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Gold/Silver 30m Only Strategy Buy/Sell SignalsIn my free time I felt like coding this strategy, and after backtesting it, it appears that the 30m time frame is the most profitable. I only have been working on it for gold, but it should work similarly for silver as well. This includes no pyramiding, and with pyramiding orders of 5, this strategy is upwards of 100% profitable. Buy order - when price is above the 162 day EMA and RSI is less than 35 Sell order - when price is below the 162 day EMA and RSI is greater than 65 I will probably be adjusting it to increase the profitability and %success rate.
Pine Script® strategy
by MtxTrader
2
[RickAtw] T2 Trend Signal GOLDTrend gold signal Ema strategy The system finds the best entries for a trade. Use in gold, all numbers have been customized for it. Functional T2 trend gold is the second version of my trading system. Be sure to check out the first part! This system gives a signal earlier. Key signals Buy -----> Blue triangle to buy Sell -----> Red triangle to sell Remarks I personally tested this system on my own trading and it helps me find entries for deals. The main thing is, if consolidation has begun, turn off the system, because the trading range is small at this moment, use oscillators Thanks to everyone who supports me. Good luck to you friends
Pine Script® indicator
by AstroHub
6
Iani SMC Sniper XAU v2.2 (Long+Short + News Countdown, v6)Iani SMC Sniper XAU (v2.2) — smart-money logic for XAUUSD. This indicator hunts “sniper entries” using a simple SMC sequence: Sweep → BOS → 50% FVG entry • After London session builds its range, we wait for a liquidity sweep (price dips below London Low for longs / wicks above London High for shorts). • A BOS confirms direction (close breaks the last swing). • First FVG that prints after BOS gives the entry at 50% (mid-gap). • SL anchored to the protective swing (with a small safety buffer). TP is plotted using your Risk:Reward. News countdown (non-blocking): The script does not auto-fetch news; you set daily times (e.g., 14:30, 16:00) and/or specific dates (“YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM”). A countdown label shows “NEWS in Xm”. Signals are not blocked—this is just a safety heads-up for prop-firm rules. Inputs: pivot length, RR, pip size (XAU default 0.10), session filter (after London), news times (recurring & absolute), show/hide levels & labels. Plots & labels: London High/Low (daily), Entry/SL/TP lines, BOS/Sweep/BUY/SELL markers, news badge. Alerts: BOS Bull/Bear, BUY/SELL Entry touch, TP/SL hit, NEWS WARNING. Notes: • Designed for XAUUSD intraday; works on other symbols if you adjust pip size. • Uses symbol timezone; adjust your news times for DST if needed. • Indicator only—no orders, no backtest. Manage risk and execution in MT5/your platform. Changelog (v2.2): Pine v6, robust time parsing, one-line logical expressions (fixed EOL errors), mirrored short logic, cleaner London H/L reset, countdown label. Disclaimer: Educational tool, not financial advice. Past performance ≠ future results. Tags: SMC, ICT, XAUUSD, Gold, Liquidity Sweep, BOS, FVG, London Session, News, Intraday, Scalping, DayTrading.
Pine Script® indicator
by Ianistefian
DZ/SZ - HFM by MamaRight-Empty Wick Zones (MTF) draws Supply/Demand zones from the remaining wick of adjacent opposite-color candles (Classic & Non-classic rules). Zones extend right only through empty space and stop at the first touching candle. Multi-TF scan (H1/H4/1D/1W/1M) with TF-colored boxes and labels showing Demand/Supply + H/L. Demand (red → green, adjacent): Classic: if the red candle’s lower wick is longer than the green’s → zone = (the “excess” red wick). Non-classic: if the red’s lower wick is shorter or equal → zone = (use the longer green wick). Supply (green → red, adjacent): Classic: if the green candle’s upper wick is longer than the red’s → zone = (the “excess” green wick). Non-classic: if the green’s upper wick is shorter or equal → zone = (use the longer red wick). After a zone is created, the box extends right and terminates at the very first bar whose price range (body or wick) overlaps the zone → ensures the plotted area is genuinely right-empty. What you see Zone boxes with distinct colors per timeframe (e.g., H1/H4/1D/1W/1M). Optional labels on each box: H4 Demand / H1 Supply, plus H/L prices of the zone. Labels can sit at the left edge or follow