Gold Breaks Key Support Zone — Bearish Momentum Builds Below $4,Analysis:
The XAU/USD (Gold vs. USD) 45-minute chart shows a clear breakdown below the established support zone, indicating a shift in market sentiment from consolidation to bearish momentum.
The support zone around $4,050 – $4,000 had previously held multiple times, acting as a strong demand area.
The recent breakout below this zone confirms a potential trend continuation to the downside.
Price action suggests a bearish pattern with lower highs and lower lows forming before the breakout.
A retest of the broken support (now resistance) may occur before the next leg lower.
The next major target lies near $3,900 – $3,850, aligning with the projected measured move.
Technical Outlook:
If gold fails to reclaim the $4,050 level, further downside pressure remains likely. However, a close back above this level could invalidate the bearish breakout and signal a possible false break.
Trade ideas
GOLD (XAU/USD): SHORT OPPORTUNITY — RIDING THE FINAL BEAR LEG!1. MACRO VIEW: THE FED DECISION & MARKET TENSION
The Gold market is currently caught in a tug-of-war:
Downside Pressure (USD): Positive developments in the US-China trade talks are easing global risk concerns, which often reduces demand for safe-haven Gold.
Upside Support (Gold): Traders are fully pricing in a 25bps Fed rate cut on Wednesday, putting downward pressure on the US Dollar (which is supportive of Gold). Geopolitical tensions (Russia-US) add further safe-haven appeal.
Key Takeaway: While USD weakness is supportive, our Technicals strongly suggest a corrective move needs to conclude first. The FOMC decision is the ultimate game-changer.
2. TECHNICALS: STRUCTURE CONFIRMS THE BEARISH BIAS
Trend Shift: Gold’s strong previous rally has ended. The structure has been clearly broken, confirming a Bearish Shift for the short-term trend.
Expected Move: We are looking for a classic technical pullback (Retest) to the newly formed resistance zone. Following this retest, we expect sellers to push the price down to complete the correction.
3. 💡 TRADE STRATEGY (THE SHORT SETUP)
We are positioning for a SELL (SHORT) trade, anticipating the end of the corrective phase:
Ideal Entry Zone (Entry): 3,949.849 (Retesting the previous major Support, now acting as Resistance)
Take Profit (TP1): 3,929.793
Take Profit (TP2): 3,878.287 – 3,811.333 (The Major Demand Zone Target below)
Stop Loss (SL): Above 3,949.849 (Placed above the confirmed resistance)
⚠️ Important Note: The FED rate decision on Wednesday guarantees high volatility. Trade cautiously and ALWAYS prioritize risk management!
What is your view on Gold's bottom? Share your thoughts below! 👇
#Gold #XAUUSD #FOMC #TradePlan
LiamTrading - XAUUSD: SCENARIO AHEAD OF FOMCLiamTrading - XAUUSD: SCENARIO AHEAD OF FOMC - The $3840 Mark Awaits a Bottom Catch Reaction Wave
Hello trading community,
The Gold market is exhibiting a strong and sustainable downtrend. We are witnessing a crash after the price broke through key support zones. With the upcoming FOMC event, our strategy is to seek Buy opportunities at deep liquidity zones and continue to Sell when the price recovers to retest the broken trend.
📰 MACRO ANALYSIS & CASH FLOW CONTEXT
Gold is currently under dual pressure:
Bearish Pressure 🔴: Optimism about the US-China trade progress has significantly weakened the demand for Gold, traditionally a safe-haven commodity. Spot Gold prices have fallen below $3950, hitting a three-week low, down about 0.78% on the day (28/10).
Short-term Support 🟢: Bets on the possibility of Fed rate cuts continue to weaken the US Dollar (USD), which is the only factor that could potentially support this precious metal.
Conclusion: This tug-of-war makes bottom identification challenging. The bearish scenario remains the top priority.
📊 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: THE DOWNWARD WAVE CONTINUES
Based on the H4 chart (image_5fa7fa.png):
Current Trend: The price has successfully broken the key liquidity support zone near $3950 and is continuing its downward momentum.
Current Fibonacci Level: The price is touching and reacting at the 1.618 Fibonacci level (around $3950).
Next Target: The next target for Gold will be the 2.618 Fibonacci area (around $3840), which is a large liquidity zone expected to see strong reactions.
Main Strategy: We focus on two scenarios: Catching the bottom reaction at 3840 and continuing to Sell when the price rebounds.
🎯 DETAILED TRADING PLAN (ACTION PLAN)
We have two detailed scenarios based on the current price level:
🟢 BUY Reversal Scenario
We wait for the price to hit the deep liquidity bottom at 3840 to execute a buy order with the expectation of a technical recovery.
