Gold Stretched but Strong Waiting for PullbackGold is moving aggressively and relentlessly, day by day, with no signs of exhaustion. The price has once again printed a fresh all-time high and is now trading around 3650, pushing higher without any meaningful rejection on the daily, weekly, or monthly charts. Momentum remains strong, but the rally is clearly stretched, and chasing buys at these levels looks more like FOMO than a high-probability setup. On the Fibonacci extension, the next major resistance is seen at 3681, which also aligns with the monthly R3 level, making it a critical zone to watch. Buying directly into this resistance is risky, and the better approach is to wait for a healthy pullback before looking for new longs. On the downside, 3600 now acts as immediate support, followed by 3550 as the secondary support level. As long as these supports hold, the broader structure remains bullish, but patience will be key for catching the next move.
CFDGOLD trade ideas
Gold Breaks New Highs, Momentum Still Favouring BullsHello everyones,
The past week has been quite rewarding for gold as it surged through major resistance levels and printed fresh highs. On the H4 chart, the trend looks very clear: price action is holding firmly above the Ichimoku cloud, with Tenkan sitting comfortably above Kijun, and the cloud slope widening further. Multiple Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) remain unfilled below, showing that buying momentum is powerful and liquidity is being left behind — a signature of a strong rally, not just a short-term move.
In terms of price action, the immediate resistance lies between $3,535–3,560. A clean H4 close above this area may unlock the next natural expansion towards $3,580–3,600. On the downside, layered supports are found at $3,520–3,505, then $3,485–3,470, and deeper at $3,440–3,420, coinciding with the upper edge of the cloud, often tested during medium-term uptrends.
Fundamentally, the environment still favours buyers: safe-haven demand is rising, the Fed is expected to ease policy sooner, and the USD is weakening, all adding fuel to the bullish case. Unless gold closes back into the cloud and loses the $3,440–3,420 zone, the probability of trend continuation remains high.
Do you think gold can stretch further from here? Share your thoughts below!
Gold Trading Strategy for 09th September 2025📊 Gold Trading Setup
🟢 Buy Setup
Condition: Enter long above the high of the 1-hour candle that closes above $3655.
Targets:
🎯 Target 1: $3667
🎯 Target 2: $3678
🎯 Target 3: $3689
🔴 Sell Setup
Condition: Enter short below the low of the 1-hour candle that closes below $3616.
Targets:
🎯 Target 1: $3605
🎯 Target 2: $3595
🎯 Target 3: $3585
⚠️ Disclaimer
📌 This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Trading in Gold or any financial instrument involves risk, including potential loss of capital. Please do your own research (DYOR) and consult with a financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
“XAUUSD – Strong Retracement From New All-Time High (ATH) 3650“XAUUSD – Strong Retracement From New All-Time High (ATH) 3650
Gold (XAUUSD) reached the all-time high resistance / PRZ zone (3645–3680) and immediately showed rejection signs, confirming this level as a high-probability reversal point.
📊 Technical Breakdown
PRZ Rejection: The move above 3650 failed to sustain, indicating a liquidity grab and false breakout structure.
Momentum Exhaustion: A parabolic advance from 3330 support into ATH left behind multiple imbalances (FVGs) that now attract price back down.
Liquidity Dynamics: The rejection suggests buy-side liquidity has been taken, and the market may now seek sell-side liquidity below recent swing lows.
Market Structure: Intraday structure shows early signs of a bearish shift, with lower highs forming under 3635–3625.
🎯 Downside Targets
3585–3578 → First corrective level (38.2% retracement).
3565 → Key midpoint of the rally.
3545–3516 → Liquidity + 61.8–78.6% retracement cluster.
3480–3460 → Previous consolidation base.
3330–3320 → Major high-timeframe support demand zone.
⚠️ Invalidation
If buyers reclaim 3660–3680 with strong daily closes, the bearish retracement scenario will be invalidated, opening the path toward new ATH extensions.
📌 Conclusion:
Gold’s rejection at 3650 ATH PRZ is a significant technical signal. Current order flow suggests a retracement phase toward 3580–3515, with potential extension to 3330–3320 key support if selling pressure persists.
XAUUSD – Weekly Trading Plan: Bulls Still in Control MMFLOW TRADING PLAN XAUUSD
Market View:
Gold (XAUUSD) is trading exactly as expected from our weekly outlook. After the big Nonfarm push near $3600/oz ATH, price is consolidating around 357x–358x while holding the rising trendline. Both Daily and Weekly charts remain bullish, showing that buyers are still strong. The bias for this week stays upside, but volatility can come from key US data (PPI, CPI, Jobless Claims, UoM Sentiment).
Technical Outlook (H1 Chart):
Structure is bullish as long as price holds above 3550.
If 3592 breaks cleanly → more upside towards 3620–3640+.
If 3575 or 3530 breaks → expect a pullback before buyers return.
Trading Plan:
🔵 BUY ZONE: 3552 – 3550 | SL: 3544 | TP: 3556 → 3560 → 3565 → 3570 → 3575 → 3580 → ????
🔵 BUY SCALP: 3573 – 3571 | SL: 3567 | TP: 3578 → 3582 → 3586 → 3590 → ????