the right edge of the box. Inputs Toggles: Demand Classic / Demand Non-classic / Supply Classic / Supply Non-classic. Timeframes to scan: H1, H4, 1D, 1W, 1M. Min zone thickness (price): minimum height of a zone (in price units). Initial right extension (bars): initial box length; the script auto-cuts at the first touch. Show labels / place labels at the right edge. How to use (suggestion) Use higher TF (e.g., 1D) for bias and lower TFs (H1/H4) for execution zones. Keep only the rule set (Classic/Non-classic) that matches your playbook. Treat zones as areas of interest—wait for your own confirmations (e.g., swing rejection, wick re-entry, structure shift, volume cues) and manage risk accordingly. Notes Because zones are sourced from higher TFs via request.security, the drawing can update intrabar; a zone is final once the source TF bar closes. Min zone thickness uses price units (e.g., on XAUUSD, 1.00 ≈ $1). This tool is an analytical aid, not financial advice or an entry/exit signal. อินดิเคเตอร์ DZ/SZ - HFM by Mama ใช้หา Demand/Supply zone จาก “ไส้ที่เหลือ” ของ คู่แท่งสีตรงข้ามที่ติดกัน แล้ววาดเป็นกล่อง ยืดไปทางขวาเฉพาะช่วงที่ว่าง และ หยุดตรงแท่งแรกที่เข้ามาแตะโซน รองรับหลาย Timeframe (H1/H4/1D/1W/1M) พร้อมสีแยก TF และป้ายกำกับ Demand/Supply + H/L ของโซน รายละเอียดการทำงาน (ไทย) แนวคิดหลัก Demand: เลือกคู่ แดง→เขียว ที่ “ติดกัน” Classic: ถ้า ไส้ล่าง ของแท่งแดงยาวกว่าแท่งเขียว → โซน = Non-classic: ถ้า ไส้ล่าง ของแท่งแดงสั้นกว่าหรือเท่าเขียว → โซน = Supply: เลือกคู่ เขียว→แดง ที่ “ติดกัน” Classic: ถ้า ไส้บน ของแท่งเขียวยาวกว่าแท่งแดง → โซน = Non-classic: ถ้า ไส้บน ของแท่งเขียวสั้นกว่าหรือเท่าแดง → โซน = เมื่อสร้างโซนแล้ว กล่องจะ ยืดทางขวา ไปเรื่อย ๆ และ หยุดทันทีเมื่อมีแท่งแรกที่ช่วงราคา (ไส้หรือตัวแท่ง) ทับซ้อนกับโซน ⇒ ได้ “พื้นที่ขวาว่าง” ตามโจทย์ สิ่งที่แสดงบนกราฟ กล่องโซนสีตาม Timeframe (เช่น H1=ฟ้า, H4=เขียว, 1D=ส้ม, 1W=ม่วง, 1M=เทา) Label ที่มุมกล่อง: H4 Demand / H1 Supply + ราคาของ High/Low ของโซน (เลือกวาง ซ้าย หรือ ขอบขวา ของกล่องได้ในตั้งค่า) ตัวเลือกสำคัญใน Settings เปิด/ปิด: Demand Classic / Demand Non-classic / Supply Classic / Supply Non-classic เลือก TF ที่จะสแกน: H1, H4, 1D, 1W, 1M Min zone thickness (price): กำหนด “ความหนา” ขั้นต่ำของโซน (หน่วยเป็นราคา เช่น XAUUSD = ดอลลาร์) Initial right extension (bars): ความยาวยืดเริ่มต้น (อินดี้จะตัดให้สั้นลงเองเมื่อมีแท่งมาแตะ) แสดง Label บนโซน และ วาง Label ที่ขอบขวากล่อง วิธีใช้แนะนำ เลือก TF ที่ต้องการ (เช่น ให้ H1/H4 เป็นโซนเทรดละเอียด และ 1D ใช้กรองทิศ) เปิดเฉพาะโหมด (Classic/Non-classic) ที่ตรงกับแนวคิดการเทรดของคุณ ใช้โซนเป็นบริเวณ “สนใจ” แล้วรอพฤติกรรมราคา/สัญญาณยืนยันเสริม (เช่น สวิงกลับ, rejection wick, โวลลุ่ม, หรือโครงสร้างจบคลื่น) หมายเหตุสำคัญ อินดี้ใช้ข้อมูลข้าม TF; สัญญาณจาก TF สูง อาจเปลี่ยนระหว่างแท่งยังไม่ปิด (ลักษณะ intrabar update) โซนจะ “นิ่ง” เมื่อแท่งของ TF ต้นทาง ปิดแล้ว หน่วยของ Min zone thickness เป็น หน่วยราคา ไม่ใช่ pips (XAUUSD: 1.00 = $1) อินดี้ไม่ได้ให้สัญญาณเข้า–ออกอัตโนมัติ ควรใช้ร่วมกับแผนเทรดและการจัดการความเสี่ยง
Pine Script® indicator
by starfactorythailand
Hazel nut BB Strategy, volume base- lite versionHazel nut BB Strategy, volume base — lite version Having knowledge and information in financial markets is only useful when a trader operates with a well-defined trading strategy. Trading strategies assist in capital management, profit-taking, and reducing potential losses. This strategy is built upon the core principle of supply and demand dynamics. Alongside this foundation, one of the widely used technical tools — the Bollinger Bands — is employed to structure a framework for profit management and risk control. In this strategy, the interaction of these tools is explained in detail. A key point to note is that for calculating buy and sell volumes, a lower timeframe function is used. When applied with a tick-level resolution, this provides the most precise measurement of buyer/seller flows. However, this comes with a limitation of reduced historical depth. Users should be aware of this trade-off: if precise tick-level data is required, shorter timeframes should be considered to extend historical coverage . The strategy offers multiple configuration options. Nevertheless, it should be treated strictly as a supportive tool rather than a standalone trading system. Decisions must integrate personal analysis and other instruments. For example, in highly volatile assets with narrow ranges, it is recommended to adjust profit-taking and stop-loss percentages to smaller values. ◉ Volume Settings • Buyer and seller volume (up/down volume) are requested from a lower timeframe, with an option to override the automatic resolution. • A global lookback period is applied to calculate moving averages and cumulative sums of buy/sell/delta volumes. • Ratios of buyers/sellers to total volume are derived both on the current bar and across the lookback window. ◉ Bollinger Band • Bands are computed using configurable moving averages (SMA, EMA, RMA, WMA, VWMA). • Inputs allow control of length, standard deviation multiplier, and offset. • The basis, upper, and lower bands are plotted, with a shaded background between them. ◉ Progress & Proximity • Relative position of the price to the Bollinger basis is expressed as percentages (qPlus/qMinus). • “Near band” conditions are triggered when price progress toward the upper or lower band exceeds a user-defined threshold (%). • A signed score (sScore) represents how far the close has moved above or below the basis relative to band width. ◉ Info Table • Optional compact table summarizing: • - Upper/lower band margins • - Buyer/seller volumes with moving averages • - Delta and cumulative delta • - Buyer/seller ratios per bar and across the window • - Money flow values (buy/sell/delta × price) for bar-level and summed periods • The table is neutral-colored and resizable for different chart layouts. ◉ Zone Event Gate • Tracks entry into and exit from “near band” zones. • Arming logic: a side is armed when price enters a band proximity zone. • Trigger logic: on exit, a trade event is generated if cumulative buyer or seller volume dominates over a configurable window. ◉ Trading Logic • Orders are placed only on zone-exit events, conditional on volume dominance. • Position sizing is defined as a fixed percentage of strategy equity. • Long entries occur when leaving the lower zone with buyer dominance; short entries occur when leaving the upper zone with seller dominance. ◉ Exit Rules • Open positions are managed by a strict priority sequence: • 1. Stop-loss (% of entry price) • 2. Take-profit (% of entry price) • 3. Opposite-side event (zone exit with dominance in the other direction) • Stop-loss and take-profit levels are configurable ◉ Notes • This lite version is intended to demonstrate the interaction of Bollinger Bands and volume-based dominance logic. • It provides a framework to observe how price reacts at band boundaries under varying buy/sell pressure, and how zone exits can be systematically converted into entry/exit signals. When configuring this strategy, it is essential to carefully review the settings within the Strategy Tester. Ensure that the chosen parameters and historical data options are correctly aligned with the intended use. Accurate back testing depends on applying proper configurations for historical reference. The figure below illustrates sample result and configuration type.
Pine Script® strategy
by ata_sabanci
XAU 0/5 GridThis indicator draws horizontal price grids for XAUUSD. It anchors the grid to a base price that ends with 0 or 5, then plots equally spaced levels every 5 price units above and below that base. It’s a clean way to eyeball fixed-interval structure for rough support/resistance zones and simple TP/SL planning. How it works Base (0/5): base = floor(close / 5) × 5 → forces the base to always end with 0/5. Grid levels: level_i = base + i × 5, where i is any integer (positive/negative). The script updates positions only when the base changes to avoid flicker and reduce chart load. It uses a persistent line array to manage the line objects efficiently. Usage Add the indicator to an XAUUSD chart on any timeframe. Configure in the panel: Show Lines – toggle visibility Lines each side – number of lines above/below the base Line Color / Line Width – appearance Use the grid as fixed reference levels (e.g., 3490, 3495, 3500, 3505, …) for planning TP/SL or observing grid breaks. Highlights Strict 0/5 anchoring keeps levels evenly spaced and easy to read on gold. Auto-reanchors when price moves to a new 0/5 zone, maintaining a steady view. Lightweight design: lines are created once and then updated, minimizing overhead. Limitations Visualization only — not a buy/sell signal. Spacing is fixed at 5 price units, optimized for XAUUSD. If used on other symbols/brokers with different tick scales, adjust the logic accordingly. Grid lines do not guarantee support/resistance; always combine with broader market context.
