth and free of "overshoot," making it excellent for filtering out market chop.
* **ALMA (Arnaud Legoux Moving Average):**
* *Logic:* Uses a Gaussian distribution (bell curve) to assign weights. It allows the user to offset the moving average (moving the peak of the weight) to align it perfectly with the price, balancing smoothness and responsiveness.
* **LSMA (Least Squares Moving Average):**
* *Logic:* Calculates the endpoint of a Linear Regression line for the lookback period. It essentially guesses where the price "should" be based on the best-fit line of the recent trend.
* **VWMA (Volume Weighted Moving Average):**
* *Logic:* Weights the closing price by the volume of that bar.
* *Effect:* Prices on high volume days pull the MA harder than prices on low volume days. This is excellent for validating true trend strength (i.e., a breakout on high volume will move the VWMA significantly).
---
### 🛠 Features & Settings
* **Universal Switching:** Change the `Fast MA` and `Slow MA` types instantly via the settings menu.
* **Trend Cloud:** A dynamic background fill (Green/Red) highlights the crossover zone for immediate visual trend identification.
* **Strategy Mode:** Built-in Backtesting logic triggers `LONG` entries when Fast MA crosses over Slow MA, and `EXIT` when Fast MA crosses under.
### ⚠️ Disclaimer
This script is intended for educational and research purposes. The wide variety of MA combinations can produce vastly different results. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please use proper risk management.
Bayesian Liquidity Pain & Gain [Instit. Vol Weighted]Bayesian Liquidity Pain & Gain Indicator
Stop guessing where support and resistance are.
The Bayesian Liquidity Pain & Gain indicator moves beyond arbitrary lines and raw price action. It quantifies Institutional Intent by calculating the exact price levels where large volume has been accumulated and visualizes the "Pain" (stress) those participants feel when the market moves against them.
The Logic: Quantified Institutional Stress
Institutions don't trade single candles; they accumulate positions over time. This indicator tracks their Volume-Weighted Average Cost Basis to answer two critical questions:
Where did they enter? (The Cost Basis Lines)
Are they underwater? (The Pain Clouds)
By normalizing price distance using volatility (ATR) and statistical deviation (Z-Score), we filter out noise and only highlight zones where "Smart Money" is statistically forced to defend their positions or capitulate.
How to Read the Chart
1. The Cost Basis Lines (Anchors)
• 🟢 Green Line (Buyer Cost Basis): The average price where institutions accumulated long positions. This acts as dynamic Support.
• 🔴 Red Line (Seller Cost Basis): The average price where institutions accumulated short positions. This acts as dynamic Resistance.
2. The Pain Clouds (Signals)
When price moves significantly away from the cost basis (Z-Score > 2.0), "Clouds" appear to visualize the PnL status of the participants:
• 🔴 Red Cloud (Buyer Pain): Price is below the buyer's entry. Buyers are losing money (in the red). This creates a "Discount" zone where they may defend support.
• 🟢 Green Cloud (Seller Pain): Price is above the seller's entry. Sellers are losing money (shorts are squeezed). This indicates strong bullish momentum.
3. The Multi-Timeframe Dashboard
A real-time HUD showing the Z-Score status across 4 timeframes (1m, 5m, 15m, 1h):
• 🟢 Green: Profitable/Neutral (Trend Continuation)
• 🟠 Orange: Warning (Pressure Building)
• 🔴 Red: Critical Pain (High Probability Reversal)
Trading Strategies
Setup 1: The Defensive Bounce (Long)
• Context: Price drops into a 🔴 Red Cloud (Buyer Pain).
• Trigger: Price touches the 🟢 Green Line (Buyer Cost Basis) and shows a rejection wick.
• Logic: Institutional buyers defend their cost basis to avoid realizing losses.
Setup 2: The Short Squeeze (Momentum)
• Context: Price rallies into a 🟢 Green Cloud (Seller Pain).
• Trigger: Price holds above the 🔴 Red Line (Seller Cost Basis).
• Logic: Short sellers are trapped and forced to buy back (cover), fueling the rally.
Fractal Alignment:
For high-conviction trades, wait for the Dashboard to show "Pain" signals on both the 1h (Anchor) and 5m (Trigger) timeframes simultaneously.
Settings
• Memory Length (Default 144): The lookback period for the institutional cost basis. Increase for swing trading, decrease for scalping.
• Sigma Threshold (Default 2.0): The statistical confidence level for "Pain". Higher values = fewer, stronger signals.
• Volume Amp: When enabled, high volume amplifies the pain signal, giving more weight to institutional footprints.
Range Lattice## RangeLattice
RangeLattice constructs a higher-timeframe scaffolding on any intraday chart, locking in structural highs/lows, mid/quarter grids, VWAP confluence, and live acceptance/break analytics. It provides a non-repainting overlay that turns range management into a disciplined process.
HOW IT WORKS
Structure Harvesting – Using request.security() , the script samples highs/lows from a user-selected timeframe (default 240 minutes) over a configurable lookback to establish the dominant range.
Grid Construction – Midpoint and quarter levels are derived mathematically, mirroring how institutional traders map distribution/accumulation zones.
Acceptance Detection – Consecutive closes inside the range flip an acceptance flag and darken the cloud, signaling balanced auction conditions.
Break Confirmation – Multi-bar closes outside the structure raise break labels and alerts, filtering the countless fake-outs that plague breakout traders.
VWAP Fan Overlay – Session VWAP plus ATR-based bands provide a live measure of flow centering relative to the lattice.
HOW TO USE IT
Range Plays : Fade taps of the outer rails only when acceptance is active and VWAP sits inside the grid—this is where mean-reversion works best.
Breakout Plays : Wait for confirmed break labels before entering expansion trades; the dashboard's Width/ATR metric tells you if the expansion has enough fuel.
Market Prep : Carry the same lattice from pre-market into regular trading hours by keeping the structure timeframe fixed; alerts keep you notified even when managing multiple tickers.
VISUAL FEATURES
Range Tap and Mid Pivot markers provide a tape-reading breadcrumb trail for journaling.
Cloud fill opacity tightens when acceptance persists, visually signaling balance compressions ready to break.
Dashboard displays absolute width, ATR-normalized width, and current state (Balanced vs Transitional) so you can glance across charts quickly.
Acceptance Flag toggle: Keep the repeated acceptance squares hidden until you need to audit balance.
PARAMETERS
Structure Timeframe (default: 240): Choose the timeframe whose ranges matter most (4H for indices, Daily for stocks).
Structure Lookback (default: 60): Bars sampled on the structure timeframe.
Acceptance Bars (default: 8): How many consecutive bars inside the range confirm balance.
Break Confirmation Bars (default: 3): Bars required outside the range to validate a breakout.
ATR Reference (default: 14): ATR period for width normalization.
Show Midpoint Grid (default: enabled): Display the midpoint and quarter levels.
Show Adaptive VWAP Fan (default: enabled): Toggle the VWAP channel for assets where volume distribution matters most.
Show Acceptance Flags (default: disabled): Turn the acceptance markers on/off for maximum visual control.
Show Range Dashboard (default: enabled): Disable if screen space is limited, re-enable during prep sessions.
ALERTS
The indicator includes five alert conditions:
Range High Tap: Price interacted with the RangeLattice high
Range Low Tap: Price interacted with the RangeLattice low
Range Mid Tap: Price interacted with the RangeLattice mid
Range Break Up: Confirmed upside breakout
Range Break Down: Confirmed downside breakout
Where it works best
This indicator works best on liquid instruments with clear structural levels. On very low timeframes (1-minute and below), the structure may update too frequently to be useful. The acceptance/break confirmation system requires patience—faster traders may find the multi-bar confirmation too slow for scalping. The VWAP fan is session-based and resets daily, which may not suit all trading styles.
FluxPulse Beacon## FluxPulse Beacon
FluxPulse Beacon applies a microstructure lens to every bar, combining directional thrust, realized volatility, and multi-timeframe liquidity checks to decide whether the tape is being pushed by real sponsorship or just noise. The oscillator's color-coded columns and adaptive burst thresholds transform complex flow dynamics into a single actionable flux score for futures and equities traders.
HOW IT WORKS
Momentum Extraction – Price differentials over a configurable pulse distance are smoothed using exponential moving averages to isolate directional thrust without reacting to single prints.
Volatility + Liquidity Normalization – The momentum stream is divided by realized volatility and multiplied by both local and higher-timeframe EMA volume ratios, ensuring pulses only appear when volatility and liquidity align.
Adaptive Thresholding – A volatility-derived standard deviation of flux is blended with the base threshold so bursts scale automatically between low-volatility and high-volatility market conditions.
Divergence Engine – Linear regression slopes compare price vs. flux to tag bullish/bearish divergences, highlighting stealth accumulation or distribution zones.
HOW TO USE IT
Continuation Entries : Go with the trend when histogram bars stay above the adaptive threshold, the signal line confirms, and trend bias agrees—this is where liquidity-backed follow-through lives.
Fade Plays : Watch for divergence alerts and shrinking compression values; when flux prints below zero yet price grinds higher, hidden selling pressure often precedes rollovers.
Session Filter : Compression percentage in the diagnostics table instantly tells you whether to trade thin overnight sessions—low compression means stand down.
VISUAL FEATURES
Dynamic background heat maps flux magnitude, while threshold lines provide a quick read on whether a pulse is statistically significant.
Diagnostics table displays live flux, signal, adaptive threshold, and compression for quick reference.
Alert-first workflow: The surface is intentionally clean—bursts and divergences are delivered via alerts instead of on-chart clutter.
PARAMETERS
Trend EMA Length (default: 34): Defines the macro bias anchor; increase for higher-timeframe confirmation.
Pulse Distance (default: 8): Controls how sensitive momentum extraction becomes.
Volatility Window (default: 21): Sample window for realized volatility normalization.
Liquidity Window (default: 55): Volume smoothing window that proxies liquidity expansion.
Liquidity Reference TF (default: 60): Select a higher timeframe to cross-check whether current volume matches institutional flows.
Adaptive Threshold (default: enabled): Disable for fixed thresholds on slower markets; enable for high-volatility assets.
Base Burst Threshold (default: 1.25): Minimum flux magnitude that qualifies as an actionable pulse.
ALERTS
The indicator includes four alert conditions:
Bull Burst: Detects upside liquidity pulses
Bear Burst: Detects downside liquidity pulses
Bull Divergence: Flags bullish delta divergence
Bear Divergence: Flags bearish delta divergence
LIMITATIONS
This indicator is designed for liquid futures and equity markets. Performance may degrade in low-volume or highly illiquid instruments. The adaptive threshold system works best on timeframes where sufficient volatility history exists (typically 15-minute charts and above). Divergence signals are probabilistic and should be confirmed with price action.
INSERT_CHART_SNAPSHOT_URL_HERE
---
## RangeLattice Mapper
RangeLattice Mapper constructs a higher-timeframe scaffolding on any intraday chart, locking in structural highs/lows, mid/quarter grids, VWAP confluence, and live acceptance/break analytics. It provides a non-repainting overlay that turns range management into a disciplined process.
HOW IT WORKS
Structure Harvesting – Using request.security() , the script samples highs/lows from a user-selected timeframe (default 240 minutes) over a configurable lookback to establish the dominant range.
Grid Construction – Midpoint and quarter levels are derived mathematically, mirroring how institutional traders map distribution/accumulation zones.
Acceptance Detection – Consecutive closes inside the range flip an acceptance flag and darken the cloud, signaling balanced auction conditions.
Break Confirmation – Multi-bar closes outside the structure raise break labels and alerts, filtering the countless fake-outs that plague breakout traders.
VWAP Fan Overlay – Session VWAP plus ATR-based bands provide a live measure of flow centering relative to the lattice.
HOW TO USE IT
Range Plays : Fade taps of the outer rails only when acceptance is active and VWAP sits inside the grid—this is where mean-reversion works best.
Breakout Plays : Wait for confirmed break labels before entering expansion trades; the dashboard's Width/ATR metric tells you if the expansion has enough fuel.
Market Prep : Carry the same lattice from pre-market into regular trading hours by keeping the structure timeframe fixed; alerts keep you notified even when managing multiple tickers.
VISUAL FEATURES
Range Tap and Mid Pivot markers provide a tape-reading breadcrumb trail for journaling.
Cloud fill opacity tightens when acceptance persists, visually signaling balance compressions ready to break.
Dashboard displays absolute width, ATR-normalized width, and current state (Balanced vs Transitional) so you can glance across charts quickly.
Acceptance Flag toggle: Keep the repeated acceptance squares hidden until you need to audit balance.
PARAMETERS
Structure Timeframe (default: 240): Choose the timeframe whose ranges matter most (4H for indices, Daily for stocks).
Structure Lookback (default: 60): Bars sampled on the structure timeframe.
Acceptance Bars (default: 8): How many consecutive bars inside the range confirm balance.
Break Confirmation Bars (default: 3): Bars required outside the range to validate a breakout.
ATR Reference (default: 14): ATR period for width normalization.
Show Midpoint Grid (default: enabled): Display the midpoint and quarter levels.
Show Adaptive VWAP Fan (default: enabled): Toggle the VWAP channel for assets where volume distribution matters most.
Show Acceptance Flags (default: disabled): Turn the acceptance markers on/off for maximum visual control.
Show Range Dashboard (default: enabled): Disable if screen space is limited, re-enable during prep sessions.
ALERTS
The indicator includes five alert conditions:
Range High Tap: Price interacted with the RangeLattice high
Range Low Tap: Price interacted with the RangeLattice low
Range Mid Tap: Price interacted with the RangeLattice mid
Range Break Up: Confirmed upside breakout
Range Break Down: Confirmed downside breakout
LIMITATIONS
This indicator works best on liquid instruments with clear structural levels. On very low timeframes (1-minute and below), the structure may update too frequently to be useful. The acceptance/break confirmation system requires patience—faster traders may find the multi-bar confirmation too slow for scalping. The VWAP fan is session-based and resets daily, which may not suit all trading styles.
---
Hybrid Flow Master📊 Hybrid Flow Master - Professional Trading Indicator
Overview
Hybrid Flow Master is an advanced all-in-one trading indicator that combines Smart Money Concepts, institutional order flow analysis, and multi-timeframe confluence scoring to identify high-probability trade setups. Designed for both scalpers and swing traders across all markets (Forex, Crypto, Stocks, Indices).
🎯 Key Features
1. Intelligent Confluence System (0-100% Scoring) Proprietary scoring algorithm that weighs multiple factors Only signals when minimum confidence threshold is met
Real-time probability calculations for each setup Signal quality grading: A+, A, B, C ratings
2. Smart Money Concepts (SMC)
Automatic Order Block detection (bullish/bearish) Fair Value Gap (FVG) identification
Market structure analysis (Higher Highs, Lower Lows) Swing high/low tracking with visual markers
3. Multi-Timeframe Analysis
Higher timeframe trend filter for confluence Customizable HTF periods (1H, 4H, Daily, etc.)
Prevents counter-trend trades Aligns entries with major trends
4. Volume Flow Analysis
Volume spike detection with customizable thresholds Volume delta calculations (buying vs selling pressure) Institutional footprint identification Background highlighting for high-volume bars
5. Advanced Risk Management
ATR-based stop loss calculation Automatic take profit levels Customizable risk/reward ratios (1:1, 1:2, 1:3+) Visual SL/TP lines on chart Position sizing guidance
6. Professional Dashboard
Real-time HUD displaying:
Market bias (Bullish/Bearish/Neutral)
Higher timeframe trend status
Current confluence percentage
Volume status (Normal/High)
RSI reading with color coding
ATR volatility measure
Signal quality grade
7. Smart Alert System
Bullish confluence signals
Bearish confluence signals
Volume spike notifications
Customizable alert messages
Works with mobile app notifications
📈 What Makes It Unique?
✅ No Repainting - All signals are confirmed and final
✅ Probability-Based - Shows confidence level, not just binary signals
✅ Multi-Factor Confluence - Combines structure, volume, momentum, and HTF analysis
✅ Clean Interface - Toggle individual components on/off
✅ Works on All Timeframes - From 1-minute scalping to daily swing trading
✅ Universal Markets - Forex, Crypto, Stocks, Indices, Commodities
🎨 Customization Options
Adjustable swing detection length
Volume threshold settings
Minimum confluence score filter
Custom color schemes
Dashboard position (4 corners)
Show/hide individual components
Risk/reward ratio adjustment
ATR multiplier for stops
📊 Best Used For:
✔️ Scalping (1m - 15m charts)
✔️ Day Trading (15m - 1H charts)
✔️ Swing Trading (4H - Daily charts)
✔️ Trend Following
✔️ Reversal Trading
✔️ Breakout Trading
💡 How to Use:
Add indicator to chart - Works immediately with default settings Set your timeframe - Choose your trading style Wait for signals - Green BUY or Red SELL labels with confidence %
Check confluence score - Higher % = better quality setup Review dashboard - Confirm market bias and HTF trend Manage risk - Use provided SL/TP levels or adjust to your preference
Set alerts - Get notified of high-probability setups
⚙️ Recommended Settings:
For Scalping (1m-5m):
Swing Length: 5-7
Min Confluence: 70%
HTF: 15m or 1H
For Day Trading (15m-1H):
Swing Length: 10-15
Min Confluence: 60%
HTF: 4H or Daily
For Swing Trading (4H-Daily):
Swing Length: 15-20
Min Confluence: 50-60%
HTF: Weekly
📚 Indicator Components:
✦ Market Structure Detection
✦ Order Block Identification
✦ Fair Value Gaps (FVG)
✦ Volume Analysis
✦ RSI (14)
✦ MACD (12, 26, 9)
✦ ATR (14)
✦ Multi-Timeframe Trend
✦ Confluence Scoring Algorithm
🚀 Performance Notes:
Optimized for speed and efficiency Minimal CPU usage Clean chart presentation
Limited drawing objects (no chart clutter) Works on all TradingView plans
⚠️ Important Notes:
This indicator is a tool to assist trading decisions, not financial advice Always use proper risk management (1-2% per trade recommended) Backtest on your preferred market and timeframe
Combine with your own analysis and strategy Past performance does not guarantee future results
🔔 Alert Setup:
Right-click indicator name → "Add Alert" → Choose:
"Bullish Confluence Signal" for buy setups
"Bearish Confluence Signal" for sell setups
"Volume Spike Alert" for unusual activity
💬 Support:
For questions, suggestions, or custom modifications, feel free to message me directly through TradingView.
