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GOLD Marching Toward $4,000 Zone? Gold Holds Firm Above 3,900Gold starts the week with relentless bullish momentum, breaking through 3,900 USD for the first time and eyeing new record highs. The rally is fueled by safe-haven demand as the US government shutdown drags on and market expectations grow for an upcoming Fed rate cut. Despite a stronger USD and risk appetite in equities, gold buyers remain firmly in control. 🔎 Technical Outlook (H1 – FIBO Matrix) 📍 Reaction Buy Zones 3884 – 3880 (Fibo 0.5 support) → Short-term demand pocket. 386x (Fibo 0.618 H1) → Stronger liquidity-backed support, high-probability rebound zone. 📍 Reaction Sell Zones 393x – 394x (Fibo Extension 1.5 – 1.618) → Intraday resistance, possible rejection. 4,000 (Psychological Round Level) → Key psychological barrier; heavy liquidity likely. 🎯 Trade Plan 1️⃣ BUY Scenario Entry: 3884 – 3880 / 386x, wait for bullish confirmation. Targets: 3925 → 3940 → 4000. Stop Loss: Below 3850. 2️⃣ SELL (Short-term Scalp) Entry: 393x – 394x or rejection at 4000. Targets: 3900 → 3884. Stop Loss: Above 3952. ⚡ Key Insights Trend bias remains bullish → Prefer long setups from strong Fibo supports. 3925 is the immediate hurdle, 4000 the ultimate psychological wall. Watch USD volatility and Fed commentary for intraday direction. 💬 What’s your take, India? Do you expect Gold to hit 4,000 this week, or will sellers defend the zone? Drop your setups 👇
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FranCis-MatrixFibo
Gold Maintains Bullish Momentum Above Uptrend SupportAnalysis: The 1-hour chart of XAU/USD shows a strong upward trendline, which has been consistently respected by price action. After a clear bullish momentum breakout around September 25th, gold has continued to post higher lows, confirming buyers’ control of the market. Currently, gold is trading at $3,878, consolidating just below the $3,924–$3,935 resistance zone. The chart suggests two possible scenarios: Continuation: If the price respects the upward trendline and breaks above the $3,924–$3,935 resistance, gold could aim for new highs, extending the bullish run. Short-Term Pullback: A minor correction to retest the trendline is possible, but as long as the trendline holds, the bullish structure remains intact. Technical Outlook: Support: $3,855 / $3,785 Resistance: $3,924 – $3,935 Trend: Strongly bullish, supported by ascending trendline Bias: Buy on dips towards the trendline, targeting a breakout above $3,935
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by DrForexPhd
Gold Hits $394x! New ATH: Fed & BoJ Drive the Rally.Hello, traders! Gold (XAU/USD) has just delivered a massive breakthrough in the Asian session, setting a New ATH around $394x after comfortably breaching that $3900 level. This strength, bhai, is getting serious support from two big monetary policy moves: Fed rate cut expectations and the likelihood of the BoJ (Bank of Japan) delaying rate hikes due to the new PM. Paisa hi paisa! Fundamentals & Technical Caution: Mind the FOMO Dual Drivers: Market sentiment is clear—the Fed is expected to cut rates two more times, and the dovish BoJ outlook only adds more fuel, creating a rock-solid foundation for Gold. Safe-Haven: The continuous US Shutdown drama and geopolitical tensions are keeping that safe-haven bid strong. FOMO Warning: The momentum is fierce, but you must avoid buying the high. Prioritize Buying on pullbacks to FVG (Fair Value Gaps) to secure a safer entry point. Discipline is key, boss. Key Price Levels: Resistance: $3954, $3963 Support: $3910, $3895, $3883, $3870 Trading Strategy (Absolute Risk Management): BUY SCALP: $3910 - $3908 SL: $3904 TPs: $3918, $3928, $3938, $3948, $3958 BUY ZONE (FVG): $3895 - $3893 SL: $3885 TPs: $3903, $3913, $3923, $3933, $3943 SELL ZONE (High Risk): $3964 - $3966 SL: $3974 TPs: $3956, $3946, $3936, $3926, $3916 Are you placing your bets on a $4000 target this week? Let me know your plan! 👇 #Gold #XAUUSD #ATH #Fed #BoJ #Shutdown #TradingView #MarketAnalysis #GoldFever
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Jeremy_NPC