Pine Script® indicator
by INVERST_
Lot Size & Risk Calculator (All Pairs)this indicator is designed to simplify and optimize risk management. It automatically calculates the ideal lot size based on your account balance, risk percentage, and defined entry and exit levels. Additionally, it includes visual tools to represent stop-loss (SL) and take-profit (TP) levels, helping you trade with precision and consistency. WHAT IS THIS INDICATOR FOR? This indicator is essential for traders who want to: Maintain consistent risk in their trades. Quickly calculate lot sizes for Forex, XAUUSD, BTCUSD, and US100. Visualize key levels (Entry, SL, and TP) on the chart. Monitor potential losses and gains in real time. COMPATIBLE ASSETS The Lot Size Calculator works with the following assets: Forex: Standard currency pairs. XAUUSD: Gold versus the US dollar. BTCUSD: Bitcoin versus the US dollar. US100: Nasdaq 100 index. Calculations adjust automatically based on the selected asset. TAKE-PROFIT (TP) LEVELS The indicator allows you to define up to three take-profit levels: TP1 TP2 TP3 . Each level is configurable based on your exit strategy. DASHBOARD The dashboard is a visual tool that consolidates key information about your trade: Account balance: Total amount available in your account. Lot size: Calculated based on your risk and parameters. Potential loss (SL): Amount you could lose if the price hits your stop-loss. Potential gain (TP): Expected profit if the take-profit level is reached. SETTINGS The indicator offers multiple configurable options to adapt to your trading style: Levels Entry: Initial trade price. Stop-Loss (SL): Maximum allowed loss level. Take-Profit (TP): Up to three configurable levels. Risk Management Account balance ($): Enter your total available balance. Risk percentage: Define how much you're willing to risk per trade . Visual Options Visualization style: Choose between simple lines or visual fills. Colors: Customize the colors of lines and labels. Dashboard Settings Statistics: Enable or disable key data display. Size and position: Adjust the dashboard's size and location on the chart. HOW TO CHANGE AN ENTRY? Open the indicator settings in TradingView and entering the new data manually Removing and re-adding the indicator to the chart
Pine Script® indicator
by Algoryze
4
Aurous - Horizontal Rays Define Pip Size: Since 1 pip for XAUUSD is usually considered as 0.1, the pip Size is set to 0.1. A 50-pip interval is therefore 50 * 0.1 = 5.0. Nearest Pip Level Calculation: We find the nearest 50-pip level based on the current price of XAUUSD. The formula nearestPipLevel = round(close / pipInterval) * pipInterval rounds the current price to the nearest multiple of the 50-pip interval. Loop for Multiple Lines: We use a loop that runs from -20 to 20 to plot horizontal ray lines 50 pips above and below the current price. The range (-20 to 20) ensures there are enough lines plotted both above and below the price. Horizontal Ray Lines: The line.new function is used to draw the horizontal rays, extending to the right. Plot Current Price: We also plot the closing price with a blue line to make it easier to track the price against the horizontal rays.
Pine Script® indicator
by JThompson29
Quarters TheoryThis indicator helps you to put Quarter Theory lines on your chart. It's defaults are meant for EURUSD , but you can change it for other charts. There are 16 lines in this indicator. For EURUSD recommended settings right now are: Starting Price (Bottom):1.12 and Gap: 0.0025 USDCAD: Starting Price (Bottom):1.315 and Gap: 0.005 EURAUD: Starting Price (Bottom):1.59 and Gap: 0.005 USDJPY: Starting Price (Bottom):107 and Gap: 0.5 USDCHF: Starting Price (Bottom):0.97 and Gap: 0.0025 BTCUSD: Starting Price (Bottom):3200 and Gap: 100 XAUUSD: Starting Price (Bottom): 1230 and Gap: 5 These settings are the ones I use, but you could find better settings for yourself. Works very well on JPY pairs.
Pine Script® indicator
by monzakaamera
2
Horizontal LinesHorizontal lines help you to put Quarter Theory lines on your chart. It's defaults are meant for EURUSD , but you can change it for other charts. There are 16 lines in this indicator. For EURUSD recommended settings right now are: Starting Price (Bottom):1.12 and Gap: 0.0025 USDCAD: Starting Price (Bottom):1.315 and Gap: 0.005 EURAUD: Starting Price (Bottom):1.59 and Gap: 0.005 USDJPY: Starting Price (Bottom):107 and Gap: 0.5 USDCHF: Starting Price (Bottom):0.97 and Gap: 0.0025 BTCUSD: Starting Price (Bottom):3200 and Gap: 100 XAUUSD: Starting Price (Bottom): 1230 and Gap: 5 These settings are the ones I use, but you could find better settings for yourself. It works very well on JPY pairs.
