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GOLD.F trade ideas

Part 2 Support ans ResistanceAdvantages of Options High leverage (small money → big exposure). Flexibility (profit in up, down, or sideways markets). Risk defined for buyers (can lose only premium). Useful for hedging portfolios. Risks of Options Time decay: Value decreases as expiry approaches. High leverage can cause big losses (especially for sellers). Complexity: Needs knowledge of Greeks, volatility, etc. Emotions: Options move fast → fear & greed affect traders. Options Greeks (Advanced but Important) The “Greeks” help measure how option prices move with market factors: Delta → Change in option price vs stock price. Gamma → Rate of change of Delta. Theta → Time decay (how much premium falls daily). Vega → Impact of volatility on premium. Rho → Impact of interest rates. 👉 Example: If an option has Theta = -10, it means the premium will lose ₹10 per day (if all else same).
TVC:GOLDEducation
by SkyTradingZone
3
XAUUSD Gold Trading Strategy August 27, 2025XAUUSD Gold Trading Strategy August 27, 2025: Gold prices remain in the rising price channel, trading opportunities for investors. Basic news: CB Consumer Confidence Report (August) is 97.4, higher than the forecast of 96.4 but lower than last month's 98.7. News that President Trump decided to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook still has a strong impact on the US Dollar, creating upward momentum for gold. Technical analysis: Gold prices continue to fluctuate in the rising price channel, however, after approaching the 3395 area, gold prices are currently adjusting. MA lines, liquidity zones combined with Fib frames and price channels are still supporting the upward momentum for gold prices. We continue to wait for transactions in these support areas. There is a high possibility that spot gold prices will approach the 3410 - 3420 area and continue to be held. Important price zones today: 3358 - 3363 and 3347 - 3352. Today's trading trend: BUY. Recommended orders: Plan 1: BUY XAUUSD zone 3358 - 3360 SL 3355 TP 3363 - 3373 - 3393 - 3410. Plan 2: BUY XAUUSD zone 3347 - 3349 SL 3344 TP 3352 - 3362 - 3382 - 3400. Plan 3: SELL XAUUSD zone 3418 - 3420 SL 3423 TP 3415 - 3405 - 3395 - 3380 (small volume). Wish you a safe, effective and profitable trading day.🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰
OANDA:XAUUSD
by pigout
August 27 Gold AnalysisAugust 27 Gold Analysis US President Trump announced he would fire Federal Reserve Governor Tim Cook, accusing him of misconduct in obtaining mortgages. This unprecedented action, if challenged in court, will test the limits of the president's power over an independent monetary policy institution. 01 Political Uncertainty Supports Gold Prices Trump's direct intervention in the Federal Reserve has created market uncertainty and stimulated safe-haven demand. Historically, such presidential action against Fed officials is rare, and this incident could trigger legal challenges and concerns about institutional stability. The Federal Reserve's status as an independent institution has been questioned, and investors have sought safe-haven assets. Gold, a traditional safe haven, has found support amid this political uncertainty. 02 Rate Cut Expectations Provide Upward Support Federal Reserve Chairman Powell hinted last week that a rate cut is possible at the September meeting, noting rising risks in the job market. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, the market currently prices an over 87% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September. 03 Economic Data and Market Focus Data on Tuesday showed that US durable goods orders fell 2.8% in July, compared to expectations for a 4% drop and following a 9.4% drop in June. While the data beat expectations, it still showed a continued slowdown in manufacturing activity. Investors are currently awaiting the revised US second-quarter GDP figures to be released on Thursday and the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data on Friday. These data will provide further clues about the health of the US economy and may influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. In particular, the PCE data, as the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, will have a significant impact on market expectations. Any signs of weakening inflation could reinforce expectations of rate cuts, thereby supporting gold prices. 