🔴 SELL SCALP: 3598 – 3600 | SL: 3604 | TP: 3595 → 3590 → 3585 → 3580 → 3570 → 3560 → ????
🔴 SELL ZONE: 3631 – 3633 | SL: 3638 | TP: 3626 → 3622 → 3618 → 3614 → 3610 → 3600 → ????
Summary:
✅ Gold remains in a strong uptrend.
👉 Watch 3592 (bullish trigger) and 3575 (bearish trigger) – these levels will decide the next big move.
Follow MMFLOW TRADING for daily setups and updates.
XAU/USD – GOLD 08/09 | Captain VincentObserving JPY & USD | Buy still holds dominance
🔎 Captain’s Log – News Context
This morning there were no major new updates.
The US session tonight (08/09) will also not release big data.
The latest impact on the market is Japanese PM S. Ishiba’s resignation , which pressured JPY downward and slightly lifted the Dollar.
However, Gold only made a small correction and maintained strong stability.
➡️ Captain’s Summary: Dollar and JPY currently only have indirect influence, not enough to push Gold deeply lower. The main trend is still supported for a bullish rebound.
📈 Captain’s Chart – Technical Analysis
Captain’s Shield (Main Support):
Golden Harbor OB: 3542 – 3549
Main Buy Zone: 3549 – 3551
Liquidity Dock: 3573 – 3575
Storm Breaker (Resistance):
Quick Boarding: 3602 – 3604 (Short-term Sell scalp)
Storm Breaker Peak: 3632 – 3634 (Sell zone – may form a new ATH)
⏩ Price structure remains bullish (continuous BOS). Corrections are mainly liquidity grabs before pushing up to higher resistance zones.
🎯 Captain’s Map – Trade Scenarios
✅ Golden Harbor (BUY – Priority)
Buy Zone: 3549 – 3551 | SL: 3542 | TP: 3553 → 3557 → 3560 → 3563 → 35xx
Liquidity Dock: 3573 – 3575 | SL: 3565 | TP: 3578 → 3581 → 3583 → 35xx
⚡ Quick Boarding (SELL Scalp – Short-term)
Entry: 3602 – 3604
SL: 3610
TP: 3600 → 3597 → 3594 → 3591 → 3588 → 35xx
🌊 Storm Breaker (SELL Zone – New ATH)
Entry: 3632 – 3634
SL: 3640
TP: 3629 → 3625 → 3623 → 3619 → 361x
⚓ Captain’s Note
“The golden ship sails steadily as the seas remain calm this morning, with no big news waves. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3549 – 3551) together with OB near 3542 is the safe anchorage for sailors riding the bullish trend. Liquidity Dock ⚓ (3573 – 3575) is just a temporary anchor before the bullish winds carry the ship further. Quick Boarding 🚤 (3602 – 3604) is for those who want to ride short-term waves. And if the ship touches Storm Breaker 🌊 (3632 – 3634) , it may be a new wave peak – but the grand journey is still headed North with the bullish sails full of wind.”
Gold Surges 37% YTD: Fed Cuts, Jobs Slump & Trade Setups!Namaste, traders! Gold (XAU/USD) has skyrocketed 37% in 2025, building on a 27% rally in 2024, fueled by a weakening USD, central bank buying, loose monetary policies, and global economic/geopolitical unrest. With US jobs growth tanking in August 2025 and unemployment climbing to 4.3%, markets are betting big on Fed rate cuts: 90% chance of 0.25% and 10% for 0.5% in September. Let’s dive into today’s (08/09/2025) action and uncover trading opportunities tailored for Indian investors! 💰
Fundamental Analysis: Why Gold Keeps Shining Bright 🌟
Massive Rally: Gold thrives in low-rate, high-uncertainty environments—perfect for India’s gold-loving market! Weak USD and central bank purchases are key drivers. 📈
US Jobs Slump: August data shows a sharp slowdown in hiring and a 4.3% unemployment rate, boosting Fed rate cut expectations and safe-haven demand.
Fed Drama Fuels Gold: Trump’s attempt to sack Fed Governor Lisa Cook and pressure for rate cuts has sparked legal battles, shaking USD confidence. Tariff tensions (Trump’s appealing to the Supreme Court after lower court losses) further drive gold as a hedge. Standard Chartered sees more upside amid these uncertainties.
Demand Dip in India: Record-high prices have slowed physical gold demand in India and China this week, but the bullish outlook remains strong for Indian investors chasing safety.
Gold’s your ultimate bet in this volatile market—will the Fed’s next move keep the rally alive?
Technical Analysis: Breakouts & Liquidity Grabs—Stay Sharp! 📉
In today’s early Asian session, gold dipped to 358x before a swift rebound, smashing last week’s ATH resistance at 3600 and hitting 361x. No major news triggered this spike, but continuous ATHs mean fast liquidity sweeps—beware of traps! Avoid FOMO: Focus on broken round levels for BUY setups or structure breaks at round numbers for SELL, but watch out for false breakouts.