Entry Zone: 3840
Stop Loss (SL): 3832 (tight SL)
Take Profit Targets (TP): TP1: $3872 | TP2: $3898 | TP3: $3925 | TP4: $3950
🔴 SELL Retest Scenario
If Gold recovers without breaking the downtrend structure:
Entry Zone: Watch for a Sell retest at $4091
Stop Loss (SL): $4099
Take Profit Targets (TP): TP1: $4065 | TP2: $4033 | TP3: $4004 | TP4: $3965
SUMMARY & DISCIPLINE (Steven's Note)
Gold is in a strong decline ahead of the FOMC, with significant volatility expected. Capturing deep Fibonacci and Liquidity zones is key.
Note: Always adhere to the set Stop Loss. Capital management is the top priority, risking only 1-2% of the account per trade.
Wishing traders a successful and disciplined new trading week!
Gold as said on Friday until 4160 not break sell on rise Gold sell on rise recommended until 4160 not break ,
Still no buy signals sell on rise will continue
How My Harmonic pattern projection Indicator work is explained below :
Recent High or Low :
D-0% is our recent low or high
Profit booking zone ( Early / Risky entry) : D 13.2% -D 16.1 % is
range if break them profit booking start on uptrend or downtrend but only profit booking, trend not changed
SL reversal zone (Safe entry ) : SL 23.1% and SL 25.5% is reversal zone if break then trend reverse and we can take reverse trade
Target : T1, T2, T3, T4 and .
Are our Target zone
Any Upside or downside level will activate only if break 1st level then 2nd will be active if break 2nd then 3rd will be active.
Total we have 7 important level which are support and resistance area
Until , 16% not break uptrend will continue if break then profit booking will start.
If break 25% then fresh downtrend will start then T1, T2,T3 will activate
1,3,5,10,15,20 minutes are short term levels.
30 minutes 60 minutes , 2 hours,3 hours, ... 1 day and 1 week chart positional and long term levels
Risk-On Rally Threatens Gold: Eyes on Critical $4,000 LevelGold is sliding toward the $4,000 support level as improving US-China trade deal sentiment reduces demand for safe havens.
What’s Driving the Drop:
Risk-On Shift after upbeat trade comments from Washington.
Bearish Setup as price fails to reclaim broken support.
Key Levels:
Support: $4,000. A breakdown could send prices toward $3,945.
Resistance: $4,150–$4,185 for bulls to regain control.
Bottom line: Gold is under pressure, and a move below $4,000 may trigger steeper losses.
Dual-phase trading — shorting the drop, then switching to long Gold is currently trading near $4,040, and my short-term outlook is bearish, followed by a strong bullish reversal in the coming sessions.
I expect prices to decline first toward the $3,800–$3,750 zone, which aligns with key support and previous demand levels. This correction phase would complete a healthy market reset before a potential major rally begins.
Once price stabilizes around $3,800, I anticipate a sharp reversal and breakout move toward $4,200+, possibly extending higher if momentum builds.
📊 My Plan:
Bias: Bearish first → then Bullish
Short-Term Target: $3,800–$3,750
Reversal Zone: Accumulate longs near $3,800
Upside Target: $4,200+
Invalidation: Below $3,740 (on 4H closing)
This setup favors patience and dual-phase trading — shorting the drop, then switching to long for the rebound.
gold spot update at early momentum gold spot trading very high volatile and now facing strong hurdle 4065--85$ if mkt hold blw than soon 4008$---3965$ in near terms yes last low 4003$ looks some barrier.where can mkt reversal for buyer trap .
trading idea---- gold spot can selll on rise with small sl 4065 or let see tgt 4008--3965$++
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD (October 27, 2025)
🔹 Momentum
• D1 Timeframe:
D1 momentum remains clustered, suggesting that a bullish reversal could occur at any time. However, since momentum has not yet separated clearly, short-term downside pressure still exists.
• H4 Timeframe:
H4 momentum is currently declining, meaning that the downtrend could continue. We need to wait for H4 momentum to reach the oversold area and observe the market’s reaction there to determine whether the current drop is complete.
• H1 Timeframe:
H1 momentum is rising slightly, indicating the potential for a short-term rebound. However, since H4 is still in a down phase, any upward movement could face resistance near the 4098 level.
________________________________________
🔹 Wave Structure
• D1 Timeframe:
Price is currently moving sideways while D1 momentum remains stuck together, signaling a possible upcoming 5-day rally once D1 momentum turns upward into the overbought zone.
o If price fails to break above wave (3) yellow, this move is likely a wave (4) yellow correction.
o Conversely, if price breaks above wave (3) yellow, the current correction may only be a minor wave within wave (3) yellow.