Pine Script® indicator
by monzakaamera
3
CANX MA Crossover© CanxStixTrader Moving average crossover systems measure drift in the market. They are great strategies for time-limited traders. KEEP IT SIMPLE This strategy works both for buys and sells using the reaction line to guide your position against the reactions. HOW TO USE THE INDICATOR 1) Choose your market and timeframe. 2) Choose the length. 3) Choose the multiplier. 4) Choose if the strategy is long-only or bidirectional (longs & shorts). TIPS The strategy works best in bullish markets as that is the primary direction that market such as stocks, indexes and metals like to move. - Increase the multiplier to reduce whipsaws - Increase the length to take fewer trades - Decrease the length to take more trades - Try a Long-Only strategy to see if that performs better. The base set up when you load the indicator is for the 1 minute chart on gold. We found that it also works well on the US Indexes. For other markets you may need to change the length and multiplier to suit the market and back test its results.
Pine Script® strategy
by CanxStixTrader
Toby's Key LevelsAn Indicator that helps determine Key Areas on the chart. You set the values you want the horizontal lines to update. They horizontal lines will be used for exits and entries of trade. My recommendation for these Key Areas are as follows ( These recommendations are mostly for day trading and swing trading ): XAU: Value distance of 50 ex. XAUUSD. NAS: Value distance of 250 ex. NAS100/USTEC. ETH: Value distance of 100 ex. ETHUSD. AUD pairs: Value distance of 0.0200 ex. GBPAUD, EURAUD. CAD pairs: Value distance of 0.0100 ex. NZDCAD, EURCAD. CHF pairs: Value distance of 0.0100 ex. CADCHF, GBPCHF. GBP pairs: Value distance of 0.00350 ex. EURGBP. JPY pairs: Value distance of 2.00 ex. EURJPY, GBPJPY. NZD pairs: Value distance of 0.015 ex. GBPNZD, AUDNZD. Note: These are subject to change and you can alter the lines anyhow you want to suit your trading style. These are what I recommend. Remember, Market is King. Safe Trading!
Pine Script® indicator
by PhilWak
Easy Scalping Lot Calculator for ForexThe calculator was created to make it easier to calculate the lot size on Forex. I planned to use it for the following pairs: AUDCAD, AUDCHF, AUDJPY, AUDUSD, EURAUD, EURCAD, EURCHF, EURGBP, EURJPY, EURNZD, EURUSD, GBPCHF, GBPJPY, GBPUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD, USDCHF, USDJPY, XAUUSD. The indicator is a table that shows the calculation of the lot for a predetermined stop loss. For example, you are planning a trade, have calculated a stop loss of 15 points, and by checking the table you understand approximately what lot you need to use to limit your risk. In the settings you can change the risk and also determine the stop loss value in points. The calculator does not take into account the spread in the calculations. There are websites where you can accurately calculate the lot, but if you trade on small time frames this is not suitable for you. The calculator uses the formula: Lot size = maximum risk / stop loss (in pips) / minimum pip value x minimum trading lot.
Pine Script® indicator
by ermolaevsn
Generation 6 Massive Trend Following for Gold (Note at bottom!)Making this one an open script for you people. Commission_value = 0.02 is the same as a 50 pip gold spread. Start capital $10,000. 1.00 lots = 1 contract on this. Trend establishment with the 600 period moving average, trend continuation with the crossover/crossunder. This strategy is great for finding trends on XAUUSD. Side note: if anyone knows MQL4 coding language for MT4, please let me know, I would like to see the results of this strategy over a period of several years rather than the several months of data that Tradingview Provides. Please PM me, I want to see how profitable this code is over a long period of time. Thank you, and enjoy.
Pine Script® strategy
by MtxTrader
8
Supertrend Reverse Logic StrategySupertrend Reverse Logic Strategy – XAUUSD M5 💡 Overview The Supertrend Reverse Logic Strategy is a contrarian version of the classic Supertrend indicator. Instead of following the original buy/sell signals, it does the opposite — buying when Supertrend sells and selling when it buys. It’s built to exploit short-term pullbacks, fakeouts, and reversals that most traders miss. ⚙️ Key Points Based on Supertrend (ATR + factor). Fully reversed logic. Supports TP/SL by percent or pips. Fixed 1:2 Risk:Reward, meaning you don’t need a high win rate to stay profitable. 📈 Real-world Results Backtesting shows this setup performs most effectively on XAUUSD, M5 timeframe, producing steady growth and low drawdowns. With RR = 1:2, even a 40% win rate is enough for long-term profitability. It’s designed not to chase perfect entries, but to survive and grow steadily — ideal for intraday traders who prefer quick scalps with discipline. 📊 Recommended Settings Timeframe: M5 Symbol: XAUUSD Style: Scalping / Day Trading Optional: Add RSI or liquidity zones for signal filtering. 🧠 Trading Philosophy The edge lies not in following the crowd — but in knowing when to go the other way.