LiamTrading – GOLD approaches the $4000 mark LiamTrading – GOLD approaches the $4000 mark: The upward wave continues Hello everyone, Gold continues to maintain its impressive upward momentum as the DXY only slightly increases by 0.50% and is currently at 98.21 – a signal indicating that safe-haven flows still prioritise precious metals. Currently, the technical structure on H1 shows gold is in a clear upward channel, with price reaction zones accurately identified through Fibonacci and trendline, aiming for the next major target of $4000/oz. 📊 Technical Analysis (H1) Main Trend: Strong upward, Higher High – Higher Low structure remains intact Main Support Zone: around 3890 – 3900, coinciding with Fibo 1.0 confluence + upward trendline Psychological Resistance Zone: 3955 – 3999, corresponding to Fibo extension 2.0 – 3.6 RSI is moving into the 70+ zone, reflecting strong buying force but short-term correction signs need to be observed. 🎯 Today's Trading Scenarios Buy scalping 📍 3909 – 3911 🛑 SL: 3904 🎯 TP: 3940 – 3955 – 3970 – 3990 Buy swing 📍 3888 – 3890 🛑 SL: 3882 🎯 TP: 3910 – 3925 – 3950 – 3975 – 3990 Sell scalping 📍 3956 – 3958 🛑 SL: 3964 🎯 TP: 3935 – 3910 – 3890 Sell swing 📍 3997 – 3999 🛑 SL: 4010 🎯 TP: 3975 – 3950 – 3925 🧭 Trend Analysis With the current upward force and stable technical structure, the $4000 target is entirely feasible in the short term. The preferred strategy is to BUY with the trend, watch for pullbacks to optimise entry, and avoid FOMO at the peak. Adjustments to the support zone 3890–3900 will be a beautiful opportunity to open buy positions. 💡 I will continue to update detailed reaction zones & new plans in each session. Follow me for the earliest updates on daily gold scenarios!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by LiamTradingFX
Gold Soars on FOMO – 1000-Pip Opportunity Ahead!GOLD PLAN FOR 06.10 | Captain Vincent ✳️ Hello to all traders, Today, we are not only analysing Gold (XAU/USD) from a purely technical perspective ⚙️, but also witnessing the perfect confluence between technicals and fundamental news. A bullish storm is forming, promising attractive trading opportunities. 📊 1. Technical Analysis: Sustainable Bullish Structure From a technical standpoint, the uptrend of Gold on the H1 chart is undeniable. 🔹 Break of Structure (BoS): Gold continuously breaks previous highs, indicating that buying pressure is completely dominant. Each BoS point is a clear affirmation of the strength of the uptrend. 🔹 Potential Demand Zone: After each rally, the price often takes a “pause” to accumulate. Currently, the price may adjust to the $3,883,020 - $3,911,169 zone, where the confluence between Fair Value Gap (FVG) and Bullish Order Block (Bullish OB) – creates an ideal launchpad for the next rally. 🏦 2. Fundamental Analysis: The Fire Has Been Lit If technicals show the way, then fundamental news is the fuel driving the uptrend. 🔸 US Government Shutdown: This event creates political and economic instability, causing capital to flee from risky assets. Gold – the number one safe haven – is directly benefiting as investors seek to preserve their assets. 🔸 Fed Ready to Cut Interest Rates: The market is almost certain that the Fed will cut interest rates by 0.25%. This reduces the appeal of the USD, further strengthening Gold's advantage, which is a non-yielding asset. 🔸 “Thirst” for Economic Data: The government shutdown also disrupts the release of important economic data, leaving the market lacking information and increasing uncertainty. In this environment, Gold continues to hold its safe haven role. 🎯 3. Comprehensive Trading Plan When technicals and fundamentals align, the reliability of the trading strategy is significantly enhanced. Strategy: Wait to buy (Long) when the price adjusts to the demand zone $3,883,020 - $3,905,169. Entry signals: Observe confirmation of a bullish reversal in this zone such as: Pin bar candles, engulfing Or BoS on the M15 chart Targets: Short-term: $3950 – $3990 Long-term: Target “+1000 pips” Risk management: Place Stop Loss below the Bullish OB to protect the account. 🧭 Conclusion The current market sentiment is very favourable for the Buyers: USD is under downward pressure Defensive capital flows are strongly moving into Gold The FOMO effect can stimulate an extended rally The combination of a solid technical structure and strong fundamental support is creating an almost perfect bullish picture. 👉 Be patient, stick to the plan, and await this golden opportunity. 💼 Wishing everyone an effective and victorious trading day!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CaptainVincent