Moving VWAP-KAMA CloudMoving VWAP-KAMA Cloud
Overview
The Moving VWAP-KAMA Cloud is a high-conviction trend filter designed to solve a major problem with standard indicators: Noise. By combining a smoothed Volume Weighted Average Price (MVWAP) with Kaufman’s Adaptive Moving Average (KAMA), this indicator creates a "Value Zone" that identifies the true structural trend while ignoring choppy price action.
Unlike brittle lines that break constantly, this cloud is "slow" by design—making it exceptionally powerful for spotting genuine trend reversals and filtering out fakeouts.
How It Works
This script uses a unique "Double Smoothing" architecture:
The Anchor (MVWAP): We take the standard VWAP and smooth it with a 30-period EMA. This represents the "Fair Value" baseline where volume has supported price over time.
The Filter (KAMA): We apply Kaufman's Adaptive Moving Average to the already smoothed MVWAP. KAMA is unique because it flattens out during low-volatility (choppy) periods and speeds up during high-momentum trends.
The Cloud:
Green/Teal Cloud: Bullish Structure (MVWAP > KAMA)
Purple Cloud: Bearish Structure (MVWAP < KAMA)
🔥 The "Reversal Slingshot" Strategy
Backtests reveal a powerful behavior during major trend changes, particularly after long bear markets:
The Resistance Phase: During a long-term downtrend, price will repeatedly rally into the Purple Cloud and get rejected. The flattened KAMA line acts as a "concrete ceiling," keeping the bearish trend intact.
The Breakout & Flip: When price finally breaks above the cloud with conviction, and the cloud flips Green, it signals a structural regime change.
The "Slingshot" Retest: Often, immediately after this flip, price will drop back into the top of the cloud. This is the "Slingshot" moment. The old resistance becomes new, hardened support.
The Rally: From this support bounce, stocks often launch into a sustained, multi-month bull run. This setup has been observed repeatedly at the bottom of major corrections.
How to Use This Indicator
1. Dynamic Support & Resistance
The KAMA Wall: When price retraces into the cloud, the KAMA line often flattens out, acting as a hard "floor" or "wall." A break of this wall usually signals a genuine trend change, not just a stop hunt.
2. Trend Confirmation (Regime Filter)
Bullish Regime: If price is holding above the cloud, only look for Long setups.
Bearish Regime: If price is holding below the cloud, only look for Short setups.
No-Trade Zone: If price is stuck inside the cloud, the market is traversing fair value. Stand aside until a clear winner emerges.
3. Multi-Timeframe Versatility
While designed for trend confirmation on higher timeframes (4H, Daily), this indicator adapts beautifully to lower timeframes (5m, 15m) for intraday scalping.
On Lower Timeframes: The cloud reacts much faster, acting as a dynamic "VWAP Band" that helps intraday traders stay on the right side of momentum during the session.
Settings
Moving VWAP Period (30): The lookback period for the base VWAP smoothing.
KAMA Settings (10, 10, 30): Controls the sensitivity of the adaptive filter.
Cloud Transparency: Adjust to keep your chart clean.
Alerts Included
Price Cross Over/Under MVWAP
Price Cross Over/Under KAMA
Cloud Flip (Bullish/Bearish Trend Change)
Tip for Traders
This is not a signal entry indicator. It is a Trend Conviction tool. Use it to filter your entries from faster indicators (like RSI or MACD). If your fast indicator signals "Buy" but the cloud is Purple, the probability is low. Wait for the Cloud Flip
Simple Line📌 Understanding the Basic Concept
The trend reverses only when the price moves up or down by a fixed filter size.
It ignores normal volatility and noise, recognizing a trend change only when price moves beyond a specified threshold.
Trend direction is visually intuitive through line colors (green: uptrend, red: downtrend).
⚙️ Explanation of Settings
Auto Brick Size: Automatically determines the brick/filter size.
Fixed Brick Size: Manually set the size (e.g., 15, 30, 50, 100, etc.).
Volatility Length: The lookback period used for calculations (default: 14).
📈 Example of Identifying Buy Timing
When the line changes from gray or red to green, it signals the start of an uptrend.
This indicates that the price has moved upward by more than the required threshold.
📉 Example of Identifying Sell Timing
When the line changes from green to red, it suggests a possible downtrend reversal.
At this point, consider closing long positions or evaluating short entries.
🧪 Recommended Use Cases
Use as a trend filter to enhance the accuracy of existing strategies.
Can be used alone as a clean directional indicator without complex oscillators.
Works synergistically with trend-following strategies, breakout strategies, and more.
🔒 Notes & Cautions
More suitable for medium- to long-term trend trading than for fast scalping.
If the brick size is too small, the indicator may react to noise.
Sensitivity varies greatly depending on the selected brick size, so backtesting is essential to determine optimal values.
❗ The Trend Simple Line focuses solely on direction—remove the noise and focus purely on the trend.
초대 전용 스크립트
이 스크립트에 대한 접근이 제한되어 있습니다. 사용자는 즐겨찾기에 추가할 수 있지만 사용하려면 사용자의 권한이 필요합니다. 연락처 정보를 포함하여 액세스 요청에 대한 명확한 지침을 제공해 주세요.
이 비공개 초대 전용 스크립트는 스크립트 모더레이터의 검토를 거치지 않았으며, 하우스 룰 준수 여부는 확인되지 않았습니다. 트레이딩뷰는 스크립트의 작동 방식을 충분히 이해하고 작성자를 완전히 신뢰하지 않는 이상, 해당 스크립트에 비용을 지불하거나 사용하는 것을 권장하지 않습니다. 커뮤니티 스크립트에서 무료 오픈소스 대안을 찾아보실 수도 있습니다.
작성자 지시 사항
.
c9indicator
면책사항
해당 정보와 게시물은 금융, 투자, 트레이딩 또는 기타 유형의 조언이나 권장 사항으로 간주되지 않으며, 트레이딩뷰에서 제공하거나 보증하는 것이 아닙니
MTF Scalper - alemicihanMulti-Timeframe Scalper Strategy: Aligning the Big Picture for Quick Gains
This article presents a robust futures trading strategy designed for high-frequency scalping in the crypto market. It’s built on the principle of minimizing risk by ensuring that short-term entries are always aligned with the dominant, higher-timeframe trend.
The Core Concept: Alignment is Key
A Balanced Trend Follower approach, now refined for rapid scalping, uses a Multi-Timeframe (MTF) confirmation system to filter out market noise and increase the probability of a successful trade.
The strategy operates on a Low Timeframe (LTF) chart (e.g., 3m, 5m, or 15m) but only executes trades if the direction is validated by three Higher Timeframes (HTF).
ComponentPurposeFunctionHTF (D, 4h, 1h) EMA => Trend Confirmation =>Checks if the current price is above/below all three Exponential Moving Averages (EMA 20). This provides a strong directional bias.
LTF (5m) Stochastic RSI => Momentum Entry => Generates the actual buy/sell signal by spotting a swift crossover, indicating fresh momentum in the direction of the confirmed HTF trend.
How The Signal Is Generated
Trend Alignment: The system first confirms the trend. If the price is trading above the Daily, 4-Hour, and 1-Hour EMAs, the market is deemed to be in a Strong LONG Trend. Only LONG signals are permitted.
Momentum Trigger: Once the trend is confirmed, a Long Signal is generated only when the Stochastic K-Line crosses above the D-Line, indicating a momentum shift (a pullback ending) towards the main trend direction.
Short Signal: The inverse logic applies to the Short Trend confirmation and entry signal.
Mandatory Risk Management: ATR-Based Exit
Given the high leverage nature of futures and scalping, static Stop-Loss (SL) and Take-Profit (TP) levels are inefficient. This strategy uses the Average True Range (ATR) indicator to dynamically set profit and loss targets based on current market volatility.
Stop Loss (SL): Set dynamically at 1.5 x ATR below (for long) or above (for short) the entry price. This gives the trade enough room to breathe without risking excessive capital.
Take Profit (TP): Set dynamically at 3.0 x ATR, establishing a robust Risk-to-Reward Ratio of 1:2.
Final Thoughts on Testing
This sophisticated approach combines the reliability of MTF analysis with the speed of momentum indicators. However, data analysis is key. Backtesting these parameters (EMA, ATR Multipliers, RSI/Stochastic lengths) on your chosen asset (like BTC/USDT or ETH/USDT) and timeframe is crucial to achieving optimal performance.
Systemic Net Liquidity (Macro Fuel for Crypto & Stocks)This indicator tracks Systemic Net Liquidity, the single most important macro factor for determining the long-term trend of risk assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and major indices (S&P 500). It measures the amount of actual cash available in the financial system to chase speculative assets, distinguishing between money that is circulating and money that is locked up at the Federal Reserve.
Mechanism (What It Measures)
The script uses direct data from the FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) to calculate the true state of market funding:
\text{Net Liquidity} = \text{Fed Assets (WALCL)} - \text{Treasury General Account (TGA)} - \text{Reverse Repo (RRP)}
1. Fed Assets (WALCL): The total balance sheet of the Fed (The overall supply of money).
2. Treasury General Account (TGA): Funds the US Treasury collects via bond issuance. When the TGA rises, liquidity is actively drained from the banking system (A major bearish pressure).
3. Overnight Reverse Repo (RRP): Cash parked by banks and money market funds at the Fed, effectively frozen and not contributing to market activity.
How to Interpret Signals
Treat the Net Liquidity line as the market's "Fuel Gauge":
📈 BULLISH SIGNAL (Liquidity Injection): When the Net Liquidity line is rising, money is flowing back into the system, signalling a tailwind for risk assets.
📉 BEARISH SIGNAL (Liquidity Drain): When the line is falling (often due to high TGA balances), cash is being removed. This signals major friction and pressure on price action.
⚠️ DIVERGENCE WARNING: A strong signal is generated when Price (e.g., BTC) rises, but Net Liquidity falls. This macro divergence strongly suggests a major trend reversal or correction is imminent.
Important Notes
Data Source: Data is directly sourced from FRED and updates daily/weekly. This tool is best used for macro analysis and identifying high-level cycles, not short-term scalping.
Disclaimer: Use this indicator as a confirmation tool within your broader strategy. It is not a standalone trading signal.
Systemic Net Liquidity (Macro Fuel for Crypto & Stocks)This indicator tracks Systemic Net Liquidity, the single most important macro factor for determining the long-term trend of risk assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and major indices (S&P 500). It measures the amount of actual cash available in the financial system to chase speculative assets, distinguishing between money that is circulating and money that is locked up at the Federal Reserve.
Mechanism (What It Measures)
The script uses direct data from the FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) to calculate the true state of market funding:
\text{Net Liquidity} = \text{Fed Assets (WALCL)} - \text{Treasury General Account (TGA)} - \text{Reverse Repo (RRP)}
1. Fed Assets (WALCL): The total balance sheet of the Fed (The overall supply of money).
2. Treasury General Account (TGA): Funds the US Treasury collects via bond issuance. When the TGA rises, liquidity is actively drained from the banking system (A major bearish pressure).
3. Overnight Reverse Repo (RRP): Cash parked by banks and money market funds at the Fed, effectively frozen and not contributing to market activity.
How to Interpret Signals
Treat the Net Liquidity line as the market's "Fuel Gauge":
📈 BULLISH SIGNAL (Liquidity Injection): When the Net Liquidity line is rising, money is flowing back into the system, signalling a tailwind for risk assets.
📉 BEARISH SIGNAL (Liquidity Drain): When the line is falling (often due to high TGA balances), cash is being removed. This signals major friction and pressure on price action.
⚠️ DIVERGENCE WARNING: A strong signal is generated when Price (e.g., BTC) rises, but Net Liquidity falls. This macro divergence strongly suggests a major trend reversal or correction is imminent.
Important Notes
Data Source: Data is directly sourced from FRED and updates daily/weekly. This tool is best used for macro analysis and identifying high-level cycles, not short-term scalping.
Disclaimer: Use this indicator as a confirmation tool within your broader strategy. It is not a standalone trading signal.
Mars Signals - Ultimate Institutional Suite v3.0(Joker)Comprehensive Trading Manual
Mars Signals – Ultimate Institutional Suite v3.0 (Joker)
## Chapter 1 – Philosophy & System Architecture
This script is not a simple “buy/sell” indicator.
Mars Signals – UIS v3.0 (Joker) is designed as an institutional-style analytical assistant that layers several methodologies into a single, coherent framework.
The system is built on four core pillars:
1. Smart Money Concepts (SMC)
- Detection of Order Blocks (professional demand/supply zones).
- Detection of Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) (price imbalances).
2. Smart DCA Strategy
- Combination of RSI and Bollinger Bands
- Identifies statistically discounted zones for scaling into spot positions or exiting shorts.
3. Volume Profile (Visible Range Simulation)
- Distribution of volume by price, not by time.
- Identification of POC (Point of Control) and high-/low-volume areas.
4. Wyckoff Helper – Spring
- Detection of bear traps, liquidity grabs, and sharp bullish reversals.
All four pillars feed into a Confluence Engine (Scoring System).
The final output is presented in the Dashboard, with a clear, human-readable signal:
- STRONG LONG 🚀
- WEAK LONG ↗
- NEUTRAL / WAIT
- WEAK SHORT ↘
- STRONG SHORT 🩸
This allows the trader to see *how many* and *which* layers of the system support a bullish or bearish bias at any given time.
## Chapter 2 – Settings Overview
### 2.1 General & Dashboard Group
- Show Dashboard Panel (`show_dash`)
Turns the dashboard table in the corner of the chart ON/OFF.
- Show Signal Recommendation (`show_rec`)
- If enabled, the textual signal (STRONG LONG, WEAK SHORT, etc.) is displayed.
- If disabled, you only see feature status (ON/OFF) and the current price.
- Dashboard Position (`dash_pos`)
Determines where the dashboard appears on the chart:
- `Top Right`
- `Bottom Right`
- `Top Left`
### 2.2 Smart Money (SMC) Group
- Enable SMC Strategy (`show_smc`)
Globally enables or disables the Order Block and FVG logic.
- Order Block Pivot Lookback (`ob_period`)
Main parameter for detecting key pivot highs/lows (swing points).
- Default value: 5
- Concept:
A bar is considered a pivot low if its low is lower than the lows of the previous 5 and the next 5 bars.
Similarly, a pivot high has a high higher than the previous 5 and the next 5 bars.
These pivots are used as anchors for Order Blocks.
- Increasing `ob_period`:
- Fewer levels.
- But levels tend to be more significant and reliable.
- In highly volatile markets (major news, war events, FOMC, etc.),
using values 7–10 is recommended to filter out weak levels.
- Show Fair Value Gaps (`show_fvg`)
Enables/disables the drawing of FVG zones (imbalances).
- Bullish OB Color (`c_ob_bull`)
- Color of Bullish Order Blocks (Demand Zones).
- Default: semi-transparent green (transparency ≈ 80).
- Bearish OB Color (`c_ob_bear`)
- Color of Bearish Order Blocks (Supply Zones).
- Default: semi-transparent red.
- Bullish FVG Color (`c_fvg_bull`)
- Color of Bullish FVG (upward imbalance), typically yellow.
- Bearish FVG Color (`c_fvg_bear`)
- Color of Bearish FVG (downward imbalance), typically purple.
### 2.3 Smart DCA Strategy Group
- Enable DCA Zones (`show_dca`)
Enables the Smart DCA logic and visual labels.
- RSI Length (`rsi_len`)
Lookback period for RSI (default: 14).
- Shorter → more sensitive, more noise.
- Longer → fewer signals, higher reliability.
- Bollinger Bands Length (`bb_len`)
Moving average period for Bollinger Bands (default: 20).
- BB Multiplier (`bb_mult`)
Standard deviation multiplier for Bollinger Bands (default: 2.0).
- For extremely volatile markets, values like 2.5–3.0 can be used so that only extreme deviations trigger a DCA signal.
### 2.4 Volume Profile (Visible Range Sim) Group
- Show Volume Profile (`show_vp`)
Enables the simulated Volume Profile bars on the right side of the chart.
- Volume Lookback Bars (`vp_lookback`)
Number of bars used to compute the Volume Profile (default: 150).
- Higher values → broader historical context, heavier computation.
- Row Count (`vp_rows`)
Number of vertical price segments (rows) to divide the total price range into (default: 30).
- Width (%) (`vp_width`)
Relative width of each volume bar as a percentage.
In the code, bar widths are scaled relative to the row with the maximum volume.
> Technical note: Volume Profile calculations are executed only on the last bar (`barstate.islast`) to keep the script performant even on higher timeframes.
### 2.5 Wyckoff Helper Group
- Show Wyckoff Events (`show_wyc`)
Enables detection and plotting of Wyckoff Spring events.
- Volume MA Length (`vol_ma_len`)
Length of the moving average on volume.
A bar is considered to have Ultra Volume if its volume is more than 2× the volume MA.
## Chapter 3 – Smart Money Strategy (Order Blocks & FVG)
### 3.1 What Is an Order Block?
An Order Block (OB) represents the footprint of large institutional orders:
- Bullish Order Block (Demand Zone)
The last selling region (bearish candle/cluster) before a strong upward move.
- Bearish Order Block (Supply Zone)
The last buying region (bullish candle/cluster) before a strong downward move.
Institutions and large players place heavy orders in these regions. Typical price behavior:
- Price moves away from the zone.
- Later returns to the same zone to fill unfilled orders.
- Then continues the larger trend.
In the script:
- If `pl` (pivot low) forms → a Bullish OB is created.
- If `ph` (pivot high) forms → a Bearish OB is created.
The box is drawn:
- From `bar_index ` to `bar_index`.
- Between `low ` and `high `.
- `extend=extend.right` extends the OB into the future, so it acts as a dynamic support/resistance zone.
- Only the last 4 OB boxes are kept to avoid clutter.
### 3.2 Order Block Color Guide
- Semi-transparent Green (`c_ob_bull`)
- Represents a Bullish Order Block (Demand Zone).
- Interpretation: a price region with a high probability of bullish reaction.
- Semi-transparent Red (`c_ob_bear`)
- Represents a Bearish Order Block (Supply Zone).
- Interpretation: a price region with a high probability of bearish reaction.
Overlap (Multiple OBs in the Same Area)
When two or more Order Blocks overlap:
- The shared area appears visually denser/stronger.
- This suggests higher order density.
- Such zones can be treated as high-priority levels for entries, exits, and stop-loss placement.
### 3.3 Demand/Supply Logic in the Scoring Engine
is_in_demand = low <= ta.lowest(low, 20)
is_in_supply = high >= ta.highest(high, 20)
- If current price is near the lowest lows of the last 20 bars, it is considered in a Demand Zone → positive impact on score.
- If current price is near the highest highs of the last 20 bars, it is considered in a Supply Zone → negative impact on score.