Key Resistance: 3614 - 3624 - 3634 - 3644
Key Support: 3597 - 3581 - 3574 - 3566 - 3560 - 3550
Trading Opportunities:
Sell Scalp: 3624 - 3626
SL: 3630
TP: 3621 - 3616 - 3611 - 3606
Sell Zone: 3634 - 3636
SL: 3644
TP: 3626 - 3616 - 3606 - 3596
Buy Scalp: 3596 - 3594
SL: 3591
TP: 3599 - 3604 - 3609 - 3614
Buy Zone: 3581 - 3579
SL: 3571
TP: 3589 - 3599 - 3609 - 3619
Gold’s breaking out, but fakeouts are everywhere—wait for confirmations at key levels! If supports hold, bulls could push for new highs. 📊💡
Gold 1H – Smart Money Plays Below 3,600Gold on the 1H timeframe is consolidating close to 3,600 after sweeping short-term liquidity. Price is currently forming imbalance around intraday highs, while demand is positioned lower at 3,565. This structure suggests engineered moves designed to trap both buyers and sellers before the next expansion.
________________________________________
📌 Key Structure & Liquidity Zones (1H):
• 🔼 Buy Zone 3,565 – 3,563 (SL 3,560): Discount demand block, aligned with bullish order flow.
• 📍 Scalp Sell Zone 3,594 – 3,596 (SL 3,601): Intraday rejection pocket; scalp opportunity.
• 🔽 Sell Zone 3,630 – 3,628 (SL 3,637): Premium supply zone, suitable for liquidity sweep reaction.
________________________________________
📊 Trading Ideas (Scenario-Based):
🔺 Buy Setup – Demand Block Reaction
• Entry: 3,565 – 3,563
• Stop Loss: 3,560
• Take Profits:
o TP1: 3,585
o TP2: 3,595
o TP3: 3,600+
👉 Expectation is for liquidity sweep into discount demand before resuming bullish trend.
🔻 Sell Scalp Setup – Intraday Reaction
• Entry: 3,594 – 3,596
• Stop Loss: 3,601
• Take Profits:
o TP1: 3,592
o TP2: 3,590
o TP3: 3,585 → 3,580 → 3,570 → 3,560
👉 Short-term liquidity pocket; scalp trades only with strict risk control.
🔻 Sell Setup – Premium Rejection
• Entry: 3,630 – 3,628
• Stop Loss: 3,637
• Take Profits:
o TP1: 3,610
o TP2: 3,600
o TP3: 3,590
👉 Targeting liquidity lying below intraday lows; best for quick short opportunities.
________________________________________
🔑 Strategy Note
Overall bias remains bullish, but smart money may engineer a sweep of 3,626–3,630 supply before driving price back into 3,565 demand. Cleaner setup is to buy dips, while sell scalps are short-lived opportunities.
xau paper trade placedjuda swing completed in asian session..now london will continue bearish ,
Asian Session Recap: Price action showed a completed swing, likely testing a key resistance zone before reversing.
London Session Setup:
Bias: Bearish continuation expected, especially if price remains below intraday resistance zones.
Key Resistance: Watch the $3,500–$3,530 zone for potential rejection.
Support Targets:
First target: $3,470 zone
Extended target: $3,430–$3,440 zone if momentum picks up
Indicators to Watch:
DXY strength (U.S. Dollar Index): If it holds above 97.70, gold may stay pressured
Volume and volatility spikes around London open
Gold sentiment Here is a detailed technical and sentiment analysis for gold incorporating RSI, MACD, Ichimoku, and Volume, based on the charts and data you provided, followed by a concrete trading strategy.
Overall Sentiment: Bullish Exhaustion at a Critical Juncture
The market is in a state of powerful bullish momentum fueled by weak economic data (NFP) but is showing clear technical signs of exhaustion and overbought conditions. This creates a high-risk environment where a significant pullback is increasingly probable before any next leg up.
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Technical Indicator Analysis
While your charts don't show the indicators directly, we can infer their likely state based on the price action and standard settings.
1. Relative Strength Index (RSI - Typically 14-period):
· Likely Reading: On the Daily (1D) and 4H charts, the RSI is almost certainly in overbought territory (above 70, likely even above 80).
· Analysis: This confirms the market is overbought. The minor pullbacks on the 2H and 4H charts (shown by the small red candles) are likely causing the RSI to dip from extreme levels, but it remains elevated. This is a classic warning sign of a potential reversal or consolidation.
2. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD - Typically 12,26,9):
· Likely Reading: On all timeframes, the MACD is above its signal line and at or near extreme highs.
· Analysis: This supports the strong bullish momentum. However, on the shorter timeframes (2H, 4H), we should be watching for bearish divergence (price making equal or higher highs while the MACD makes lower highs). This would be a strong short-term sell signal. The current consolidation increases the probability of this divergence forming.
3. Ichimoku Kinko Hyo:
· Price vs. Cloud (Kumo): The price is ** dramatically above the Senkou Span (Cloud)** on the daily chart. This indicates an extremely strong bullish trend but also a massive extension from its mean, suggesting a pullback towards the cloud is a high probability.