04 Technical Bullish Pattern Maintained From a technical analysis perspective, gold quickly fell to a low of $3,351 before a strong rally. The daily candlestick chart closed strongly above the high, maintaining a strong bullish upward trend. Gold broke through another new high today. Although it has retreated slightly from its two-week high, the gold bulls remain the primary trend. The 4-hour Bollinger Bands and moving averages are both bullish, indicating that the technical bulls have the upper hand. Key support below is the 3370-3373 area. Intraday pullbacks to this level remain bullish. The short-term bullish stronghold is located near 3360. If the daily chart stabilizes above this level, a buying trend will continue. 05 Trading Strategy Gold's medium- to long-term outlook remains positive, supported by political uncertainty and expectations of rate cuts. Any pullback to support levels is likely to attract more buyers. Key resistance remains at the psychologically important $3400 level. A break above this level could open up opportunities for an upward move towards $3440. Trading strategy: Buy on dips with strict stop-loss orders. Market volatility may intensify, so closely monitor the development of the dispute between Trump and the Federal Reserve, as well as upcoming important economic data releases. Trade with caution and manage risk! Wish you a smooth trade!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Emily357538
XAU/USD Trading Plan – Gold Eyes 3400! 🚀Gold continues to hold its bullish momentum as the USD weakens, and buyers are stepping in with strong FOMO-driven demand. However, a short-term correction (1–2 days) is still possible before the next big leg higher. The smart play? ⚡ Wait for clean pullbacks into strong liquidity zones — buy low, hold, and ride the trend. 📊 Short-Term View (M15–H1) Break below 337x could push Gold quickly down to 335x–334x to fill liquidity gaps. Bigger picture remains bullish with a potential run to 3400 and beyond. 🔑 Key Levels Support: 3363 – 3356 – 3349 – 3335 Resistance: 3385 – 3391 – 3402 – 3425 🎯 Trading Plan ✅ Buy Setups Scalp Buy: 3356 – 3354 SL: 3350 Targets: 3360 → 3365 → 3370 → 3375 → 3380 → 3390 → 3400+ Swing Buy Zone: 3336 – 3334 SL: 3330 Targets: 3340 → 3350 → 3360 → 3380 → 3400+ ❌ Sell Setups Scalp Sell: 3385 – 3387 SL: 3390 Targets: 3380 → 3375 → 3370 → 3365 → 3350 High-Risk Sell Zone: 3401 – 3403 SL: 3407 Targets: 3396 → 3390 → 3380 → 3370 📌 Takeaway Gold is still bullish overall, but short-term dips are healthy and provide the best entry points. Stay patient, wait for price action to confirm at key support, and let the market pay you.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading
XAU/USD H4 – Short-Term Cool-Off, Gap Fill in FocusHello everyone, After the Jackson Hole symposium, Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted potential rate cuts but stressed a cautious approach due to rising employment risks. This stance boosted September rate cut expectations in the interest rate derivatives market. Early this week, the USD rebounded slightly and gold paused around 3,355–3,360 as profit-taking followed last week’s spike – a typical “good news priced in, then back to balance” reaction. This week, U.S. economic data such as New Home Sales, Durable Goods, Consumer Confidence, preliminary GDP, Personal Income/Spending, and especially Core PCE will act as key catalysts, potentially amplifying short-term gold volatility. Last week’s rally was absorbed near the 3,372–3,378 supply/FVG zone (long wicks, lower closes), while a bullish FVG 3,355–3,345 formed below – often attracting price back to equilibrium before the next directional move. With price still below the cloud edge and candles weakening after the spike, the short-term bias is bearish. I favor a retracement toward 3,355 → 3,345, possibly extending to 3,340–3,338 to fully fill the gap. What’s your take on this scenario? Share your thoughts below.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by EmmaChartist
