DXY Bullish Reversal & Cup FormationThe DXY (US Dollar Index) is exhibiting a strong bullish reversal pattern, with multiple technical signals suggesting upward momentum:
🔍 Technical Analysis Summary:
✅ Support Holding Strong:
Price has respected the horizontal support zone around 98.00–98.50 on multiple occasions (highlighted by orange circles and green arrows), forming a solid base.
✅ Breakout from Downtrend:
A clear breakout above two descending trendlines (black and blue) indicates a shift from bearish to bullish sentiment.
✅ Cup Pattern Formation ☕:
A textbook Cup pattern is visible, where price formed a rounded bottom — a bullish continuation formation. The handle is minor and price has broken above the neckline (around 99.00), signaling a potential continuation toward the target.
✅ Bullish Target 🎯:
Based on the cup pattern and prior resistance, the projected target is around 101.846, aligning with previous major resistance.
📌 Key Levels to Watch:
Support Zone: 98.00 – 98.50
Immediate Resistance: 99.50 – 100.00
Major Resistance/Target: 101.846
🧭 Outlook:
As long as the price remains above the 98.50 zone, the bullish scenario remains intact. The cup breakout indicates strong buying pressure, and momentum could push DXY toward the 101.846 target in the coming sessions.
Trade ideas
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Bearish Setup – Supply Zone Rejection & 🔹 Trend Overview
📊 Overall Trend: Bearish (Downtrend)
📉 Price is forming lower highs and lower lows within a descending channel.
🔻 Recently bounced off a support zone, now heading toward a potential pullback.
🔵 Supply Zone (Resistance Area)
📍 Zone Range: 100.049 – 100.601
🧱 Acts as a resistance block where sellers might step in.
📏 Confluent with EMA 70 at 100.178, strengthening its validity.
🔸 Trade Setup – Short Position
🟠 ENTRY POINT: 100.088
❌ STOP LOSS: 100.587 – 100.595 (Just above supply zone)
🎯 TARGET: 98.000 (With intermediate support levels)
📌 Support Levels
🔹 98.112 – First minor support
🔹 98.106 – Close-range confirmation
🔹 97.885 – Additional support zone
🟦 Main Target: 98.000
⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio
🟧 Small risk above supply zone
🟩 Large reward to downside = Favorable R:R
📌 Summary
📈 Expecting a pullback into supply zone.
🧨 Look for bearish confirmation around 100.088.
🎯 Target the downside at 98.000 for profit.
DXY Technical Outlook – Strong Support Test and Bullish Reversa Chart Summary
The DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) chart illustrates a significant technical structure between strong historical support and resistance zones, with potential for a bullish reversal after a key level retest.
🟢 Key Support Zone: 99.000 – 98.000
📍 Labeled as "STRONG SUPPORT", this zone has held multiple times:
Previous bounce: Early 2023 ✅
Mid-2024 rebound ✅
Current price action once again shows a reaction from this level with a bullish candle forming 🔥
📌 EMA Confluence:
The 200 EMA (blue) sits at 102.401
The 50 EMA (red) at 103.725
Price is currently below both EMAs but near the 200 EMA, suggesting potential for a mean reversion bounce 📈
🔴 Resistance Zones to Watch:
Resistance Zone: 109.000 – 110.000
⛔ Historically rejected in late 2023 and again in early 2025
🧱 Acting as a supply zone — watch for rejection or breakout
ATH Supply Zone: 113.000 – 114.000
🚨 This is a major psychological and technical barrier
🫡 Marked as “NEW ATH” – would need strong momentum and fundamentals for a breakout above this level
📈 Price Action Expectations:
With strong support respected again, a bullish reversal toward 109.000 – 110.000 appears likely (as illustrated by the arrow).
If momentum continues, a retest of ATH zone is on the cards 🔭
However, a failure to hold support could lead to breakdown below 98.000 – watch closely 🔍
🧭 Strategic Insight
Bullish Bias while above support (98.000 zone)
Reversal Confirmation needed above 102.401 (200 EMA) and 103.725 (50 EMA)
Watch for rejection near 110.000 resistance before ATH test
📌 Final Note:
🧊 World Eyes on this Level – As highlighted on the chart, the current support area is under global observation, reinforcing its importance.
🕵️♂️ Stay alert for breakout volume and fundamental catalysts (e.g., Fed decisions, CPI, jobs data).