Gold 1H – Liquidity Plays Between 3794 and 3918Gold on the 1H timeframe is fluctuating within a defined range after multiple ChoCH signals, with liquidity concentrated at both premium supply and discount demand. Current price action suggests engineered sweeps remain likely: upside liquidity sits near 3918–3916, while downside support aligns with 3794–3796. This dual structure sets up both tactical sell and buy plays depending on liquidity grabs. From the macro perspective, gold traders are balancing caution ahead of upcoming U.S. data releases with the backdrop of a resilient dollar and persistent geopolitical risks. These drivers reinforce intraday volatility, where engineered liquidity hunts at extremes provide clearer opportunities. ⸻ 📌 Key Structure & Liquidity Zones (1H): • 🔴 SELL GOLD 3918–3916 (SL 3925): Premium supply sweep zone. Downside targets at 3896 → 3872 → 3853. • 🟢 BUY GOLD SUPPORT 3794–3796 (SL 3788): Discount demand aligned with structural lows. Upside targets at 3819 → 3853 → 3872+. ⸻ 📊 Trading Ideas (Scenario-Based): 🔻 Sell Setup – Liquidity Grab at 3918–3916 • Entry: 3918–3916 • Stop Loss: 3925 • Take Profits: • TP1: 3896 • TP2: 3872 • TP3: 3853 🔺 Buy Setup – Discount Demand at 3794–3796 • Entry: 3794–3796 • Stop Loss: 3788 • Take Profits: • TP1: 3819 • TP2: 3853 • TP3: 3872+ ⸻ 🔑 Strategy Note Gold remains liquidity-driven and range-bound, with engineered sweeps expected at both premium highs and discount lows. Flexibility is crucial: fade rallies into the 3918 supply zone, while preparing to scale into longs if liquidity clears into the 3794 demand base.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Ryan_TitanTrader
2
Gold 1H – Will CPI Repricing Push Gold Into FVG Reversal?Gold on the 1H timeframe is reacting near 3,928 after a clean structure break and buildup toward the premium zone 3960–3958, where liquidity remains above recent highs. Market structure shows a bullish impulse leg forming, but engineered sweeps at premium supply are likely before continuation. The defined FVG buy zone around 3840–3842 marks discount territory for potential re-entry if price retraces deeper. From the macro side, gold is consolidating as traders brace for this week’s U.S. CPI data and renewed Treasury yield volatility. The dollar’s firm tone and cautious risk sentiment following stronger U.S. job figures are keeping gold capped near short-term supply. Still, geopolitical tensions and central-bank demand continue to provide underlying support, reinforcing the buy-on-dip narrative toward year-end. ________________________________________ 📌 Key Structure & Liquidity Zones (1H): • 🔴 SELL GOLD 3960–3958 (SL 3967): Premium liquidity sweep zone targeting retracement toward 3940 → 3900. • 🟢 BUY ZONE 3840–3842 (SL 3833): Discount demand and FVG mitigation aligned with higher-timeframe support. Upside targets 3860 → 3880 → 3900+. ________________________________________ 📊 Trading Ideas (Scenario-Based): 🔻 Sell Setup – Liquidity Sweep at 3960–3958 • Entry: 3960–3958 • Stop Loss: 3967 • Take Profits:  • TP1: 3940  • TP2: 3920  • TP3: 3900 🔺 Buy Setup – FVG Mitigation at 3840–3842 • Entry: 3840–3842 • Stop Loss: 3833 • Take Profits:  • TP1: 3860  • TP2: 3880  • TP3: 3900+ ________________________________________ 🔑 Strategy Note Gold remains liquidity-driven within a mid-range structure. Expect engineered sweeps into 3960–3958 before deeper pullbacks into discount demand near 3840–3842. Tactical bias favors fading rallies at premium while preparing to join the continuation move from discount FVG support if CPI-related volatility clears the liquidity pools.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Ryan_TitanTrader