3
Gold Plan 27/08 – Captain Vincent (IN)XAU/USD – Trump strengthens control over the FED, Gold consolidates near Storm Breaker 1. News Wave 🌍 Trump: “We will soon have majority control at the FED. Miran may be moved to another position with a longer term.” Trump: “I already have a candidate in mind to replace FED Governor L. Cook.” US Senate: Preparing hearings next week for Trump’s nominee – S. Miran . 👉 Message: Trump is consolidating power within the FED. Market fears FED losing independence → USD volatility rises, Gold benefits from safe-haven flows . 2. Technical Outlook ⚙️ Gold is approaching Storm Breaker 🌊 (3400 – 3402) , overlapping with resistance 3392 – 3406 → profit-taking likely . On H1, multiple FVGs remain unfilled around 3355 & 3330 → Price may correct to retest these supports before choosing direction. Intraday bias: Range-bound → Sell at resistance, short Buy at supports. 3. Captain Vincent’s Map – Key Levels 🪙 Resistance (Kháng cự): 3406 – 3400 – 3392 (Storm Breaker 🌊) Support (Hỗ trợ): 3372 (Minor Shield 🛡️) 3355 (Quick Boarding 🚤 – Buy Scalp Zone) 3344 (Intermediate Shield 🛡️) 3330 (Golden Harbor 🏝️ – Main Buy Zone) 4. Trade Scenarios 📌 🔻 SELL at Storm Breaker 🌊 (Priority) Entry: 3400 – 3402 SL: 3408 TP: 3395 → 3393 → 3389 → 3386 → 33xx 🚤 BUY Scalp – Quick Boarding Entry: 3353 – 3355 SL: 3345 TP: 3358 → 3361 → 3363 → 33xx 🏝️ BUY at Golden Harbor (Strong Support) Entry: 3330 – 3332 SL: 3325 TP: 3335 → 3338 → 3341 → 33xx 5. Captain’s Note ⚓ "Gold today faces Storm Breaker 🌊 above, but multiple shields of support remain below. Smart traders will scalp quickly at Quick Boarding 🚤, or patiently wait for Golden Harbor 🏝️ to anchor safely."
OANDA:XAUUSD
by CaptainVincent
XAUUSD – Medium-Term Trading ScenarioXAUUSD – Medium-Term Trading Scenario Hello traders, Gold is moving into the final stage of its flag pattern. Medium-term traders are now waiting for a clear breakout confirmation, as that will set the direction for the next medium- to long-term opportunities. Once price confirms the break, the strategy is to enter immediately in the direction of the move. Meanwhile, short-term and day traders continue to trade within the flag, looking for scalping opportunities. From my perspective, the probability of gold breaking to the upside and continuing the main bullish trend is fairly high after such a long consolidation. To optimise entries, buying near the lower boundary of the trendline makes sense, with stop-losses placed immediately if the pattern breaks down. The key area to watch is Fibonacci retracement 0.5 at 3354, which acts as both dynamic and static support, as well as a strong Fibonacci level. This zone offers a reliable long-term buy opportunity. Another potential early buy entry sits around 3372, where the previous candle showed strong bullish momentum. Positions here can be taken with tighter stops placed just below the nearest support. This bullish scenario would only fail if price breaks below the lower trendline and closes firmly underneath it, which would confirm a reversal. Wishing you success with this setup. If you share the same outlook, leave your thoughts in the comments so we can exchange ideas.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by BrianLionCapital
2
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD 27/08/2025 Momentum • D1 timeframe: Momentum is showing reversal signals, as mentioned in yesterday’s plan. Currently, D1 is in the overbought zone, suggesting that bullish momentum has weakened and the market needs at least one corrective move to regain strength. • H4 timeframe: Momentum is turning bearish. We need to wait for the current candle to close for confirmation, but there is a high probability that today’s main trend will be bearish. • H1 timeframe: Momentum is in the oversold zone and preparing to turn up. If price rises into the overbought zone, then reverses bearish without breaking above 3394, there is a strong chance of a long-term decline – creating a sell opportunity. ________________________________________ Wave Structure • D1 timeframe: With current reversal signals, there are two possible scenarios: 1. Triangle abcde – as shown in previous plans. 