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OIL AND NATURAL GAS CORPORATIOOIL AND NATURAL GAS CORPORATIOOIL AND NATURAL GAS CORPORATIO

OIL AND NATURAL GAS CORPORATIO

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ONGC trade ideas

ONGC – Target 211, 234, 246, 272 (Upside 7.5% to 37%)Stock is progressing well on intermediate wave three of first primary of third cycle. Currently it is in minute wave (iii) of minor 5, which is targeted at 211 with confluence of targets of both. Target for intermediate wave 3 is 245 (towards first target of cycle wave at 270). It has also successfully broken out of larger TF supply zone with 4 daily TF candles closing above the zone. MACD slightly higher than its tops during minor movement, RSI mid and MFI not in overbought zone. ATR is on rising trend @4.6 bouncing from support level of 2.6. Weekly R2 was rejected and found support at Pivot. Quarterly and monthly R1 was broken and reverted, crucial to see it closing above 196 and 201 respectively. Camarilla R4 was broken with good momentum and volume and has reverted probably to confirm the breakout, good indicator of a rally ahead. It has also broken the upper boundary of minor and minute channels and holding above it. Positive confluence of bullishness. There seems to be reasonably decent accumulation at all levels, though volumes were heavy during first minor, fairly balanced during third and lower but steady during minor fifth in progress. Currently trading at a P/E of 5.7 & EV/EBITDA of less than 4x. With a dividend yield of > 7%, the valuations are still on the lower side of fair value gap. Analysts have given target of 215+. I did some quick maths myself to convince me on a valuation of 234-272for the reasons mentioned as follows: 1) Long term beta of stock is sub 0.7x, doing a valuation along the efficient frontier (CAPM), I get Ke at 13% (Rf 7.25% ~ 10Y yield) - P/E of 7.7x, this gives me valuation of 235 for standalone, and incorporating subsidiaries / JV / holdings at CMP with 50% discount, I get 272 as fair Price including subs. 2) Even if we take Beta as 1, the resultant Ke is 15.5% implied P/E of 6.45, standalone value is 198 and with subs its 234. 3) Above numbers of valuation are based annualized EPS, with Q324 EPS estimated by me at INR 6.9 (substantially lower than analysts estimates around 9, QoQ at -17.5%). Reason, analysts have assumed sale of Gas during the Q324 @ $6.5 / MMBTU while I have assumed $3.3 per MMBTU, oil price realisation should be marginally better QoQ in running quarter. All these gives me annualized EPS of 30.62 which is the basis for valuation above. While subs stake value is taken @ 50% discount, the latent value remains, even though stocks like HPCL, OICL & GAIL have rallied substantially, a 50% discount is more than safe. 4) High Dividend yield of ~7%, RoE 17.8%, RoI 9.5%, high grade credit ratings, size of the firm etc. remain a plus. Even though I am late in the party, I am long with target of 234-272 (234 trading target, 272 investing target in about a year) even though it’s a riskier trading setup from short term trading perspective. Stop loss would be 166 to negate ensuing movement as impulse. Stop loss will be deep in case of wave theory as against usual 2xATR. RRR is low as am late in the party. I would be glad to hear feedback from traders / investors tracking the stock. Feedbacks keep me motivated to share my trading thesis. Disclaimer : The contents herein are my personal views, for me to make an investment decision, shared here with an objective of seeking views and comments from traders community at trading view platform. Nothing contained herein should be construed as an advice, offer, inducement or encouragement to buy or sell any shares, security, derivatives linked to the security, debt security or any other security of the company mentioned herein. The readers must make their own independent assessment, evaluation and valuation of the company and/or any of the securities issued by it or referenced to it. The reader is advised to take advice from their professional financial advisors before entering into any transaction or making a financial decision, without relying on anything contained hereinabove, or views given as addendum or comments hereafter. The author shall not be responsible or liable, directly or indirectly, for any loss or damage, including loss of profits, caused to the reader, or any other person or third party, whether pecuniary or otherwise, whether in present or in future, whether incurred or probable. Any replication of the contents herein is strictly prohibited except with the prior written consent of the author.
NSE:ONGCLong
by Gjain75
4
Breakout Alert: ONGC Channel Breakout Above 300,Details: Asset: Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) Breakout Level: Above 300 Confirmation: Channel breakout with increasing volume Targets: 320 and 340 Stop Loss: Below breakout level or as per risk tolerance Timeframe: Short to medium-term Rationale: ONGC has broken out above the upper boundary of its trading channel at the 300 level. This breakout is supported by increasing volume, indicating potential bullish momentum. The targets for this move are set at 320 and 340, considering the continuation of the upward trend. Risk-Reward Ratio: Depends on individual risk appetite and stop-loss placement. Remember to conduct thorough analysis and implement appropriate risk management strategies before initiating any trades.
NSE:ONGCLong
by CyborgTradingHub
ONGC bullish; above 283.5 ? - Tuesday 16th Apr.The above information does not constitute investment/trading recommendation and it is purely for educational purpose. Please check the Strategy below... SWING Trading Strategy: Position is created, only upon stock closing above the entry price on day closing basis and is held on for 5-10 trading sessions for larger gains (5-10%) INTRADAY Trading Strategy: 1) Impulse upmove stage: The strong upmove (nearly upto 2% from breakoutprice) happens within five to 15 minutes. "High Risk Traders" buy in hope of another 2% upmove intraday. "High Risk Traders" patiently wait through the Pullback-Consolidation stage to realize profits. High risk/High reward set up as breakouts may fakeout (reversal)also 2) Pullback-Consolidation stage: After the above "Impulse upmove stage"; the price may then pull back and move sideways (between "Open" price and "High" of the above "Impulse upmove stage"). Safe traders with minimum risk profile wait for a breakout from the consolidation to enter at this stage to relize high profits in the final intraday final "Breakout continuation" stage 3) Breakout continuation: Stocks often in the third stage breaks up above the "High" of the first "Impulse upmove stage" and continue to go higher again. Both Safe Traders/High Risk Traders book profits at this stage This do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendation.
NSE:ONGCLong
by JJ_Breakouts
ONGC -Turning Upside Down (Picked 60 for 200 / 300)- Careful!Disclaimer: Trading in financial markets involves substantial risks. Consult your financial advisor before making decisions. This commentary is not a solicitation to buy or sell. WaveTalks - Market Whispers: Can you hear them? April 2024 Stock reached close to 300 & completed all its target as expected in 2020 . Time to be careful ? Why ? Close to Resistance of 314 . Unfolding Bearish Bat with PRZ 88.6% classic zone 300-275 . Stock topped at 287 Stop loss Pattern invalidates above 287 . June 2020 Video Idea ( Short Term Sell & Long Term Pick holding 55-60 for 200+ & 300+) Dec 2020 Follow up - Did you pick this stock for your portfolio Nov 2021 Reaching close to 210 Target
NSE:ONGCShort
by WaveTalks
3
Trying for ATHONGC - Price closed above the trendline. Price is trying to reach ATH. 300 - 295 levels may see profit booking. Accumulate till 261 will become buy average of 270. Keeping 257 SL and immediate target of 295 - 300 gives 1:2 setup. If price doesn't come down for accumulation or if SL hits then get out of the trade do not stick to it. Keep an eye on OILINDIA too. Market is already seeing profit booking in some of the stocks. Be careful. I am not taking trade in this. I invested 10K in Quant PSU Fund for 1 year, will add another 10K to average if price falls. So skipping PSU stocks trades except for some already invested stocks.
NSE:ONGCLong
by RS_V