Pine Script® strategy
by PhamTam_04
Strategy XAU/M5 RSI+EMAXAU M5 Strategy — EMA + RSI with Flexible TP/SL Recommended timeframe: M5 Best suited for: XAUUSD (Gold) — can also be tested on other pairs after optimization. Concept This strategy combines trend direction via EMA and momentum confirmation via RSI (oversold/overbought levels). Buy (Long): when price is above EMA and RSI crosses above the oversold level. Sell (Short): when price is below EMA and RSI crosses below the overbought level. This method follows the trend but waits for RSI confirmation, avoiding premature entries during unconfirmed market moves. Entry Conditions Buy: close > EMA and RSI crossover RSI_oversold Sell: close < EMA and RSI crossunder RSI_overbought Default settings: EMA Length = 500 (smooth trend filter for M5) RSI Length = 8, Overbought = 70, Oversold = 30 (sensitive enough to catch early impulses) Trade Management (TP/SL) This strategy supports two TP/SL modes: Fixed Value Adds or subtracts a fixed price value directly from the entry price. Example: TP = +14, SL = -7 (measured in price points, not USD). Pip Mode Uses pip size conversion: pip = syminfo.mintick * 10. TP/SL = (entered pip value × pip size) added/subtracted from entry. Note: although the inputs are labeled “USD/Pip,” the calculations are based on price points and pip-size scaling. If you use a symbol other than XAUUSD, double-check pip size to ensure TP/SL aligns correctly. Suggested Parameters (for XAUUSD M5) EMA Length: 500 RSI Length: 8 RSI Overbought: 70 RSI Oversold: 30 TP/SL Mode: “Fixed Value” (easier for beginners) TP (Value): 14 SL (Value): 7 Default risk–reward ratio ≈ 1:2 (TP twice the SL), ideal for fast-paced M5 scalping. Usage & Optimization Tips Use on M5 timeframe as designed. Adjust EMA/RSI if changing timeframes. Select one TP/SL mode only (“Value” or “Pip”) and confirm actual units. Avoid high-volatility news events (NFP, CPI, FOMC) to reduce slippage. Focus on active sessions: Gold is most volatile during London and New York sessions. Risk management: Risk ≤1–2% per trade. Avoid countertrend stacking when RSI remains extreme in strong trends. Trend confirmation: EMA 500 filters noise well; Backtesting Tips Set initial capital realistically. Include commissions/spread to mirror broker conditions. Keep pyramiding low (0–1) to assess signal quality. Start with On bar close mode, then test Every tick for detailed sensitivity. Strengths Simple and transparent: clear, rule-based signals. Trend + momentum confirmation: avoids catching falling knives. Flexible TP/SL system: switch easily between fixed or pip-based setups. Limitations RSI can trigger early during extended strong trends (persistent overbought/oversold). TP/SL tuning is essential for each market and volatility regime. Disclaimer This is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always backtest and paper trade before using real capital, and practice strict risk management.
