M8 BUY @ END OF DAYI've read a couple of times at a couple of different places that most of the move in the market happens after hours, meaning during non-standard trading hours.
After-market and pre-market hours and have seen data presented showing that systems which bought just before end normal market hours and sold the next morning had really amazing resutls.
But when testing those I found the results to be quite poor compared to the pretty graphs I saw, and after much tweaking and trying different ideas I gave up on the idea until I recently decided to try a new position management system.
The System
Buys at the end of the trading day before the close
Sells the next morning at the open IF THE CLOSE OF THE CURRENT BAR IS HIGHER THAN THE ENTRY PRICE
When the current price is not higher, the system will keep the position open until it EITHER gets stops out or closes on profit <<< this is WHY it has the high win %
The system has a high win ratio because it will keep that one position open until it either reaches profit or stops out
This "system" of waiting, and keeping the trade open, actually turned out to be a fantastic way to kind of put the complete trading strategy in a kind of limbo mode. It either waits for market failure or for a profit.
I don't really care about win % at all, almost always high win % ratio systems are just nonsense. What I look for is a PF -- profit factor of 1.5 or above, and a relatively smooth equity curve. -- This has both.
The Stop Loss setting is set @ .95, meaning a 5% stop loss. The Red Line on the chart is the stop loss line.
There is no set profit target -- it simply takes what the market gives.
Non-Repainting System
This does use a 200D Simple Moving Average as a filter. Like a Green Light / Red Light traffic light, the system will only trade long when the price is above its 200 Moving average.
Here is the code: "F1 = close > sma(security(syminfo.tickerid, "D", close ), MarketFilterLen) // HIGH OF OLD DATA -- SO NO REPAINTING"
I use "close ", so that's data from two days ago, it's fixed, confirmed, non-repainting data from the higher timeframe.
-- I would only suggest using this on direction tickers like SPY, QQQ, SSO, TQQQ, market sectors with additional filters in place.
Search in scripts for "spy"
REVERSALS
The systems basically play reversals, it enters when the close is lower than its low of 5 bars ago to enter
It exits when the price is higher than the high of 5 days ago
Uses a 200 MA as a market filter, does not trade when the price is below its 200 Moving average
Uses a 5% stop, as per the red Stop Loss Line -- can be adjusted
The amount of bars it uses to look for reversals is set to 5 by default, but can be adjusted in settings.
Best to use on directional instruments where you know that the long term direction is up, for example:
TQQQ, SSO, SPX, SPY, or sector tickers -- but it would be best to include some more advanced filtering for sectors
Relative StrengthPowerful tool to calculate and display the strength of a security compared to another security.
Some Main purposes are:
- finding new leadership in a market correction
- comparing a market leader with a top competitor
- tracking rotation in the market
.. and so much more!
This tool is highly configurable, you can especially change:
- The reference symbol (SPY, QQQ, BTCUSD, ...)
- The time span to indicate a new High or Low in a certain time-frame
- Factorize your RS-Chart to make it fit to the original chart. (Moves the chart up or down)
- Option to repaint your candles / bars when a new RS High occurs in the given timeframe.
Enjoy and have a great day!
Powerful_Trading
Sector PerformanceThis indicator shows real-time current day performance for 11 ETFs that divide the S&P 500 into eleven sector index funds. The list of different sector ETFs this indicator tracks is as follows -
1. SPY - S&P 500 Index
2. XLC - Communication Services
3. XLY - Consumer Discretionary
4. XLP - Consumer Staples
5. XLE - Energy
6. XLF - Financials
7. XLV - Health Care
8. XLI - Industrials
9. XLB - Materials
10. XLRE - Real Estate
11. XLF - Technology
12. XLU - Utilities
Acknowledgment - This indicator is adapted using the source code from another excellent performance indicator (). Thanks to BeeHolder (www.tradingview.com) for generously sharing the source code.