________________________________________
🔹 Two Main Scenarios
1️⃣ Bullish Scenario (WXY blue completed):
If the WXY blue corrective structure has finished, the market may start a new wave (5) purple uptrend.
In this case:
• As H4 momentum moves into the oversold area, price should not fall deeply toward 4004.
• A sharp and decisive rebound from that zone would confirm this bullish scenario.
2️⃣ Bearish Scenario (Correction still in progress):
If the correction is not yet complete, the H4 decline could continue:
• Price might break below 4004, or at least retest it.
• If that happens, the downtrend could extend toward 3953 or 3927.
________________________________________
🔹 H1 Structure – Triangle Formation
On the H1 chart, price is consolidating within a contracting triangle, suggesting sideways accumulation with two possible interpretations:
• Scenario 1:
The triangle represents wave X of the WXY black structure.
When H4 momentum reaches the oversold zone and price holds above 4004, we may see an impulsive breakout toward the previous high at 4381, completing a flat correction of wave (4) yellow (D1).
• Scenario 2:
The triangle is wave (4) of wave Y blue, meaning that once completed, price could decline further toward 3953 or 3927 to finish wave Y. After that, a more stable upward wave is expected.
________________________________________
🔹 Trading Plan
Currently, price remains inside the triangle pattern:
• For experienced traders:
Wait for a breakout of either side of the triangle for direct entry.
• For more conservative traders:
Wait for Buy opportunities near strong support below.
🎯 Buy Zone: 3930 – 3927
🛑 Stop Loss: 3917
🎯 TP1: 4004
👉 If price breaks above 4149, we can look for Buy entries upon breakout, expecting an extended upward move toward 4268 or higher.
XAUUSD Analysis - Levels and Pridiction#Gold (XAU/USD) Technical Analysis - October 27, 2025
Current Market Status: Retracement on Higher Time Frame,
Lower Timeframe Bearish Breakdown⚠️
Gold is trading at 4,033.67, having broken down from the previous #consolidation zone. The market has violated key support levels and is now showing clear bearish momentum with multiple technical confirmations.
Critical Technical Developments:
1️⃣ Triangle Pattern Breakdown (1H Chart)
The 1-hour chart reveals a confirmed triangle #pattern breakout to the downside. After breaking below the triangle support, price attempted a retest of the breakdown level around 4,093-4,144 but was rejected, confirming the pattern's validity. This is a classic bearish continuation signal.
2️⃣ Demand Zone Invalidation
A crucial demand level that previously held multiple tests has now been completely invalidated. The chart explicitly notes: "Demand Level to be invalidated to move the Price Further Down" - this condition has been met, opening the path for deeper downside movement.
3️⃣ Minor Trend Shift Level Breach
Price has broken below the **Minor Trend Shift Level** at approximately 4,093, confirming a shift from bullish to bearish short-term structure. This level now acts as resistance.
Target Zones (High Probability):
🎯 Immediate Targets:
- 3,945 - Next support cluster (current proximity)
- 3,845 - 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level (PRIMARY TARGET)
- 3,719 - 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (EXTENDED TARGET)
The Fibonacci levels in green boxes, are the key magnetic zones for price action.
📉 Bearish Continuation (70% Probability)
Price continues lower toward 3,845, potentially extending to 3,719 if selling pressure intensifies. This move would represent a healthy correction within the broader uptrend from the yearly lows.
📈 Bullish Reversal (30% Probability)
Requires reclaiming 4,144 with strong momentum AND holding above it on daily timeframe. Only then would the bearish structure be invalidated.
Conclusion:
Gold remains in a confirmed downtrend on lower timeframes with clear downside targets visible. The invalidation of demand zones and triangle breakdown provide strong bearish confirmation. Traders should focus on the 3,845-3,719 zone as the primary area of interest for potential reversal setups. Until price reclaims 4,150+, the path of least resistance remains **DOWN**.
Risk Management: Use proper position sizing as volatility remains elevated. The 3,845 level will be crucial - watch for buyer reaction there.
GOLD (XAU/USD): THE FED AND THE FINAL DIP – GET READY TO SHORT1. MACRO SCENARIO: KYA HO RAHA HAI?
Pull Factor (For Sellers): The US-China deal framework is good news, reducing those 100% tariff fears. This is putting some halki halki (slight) pressure on Gold.
Push Factor (For Buyers): CPI figures are weak (3% inflation), which pakka (surely) means the Fed will cut rates soon. Plus, the Russia-Ukraine jhamela (trouble) is a serious safe-haven booster.