· Tenkan-sen (Conversion Line) vs. Kijun-sen (Base Line): The Tenkan-sen is almost certainly far above the Kijun-sen, confirming the strong trend. A crossing below would be a strong short-term bearish signal.
· Future Cloud: The cloud is likely bullish (green) and thinning, suggesting underlying trend strength but potential for volatility.
4. Volume:
· Analysis: The COT report is a form of volume analysis. The ** surge in open interest (+49,148 contracts)** from the 09/02 report, driven by new speculator longs, represents a massive influx of volume and commitment. However, this often marks climactic buying, not a sustainable pace. In the price charts, the consolidation near the highs on declining volume would be a bearish sign, indicating a lack of new buyers at these levels.
Synthesis of All Factors
Factor Analysis Implication
Fundamental (NFP) Very Bullish. Weak data = weak USD, dovish Fed. Long-term trend is UP.
COT (Speculative Sentiment) Extremely Bullish (Overheated). Record net long positioning. High short-term risk of a sharp pullback.
Price Trend Bullish but Stalling. Consolidating at all-time highs. Indecision; potential exhaustion.
RSI Overbought on higher timeframes. Suggests a correction is due.
MACD Bullish but potential for bearish divergence. Momentum may be waning.
Ichimoku Price extremely extended from Cloud. Suggests a pullback is likely.
Volume (via COT) Climactic buying. Often marks a short-term peak.
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Trading Strategy for Today
Core Principle: The trend is still up, but the risk/reward for new long entries at the current price is very poor. The optimal strategy is to wait for a technical correction to buy into strength or prepare for a reversal signal.
Scenario 1: Wait for a Pullback to Buy (Highest Probability & Prudence)
· Idea: Use the overbought signals and Ichimoku analysis to anticipate a pullback to a stronger support zone.
· Entry Zone: $3,480 - $3,520. This area aligns with previous resistance (now support) and a potential pullback towards the rising Tenkan-sen or Kijun-sen on the 4H chart.
· Confirmation: Look for bullish reversal candlesticks (hammer, bullish engulfing) and an RSI pulling back towards 50 (but not oversold).
· Stop Loss: A daily close below $3,450.
· Target: A move back towards the highs at $3,580 - $3,600.
Scenario 2: Breakout Trade (Lower Probability, Higher Risk)
· Idea: If the bullish momentum ignores all overbought signals.
· Entry: A sustained 4H or daily close above $3,610.
· Confirmation: The MACD should make a new high (avoiding divergence) and volume should increase on the breakout.
· Stop Loss: Below $3,590.
· Target: $3,650 - $3,680. Use a trailing stop.
Scenario 3: Aggressive Fade (For Experienced Traders)
· Idea: Fade the extreme bullish sentiment using bearish divergence and overbought RSI.
· Entry: On a clear bearish divergence on the 4H MACD (price makes a new high, MACD makes a lower high) AND a rejection from the $3,590 - $3,600 resistance level.
· Stop Loss: A close above $3,610.
· Target: $3,520 - $3,540.
Key Risk Management Note:
· NFP Event Risk: The next NFP release is TODAY (Sep 09, 19:30 GMT). This will cause massive, unpredictable volatility.
· Action: DO NOT enter new positions before this release. The market's reaction to the news will dictate the next major direction. If you are in a position, strongly consider reducing size or hedging.
Summary Table for Action
Strategy Entry Stop Loss Target Confidence
Pullback Buy $3,480 - $3,520 < $3,450 $3,580 - $3,600 High
Breakout Buy $3,610 < $3,590 $3,650 - $3,680 Low
Aggressive Fade ~$3,595 + Divergence $3,610 $3,520 - $3,540 Medium
Final Conclusion: The technical indicators (RSI, MACD, Ichimoku) all align with the COT data to scream "Overbought!" The fundamental driver is strong, but the market needs to cool off. The best trade is no trade until after the NFP news or a pullback into support. Patience will be rewarded with a much better risk-to-reward entry.
XAUUSD/Gold 1H Buy Projection – 08.09.25🔎 Chart Analysis
Price Action
Current price: 3588.15
Support Zone (S1): Around 3575 – 3578
Resistance Zones:
R1 ≈ 3590
R2 ≈ 3600+
Projection shows a possible bounce from support → break R1 → move toward R2.
Indicators
Stochastic (5,3,3):
Current: %K 21.78, %D 31.90
Oversold region → “Tends to Buy” signal.
RSI (14):
Value: 58.55 (above 50)
Suggests short-term uptrend momentum.
Overall Projection
Market bias: Bullish (Buy Setup)
If price respects support at S1, probability is high for upside movement towards R1 → R2.
Risk: If support S1 breaks, downtrend continuation is possible.
✅ Summary (08.09.25):
Buy Bias on 1H timeframe.
Support: 3575 zone
Target 1: 3590 (R1)
Target 2: 3600 (R2)
Indicators confirm bullish momentum (RSI > 50, Stoch oversold).
Gold Marks New ATH at 3600 – Bulls Still in ControlGold closed last week on a very strong note, posting its highest daily and weekly close and also printing a new all-time high at 3600, which now stands as an important psychological resistance Level. The overall price action structure continues to favor the bulls, with no major signs of reversal visible on any time frame.