This logic complements Order Blocks and helps the Dashboard distinguish whether:
- Market is currently in a statistically cheap (long-friendly) area, or
- In a statistically expensive (short-friendly) area.
### 3.4 Fair Value Gaps (FVG)
#### Concept
When the market moves aggressively:
- Some price levels are skipped and never traded.
- A gap between wicks/shadows of consecutive candles appears.
- These regions are called Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) or Imbalances.
The market generally “dislikes” imbalance and often:
- Returns to these zones in the future.
- Fills the gap (rebalance).
- Then resumes its dominant direction.
#### Implementation in the Code
Bullish FVG (Yellow)
fvg_bull_cond = show_smc and show_fvg and low > high and close > high
if fvg_bull_cond
box.new(bar_index , high , bar_index, low, ...)
Core condition:
`low > high ` → the current low is above the high of two bars ago; the space between them is an untraded gap.
Bearish FVG (Purple)
fvg_bear_cond = show_smc and show_fvg and high < low and close < low
if fvg_bear_cond
box.new(bar_index , low , bar_index, high, ...)
Core condition:
`high < low ` → the current high is below the low of two bars ago; again a price gap exists.
#### FVG Color Guide
- Transparent Yellow (`c_fvg_bull`) – Bullish FVG
Often acts like a magnet for price:
- Price tends to retrace into this zone,
- Fill the imbalance,
- And then continue higher.
- Transparent Purple (`c_fvg_bear`) – Bearish FVG
Price tends to:
- Retrace upward into the purple area,
- Fill the imbalance,
- And then resume downward movement.
#### Trading with FVGs
- FVGs are *not* standalone entry signals.
They are best used as:
- Targets (take-profit zones), or
- Reaction areas where you expect a pause or reversal.
Examples:
- If you are long, a bearish FVG above is often an excellent take-profit zone.
- If you are short, a bullish FVG below is often a good cover/exit zone.
### 3.5 Core SMC Trading Templates
#### Reversal Long
1. Price trades down into a green Order Block (Demand Zone).
2. A bullish confirmation candle (Close > Open) forms inside or just above the OB.
3. If this zone is close to or aligned with a bullish FVG (yellow), the signal is reinforced.
4. Entry:
- At the close of the confirmation candle, or
- Using a limit order near the upper boundary of the OB.
5. Stop-loss:
- Slightly below the OB.
- If the OB is broken decisively and price consolidates below it, the zone loses validity.
6. Targets:
- The next FVG,
- Or the next red Order Block (Supply Zone) above.
#### Reversal Short
The mirror scenario:
- Price rallies into a red Order Block (Supply).
- A bearish confirmation candle forms (Close < Open).
- FVG/premium structure above can act as a confluence.
- Stop-loss goes above the OB.
- Targets: lower FVGs or subsequent green OBs below.
## Chapter 4 – Smart DCA Strategy (RSI + Bollinger Bands)
### 4.1 Smart DCA Concept
- Classic DCA = buying at fixed time intervals regardless of price.
- Smart DCA = scaling in only when:
- Price is statistically cheaper than usual, and
- The market is in a clear oversold condition.
Code logic:
rsi_val = ta.rsi(close, rsi_len)
= ta.bb(close, bb_len, bb_mult)
dca_buy = show_dca and rsi_val < 30 and close < bb_lower
dca_sell = show_dca and rsi_val > 70 and close > bb_upper
Conditions:
- DCA Buy – Smart Scale-In Zone
- RSI < 30 → oversold.
- Close < lower Bollinger Band → price has broken below its typical volatility envelope.
- DCA Sell – Overbought/Distribution Zone
- RSI > 70 → overbought.
- Close > upper Bollinger Band → price is extended far above the mean.
### 4.2 Visual Representation on the Chart
- Green “DCA” Label Below Candle
- Shape: `labelup`.
- Color: lime background, white text.
- Meaning: statistically attractive level for laddered spot entries or short exits.
- Red “SELL” Label Above Candle
- Warning that the market is in an extended, overbought condition.
- Suitable for profit-taking on longs or considering short entries (with proper confluence and risk management).
- Light Green Background (`bgcolor`)
- When `dca_buy` is true, the candle background turns very light green (high transparency).
- This helps visually identify DCA Zones across the chart at a glance.
### 4.3 Practical Use in Trading
#### Spot Trading
Used to build a better average entry price:
- Every time a DCA label appears, allocate a fixed portion of capital (e.g., 2–5%).
- Combining DCA signals with:
- Green OBs (Demand Zones), and/or
- The Volume Profile POC
makes the zone structurally more important.
#### Futures Trading
- Longs
- Use DCA Buy signals as low-risk zones for opening or adding to longs when:
- Price is inside a green OB, or
- The Dashboard already leans LONG.
- Shorts
- Use DCA Sell signals as:
- Exit zones for longs, or
- Areas to initiate shorts with stops above structural highs.
## Chapter 5 – Volume Profile (Visible Range Simulation)
### 5.1 Concept
Traditional volume (histogram under the chart) shows volume over time.
Volume Profile shows volume by price level:
- At which prices has the highest trading activity occurred?
- Where did buyers and sellers agree the most (High Volume Nodes – HVNs)?
- Where did price move quickly due to low participation (Low Volume Nodes – LVNs)?
### 5.2 Implementation in the Script
Executed only when `show_vp` is enabled and on the last bar:
1. The last `vp_lookback` bars (default 150) are processed.
2. The minimum low and maximum high over this window define the price range.
3. This price range is divided into `vp_rows` segments (e.g., 30 rows).
4. For each row:
- All bars are scanned.
- If the mid-price `(high + low ) / 2` falls inside a row, that bar’s volume is added to the row total.
5. The row with the greatest volume is stored as `max_vol_idx` (the POC row).
6. For each row, a volume box is drawn on the right side of the chart.
### 5.3 Color Scheme
- Semi-transparent Orange
- The row with the maximum volume – the Point of Control (POC).
- Represents the strongest support/resistance level from a volume perspective.
- Semi-transparent Blue
- Other volume rows.
- The taller the bar → the higher the volume → the stronger the interest at that price band.
### 5.4 Trading Applications
- If price is above POC and retraces back into it:
→ POC often acts as support, suitable for long setups.
- If price is below POC and rallies into it:
→ POC often acts as resistance, suitable for short setups or profit-taking.
HVNs (Tall Blue Bars)
- Represent areas of equilibrium where the market has spent time and traded heavily.
- Price tends to consolidate here before choosing a direction.
LVNs (Short or Nearly Empty Bars)
- Represent low participation zones.
- Price often moves quickly through these areas – useful for targeting fast moves.
## Chapter 6 – Wyckoff Helper – Spring
### 6.1 Spring Concept
In the Wyckoff framework:
- A Spring is a false break of support.
- The market briefly trades below a well-defined support level, triggers stop losses,
then sharply reverses upward as institutional buyers absorb liquidity.
This movement:
- Clears out weak hands (retail sellers).
- Provides large players with liquidity to enter long positions.
- Often initiates a new uptrend.
### 6.2 Code Logic
Conditions for a Spring:
1. The current low is lower than the lowest low of the previous 50 bars
→ apparent break of a long-standing support.
2. The bar closes bullish (Close > Open)
→ the breakdown was rejected.
3. Volume is significantly elevated:
→ `volume > 2 × volume_MA` (Ultra Volume).
When all conditions are met and `show_wyc` is enabled:
- A pink diamond is plotted below the bar,
- With the label “Spring” – one of the strongest long signals in this system.
### 6.3 Trading Use
- After a valid Spring, markets frequently enter a meaningful bullish phase.
- The highest quality setups occur when:
- The Spring forms inside a green Order Block, and
- Near or on the Volume Profile POC.
Entries:
- At the close of the Spring bar, or
- On the first pullback into the mid-range of the Spring candle.
Stop-loss:
- Slightly below the Spring’s lowest point (wick low plus a small buffer).
## Chapter 7 – Confluence Engine & Dashboard
### 7.1 Scoring Logic
For each bar, the script:
1. Resets `score` to 0.
2. Adjusts the score based on different signals.
SMC Contribution
if show_smc
if is_in_demand
score += 1
if is_in_supply
score -= 1
- Being in Demand → `+1`
- Being in Supply → `-1`
DCA Contribution
if show_dca
if dca_buy
score += 2
if dca_sell
score -= 2
- DCA Buy → `+2` (strong, statistically driven long signal)
- DCA Sell → `-2`
Wyckoff Spring Contribution
if show_wyc
if wyc_spring
score += 2
- Spring → `+2` (entry of strong money)
### 7.2 Mapping Score to Dashboard Signal
- score ≥ 2 → STRONG LONG 🚀
Multiple bullish conditions aligned.
- score = 1 → WEAK LONG ↗
Some bullish bias, but only one layer clearly positive.
- score = 0 → NEUTRAL / WAIT
Rough balance between buying and selling forces; staying flat is usually preferable.
- score = -1 → WEAK SHORT ↘
Mild bearish bias, suited for cautious or short-term plays.
- score ≤ -2 → STRONG SHORT 🩸
Convergence of several bearish signals.
### 7.3 Dashboard Structure
The dashboard is a two-column table:
- Row 0
- Column 0: `"Mars Signals"` – black background, white text.
- Column 1: `"UIS v3.0"` – black background, yellow text.
- Row 1
- Column 0: `"Price:"` (light grey background).
- Column 1: current closing price (`close`) with a semi-transparent blue background.
- Row 2
- Column 0: `"SMC:"`
- Column 1:
- `"ON"` (green) if `show_smc = true`
- `"OFF"` (grey) otherwise.
- Row 3
- Column 0: `"DCA:"`
- Column 1:
- `"ON"` (green) if `show_dca = true`
- `"OFF"` (grey) otherwise.
- Row 4
- Column 0: `"Signal:"`
- Column 1: signal text (`status_txt`) with background color `status_col`
(green, red, teal, maroon, etc.)
- If `show_rec = false`, these cells are cleared.
## Chapter 8 – Visual Legend (Colors, Shapes & Actions)
For quick reading inside TradingView, the visual elements are described line by line instead of a table.
Chart Element: Green Box
Color / Shape: Transparent green rectangle
Core Meaning: Bullish Order Block (Demand Zone)
Suggested Trader Response: Look for longs, Smart DCA adds, closing or reducing shorts.
Chart Element: Red Box
Color / Shape: Transparent red rectangle
Core Meaning: Bearish Order Block (Supply Zone)
Suggested Trader Response: Look for shorts, or take profit on existing longs.
Chart Element: Yellow Area
Color / Shape: Transparent yellow zone
Core Meaning: Bullish FVG / upside imbalance
Suggested Trader Response: Short take-profit zone or expected rebalance area.
Chart Element: Purple Area
Color / Shape: Transparent purple zone
Core Meaning: Bearish FVG / downside imbalance
Suggested Trader Response: Long take-profit zone or temporary supply region.
Chart Element: Green "DCA" Label
Color / Shape: Green label with white text, plotted below the candle
Core Meaning: Smart ladder-in buy zone, DCA buy opportunity
Suggested Trader Response: Spot DCA entry, partial short exit.
Chart Element: Red "SELL" Label
Color / Shape: Red label with white text, plotted above the candle
Core Meaning: Overbought / distribution zone
Suggested Trader Response: Take profit on longs, consider initiating shorts.
Chart Element: Light Green Background (bgcolor)
Color / Shape: Very transparent light-green background behind bars
Core Meaning: Active DCA Buy zone
Suggested Trader Response: Treat as a discount zone on the chart.
Chart Element: Orange Bar on Right
Color / Shape: Transparent orange horizontal bar in the volume profile
Core Meaning: POC – price with highest traded volume
Suggested Trader Response: Strong support or resistance; key reference level.
Chart Element: Blue Bars on Right
Color / Shape: Transparent blue horizontal bars in the volume profile
Core Meaning: Other volume levels, showing high-volume and low-volume nodes
Suggested Trader Response: Use to identify balance zones (HVN) and fast-move corridors (LVN).
Chart Element: Pink "Spring" Diamond
Color / Shape: Pink diamond with white text below the candle
Core Meaning: Wyckoff Spring – liquidity grab and potential major bullish reversal
Suggested Trader Response: One of the strongest long signals in the suite; look for high-quality long setups with tight risk.
Chart Element: STRONG LONG in Dashboard
Color / Shape: Green background, white text in the Signal row
Core Meaning: Multiple bullish layers in confluence
Suggested Trader Response: Consider initiating or increasing longs with strict risk management.
Chart Element: STRONG SHORT in Dashboard
Color / Shape: Red background, white text in the Signal row
Core Meaning: Multiple bearish layers in confluence
Suggested Trader Response: Consider initiating or increasing shorts with a logical, well-placed stop.
## Chapter 9 – Timeframe-Based Trading Playbook
### 9.1 Timeframe Selection
- Scalping
- Timeframes: 1M, 5M, 15M
- Objective: fast intraday moves (minutes to a few hours).
- Recommendation: focus on SMC + Wyckoff.
Smart DCA on very low timeframes may introduce excessive noise.
- Day Trading
- Timeframes: 15M, 1H, 4H
- Provides a good balance between signal quality and frequency.
- Recommendation: use the full stack – SMC + DCA + Volume Profile + Wyckoff + Dashboard.
- Swing Trading & Position Investing
- Timeframes: Daily, Weekly
- Emphasis on Smart DCA + Volume Profile.
- SMC and Wyckoff are used mainly to fine-tune swing entries within larger trends.
### 9.2 Scenario A – Scalping Long
Example: 5-Minute Chart
1. Price is declining into a green OB (Bullish Demand).
2. A candle with a long lower wick and bullish close (Pin Bar / Rejection) forms inside the OB.
3. A Spring diamond appears below the same candle → very strong confluence.
4. The Dashboard shows at least WEAK LONG ↗, ideally STRONG LONG 🚀.
5. Entry:
- On the close of the confirmation candle, or
- On the first pullback into the mid-range of that candle.
6. Stop-loss:
- Slightly below the OB.
7. Targets:
- Nearby bearish FVG above, and/or
- The next red OB.
### 9.3 Scenario B – Day-Trading Short
Recommended Timeframes: 1H or 4H
1. The market completes a strong impulsive move upward.
2. Price enters a red Order Block (Supply).
3. In the same zone, a purple FVG appears or remains unfilled.
4. On a lower timeframe (e.g., 15M), RSI enters overbought territory and a DCA Sell signal appears.
5. The main timeframe Dashboard (1H) shows WEAK SHORT ↘ or STRONG SHORT 🩸.
Trade Plan
- Open a short near the upper boundary of the red OB.
- Place the stop above the OB or above the last swing high.
- Targets:
- A yellow FVG lower on the chart, and/or
- The next green OB (Demand) below.
### 9.4 Scenario C – Swing / Investment with Smart DCA
Timeframes: Daily / Weekly
1. On the daily or weekly chart, each time a green “DCA” label appears:
- Allocate a fixed fraction of your capital (e.g., 3–5%) to that asset.
2. Check whether this DCA zone aligns with the orange POC of the Volume Profile:
- If yes → the quality of the entry zone is significantly higher.
3. If the DCA signal sits inside a daily green OB, the probability of a medium-term bottom increases.
4. Always build the position laddered, never all-in at a single price.
Exits for investors:
- Near weekly red OBs or large purple FVG zones.
- Ideally via partial profit-taking rather than closing 100% at once.
### 9.5 Case Study 1 – BTCUSDT (15-Minute)
- Context: Price has sold off down towards 65,000 USD.
- A green OB had previously formed at that level.
- Near the lower boundary of this OB, a partially filled yellow FVG is present.
- As price returns to this region, a Spring appears.
- The Dashboard shifts from NEUTRAL / WAIT to WEAK LONG ↗.
Plan
- Enter a long near the OB low.
- Place stop below the Spring low.
- First target: a purple FVG around 66,200.
- Second (optional) target: the first red OB above that level.
### 9.6 Case Study 2 – Meme Coin (PEPE – 4H)
- After a strong pump, price enters a corrective phase.
- On the 4H chart, RSI drops below 30; price breaks below the lower Bollinger Band → a DCA label prints.
- The Volume Profile shows the POC at approximately the same level.
- The Dashboard displays STRONG LONG 🚀.
Plan
- Execute laddered buys in the combined DCA + POC zone.
- Place a protective stop below the last significant swing low.
- Target: an expected 20–30% upside move towards the next red OB or purple FVG.
## Chapter 10 – Risk Management, Psychology & Advanced Tuning
### 10.1 Risk Management
No signal, regardless of its strength, replaces risk control.
Recommendations:
- In futures, do not expose more than 1–3% of account equity to risk per trade.
- Adjust leverage to the volatility of the instrument (lower leverage for highly volatile altcoins).
- Place stop-losses in zones where the idea is clearly invalidated:
- Below/above the relevant Order Block or Spring, not randomly in the middle of the structure.
### 10.2 Market-Specific Parameter Tuning
- Calmer Markets (e.g., major FX pairs)
- `ob_period`: 3–5.
- `bb_mult`: 2.0 is usually sufficient.
- Highly Volatile Markets (Crypto, news-driven assets)
- `ob_period`: 7–10 to highlight only the most robust OBs.
- `bb_mult`: 2.5–3.0 so that only extreme deviations trigger DCA.
- `vol_ma_len`: increase (e.g., to ~30) so that Spring triggers only on truly exceptional
volume spikes.
### 10.3 Trading Psychology
- STRONG LONG 🚀 does not mean “risk-free”.
It means the probability of a successful long, given the model’s logic, is higher than average.
- Treat Mars Signals as a confirmation and context system, not a full replacement for your own decision-making.
- Example of disciplined thinking:
- The Dashboard prints STRONG LONG,
- But price is simultaneously testing a multi-month macro resistance or a major negative news event is imminent,
- In such cases, trade smaller, widen stops appropriately, or skip the trade.
## Chapter 11 – Technical Notes & FAQ
### 11.1 Does the Script Repaint?
- Order Blocks and Springs are based on completed pivot structures and confirmed candles.
- Until a pivot is confirmed, an OB does not exist; after confirmation, behavior is stable under classic SMC assumptions.
- The script is designed to be structurally consistent rather than repainting signals arbitrarily.
### 11.2 Computational Load of Volume Profile
- On the last bar, the script processes up to `vp_lookback` bars × `vp_rows` rows.
- On very low timeframes with heavy zooming, this can become demanding.
- If you experience performance issues:
- Reduce `vp_lookback` or `vp_rows`, or
- Temporarily disable Volume Profile (`show_vp = false`).