Gold Price Analysis — XAU/USD (Daily)Overview: Gold has staged an impressive rally, climbing from the 3,200–3,300 area to the 3,870 region within a strong bullish structure. Price action shows higher highs and higher lows, signaling continued demand from buyers. 🚀 Technical Outlook: • Trend: Both the medium- and long-term trends remain bullish, with price above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. • Momentum: Strong upward momentum confirmed by MACD histogram expansion and RSI hovering near overbought territory (~70). • Key Levels:   ⚠️ Resistance: ~3,900 (psychological & structural level).   ✅ Support: 3,400–3,600 zone. Trading Scenarios: 1️⃣ Bullish Continuation: • Enter on pullbacks to support (3,600–3,700). • Targets: 3,950–4,000. • Use trailing stop to secure profits. 2️⃣ Rejection at Resistance (~3,900): • Look for bearish candlestick patterns (pin bar, engulfing). • Short-term correction toward 3,400–3,200. • Stop-loss above 3,920 to manage risk. 3️⃣ Breakout Play: • If price closes above 3,900 decisively with volume, expect continuation toward 4,100+. • Ideal for breakout traders with risk managed via tight SL below breakout candle. Risk Management: ⚠️ Do not risk more than 1–2% per trade. ✅ Use trailing stops to lock in gains. 💡 Accept losing trades early; capital preservation is priority. Conclusion: 🎯 Bias remains bullish while above 3,600. Traders should monitor the 3,900 level closely — a breakout could extend the rally, while rejection could trigger a corrective pullback.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDLong
by TradingshopUS
New ATH: Shutdown Fuels Gold's Seventh Straight WinHello, traders! Gold just sealed its seventh consecutive weekly gain, boss, with futures hitting a whopping $3,908.9/oz. This rally is powered by growing tension over the US Government Shutdown and the solid expectation of a Fed rate cut (97% chance in October, no less!). Fundamentals & Outlook: Pure Safe-Haven Rally Political Instability: The prolonged Shutdown is a proper bullish driver now. It's delaying key economic reports, creating huge uncertainty, and attracting big safe-haven capital flows. Rate Cut Certainty: The market is absolutely banking on a Fed rate cut, giving massive support to non-yielding Gold. Technicals & Trading Strategy: Focus on $3867 The weekly buying power is super strong. Gold is holding steady near the $3900 mark. The $3867 level is our critical line, bhai; if the price stays above it, the potential for new ATHs remains very high. Key Price Levels: Resistance: $3902, $3912, $3922, $3942 Support: $3867, $3855, $3839, $3792 Trading Strategy (Absolute Risk Management): BUY ZONE 1: $3867 - $3865 SL: $3857 TPs: $3875, $3885, $3895, $3905, $3915 BUY ZONE 2: $3839 - $3827 SL: $3824 TPs: $3847, $3857, $3867, $3877, $3887 SELL ZONE 1: $3902 - $3904 SL: $3912 TPs: $3894, $3884, $3874, $3864 SELL ZONE 2: $3942 - $3944 SL: $3952 TPs: $3934, $3924, $3914, $3904 What's your view? Will the US political drama help Gold finally break past $3900 next week? Tell me below! 👇 #Gold #XAUUSD #ATH #Shutdown #Fed #TradingView #MarketAnalysis #GoldRush
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Jeremy_NPC
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD (October 6, 2025) ________________________________________ 🔹 1. Momentum D1 Timeframe • Daily momentum is currently declining, with both lines starting to converge inside the overbought zone. • Today is a critical day: o If the daily candle closes strongly bullish, price may extend the upside for another 2–3 days. o If the daily candle closes bearish, momentum will continue to decline, suggesting the correction may extend further. ➡️ Therefore, today’s daily close will be important to determine the mid–term trend direction. H4 Timeframe • H4 momentum lines are stuck together in the overbought zone, indicating a potential reversal could happen at any moment. H1 Timeframe • H1 momentum is turning upward, but since it’s already near the overbought area, the current push may not be sustainable. ➡️ A short-term pullback is likely to occur within the next 1–2 H1 candles. ________________________________________ 🔹 2. Wave Structure D1 Timeframe • On the daily chart, price has broken above 3877, which is the second target of the yellow wave 5. • Given the strong move, this could simply be a liquidity sweep, not necessarily the end of wave 5 yet. ➡️ We need to observe the daily close to confirm whether momentum continues to weaken or stabilizes. H4 Timeframe • After a 3-wave ABC correction (in blue), the price is now moving within purple wave 5. • Based on the current price channel, two possible targets for purple wave 5 are: o 🎯 Target 1: 3923 o 🎯 Target 2: 3986 H1 Timeframe • The structure shows a 5-wave pattern (in black) inside purple wave 5. • The 0.618 projection of wave 5 has already been reached near 3926, which also aligns with the 0.382 