MarketLeadersSomeone asked me to script this for them and I was surprised at how well it worked
The idea is to check if the top 22 largest cap companies are above or below their MA
By default, the system uses a 20 MA, but you can set it how you want
It checks if the companies including, QQQ (NASDAQ) and SPY are above their MA's and updates the histogram
I've drawn in simple green price break lines to highlight areas of interest
I like this system because it's SO SIMPLE and it uses more data than just look at one stock, it reads the underlying market for the heavy movers.
If the big stocks are doing well, then the market should be doing well too, unless small caps are heavily stalling.
I've also created a strategy based around this and will be posting it soon
Relative Strength ComparisonThis indicator compares the difference in percentage change between two symbols
over a user-specified number of bars.
Default settings will show the difference between the current symbol and the
S&P 500 ETF (SPY) over 10 bars. It can be used to determine if the stock is
showing relative strength or weakness compared to the overall market.
EMAC - Exponential Moving Average Cross - OptimizedEMAC - Exponential Moving Average Cross - Optimized
This is the full Strategy version with the best currently known optimized inputs with the average best settings across the following 26 tickers:
QQQ
TQQQ
SPY
SPXL
AAPL
AMZN
TSLA
BYND
CRWD
DDOG
ESTC
FSLY
MDB
NVDA
PINS
PTON
ROKU
SHOP
SQ
TDOC
TWLO
APPS
CHWY
DKNG
ETSY
FVRR
For the short Study version of EMAC that has been optimized for TradersPost alerts only please see EMAC - Exponential Moving Average Cross - Study
For the original full Strategy version with many editable inputs please see EMAC - Exponential Moving Average Cross
Vix Jump for Selling Puts or Buying CallsThis script aims to identify optimal times when to write Puts for premium, for example using the SPX Weeklies model or simply buying Calls. Not perfect but provides some additional confidence when playing Puts on SPX or the Wheel on SPY.
What it does:
We compare current VIX with a lookback VIX for X% delta. If there is a jump of say 20% over a defined period then that would indicate an opportunity to sell Puts, run a straddle or buy Calls. We use VVIX as a check to stop to many false positives ie VVIX falls of faster than VIX.
You can also use this loosely as a bottom finder.
SPX Options Days Drop By DeltaSimple script that uses the percentage drop for a particular options delta and DTE to show how often you would be assigned on selling cash secured Puts (or naked Puts). Calculate the estimated percentage drop by finding your desired delta in the options chain and divide that price by the current price. For example a Delta of 10% could be $4055 with a current price of $4161 on a given day. The price differential is 2.5%. We test for how many times a 2.5% drop is encountered for our days to expiry (DTE) as this will be the number of times you would be assigned for that position. The lower the Delta the more the price has to drop ie a Delta of 7% would require a 4% drop etc. Objective is to NEVER be "assigned" and make "fee money" selling premium ie Puts.
SPX options expire 3 times a week as do SPY options
SPX options use the European model
SPX options settle in cash ie you are not assigned
NOTE: If you change your DTE you change your Delta and therefore your percentage differential.
Spread AnalyzerThis script plots the relative performance of the viewed security with respect to a selected benchmark. It can be used to identify assets higher than market average potential.
- The plot above is the relative volume.
- The plot below is the relative performance.
Computation is done by applying stochastic to the spread of the asset's current price/obv value to the benchmark defined by the Part1, 2 and 3.
The benchmark can be a portfolio as well:
Part1 = 4*SPY+2*QQQ
Part2 = XAUUSD+EURUSD
-PS: Each part may contain up to 10 symbols.
- The spread is calculated with the following formula
close / (Part1 + Part2 + Part3)
- Color code is based on the stochastic of macd of the spread.