The Main Event: The FOMC decision this Wednesday is the baap (father/boss) of all events. This will decide the long-term rasta (path) for Gold.
2. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: STRUCTURE KA RAAZ (Secret of the Structure)
Current Scene: Gold had a solid run, but now it's in a big sydeway correction. The main price trend has been broken, confirming that the immediate sentiment is bearish. Zyada (More) selling pressure is expected.
Expected Plan: Gold has likely finished its upward natak (drama) and is ready for the final, sharp dip to complete this correction phase.
The Target (Magnet): The critical Value Gap on the Daily chart (around $3,880 – $3,920) is the strongest magnet. Pakka (Definitely), the price is heading here before taking a u-turn.
ENTRY WAITING: We might see a small comeback (retest) towards the broken structure area before the big fall starts. Pura dhyan udhar hi rakhna (Keep full attention there only).
3. 💡 TRADING STRATEGY (SHORT SIDE)
We are focusing on a SHORT trade for this final correctional wave:
Best Entry Zone: $4,080 – $4,100 (Retest of the broken zone).
Booking Profit (TP1): $3,970 (Nearest Demand Zone).
Booking Profit (TP2): $3,880 (The final target at the major Daily Value Gap).
Stop Loss (SL): $4,135 (Above the main Supply Zone, for safety).
A Serious Note: Please keep your Stop Loss tight before the FOMC on Wednesday. Mazaak nahi (No joke)! This short could be the last dance before a long-term rally!
Where do you think Gold will find asra (shelter/support)? Drop your comments below!
#Gold #XAUUSD #FOMC #Trading #TradePlan
XAUUSD Early Week: SELL Wave From FVG/Fibo 0.382 Resistance ZoneXAUUSD Early Week: SELL Wave From FVG/Fibo 0.382 Resistance Zone 🎯
Hello everyone, Steven Trading is back with the early week Gold analysis!
The market is clearly showing selling pressure after a strong rejection from the peak. Technical analysis on the H4 frame confirms that the downtrend is still dominant. We will focus on seeking SELL opportunities when the price recovers to the strong supply zone.
1. 📊 In-Depth Technical Analysis (H4 Technical Analysis)
Main Trend (Bearish Structure): The Bearish structure on H4 has been clearly established.
Volume Sign: The trading volume (Volume Profile) indicates the accumulation of Sellers at high price zones, reinforcing the search for SELL opportunities.
Ideal SELL Zone (High-Prob Zone): Gold tends to retest the important Resistance zone around $4235 - 4237. This is an extremely important technical convergence point:
FVG (Fair Value Gap): The price imbalance zone acts as a magnet.
Fibonacci 0.382: The zone provides high-quality SELL signals.
2. 📰 Macro Context (Context)
The Gold market is being influenced by two streams of information:
Short-Term Downward Pressure 📉: Optimism about US-China trade and the market's focus on the upcoming FOMC meeting have strengthened the USD, creating downward pressure on Gold. The psychological mark of $4200 is key.
Long-Term Support 📈: Global Central Banks are still buying Gold in record volumes, creating a solid price foundation, preventing prices from falling too deeply in the long term.
3. 🎯 Detailed Trading Plan (Action Plan)
The current range is quite narrow. We prioritise trading according to the downtrend.
🔴 Main SELL Scenario (Trend-following priority)
We wait for the price to recover to the supply zone to execute a Sell order.
Entry Zone: $4235 - 4237
Stop Loss (SL): $4243 (Set a tight SL for risk management)
Profit Targets (TP):
TP1: $4212
TP2: $4200
TP3: $4177
TP4: $4145
🟢 Counter BUY Scenario (Higher risk - Defensive)
This scenario is activated if the price drops deeply into the strong Liquidity zone.
Entry Zone: $3955 - 3958
Stop Loss: $3950
Profit Targets (TP):
TP1: $3975
TP2: $3998
TP3: $4025
TP4: $4060
4. 🧠 Notes and Discipline (Steven's Note)
Discipline is number 1: Always adhere to the set Stop Loss. If the market goes against the plan, we accept the predetermined small risk.
Capital Management: Only trade with a risk volume of 1-2% of the account per order.
Psychology: No FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) or trying to "revenge" the market. Waiting is a trading skill.
Do you agree with this Gold strategy? Please Like 👍 and Follow 🔔 to not miss the next analyses!