retracement level of the H4 structure — creating a strong confluence zone suitable for a potential short setup. • If price closes decisively above 3926, it may continue to extend toward 3986. ➡️ In that case, it’s better to wait for a clear reversal signal near 3986 rather than shorting too early. ________________________________________ 🔹 3. Trading Plan 📍 Setup: • Sell Now: 3925 – 3926 • Stop Loss: 3936 • Take Profit: 3899 📌 Safer Option: Wait for a bearish H1 confirmation candle before entering the trade. ⚠️ Note: This is a potential topping phase, so it’s essential to manage positions carefully — avoid loose stop losses or unprotected exposure.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by WavePoint_FX
#Gold Long term view#Gold Long term view(5years): Gold price is creating new all time highs. We may see another 10-15% upside move in the coming months. Existing positions can hold and book some profits near the top and carry the rest. No fresh long positions are recommended at the current levels as price is nearing the top. We may see a declining phase in gold in the upcoming 5yrs as we have seen in the past from 2010-2015. Note: Kindly note that the above view is purely based on past data. Since many global factors effect the gold price, plan your investments wisely.
TVC:GOLDShort
by n99trades
Gold Trading Strategy for 06th October 2025🌟 GOLD Intraday Trading Plan 🌟 💰 Buy Setup 📈 Buy Above: the high of 15-min candle — only if price closes above $3906 🎯 Targets: 🎯 1st Target: $3915 🎯 2nd Target: $3925 🎯 3rd Target: $3935 🛡️ Stop Loss: Below $3900 (or as per your risk level) 💰 Sell Setup 📉 Sell Below: the low of 1-hour candle — only if price closes below $3870 🎯 Targets: 🎯 1st Target: $3860 🎯 2nd Target: $3848 🎯 3rd Target: $3836 🛡️ Stop Loss: Above $3878 (or as per your risk level) ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. 📜 Trading in commodities like Gold ($XAU/USD) involves high risk and may not be suitable for all investors. 📊 Always do your own analysis before taking any trade. 💡 Use proper risk management and trade at your own discretion. 💼
TVC:GOLD
by ramkkyy
XAUUSD/Gold Weekly Buy Projection (05.10.25) chartXAUUSD/Gold Weekly Buy Projection (05.10.25) chart. Here’s a clear technical summary of what your chart shows: 🔹 Overall Structure The chart projects a bullish move for XAUUSD (Gold). Title: Weekly Buy Projection – 05 Oct 2025 Main trend: Ascending continuation pattern (marked by blue upward trendlines). Current price zone: around $3,886.45. 🔹 Key Levels Support S2: around $3,838 – $3,846 Support S1: around $3,870 – $3,878 Resistance 1: around $3,900 – $3,910 Resistance 2 (New ATH): around $3,939 – $3,970 🔹 Pattern & Projections Golden Ratio (0.618 Fibonacci) formed near $3,874, signaling a retracement support. Bullish engulfing candle noted at Support S1, confirming buying interest. Possible Double Top highlighted near Resistance 1, indicating a short-term pullback risk before continuation. Fair Value Gap (FVG) exists between $3,875–$3,890, suggesting potential liquidity refill before next le
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by kripsonfx97
LiamTrading – GOLD Weekly Plan ..GOLD Weekly Plan: Prepare for a Breakthrough to a New ATH The new trading week opens with extremely complex sentiments — many traders are confused, and even the “big players” are cautious. But if you look closely at the price structure, everything becomes clear: gold is still in a sustainable uptrend. 🧠 Psychological & Trend Analysis Gold has just closed the week with a strong upward momentum, confirming the continuation of the medium-term uptrend. At this stage, “Selling at the peak” is almost a dangerous move – as each correction is shallow and quick, not allowing sellers enough time to exit. This creates a strong “fear of missing out” (FOMO) sentiment – driving funds to continue pouring in when the price hits the trendline or technical retracement zones. 📊 Technical Analysis On the H4 chart, the upward structure of gold is clearly visible following the impulse + correction box pattern (each accumulation – breakout repeats). The 3820–3830 zone continues to be the “golden retracement point” as it coincides with the medium-term uptrend line. Last week's bounce from this zone brought excellent profits for those who patiently waited. Currently, the next target for gold lies at the Fibonacci 1.618 zone – around 3980, which is also a significant psychological level where many investors might take profits. 