For this week, the weekly pivot at 3541 will be going to act as the first line of support, followed by the previous ATH at 3500 as the secondary and more critical level to hold. While some consolidation or pullback from current levels cannot be ruled out given the stretched rally and overbought conditions (daily,H4) these dips can be viewed as healthy rather than bearish. As long as gold holds above 3500 on a closing basis, the broader trend remains bullish, and any corrective moves are likely to attract buying interest.
In short, unless bears can force a decisive break below 3500 (Daily close or week), gold bullish momentum remains intact, with scope for continuation above 3600 once consolidation is done.
XAUUSD – Early Week Trading ScenarioXAUUSD – Early Week Trading Scenario
Hello Traders,
The Asian session opened the new week with mild fluctuations in gold, followed by a pullback into the major liquidity zone created during last week’s bullish wave.
At present, price is showing signs of breaking below the 3585 support. If a strong M15 candle closes under this level, it can be considered a short-term correction signal. In that case, a light sell position may be initiated, targeting the 3560 zone.
The 3560 level stands out as a reliable support, aligning with the ascending trendline. This makes it a key area for buying in line with the prevailing uptrend, with the potential for price to extend higher and even revisit its all-time highs. However, if price climbs back to retest the trendline, any short positions from that area should be approached cautiously and only with clear confirmation.
Another potential buy zone lies near 3516, where the market previously cleared the liquidity from the closest FVG.
Overall, gold is likely to require some corrective moves before continuing its broader trend. In particular, short trades should only be considered when the reversal structure is clearly validated.
This is my trading perspective for gold today. Please take it as a reference for your own strategies.
Gold Trading Strategy for 08th September 2025📊 Gold Trading Strategy (Intraday)
This is a price action–based plan for intraday traders. Please read carefully before applying it.
✅ Buy Setup (Long Position)
Condition to Enter: Buy above the high of the 1-hour candle (confirm that the candle closes bullish and price breaks above it).
Stop Loss (SL): Place your stop loss above $3,603 (protects you from false breakouts).
Targets:
🎯 First Target: $3,614
🎯 Second Target: $3,625
🎯 Third Target: $3,636
👉 Always book partial profits at the first target and move your SL to cost price to secure your trade.
✅ Sell Setup (Short Position)
Condition to Enter: Sell below the low of the 1-hour candle, but only if the price closes below $3,569 (this confirms bearish momentum).
Stop Loss (SL): Place your stop loss above $3,569 (keeps risk controlled).
Targets:
🎯 First Target: $3,559
🎯 Second Target: $3,549
🎯 Third Target: $3,539
👉 Always trail your stop loss after reaching the first target to protect your profits.
📝 Notes
Wait for candle close – Don’t jump into the trade before the hourly candle closes.
Risk management – Never risk more than 1–2% of your trading capital on a single trade.
Confirmation matters – Use volume, RSI, or trendline confirmation along with this setup if possible.
Be patient – Not every signal will trigger. Only trade when the conditions are met.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This trading plan is shared for educational purposes only. Trading in commodities like Gold ($XAU/USD) involves high risk due to price volatility. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own analysis or consult with a financial advisor before trading. The author is not responsible for any profit or loss arising from trades taken based on this information.
XAUUSD At Critical PRZ: Will Gold Reverse or Break to New Highs?Hello Traders And Investors
XAUUSD At Critical PRZ: Will Gold Reverse or Break to New Highs? 🔥”
The recent price action on Gold (XAUUSD) has reached a very critical level near $3,586 – $3,600, which aligns with a strong resistance zone. This area is marked as a Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ), where sellers may step back into the market.
🔍 Market Structure Breakdown:
Previous Liquidity Sweep
Price collected liquidity below the July lows before forming a Higher Low at the start of August.
This move gave the market strength to push higher, creating a clean bullish structure.
Strong Impulsive Rally
From mid-August onwards, gold showed a strong bullish impulse, breaking through minor resistance levels without much pullback.
However, such parabolic moves often lack sustainability, making them vulnerable to a healthy correction.
Resistance & PRZ Reaction
The current resistance zone has historically acted as a strong rejection level.
Price tapping into this zone suggests exhaustion in bullish momentum, increasing the probability of a short-term pullback.
🎯 Target Zones for Downside Move:
1st Target: $3,480 – $3,500
This area coincides with a previous demand block and will act as the first reaction point.
Final Target: $3,330 – $3,320 (Key Support)
If bearish momentum sustains, price could revisit this major support, completing the correction phase before potentially resuming the broader uptrend.
Gold Trading Strategy for Monday✅ After a continuous rally, gold faced resistance around 3599, with significant short-term selling pressure. The price has moved far from the MA20 (around 3547), creating a short-term deviation. Without continued volume support, there is a risk of a technical pullback. The MACD histogram is shrinking, and both DIF and DEA are flattening at high levels, indicating weakening bullish momentum. The KDJ is in the overbought zone (K > 80) and showing signs of topping out, suggesting an increased probability of a short-term correction.
✅ The 4-hour chart shows that gold’s upward momentum is weakening, with a higher likelihood of sideways consolidation or a minor pullback. Key support lies at 3568–3575, and if this level breaks, the next support to watch is 3540–3550.