The inputs:
length : lookback length for the stochastic
lenk : Smoothing factor(K) for stochastic
lend : EMA length(D)
MACD Fast / Slow / Smooth : MACD parameters used to determine the color code
MS CRB/SPYThis indicator tracks the GSCI Commodity Index over the course of the S&P 500. This is used for the fundamental evaluation of ratios of asset classes to each other. The thesis is based on Ray Dalio's quadrant theory: in periods without inflation and with good growth, stock prices rise and commodity prices fall. Conversely, in periods of good growth in an inflationary environment, commodities rise and the rise in equities slows. In particular, there is a change of favorites towards companies that produce cash (i.e. away from growth fantasies). This indicator shows the change in valuations between asset classes and thus allows conclusions to be drawn. This still goes far beyond what has been written, I recommend reading Ray Dalio's works on this.
Max GainThis indicator is meant to be used for coming up with price targets based on past performances of rallies/selloffs.
It shows how much a trade could have made over a 30-day period (or other length of time) in terms of percentage gain.
It also show how much could have been lost in terms of percentage loss
The green plot shows percentage gain from current high to the low of the previous 30 days.
The red plot shows adjusted percentage loss from current low to the high of the previous 30 days.
The 30 can be adjusted and the chart can be used on any time interval.
Note on max loss adjustment:
Max loss percentage is adjusted to be higher to account for the fact that a percentage loss corresponds to a percentage
gain of a greater amount. For instance, a loss of 25% can only be recovered with a percentage gain of 33%.
A 25% loss looking at the chart from left to right would be a 33% gain looking at the same price
action from right to left. In order to compare apples to apples visually and performance wise, max loss percent needs to be adjusted.
The actual max loss percent is calculated and plottable but is not plotted by default because it is less useful and adds clutter.
There is not a great difference between actual max loss and adjusted max loss under everyday market conditions, but
major selloffs (SPY 2020), short squeezes (GME 2021), or other unusually directional moves will display percentage losses
that, in absolute terms, should be considered to be fairly incorrect. The adjusted percentages are good indicators of
relative performance when comparing the magnitudes to the magnitudes of the max gain percentages and
are more visually meaningful than the actual max loss percentages in every situation, so they are plotted despite having incorrect values.
Note on bear markets:
This indicator was designed for bull markets but should it be used in bear markets the indicators that are and aren't
plotted should be swapped using the plot check boxes in the settings dialogue if there is interest in using the loss percentages
for actual loss amount calculations while maintaining visual/performance adjustment
As can been seen in the example chart a gain of 16.3% to 17.1% appears to be a resistance level. This level was recently broken through and the next resistance is 24.5%.
The target is a 24.5% gain from the anticipated 30-day low at the time when the price can be expected to reach a 25.4% gain at the gain rate observed in recent rallies.
Previous rallies are shown for reference with their 30-day periods and corresponding gain percentages which are plotted below.
A selloff is shown in red for reference as well. It was drawn backward to trick the tool into thinking it was a gain, so as to demonstrate logic behind the adjustment.
In reality, this was closer to a 9.5% loss, not 10.55%.
I am still experimenting with this indicator to see how to best use it. Ultimately, it helps me do what I was already doing with the percentage gain tools
but now I can do those analyses in a more systematic manner and with charting. Please feel free to ask questions.
Volatility barometerIt is the indicator that analyzes the behaviour of VIX against CBOE volaility indices (VIX3M, VIX6M and VIX1Y) and VIX futures (next contract to the front one - VX!2). Because VIX is a derivate of SPX, the indicator shall be used on the SPX chart (or equivalent like SPY).
When the readings get above 90 / below 10, it means the market is overbought / oversold in terms of implied volatility. However, it does not mean it will reverse - if the price go higher along with the indicator readings then everything is fine. There is an alarming situation when the SPX is diverging - e.g. the price go higher, the readings lower. It means the SPX does not play in the same team as IVOL anymore and might reverse.
You can use it in conjunction with other implied volatility indicators for stronger signals: the Correlation overlay ( - the indicator that measures the correlation between VVIX and VIX) and VVIX/VIX ratio (it generates a signal the ratio makes 50wk high).