🎯 Trading Scenario Buy setup (trend-following): Entry: 3830 Stoploss: 3815 Take Profit: 3980 Sell reaction (short-term upon reaching target): Entry: around 3980 Stoploss: 3988 TP open depending on price reaction (scalping strategy) 🔍 Conclusion Gold is still on the right growth trajectory, with short corrections merely opportunities to “accumulate”. Continue trading with the trend, patiently waiting for the price to retrace to strong confluence zones instead of FOMO at high prices. I will continue to share more details in daily updates here. Follow me to not miss the latest gold scenarios.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by LiamTradingFX
GOLD DAILY – MACRO VIEW FOR LONG-TERM GOLD Hello everyone 👋 Today is the weekend, let's review the gold movements to gain insights for the upcoming trading week. The weekly candle closed at 3,886.5 – a high level that most investors did not anticipate. The daily candle, almost fully bullish, has strongly reinforced the main bullish trend of gold in the medium and long term. 🔎 Technical View Analyzing through Fibonacci extension, the next target for gold lies at the 4,000 mark, coinciding with the Fibo 1.618 level and a significant psychological resistance zone. This is a confluence zone between technical and psychological factors, expected to have a strong reaction when the price approaches this area. The current upward trend is almost unwavering, bolstered by macro factors – US political instability is causing uncertainty for the USD. 💡 Macro View The US government shutdown is indefinite, economic data is delayed, causing market confusion. The USD is weakening, while gold becomes a safe haven. This scenario continues to reinforce the long-term upward trend of gold, especially as investors seek assets that preserve value. ⚖️ Long-term Scenarios and Strategies 1️⃣ Long-term Buy Scenario: Entry: around 3,640 – 3,650 Reason: This is a strong support area on the Volume Profile chart, where large liquidity is concentrated. When the price returns to this area, the pressure to take profits and release sell positions from trapped traders will create a strong price rebound effect. This is the most potential buying zone in the medium term. 2️⃣ Short/Medium-term Reaction Sell Scenario: Entry: around 4,000 Reason: This is a confluence resistance zone of technical (Fibo 1.618) and psychological (round number) factors. Prioritize short-term reaction sells, capturing the pullback if gold hits the peak. ⚠️ Risk Management Note Trading on larger time frames requires good capital and management skills, as the stop-loss range is higher compared to shorter frames. Do not enter trades too early without confirmation signals from the price zone. Always clearly define the time frame and profit expectations before entering a trade. 📈 Summary: The long-term trend of gold remains upward, with a medium-term target towards $4,000. Buying around 3,640 is an attractive price zone for accumulating long-term positions. Sell reactions around 4,000 if there are clear reversal signals. 👉 If you want to follow daily updated scenarios, please follow me
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Steven-GoldTrading
XAU/USD Near Record Highs: Key Data AheadGold (XAU/USD) Technical Outlook – October 3, 2025 1. Macro & News Context Gold is holding near record highs, heading for its seventh consecutive weekly gain, supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue cutting rates and by concerns around the ongoing U.S. government shutdown. Spot prices have recently tested the ₹3,890–3,900 region and are now consolidating around ₹3,860. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) – Typically scheduled for 18:00 IST on the first Friday of the month, the September jobs report is likely to be delayed due to the U.S. government shutdown. Key event to watch today: ISM Services PMI (September) will be released at 19:30 IST. Since ISM data is privately produced, it will be published regardless of the shutdown and may serve as the main volatility catalyst in today’s U.S. session. 