🔴 Resistance: 3600-3605
🟢 Support: 3550-3560
✅ Trading Strategy Reference:
🔰 If the price rebounds but fails to break above 3600, consider light short positions with targets at 3570–3550.
🔰 If the price pulls back to 3560–3570 and stabilizes, consider scaling into long positions, targeting another breakout above 3600.
🔥Trading Reminder: Trading strategies are time-sensitive, and market conditions can change rapidly. Please adjust your trading plan based on real-time market conditions. If you have any questions or need one-on-one guidance, feel free to contact me🤝
Gold Rally at Its Peak – Correction on the Horizon?Gold Rally at Its Peak – Correction on the Horizon?
Gold (XAUUSD) Technical–Fundamental Market Report
Over the past weeks, gold has shown a significant transition in market structure. After a prolonged distribution and corrective phase through late July into mid-August, price action shifted decisively into a strong bullish cycle. The early downtrend was marked by repeated breaks of structure to the downside, reflecting selling pressure and controlled liquidity grabs.
From late August onward, gold transitioned into accumulation, where price consolidated, absorbed liquidity, and built momentum. This was followed by a clear breakout phase, marked by multiple bullish break-of-structure signals. The market demonstrated aggressive upward expansion, driven by momentum and strong order flow, suggesting institutional positioning.
Fundamentally, this aligns with the current macro backdrop: gold often gains strength when investors anticipate monetary policy easing, inflationary risks, or geopolitical tensions. The consistent bullish run reflects a flight-to-safety narrative, supported by capital inflows.
Currently, price action shows extended bullish movement nearing exhaustion, with signs of potential short-term corrective pressure. The dotted projection suggests a retracement phase could be expected after testing higher liquidity zones, a natural reaction to overextended momentum.
Elliott Wave Analysis XAUUSD – September 7, 2025
Momentum
• D1: Momentum is still declining → a corrective move may occur before turning bullish again.
• H4: Currently in the overbought zone → a main downward move is expected tomorrow.
• H1: About to enter the oversold zone → a short-term upward bounce may appear tomorrow morning.
Wave Structure
• D1 timeframe:
o Price is forming a 5-wave structure (i, ii, iii, iv, v) in black.
o Currently, wave iii (black) is in its final stage.
o Waves i, ii, iii were formed after a momentum cycle → the next corrective cycle will likely indicate where wave iv (black) will end.
• H4 timeframe:
o Price may be completing wave v (purple).
o Once wave v (purple) finishes → the market is expected to enter corrective wave iv (black).
• H1 timeframe:
o As in the previous plan, the ABC correction in blue looks like a 3-wave structure, but there is also the possibility of a Flat pattern forming.
o In a Flat scenario, price may break above the previous high and then reverse downward.
o Currently, price showed overlapping moves followed by a strong breakout → suggesting two possible scenarios:
Scenario 1:
o Wave v (purple) is unfolding, with price heading toward the wave v target.
o Two target zones: 3614 and 3678.
o In this case → avoid counter-trend trades, wait for corrective wave iv (black) to complete and then enter Buy positions in line with wave iii (black).
Scenario 2:
o A Flat structure is forming.
o Wait for wave C to complete wave iv (purple).
o H4 momentum supports this scenario (decline to oversold then reversal).
o Wave C targets: 3553 and 3530 → ideal Buy entry zone.
Trading Plan
1. Buy Zone 1: 3353 – 3350
o SL: 3340
o TP1: 3596
2. Buy Zone 2: 3532 – 3530
o SL: 3522
o TP1: 3552
XAU/USD Bullish Trade Setup Buy from POI Zone towards 3668TargetXAU/USD (Gold) – 1H Analysis
✅ Trend: The market is in a clear bullish trend with higher highs & higher lows. Price is trading above both EMA 70 (3,547) and EMA 200 (3,486), confirming strong upward momentum.
📌 Key Levels:
POI Buying Zone: 3,554 – 3,576 (strong support area)
Target Point: 3,668 – 3,669
Support Line: Still respected, adding confluence to the bullish setup.
📈 Strategies Applied:
Trend Following: Bullish as long as price stays above EMAs.
Support & Resistance: Buying zone aligns with strong support.
EMA Strategy: Price above EMAs = buy signal.
Price Action: Retest of POI zone before moving up.mm
🎯 Trade Idea:
Entry: Around 3,555 – 3,576 (buying zone)
Stop Loss: Below 3,547 (EMA 70 / zone invalidation)
Target: 3,668 – 3,670
⚡ Summary: Market remains bullish, correction into the POI zone is a good buying opportunity aiming for new highs.
Gold Targets $3,600 After Strong BreakoutAnalysis:
Gold (XAU/USD) continues its bullish rally after breaking above the buy zone near $3,440 and holding strong momentum. The market has recently made higher highs, with price consolidating slightly below the resistance zone.
Currently, gold is trading at $3,548, with the short-term target identified at $3,600. The chart suggests potential consolidation in the highlighted area before another upward push. The SMA (9) at $3,552 is acting as dynamic support, keeping the bullish bias intact.