Technical Analysis of DXY (US Dollar Index) for the Week of May # Current Price Action and Market Context
Recent Price Movement: As of May 23, 2025, the DXY closed at approximately 99.11, down 0.85% from the previous session's close of 99.96. The index has been trending downward, testing two-week lows near 99.14 after failing to reclaim the 100.50 level.
Bearish Momentum: The break below 97.50 on the monthly chart signals a bearish structure with lower highs and lower lows, suggesting continued selling pressure. The next major downside target is around 96.00, with a potential longer-term target near 92.00.
Key Fundamental Drivers: Recent weakness in the DXY is attributed to President Trump’s proposed 50% tariffs on European imports, which have undermined bullish momentum in the dollar. Additionally, anticipation of Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, upcoming US inflation data, and employment reports (e.g., Non-Farm Payrolls) will play a significant role in the DXY’s direction.
-- Chart for your reference --
-- Disclaimer --
This analysis is based on recent technical data and market sentiment from web sources and X posts. It is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Trading involves high risks, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research or consult a SEBI-registered advisor before trading.
US Dollar to bounce? DXY Longs and EU shorts on the table.1. Based on the technical analysis, it seems that the US Dollar will have bounce after all. A quick liquidity purge near the SSL levels might be on the checklist. Nonethless, I'll be looking forward to EU shorts this week.
2. There is also a divergence between EU and GU on HTF. GU has shown liquidity purge on BSL which EU hasn't.
DXY will go to 88-89 in next 18-24 months before 2026 end , sellHow to take trades using Harmonic pattern projection Trade setup is explained below :-
Entry : 1st SL point : 0% is recent top or bottom.
Trailing D: 15.1% is work as trailing SL of buy or sell trade if hit then we have to book profit
.If price goes below 2nd D 22.5% to 24.5% range then early traders can make fresh reversals trade after breaking 1st D 15.1% safe traders can reversal trade after breaking Point D 22.5.4% to 24.5% range
Targets :
Target T1 : 36.1% to 38.3%
Target T3 : 49.1% to 52.5%
T3: 60.9% to 64.8% is our 3rd Target since this is reversal zone so must book profit if break then take fresh trade again
Target T4 : 76.4% to 79.7%
Next Targets are 100% , 127.2% ,141.4% and final Target 161.8%.
How to take reversal trade :
If price going upside/ downside then then buy or sell levels appear on Chart ( Automatically show when price reach any reversal zone of harmonic projection ).
Trailing SL:
After reach 1st Target trail SL to just above or below cost ( for example we are holding sell trade from 100 1st Target 110 hit then move trailing sl to 104-105 and move SL as price move upside or Downside)
Re- Entry :
For Re-entry in any pull back Point D ( 15.1% ) is used for re-entry then SL recent high or low Point SL ( 0% ) .
Blue Line is 1st support/ Resistance
Green line is 2nd support/ resistance
Red line is 3rd Support/ resistance
DXY Bearish Setup: Sell from Supply Zone to 99.100 TargetTrend: 📉 Bearish Bias
Key Zones & Strategy:
🔶 Supply Zone (Sell Area)
📍 100.584 – 100.906
⚠️ Price may face selling pressure here
🔵 Entry Point:
🎯 100.584 (bottom of supply zone)
🔴 Stop Loss:
❌ 100.906 (just above resistance)
🟢 Target Point:
✅ 99.100
📉 Aligned with lower support line
Technical Indicators:
📏 Descending Channel
🔽 Price moving within parallel downward trend lines
📊 EMA (70) – Orange Line
🔁 Acting as dynamic resistance
Trade Setup Summary:
📌 Sell in the Supply Zone
🛑 Stop Loss: 100.906
🎯 Target: 99.100
⚖️ Good Risk-Reward Ratio
Warnings & Tips:
⚡ Watch for Breakouts:
If price breaks above 100.906 ➡️ 📈 Bearish idea invalid
📰 Check News Events:
FOMC, CPI, or other USD events may cause volatility
DXY Weekly analysis (18-05-25 to 24-05-25)📊 Technical Analysis (4H Chart – DXY)
Current Price: ~100.53
Price action shows a rejection from the 100.60–100.80 zone after a minor bullish push. The structure is starting to roll over, and two potential bearish paths are illustrated with arrows heading toward 99.80 and possibly 99.30.
