August 13 Gold AnalysisAugust 13 Gold Analysis
I. Intraday Market Trends and Key Drivers
- Gold Price Trend: Stable above $3,350 in the European session, regaining buying support after two consecutive days of pullback, leading to a short-term rebound.
- Key Catalysts:
1. US CPI Data: Headline inflation remained flat in July (2.7%), but core CPI rose to 3.1% (a five-month high). Market bets on the probability of a September rate cut rose to 93.4%, putting pressure on the US dollar and boosting gold.
2. Intensifying Policy Game:
- Trump pressured Powell to cut rates and threatened a lawsuit. Treasury Secretary Bensant advocated for a 50 basis point cut in September, and Bullard expressed his support.
- Disagreements emerged within the Federal Reserve: Barkin questioned the inflation-unemployment balance, while Schmid warned that tariffs would drive up inflation. Policy uncertainty amplified safe-haven demand.
3. Unexpected Disruptions: Anthony, the nominee for Director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, proposed suspending the release of the employment report, coupled with Fed Governor Milan's optimistic inflation stance, exacerbating market volatility.
II. Key Technical Signals and the Bull-Bear Game
- The volatile pattern remains unchanged: Gold prices are in a consolidation phase after retreating from the $3,400 high, with support above $3,300 holding firm.
- Bull-Bear Tipping Points:
- Support Fortress: $3,340 (H4 200-day moving average + high trading volume area). If this fails, the $3,300 mark is likely to fall.
- Breakout Path: If it holds $3,350 and breaks through $3,360 resistance, it will open the way to $3,380-3,400. Further breakthroughs could challenge the historical highs of $3,420-3,500.
- Short-term Momentum:
- Gold prices rose after the overnight CPI data, then fell to $3,330. Trump's attacks on Powell triggered a V-shaped reversal, demonstrating high policy sensitivity.
- Currently, the Asian and European sessions are experiencing strong volatility, with $3,340-3,350 forming the intraday bullish support level.
III. Trading Strategy and Risk Management Key Points
Intraday Trading Logic
> 📌 Core Strategy: European trading continues to fluctuate and favor the bulls. Focus on the effectiveness of a breakout above $3,360. Follow the momentum in the US market.
- Aggressive Strategy:
- At the current price of $3,353, try a light buy position (or add to your position if it pulls back to $3,348). Stop-loss below $3,340, target $3,360 → $3,378**.
- If it breaks above $3,360, chase long positions to target the $3,380-3,400 range.
- Conservative Strategy:
- Wait for gold to break through $3,360 with significant volume before retracing to follow up with a long position. Alternatively, go short if it breaks below $3,340 (target $3,320-3,300).
Trade cautiously and manage risk! Wish you good luck!