XAU/USD – 15-Minute Timeframe Analysis (Short Bias)Market Overview
Following the latest round of China–U.S. trade negotiations, market sentiment has shifted toward a more risk-on environment, reducing demand for safe-haven assets such as gold. As optimism surrounding the talks strengthens the U.S. dollar, gold prices have continued to decline during the Asian and early European sessions.
Technical Outlook
On the 15-minute timeframe, XAU/USD maintains a clear short-term bearish structure, characterized by consecutive lower highs and lower lows. The pair is currently trading below key moving averages, reinforcing the prevailing downward momentum.
A potential retracement toward intraday resistance could present a favorable opportunity for short positions, provided that bearish price action confirms rejection at that level.
Key Resistance: 2360 – 2365 zone (previous support turned resistance)
Immediate Support: 2348 – 2350 zone
Extended Support Target: 2338 – 2340
Breakout Setup on Gold (XAUUSD) — Upside Move ExpectedPrice action is consolidating within a descending channel on the 30-minute timeframe. A breakout above the descending trendline has formed, suggesting potential bullish momentum. The current support zone is around the 4070 level, aligning with the lower trendline of the structure.
Technical View:
Pattern: Descending channel breakout
Entry zone: 4070–4080 (post retest)
Target zone: 4120 resistance area (previous structure high and supply zone)
Stop loss: Below 4040 trendline. support
This setup favors a long position with a favorable risk-reward ratio. A clean break and hold above 4080 increases the probability of a push toward 4120. A failure to hold the retest would invalidate the setup.
[XAUUSD] New Week Scenario: Accumulation Awaiting Drop New Week Scenario: Accumulation Awaiting Drop - Watch for Selling at Liquidity Zone $4195
Hello traders community,
The new week begins with XAUUSD (Gold) being "restrained" in a sideways structure. However, don't let this calm deceive you. Technically, this is an accumulation pattern with a clear bearish bias.
The market is in "wait" mode, and patience will be the key to catching the next big wave.
📰 MACRO ANALYSIS: TUG OF WAR AHEAD OF FOMC
The market is caught between two opposing streams of information:
Bearish Pressure: Positive signs of a US-China trade deal are reducing the demand for safe-haven assets, putting pressure on Gold prices.
Bullish Support: The weakening USD due to expectations that the Fed will continue to cut interest rates, inadvertently provides some short-term support for the precious metal.
Decisive Factor: Traders are "lying low" waiting for this week's two-day monetary policy meeting (FOMC). This will be the main event, determining the medium-term trend of USD and Gold.
📊 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: CONTINUATION OF BEARISH STRUCTURE
The H1 chart shows a very clear "Sell" scenario:
Price Structure: After a strong drop from the peak, the price is moving sideways in an accumulation pattern of a bearish pennant. This is a continuation structure, indicating that the Sellers are "resting" before pushing the price further down.
Ideal Sell Zone: The $4195 zone is an extremely strong resistance confluence, marked as "Liquidity strong" on the chart.
This is the 0.5 Fibonacci level, the "golden" retracement point of the entire previous decline.
This is the old support zone now turned into new resistance.
Optimal Scenario: We will wait for the price to pull back to test the $4195 liquidity zone. This is an opportunity for Sellers to enter the market with low risk and high profit potential.
🎯 TRADING PLAN (SELL SETUP)
Absolute priority is to Watch for Selling (Sell) in line with the main trend.
ENTRY (Sell): $4195
STOP LOSS: $4205
TAKE PROFIT: TP1: $4168-TP2: $4145-TP3: $4122-TP4: $4102
SUMMARY
In the context of the market awaiting FOMC news, Gold is likely to make a final "pullback" to the $4195 zone before continuing its downtrend. Be patient and wait for signals at this ideal sell zone.
Wishing traders a successful and disciplined new trading week!
Gold Awaits FOMC Breakout While Holding Key Liquidity BaseMarket Overview:
Gold remains trapped in a tight range as traders weigh optimism from US–China trade progress against cautious expectations for the upcoming FOMC meeting.
The macro picture feels balanced: risk sentiment improves, yet the weaker USD and lingering Fed cut expectations quietly support the metal.
In essence, gold isn’t trending — it’s coiling.
Liquidity is being built, not lost.
Every test of 4,050–4,060 shows strong absorption, while short-term sellers are still defending the 4,186–4,260 region.
The market is waiting for a trigger,
and the FOMC might be the one that decides which side breaks first.
Technical Structure (H1)
Price continues to respect the ascending support trendline from 4,003 and the neckline resistance near 4,107.
This structure has the DNA of a compression model — narrowing volatility, thinning liquidity, preparing for expansion.
If the support at 4,050 holds, a retest of 4,107 → 4,186 remains likely before the next decision point.