Momentum Rotation Indicator [CC]I have developed this custom indicator very loosely based on the Sector Rotation Model (Giorgos E. Siligardos. Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities, August 2012) and I called it the MRI because this is essentially a brain scan of any particular stock. This will not only tell you when a stock is breaking out over the market at large but also how the stock is doing compared to its own history. Buy when the line turns green and sell when the line turns red.
Let me know if there are any other indicators you would like to see me publish!
Bollinger DCA v1Simple "benchmark" strategy for ETFs, Stocks and Crypto! Super-easy to implement for beginners, a BTD (buy-the-dip) strategy means that you buy a fixed amount of an ETF / Stock / Crypto every time it falls. For instance, to BTD the S&P 500 ( SPY ), you could purchase $500 USD each time the price falls. Assuming the macro-economic conditions of the underlying country remain favourable, BTD strategies will result in capital gains over a period of many years, e.g. 10 years.
Recommended Chart Settings:
Asset Class: ETF / Stocks / Crypto
Time Frame: H1 (Hourly) / D1 (Daily) / W1 (Weekly) / M1 (Monthly)
Necessary ETF Macro Conditions:
1. Country must have healthy demographics, good ratio of young > old
2. Country population must be increasing
3. Country must be experiencing price-inflation
Necessary Stock Conditions:
1. Growing revenue
2. Growing net income
3. Consistent net margins
4. Higher gross/net profit margin compared to its peers in the industry
5. Growing share holders equity
6. Current ratios > 1
7. Debt to equity ratio (compare to peers )
8. Debt servicing ratio < 30%
9. Wide economic moat
10. Products and services used daily, and will stay relevant for at least 1 decade
Necessary Crypto Conditions:
1. Honest founders
2. Competent technical co-founders
3. Fair or non-existent pre-mine
4. Solid marketing and PR
5. Legitimate use-cases / adoption
Default Robot Settings:
Contribution (USD): $500
When: Dips below lower Bollinger Band
*Robot buys $500 worth of ETF , Stock, Crypto, every time price falls below the lower Bollinger Band
*Equity curve can be seen from the bottom panel*
Risk Warning:
This strategy is low-risk, however it assumes you have a long time horizon of at least 5 to 10 years. The longer your holding-period, the better your returns. The only thing the user has to keep-in-mind are the macro-economic conditions as stated above. If unsure, please stick to ETFs rather than buying individual stocks or cryptocurrencies.
The Box Percent StratHi guys,
Version Zero (more work needed) of an idea I've been meaning to out into a strategy for a while. 🤯
This uses percent boxes🤔 instead of traditional indicators like RSI, MACD etc. 🤫
Takes the first close price of the series and creates a Top Band 10% up, buys if price reaches that level, and puts a stop on a Bot Band, 10% down
When the first trade is in profit by another 10%, it enters another trade and moves the stop of the first trade to breakeven ~ this way it only has one unit of risk at a time
/// Designed for LONG only on Daily, 2D or 3D Charts👌🏻
/// Uses fixed investment risk amount, meaning you're willing to lose that amount per trade
/// Limit buy to not overpay on entries
/// Idea Based on the Darvas system:
/// System only enters trades on strength, when prices equals of exceeds the green line
/// It ads onto the trades, but only *IF* the previous trade is in profit by the UpBoxSize percent size
/// The trailing stop loss is moved up, with the red line
/// A key idea is to only take one unit of risk at a time, meaning for a new add on trade to be taken, the previous trade should be in profit by the same box size as the new new trade's stop loss
/// This will keep adding trades again and again, and they will stop out at the same stop loss
/// Yellow Circles is an MA that filters out choppy areas -- this system only does really well on trending linear markets like: TQQQ, SSO, SPX, SPY
/// Base setting is 10% UpBox Size and 10% DnBox Size: 15% & 15% will be more accurate but fewer signals. 13% profit and 10% stop loss will give a higher risk to reward ratio
VIX Implied Move Bands for ES/Emini futuresThis script uses the close of the VIX on a daily resolution to provide the 'implied move' for the E-mini SP500 futures. While it can be applied to any equity index, it's crucial to know that the VIX is calculated using SPX options, and may not reflect the implied volatility of other indices. The user can adjust the length of the moving average used to calculate the bands, the window of days used to calculate the implied move, and the multiplier that effects the width of the bands.
