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BRENTOIL trade ideas

Brent oil buyers need successful break of $100 to keep controlBrent oil crossed a downward-sloping resistance from mid-June to refresh the monthly top on Friday. However, a sustained break of the 100-day EMA, around $99.50 by the press time, as well as the $100.00 threshold, appears necessary for the buyer’s conviction. Following that, the black gold price could quickly rise towards the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the June-September downturn, near $105.00. In a case where the commodity remains firmer past $105.00, it can easily challenge the July 29 swing high surrounding $111.30. Alternatively, pullback moves could aim for the previous resistance line, around $95.20 at the latest, a downside break of which could tease the sellers. In that situation, the bear could aim for the weekly support line near $91.50 before rushing toward the $90.00 round figure. It’s worth noting that the oil’s sustained trading below $90.00 won’t hesitate to revisit the multi-month low marked in September, around $83.25. Overall, Brent oil prices recently overcame one key hurdle to the north but the buyers need validation.
VELOCITY:BRENT
by MTradingGlobal
Visualising victory for Ukraine and oil pricesBack in February, when Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, a victory for Kyiv would have been almost impossible to imagine. It's the classic David and Goliath. Recent developments on the battlefront, however, are starting to paint a different picture, showing the possibility of Ukraine ending the conflict with a win. On paper, the war is just between Ukraine and Russia. Its implications, on the other hand, knew no bounds and it demanded to be felt across the globe bringing about economic uncertainties and causing supply chain disruptions. While it did not start the energy crisis, the invasion surely made the situation worse. Nearly seven months into the war, people are hoping it will be over soon. Along with these hopes is the dream that the underdog (and innocent party) will claim the victory. Win for Ukraine Earlier in September, Ukrainian forces managed to recapture swaths of lands in the country's northeast that a few months earlier have been taken over by Russia. Considering this and the possibility that China's tacit support for Russia could be waning, it seems like momentum is on the side of Ukraine. If that indeed happens, it could mean good things not just for Ukraine but probably for the rest of Europe. Orysia Lutsevych, in an opinion piece for The Guardian, wrote that a victory for Ukraine is vital for Europe to be able to live in peace and work collectively to meet global challenges. Considering the support that a majority of the remainder of Europe and countries in other parts of the world have thrown behind Ukraine, defeat would further entice Russia to flout international law and the sovereignty of other nations. "The restoration of Ukrainian territorial integrity and, ultimately, peace will mean the collapse of Putinism as a doctrine and an end to Russian claims to territorial dominance elsewhere in eastern Europe and Central Asia," Lutsevych added. On the other hand, a victory for Russia would validate the country's aggressiveness and fuel its desire to further expand its territory. Russia uses newly conquered territories to stage further conflicts and a Ukraine victory would prevent that from happening. Aside from preventing future wars, a victory for Ukraine is also expected to reduce the risk of a mass famine and even restore the stability of economies that have been affected by the sanctions imposed on Russia for instigating the conflict. What happens to oil when Ukraine wins the war? When the war started, the price of oil surged past the $130 per barrel mark for the first time since 2008. The Brent benchmark neared the record high of $147 in March exacerbated by the conflict. Almost seven months into the war, the prices of oil somehow stabilized and is now at ~$90 per barrel for Brent crude as concerns about weaker economic growth and demand drag prices down. European countries have also been forced to impose price caps on electricity and oil and come up with new taxes for energy companies in order to support their people amid the ongoing energy crisis in the region. Many countries have also started finding alternative energy sources to compensate for the supply cut off from Russia. Russia has been using the energy crisis as another ploy in its grand battle scheme. Earlier in September, Vladimir Putin said: "We will not supply anything at all if it is contrary to our interests. No gas, no oil , no coal, no fuel oil , nothing." The potential impacts to the energy market of a Ukraine victory would depend on how Russia will take its defeat. Will it be a gracious loser and choose to capitalize on rebuilding bridges with countries that have been beneficiaries of its supply or a petty loser that will continue to lock in supply for it to use and to sell to select buyers who are probably allies and supporters?
BLACKBULL:BRENT
by BlackBull_Markets
Dual breakdown in Brent !!!After huge rally it seems that UKOIL which was stuck in range where distribution took place, can break the range down. This rally was indicated by me when Brent was 94, have a look: But, now it looks like the rally is over and it could start stepping down. Also, it has given a breakdown from head & shoulder pattern and along with this UKOIL has also broke the previous trendline support. A closing below 97 can bring a steep fall in Brent but aggressive traders can initiate short here also.
TVC:UKOILShort
by Chaser30
Monthly rising channel favors Brent oil buyers despite inactionBrent oil prices grind higher around late March tops, staying above 10-DMA inside a monthly bullish channel formation. Given the firmer RSI backing the black gold’s gradual north-run, the quote is likely to overcome the immediate hurdle, namely the late March swing high around $124.40. However, the stated channel’s upper line near $127.50, which if ignored could propel the energy benchmark towards the yearly high marked in March at around $140.50. During the run-up, then likely overbought RSI may interrupt the upside momentum around $130.00 and the $135.00 intermediate halts. Meanwhile, pullback moves may remain elusive until staying beyond the 10-DMA level surrounding $119.60. Following that, the support line of the bullish channel, close to $117.00 by the press time, will be crucial to watch. In a case where Brent oil sellers manage to conquer the $117.00 support and reject the bullish formation, there are multiple supports around $115.50 and $115.000 before directing the quote towards May’s low near $101.90. Overall, oil prices remain firmer inside a bullish chart pattern and are likely to rise further. However, the upside momentum will be shaky and hence needs the trader’s discretion.
VELOCITY:BRENT
by MTradingGlobal
Brent oil again approaches $116.00 key resistanceBrent oil prices managed to bounce off the crucial SMAs and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the late February to early March rally, despite posting meager weekly gains. Firmer RSI and the higher-low formation since April also keep the black gold on the bull’s radar. However, the upside bias needs validation from a two-month-old horizontal hurdle surrounding $116.00. Should the UK energy benchmark rally past $116.00, it becomes capable of crossing the $120.00 threshold, which in turn makes it eligible to challenge the late March high near $124.50. In a case where the commodity prices manage to stay firmer past $124.50, the yearly peak of $135.35 will gain the market’s attention. On the contrary, pullback moves remain elusive unless staying beyond an area comprising the 50-DMA and the 20-DMA, around $109.00. If at all the quote drop below $109.00, the $100.00 psychological magnet, also including the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, should be on the bear’s hit list. It’s worth noting that April’s low of around $99.30 is the last defense for the Brent oil buyers, a break of which will make it vulnerable to revisiting February lows surrounding $90.00. Overall, Brent oil prices are ready to rise but the bulls need to cross the $116.00 barrier.
VELOCITY:BRENT
by MTradingGlobal