🔍 Key Technical Observations:
Support Zones:
• 99.80 (minor)
• 99.00 – 99.30 (major, previous reversal zone)
Resistance Zones:
• 100.50 – 100.80 (recent rejection zone)
• 101.50 – 102.00 (larger timeframe resistance)
Price appears to be forming a lower high, indicating a possible shift in momentum.
The bearish projection paths suggest potential downside movement unless bulls reclaim control above 100.80.
🔴 Bias:
Bearish short-term unless price reclaims and sustains above 100.80
🌍 Fundamental Outlook for the Week (13–17 May 2025)
🏦 1. Fed Policy Stance
The Fed remains on hold with a data-dependent approach. Persistent inflation and strong jobs data have delayed market expectations for rate cuts—supportive of USD. However, upside may be limited if inflation cools.
📈 2. Key US Data to Watch
CPI (May 15, Wed): Already released. If the print was softer than expected, it may justify the pullback seen on the chart.
Retail Sales (May 16, Thu): Key driver. Weak data could accelerate the drop toward 99.80.
Jobless Claims: Still low, but any uptick may weaken the dollar further.
💹 3. Geopolitics & Risk Sentiment
No significant escalation in global risk events. Risk sentiment remains mixed. If risk appetite strengthens and yields cool off, USD may continue lower.
✅ Conclusion
DXY outlook is bearish near-term if price remains below 100.80.
Expect potential downside toward 99.80 or even 99.30 based on chart structure.
Only a strong shift in data or sentiment (e.g., hawkish Fed remarks or geopolitical tension) could reinstate bullish momentum.
(DXY) Short Setup: Reversal Expected from Resistance Zone1. Entry Point: ~102.430
The price is currently below this level at 101.583, suggesting a potential short setup once the entry level is reached or confirmed.
2. Stop Loss: ~103.196
This is the price level where losses are limited if the trade moves against the intended direction. It's placed above a strong resistance zone.
3. Resistance Point: ~100.580
This was a previous resistance level which has now been broken, indicating a bullish push. The current price is above this, which may signal a breakout.
4. EA Target Point: ~97.857
The take-profit level, significantly lower, indicating a bearish target. This suggests a short position is intended from the entry point.
Indicators and Signals
The chart uses moving averages (likely 50 EMA and 200 EMA), and the price has surged above them, often a bullish signal.
However, the analysis seems to anticipate a reversal from the 102.430 level, expecting a drop back down toward 97.857.
The move from the current price to the target would be a 4.40% decline, a significant move for an index.
Trade Plan Summary
Trade Type: Likely a short/sell from the 102.430 level.
Risk: ~0.77 (103.196 - 102.430)
Reward: ~4.57 (102.430 - 97.857)
Risk-to-Reward Ratio: Approx. 1:6, which is favorable if the setup works out.
Weekly plan for DXYNotes
1. DXY can push higher if it is trading above 100.157 and protecting the FVG at 99.972 and a day
close above 100.700 will gave more confirmations to the uptrend
2. Upside target can be 100.913 & 101.267
3. If it fails to trade above 100.157 and protecting the FVG at 99.972 a price drop can happen
till 98.880 levels
DXY Weekly analysis (10-05-25 to - 17-05-25)📊 Technical Analysis (4H Chart - DXY)
Current price is around 100.00. The chart shows a clear higher low near 99.00, followed by a strong bullish reversal, marked by engulfing candles and momentum to the upside.
Key Technical Observations:
Support Zone: 99.00 – 99.30, a strong demand zone where the recent reversal began.
Resistance Zones:
Minor: 100.50 – 100.80
Major: 101.50 – 102.00, previous structural breakdown area.
The structure suggests a bullish recovery wave is forming after a long downtrend. A confirmed breakout above 100.50 could trigger further upside.
Short-term momentum favors buyers, indicating potential continuation.
🟢 Bullish bias remains valid as long as price holds above 99.50.
🌍 Fundamental Outlook for the Week (13–17 May 2025)
🏦 1. Fed Policy Stance
The Fed is staying data-dependent, holding off on rate cuts due to persistent inflation. Recent CPI and labor market strength have led markets to delay pricing in any rate cut. This continues to support USD strength in the short term.
📈 2. Key US Data to Watch
CPI (May 15, Wed): A hot print could trigger a DXY breakout above key resistance.
Retail Sales (May 16, Thu): Strong consumer data could reinforce the Fed’s hawkish stance.
Jobless Claims: Still at historically low levels, signaling a tight labor market and reinforcing policy caution.