2. Combination correction (WXY) – where wave W is a zigzag, wave X is a double zigzag, and wave Y is a triangle (as on the chart). In this case, price may decline back toward 3311. 👉 Both scenarios are valid, with no clear dominance, so continued observation is required. • H4 timeframe: A diagonal ending triangle is forming, combined with H4 momentum turning bearish. Although we need confirmation from the current H4 close, it is clear that bullish momentum is weakening → we should look for sell opportunities in line with H4 momentum. • H1 timeframe: According to yesterday’s plan, we expected wave 3. However, several factors suggest otherwise: o Price corrected deeply toward 3350. o The rebound lacked strong momentum. o An ending diagonal triangle appeared (not typical in wave 3, as it reflects very weak buying pressure). o RSI shows bearish divergence, further confirming weakening bullish momentum. Altogether, these point to a likely strong and sharp decline once the pattern completes. 📌 Ideal target zone: 3387 – 3390. If the current drop is wave A or wave 1, then the rebound of wave B or wave 2 should unfold within this zone. ________________________________________ Trading Plan • Sell Zone: 3387 – 3390 • Stop Loss: 3397 • Take Profit: o TP1: 3371 o TP2: 3350 o TP3: 3330
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by WavePoint_FX
1
Weekly High Turns Support: Can Gold Push Higher?We have seen a good momentum / continuation since Friday’s sharp rally and is now holding firm above the previous week’s high at 3378, turning it into immediate support. The weekly pivot at 3353 adds another solid support layer below, while the rising trendline support is keeping the bullish structure intact. As long as these levels hold, buyers seem in control, and the price action suggests that bulls are not ready to give up recent gains. On the upside, the next hurdle is around the 3400–3410 zone, which could act as near-term resistance. For sellers, any breakdown below the pivot (3353) would be a high-probability setup for downside pressure, while a break below the trendline would be a lower-probability but still valid bearish signal. Until then, the path of least resistance remains tilted to the upside with steady bullish momentum.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TheGoldenCircle
1
Smart money sold at premium (after BSL sweep)1.Premium Array (Top Zone) • Price rallied into the Premium Array (above equilibrium). • This is where smart money looks to sell, because the market is at a premium. • The spike above PDH/PWH = Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL) raid → stop hunt. 2.Liquidity Grab • That long wick above the Premium Array shows liquidity being taken. • Breakout traders went long; their stops funded institutional sell orders. • After liquidity is taken, price reverses down. 3.Market Structure Shift (MSS) • Once price rejected the premium zone, it broke lower, showing bearish intent. • This aligns with the “sell high, buy low” ICT logic. 4.Discount Array (Lower Zone) • The area below equilibrium (50% of the range) = Discount Array. • Smart money looks for buys in this zone. • Your chart shows 1H FVG + PDL + Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL) as confluence. 5.Bullish Setup Area • The shaded “Good area for bullish” + “Powerful A+ area for bullish” means: • Price may drop into the PDL/SSL/FVG confluence. • Once liquidity is grabbed below → market could reverse upward again. 📘 Narrative in ICT Style • First, price ran above BSL in the Premium Array to engineer liquidity. • Then, distribution happened at premium, shifting structure bearish. • Now, price is likely being delivered toward discount zones (PDL, FVG, SSL). • These are the optimal trade entry (OTE) zones for longs if bullish narrative holds. 👉 So in short: will look to buy back at discount (PDL/SSL/FVG zones).