Conversely, a liquidity sweep under 4,002 could form the last dip before a bigger rally unfolds.
Key Structural Levels:
Support / Accumulation Zone: 4,058 – 4,050
Mid-Level Pivot / Neckline: 4,107
Upper Supply Zone: 4,186 – 4,260
Deep Liquidity Pool: 4,002 – 3,930
MMFLOW Perspective:
For now, gold is accumulating energy — this is not a breakout market, it’s a build-up market.
Price action above 4,050 still favours the bulls, but conviction will only return once we see a clean break beyond 4,186.
Ahead of FOMC, patience is strategy.
The next wave won’t come from guessing policy —
it’ll come from reading the flow once volatility hits.
Summary:
Gold’s structure remains stable — liquidity is concentrated below 4,050, and compression continues within the 4,060–4,186 band.
Bias stays neutral-to-bullish as long as the liquidity base holds.
📊 What’s your take?
Will the FOMC spark the breakout, or is gold just reloading for the next wave?
👉 Follow MMFLOW TRADING for institutional flow analysis and smart money structure updates.
XAUUSD GOLD 15 MINTS ANALYSIS BULLISH OUTLOOK XAUUSD (Gold/USD) chart on the 15-minute timeframe, and it shows a clear bullish setup structure. Let’s analyze it step by step:
---
🔍 Chart Pattern Analysis
1. Structure & Zones
The chart shows a Support Area highlighted around the 4080–4075 zone.
This indicates a strong demand zone where buyers are entering the market.
The Resistance Area is marked near the 4095–4100 level, which represents the target zone or profit-taking area.
---
2. Pattern Formation
The price movement suggests a bullish flag or consolidation breakout pattern.
After a strong upward impulse, gold entered a sideways consolidation within the support area.
The breakout from this zone signals continuation of the prior bullish trend.
---
3. Trade Setup (as seen in chart)
Entry Zone: Around 4077–4080
Target Zone: Around 4095–4100
Stop-Loss: Below 4070 support area
This setup reflects a bullish continuation with a favorable risk–reward ratio.
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4. Volume Profile Observation
Notice higher trading volume near the support zone, confirming buying pressure.
As price moves toward resistance, volume slightly reduces, showing controlled profit booking.
---
📈 Conclusion
The chart pattern shows a bullish continuation setup on XAUUSD.
Gold is expected to move upward from the support area (4077–4080) toward the target zone (4095–4100) if the momentum continues.
Outlook: ✅ Bullish
Entry: $4080–4077
Target: $4095
Stop-Loss: $4070
Plan |Gold Gradually Accumulating, Ready for a Rebound Wave?🔍 Market Context
After reaching the historical peak ATH GOLD 4,371 USD , gold underwent a deep correction, breaking the short-term bullish structure (BoS) and retesting the OB Bearish zone above .
However, since the price returned to the 4,040 – 4,060 USD area, the market has clearly shown signs of liquidity absorption ($$$) and maintained an internal uptrend line, indicating that buying momentum is returning.
The current structure suggests gold is in a re-accumulation phase before forming a medium-term rebound wave towards the 4,185 → 4,243 USD zone.
The buyers hold the advantage as long as the price does not break the main support trendline.
💎 Key Technical Structure
Support Zone: 4,040 – 4,060 USD → a strong support zone confluencing with the trendline, where institutional buying forces have appeared.
Support Trendline: connecting the series of higher lows from 15/10 → the short-term trend remains bullish.
Liquidity Zone $$$: 4,060 – 4,080 → supply absorption zone, confirming its role as a “price base”.
Resistance Zone: 4,149 – 4,185 → the first resistance zone to break to confirm the recovery momentum.
Target FVG / Supply Zone: 4,243 – 4,250 → potential profit-taking zone or point to consider reversal.
Current structure:
→ Short-term: bullish corrective move.
→ Medium-term: potential for forming an extended recovery wave if it holds above 4,040 USD.
📈 Trading Scenarios
1️⃣ BUY Setup – Retest Trendline / Liquidity Zone 4,060 USD
Entry: 4,060 – 4,070
SL: 4,035
TP1: 4,149
TP2: 4,185
TP3: 4,243
✅ Condition:
Price touches the trendline or liquidity zone 4,060 and shows a bullish reversal signal (rejection / bullish engulfing).
➡️ This is a high-probability setup, confluencing the trendline structure + liquidity support zone, often where large buyers re-enter the market.
2️⃣ BUY Setup – Break & Retest resistance zone 4,149 USD
Entry: 4,149 – 4,155
SL: 4,130
TP1: 4,185
TP2: 4,243
✅ Condition:
Wait for the price to break the resistance zone 4,149 with strong volume, then lightly retest without closing the candle below 4,130.
