US30 trade ideas
Breakout in Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI)...Chart is self explanatory. Levels of breakout, possible up-moves (where stock may find resistances) and support (close below which, setup will be invalidated) are clearly defined.
Disclaimer: This is for demonstration and educational purpose only. This is not buying or selling recommendations. I am not SEBI registered. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any trade.
Q&A_ Is Nifty heading for a bear market?Namaste!
I have been tracking DJI (Dow Jones Industrial Average) for quite a while. The bear market is defined as 20% correction in benchmark indices from the all time highs.
SPX (S&P 500) has fell into bear market twice (2nd after retracement), it closed below 20% line on daily as well as weekly candles . But it did recovered from those levels until recently, it closed again, it is in a bear market now .
However, Dow Jones hasn't closed below 20% levels at the above mentioned period. This time, it has closed below 20% level on daily candle.
I will be 100% sure of a bear market if DJI closes below on Weekly candles.
If DJI fall into a bear market, there is a very highest probability our Nifty 50 will to. It can take Nifty to 14600 levels.
How to plan this bear market?
1. For people already invested:
Don't sell your current holdings to buy at cheap. It will be a add more opportunity. You can consider either investing 50% of remaining investing amount now, 50% at Nifty 15100 or 14600 levels or whole remaining capital at 15100 levels.
2. For people waiting for investment:
I would advice to invest 30% of the capital now and remaining 70% at Nifty 15100 or 14600 levels. These levels are drawn assuming Nifty will create the last swing low at 15100 level, and 14600 level is a psychological and a 20% level.
Will all the stocks in Nifty 50 fall at the same speed?
A: Nope. Overvalued blue-chip / large-cap stocks will fall more than those of (undervalued) fundamentally strong.
Mid cap and small cap will fall at greater speed after taking above points into consideration. So if you hold small and mid-cap, get ready to stomach more downside. BUT DO NOT SELL. . Warren Buffett doesn't sell and other notable investors I know advice the same.
Disclaimer: The analysis I have shared is based on my understanding and experience in the markets. This article must be assumed as a opinion only not a trading/investing call. Please do your analysis and/or consult your financial advisor before investing.
Q&A_ Is Dow Jones and global markets ready for a freefall_ 2?Namaste!
I have been pessimistic about the bull market since Oct 2022 when Dow Jones fell into bear market for the first-time (i.e. closed below 20% levels from all time highs).
S&P500 has been closing below 20% bear market level in June 2022, Sep 2022 and Dec 2022 respectively. (Please read earlier article of the same name which I posted on 7 Nov 2022).
There are mainly 3 reasons I strongly think that market have a pending correction of more than 30% from all time highs.
1. Fastest bear market recovery since decades: You know, bull markets and bear markets have some unique behavior which they follow very often. Bulls move price very slowly upwards. but bears move prices very very fast on the downside. What do you think, about this quick recovery of the bear market (year 2020 recovery). This isn't a behavior of the bull.
Well this has happened mainly due to following reasons:-
A. Lowering interest rates near zero by the US Fed to stimulate the economy, again.
B. They deposited dollars directly into the pockets of it's citizens. Money had to go somewhere. So, it (money) went in "spending" (resulting in profits numbers for corporations), "investments" (real estate, various assets and stock markets), etc. "Spending" fueled demand in the economy, creating the inflation (which is highest since decades) in many countries.
C. They printed around 33% dollars by issuing government bonds to US Fed (a way of introducing more dollars into the economy).
D. Most of this money doesn’t exactly go into circulation within the public and remains electronic. The US government technically owns these assets(stocks, etc)/treasuries and they can always sell them back to the banks when the current prices match those of pre-March 2020. Hence, the money was created as a way of making a buffer that allows the economy to absorb losses while it recovers (source: mediumdotcom).
The US government will eventually sell stocks in it's portfolio and other assets to the banks, investors, which will lead to Dow Jones falling.