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TurtleSoupConcept
2
Is Gold's Bullish Trend Here to Stay?On the chart, gold has broken through the previous small downtrend channel, opening up new opportunities for a rally. The $3,360 level has become a key support, while the nearest resistance targets are at $3,430 and $3,458. The current price structure shows a clear "break & retest" scenario, with buying momentum dominating as gold stays above key EMA levels. Supporting News for Gold's Bullish Trend: The weakening USD, declining U.S. bond yields, rising geopolitical tensions, and the potential for a Fed rate cut have created favorable conditions for gold's upward movement. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's comments at Jackson Hole signaled that the Fed could ease tightening if the labor market weakens, strongly supporting gold's bullish trend. Trading Strategy: Buy on dip around $3,360–$3,365. Target at $3,430 and $3,458. Stop-loss below $3,350 to manage risk. If the Fed maintains its dovish tone and the USD remains weak, gold is likely to continue its upward momentum in the short term, opening the door for higher price levels in September.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Rocky_trade_
1
xau/usdThis XAU/USD setup is a sell trade, reflecting a short-term bearish outlook on gold prices. The entry price is 3367, the stop-loss is 3372, and the exit price is 3356. This trade aims for an 11-point profit while risking 5 points, providing a favorable risk-to-reward ratio of better than 2:1. Selling at 3367 suggests the trader expects downward momentum, possibly triggered by strength in the U.S. dollar, firmer Treasury yields, or reduced safe-haven demand. The level may also align with a resistance zone, where selling pressure is likely to build, signaling an opportunity to enter a short position. The target at 3356 is strategically set near a support zone to secure profits before potential buyers step back in. On the other hand, the stop-loss at 3372 ensures losses remain limited if gold unexpectedly pushes higher. This setup favors intraday traders seeking disciplined execution with controlled risk and strong reward potential.
TVC:GOLDShort
by smohdyusuf66
Gold about To Fly! ATH soon!Gold has been In Consolidation for past 5 Months. 4 occasions when it had settled near 3300. It's about time for Gold to take Shorts For Cleaners? This time around it's about to Settle near 3400. 3420 3440 will be Crucial for Bears to Defend if they wish to hold grip over this Consolidation. Longs will get aggressive above 3440 3450 Targeting 3550 3750 😲 A prolonged consolidation could continue in case 3420 shows Profit Booking For time Being 3375 3350 looks like providing support. If it continues to Hold then it may build the Bull Case
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by DrAnandM
Gold – Rejection from Trendline ResistanceHello everyone, Gold faced rejection from the ascending trendline resistance and formed a bearish setup. A short position has been taken with stop above the recent swing high and target near 3339 support zone. Key Points: Trendline Resistance: Price failed to sustain above the trendline. Risk Management: Stop placed above 3391 to protect against false breakouts. Target Zone: First support lies near 3339 where price may react. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only, not financial advice.
TVC:GOLDShort
by TraderRahulPal
Gold Trading Strategy for 27th August 2025📊 Gold Trading Setup 🟢 Buy Setup Entry: Buy above the high of the 1-hour candle that closes above 3405 Targets: 🎯 3415 → 3425 → 3435 Stop Loss (SL): Place SL below the low of the breakout candle 🔴 Sell Setup Entry: Sell below the low of the 1-hour candle that closes below 3378 Targets: 🎯 3368 → 3358 → 3348 Stop Loss (SL): Place SL above the high of the breakdown candle ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is for educational and informational purposes only. 📚 Trading in commodities, forex, or stocks involves significant risk. 📉📈 Please do your own analysis before entering trades. 💡
TVC:GOLD
by ramkkyy