Coefficient of Variation - EMA and SMA StDevYet another way to try and measure volatility. An alternative to using ATR is Standard Deviation, it can be used to measure volatility or what is also known as risk. SD measures how dispersed or far away the data is from the mean. It's commonly seen in risk management formulas or portfolio diversification formulas. The problem however is that the numbers that ATR and SD give off from one equity might not be relative to others or its own past. For example, SPY can give a large number despite not being as volatile as other equities while others being compared to can have smaller volatility numbers and still be more volatile looking.
A solution I thought of is to use percentages that are relatable to different equities. I found out another name for this idea comes from statistics and is known as coefficient of variation, also known as relative standard deviation. This helps see the volatility as a percentage and not just a number that only relates to what is being seen at the moment. I put in a border line on the zero level to see where zero is at but also to edit in case there is such a thing as a percentage number that can be too high or too low for volatility to be looked at if needed. The average and standard deviation formulas can use either simple moving average or exponential moving average.
Technical checklistNo one indicator is perfect. People always have their favorite indicators and maintain a bias on weighing them purely on psychological reasons other than mathematical. This technical checklist indicator collected 20 common indicators and custom ones to address the issue of a bias weighted decision.
Here, I apply machine learning using a simple sigmoid neuron network with one hidden layer and a single node to avoid artifacts. For the ease of data collection, the indicator matrix is first shown as a heatmap. Once an uptrend signal window is selected manually, an indicator matrix can be recorded in a binary format (i.e., 1 0 0 1 1 0, etc.).
For example, the following indicator matrix was retrieved from the MRNA chart (deciscion: first 5 rows, buying; last 5 rows, no buying):
1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1
1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1
0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0
1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0
0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0
1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1
1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1
This matrix is then used as an input to train the machine learning network. With a correlated buying decision matrix as an output:
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
After training, the corrected weight matrix can be applied back to the indicator. And the display mode can be changed from a heatmap into a histogram to reveal buying signals visually.
Usage:
python stock_ml.py mrna_input.txt output.txt
Weight matrix output:
1.37639407
1.67969656
1.0162141
1.3184323
-1.88888442
8.32928588
-5.35777295
3.08739916
3.06464844
0.82986227
-0.53092333
-1.95045383
4.14441698
2.99179435
-0.08379438
1.70379704
0.4173048
-1.51870972
-2.14284707
-2.08513252
Corresponding indicators to the weight matrix:
1. Breakout
2. Reversal
3. Crossover of ema20 and ema60
4. Crossover of ema20 and ema120
5. MACD golden cross
6. Long cycle (MACD crossover 0)
7. RSI not overbought
8. KD not overbought and crossover
9. OBV uptrend
10. Bullish gap
11. High volume
12. Breakout up fractal
13. Rebounce of down fractal
14. Convergence
15. Turbulence reversal
16. Low resistance
17. Bullish trend (blue zone)
18. Bearish trend (red zone)
19. VIX close above ema20
20. SPY close below ema20
PS. It is recommended not to use default settings but to train your weight matrix based on underlying and timeframe.
RSI of MACD Strategy [Long only]This strategy uses the RSI on MACD indicator.
BUY
====
When RSI indicator crossing over 30 or 35 line and price above slow ema
Note: when the position already taken, you may reenter on the purple candle
Partial Exit
==========
Partial profit taking option is available in settings. If this is selected , 1/3 position exited when RSI indicator crossing down 80 line
Close
=====
When RSI indicator crossing below 15
Stop Loss
=========
I havent used hard stop loss in this strategy. Reason is , when price going down , indicator may go up ... so just wanted to ride along with indicator ...