2. Breakout in the interest rate cycle of US Federal Reserve rates (refer "https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate"). Interest rate has been kept "close to zero" since the sub-prime loan mortgage crisis in the year 2008-09. If the dollar in the market is very easily accessible due to very low interest rates (like borrowing from banks to buy a car, home, spend on unnecessary things, etc), it stimulates the economy by increasing demand .
It's a good step for the growth of Economy, BUT it creates inflation (sometimes out of control, sooner or later), since everybody is demanding the limited goods or services by borrowing from the banks.
Central banks come here, and increase the interest rates. Now, since the interest rate is higher, people will have to cut the spending (mortgage loan payments, credit payments, etc) and immediately stop borrowing more.
The inflation is around 4 decades high in US, and couple of decades high in UK, India, Etc. To counter this, central banks will keep increasing interest rates to withdraw "easy dollars" from the market.
Concluding, US Fed interest rate above 5.5% may cause the next bear market.
3. Double-top pattern (in the making):-
The black horizontal line indicates a 20% (bear market) level. As you can see in the charts, it has created a bull flag pattern. Breakout above the pattern can take the index to 36450 or test the all time highs. The market need some levels (or history) to take the next decision. Market will form a double top pattern before falling. Every trader whether retail or institutional, is a human. So, we need some levels (based on history and facts) to guide us for the future step. That's why Double top or double bottom pattern works so nicely.
What can happen next? Well, the market can breakout of the bull flag (& symmetrical triangle) pattern to reach 36450 levels. The person (traders as well as investors) who were in a hindsight because of no visible top, will try to book profits/exit the market near that level.
Concluding, Dow Jones is in a medium term uptrend till that level.
Disclaimer: The above article is based on my understanding and experience in the markets. Please do your own analysis and/or consult your financial advisor before investing or trading. The sailing in the markets without knowledge and risk apatite could be hazardous for who don't know swimming or without life jackets.
Q&A_ Is Dow Jones and global markets ready for a freefall?Namaste!
US Markets substantially affect global market and their indices. There are two main indices which I track most often. DJI (Dow Jones) and SPX (S&P 500).
I expect it to be in a downfall in the coming weeks/months.
I follow a rule of thumb for a reversal (respecting support or resistance) is that it must close below low of the resistance testing candle within the next 3 candles.
My understanding says, "there is a >60% probability of prices moving in the candles closing direction if the prices consolidate". Consolidation can happen near the resistance levels. So, it means there is a <40% probability of reversing (respecting resistance) if the prices consolidate. The logic is very simple. If the sellers were powerful enough, the price will fall quickly, whereas consolidation indicates their unwillingness to sell or more buying pressure than selling at the level.
So, the 02 Nov candle closed below the level, hence the selling pressure is strong here meaning more probably price will fall. It is my opinion because I said this happens 60% of the time. This could be that 40% when I am wrong.
Disclaimer: The above written article is based on my understanding and experience in the markets. Please do your own analysis and/or consult your financial advisor before investing or trading.
Dow jones industrial chart studyDow jones around 37600
240 mins time frame
Ascending parallel channel breakdown
big fat bearish candle formation on breakdown of channel structure..
now till the high is not crossed and sustained,,
index have possibility to retrace by 50-61% of last furious rally
and note one thing retracement will be sharp
till it below high levels view remains valid
DOW approaching 37180 or 37708Based on techinical analysis:Support and resistance combining with Yearly pivots.
After a strong bullish rally from yearly CPR (32806 - 33033), it is able to break and sustain above YH3 35427 (Yearly camariila 3rd layer pivot).