➡️ Trend-following setup – confirms the return of buying momentum and extends the target to the FVG zone 4,243 USD.
3️⃣ SELL Setup (Scalp Reaction) – FVG 4,243 USD
Entry: 4,240 – 4,245
SL: 4,255
TP: 4,185 → 4,150
✅ Condition:
Only execute if there is a strong reaction at FVG 4,243 without a continuation break signal.
➡️ Short-term technical sell – exploiting the supply zone reaction, do not hold the position long.
⚠️ Risk Management
Prioritise trading in the buy direction, avoid selling against the main trend.
If H2 closes the candle below 4,035 → bullish scenario invalid, wait for a new structure.
Do not FOMO buy in the middle range (4,090–4,130).
Keep moderate volume, move SL to breakeven when the price exceeds 4,149.
💬 Conclusion
Gold is in an ascending re-accumulation phase after a strong decline.
As long as the price holds the trendline and support zone 4,040 – 4,060 USD, there is a high chance gold will rebound following the liquidity + breakout retest model, with the main target being 4,185 → 4,243 USD .
If it breaks through 4,243 USD, the market may trigger a stronger recovery momentum towards 4,300 – 4,340 USD .
👉 Reasonable Strategy:
Buy 4,060–4,070 → TP 4,185 / 4,243 USD
Add Buy when breaking 4,149 USD with volume confirmation.
Technical Sell 4,243 USD if there is no signal to break higher.
🔥 “As long as 4,040 holds, gold remains in accumulation — patience will pay.”
⏰ Timeframe: 2H
📅 Update: 27/10/2025
✍️ Analysis by: Captain Vincent
Gold Forecast — Market Turning BullishGold (XAU/USD) maintains a strong long-term bullish trend, supported by rising investor demand and global macroeconomic stability. After completing a healthy correction phase, the market is showing renewed strength, indicating a potential continuation of the broader uptrend.
Current price action reflects accumulation behavior among institutional traders, signaling confidence in gold’s long-term value growth. The consistent pattern of higher lows and steady momentum suggests that buyers are firmly in control, preparing for another upward expansion cycle.
From a fundamental perspective, global inflation concerns, a weaker U.S. dollar, and geopolitical tensions continue to support gold prices. Investors are increasingly seeking protection in safe-haven assets, which further strengthens gold’s long-term position in the market.
Technical structure and sentiment both align with a buy-side outlook, highlighting the potential for gold to extend gains as liquidity continues to build in the current price zones.
In summary, gold remains in a strong buying phase, with market data, investor sentiment, and macroeconomic indicators all favoring sustained upward momentum.
Keywords: Gold forecast, XAU/USD analysis, gold long-term trend, gold price outlook, bullish gold market, gold accumulation phase, forex gold trading, gold price prediction 2025.
XAUUSD: Structure Broken! Can the Fed Rate Cut Save Gold?Gold has just completed its first losing week in 10, after a historic rally. Following the record peak of $4,381.21, Gold experienced a sharp correction driven by profit-taking and easing US-China trade tensions. However, weaker-than-expected US CPI data has strongly reinforced expectations for an upcoming Fed rate cut, creating a significant market conflict.
I. MARKET CONTEXT ANALYSIS (H4)
Structure: The prior bullish structure has been broken, shifting the bias to bearish in the short term.
Liquidity: Market forces are now targeting key stop-loss zones to collect liquidity before the next major move.
Strategy: We look to Sell when price pulls back to the Supply Zone (Premium) and Buy when price sweeps liquidity into the strong Demand Zone.
II. DETAILED TRADING PLAN
1. SELL Scenario 📉 (At Supply Zones)
Trade 1:
Entry: $4,202 - $4,204
SL: $4,212
TP: $4,194 / $4,184 / $4,174 / $4,164
Trade 2:
Entry: $4,252 - $4,256
SL: $4,272
TP: $4,236 / $4,216 / $4,196 / $4,176
2. BUY Scenario 📈 (At Demand Zones)
Trade 1:
Entry: $4,158 - $4,161
SL: $4,151
TP: $4,168 / $4,178 / $4,188 / $4,198
Trade 2 (Critical):
Entry: $3,966 - $3,969 (Strong Demand Zone, post-liquidity sweep)
SL: $3,949
TP: $3,989 / $4,009 / $4,029 / $4,049
III. RISK MANAGEMENT NOTE
Capital: Always limit risk to ≤ 1% of capital per trade.