### 11.3 Multi-Timeframe Behavior
- This version of the script is not internally multi-timeframe.
All logic (OB, DCA, Spring, Volume Profile) is computed on the active timeframe only.
- Practical workflow:
- Analyze overall structure and key zones on higher timeframes (4H / Daily).
- Use lower timeframes (15M / 1H) with the same tool for timing entries and exits.
## Conclusion
Mars Signals – Ultimate Institutional Suite v3.0 (Joker) is a multi-layer trading framework that unifies:
- Price structure (Order Blocks & FVG),
- Statistical behavior (Smart DCA via RSI + Bollinger),
- Volume distribution by price (Volume Profile with POC, HVN, LVN),
- Liquidity events (Wyckoff Spring),
into a single, coherent system driven by a transparent Confluence Scoring Engine.
The final output is presented in clear, actionable language:
> STRONG LONG / WEAK LONG / NEUTRAL / WEAK SHORT / STRONG SHORT
The system is designed to support professional decision-making, not to replace it.
Used together with strict risk management and disciplined execution,
Mars Signals – UIS v3.0 (Joker) can serve as a central reference manual and operational guide
for your trading workflow, from scalping to swing and investment positioning.
Advanced Triple Strategy ScalperHere are the three scalping strategies presented in the video "3 Scalping Strategies That Work Every Day (Backtested & Proven)" by Asia Forex Mentor – Ezekiel Chew:
### Scalper’s Trend Filter (Triple EMA)
This strategy uses three EMAs (25, 50, 100) on the 5-minute chart to filter high-probability trades aligned with momentum .
- Only trade when all three EMAs are angled in the same direction and clearly separated (no crossing or tangling) .
- Enter when price pulls back toward the 25 or 50 EMA and then bounces back toward the 25 EMA, but do not enter if price closes below the 100 EMA .
- Set stop-loss just below the 50 EMA or swing low and aim for a risk-to-reward ratio of 1:1.5 .
### Flip Zone Trap (Reversal Catching)
This method identifies precise reversal moments where market structure shifts from weakness to strength .
- Use the 15-min chart to locate key support or resistance zones where price previously reacted .
- Wait for price to stop making lower lows and begin making higher highs (or vice versa for shorts); confirm with a trendline break AND follow-through (higher lows & highs within 5-7 candles) .
- Use confirmation candles (bullish engulfing, pin bar rejection) at the zone before entry .
### Liquidity Shift Trigger (Smart Money Trap)
This system leverages institutional stop hunts and liquidity sweeps at key zones for sniper entries .
- Start with a 15-min chart to identify structure breaks and points of interest (order blocks, flip zones, demand zones) .
- Drop to 1-min chart and wait for price to enter the refined zone and sweep liquidity (sharp wick/spike below/above key level) .
- Once liquidity is swept, wait for a clean structure shift (break of most recent internal high or low) within 5–6 candles—if confirmed, refine entry to the candle that caused the break and enter when price returns to that candle with a strong reaction .
***
### Practical Application
- These strategies are systematic, rule-based, and designed to cut out fake moves, avoid early stop-outs, and align entries with momentum and institutional activity .
- Perfect for short timeframes and volatile pairs like XAUUSD, especially if paired with additional confirmation from other technical analysis tools .
All three strategies emphasize filtering noise, waiting for momentum/trend confirmation, and avoiding impulsive entries—key principles for consistent scalping success
Multi EMA + Indicators + Mini-Dashboard + Reversals v6📘 Multi EMA + Indicators + Mini-Dashboard + Reversals v6
🧩 Overview
This indicator is a multi-EMA setup that combines trend, momentum, and reversal analysis in a single visual framework.
It integrates four exponential moving averages (EMAs), key oscillators (RSI, MACD, Stochastic, CCI), volatility filtering (ATR), and a dynamic mini-dashboard that summarizes all signals in real time.
Its purpose is to help traders visually confirm trend alignment, filter valid entries, and identify possible trend continuation or reversal points.
It can display buy/sell arrows, detect reversal candles, and issue alerts when trading conditions are met.
⚙️ Core Components
1. Moving Averages (EMA Setup)
EMA1 (fast) and EMA2 (medium) define the short-term trend and trigger bias.
When the price is above both EMAs → bullish bias.
When below → bearish bias.
EMA3 and EMA4 act as trend filters. Their slopes (up or down) confirm overall momentum and help validate signals.
Each EMA has customizable lengths, sources, and colors for up/down trends.
This “EMA stack” is the foundation of the setup — a structured trend-following framework that adapts to market speed and volatility.
2. Momentum and Confirmation Filters
Each indicator can be individually enabled or disabled for flexibility.
RSI: confirms direction (above/below 50).
MACD: detects momentum crossover (MACD > Signal for bullish confirmation).
Stochastic: identifies trend continuation (K > D for longs, K < D for shorts).
CCI: adds trend bias above/below a threshold.
ATR Filter: filters out small, low-volatility candles to reduce noise.
You can activate only the filters that fit your trading plan — for instance, trend traders often use RSI and MACD, while scalpers may rely on Stochastic and ATR.
3. Reversal Detection
The indicator includes an optional Reversal Section that independently detects potential turning points.
It combines multiple configurable criteria:
Candlestick patterns (Bullish Hammer, Shooting Star).
Large Candle filter — detects unusually large bars (relative to close).
Price-to-EMA distance — identifies overextended moves that might revert.
RSI Divergence — detects potential momentum shifts.
RSI Overbought/Oversold zones (70/30 by default).
Doji Candles — sign of indecision.
A bullish or bearish reversal signal appears when enough selected criteria are met.
All sub-modules can be toggled on/off individually, giving you full control over sensitivity.
4. Signal Logic
Buy and sell signals are triggered when EMA alignment and the chosen confirmations agree:
Buy Signal
→ Price above EMA1 & EMA2
→ Confirmations (RSI/MACD/Stoch/CCI/ATR) pass
→ Trend filters (EMA3/EMA4) point upward
Sell Signal
→ Price below EMA1 & EMA2
→ Confirmations align bearishly
→ Trend filters (EMA3/EMA4) slope downward
Reversal signals can appear independently, even against the current EMA trend, depending on your settings.
5. Visual Dashboard
A mini-dashboard appears near the chart showing:
Current trade bias (LONG / SHORT / NEUTRAL)
EMA3 and EMA4 trend directions (↑ / ↓)
Quick visual bars (🟩 / 🟥) for each filter: RSI, MACD, Stoch, ATR, CCI, EMA filters
Reversal criteria status (Doji, RSI divergence, candle size, etc.)
This panel gives you a compact overview of all indicator states at a glance.
The color of the panel changes dynamically — green for bullish, red for bearish, gray for neutral.
6. Alerts
Built-in alerts allow automation or notifications:
Buy Alert
Sell Alert
Reversal Buy
Reversal Sell
You can connect these alerts to TradingView notifications or external bots for semi-automated execution.
💡 How to Use
✅ Trend-Following Setup
Focus on trades in the direction of EMA1 & EMA2.
Confirm with EMA3 & EMA4 trending in the same direction.
Use RSI/MACD/Stoch filters to ensure momentum supports the trade.
Avoid entries when ATR filter indicates low volatility.
🔄 Reversal Setup
Enable the Reversal section for potential tops/bottoms.
Look for reversal buy signals near support zones or after strong downtrends.
Use RSI divergence or Doji + Hammer signals as confirmation.
Combine with key chart areas (supply/demand or previous swing levels).
⚖️ Combination Approach
Trade continuation signals when all EMAs are aligned and filters are green.
Trade reversals only when at a key area (support/resistance) and confirmed by reversal conditions.
Always check higher-timeframe bias before entering a trade.
🧭 Practical Tips
Use different EMA sets for different timeframes:
9/21/50/100 for swing or trend trades.
5/13/34/89 for intraday scalping.
Turn off filters you don’t use to reduce lag.
Always validate signals with price structure, not just indicator alignment.
Practice in replay mode before live trading.
🗺️ Key Chart Confluence (Highly Recommended)
Although the indicator provides structured signals, its best use is in confluence with:
Support and resistance levels
Supply/demand zones
Trendlines and channels
Liquidity pools
Volume clusters
Signals aligned with strong key areas on the chart tend to have greater reliability than isolated indicator triggers.
I use EMA 1 - 20 Open ; EMA 2 - 20 Close ; EMA 3 - 50 ; EMA 4 - 200 or 100 , but that's me...
⚠️ Important Disclaimer
This indicator is a technical tool, not a guarantee of results.
Trading involves risk, and no signal is ever 100% accurate.
Every trader should develop a personal strategy, use proper risk management, and adapt settings to their instrument and timeframe.
Always combine indicator signals with key chart areas, higher-timeframe context, and your own analysis before taking a trade.
RSI MTF Table - 12 Pairs (1,5,15)
The relative strength index measures the speed and magnitude of an asset's recent price changes. Therefore, it is considered a momentum indicator in technical analysis. Essentially, the RSI is the ratio of the days an asset's value increases to decreases over a given period.
Generally speaking, if the RSI is around 50, we do not expect strong movements. RSI above 65 or below 35 are areas we expect. In this context, this chart and the general momentum in 1-5-15 minutes allow us to quickly determine the parity we will trade. It is useful for intraday trading and scalping.
ADX Color Change by BehemothI find this tool to be the most valuable and accurate entry point indicator along with moving averages and the VWAP.
ADX Color Indicator - Controls & Intraday Trading Benefits
Indicator Controls:
1. ADX Length (default: 14)
- Controls the calculation period for ADX
- Lower values (7-10) = more sensitive, faster signals (better for scalping)
- Higher values (14-20) = smoother, fewer false signals (better for swing trades)
- *Intraday tip:* Try 10-14 for most intraday timeframes
2. Show Threshold Levels (default: On)
- Displays the 20 and 25 horizontal lines
- Helps you quickly identify when ADX crosses key strength levels
3. Use Custom Timeframe (default: Off)
- Allows viewing higher timeframe ADX on lower timeframe charts
- *Example:* Trade on 5-min chart but see 15-min or 1-hour ADX
4. Custom Timeframe
- Select any timeframe: 1m, 5m, 15m, 30m, 1H, 4H, D, etc.
- *Intraday tip:* Use 15m or 1H ADX on 5m charts for better trend context
5. Show +DI and -DI (default: Off)
- Shows directional movement indicators
- Green line (+DI) > Red line (-DI) = bullish trend
- Red line (-DI) > Green line (+DI) = bearish trend
6. Show Background Zon es (default: Off)
- Visual background colors for quick trend strength identification
- Green = strong trend (ADX > 25)
- Yellow = moderate trend (ADX 20-25)
Intraday Trading Benefits:
1. Avoid Choppy Markets
- When ADX < 20 (no background color), market is ranging
- Reduces false breakout trades and whipsaws
- Save time and capital by stepping aside during low-quality setups
2. Identify High-Probability Trend Trades
- **Green line + Green zone** = strong trend building, look for pullback entries
- Yellow line crossing above 20 = early trend formation signal
- Catch trends early when ADX starts rising from below 20
3. Multi-Timeframe Analysis
- Use custom timeframe to align with higher timeframe trends
- *Example:* If 1H ADX shows green (strong trend), take breakout trades on 5m chart in same direction
- Increases win rate by trading with the bigger picture
4. Exit Signals
- When ADX turns red (falling), trend is weakening
- Consider tightening stops or taking profits
- Avoid entering new positions when ADX is declining
5. Quick Visual Confirmation
- Color coding eliminates need to analyze numbers
- Instant recognition: Green = go, Yellow = caution, Red = trend dying
- Faster decision-making during fast market moves
6. Scalping Strategy
- Set ADX length to 7-10 for sensitive signals
- Only scalp when ADX is rising (blue, yellow, or green)
- Exit when ADX turns red
7. Breakout Confirmation
- Wait for ADX to rise above 20 after a breakout
- Filters false breakouts in ranging markets
- Yellow or green color confirms momentum behind the move
Optimal Intraday Settings:
- Day Trading (5-15 min charts):** ADX Length = 10-14
- Scalping (1-5 min charts):** ADX Length = 7-10, watch custom 15m timeframe
- Swing Intraday (30min-1H charts):** ADX Length = 14-20
Simple Trading Rules:
✅ Trade: ADX rising + above 20 (yellow or green)
⚠️ Caution: ADX flat or just crossed 20
❌ Avoid:*ADX falling (red) or below 20
The key advantage is staying out of low-quality, choppy price action which is where most intraday traders lose money!
Kalman VWAP Filter [BackQuant]Kalman VWAP Filter
A precision-engineered price estimator that fuses Kalman filtering with the Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) to create a smooth, adaptive representation of fair value. This hybrid model intelligently balances responsiveness and stability, tracking trend shifts with minimal noise while maintaining a statistically grounded link to volume distribution.
If you would like to see my original Kalman Filter, please find it here:
Concept overview
The Kalman VWAP Filter is built on two core ideas from quantitative finance and control theory:
Kalman filtering — a recursive Bayesian estimator used to infer the true underlying state of a noisy system (in this case, fair price).
VWAP anchoring — a dynamic reference that weights price by traded volume, representing where the majority of transactions have occurred.
By merging these concepts, the filter produces a line that behaves like a "smart moving average": smooth when noise is high, fast when markets trend, and self-adjusting based on both market structure and user-defined noise parameters.
How it works
Measurement blend : Combines the chosen Price Source (e.g., close or hlc3) with either a Session VWAP or a Rolling VWAP baseline. The VWAP Weight input controls how much the filter trusts traded volume versus price movement.
Kalman recursion : Each bar updates an internal "state estimate" using the Kalman gain, which determines how much to trust new observations vs. the prior state.
Noise parameters :
Process Noise controls agility — higher values make the filter more responsive but also more volatile.
Measurement Noise controls smoothness — higher values make it steadier but slower to adapt.
Filter order (N) : Defines how many parallel state estimates are used. Larger orders yield smoother output by layering multiple one-dimensional Kalman passes.
Final output : A refined price trajectory that captures VWAP-adjusted fair value while dynamically adjusting to real-time volatility and order flow.
Why this matters
Most smoothing techniques (EMA, SMA, Hull) trade off lag for smoothness. Kalman filtering, however, adaptively rebalances that tradeoff each bar using probabilistic weighting, allowing it to follow market state changes more efficiently. Anchoring it to VWAP integrates microstructure context — capturing where liquidity truly lies rather than only where price moves.
Use cases
Trend tracking : Color-coded candle painting highlights shifts in slope direction, revealing early trend transitions.
Fair value mapping : The line represents a continuously updated equilibrium price between raw price action and VWAP flow.
Adaptive moving average replacement : Outperforms static MAs in variable volatility regimes by self-adjusting smoothness.
Execution & reversion logic : When price diverges from the Kalman VWAP, it may indicate short-term imbalance or overextension relative to volume-adjusted fair value.
Cross-signal framework : Use with standard VWAP or other filters to identify convergence or divergence between liquidity-weighted and state-estimated prices.
Parameter guidance
Process Noise : 0.01–0.05 for swing traders, 0.1–0.2 for intraday scalping.
Measurement Noise : 2–5 for normal use, 8+ for very smooth tracking.
VWAP Weight : 0.2–0.4 balances both price and VWAP influence; 1.0 locks output directly to VWAP dynamics.
Filter Order (N) : 3–5 for reactive short-term filters; 8–10 for smoother institutional-style baselines.
Interpretation
When price > Kalman VWAP and slope is positive → bullish pressure; buyers dominate above fair value.
When price < Kalman VWAP and slope is negative → bearish pressure; sellers dominate below fair value.
Convergence of price and Kalman VWAP often signals equilibrium; strong divergence suggests imbalance.
Crosses between Kalman VWAP and the base VWAP can hint at shifts in short-term vs. long-term liquidity control.
Summary
The Kalman VWAP Filter blends statistical estimation with market microstructure awareness, offering a refined alternative to static smoothing indicators. It adapts in real time to volatility and order flow, helping traders visualize balance, transition, and momentum through a lens of probabilistic fair value rather than simple price averaging.
Ehlers Autocorrelation Periodogram (EACP)# EACP: Ehlers Autocorrelation Periodogram
## Overview and Purpose
Developed by John F. Ehlers (Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities, Sep 2016), the Ehlers Autocorrelation Periodogram (EACP) estimates the dominant market cycle by projecting normalized autocorrelation coefficients onto Fourier basis functions. The indicator blends a roofing filter (high-pass + Super Smoother) with a compact periodogram, yielding low-latency dominant cycle detection suitable for adaptive trading systems. Compared with Hilbert-based methods, the autocorrelation approach resists aliasing and maintains stability in noisy price data.
EACP answers a central question in cycle analysis: “What period currently dominates the market?” It prioritizes spectral power concentration, enabling downstream tools (adaptive moving averages, oscillators) to adjust responsively without the lag present in sliding-window techniques.
## Core Concepts
* **Roofing Filter:** High-pass plus Super Smoother combination removes low-frequency drift while limiting aliasing.
* **Pearson Autocorrelation:** Computes normalized lag correlation to remove amplitude bias.
* **Fourier Projection:** Sums cosine and sine terms of autocorrelation to approximate spectral energy.
* **Gain Normalization:** Automatic gain control prevents stale peaks from dominating power estimates.
* **Warmup Compensation:** Exponential correction guarantees valid output from the very first bar.
## Implementation Notes
**This is not a strict implementation of the TASC September 2016 specification.** It is a more advanced evolution combining the core 2016 concept with techniques Ehlers introduced later. The fundamental Wiener-Khinchin theorem (power spectral density = Fourier transform of autocorrelation) is correctly implemented, but key implementation details differ:
### Differences from Original 2016 TASC Article
1. **Dominant Cycle Calculation:**
- **2016 TASC:** Uses peak-finding to identify the period with maximum power
- **This Implementation:** Uses Center of Gravity (COG) weighted average over bins where power ≥ 0.5
- **Rationale:** COG provides smoother transitions and reduces susceptibility to noise spikes
2. **Roofing Filter:**
- **2016 TASC:** Simple first-order high-pass filter
- **This Implementation:** Canonical 2-pole high-pass with √2 factor followed by Super Smoother bandpass
- **Formula:** `hp := (1-α/2)²·(p-2p +p ) + 2(1-α)·hp - (1-α)²·hp `
- **Rationale:** Evolved filtering provides better attenuation and phase characteristics
3. **Normalized Power Reporting:**
- **2016 TASC:** Reports peak power across all periods
- **This Implementation:** Reports power specifically at the dominant period
- **Rationale:** Provides more meaningful correlation between dominant cycle strength and normalized power
4. **Automatic Gain Control (AGC):**
- Uses decay factor `K = 10^(-0.15/diff)` where `diff = maxPeriod - minPeriod`
- Ensures K < 1 for proper exponential decay of historical peaks
- Prevents stale peaks from dominating current power estimates
### Performance Characteristics
- **Complexity:** O(N²) where N = (maxPeriod - minPeriod)
- **Implementation:** Uses `var` arrays with native PineScript historical operator ` `
- **Warmup:** Exponential compensation (§2 pattern) ensures valid output from bar 1
### Related Implementations
This refined approach aligns with:
- TradingView TASC 2025.02 implementation by blackcat1402
- Modern Ehlers cycle analysis techniques post-2016
- Evolved filtering methods from *Cycle Analytics for Traders*
The code is mathematically sound and production-ready, representing a refined version of the autocorrelation periodogram concept rather than a literal translation of the 2016 article.