Before the end the year it can see upside:
1. YR1 37180(yearly floor pivot resistance)
2.YH4 37708(yearly Camariila 4th layer pivot)
Waterfall comming soon on Dow jones huge fall On Our Harmonic pattern indicator based trade setup take trade as explained below :-
Early trades Buy or sell below/ above 23.6 %, safe trades buy or sell above / below 41% , after taking trade next upside or downside levels will be target ,
When reverse buy or sell signal appear then book profit on Target or trail SL to 23.6 % If trailing SL hit then early trade can be taken above or below 23.6 and safe trade can b taken above/ below 41% ..
Please note:-
It's working on news based and volitile market very well so exit if SL hit
Dow Jones Industrial Averageoverview of the Dow Jones & Fed meeting.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, often referred to as the DJIA or Dow 30, is a stock market index that monitors the performance of 30 large, publicly traded blue-chip companies listed on both the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and Nasdaq. Originally formulated in 1896 by Charles Dow and Edward Jones, this index serves as a pivotal benchmark for assessing the overall health of the United States economy,
Fed meeting trigger a new all-time high for the Dow Jones Industrial Average:
Highlights of meeting-
1. The Federal Reserve maintained unchanged interest rates for the third consecutive meeting.
2. The US Federal Reserve revised its growth and GDP estimate upward, indicating a more
optimistic view of the economy's expansion potential.
3. Federal Reserve officials anticipate a reduction in rates by 75 basis points in the upcoming
year.
Impact of Fed meeting.
1. Dow Jones made a new all-time high.
2. Decline in the dollor index .
3. Sharp fall in US 10 year paper from 4.20% to 3.94% .
4. Strong buying in Bullions (Gold & Silver) .
5. Buying in base metals.
DISCLAIMER - All analyses are for educational purposes. it is not trading or investment advice.
US 30 - At Crucial levelThe index has been traveling in a rising channel formation for the last year. This time it reaches the top edge of the channel. If doesn't sustain the above, a downward journey is possible.
We just see our risk-reward. Keeping a stop-loss of around 36400 on a closing basis for two days. or according to one's risk management. target seems 35700 or more.
The setup fails if sustained above the channel.
This is only for learning and sharing purposes, not trading advice in any form.
All the best.
US30 LONGUS30 is overall in a uptrend . It is currently sideways on 1hr tf . We can plan a long trade after the break of current one hour range targeting 36540.
Can see bullish after 34700The Dow Jones Industrial Average(DJIA) is a price-weighted average of 30 blue-chip prominent companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States and these stocks are generally the leaders in their industry.
US30 - weeklyFor the Dow jones industrial average November had been a great month where we saw a rally from 32600 level, now finally the price has reached near the zone of 36600 to 37000 which is a resistance for the price, also the price is extended without any corrections, so we can expect a fall from this zone. This is not a financial advice, do your own research before placing any trades.
2 Sharks at Swap FL Two sharks at swap FL (RTM) with trendline resistance confluence. lets see how it react
DJI Intraday Prediction Levels for 29 Nov 2023DJI Intraday Prediction Levels for 29 Nov 2023
The chart indicates 15 min time frame. These Levels act as Support or Resistance according to price. They are strictly for Intraday Trading only. Execution only after break and close above the Resistance zone or below the Support zone.
Major Resistances- 35495,35555,35610,35640,35703,35780,35860,….
Major Supports-35350,35280,35230,35175,35115,35065,3500,…
These levels act as support and resistance. You have to trade according to level breakout or breakdown. First target is immediate next level. When first target is achieved go for the next one and so on.
If You are a new trader then just watch ( No Trade) these levels for some days.
Happy trading.
Disclaimer:
I am not a SEBI Registered Analyst. Anything posted here is my own analysis and views. This is created for educational purposes only. Always consult your Financial Advisor before taking any decision or trade.
DJI "At support level"TVC:DJI at improtant support level 32806-33033
After getting resistance from Yearly camarilla H3 ( 3rd resistance reversal level of Camarilla Equation ) represented by YH3 on chart ,now TVC:DJI is trading at Yearly Central pivot Range (32806-33034)
If get a weekly close below 32806 can see further downside toward 31450 (next swing low) and YL3 30867 , but if get an weekly close above 33050 can see YH3 35425 (high of july 2023) .
