Yen Carry Composite Index + Macro Flow GaugeWhat This Indicator Does
This chart visualizes the strength, trend, and macro conditions supporting or weakening the yen carry trade a strategy where investors borrow in low yielding yen to invest in higher yielding assets
How It Works: Core Components
Composite Index (Blue Line):
A weighted blend of z-scores from:
USD/JPY (strength of USD vs JPY)
10Y yield spread (US – Japan)
AUD/JPY (risk proxy for carry appetite)
VIX (global risk sentiment, inverted)
Z-scores normalize each input to show how far it deviates from recent history (not raw values).
Positive composite trend ⬅️ strong carry environment
Negative composite trend ➡️ signs of unwind or stress
Individual Z-Score Lines:
🟥 USD/JPY
🟩 Yield Spread (US10Y − JP10Y)
🟪 FX Proxy (AUD/JPY)
🟦 VIX (risk sentiment)
Threshold Lines & Signal Markers:
Green 🟢⬅️🟢🟢 “carry active” threshold (+1.5 std dev)
Red dashed line 🔴➡️🔴🔴→ “carry unwind risk” (−1.5 std dev)
Carry Trade Strength Gauge (Horizontal Bar, Bottom-Right) www.tradingview.com
Slots:
🟢 = strong carry inflow conditions
⚪ = neutral midpoint
🔴 = outflow / unwind pressure
A directional arrow (⬅️ or ➡️) shows momentum:
➡️ = composite rising → improving carry environment
⬅️ = composite falling → deteriorating carry conditions
Arrow is placed at the current strength level, visually combining position + momentum
Labels “Inflows” and “Outflows” flank the bar for clarity
Use Case Summary
Macro risk overlay for JPY pairs, EM FX, bond carry strategies
Detect early unwind phases (e.g. if arrow ⬅️ appears in red zone)
Confirm entry/exit in directional JPY trades or expected liquidity to enter the markets
Yen
JPY GBP ROCsRate of change of most volatile JPY and GBP pairs. All pairs ending in JPY are red except GBPJPY (colored yellow --currently most volatile 7/2016). GBPNZD is blue, the other GBP pairs are green, lime and teal. GBPJPY and GBPNZD are my favorite day trading / swing trading pairs. This script allows me to see the action of the most volatile and liquid pairs on one screen. JPY pairs (ex-GBPJPY) are all red so that I see the flow of JPY not so much each pair and its name. Global movement of JPY is what I am after. Same for the coloring of GBP pairs as green expect GBPNZD as blue. ***** EURGBP is plotted as an opposite (with a negative in front of its sma. EURGBP is extremely correlated to GBPNZD, I decided to plot it also.