## Common Settings and Parameters
| Parameter | Default | Function | When to Adjust |
|-----------|---------|----------|---------------|
| Min Period | 8 | Lower bound of candidate cycles | Increase to ignore microstructure noise; decrease for scalping. |
| Max Period | 48 | Upper bound of candidate cycles | Increase for swing analysis; decrease for intraday focus. |
| Autocorrelation Length | 3 | Averaging window for Pearson correlation | Set to 0 to match lag, or enlarge for smoother spectra. |
| Enhance Resolution | true | Cubic emphasis to highlight peaks | Disable when a flatter spectrum is desired for diagnostics. |
**Pro Tip:** Keep `(maxPeriod - minPeriod)` ≤ 64 to control $O(n^2)$ inner loops and maintain responsiveness on lower timeframes.
## Calculation and Mathematical Foundation
**Explanation:**
1. Apply roofing filter to `source` using coefficients $\alpha_1$, $a_1$, $b_1$, $c_1$, $c_2$, $c_3$.
2. For each lag $L$ compute Pearson correlation $r_L$ over window $M$ (default $L$).
3. For each period $p$, project onto Fourier basis:
$C_p=\sum_{n=2}^{N} r_n \cos\left(\frac{2\pi n}{p}\right)$ and $S_p=\sum_{n=2}^{N} r_n \sin\left(\frac{2\pi n}{p}\right)$.
4. Power $P_p=C_p^2+S_p^2$, smoothed then normalized via adaptive peak tracking.
5. Dominant cycle $D=\frac{\sum p\,\tilde P_p}{\sum \tilde P_p}$ over bins where $\tilde P_p≥0.5$, warmup-compensated.
**Technical formula:**
```
Step 1: hp_t = ((1-α₁)/2)(src_t - src_{t-1}) + α₁ hp_{t-1}
Step 2: filt_t = c₁(hp_t + hp_{t-1})/2 + c₂ filt_{t-1} + c₃ filt_{t-2}
Step 3: r_L = (M Σxy - Σx Σy) / √
Step 4: P_p = (Σ_{n=2}^{N} r_n cos(2πn/p))² + (Σ_{n=2}^{N} r_n sin(2πn/p))²
Step 5: D = Σ_{p∈Ω} p · ĤP_p / Σ_{p∈Ω} ĤP_p with warmup compensation
```
> 🔍 **Technical Note:** Warmup uses $c = 1 / (1 - (1 - \alpha)^{k})$ to scale early-cycle estimates, preventing low values during initial bars.
## Interpretation Details
- **Primary Dominant Cycle:**
- High $D$ (e.g., > 30) implies slow regime; adaptive MAs should lengthen.
- Low $D$ (e.g., < 15) signals rapid oscillations; shorten lookback windows.
- **Normalized Power:**
- Values > 0.8 indicate strong cycle confidence; consider cyclical strategies.
- Values < 0.3 warn of flat spectra; favor trend or volatility approaches.
- **Regime Shifts:**
- Rapid drop in $D$ alongside rising power often precedes volatility expansion.
- Divergence between $D$ and price swings may highlight upcoming breakouts.
## Limitations and Considerations
- **Spectral Leakage:** Limited lag range can smear peaks during abrupt volatility shifts.
- **O(n²) Segment:** Although constrained (≤ 60 loops), wide period spans increase computation.
- **Stationarity Assumption:** Autocorrelation presumes quasi-stationary cycles; regime changes reduce accuracy.
- **Latency in Noise:** Even with roofing, extremely noisy assets may require higher `avgLength`.
- **Downtrend Bias:** Negative trends may clip high-pass output; ensure preprocessing retains signal.
## References
* Ehlers, J. F. (2016). “Past Market Cycles.” *Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities*, 34(9), 52-55.
* Thinkorswim Learning Center. “Ehlers Autocorrelation Periodogram.”
* Fab MacCallini. “autocorrPeriodogram.R.” GitHub repository.
* QuantStrat TradeR Blog. “Autocorrelation Periodogram for Adaptive Lookbacks.”
* TradingView Script by blackcat1402. “Ehlers Autocorrelation Periodogram (Updated).”
COT IndexTHE HIDDEN INTELLIGENCE IN FUTURES MARKETS
What if you could see what the smartest players in the futures markets are doing before the crowd catches on? While retail traders chase momentum indicators and moving averages, obsess over Japanese candlestick patterns, and debate whether the RSI should be set to fourteen or twenty-one periods, institutional players leave footprints in the sand through their mandatory reporting to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. These footprints, published weekly in the Commitment of Traders reports, have been hiding in plain sight for decades, available to anyone with an internet connection, yet remarkably few traders understand how to interpret them correctly. The COT Index indicator transforms this raw institutional positioning data into actionable trading signals, bringing Wall Street intelligence to your trading screen without requiring expensive Bloomberg terminals or insider connections.
The uncomfortable truth is this: Most retail traders operate in a binary world. Long or short. Buy or sell. They apply technical analysis to individual positions, constrained by limited capital that forces them to concentrate risk in single directional bets. Meanwhile, institutional traders operate in an entirely different dimension. They manage portfolios dynamically weighted across multiple markets, adjusting exposure based on evolving market conditions, correlation shifts, and risk assessments that retail traders never see. A hedge fund might be simultaneously long gold, short oil, neutral on copper, and overweight agricultural commodities, with position sizes calibrated to volatility and portfolio Greeks. When they increase gold exposure from five percent to eight percent of portfolio allocation, this rebalancing decision reflects sophisticated analysis of opportunity cost, risk parity, and cross-market dynamics that no individual chart pattern can capture.
This portfolio reweighting activity, multiplied across hundreds of institutional participants, manifests in the aggregate positioning data published weekly by the CFTC. The Commitment of Traders report does not show individual trades or strategies. It shows the collective footprint of how actual commercial hedgers and large speculators have allocated their capital across different markets. When mining companies collectively increase forward gold sales to hedge thirty percent more production than last quarter, they are not reacting to a moving average crossover. They are making strategic allocation decisions based on production forecasts, cost structures, and price expectations derived from operational realities invisible to outside observers. This is portfolio management in action, revealed through positioning data rather than price charts.
If you want to understand how institutional capital actually flows, how sophisticated traders genuinely position themselves across market cycles, the COT report provides a rare window into that hidden world. But understand what you are getting into. This is not a tool for scalpers seeking confirmation of the next five-minute move. This is not an oscillator that flashes oversold at market bottoms with convenient precision. COT analysis operates on a timescale measured in weeks and months, revealing positioning shifts that precede major market turns but offer no precision timing. The data arrives three days stale, published only once per week, capturing strategic positioning rather than tactical entries.
If you need instant gratification, if you trade intraday moves, if you demand mechanical signals with ninety percent accuracy, close this document now. COT analysis rewards patience, position sizing discipline, and tolerance for being early. It punishes impatience, overleveraging, and the expectation that any single indicator can substitute for market understanding.
The premise is deceptively simple. Every Tuesday, large traders in futures markets must report their positions to the CFTC. By Friday afternoon, this data becomes public. Academic research spanning three decades has consistently shown that not all market participants are created equal. Some traders consistently profit while others consistently lose. Some anticipate major turning points while others chase trends into exhaustion. Bessembinder and Chan (1992) demonstrated in their seminal study that commercial hedgers, those with actual exposure to the underlying commodity or financial instrument, possess superior forecasting ability compared to speculators. Their research, published in the Journal of Finance, found statistically significant predictive power in commercial positioning, particularly at extreme levels. This finding challenged the efficient market hypothesis and opened the door to a new approach to market analysis based on positioning rather than price alone.
Think about what this means. Every week, the government publishes a report showing you exactly how the most informed market participants are positioned. Not their opinions. Not their predictions. Their actual money at risk. When agricultural producers collectively hold their largest short hedge in five years, they are not making idle speculation. They are locking in prices for crops they will harvest, informed by private knowledge of weather conditions, soil quality, inventory levels, and demand expectations invisible to outside observers. When energy companies aggressively hedge forward production at current prices, they reveal information about expected supply that no analyst report can capture. This is not technical analysis based on past prices. This is not fundamental analysis based on publicly available data. This is behavioral analysis based on how the smartest money is actually positioned, how institutions allocate capital across portfolios, and how those allocation decisions shift as market conditions evolve.
WHY SOME TRADERS KNOW MORE THAN OTHERS
Building on this foundation, Sanders, Boris and Manfredo (2004) conducted extensive research examining the behaviour patterns of different trader categories. Their work, which analyzed over a decade of COT data across multiple commodity markets, revealed a fascinating dynamic that challenges much of what retail traders are taught. Commercial hedgers consistently positioned themselves against market extremes, buying when speculators were most bearish and selling when speculators reached peak bullishness. The contrarian positioning of commercials was not random noise but rather reflected their superior information about supply and demand fundamentals. Meanwhile, large speculators, primarily hedge funds and commodity trading advisors, exhibited strong trend-following behaviour that often amplified market moves beyond fundamental values. Small traders, the retail participants, consistently entered positions late in trends, frequently near turning points, making them reliable contrary indicators.
Wang (2003) extended this research by demonstrating that the predictive power of commercial positioning varies significantly across different commodity sectors. His analysis of agricultural commodities showed particularly strong forecasting ability, with commercial net positions explaining up to fifteen percent of return variance in subsequent weeks. This finding suggests that the informational advantages of hedgers are most pronounced in markets where physical supply and demand fundamentals dominate, as opposed to purely financial markets where information asymmetries are smaller. When a corn farmer hedges six months of expected harvest, that decision incorporates private observations about rainfall patterns, crop health, pest pressure, and local storage capacity that no distant analyst can match. When an oil refinery hedges crude oil purchases and gasoline sales simultaneously, the spread relationships reveal expectations about refining margins that reflect operational realities invisible in public data.
The theoretical mechanism underlying these empirical patterns relates to information asymmetry and different participant motivations. Commercial hedgers engage in futures markets not for speculative profit but to manage business risks. An agricultural producer selling forward six months of expected harvest is not making a bet on price direction but rather locking in revenue to facilitate financial planning and ensure business viability. However, this hedging activity necessarily incorporates private information about expected supply, inventory levels, weather conditions, and demand trends that the hedger observes through their commercial operations (Irwin and Sanders, 2012). When aggregated across many participants, this private information manifests in collective positioning.
Consider a gold mining company deciding how much forward production to hedge. Management must estimate ore grades, recovery rates, production costs, equipment reliability, labor availability, and dozens of other operational variables that determine whether locking in prices at current levels makes business sense. If the industry collectively hedges more aggressively than usual, it suggests either exceptional production expectations or concern about sustaining current price levels or combination of both. Either way, this positioning reveals information unavailable to speculators analyzing price charts and economic data. The hedger sees the physical reality behind the financial abstraction.
Large speculators operate under entirely different incentives and constraints. Commodity Trading Advisors managing billions in assets typically employ systematic, trend-following strategies that respond to price momentum rather than fundamental supply and demand. When crude oil rallies from sixty dollars to seventy dollars per barrel, these systems generate buy signals. As the rally continues to eighty dollars, position sizes increase. The strategy works brilliantly during sustained trends but becomes a liability at reversals. By the time oil reaches ninety dollars, trend-following funds are maximally long, having accumulated positions progressively throughout the rally. At this point, they represent not smart money anticipating further gains but rather crowded money vulnerable to reversal. Sanders, Boris and Manfredo (2004) documented this pattern across multiple energy markets, showing that extreme speculator positioning typically marked late-stage trend exhaustion rather than early-stage trend development.
Small traders, the retail participants who fall below reporting thresholds, display the weakest forecasting ability. Wang (2003) found that small trader positioning exhibited negative correlation with subsequent returns, meaning their aggregate positioning served as a reliable contrary indicator. The explanation combines several factors. Retail traders often lack the capital reserves to weather normal market volatility, leading to premature exits from positions that would eventually prove profitable. They tend to receive information through slower channels, entering trends after mainstream media coverage when institutional participants are preparing to exit. Perhaps most importantly, they trade with emotion, buying into euphoria and selling into panic at precisely the wrong times.
At major turning points, the three groups often position opposite each other with commercials extremely bearish, large speculators extremely bullish, and small traders piling into longs at the last moment. These high-divergence environments frequently precede increased volatility and trend reversals. The insiders with business exposure quietly exit as the momentum traders hit maximum capacity and retail enthusiasm peaks. Within weeks, the reversal begins, and positions unwind in the opposite sequence.
FROM RAW DATA TO ACTIONABLE SIGNALS
The COT Index indicator operationalizes these academic findings into a practical trading tool accessible through TradingView. At its core, the indicator normalizes net positioning data onto a zero to one hundred scale, creating what we call the COT Index. This normalization is critical because absolute position sizes vary dramatically across different futures contracts and over time. A commercial trader holding fifty thousand contracts net long in crude oil might be extremely bullish by historical standards, or it might be quite neutral depending on the context of total market size and historical ranges. Raw position numbers mean nothing without context. The COT Index solves this problem by calculating where current positioning stands relative to its range over a specified lookback period, typically two hundred fifty-two weeks or approximately five years of weekly data.
The mathematical transformation follows the methodology originally popularized by legendary trader Larry Williams, though the underlying concept appears in statistical normalization techniques across many fields. For any given trader category, we calculate the highest and lowest net position values over the lookback period, establishing the historical range for that specific market and trader group. Current positioning is then expressed as a percentage of this range, where zero represents the most bearish positioning ever seen in the lookback window and one hundred represents the most bullish extreme. A reading of fifty indicates positioning exactly in the middle of the historical range, suggesting neither extreme optimism nor pessimism relative to recent history (Williams and Noseworthy, 2009).
This index-based approach allows for meaningful comparison across different markets and time periods, overcoming the scaling problems inherent in analyzing raw position data. A commercial index reading of eighty-five in gold carries the same interpretive meaning as an eighty-five reading in wheat or crude oil, even though the absolute position sizes differ by orders of magnitude. This standardization enables systematic analysis across entire futures portfolios rather than requiring market-specific expertise for each contract.
The lookback period selection involves a fundamental tradeoff between responsiveness and stability. Shorter lookback periods, perhaps one hundred twenty-six weeks or approximately two and a half years, make the index more sensitive to recent positioning changes. However, it also increases noise and produces more false signals. Longer lookback periods, perhaps five hundred weeks or approximately ten years, create smoother readings that filter short-term noise but become slower to recognize regime changes. The indicator settings allow users to adjust this parameter based on their trading timeframe, risk tolerance, and market characteristics.
UNDERSTANDING CFTC DATA STRUCTURES
The indicator supports both Legacy and Disaggregated COT report formats, reflecting the evolution of CFTC reporting standards over decades of market development. Legacy reports categorize market participants into three broad groups: commercial traders (hedgers with underlying business exposure), non-commercial traders (large speculators seeking profit without commercial interest), and non-reportable traders (small speculators below reporting thresholds). Each category brings distinct motivations and information advantages to the market (CFTC, 2020).
The Disaggregated reports, introduced in September 2009 for physical commodity markets, provide finer granularity by splitting participants into five categories (CFTC, 2009). Producer and merchant positions capture those actually producing, processing, or merchandising the physical commodity. Swap dealers represent financial intermediaries facilitating derivative transactions for clients. Managed money includes commodity trading advisors and hedge funds executing systematic or discretionary strategies. Other reportables encompasses diverse participants not fitting the main categories. Small traders remain as the fifth group, representing retail participation.
This enhanced categorization reveals nuances invisible in Legacy reports, particularly distinguishing between different types of institutional capital and their distinct behavioural patterns. The indicator automatically detects which report type is appropriate for each futures contract and adjusts the display accordingly.
Importantly, Disaggregated reports exist only for physical commodity futures. Agricultural commodities like corn, wheat, and soybeans have Disaggregated reports because clear producer, merchant, and swap dealer categories exist. Energy commodities like crude oil and natural gas similarly have well-defined commercial hedger categories. Metals including gold, silver, and copper also receive Disaggregated treatment (CFTC, 2009). However, financial futures such as equity index futures, Treasury bond futures, and currency futures remain available only in Legacy format. The CFTC has indicated no plans to extend Disaggregated reporting to financial futures due to different market structures and participant categories in these instruments (CFTC, 2020).
THE BEHAVIORAL FOUNDATION
Understanding which trader perspective to follow requires appreciation of their distinct trading styles, success rates, and psychological profiles. Commercial hedgers exhibit anticyclical behaviour rooted in their fundamental knowledge and business imperatives. When agricultural producers hedge forward sales during harvest season, they are not speculating on price direction but rather locking in revenue for crops they will harvest. Their business requires converting volatile commodity exposure into predictable cash flows to facilitate planning and ensure survival through difficult periods. Yet their aggregate positioning reveals valuable information because these hedging decisions incorporate private information about supply conditions, inventory levels, weather observations, and demand expectations that hedgers observe through their commercial operations (Bessembinder and Chan, 1992).
Consider a practical example from energy markets. Major oil companies continuously hedge portions of forward production based on price levels, operational costs, and financial planning needs. When crude oil trades at ninety dollars per barrel, they might aggressively hedge the next twelve months of production, locking in prices that provide comfortable profit margins above their extraction costs. This hedging appears as short positioning in COT reports. If oil rallies further to one hundred dollars, they hedge even more aggressively, viewing these prices as exceptional opportunities to secure revenue. Their short positioning grows increasingly extreme. To an outside observer watching only price charts, the rally suggests bullishness. But the commercial positioning reveals that the actual producers of oil find these prices attractive enough to lock in years of sales, suggesting skepticism about sustaining even higher levels. When the eventual reversal occurs and oil declines back to eighty dollars, the commercials who hedged at ninety and one hundred dollars profit while speculators who chased the rally suffer losses.