If buyers maintain control, a clear breakout above $3,552 – $3,560 could confirm a move toward $3,600 – $3,604. However, if momentum weakens, support lies at $3,511 and $3,499, with a deeper pullback possible toward the $3,440 buy zone.
Overall, the sentiment remains bullish, and gold looks positioned to test the $3,600 psychological resistance in the near term.
Weekly Outlook: Big Bullish Move + Key US DataMarket View:
Gold (XAUUSD) finished the week with strong momentum after Nonfarm pushed price close to $3600/oz ATH. On the daily chart, the candle closed almost full body (only ~30% wick), showing no profit-taking yet. The weekly chart is also strongly bullish – confirming that buyers are in control. This signals more upside likely in the coming week and month.
Key US Events This Week:
Wed, Sep 10: Core PPI & PPI m/m → If higher than expected, USD may strengthen short-term, creating pressure on gold.
Thu, Sep 11: CPI (Core, m/m, y/y) + Jobless Claims → the most important release. Lower CPI + higher claims = bullish for gold. Higher CPI = hawkish Fed = pressure.
Fri, Sep 12: UoM Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations → could shift Fed outlook further.
👉 Fundamentals may bring volatility, but overall medium-term trend remains bullish.
Technical Outlook (H1 Chart):
After the Nonfarm breakout, gold is consolidating sideways. Levels to watch:
Support: 3574 – 3551 – 3530 – 3516
Resistance: 3600 – 3621 – 3633 – 3649 – 3669 – 3678
Trading Plan:
BUY bias (preferred):
Long on dips near 3574–3550
SL: below 3530
TP: 3600 → 3621 → 3633 → 3649 → 3669 → 3678
SELL scalp (alternative):
Only if 3530 breaks with strong CPI surprise → target 3516/3527
Summary:
✅ Gold stays in a strong uptrend on Daily & Weekly charts. Macro factors support more upside if inflation keeps easing.
👉 Watch 3592 (bullish trigger) and 3575 (bearish trigger) as the key decision levels.
Follow MMFLOW TRADING for daily plans and quick updates.
GIFT Nifty & Its Impact on Indian MarketsPart 1: Background & Origin of GIFT Nifty
What is GIFT City?
GIFT City (Gujarat International Finance Tec-City) is India’s first International Financial Services Centre (IFSC).
Located near Gandhinagar, Gujarat, it was conceptualized to create a world-class financial hub in India to compete with global centers like Singapore, Dubai, and Hong Kong.
GIFT City offers tax incentives, relaxed regulatory norms, and state-of-the-art infrastructure for global financial institutions to operate.
What is SGX Nifty?
The SGX Nifty was a derivative contract based on the Nifty 50 index, traded on the Singapore Exchange (SGX).
It allowed international investors to take exposure to Indian equities without registering in India.
For years, SGX Nifty acted as a barometer for Indian markets, especially because it traded during hours when Indian markets were closed.
Traders in India would often look at SGX Nifty early morning to predict the likely opening of the Indian stock market.
The Dispute & Transition
In 2018, NSE (National Stock Exchange of India) announced it would stop licensing its Nifty index to foreign exchanges like SGX.
The decision led to arbitration between NSE and SGX, as SGX Nifty had become very popular among global investors.
Finally, a compromise was reached: SGX Nifty contracts would be migrated to GIFT City under NSE IFSC.
On July 3, 2023, SGX Nifty officially rebranded as GIFT Nifty and trading began on NSE IFSC.
Part 2: Structure & Features of GIFT Nifty
Key Features
Underlying Index: Nifty 50 (India’s flagship index).
Contract Type: Futures contracts (similar to SGX Nifty).
Trading Venue: NSE International Exchange (NSE IX) at GIFT City IFSC.
Currency: Denominated in US Dollars instead of Indian Rupees.
Trading Hours: Nearly 21 hours (from 6:30 AM to 2:45 AM IST) — allowing overlap with Asian, European, and US markets.
Participants: International investors, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs), NRIs, and eligible domestic investors.
Types of GIFT Nifty Contracts
Currently, NSE IFSC offers futures contracts on:
GIFT Nifty 50
GIFT Nifty Bank
GIFT Nifty Financial Services
GIFT Nifty IT
This expands the scope beyond just the Nifty 50 index, giving investors wider access to Indian sectoral indices.
Why Dollar Denominated?
International investors prefer USD-denominated contracts as it eliminates INR currency risk.
It makes Indian markets more accessible globally without forcing traders to manage currency exposure.
Part 3: Importance of GIFT Nifty
1. A Gateway for Global Investors
Earlier, SGX Nifty allowed foreign investors to participate in Indian markets indirectly. With GIFT Nifty, India itself now provides that gateway, strengthening its own financial ecosystem.
2. Deepening Market Liquidity
By concentrating derivatives trading within India, NSE IFSC attracts liquidity that was earlier routed abroad.
This boosts India’s derivatives market depth, transparency, and volumes.
3. Enhancing India’s Global Financial Standing
Shifting trading from Singapore to India signals that India is ready to host global investors on its own platform.