Pine Script® strategy
by PhamTam_04
1
Ben's BTC Macro Fair Value OscillatorBen's BTC Macro Fair Value Oscillator Overview The **BTC Macro Fair Value Oscillator** is a non-crypto fair value framework that uses macro asset relationships (equities, dollar, gold) to estimate Bitcoin's "macro-driven fair value" and identify mean-reversion opportunities. "Is BTC cheap or expensive right now?" on the 4 Hour Timeframe ONLY ### Key Features ✅ **Macro-driven**: Uses QQQ, DXY, XAUUSD instead of on-chain or crypto metrics ✅ **Dynamic weighting**: Assets weighted by rolling correlation strength ✅ **Mean-reversion signals**: Identifies when BTC is cheap/expensive vs macro ✅ **Validated parameters**: Optimized through 5-year backtest (Sharpe 6.7-9.9) ✅ **Visual transparency**: Live correlation panel, fair value bands, statistics ✅ **Non-repainting**: All calculations use confirmed historical data only ### What This Indicator Does - Builds a **synthetic macro composite** from traditional assets - Runs a **rolling regression** to predict BTC price from macro - Calculates **deviation z-score** (how far BTC is from macro fair value) - Generates **entry signals** when BTC is extremely cheap vs macro (dev < -2) - Generates **exit signals** when BTC returns to fair value (dev > 0) ### What This Indicator Is NOT ❌ Not a high-frequency trading system (sparse signals by design) ❌ Not optimized for absolute returns (optimized for Sharpe ratio) ❌ Not suitable as standalone trading system (best as overlay/confirmation) ❌ Not predictive of short-term price movements (mean-reversion timeframe: days to weeks) --- ## Core Concept ### The Premise Bitcoin doesn't trade in a vacuum. It's influenced by: - **Risk appetite** (equities: QQQ, SPX) - **Dollar strength** (DXY - inverse to risk assets) - **Safe haven flows** (Gold: XAUUSD) When macro conditions are "good for BTC" (risk-on, weak dollar, strong equities), BTC should trade higher. When macro conditions turn against it, BTC should trade lower. ### The Innovation Instead of looking at BTC in isolation, this indicator: 1. **Measures how strongly** BTC currently correlates with each macro asset 2. **Builds a weighted composite** of those macro returns (the "D" driver) 3. **Regresses BTC price on D** to estimate "macro fair value" 4. **Tracks the deviation** between actual price and fair value 5. **Signals mean reversion** when deviation becomes extreme ### The Edge The validated edge comes from: - **Extreme deviations predict future returns** (dev < -2 → +1.67% over 12 bars) - **Monotonic relationship** (more negative dev → higher forward returns) - **Works out-of-sample** (test Sharpe +83-87% better than training) - **Low correlation with buy & hold** (provides diversification value) --- ## Methodology ### Step 1: Macro Composite Driver D(t) The indicator builds a weighted composite of macro asset returns: **Process:** 1. Calculate **log returns** for BTC and each macro reference (QQQ, DXY, XAUUSD) 2. Compute **rolling correlation** between BTC and each reference over `corrLen` bars 3. **Weight each asset** by `|correlation|` if above `minCorrAbs` threshold, else 0 4. **Sign-adjust** weights (+1 for positive corr, -1 for negative) to handle inverse relationships 5. **Z-score normalize** each reference's returns over `fvWindow` 6. **Composite D(t)** = weighted sum of sign-adjusted z-scores **Formula:** ``` For each reference i: corr_i = correlation(BTC_returns, ref_i_returns, corrLen) weight_i = |corr_i| if |corr_i| >= minCorrAbs else 0 sign_i = +1 if corr_i >= 0 else -1 z_i = (ref_i_returns - mean) / std contrib_i = sign_i * z_i * weight_i D(t) = sum(contrib_i) / sum(weight_i) ``` **Key Insight:** D(t) represents "how good macro conditions are for BTC right now" in a normalized, correlation-weighted way. --- ### Step 2: Fair Value Regression Uses rolling linear regression to predict BTC price from D(t): **Model:** ``` BTC_price(t) = α + β * D(t) ``` **Calculation (Pine Script approach):** ``` corr_CD = correlation(BTC_price, D, fvWindow) sd_price = stdev(BTC_price, fvWindow) sd_D = stdev(D, fvWindow) cov = corr_CD * sd_price * sd_D var_D = variance(D, fvWindow) β = cov / var_D α = mean(BTC_price) - β * mean(D) fair_value(t) = α + β * D(t) ``` **Result:** A time-varying "macro fair value" line that adapts as correlations change. --- ### Step 3: Deviation Oscillator Measures how far BTC price has deviated from fair value: **Calculation:** ``` residual(t) = BTC_price(t) - fair_value(t) residual_std = stdev(residual, normWindow) deviation(t) = residual(t) / residual_std ``` **Interpretation:** - `dev = 0` → BTC at fair value - `dev = -2` → BTC is 2 standard deviations **cheap** vs macro - `dev = +2` → BTC is 2 standard deviations **rich** vs macro --- ### Step 4: Signal Generation **Long Entry:** `dev` crosses