Large speculators or managed money traders operate under entirely different incentives and constraints. Their systematic, momentum-driven strategies mean they amplify existing trends rather than anticipate reversals. Trend-following systems, the most common approach among large speculators, by definition require confirmation of trend through price momentum before entering positions (Sanders, Boris and Manfredo, 2004). When crude oil rallies from sixty dollars to eighty dollars per barrel over several months, trend-following algorithms generate buy signals based on moving average crossovers, breakouts, and other momentum indicators. As the rally continues, position sizes increase according to the systematic rules.
However, this approach becomes a liability at turning points. By the time oil reaches ninety dollars after a sustained rally, trend-following funds are maximally long, having accumulated positions progressively throughout the move. At this point, their positioning does not predict continued strength. Rather, it often marks late-stage trend exhaustion. The psychological and mechanical explanation is straightforward. Trend followers by definition chase price momentum, entering positions after trends establish rather than anticipating them. Eventually, they become fully invested just as the trend nears completion, leaving no incremental buying power to sustain the rally. When the first signs of reversal appear, systematic stops trigger, creating a cascade of selling that accelerates the downturn.
Small traders consistently display the weakest track record across academic studies. Wang (2003) found that small trader positioning exhibited negative correlation with subsequent returns in his analysis across multiple commodity markets. This result means that whatever small traders collectively do, the opposite typically proves profitable. The explanation for small trader underperformance combines several factors documented in behavioral finance literature. Retail traders often lack the capital reserves to weather normal market volatility, leading to premature exits from positions that would eventually prove profitable. They tend to receive information through slower channels, learning about commodity trends through mainstream media coverage that arrives after institutional participants have already positioned. Perhaps most importantly, retail traders are more susceptible to emotional decision-making, buying into euphoria and selling into panic at precisely the wrong times (Tharp, 2008).
SETTINGS, THRESHOLDS, AND SIGNAL GENERATION
The practical implementation of the COT Index requires understanding several key features and settings that users can adjust to match their trading style, timeframe, and risk tolerance. The lookback period determines the time window for calculating historical ranges. The default setting of two hundred fifty-two bars represents approximately one year on daily charts or five years on weekly charts, balancing responsiveness with stability. Conservative traders seeking only the most extreme, highest-probability signals might extend the lookback to five hundred bars or more. Aggressive traders seeking earlier entry and willing to accept more false positives might reduce it to one hundred twenty-six bars or even less for shorter-term applications.
The bullish and bearish thresholds define signal generation levels. Default settings of eighty and twenty respectively reflect academic research suggesting meaningful information content at these extremes. Readings above eighty indicate positioning in the top quintile of the historical range, representing genuine extremes rather than temporary fluctuations. Conversely, readings below twenty occupy the bottom quintile, indicating unusually bearish positioning (Briese, 2008).
However, traders must recognize that appropriate thresholds vary by market, trader category, and personal risk tolerance. Some futures markets exhibit wider positioning swings than others due to seasonal patterns, volatility characteristics, or participant behavior. Conservative traders seeking high-probability setups with fewer signals might raise thresholds to eighty-five and fifteen. Aggressive traders willing to accept more false positives for earlier entry could lower them to seventy-five and twenty-five.
The key is maintaining meaningful differentiation between bullish, neutral, and bearish zones. The default settings of eighty and twenty create a clear three-zone structure. Readings from zero to twenty represent bearish territory where the selected trader group holds unusually bearish positions. Readings from twenty to eighty represent neutral territory where positioning falls within normal historical ranges. Readings from eighty to one hundred represent bullish territory where the selected trader group holds unusually bullish positions.
The trading perspective selection determines which participant group the indicator follows, fundamentally shaping interpretation and signal meaning. For counter-trend traders seeking reversal opportunities, monitoring commercial positioning makes intuitive sense based on the academic research discussed earlier. When commercials reach extreme bearish readings below twenty, indicating unprecedented short positioning relative to recent history, they are effectively betting against the crowd. Given their informational advantages demonstrated by Bessembinder and Chan (1992), this contrarian stance often precedes major bottoms.
Trend followers might instead monitor large speculator positioning, but with inverted logic compared to commercials. When managed money reaches extreme bullish readings above eighty, the trend may be exhausting rather than accelerating. This seeming paradox reflects their late-cycle participation documented by Sanders, Boris and Manfredo (2004). Sophisticated traders thus use speculator extremes as fade signals, entering positions opposite to speculator consensus.
Small trader monitoring serves primarily as a contrary indicator for all trading styles. Extreme small trader bullishness above seventy-five or eighty typically warns of retail FOMO at market tops. Extreme small trader bearishness below twenty or twenty-five often marks capitulation bottoms where the last weak hands have sold.
VISUALIZATION AND USER INTERFACE
The visual design incorporates multiple elements working together to facilitate decision-making and maintain situational awareness during active trading. The primary COT Index line plots in bold with adjustable line width, defaulting to two pixels for clear visibility against busy price charts. An optional glow effect, controlled by a simple toggle, adds additional visual prominence through multiple plot layers with progressively increasing transparency and width.
A twenty-one period exponential moving average overlays the index line, providing trend context for positioning changes. When the index crosses above its moving average, it signals accelerating bullish sentiment among the selected trader group regardless of whether absolute positioning is extreme. Conversely, when the index crosses below its moving average, it signals deteriorating sentiment and potentially the beginning of a reversal in positioning trends.
The EMA provides a dynamic reference line for assessing positioning momentum. When the index trades far above its EMA, positioning is not only extreme in absolute terms but also building with momentum. When the index trades far below its EMA, positioning is contracting or reversing, which may indicate weakening conviction even if absolute levels remain elevated.
The data table positioned at the top right of the chart displays eleven metrics for each trader category, transforming the indicator from a simple index calculation into an analytical dashboard providing multidimensional market intelligence. Beyond the COT Index itself, users can monitor positioning extremity, which measures how unusual current levels are compared to historical norms using statistical techniques. The extremity metric clarifies whether a reading represents the ninety-fifth or ninety-ninth percentile, with values above two standard deviations indicating genuinely exceptional positioning.
Market power quantifies each group's influence on total open interest. This metric expresses each trader category's net position as a percentage of total market open interest. A commercial entity holding forty percent of total open interest commands significantly more influence than one holding five percent, making their positioning signals more meaningful.
Momentum and rate of change metrics reveal whether positions are building or contracting, providing early warning of potential regime shifts. Position velocity measures the rate of change in positioning changes, effectively a second derivative providing even earlier insight into inflection points.
Sentiment divergence highlights disagreements between commercial and speculative positioning. This metric calculates the absolute difference between normalized commercial and large speculator index values. Wang (2003) found that these high-divergence environments frequently preceded increased volatility and reversals.
The table also displays concentration metrics when available, showing how positioning is distributed among the largest handful of traders in each category. High concentration indicates a few dominant players controlling most of the positioning, while low concentration suggests broad-based participation across many traders.
THE ALERT SYSTEM AND MONITORING
The alert system, comprising five distinct alert conditions, enables systematic monitoring of dozens of futures markets without constant screen watching. The bullish and bearish COT signal alerts trigger when the index crosses user-defined thresholds, indicating the selected trader group has reached extreme positioning worthy of attention. These alerts fire in real-time as new weekly COT data publishes, typically Friday afternoon following the Tuesday measurement date.
Extreme positioning alerts fire at ninety and ten index levels, representing the top and bottom ten percent of the historical range, warning of particularly stretched readings that historically precede reversals with high probability. When commercials reach a COT Index reading below ten, they are expressing their most bearish stance in the entire lookback period.
The data staleness alert notifies users when COT reports have not updated for more than ten days, preventing reliance on outdated information for trading decisions. Government shutdowns or federal holidays can interrupt the normal Friday publication schedule. Using stale signals while believing them current creates dangerous false confidence.
The indicator's watermark information display positioned in the bottom right corner provides essential context at a glance. This persistent display shows the symbol and timeframe, the COT report date timestamp, days since last update, and the current signal state. A trader analyzing a potential short entry in crude oil can glance at the watermark to instantly confirm positioning context without interrupting analysis flow.
LIMITATIONS AND REALISTIC EXPECTATIONS
Practical application requires understanding both the indicator's considerable strengths and inherent limitations. COT data inherently lags price action by three days, as Tuesday positions are not published until Friday afternoon. This delay means the indicator cannot catch rapid intraday reversals or respond to surprise news events. Traders using the COT Index for timing entries must accept this latency and focus on swing trading and position trading timeframes where three-day lags matter less than in day trading or scalping.
The weekly publication schedule similarly makes the indicator unsuitable for short-term trading strategies requiring immediate feedback. The COT Index works best for traders operating on weekly or longer timeframes, where positioning shifts measured in weeks and months align with trading horizon.
Extreme COT readings can persist far longer than typical technical indicators suggest, testing the patience and capital reserves of traders attempting to fade them. When crude oil enters a sustained bull market driven by genuine supply disruptions, commercial hedgers may maintain bearish positioning for many months as prices grind higher. A commercial COT Index reading of fifteen indicating extreme bearishness might persist for three months while prices continue rallying before finally reversing. Traders without sufficient capital and risk tolerance to weather such drawdowns will exit prematurely, precisely when the signal is about to work (Irwin and Sanders, 2012).
Position sizing discipline becomes paramount when implementing COT-based strategies. Rather than risking large percentages of capital on individual signals, successful COT traders typically allocate modest position sizes across multiple signals, allowing some to take time to mature while others work more quickly.
The indicator also cannot overcome fundamental regime changes that alter the structural drivers of markets. If gold enters a true secular bull market driven by monetary debasement, commercial hedgers may remain persistently bearish as mining companies sell forward years of production at what they perceive as favorable prices. Their positioning indicates valuation concerns from a production cost perspective, but cannot stop prices from rising if investment demand overwhelms physical supply-demand balance.
Similarly, structural changes in market participation can alter the meaning of positioning extremes. The growth of commodity index investing in the two thousands brought massive passive long-only capital into futures markets, fundamentally changing typical positioning ranges. Traders relying on COT signals without recognizing this regime change would have generated numerous false bearish signals during the commodity supercycle from 2003 to 2008.
The research foundation supporting COT analysis derives primarily from commodity markets where the commercial hedger information advantage is most pronounced. Studies specifically examining financial futures like equity indices and bonds show weaker but still present effects. Traders should calibrate expectations accordingly, recognizing that COT analysis likely works better for crude oil, natural gas, corn, and wheat than for the S&P 500, Treasury bonds, or currency futures.
Another important limitation involves the reporting threshold structure. Not all market participants appear in COT data, only those holding positions above specified minimums. In markets dominated by a few large players, concentration metrics become critical for proper interpretation. A single large trader accounting for thirty percent of commercial positioning might skew the entire category if their individual circumstances are idiosyncratic rather than representative.
GOLD FUTURES DURING A HYPOTHETICAL MARKET CYCLE
Consider a practical example using gold futures during a hypothetical but realistic market scenario that illustrates how the COT Index indicator guides trading decisions through a complete market cycle. Suppose gold has rallied from fifteen hundred to nineteen hundred dollars per ounce over six months, driven by inflation concerns following aggressive monetary expansion, geopolitical uncertainty, and sustained buying by Asian central banks for reserve diversification.
Large speculators, operating primarily trend-following strategies, have accumulated increasingly bullish positions throughout this rally. Their COT Index has climbed progressively from forty-five to eighty-five. The table display shows that large speculators now hold net long positions representing thirty-two percent of total open interest, their highest in four years. Momentum indicators show positive readings, indicating positions are still building though at a decelerating rate. Position velocity has turned negative, suggesting the pace of position building is slowing.
Meanwhile, commercial hedgers have responded to the rally by aggressively selling forward production and inventory. Their COT Index has moved inversely to price, declining from fifty-five to twenty. This bearish commercial positioning represents mining companies locking in forward sales at prices they view as attractive relative to production costs. The table shows commercials now hold net short positions representing twenty-nine percent of total open interest, their most bearish stance in five years. Concentration metrics indicate this positioning is broadly distributed across many commercial entities, suggesting the bearish stance reflects collective industry view rather than idiosyncratic positioning by a single firm.
Small traders, attracted by mainstream financial media coverage of gold's impressive rally, have recently piled into long positions. Their COT Index has jumped from forty-five to seventy-eight as retail investors chase the trend. Television financial networks feature frequent segments on gold with bullish guests. Internet forums and social media show surging retail interest. This retail enthusiasm historically marks late-stage trend development rather than early opportunity.
The COT Index indicator, configured to monitor commercial positioning from a contrarian perspective, displays a clear bearish signal given the extreme commercial short positioning. The table displays multiple confirming metrics: positioning extremity shows commercials at the ninety-sixth percentile of bearishness, market power indicates they control twenty-nine percent of open interest, and sentiment divergence registers sixty-five, indicating massive disagreement between commercial hedgers and large speculators. This divergence, the highest in three years, places the market in the historically high-risk category for reversals.
The interpretation requires nuance and consideration of context beyond just COT data. Commercials are not necessarily predicting an imminent crash. Rather, they are hedging business operations at what they collectively view as favorable price levels. However, the data reveals they have sold unusually large quantities of forward production, suggesting either exceptional production expectations for the year ahead or concern about sustaining current price levels or combination of both. Combined with extreme speculator positioning indicating a crowded long trade, and small trader enthusiasm confirming retail FOMO, the confluence suggests elevated reversal risk even if the precise timing remains uncertain.
A prudent trader analyzing this situation might take several actions based on COT Index signals. Existing long positions could be tightened with closer stop losses. Profit-taking on a portion of long exposure could lock in gains while maintaining some participation. Some traders might initiate modest short positions as portfolio hedges, sizing them appropriately for the inherent uncertainty in timing reversals. Others might simply move to the sidelines, avoiding new long entries until positioning normalizes.
The key lesson from case study analysis is that COT signals provide probabilistic edges rather than deterministic predictions. They work over many observations by identifying higher-probability configurations, not by generating perfect calls on individual trades. A fifty-five percent win rate with proper risk management produces substantial profits over time, yet still means forty-five percent of signals will be premature or wrong. Traders must embrace this probabilistic reality rather than seeking the impossible goal of perfect accuracy.
INTEGRATION WITH TRADING SYSTEMS
Integration with existing trading systems represents a natural and powerful use case for COT analysis, adding a positioning dimension to price-based technical approaches or fundamental analytical frameworks. Few traders rely exclusively on a single indicator or methodology. Rather, they build systems that synthesize multiple information sources, with each component addressing different aspects of market behavior.
Trend followers might use COT extremes as regime filters, modifying position sizing or avoiding new trend entries when positioning reaches levels historically associated with reversals. Consider a classic trend-following system based on moving average crossovers and momentum breakouts. Integration of COT analysis adds nuance. When large speculator positioning exceeds ninety or commercial positioning falls below ten, the regime filter recognizes elevated reversal risk. The system might reduce position sizing by fifty percent for new signals during these high-risk periods (Kaufman, 2013).
Mean reversion traders might require COT signal confluence before fading extended moves. When crude oil becomes technically overbought and large speculators show extreme long positioning above eighty-five, both signals confirm. If only technical indicators show extremes while positioning remains neutral, the potential short signal is rejected, avoiding fades of trends with underlying institutional support (Kaufman, 2013).
Discretionary traders can monitor the indicator as a continuous awareness tool, informing bias and position sizing without dictating mechanical entries and exits. A discretionary trader might notice commercial positioning shifting from neutral to progressively more bullish over several months. This trend informs growing positive bias even without triggering mechanical signals.
Multi-timeframe analysis represents another powerful integration approach. A trader might use daily charts for trade execution and timing while monitoring weekly COT positioning for strategic context. When both timeframes align, highest-probability opportunities emerge.
Portfolio construction for futures traders can incorporate COT signals as an additional selection criterion. Markets showing strong technical setups AND favorable COT positioning receive highest allocations. Markets with strong technicals but neutral or unfavorable positioning receive reduced allocations.
ADVANCED METRICS AND INTERPRETATION
The metrics table transforms simple positioning data into multidimensional market intelligence. Position extremity, calculated as the absolute deviation from the historical mean normalized by standard deviation, helps identify truly unusual readings versus routine fluctuations. A reading above two standard deviations indicates ninety-fifth percentile or higher extremity. Above three standard deviations indicates ninety-ninth percentile or higher, genuinely rare positioning that historically precedes major events with high probability.
Market power, expressed as a percentage of total open interest, reveals whose positioning matters most from a mechanical market impact perspective. Consider two scenarios in gold futures. In scenario one, commercials show a COT Index reading of fifteen while their market power metric shows they hold net shorts representing thirty-five percent of open interest. This is a high-confidence bearish signal. In scenario two, commercials also show a reading of fifteen, but market power shows only eight percent. While positioning is extreme relative to this category's normal range, their limited market share means less mechanical influence on price.
The rate of change and momentum metrics highlight whether positions are accelerating or decelerating, often providing earlier warnings than absolute levels alone. A COT Index reading of seventy-five with rapidly building momentum suggests continued movement toward extremes. Conversely, a reading of eighty-five with decelerating or negative momentum indicates the positioning trend is exhausting.
Position velocity measures the rate of change in positioning changes, effectively a second derivative. When velocity shifts from positive to negative, it indicates that while positioning may still be growing, the pace of growth is slowing. This deceleration often precedes actual reversal in positioning direction by several weeks.
Sentiment divergence calculates the absolute difference between normalized commercial and large speculator index values. When commercials show extreme bearish positioning at twenty while large speculators show extreme bullish positioning at eighty, the divergence reaches sixty, representing near-maximum disagreement. Wang (2003) found that these high-divergence environments frequently preceded increased volatility and reversals. The mechanism is intuitive. Extreme divergence indicates the informed hedgers and momentum-following speculators have positioned opposite each other with conviction. One group will prove correct and profit while the other proves incorrect and suffers losses. The resolution of this disagreement through price movement often involves volatility.
The table also displays concentration metrics when available. High concentration indicates a few dominant players controlling most of the positioning within a category, while low concentration suggests broad-based participation. Broad-based positioning more reliably reflects collective market intelligence and industry consensus. If mining companies globally all independently decide to hedge aggressively at similar price levels, it suggests genuine industry-wide view about price valuations rather than circumstances specific to one firm.
DATA QUALITY AND RELIABILITY
The CFTC has maintained COT reporting in various forms since the nineteen twenties, providing nearly a century of positioning data across multiple market cycles. However, data quality and reporting standards have evolved substantially over this long period. Modern electronic reporting implemented in the late nineteen nineties and early two thousands significantly improved accuracy and timeliness compared to earlier paper-based systems.