【ISM】 Labor market signals: Challenger job cut data showed lower layoffs in September, but planned hiring at the lowest level since 2009, reinforcing a softer employment backdrop. Combined with the Fed’s recent 25 bps rate cut (to 4.00%–4.25%), this continues to support the bullish gold narrative. USD trend: The dollar has weakened broadly this week, aligning with market bets on further monetary easing. This backdrop provides an additional tailwind for gold. 2. Technical Landscape (H1 Chart) The attached chart highlights key technical zones and a completed Harmonic XABCD pattern on the 1H timeframe: Support levels: Near-term: ₹3,844–3,841 Deeper: ₹3,827 (intraday pivot), ₹3,792 (strong low) Strategic: ₹3,764–3,770 (Bullish Order Block) Resistance levels: Immediate: ₹3,865 Strong supply: ₹3,880–3,890 (Bearish Order Block) Extended target: ₹3,930–3,940 (Sell Scalping | Fibo zone) Momentum: After bouncing from point D of the harmonic structure, gold has been forming higher lows (HL). Price currently sits above the longer-term moving average and is testing the shorter-term average, suggesting a constructive short-term bias as long as supports hold. 3. Trade Scenarios Scenario 1 – Buy-the-dip (preferred bias) Entry zone: ₹3,844–3,841 Stop loss: Below ₹3,827 (safer: below ₹3,792) Targets: ₹3,865 (first take-profit) ₹3,880–3,890 (major supply) Stretch: ₹3,930–3,940 Rationale: Higher low formation, bullish macro backdrop, aligned with strong weekly uptrend. Scenario 2 – Countertrend short at resistance Trigger zone: ₹3,880–3,890 (Bearish OB) Confirmation: Rejection candles (H15–H1) such as wicks, engulfing, or failed breakout. Stop loss: Above ₹3,895–3,900 (or above ₹3,945 if price spikes into the ₹3,930–3,940 fib zone). Targets: ₹3,865 → ₹3,844 → ₹3,827 Rationale: Potential liquidity sweep ahead of ISM, with profit-taking likely near supply zones. Scenario 3 – Breakdown through support Trigger: 1H close below ₹3,841 Path: ₹3,827 → ₹3,792 (Strong Low) → ₹3,764–3,770 (Bullish OB) Rationale: Loss of intraday structure would flip bias short until major demand zones. 4. How to Trade Around Today’s Data If NFP is indeed delayed, the 18:00 IST slot may bring limited volatility. Focus instead on the ISM Services PMI at 19:30 IST, which could trigger sharp swings in both USD and gold. Adjust position sizing: Expect spread widening and slippage around the release. Reduce leverage or scale into positions. 5. Risk Management Limit risk per trade to 0.5–1% of account equity. Avoid chasing price once levels are tested; wait for H15–H1 candle closes for confirmation. Monitor the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and Treasury yields – further dollar weakness would reinforce bullish gold setups. 🔑 Key Takeaway Gold remains structurally bullish in the broader trend, with immediate support at ₹3,841–3,844 critical to maintain upside momentum. Watch for reactions around ₹3,880–3,890 and ₹3,930–3,940. With NFP possibly delayed, the ISM Services PMI at 19:30 IST will be today’s most important catalyst for directional moves.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CaptainVincent
GOLD@ 3890 : Bubble Peak or Just a Pit-Stop?Pullback vs. Correction The 100th-Idea Deep Dive !! Gold has moved almost 88% in the last two years to new records. The main drivers are falling real yield expectations with an easing bias, persistent geopolitical risk, record central bank buying and the 2025 rebound in ETF demand. Geopolitics is shifting as Washington pushes for a Gaza ceasefire. Headlines talk about partial acceptance and ultimatums but nothing is done yet. The war premium can fade step by step though headline shocks will still remain. Key levels:- Resistance 3890–4000 Pullback zone 3640–3650 (5%) Correction zone 3475–3480 (11%) Weekly RSI stretched into high 70s and 80s → risk of mean reversion before any bigger change. Macro gears:- Real yields and the dollar:- Lower real yields = higher gold. That is the key lever. As rate cuts and softer real rates were priced into 2025, gold repriced hard. Central bank sponsorship:- Official demand has been consistent three years in a row. 2022 at 1082t, 2023 at 1037t, 2024 at 1045t. This is rare in modern data and explains why dips are shallow. ETF flows:- After outflows in 2024, 2025 turned. Three straight months of inflows into August, strongest since 2020, YTD around 588t. Pure fuel ✨ Geopolitics & the premium:- From 2023 to 2025 Middle East