below `-2.0` (BTC extremely cheap vs macro) **Long Exit:** `dev` crosses above `0.0` (BTC returns to fair value) **No shorting** in default config (risk management choice - crypto volatility) --- ## How It Works ### Visual Components #### 1. Price Chart (Main Panel) **Fair Value Line (Orange):** - The estimated "macro-driven fair value" for BTC - Calculated from rolling regression on macro composite **Fair Value Bands:** - **±1σ** (light): 68% confidence zone - **±2σ** (medium): 95% confidence zone - **±3σ** (dark, dots): 99.7% confidence zone **Entry/Exit Markers:** - **Green "LONG" label** below bar: Entry signal (dev < -2) - **Red "EXIT" label** above bar: Exit signal (dev > 0) #### 2. Deviation Oscillator (Separate Pane) **Line plot:** - Shows current deviation z-score - **Green** when dev < -2 (cheap) - **Red** when dev > +2 (rich) - **Gray** when neutral **Histogram:** - Visual representation of deviation magnitude - Green bars = negative deviation (cheap) - Red bars = positive deviation (rich) **Threshold lines:** - **Green dashed at -2.0**: Entry threshold - **Red dashed at 0.0**: Exit threshold - **Gray solid at 0**: Fair value line #### 3. Correlation Panel (Top-Right) Shows live correlation and weighting for each macro asset: | Asset | Corr | Weight | |-------|------|--------| | QQQ | +0.45 | 0.45 | | DXY | -0.32 | 0.32 | | XAUUSD | +0.15 | 0.00 | | Avg \|Corr\| | 0.31 | 0.77 | **Reading:** - **Corr**: Current rolling correlation with BTC (-1 to +1) - **Weight**: How much this asset contributes to fair value (0 = excluded) - **Avg |Corr|**: Average correlation strength (should be > 0.2 for reliable signals) **Colors:** - Green/Red corr = positive/negative correlation - White weight = asset included, Gray = excluded (below minCorrAbs) #### 4. Statistics Label (Bottom-Right) ``` ━━━ BTC Macro FV ━━━ Dev: -2.34 Price: $103,192 FV: $110,500 Status: CHEAP ⬇ β: 103.52 ``` **Fields:** - **Dev**: Current deviation z-score - **Price**: Current BTC close price - **FV**: Current macro fair value estimate - **Status**: CHEAP (< -2), RICH (> +2), or FAIR - **β**: Current regression beta (sensitivity to macro) --- ## Installation & Setup ### TradingView Setup 1. Open TradingView and navigate to any **BTC chart** (BTCUSD, BTCUSDT, etc.) 2. Open **Pine Editor** (bottom panel) 3. Click **"+ New"** → **"Blank indicator"** 4. **Delete** all default code 5. **Copy** the entire Pine Script from `GHPT_optimized.pine` 6. **Paste** into the editor 7. Click **"Save"** and name it "BTC Macro Fair Value Oscillator" 8. Click **"Add to Chart"** ### Recommended Chart Settings **Timeframe:** 4h (validated timeframe) **Chart Type:** Candlestick or Heikin Ashi **Overlay:** Yes (indicator plots on price chart + separate pane) **Alternative Timeframes:** - Daily: Works but slower signals - 1h-2h: May work but not validated - < 1h: Not recommended (too noisy) ### Symbol Requirements **Primary:** BTC/USD or BTC/USDT on any exchange **Macro References:** Automatically fetched - QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) - DXY (US Dollar Index) - XAUUSD (Gold spot) **Data Requirements:** - At least **90 bars** of history (warmup period) - Premium TradingView recommended for full historical data --- ## Reading the Indicator ### Identifying Signals #### Strong Long Signal (High Conviction) - ✅ Deviation < -2.0 (extreme undervaluation) - ✅ Avg |Corr| > 0.3 (strong macro relationships) - ✅ Price touching or below -2σ band - ✅ "LONG" label appears below bar **Interpretation:** BTC is extremely cheap relative to macro conditions. Historical data shows +1.67% average return over next 12 bars (48 hours at 4h timeframe). #### Moderate Long Signal (Lower Conviction) - ⚠️ Deviation between -1.5 and -2.0 - ⚠️ Avg |Corr| between 0.2-0.3 - ⚠️ Price approaching -2σ band **Interpretation:** BTC is cheap but not extreme. Consider as confirmation for other signals. #### Exit Signal - 🔴 Deviation crosses above 0 (returns to fair value) - 🔴 "EXIT" label appears above bar **Interpretation:** Mean reversion complete. Close long positions. #### Strong Short/Avoid Signal - 🔴 Deviation > +2.0 (extreme overvaluation) - 🔴 Avg |Corr| > 0.3 - 🔴 Price touching or above +2σ band **Interpretation:** BTC is expensive vs macro. Historical data shows -1.79% average return over next 12 bars. Consider exiting longs or reducing exposure. ### Regime Detection **Strong Regime (Reliable Signals):** - Avg |Corr| > 0.3 - Multiple assets weighted > 0 - Fair value line tracking price reasonably well **Weak Regime (Unreliable Signals):** - Avg |Corr| < 0.2 - Most weights = 0 (grayed out) - Fair value line diverging wildly from price - **Action:** Ignore signals until correlations strengthen
Pine Script® indicator
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