💹 3. Geopolitics and Risk Sentiment
Any global risk-off tone—especially related to China or the Middle East—could trigger safe-haven flows into the dollar. Rising US yields, driven by fiscal concerns and rate expectations, continue to offer support.
✅ Conclusion
Outlook is bullish for DXY next week if price sustains above 99.50. CPI is the major trigger—a hotter-than-expected inflation print could push price through 100.80 toward 101.50+. However, if data disappoints or dovish tones emerge from Fed speakers, DXY may reject from resistance and retest 99.80.
DXY - BULLISH Rocket blast ahead- Off to 122-125 rangeDXY in Weekly time frame.
Lovely correction has likely ended. It was a ABC Correction with a Triangle correction in B though not a regular one. C Impulse seems complete.
Let Dollar Index now go to 122-125 range.
Those shouting Dollar crash will be screwed
Regards
THE KING TRADER
DXY Weekly analysis (04-05-25 to - 10-05-25)🟩 DXY (US Dollar Index)
Move: DXY fell early due to weak inflation and growth, then bounced up on strong job data.
Reason: Market expected Fed to cut rates soon → dollar dropped.
But strong NFP shifted sentiment → Fed may hold off on cuts.
Next Week: If CPI and Fed comments stay hawkish, DXY likely continues higher.
DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) Swing Trading AnalysisTechnical Overview
Trend:
DXY recently reversed from a downtrend and is now showing signs of a bullish recovery, forming higher lows and higher highs.
Current Price:
100.036
Moving Averages:
Price is trading above both short-term and medium-term EMAs, indicating bullish momentum.
Support Zone:
99.450–99.870 (highlighted box below current price; previous consolidation and EMA cluster)
Resistance/Target Zone:
103.000–103.100 (major resistance, aligns with your green target area)
Stop Loss Area:
97.859 (below recent swing low and the lower edge of your red risk box)
Risk/Reward:
The setup shows a risk/reward ratio of about 1.5:1, with a wide upside target and a logical stop below support.
Indicators
RSI (Relative Strength Index):
Currently at 55.08, trending higher but not yet overbought, suggesting there’s room for further upside.
MACD:
Bullish crossover with histogram above zero, supporting the bullish bias.
Trade Plan
Bias:
Bullish (Long)
Entry:
Current price (100.036) or on a minor pullback to the support zone (99.870–99.450).
Stop Loss:
Below 97.859 (to protect against a deeper correction).
Take Profit:
103.000–103.100 (major resistance zone).
Risk Management:
Risk only 1–2% of your trading capital per trade.
Professional Insights
Price Action:
The recent breakout above the moving averages and a successful retest of the support zone confirm bullish intent.
Confirmation:
A strong hourly close above 100.250 would further validate the bullish swing setup.
Confluence:
Bullish momentum is supported by both RSI and MACD, and the risk/reward is favorable for a swing trade.
Fundamental Consideration:
Watch for upcoming U.S. economic data (NFP, CPI, Fed statements) as these can drive DXY volatility.
Summary Table
Direction Entry Zone Stop Loss Target Zone Rationale
Long 99.870–100.036 97.859 103.000–103.100 Bullish breakout, strong momentum, support
How This Relates to EUR/USD
Inverse Correlation:
If DXY rallies, EUR/USD is likely to fall. This supports a bearish swing trade setup in EUR/USD as discussed earlier.
Conclusion
DXY is in a bullish swing setup with a favorable risk/reward profile.
Enter long on pullbacks or confirmation above 100.250.
Manage risk with a stop below 97.859 and target 103.000+.
Watch for fundamental catalysts that could impact the dollar’s direction.
If you need live updates or want to compare with other indices or pairs, let me know!
"Plan the Short: DXY Targeting 98.004 "2. Current Price:
Around 99.587 💵
3. Indicators:
EMA 70 (Exponential Moving Average) ➡️ 99.442 📈
Price is dancing around the EMA, meaning trend is a bit bullish for now.
4. Chart Pattern:
Price moving inside an ascending channel 📈➰
Bouncing between channel support and resistance levels ⚡
5. Trading Plan:
Wait for price to reach the blue resistance zone ⬛ (around 100.5 to 100.9)
Look for sell (short) signals after reaching there ⛔
Expecting a reversal and drop down to target 98.004 🎯
6. Stop Loss & Target:
STOP LOSS: 🔴 100.870 (above resistance zone)
TARGET: 🎯 98.004
7. Key Observations:
Current Trend: Short-term bullish 📈 inside channel
Expected Move: Reach blue box ➡️ sell ➡️ fall toward 98.004 📉
News Events: Upcoming 📅🔔 (could create volatility)
Summary:
* 📈 Uptrend inside a channel.