This strengthens India’s ambition of making GIFT City a financial hub like Dubai or Singapore.
4. Longer Trading Hours
Indian stock exchanges (NSE & BSE) operate from 9:15 AM to 3:30 PM IST.
GIFT Nifty trades for 21 hours, giving almost round-the-clock access to Indian equity exposure.
This aligns India with global markets, reduces overnight risks, and improves price discovery.
5. Price Discovery & Market Sentiment
Earlier, SGX Nifty served as an indicator of Indian market openings. Now, GIFT Nifty performs that role.
With long trading hours, it reflects global sentiment on Indian equities more effectively.
Part 4: Impact of GIFT Nifty on Indian Markets
A. Impact on Indian Exchanges (NSE & BSE)
Positive: More visibility, control, and revenue for NSE as global trading activity comes under its umbrella.
Neutral/Negative: Indian retail traders may feel disconnected since contracts are in USD and primarily targeted at international investors.
B. Impact on Market Liquidity
Migration of volumes from SGX to GIFT increases liquidity within Indian jurisdiction.
Higher liquidity means tighter spreads, better efficiency, and more robust risk management for investors.
C. Impact on Global Investors
Easier access to Indian markets without worrying about Indian regulations.
Extended trading hours make Indian assets more attractive for hedging and speculative purposes.
Dollar-denominated contracts align with global trading practices.
D. Impact on Domestic Investors
Initially limited, since GIFT Nifty is mainly designed for FPIs and international traders.
However, over time, domestic institutions (like mutual funds and banks) may benefit by using it for hedging foreign flows.
E. Impact on Indian Rupee (INR)
Since contracts are in USD, demand for Indian equities could indirectly influence INR movements.
GIFT City also has potential to become a hub for INR trading in future.
F. Impact on India’s Financial Image
Positions India as a serious global financial player.
Increases foreign confidence in Indian regulatory and market structures.
Part 5: Comparison – GIFT Nifty vs SGX Nifty
Aspect SGX Nifty GIFT Nifty
Location Singapore Exchange NSE IFSC (GIFT City, India)
Currency USD USD
Trading Hours 16 hours 21 hours
Regulator MAS (Singapore) IFSCA (India)
Ownership of Revenues SGX NSE
Underlying Index Nifty 50 Nifty 50, Bank, IT, Financial Services
Role in Price Discovery Yes Yes (now the official one)
The shift essentially moves control and revenues from Singapore to India.
Part 6: Opportunities Created by GIFT Nifty
Boost for GIFT City – The success of GIFT Nifty can attract other asset classes like global bonds, currencies, and commodities.
Increased FPI Flows – Easier access encourages more foreign portfolio investment into India.
Derivatives Ecosystem Expansion – Potential to introduce options, ETFs, and structured products linked to Indian indices.
Cross-Border Collaboration – GIFT Nifty opens avenues for India to collaborate with global exchanges in other products.
Risk Management for Global Investors – Long trading hours provide effective hedging tools.
Part 7: Challenges & Concerns
Liquidity Migration – Will all volumes shift smoothly from SGX to GIFT Nifty? Some traders may prefer Singapore due to familiarity.
Regulatory Environment – Global investors need confidence in IFSCA’s regulatory robustness.
Dollar Contracts Disconnect – Indian retail traders may feel left out since contracts are not INR-based.
Competition from Other Hubs – Dubai, Singapore, and Hong Kong remain strong competitors as global finance centers.
Infrastructure Readiness – GIFT City must maintain world-class standards to handle high-frequency global trades.
Part 8: Long-Term Implications
Strengthening NSE’s Global Role
NSE may emerge as a global exchange platform beyond Indian borders.
Growth of GIFT City
Success of GIFT Nifty sets the tone for making GIFT City India’s Wall Street.
Integration with Global Finance
Longer trading hours and dollar-denomination bring Indian equities closer to global investors.
Increased FPI Confidence
Consistent performance of GIFT Nifty could increase foreign flows into India’s cash equity markets.
Policy Influence
If successful, it could encourage policymakers to replicate such models in bonds, currencies, and commodities.
Part 9: Case Study – First Year of GIFT Nifty
In its first year, GIFT Nifty volumes have been rising steadily.
According to exchange reports, daily average turnover crossed billions of dollars within months.
Many global institutional investors have already shifted positions from SGX.
This indicates strong acceptance and confidence in India’s financial infrastructure.
Conclusion
The launch of GIFT Nifty is a historic milestone in India’s journey toward becoming a global financial powerhouse. By bringing offshore trading of Indian equity derivatives back to Indian soil, it strengthens the domestic ecosystem, enhances liquidity, and improves price discovery.
For global investors, GIFT Nifty provides almost round-the-clock access to Indian markets in a familiar USD-denominated format. For India, it symbolizes financial sovereignty, global competitiveness, and the ambition of positioning GIFT City as an international financial hub.
While challenges remain—such as building liquidity, ensuring robust regulation, and competing with established hubs—GIFT Nifty has already made a significant impact on how the world interacts with Indian equities. Over the next decade, its success could pave the way for India’s deeper integration into global capital markets, making it a win-win for investors, exchanges, and the Indian economy alike.