7.10 Gold Analysis7.10 Gold Analysis
I. Fundamentals
(1). Escalating trade frictions boost safe-haven demand:
On July 9, the Trump administration imposed tariffs (20%-30%) on six countries including the Philippines and Brunei, and announced a 50% tariff on copper imports from August 1, sparking concerns about the global supply chain.
The EU is accelerating negotiations with the US (aiming to reach an agreement before August 1), but differences in automobile tariff quotas remain, and policy repetition continues to amplify market uncertainty.
Impact: Safe-haven funds flow into gold, and gold prices rebounded rapidly from the previous day's low of $3,282 to above $3,320.
(2) Fed policy differences suppress expectations of rate cuts:
The minutes of the June meeting showed that the Fed was divided into three factions: the mainstream supported rate cuts this year but excluded July; the hawks tended to stay put; and the doves advocated immediate action.
Trump pressured for rate cuts (saying that the interest rate was 3 percentage points too high), but strong employment data (June non-farm payrolls) made the Fed cautious, and the market expected the first rate cut in September to be the most likely.
Impact: The US dollar index remained stable near 97.4, limiting the upside of gold prices; the decline in US Treasury yields (10-year to 4.34%) provided some support
2. Technical patterns and key positions
Daily structure
Core resistance: 3330 (5-day/10-day/60-day moving averages densely intersecting area, short-term long-short watershed)
Core support: 3300 (May-June rising trend line support, long defense line)
K-line signal: Wednesday closed with a lower shadow positive line, fell to 3283 and then rebounded to regain 3300, confirming short-term stabilization, but it needs to break through 3330 to open up upside space.
Short-term momentum
Break through the 3296-3282 oscillation range, reaching a high of 3317, and continue the upward trend in the early trading, showing that the bulls are accumulating strength.
If it stabilizes above 3300, it is expected to continue the rebound and test 3330.
3. Long and short logic sorting
Bullish basis:
1. Technical repair completed: After the sharp drop on Wednesday, it quickly fell and rebounded, closing with a positive line to repair part of the decline, and the short-selling potential weakened.
2. Support effectiveness: The 3300 trend line support has been tested for two consecutive trading days (3282 on Tuesday and 3282 on Wednesday), forming a double bottom prototype.
3. Momentum continuation: The rise continued in the early trading, and breaking through the overnight high of 3317 can strengthen the confidence of bulls.
Bearish risk:
1. 3330 strong pressure has not been broken: the triple moving average pressure (5/10/60 days) needs to be broken through with large volume, otherwise it is easy to trigger a sell-off.
2. US dollar pressure: The high level of the US dollar limits the upward space of gold prices.
4. Specific operation strategy
Core idea: Buy on dips, short on key resistance areas
1. Long strategy:
Entry position: Buy after retracement to 3300-3305 (trend line support + neckline of the previous day)
Target: 3320→3330 (lightening area), break through 3330 to see 3345-3350
Stop loss: below 3295
2. Short strategy:
Trigger condition: The first touch of 3330 is under obvious pressure (long upper shadow/1-hour stagflation)
Target: 3315→3305
Stop loss: above 3335 (stop loss when breaking through the moving average concentration area)
3. Breakthrough follow-up strategy:
If the volume breaks through 3330, chase after 3320-3325, target 3345-3350
If 3300 is lost, short at 3305, target 3285-3282
Key reminder:
Focus on the attack and defense of 3300 support and 3330 resistance in the Asian and European sessions, and operate with a light position before the US data.
3345-3350 is a strong resistance area, and long positions can be actively reduced in this area.
V. Risk events
Waiting for the release of US unemployment data: If the data is lower than expected (showing strong employment), it may suppress the expectation of interest rate cuts and be bearish for gold.
Speech by Fed officials: Pay attention to whether the signal of "opposition to July rate cuts" is released (the minutes of the meeting show that most officials tend to wait and see).
Thank you for your attention, and I hope my analysis can help you.