* ⬛ Wait for price to hit the blue zone (100.5–100.9).
* ⛔ Look for short signals in the zone.
* 🔴 Stop Loss: 100.870.
* 🎯 Target: 98.004.
* ⚡ Watch out for news events that can move the market!
"DXY Bearish Setup: Sell from SBR Zone with Target at 97.800"1. Trendline Support Break:
🟡🟡🟡🟡
These yellow dots mark previous higher lows on the ascending trendline — now broken, hinting at a possible bearish reversal.
2. EMA (7):
🟠 ➖
This orange line is the 7-period EMA, hovering above the price, showing bearish momentum in the short term.
3. SBR + DBD Zone (Sell Zone):
🔵 SBR/DBD Zone
📍 Entry Point: 99.880
❌ Stoploss: 100.390
This blue zone is a Sell on Rally area. The chart suggests price might revisit this zone and then face rejection.
4. Price Projection Path:
↗️🔁📉
A potential retest of resistance followed by a strong drop is projected. The zigzag line drawn shows the expected movement.
5. Target Point:
🎯 Target: 97.800
📉 Expected drop of 2.04% from entry.
This is the price where the trade aims to take profit.
6. Summary:
🔽 Bearish Bias
🎯 Sell near 99.880
❌ SL at 100.390
✅ TP at 97.800
EMA 30 (Red Line): Currently at 99.700 — tracks short-term trendEMA 30 (Red Line): Currently at 99.700 — tracks short-term trend, and price is hovering near this level.
EMA 200 (Blue Line): At 100.935 — indicates long-term trend, acting as dynamic resistance above.
📈 Trade Setup
✅ Entry Point:
Price: 99.699
Rationale: This level has been tested multiple times, forming a support zone. A bounce here signals a potential long entry.
🎯 Target Point (Take Profit):
Price: 102.738
Distance: ~3.04 points or 3.43% potential move upward.
Note: Marked as EA TARGET POINT, which suggests a calculated area possibly based on previous resistance or algorithmic strategy.
🛑 Stop Loss:
Price: 98.624
Reasoning: Just below the defined support zone (highlighted purple area), ensuring protection against downside breakouts.
📊 Risk-to-Reward Ratio
Entry: 99.699
Target: 102.738 → Gain of ~3.04
Stop: 98.624 → Risk of ~1.08
R/R Ratio: ~2.8:1 — favorable setup
📌 Overall Sentiment
This chart indicates a bullish reversal setup from a strong support zone, possibly targeting a mean reversion or trend reversal toward the 200 EMA and beyond.
However, keep in mind:
The price is currently below both EMAs, so the trend is still bearish.
The trade is counter-trend, relying on support holding and momentum shifting.
"USD Index Short Setup – Bearish Rejection from Supply Zone (DBD📉 Downtrend confirmed
➖ Lower highs and lower lows
➖ EMA (7) is sloping downward and acting as resistance
➖ Bearish momentum continues
Key Zones & Levels
🔵 Supply Zone (DBD)
🔹 Zone: 99.540 – 99.681
🔹 Label: “Drop-Base-Drop”
🔹 This is where sellers stepped in before – price is retesting it
🔹 Expecting a rejection from this area.
Trade Setup
📍 Entry Point:
🔹 Enter short around 99.540 – 99.681
❌ Stop Loss:
🔺 Set above the zone at 100.211
🚫 Protects against fakeouts
🎯 Target Point:
🔻 Target at 97.300
💰 Risk-Reward: 1:2.4 (Good!)
Visual Summary
📍 Entry: 99.540
❌ Stop Loss: 100.211
🎯 Target: 97.300
📉 Overall Bias: Bearish
✅ Strong RR setup with trend confirmation
US DOLLARTo confirm my EU view, here is DXY.
The buy zone didn’t hold—price broke through, sustained below, and established a strong new trading range. It just reacted off the 4H sell zone, confirming weakness. Now, all eyes on DXY for a sell-off.
With that being said, fundamentals are heavy this week, so keeping risk in check is key.
Blessings, T