Confirmation: Prioritize waiting for reversal confirmation on lower timeframes (M15/M5) to optimize Risk/Reward ratio.
This is the decisive moment! Trade safe and good luck!
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Gold Analysis and Trading Strategy for next week✅ This week, gold closed with a long upper shadow candle, indicating strong selling pressure at higher levels. Since rising from 3311 on August 20, the weekly chart has recorded nine consecutive bullish candles, and this week marks the first bearish close, suggesting that the long-term uptrend is losing momentum and market sentiment is turning cautious. Structurally, the medium-term bullish strength is weakening, and if gold fails to stabilize, it may gradually enter a corrective phase.
✅ The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision will be announced next Wednesday. If the outcome and statement do not trigger significant changes in policy expectations, market volatility is likely to remain limited, and gold will probably continue oscillating within the $4000–$4200 range. It’s worth noting that rate-cut expectations have already been largely priced in; if the statement leans hawkish, gold may face short-term pressure, while a dovish tone or any geopolitical risk events could trigger a temporary rally.
✅ On Friday, the daily candle formed a long lower shadow of about $70, indicating solid buying interest at the bottom. A short-term technical rebound is possible; however, if the rebound fails to break above previous highs, gold could easily form a “spike and drop” pattern.
✅ On the 1-hour chart, the structure currently shows a “double-top + consolidation” pattern, with key resistance near 4160–4161.
If gold breaks and holds above 4161, it could form a “triple-bottom” structure on the 1-hour chart, opening room for a further rise toward 4200.
However, if the rebound fails below 4160, short-term momentum will likely remain weak and range-bound.
Key support is seen near 4010–4005, and a breakdown below this level could trigger a retest of 4000.
🔴 Resistance Levels: 4160–4185
🟢 Support Levels: 4010–4005
✅ Trading Strategy Reference:
🔰 If gold rebounds to 4160–4150 and faces resistance, consider light short positions, with a stop loss 8-10$ and targets at 4100–4050.
🔰 If gold pulls back to 4010–4005 and stabilizes, consider short-term long positions, with a stop loss below 3995 and targets at 4080–4100.
✅ After nine consecutive weeks of gains, gold’s first bearish weekly candle shows diminishing upward momentum. In the short term, the market remains in a sideways consolidation phase. Focus on the 4160 breakout zone and the 4000 support area. Before a clear breakout occurs, maintain a range-trading strategy, selling at highs and buying at lows, with strict risk management.
How to Initiate buy side with volume accumulation confirmation.This chart illustrates a structured educational trade analysis on the XAU/USD (Gold vs US Dollar) instrument, showing how a professional analyst guides students through a trade setup using volume, price action, and Bollinger Bands.
Market Context
The chart begins during a high-volatility news event from the USA. Post-news, a large bullish candle formed with significant **impulse buyer volume**, indicated by the sharp price rise and high-volume bars. These **impulse buyers** enter aggressively after news releases but tend to **book profits soon after**. Analysts refer to them as opportunity creators because their trading footprints (volume clusters) reveal strong demand zones, which can later serve as high-probability entry points.
Identifying Opportunity Zones
The analyst points out that volume added beyond previous clusters signifies **fresh bullish participation**, confirming that strong buyers entered the market. This leaves a "volume footprint" — a strong **support level** around the base of that bullish candle. The teaching point here is that whenever price later revisits such a volume zone, it becomes a **potential re-entry area** aligned with institutional activity.
Trade Execution
Later, the same volume levels were retested, as shown in the chart. When price revisited this zone with declining bearish pressure and stable volume, the analyst initiated a **buy trade**. This buy aligns with:
- Retest of volume-supported demand area
- Lower band support of Bollinger Bands
- Confirmation of slowing volatility
This setup is a classic “volume-backed retest entry.”
Profit Booking and Volatility Analysis
As price climbed higher, **profits were booked** near the upper Bollinger Band, signaling volatility slowdown. The analyst explains that this is where price expansion peaks, and short-term traders ideally reduce or close positions to lock in profits. The Bollinger Band compression afterward suggests reduced volatility and temporary consolidation.
Key Educational Insights
1. Impulse volume after major news creates future trade opportunities.
2. Volume footprints** reveal institutional trading zones; retests of these zones are high-probability entries.
3. Bollinger Bands help identify overextension (for exits) and contraction phases (preparing for next moves).
4. Combining **volume + structure + volatility** improves timing and conviction in trade entries and exits.
In summary, the analyst demonstrates how to transform raw post-news volatility into an educated, systematic trade using volume behavior and volatility tools to guide student traders in professional decision-making.






















