Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD | July 22, 2025
🔍 Momentum Overview
• D1 timeframe: Momentum has entered the overbought zone, signaling a potential reversal within the next 1–2 sessions. That said, the current bullish leg may still extend — it’s important to wait for tomorrow’s D1 candle close for confirmation. Entering overbought territory is a warning that upside momentum is weakening.
• H4 timeframe: Momentum is currently declining. Unless a strong bullish candle closes above 3391 to trigger a reversal, the price is likely to continue moving sideways or downward today.
• H1 timeframe: There are signs of a bullish reversal. If the price holds above 3385 and posts a strong breakout candle above 3391, it could present a short-term buying opportunity.
🌀 Elliott Wave Structure Update
• Price is consolidating within the 3390 – 3402 range — a key zone to monitor closely.
• The 3380 level is a critical threshold, aligned with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement of Wave (3). A daily close below this level would raise the possibility that the move is part of a correction rather than Wave 4.
• A flat ABC correction is currently unfolding, with the 1.618 extension of Wave A already reached at 3385.
• If price breaks below 3360, it would overlap with the previous Wave 1, invalidating the current impulsive wave count. In that case, we should consider the potential continuation of a larger abcde triangle correction.
🔗 Momentum & Wave Structure Combined
• H1 is showing early signs of a bullish reversal, but H4 momentum remains bearish. Without a strong breakout candle above 3391, price is likely to drift sideways or lower until H4 reaches the oversold zone.
• Conservative approach: Wait for H4 to enter oversold territory before considering any long positions.
• The ideal buy setup would be a bullish reaction from the 3382 – 3380 zone.
📈 Trade Setup
• Buy Zone: 3382 – 3380
• Stop Loss: 3372
• Take Profit 1: 3402
• Take Profit 2: 3412
• Take Profit 3: 3428