Traders should understand that COT reports capture positions as of Tuesday's close each week. Markets remain open three additional days before publication on Friday afternoon, meaning the reported data is three days stale when received. During periods of rapid market movement or major news events, this lag can be significant. The indicator addresses this limitation by including timestamp information and staleness warnings.
The three-day lag creates particular challenges during extreme volatility episodes. Flash crashes, surprise central bank interventions, geopolitical shocks, and other high-impact events can completely transform market positioning within hours. Traders must exercise judgment about whether reported positioning remains relevant given intervening events.
Reporting thresholds also mean that not all market participants appear in disaggregated COT data. Traders holding positions below specified minimums aggregate into the non-reportable or small trader category. This aggregation affects different markets differently. In highly liquid contracts like crude oil with thousands of participants, reportable traders might represent seventy to eighty percent of open interest. In thinly traded contracts with only dozens of active participants, a few large reportable positions might represent ninety-five percent of open interest.
Another data quality consideration involves trader classification into categories. The CFTC assigns traders to commercial or non-commercial categories based on reported business purpose and activities. However, this process is not perfect. Some entities engage in both commercial and speculative activities, creating ambiguity about proper classification. The transition to Disaggregated reports attempted to address some of these ambiguities by creating more granular categories.
COMPARISON WITH ALTERNATIVE APPROACHES
Several alternative approaches to COT analysis exist in the trading community beyond the normalization methodology employed by this indicator. Some analysts focus on absolute position changes week-over-week rather than index-based normalization. This approach calculates the change in net positioning from one week to the next. The emphasis falls on momentum in positioning changes rather than absolute levels relative to history. This method potentially identifies regime shifts earlier but sacrifices cross-market comparability (Briese, 2008).
Other practitioners employ more complex statistical transformations including percentile rankings, z-score standardization, and machine learning classification algorithms. Ruan and Zhang (2018) demonstrated that machine learning models applied to COT data could achieve modest improvements in forecasting accuracy compared to simple threshold-based approaches. However, these gains came at the cost of interpretability and implementation complexity.
The COT Index indicator intentionally employs a relatively straightforward normalization methodology for several important reasons. First, transparency enhances user understanding and trust. Traders can verify calculations manually and develop intuitive feel for what different readings mean. Second, academic research suggests that most of the predictive power in COT data comes from extreme positioning levels rather than subtle patterns requiring complex statistical methods to detect. Third, robust methods that work consistently across many markets and time periods tend to be simpler rather than more complex, reducing the risk of overfitting to historical data. Fourth, the complexity costs of implementation matter for retail traders without programming teams or computational infrastructure.
PSYCHOLOGICAL ASPECTS OF COT TRADING
Trading based on COT data requires psychological fortitude that differs from momentum-based approaches. Contrarian positioning signals inherently mean betting against prevailing market sentiment and recent price action. When commercials reach extreme bearish positioning, prices have typically been rising, sometimes for extended periods. The price chart looks bullish, momentum indicators confirm strength, moving averages align positively. The COT signal says bet against all of this. This psychological difficulty explains why COT analysis remains underutilized relative to trend-following methods.
Human psychology strongly predisposes us toward extrapolation and recency bias. When prices rally for months, our pattern-matching brains naturally expect continued rally. The recent price action dominates our perception, overwhelming rational analysis about positioning extremes and historical probabilities. The COT signal asking us to sell requires overriding these powerful psychological impulses.
The indicator design attempts to support the required psychological discipline through several features. Clear threshold markers and signal states reduce ambiguity about when signals trigger. When the commercial index crosses below twenty, the signal is explicit and unambiguous. The background shifts to red, the signal label displays bearish, and alerts fire. This explicitness helps traders act on signals rather than waiting for additional confirmation that may never arrive.
The metrics table provides analytical justification for contrarian positions, helping traders maintain conviction during inevitable periods of adverse price movement. When a trader enters short positions based on extreme commercial bearish positioning but prices continue rallying for several weeks, doubt naturally emerges. The table display provides reassurance. Commercial positioning remains extremely bearish. Divergence remains high. The positioning thesis remains intact even though price action has not yet confirmed.
Alert functionality ensures traders do not miss signals due to inattention while also not requiring constant monitoring that can lead to emotional decision-making. Setting alerts for COT extremes enables a healthier relationship with markets. When meaningful signals occur, alerts notify them. They can then calmly assess the situation and execute planned responses.
However, no indicator design can completely overcome the psychological difficulty of contrarian trading. Some traders simply cannot maintain short positions while prices rally. For these traders, COT analysis might be better employed as an exit signal for long positions rather than an entry signal for shorts.
Ultimately, successful COT trading requires developing comfort with probabilistic thinking rather than certainty-seeking. The signals work over many observations by identifying higher-probability configurations, not by generating perfect calls on individual trades. A fifty-five or sixty percent win rate with proper risk management produces substantial profits over years, yet still means forty to forty-five percent of signals will be premature or wrong. COT analysis provides genuine edge, but edge means probability advantage, not elimination of losing trades.
EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES AND CONTINUOUS LEARNING
The indicator provides extensive built-in educational resources through its documentation, detailed tooltips, and transparent calculations. However, mastering COT analysis requires study beyond any single tool or resource. Several excellent resources provide valuable extensions of the concepts covered in this guide.
Books and practitioner-focused monographs offer accessible entry points. Stephen Briese published The Commitments of Traders Bible in two thousand eight, offering detailed breakdowns of how different markets and trader categories behave (Briese, 2008). Briese's work stands out for its empirical focus and market-specific insights. Jack Schwager includes discussion of COT analysis within the broader context of market behavior in his book Market Sense and Nonsense (Schwager, 2012). Perry Kaufman's Trading Systems and Methods represents perhaps the most rigorous practitioner-focused text on systematic trading approaches including COT analysis (Kaufman, 2013).
Academic journal articles provide the rigorous statistical foundation underlying COT analysis. The Journal of Futures Markets regularly publishes research on positioning data and its predictive properties. Bessembinder and Chan's earlier work on systematic risk, hedging pressure, and risk premiums in futures markets provides theoretical foundation (Bessembinder, 1992). Chang's examination of speculator returns provides historical context (Chang, 1985). Irwin and Sanders provide essential skeptical perspective in their two thousand twelve article (Irwin and Sanders, 2012). Wang's two thousand three article provides one of the most empirical analyses of COT data across multiple commodity markets (Wang, 2003).
Online resources extend beyond academic and book-length treatments. The CFTC website provides free access to current and historical COT reports in multiple formats. The explanatory materials section offers detailed documentation of report construction, category definitions, and historical methodology changes. Traders serious about COT analysis should read these official CFTC documents to understand exactly what they are analyzing.
Commercial COT data services such as Barchart provide enhanced visualization and analysis tools beyond raw CFTC data. TradingView's educational materials, published scripts library, and user community provide additional resources for exploring different approaches to COT analysis.
The key to mastering COT analysis lies not in finding a single definitive source but rather in building understanding through multiple perspectives and information sources. Academic research provides rigorous empirical foundation. Practitioner-focused books offer practical implementation insights. Direct engagement with data through systematic backtesting develops intuition about how positioning dynamics manifest across different market conditions.
SYNTHESIZING KNOWLEDGE INTO PRACTICE
The COT Index indicator represents the synthesis of academic research, trading experience, and software engineering into a practical tool accessible to retail traders equipped with nothing more than a TradingView account and willingness to learn. What once required expensive data subscriptions, custom programming capabilities, statistical software, and institutional resources now appears as a straightforward indicator requiring only basic parameter selection and modest study to understand. This democratization of institutional-grade analysis tools represents a broader trend in financial markets over recent decades.
Yet technology and data access alone provide no edge without understanding and discipline. Markets remain relentlessly efficient at eliminating edges that become too widely known and mechanically exploited. The COT Index indicator succeeds only when users invest time learning the underlying concepts, understand the limitations and probability distributions involved, and integrate signals thoughtfully into trading plans rather than applying them mechanically.
The academic research demonstrates conclusively that institutional positioning contains genuine information about future price movements, particularly at extremes where commercial hedgers are maximally bearish or bullish relative to historical norms. This informational content is neither perfect nor deterministic but rather probabilistic, providing edge over many observations through identification of higher-probability configurations. Bessembinder and Chan's finding that commercial positioning explained modest but significant variance in future returns illustrates this probabilistic nature perfectly (Bessembinder and Chan, 1992). The effect is real and statistically significant, yet it explains perhaps ten to fifteen percent of return variance rather than most variance. Much of price movement remains unpredictable even with positioning intelligence.
The practical implication is that COT analysis works best as one component of a trading system rather than a standalone oracle. It provides the positioning dimension, revealing where the smart money has positioned and where the crowd has followed, but price action analysis provides the timing dimension. Fundamental analysis provides the catalyst dimension. Risk management provides the survival dimension. These components work together synergistically.
The indicator's design philosophy prioritizes transparency and education over black-box complexity, empowering traders to understand exactly what they are analyzing and why. Every calculation is documented and user-adjustable. The threshold markers, background coloring, tables, and clear signal states provide multiple reinforcing channels for conveying the same information.
This educational approach reflects a conviction that sustainable trading success comes from genuine understanding rather than mechanical system-following. Traders who understand why commercial positioning matters, how different trader categories behave, what positioning extremes signify, and where signals fit within probability distributions can adapt when market conditions change. Traders mechanically following black-box signals without comprehension abandon systems after normal losing streaks.
The research foundation supporting COT analysis comes primarily from commodity markets where commercial hedger informational advantages are most pronounced. Agricultural producers hedging crops know more about supply conditions than distant speculators. Energy companies hedging production know more about operating costs than financial traders. Metals miners hedging output know more about ore grades than index funds. Financial futures markets show weaker but still present effects.
The journey from reading this documentation to profitable trading based on COT analysis involves several stages that cannot be rushed. Initial reading and basic understanding represents the first stage. Historical study represents the second stage, reviewing past market cycles to observe how positioning extremes preceded major turning points. Paper trading or small-size real trading represents the third stage to experience the psychological challenges. Refinement based on results and personal psychology represents the fourth stage.
Markets will continue evolving. New participant categories will emerge. Regulatory structures will change. Technology will advance. Yet the fundamental dynamics driving COT analysis, that different market participants have different information, different motivations, and different forecasting abilities that manifest in their positioning, will persist as long as futures markets exist. While specific thresholds or optimal parameters may shift over time, the core logic remains sound and adaptable.
The trader equipped with this indicator, understanding of the theory and evidence behind COT analysis, realistic expectations about probability rather than certainty, discipline to maintain positions through adverse volatility, and patience to allow signals time to develop possesses genuine edge in markets. The edge is not enormous, markets cannot allow large persistent inefficiencies without arbitraging them away, but it is real, measurable, and exploitable by those willing to invest in learning and disciplined application.
REFERENCES
Bessembinder, H. (1992) Systematic risk, hedging pressure, and risk premiums in futures markets, Review of Financial Studies, 5(4), pp. 637-667.
Bessembinder, H. and Chan, K. (1992) The profitability of technical trading rules in the Asian stock markets, Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 3(2-3), pp. 257-284.
Briese, S. (2008) The Commitments of Traders Bible: How to Profit from Insider Market Intelligence. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
Chang, E.C. (1985) Returns to speculators and the theory of normal backwardation, Journal of Finance, 40(1), pp. 193-208.
Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) (2009) Explanatory Notes: Disaggregated Commitments of Traders Report. Available at: www.cftc.gov (Accessed: 15 January 2025).
Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) (2020) Commitments of Traders: About the Report. Available at: www.cftc.gov (Accessed: 15 January 2025).
Irwin, S.H. and Sanders, D.R. (2012) Testing the Masters Hypothesis in commodity futures markets, Energy Economics, 34(1), pp. 256-269.
Kaufman, P.J. (2013) Trading Systems and Methods. 5th edn. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
Ruan, Y. and Zhang, Y. (2018) Forecasting commodity futures prices using machine learning: Evidence from the Chinese commodity futures market, Applied Economics Letters, 25(12), pp. 845-849.
Sanders, D.R., Boris, K. and Manfredo, M. (2004) Hedgers, funds, and small speculators in the energy futures markets: an analysis of the CFTC's Commitments of Traders reports, Energy Economics, 26(3), pp. 425-445.
Schwager, J.D. (2012) Market Sense and Nonsense: How the Markets Really Work and How They Don't. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
Tharp, V.K. (2008) Super Trader: Make Consistent Profits in Good and Bad Markets. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Wang, C. (2003) The behavior and performance of major types of futures traders, Journal of Futures Markets, 23(1), pp. 1-31.
Williams, L.R. and Noseworthy, M. (2009) The Right Stock at the Right Time: Prospering in the Coming Good Years. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
FURTHER READING
For traders seeking to deepen their understanding of COT analysis and futures market positioning beyond this documentation, the following resources provide valuable extensions:
Academic Journal Articles:
Fishe, R.P.H. and Smith, A. (2012) Do speculators drive commodity prices away from supply and demand fundamentals?, Journal of Commodity Markets, 1(1), pp. 1-16.
Haigh, M.S., Hranaiova, J. and Overdahl, J.A. (2007) Hedge funds, volatility, and liquidity provision in energy futures markets, Journal of Alternative Investments, 9(4), pp. 10-38.
Kocagil, A.E. (1997) Does futures speculation stabilize spot prices? Evidence from metals markets, Applied Financial Economics, 7(1), pp. 115-125.
Sanders, D.R. and Irwin, S.H. (2011) The impact of index funds in commodity futures markets: A systems approach, Journal of Alternative Investments, 14(1), pp. 40-49.
Books and Practitioner Resources:
Murphy, J.J. (1999) Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets: A Guide to Trading Methods and Applications. New York: New York Institute of Finance.
Pring, M.J. (2002) Technical Analysis Explained: The Investor's Guide to Spotting Investment Trends and Turning Points. 4th edn. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Federal Reserve and Research Institution Publications:
Federal Reserve Banks regularly publish working papers examining commodity markets, futures positioning, and price discovery mechanisms. The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City maintain active research programs in this area.
Online Resources:
The CFTC website provides free access to current and historical COT reports, explanatory materials, and regulatory documentation.
Barchart offers enhanced COT data visualization and screening tools.
TradingView's community library contains numerous published scripts and educational materials exploring different approaches to positioning analysis.
Trend Candles Full ColorThe coloring over the candle sticks isn't showing up on the picture for some reason but when you click on the indicator the color coding will appear on the chart.
Trend Candles Full Color Indicator Explanation The "Trend Candles Full Color" indicator, designed for TradingView, visually enhances candlestick charts by coloring candles based on their position relative to a simple moving average (SMA). Here's how it works and how it can benefit traders: How It Works Input : Adjust the SMA period (default is 20) to define the trend length.
Logic : The indicator compares the closing price of each candle to the SMA: Green Candle : Close is above the SMA (indicating an uptrend).
Red Candle : Close is below the SMA (indicating a downtrend).
Gray Candle : Close equals the SMA (neutral/no clear trend).
Output : Candles (body, wick, and border) are colored green, red, or gray based on the trend, overlaid directly on your price chart.
Benefits and Use Cases Trend-Following Strategies Benefit: Clearly identifies bullish (green) or bearish (red) trends, helping traders ride momentum.
Example: A swing trader using a 20-period SMA can enter long positions when candles turn green (price above SMA) and exit or short when candles turn red, confirming trend reversals.
Reversal Trading Benefit: Gray candles signal indecision near the SMA, often a precursor to reversals.
Example: A day trader might watch for gray candles after a prolonged uptrend (green candles) to anticipate a potential bearish reversal, combining with other indicators like RSI for confirmation.
Scalping Benefit: Quick visual cues for short-term trend changes on lower timeframes.
Example: A scalper on a 5-minute chart can use green candles to confirm quick bullish moves and red candles to avoid counter-trend trades, enhancing decision speed.
Position Sizing or Risk Management Benefit: Color changes highlight trend strength, aiding in adjusting trade size or stops.
Example: A trader might increase position size during strong green candle sequences (sustained uptrend) and tighten stops when gray candles appear, signaling potential trend weakness.
Tips for Use Adjust the MA Length to suit your trading style (e.g., shorter for scalping, longer for swing trading).
Combine with other indicators (e.g., support/resistance, MACD) for better accuracy.
Test on different timeframes to match your strategy.
Recommended MA Length for 1-Minute Charts Short-Term/Scalping (1-5 minute trades):10-period SMA : Very sensitive, ideal for capturing quick price movements in fast markets. May produce more noise (false signals).
20-period SMA : A balanced choice for 1-minute charts, smoothing minor fluctuations while reacting to short-term trends. A great starting point for scalpers.
Intraday Trend Trading (10-30 minute holds):50-period SMA : Captures broader intraday trends, reducing noise but lagging slightly. Suitable for larger moves within a session.
This indicator simplifies trend identification, making it a versatile tool for traders of all styles, from beginners to advanced users!
Recommended MA Length for Swing Trading / Higher Timeframes Swing Trading (holding trades for days to weeks):50-period SMA : A popular choice for swing traders on higher timeframes (e.g., 1-hour or 4-hour charts). It smooths out short-term fluctuations while identifying medium-term trends. Ideal for capturing multi-day swings.
100-period SMA : Slightly longer, this MA is great for confirming stronger, more sustained trends. It’s useful on 4-hour or daily charts for swing traders aiming to ride larger price moves.
Longer-Term Trend Trading (holding for weeks to months):200-period SMA : A classic choice for higher timeframes like daily or weekly charts. It highlights major market trends and is widely used by swing and position traders to filter out noise and focus on long-term direction.
150-period SMA : A middle ground between the 100 and 200 SMA, suitable for daily charts when you want a balance between responsiveness and trend reliability.
Hidden Impulse═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
HIDDEN IMPULSE - Multi-Timeframe Momentum Detection System
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
OVERVIEW
Hidden Impulse is an advanced momentum oscillator that combines the Schaff Trend Cycle (STC) and Force Index into a comprehensive multi-timeframe trading system. Unlike standard implementations of these indicators, this script introduces three distinct trading setups with specific entry conditions, multi-timeframe confirmation, and trend filtering.
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
ORIGINALITY & KEY FEATURES
This indicator is original in the following ways:
1. DUAL-TIMEFRAME STC ANALYSIS
Standard STC implementations work on a single timeframe. This script
simultaneously analyzes STC on both your trading timeframe and a higher
timeframe, providing trend context and filtering out low-probability signals.
2. FORCE INDEX INTEGRATION
The script combines STC with Force Index (volume-weighted price momentum)
to confirm the strength behind price moves. This combination helps identify
when momentum shifts are backed by genuine buying/selling pressure.