Stop loss mentioned in the settings is used in calculation of how many units can be be purchased based on risk level
Tested with SPY and QQQ ETFs on hourly chart
Warning
=========
For the eductional purposes only ...
This is not a financial advise. please do your own research before taking any trading decission
Yield CurveThis script tracks the U.S. 2Yr/10Yr Spread and uses inversions of the curve to predict recessions. Whenever a red arrow appear on the yield curve, expect a recession to begin within the next 2 years. Use this signal to either exit the market, or hedge current positions. Whenever a green arrow appears on the yield curve, expect a recession to have nearly ended. Use this signal to enter the market, or cut current hedges against a recession. (I may update this script in the future to better incorporate the effective federal funds rate into exit points, but for now I am satisfied with the results).
Ultimate Oscillator [Long] StrategyAfter I published Short Selling strategy with RSIofUO , I have been working for Long side strategy with same indicator.
but for Long strategy , I have used only the Ultimate Oscillator ... (Not the RSI of UO)
Logic behind this is , when UO goes below oversold level , high chance of possible reversal from there ...
Ultimate Oscialltor values , I have used are 5, 10 and 15
Signal Line 9
Above values are best/defaulted based on testing the strategy multiple symbols
BUY
when UO crossing up buyLine and close > open ( if the cross over is already done , it will wait for 3 candles to see a green bar i.e close>open )
Note when the bar color changes to orange , that means startegy is ready to take LONG position on next bar. But dont jump here , waith for the startegy take the Long Position :-)
Add
Signal appears when there is divergence (marked in yellow color ) ... strategy doesnt add the position , it is ony indicating you could add to existing OR if you missed the BUY signal you could enter here
Partial Exit
when UO crossing down partial exit level
Exit
When UO crossing down sell line
StopLoss
stop loss defaulted to 3%
Please note , I have slightly modified stop loss exit in this strategy.
Even though price hits 3% stoploss , strategy wont wind up the position ...
First , it will check if RSIofUO is above 30 , then it will hold on to the Long position.
Very reason behind this is , price is falling down and UO is going up ... That means there is bullish divergence here .. so it might turn this losing position to profitable one or will exit you with less than 3% loss.
Tested with SPY , QQQ , TSLA on 30mins to 4hrs. Though winning rate is average , net profit is exponential ...
Best working on 30 mins and 1 HR chart for QQQ
Warning
For the eductional purposes only ...
This is not a financial advise , before taking trading decission please do your own research
RSI of Ultimate Oscillator [SHORT Selling] StrategyThis is SHORT selling strategy with Ultimate Oscillator. Instead of drectly using the UO oscillator , I have used RSI on UO (as I did in my previous strategies )
Ultimator Oscillator settings are 5, 10 and 15
RSI of UO setting is 5
Short Sell
==========
I have used moving averages from WilliamAlligator indicator --- settings are 10(Lips), 20(teeth) and 50 (Jaw)
when Lips , Teeth and Jaw are aligned to downtrend (that means Lips < Teeth < Jaw )
Look for RSIofUO dropping below 60 ( setting parameter is Sell Line )
Partial Exit
==========
When RSIofUO crossing up Oversold line i.e 30
Cover Short / Exit
=================
When RSIofUO crosisng above overbought line i.e 70
StopLoss
========
StopLoss defaulted to 3 % , Though it is mentioned in settings , it has not been not used to calcuate and StopLoss Exit... Reason is, when RSIofUO already crossed 60 line (for SHORTING) , then it would take more efforts go up beynd 60. There is saying price takes stairs to climb up but it takes elevator to go down. I have not purely depend on this to exit stop loss, however noticed the trades in this stratgey did not get out with loss higher than when RSIofUO reaching 70 level.
Note
======
Williams Alligator is not drawn from the script. It is manually added to chart for illustration purpose. Please add it when you are using this strategy , whch woould give an idea how the strategy is taking Short Trades.
This is tested on Hourly chart for SPY
Bar color changes to purple when the strategy is in SHORT trade
Warning
========
For the eductional purposes only