"Gold Setup: Buying Zone Rejection or Breakout Ahead?""Gold Setup: Buying Zone Rejection or Breakout Ahead?" Gold is currently trading inside a buying zone (3380 – 3400) but facing rejection. Market structure is still holding higher lows, which keeps the bigger trend bullish, but short-term price action suggests a possible retracement move. Resistance Zone: 3420 – 3440 (strong supply, previous rejection) Key Support: 3330 – 3320 (major demand, higher low base) Immediate Target: 3340 – 3360 (if rejection continues) 📉 Short-term bias: bearish correction toward 3340 – 3360 📈 Swing bias: bullish as long as 3330 – 3320 holds 🔑 My View: I’ll be watching how price reacts around 3330 – 3320. Holding this level could trigger the next bullish leg toward 3420 – 3440. Losing it opens the door for deeper downside into 3280.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Mentor_Michael03
Gold Trading Strategy | August 26-27✅ 4-Hour Chart: Gold has rebounded strongly from the 3312–3315 lows, reaching as high as 3389, and is now consolidating at higher levels. Overall, it continues to move within an upward channel. The MA5, MA10, and MA20 remain in a bullish alignment, with price trading steadily above them, indicating a solid bullish trend. However, short-term consolidation is needed at higher levels. As long as 3365–3358 holds, gold still has the potential to retest the 3390–3400 zone. 🔴 Resistance Levels: 3389–3390 / 3400 🟢 Support Levels: 3365–3360 / 3355 ✅ Trading Strategy Reference: 🔰 If gold pulls back to the 3365–3360 area, consider building long positions in batches, with stop-loss below 3354. Targets: 3380–3386, and if momentum is strong, look for 3395–3400. 🔰 If gold first touches the 3395–3400 zone, consider light short positions, with stop-loss above 3410. Targets: 3380–3370. 🔥Trading Reminder: Trading strategies are time-sensitive, and market conditions can change rapidly. Please adjust your trading plan based on real-time market conditions. If you have any questions or need one-on-one guidance, feel free to contact me🤝
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MarketSage_FX
XAU/USD - H4 Downtrend Broken – Watch Key Liquidity Zones!MMFLOW Trading Plan | 26 Aug 2025 ⚡ 💰 Gold looks ready for a strong move! Gold has smashed through the H4 downtrend line, showing strong buying pressure and clear liquidity sweeps. This signals a potential bullish continuation. ⚠️ Be aware: wide support zones below may trigger quick pullbacks as liquidity gets collected. 📊 Market Snapshot (India Focus) USD is losing strength amid political uncertainty and Fed moves Trump’s efforts to influence lower interest rates are indirectly supporting gold H4 downtrend line broken → buyers are in control Short-term: expect sideways swings + liquidity tests Watch for fast spikes – FOMO buy zones are usually targeted ⚡ Key Levels to Watch Resistance: 3378 → 3384 → 3400 Support: 3363 → 3354 → 3340 🔥 Trading Scenarios BUY SCALP (Short-Term Quick Trade) Entry: 3355 – 3353 Stop Loss: 3349 Targets: 3360 → 3365 → 3370 → 3380 → 3390 → 3400+ BUY ZONE (Swing / Longer-Term Trade) Entry: 3341 – 3339 Stop Loss: 3335 Targets: 3345 → 3350 → 3355 → 3360 → 3365 → 3370 → 3380 → 3390 → 3400+ SELL SCALP (Quick Reversal) Entry: 3382 – 3384 Stop Loss: 3388 Targets: 3378 → 3374 → 3370 → 3365 → 3360 → 3350 SELL ZONE (High Risk / Big Moves) Entry: 3400 – 3402 Stop Loss: 3406 Targets: 3395 → 3390 → 3385 → 3380 → 3370 → 3360 ⚠️ Risk Notes Expect rapid drops or spikes – stops can trigger fast Sideways movement likely during sessions + retests of highs Only trade when price action confirms key levels 🎯 Key Takeaways for Indian Traders Gold is poised for a strong bullish continuation, but quick pullbacks will happen to collect liquidity Use support / liquidity zones for entries and resistance zones for exits MMFLOW = Market Rules | Key Levels = Profit
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading
2
BUY SETUPMarket Context: Price is approaching a key support / demand zone where buyers are likely to step in. Momentum indicates potential strength for an upward move. 🔹 Why Buy Here: Price holding above strong support. Market structure showing higher lows. Candlestick / momentum confirmation aligns with bullish pressure. Risk–reward favorable if price continues upside. 🔹 Trade Idea: Bias: Bullish Setup: Look for buy opportunities near support or after confirmation candle closes. Risk Management: Always use a stop-loss below invalidation level. Trail stops as price moves in favor. 🔹 Important Notes: Avoid chasing trades. Wait for confirmation before entering. Manage position size according to account risk.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Aj1t4
1