3. THREE DISTINCT TRADING SETUPS
Rather than generic overbought/oversold signals, the indicator provides
three specific, rule-based setups:
- Setup A: Classic trend-following entries with multi-timeframe confirmation
- Setup B: Divergence-based reversal entries (highest probability)
- Setup C: Mean-reversion bounce trades at extreme levels
4. INTELLIGENT FILTERING
All signals are filtered through:
- 50 EMA trend direction (prevents counter-trend trades)
- Higher timeframe STC alignment (ensures macro trend agreement)
- Force Index confirmation (validates volume support)
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
HOW IT WORKS - TECHNICAL EXPLANATION
SCHAFF TREND CYCLE (STC) CALCULATION:
The STC is a cyclical oscillator that combines MACD concepts with stochastic
smoothing to create earlier and smoother trend signals.
Step 1: Calculate MACD
- Fast MA = EMA(close, Length1) — default 23
- Slow MA = EMA(close, Length2) — default 50
- MACD Line = Fast MA - Slow MA
Step 2: First Stochastic Smoothing
- Apply stochastic calculation to MACD
- Stoch1 = 100 × (MACD - Lowest(MACD, Smoothing)) / (Highest(MACD, Smoothing) - Lowest(MACD, Smoothing))
- Smooth result with EMA(Stoch1, Smoothing) — default 10
Step 3: Second Stochastic Smoothing
- Apply stochastic calculation again to the smoothed stochastic
- This creates the final STC value between 0-100
The dual stochastic smoothing makes STC more responsive than MACD while
being smoother than traditional stochastics.
FORCE INDEX CALCULATION:
Force Index measures the power behind price movements by incorporating volume:
Force Raw = (Close - Close ) × Volume
Force Index = EMA(Force Raw, Period) — default 13
Interpretation:
- Positive Force Index = Buying pressure (bulls in control)
- Negative Force Index = Selling pressure (bears in control)
- Force Index crossing zero = Momentum shift
- Divergences with price = Weakening momentum (reversal signal)
TREND FILTER:
A 50-period EMA serves as the trend filter:
- Price above EMA50 = Uptrend → Only LONG signals allowed
- Price below EMA50 = Downtrend → Only SHORT signals allowed
This prevents counter-trend trading which accounts for most losing trades.
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
THE THREE TRADING SETUPS - DETAILED
SETUP A: CLASSIC MOMENTUM ENTRY
Concept: Enter when STC exits oversold/overbought zones with trend confirmation
LONG CONDITIONS:
1. Higher timeframe STC > 25 (macro trend is up)
2. Primary timeframe STC crosses above 25 (momentum turning up)
3. Force Index crosses above 0 OR already positive (volume confirms)
4. Price above 50 EMA (local trend is up)
SHORT CONDITIONS:
1. Higher timeframe STC < 75 (macro trend is down)
2. Primary timeframe STC crosses below 75 (momentum turning down)
3. Force Index crosses below 0 OR already negative (volume confirms)
4. Price below 50 EMA (local trend is down)
Best for: Trending markets, continuation trades
Win rate: Moderate (60-65%)
Risk/Reward: 1:2 to 1:3
───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
SETUP B: DIVERGENCE REVERSAL (HIGHEST PROBABILITY)
Concept: Identify exhaustion points where price makes new extremes but
momentum (Force Index) fails to confirm
BULLISH DIVERGENCE:
1. Price makes a lower low (LL) over 10 bars
2. Force Index makes a higher low (HL) — refuses to follow price down
3. STC is below 25 (oversold condition)
Trigger: STC starts rising AND Force Index crosses above zero
BEARISH DIVERGENCE:
1. Price makes a higher high (HH) over 10 bars
2. Force Index makes a lower high (LH) — refuses to follow price up
3. STC is above 75 (overbought condition)
Trigger: STC starts falling AND Force Index crosses below zero
Why this works: Divergences signal that the current trend is losing steam.
When volume (Force Index) doesn't confirm new price extremes, a reversal
is likely.
Best for: Reversal trading, range-bound markets
Win rate: High (70-75%)
Risk/Reward: 1:3 to 1:5
───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
SETUP C: QUICK BOUNCE AT EXTREMES
Concept: Catch rapid mean-reversion moves when price touches EMA50 in
extreme STC zones
LONG CONDITIONS:
1. Price touches 50 EMA from above (pullback in uptrend)
2. STC < 15 (extreme oversold)
3. Force Index > 0 (buyers stepping in)
SHORT CONDITIONS:
1. Price touches 50 EMA from below (pullback in downtrend)
2. STC > 85 (extreme overbought)
3. Force Index < 0 (sellers stepping in)
Best for: Scalping, quick mean-reversion trades
Win rate: Moderate (55-60%)
Risk/Reward: 1:1 to 1:2
Note: Use tighter stops and quick profit-taking
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
HOW TO USE THE INDICATOR
STEP 1: CONFIGURE TIMEFRAMES
Primary Timeframe (STC - Primary Timeframe):
- Leave empty to use your current chart timeframe
- This is where you'll take trades
Higher Timeframe (STC - Higher Timeframe):
- Default: 30 minutes
- Recommended ratios:
* 5min chart → 30min higher TF
* 15min chart → 1H higher TF
* 1H chart → 4H higher TF
* Daily chart → Weekly higher TF
───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
STEP 2: ADJUST STC PARAMETERS FOR YOUR MARKET
Default (23/50/10) works well for stocks and forex, but adjust for:
CRYPTO (volatile):
- Length 1: 15
- Length 2: 35
- Smoothing: 8
(Faster response for rapid price movements)
STOCKS (standard):
- Length 1: 23
- Length 2: 50
- Smoothing: 10
(Balanced settings)
FOREX MAJORS (slower):
- Length 1: 30
- Length 2: 60
- Smoothing: 12
(Filters out noise in 24/7 markets)
───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
STEP 3: ENABLE YOUR PREFERRED SETUPS
Toggle setups based on your trading style:
Conservative Trader:
✓ Setup B (Divergence) — highest win rate
✗ Setup A (Classic) — only in strong trends
✗ Setup C (Bounce) — too aggressive
Trend Trader:
✓ Setup A (Classic) — primary signals
✓ Setup B (Divergence) — for entries on pullbacks
✗ Setup C (Bounce) — not suitable for trending
Scalper:
✓ Setup C (Bounce) — quick in-and-out
✓ Setup B (Divergence) — high probability scalps
✗ Setup A (Classic) — too slow
───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
STEP 4: READ THE SIGNALS
ON THE CHART:
Labels appear when conditions are met:
Green labels:
- "LONG A" — Setup A long entry
- "LONG B DIV" — Setup B divergence long (best signal)
- "LONG C" — Setup C bounce long
Red labels:
- "SHORT A" — Setup A short entry
- "SHORT B DIV" — Setup B divergence short (best signal)
- "SHORT C" — Setup C bounce short
IN THE INDICATOR PANEL (bottom):
- Blue line = Primary timeframe STC
- Orange dots = Higher timeframe STC (optional)
- Green/Red bars = Force Index histogram
- Dashed lines at 25/75 = Entry/Exit zones
- Background shading = Oversold (green) / Overbought (red)
INFO TABLE (top-right corner):
Shows real-time status:
- STC values for both timeframes
- Force Index direction
- Price position vs EMA
- Current trend direction
- Active signal type
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
TRADING STRATEGY & RISK MANAGEMENT
ENTRY RULES:
Priority ranking (best to worst):
1st: Setup B (Divergence) — wait for these
2nd: Setup A (Classic) — in confirmed trends only
3rd: Setup C (Bounce) — scalping only
Confirmation checklist before entry:
☑ Signal label appears on chart
☑ TREND in info table matches signal direction
☑ Higher timeframe STC aligned (check orange dots or table)
☑ Force Index confirming (check histogram color)
───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
STOP LOSS PLACEMENT:
Setup A (Classic):
- LONG: Below recent swing low
- SHORT: Above recent swing high
- Typical: 1-2 ATR distance
Setup B (Divergence):
- LONG: Below the divergence low
- SHORT: Above the divergence high
- Typical: 0.5-1.5 ATR distance
Setup C (Bounce):
- LONG: 5-10 pips below EMA50
- SHORT: 5-10 pips above EMA50
- Typical: 0.3-0.8 ATR distance
───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
TAKE PROFIT TARGETS:
Conservative approach:
- Exit when STC reaches opposite level
- LONG: Exit when STC > 75
- SHORT: Exit when STC < 25
Aggressive approach:
- Hold until opposite signal appears
- Trail stop as STC moves in your favor
Partial profits:
- Take 50% at 1:2 risk/reward
- Let remaining 50% run to target
───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
WHAT TO AVOID:
❌ Trading Setup A in sideways/choppy markets
→ Wait for clear trend or use Setup B only
❌ Ignoring higher timeframe STC
→ Always check orange dots align with your direction
❌ Taking signals against the major trend
→ If weekly trend is down, be cautious with longs
❌ Overtrading Setup C
→ Maximum 2-3 bounce trades per session
❌ Trading during low volume periods
→ Force Index becomes unreliable
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
ALERTS CONFIGURATION
The indicator includes 8 alert types:
Individual setup alerts:
- "Setup A - LONG" / "Setup A - SHORT"
- "Setup B - DIV LONG" / "Setup B - DIV SHORT" ⭐ recommended
- "Setup C - BOUNCE LONG" / "Setup C - BOUNCE SHORT"
Combined alerts:
- "ANY LONG" — fires on any long signal
- "ANY SHORT" — fires on any short signal
Recommended alert setup:
- Create "Setup B - DIV LONG" and "Setup B - DIV SHORT" alerts
- These are the highest probability signals
- Set "Once Per Bar Close" to avoid false alerts
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
VISUALIZATION SETTINGS
Show Labels on Chart:
Toggle on/off the signal labels (green/red)
Disable for cleaner chart once you're familiar with the indicator
Show Higher TF STC:
Toggle the orange dots showing higher timeframe STC
Useful for visual confirmation of multi-timeframe alignment
Info Panel:
Cannot be disabled — always shows current status
Positioned top-right to avoid chart interference
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
EXAMPLE TRADE WALKTHROUGH
SETUP B DIVERGENCE LONG EXAMPLE:
1. Market Context:
- Price in downtrend, below 50 EMA
- Multiple lower lows forming
- STC below 25 (oversold)
2. Divergence Formation:
- Price makes new low at $45.20
- Force Index refuses to make new low (higher low forms)
- This indicates selling pressure weakening
3. Signal Trigger:
- STC starts turning up
- Force Index crosses above zero
- Label appears: "LONG B DIV"
4. Trade Execution:
- Entry: $45.50 (current price at signal)
- Stop Loss: $44.80 (below divergence low)
- Target 1: $47.90 (STC reaches 75) — risk/reward 1:3.4
- Target 2: Opposite signal or trail stop
5. Trade Management:
- Price rallies to $47.20
- STC reaches 68 (approaching target zone)
- Take 50% profit, move stop to breakeven
- Exit remaining at $48.10 when STC crosses 75
Result: 3.7R gain
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
ADVANCED TIPS
1. MULTI-TIMEFRAME CONFLUENCE
For highest probability trades, wait for:
- Primary TF signal
- Higher TF STC aligned (>25 for longs, <75 for shorts)
- Even higher TF trend in same direction (manual check)
2. VOLUME CONFIRMATION
Watch the Force Index histogram:
- Increasing bar size = Strengthening momentum
- Decreasing bar size = Weakening momentum
- Use this to gauge signal strength
3. AVOID THESE MARKET CONDITIONS
- Major news events (Force Index becomes erratic)
- Market open first 30 minutes (volatility spikes)
- Low liquidity instruments (Force Index unreliable)
- Extreme trending days (wait for pullbacks)
4. COMBINE WITH SUPPORT/RESISTANCE
Best signals occur near:
- Key horizontal levels
- Fibonacci retracements
- Previous day's high/low
- Psychological round numbers
5. SESSION AWARENESS
- Asia session: Use lower timeframes, Setup C works well
- London session: Setup A and B both effective
- New York session: All setups work, highest volume
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
INDICATOR WINDOWS LAYOUT
MAIN CHART:
- Price action
- 50 EMA (green/red)
- Signal labels
- Info panel
INDICATOR WINDOW:
- STC oscillator (blue line, 0-100 scale)
- Higher TF STC (orange dots, optional)
- Force Index histogram (green/red bars)
- Reference levels (25, 50, 75)
- Background zones (green oversold, red overbought)
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
PERFORMANCE OPTIMIZATION
For best results:
Backtesting:
- Test on your specific instrument and timeframe
- Adjust STC parameters if win rate < 55%
- Record which setup works best for your market
Position Sizing:
- Risk 1-2% per trade
- Setup B can use 2% risk (higher win rate)
- Setup C should use 1% risk (lower win rate)
Trade Frequency:
- Setup B: 2-5 signals per week (be patient)
- Setup A: 5-10 signals per week
- Setup C: 10+ signals per week (scalping)
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
CREDITS & REFERENCES
This indicator builds upon established technical analysis concepts:
Schaff Trend Cycle:
- Developed by Doug Schaff (1996)
- Original concept published in Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities
- Implementation based on standard STC formula
Force Index:
- Developed by Dr. Alexander Elder
- Described in "Trading for a Living" (1993)
- Classic volume-momentum indicator
The multi-timeframe integration, three-setup system, and specific
entry conditions are original contributions of this indicator.
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
DISCLAIMER
This indicator is a technical analysis tool and does not guarantee profits.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always:
- Use proper risk management
- Test on demo account first
- Combine with fundamental analysis
- Never risk more than you can afford to lose
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
SUPPORT & QUESTIONS
If you find this indicator helpful, please:
- Leave a like and comment
- Share your feedback and results
- Report any bugs or issues
For questions about usage or optimization for specific markets,
feel free to comment below.
═════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
Dynamic Market Structure (MTF) - Dow TheoryDynamic Market Structure (MTF)
OVERVIEW
This advanced indicator provides a comprehensive and fully customizable solution for analyzing market structure based on classic Dow Theory principles. It automates the identification of key structural points, including Higher Highs (HH), Higher Lows (HL), Lower Lows (LL), and Lower Highs (LH).
Going beyond simple pivot detection, this tool visualizes the flow of the trend by plotting dynamic Breaks of Structure (BOS) and potential reversals with Changes of Character (CHoCH). It is designed to be a flexible and powerful tool for traders who use price action and trend analysis as a core part of their strategy.
CORE CONCEPTS
The indicator is built on the foundational principles of Dow Theory:
Uptrend: A series of Higher Highs and Higher Lows.
Downtrend: A series of Lower Lows and Lower Highs.
Break of Structure (BOS): Occurs when price action continues the current trend by creating a new HH in an uptrend or a new LL in a downtrend.
Change of Character (CHoCH): Occurs when the established trend sequence is broken, signaling a potential reversal. For example, when a Lower Low forms after a series of Higher Highs.
CALCULATION METHODOLOGY
This section explains the indicator's underlying logic:
Pivot Detection: The indicator's core logic is based on TradingView's built-in ta.pivothigh() and ta.pivotlow() functions. The sensitivity of this detection is fully controlled by the user via the Pivot Lookback Left and Pivot Lookback Right settings.
Structure Calculation (BOS/CHoCH): The script identifies market structure by analyzing the sequence of these confirmed pivots.
A bullish BOS is plotted when a new ta.pivothigh is confirmed at a price higher than the previous confirmed ta.pivothigh.
A bearish CHoCH is plotted when a new ta.pivotlow is confirmed at a price lower than the previous confirmed ta.pivotlow , breaking the established sequence of higher lows.
The logic is mirrored for bearish BOS and bullish CHoCH.
Invalidation Levels: This feature identifies the last confirmed pivot before a structure break (e.g., the last ta.pivotlow before a bullish BOS) and plots a dotted line from it to the breakout bar. This level is considered the structural invalidation point for that move.
MTF Confirmation: This unique feature provides confluence by analyzing a second, lower timeframe. When a pivot (e.g., a Higher Low) is confirmed on the main chart, the script requests pivot data from the user-selected lower timeframe. If a corresponding trend reversal is detected on that lower timeframe (e.g., a break of its own minor downtrend), the pivot is labeled "Firm" (FHL); otherwise, it is labeled "Soft" (SHL).
KEY FEATURES
This indicator is packed with advanced features designed to provide a deeper level of market insight:
Dynamic Structure Lines: BOS and CHoCH levels are plotted with clean, dashed lines that dynamically start at the old pivot and terminate precisely at the breakout bar, keeping the chart clean and precise.
Invalidation Levels: For every structure break, the indicator can plot a dotted "Invalidation" line (INV). This marks the critical support or resistance pivot that, if broken, would negate the previous move, providing a clear reference for risk management.
Multi-Timeframe (MTF) Confirmation: Add a layer of confluence to your analysis by confirming pivots on a lower timeframe. The indicator can label Higher Lows and Lower Highs as either "Firm" (FHL/FLH) if confirmed by a reversal on a lower timeframe, or "Soft" (SHL/SLH) if not.
Flexible Pivot Detection: Fully adjustable Pivot Lookback settings for the left and right sides allow you to tune the indicator's sensitivity to match any timeframe or trading style, from long-term investing to short-term scalping.
Full Customization: Take complete control of the indicator's appearance. A dedicated style menu allows you to customize the colors for all bullish, bearish, and reversal elements, including the transparency of the trend-based candle coloring.
HOW TO USE
Trend Identification: Use the sequence of HH/HL and LL/LH, along with the trend-colored candles, to quickly assess the current market direction on any timeframe.
Entry Signals: A confirmed BOS can signal a potential entry in the direction of the trend. A CHoCH can signal a potential reversal, offering an opportunity to enter a new trend early.
Risk Management: Use the automatically plotted "Invalidation" (INV) lines as a logical reference point for placing stop losses. A break of this level indicates that the structure you were trading has failed.
Confluence: Use the "Firm" pivot signals from the MTF analysis to identify high-probability swing points that are supported by price action on multiple timeframes.
SETTINGS BREAKDOWN
Pivot Lookback Left/Right: Controls the sensitivity of pivot detection. Higher numbers find more significant (but fewer) pivots.
MTF Confirmation: Enable/disable the "Firm" vs. "Soft" pivot analysis and select your preferred lower timeframe for confirmation.
Style Settings: Customize all colors and the transparency of the candle coloring to match your chart's theme.
Show Invalidation Levels: Toggle the visibility of the dotted invalidation lines.
This indicator is a powerful tool for visualizing and trading with the trend. Experiment with the settings to find a configuration that best fits your personal trading strategy.