Suppot and resistance levels used for analysis is Yearly Camarilla Reversal levels (3rd level of reversals) and Yearly central pivot range of 2023.
5th Supercycle expansionSince bottom to bottom duration of bull markets from 1942 is almost same , this can be a case of expansion of 3rd cycle wave of 5th Supercycle.
US30 LONGUs30 is bullish right now and is approaching ATH. we can plan a long trade above the current resistance level after a daily candle close above resistance targeting next level.
Dow Jones US 30 near strong resistance area On Our Harmonic pattern indicator based trade setup take trade as explained below :-
Early trades Buy or sell below/ above 23.6 %, safe trades buy or sell above / below 41% , after taking trade next upside or downside levels will be target ,
When reverse buy or sell signal appear then book profit on Target or trail SL to 23.6 % If trailing SL hit then early trade can be taken above or below 23.6 and safe trade can b taken above/ below 41% ..
Please note:-
It's working on news based and volitile market very well so exit if SL hit
A good rally coming soonAs per the price pattern the trend is looking very strong and very soon we can expect a good bull trend again above 750+ levels.
DJ on the way to new highs soon.
Have a great trading year ahead.
US30 Buy Trade Unveiled Through Technical AnalysisDescription:
Embark on a lucrative journey with our latest Forex trade opportunity, a compelling Buy Trade on the US30 index, meticulously crafted through comprehensive technical analysis. The US30, often referred to as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, represents a basket of 30 major US companies, making it a prime target for astute traders seeking substantial returns.
Technical Analysis Highlights:
Bullish Trend Formation:
Our technical analysis indicates a robust formation of a bullish trend on the US30 chart. Multiple indicators, including moving averages and trendlines, align harmoniously to signal a favorable upward trajectory.
Support and Resistance Levels:
Crucial support levels have been identified, showcasing a strong foundation for potential price bounces. Additionally, resistance levels have been breached, indicating a bullish sentiment prevailing in the market.
Relative Strength Index (RSI) Confirmation:
The RSI, a key momentum indicator, has provided a clear confirmation of the Buy opportunity. It reflects the strength of the current trend, affirming the positive momentum in the US30 index.
Fibonacci Retracement Analysis:
A meticulous Fibonacci retracement analysis has revealed strategic entry points, allowing traders to capitalize on price corrections within the broader uptrend. This tool further solidifies the viability of the proposed Buy Trade.
Candlestick Patterns:
Detailed examination of candlestick patterns has uncovered significant bullish formations, providing additional confirmation of the potential upward movement in the US30 index.
Forex Pip Target Projection:
With all indicators aligning in favor of a bullish scenario, our Forex pip target projection for the US30 Buy Trade is set at an ambitious yet realistic level. Traders can anticipate a substantial number of pips, creating a promising opportunity for profit maximization.
Risk Management Strategies:
As with any trade, risk management is paramount. Our analysis incorporates recommended stop-loss levels to mitigate potential downsides. Traders are encouraged to implement prudent risk management strategies to safeguard their investments.
Seize the moment and position yourself for success in the Forex market with this US30 Buy Trade opportunity. Stay ahead of the curve, make informed decisions, and let the power of technical analysis guide you towards financial prosperity. Happy trading!
DOW JONES AS we can see price is making Higher High (HH) & Lower Low (LL)
AND came and tested the trend line multiple times
and ones the Price sustain below the trend line
then it will be a good rising wedge pattern
also from last two days brent oil has been risen up
so is that perfect timing to short dow jones
#PRICEACTION
Dow Jones view for 21/11/2023-
Expected to have completed wave 5 formation and the entire impulsive rally from the low of 32332 on oct 28 is complete and expecting a 3 swing correction against this rally. So expecting a decline.