August 26 Gold AnalysisAugust 26 Gold Analysis The gold market is volatile but firm. Following yesterday's sharp rise, gold prices retreated slightly today, but are still holding key support levels. Spot gold is currently trading around $3,370 per ounce, down slightly from yesterday's two-week high of $3,378. Market forces are intertwined, and gold prices are expected to fluctuate around key technical levels in the short term, but the medium- to long-term bullish outlook remains unchanged. Analysis of Influencing Factors 1. Fed Policy Expectations Dominate Market Sentiment Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered a clear dovish signal at the Jackson Hole symposium, opening the door to a September rate cut. Powell focused on the "strange equilibrium" in the job market, noting that the simultaneous slowdown in labor supply and demand suggests accumulating downside risks. While he continued to warn of inflationary uncertainties, he explicitly stated that "a shift in the balance of risks may require a policy response." This statement caused the market's probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September to surge from 75% to 90%. Expectations for the cumulative rate cuts by year-end were also revised upward. Powell's speech placed the labor market at the center of policy decisions, downplaying the impact of recent higher-than-expected inflation data. 2. Political Pressure and Concerns About the Fed's Independence It is worth noting that Powell's dovish stance may, in part, reflect political pressure. Given that US President Trump and the Treasury Secretary, among others, have strongly urged the Fed to cut interest rates significantly, Powell faces unprecedented pressure. Trump also reiterated his threat to fire Fed Governor Timothy Cook if she does not resign, raising concerns about the Fed's independence. This political interference in the central bank has weakened market confidence in the US dollar as a reserve currency, becoming a key driver of the decline in the US dollar index and indirectly supporting gold prices. 3. Economic Data and Market Focus Market focus has shifted to upcoming US economic data, which will have a significant impact on gold's short-term performance: - Today: July durable goods orders data will be released. Following a sharp 9.3% drop in June, the market expects a further 4% drop. Positive data could boost the US dollar and weigh on gold prices. - Thursday: Revised second-quarter GDP figures will be released, with the initial estimate of annual growth at 3%. Downward revisions are bearish for the dollar and supportive for gold, while upward revisions are the opposite. - Friday: July's core PCE price index (the Fed's most closely watched inflation indicator) will be released. This data will directly impact the strength of expectations for a rate cut. A higher-than-expected reading will cast doubt on the urgency of rate cuts and weigh on gold prices; a lower-than-expected reading will reinforce expectations of easing and drive a rebound in gold prices. 4. The US Dollar and US Treasury Yields Decline Following Powell's speech, the US dollar index fell sharply, 0.96%, to 97.66. US Treasury yields also fell across the board, with the two-year yield plummeting 10.2 basis points to 3.69% and the 10-year yield falling to around 4.259%. A steepening yield curve reduces the cost of holding gold, enhancing its appeal. 5. Geopolitical Risks Provide Support Geopolitical tensions continue to provide safe-haven support for gold prices: - Trade Tensions: Trump's tariff policy continues to escalate global trade tensions. The United States has imposed an additional 25% tariff on India, bringing the total tariff rate to 50%. - Russia-Ukraine conflict: The escalating tensions have also provided some safe-haven support. Trading Recommendations - Aggressive investors: Initiate long positions in batches when gold prices fall back to the $3,360-3,368 support area, with a stop-loss below $3,350 and a target of $3,385-3,400. - Conservative investors: Wait for gold prices to effectively break through $3,400 before entering long positions, or enter medium- to long-term long positions if they fall back to $3,340-3,350. - Risk Management: Ensure stop-loss orders are set appropriately to avoid the risks associated with volatile market fluctuations around the release of data. Maintain position management during trading and avoid trading without risk management. Trade with caution and manage risk effectively! Wish you good luck!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Emily357538