risk kept term premia elevated. Now Gaza peace talks open a path for that premium to fade. But timelines and enforcement are unclear. Strikes still came even with peace headlines. Means the bleed can be gradual but headline spikes remain.. Pullback or true correction:- 3890–4000 is the confluence zone. Psychological milestone + vertical extension after 88% impulse. Bubble behavior meets supply. Level 1 at 3640 → about -5% pullback. If bids hold, trend resumes. Level 2 at 3470→ -10 to -12% wash into prior shelf. Would be first real reset in two years. Weekly momentum overbought. Phases like this don’t end instantly but forward returns improve after reset. Flows @ CBs rarely chase tops, they buy weakness across months. That softens drawdowns. ETFs are flighty. Peace plus firmer yields can stall inflows. Any Fed pivot or growth wobble can flip them back fast. Possible future paths :- Continuation bubble :- Break 3900 → 4050–4200 Triggers dovish Fed, softer yields, failed peace, ETF flows Tactic = only add above 3900 on daily/weekly close. No chasing wicks. Shallow pullback :-Tag 3630–3660 then rotate Triggers peace holds, modestly firm yields, demand returns Tactic = scale in near 3640–3650 if H4 shows higher low + reclaim POC. First TP 3780–3820. True correction :- flush 3520–3460 Triggers Gaza settlement + real yields higher + ETF stall Tactic = let it wash. Look for capitulation + basing 3480–3460. Best R:R after failed bounce and reclaim. Levels & invalidation:- Bull continuation pivot 3890–3900. Opens 4050–4200. Pullback buy zone 3630(Hvz)–3650 with confirmation. Invalidation H4 <3600. Correction buy zone 3480 ±20 after basing. Invalidation weekly <3420 → opens 3300–3350. If flat → stagger entries and size carefully. If long from lower → trail under last daily HL, book partial 3880–3950. Surprise risk (Imp) ETF squeeze higher – inflows still not at 2020 peak → late cycle melt-up possible. Policy shock – faster cuts or fiscal noise sink yields = blow-off. Strong data → pop in yields = sharp air pocket. Geopolitical whipsaw – peace unravels → $50–100 spike in thin tape!! Bottom line:- This is a two year vertical impulse meeting macro reality at 3890. Level 1 = 3640–3650 pullback line. Level 2 = 3480 correction line. Until weekly breaks, dips are still opportunities not obituaries. But only with structure. No blind catching this high up. Bubbles don’t end quietly – great trends reset then go again ✨ Fade euphoria into 39xx if momentum stalls. Buy fear into 348x if the market finally delivers the reset it owes. Trade safe ⚡ Sparkrlight ♾️✨⚡
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
by sparkrlight
1
Trading Discipline – The Defining Edge of Professional TradersIn Forex and Gold trading, there is one truth every trader eventually learns: discipline matters more than strategy. A simple system executed with discipline can deliver consistent results. A brilliant system without discipline will collapse under pressure. 🧠 Stop-loss & Take-profit – Your Survival Tools Stop-loss: Not surrender, but capital protection. Take-profit: Not prediction, but securing gains before greed erodes them. 👉 Rule of pros: Set SL/TP before entering a trade – and never move them out of fear or hope. 📊 Case Study: Discipline vs Emotion Undisciplined trader: Moves stop-loss further when price goes against him. Small loss turns into account damage. Disciplined trader: Keeps stop-loss intact, loses 1%. Over 20 trades, system edge delivers net profits. ➡️ Lose small to win big. 🚀 Habits That Build Discipline Have a trading plan: Entry rules – SL – TP – risk – time frame. Use alerts: Reduce stress, stop staring at charts. Walk away after entry: Don’t let emotions interfere. Fixed risk: 1–2% per trade, no exceptions. Keep a trading journal: Track not only results but emotions behind decisions. 🏆 Why Discipline Separates Pros from Amateurs Amateurs let the market control them. Professionals control themselves. In the long run, success doesn’t come from one “perfect trade” but from hundreds of disciplined executions. 📈 Conclusion The market is uncontrollable. But you can control yourself. Discipline is the edge that: Protects your capital. Stabilizes your mindset. Turns strategy into consistent results. 💡 Community Question for TradingView: 👉 “Have you ever broken your stop-loss or take-profit rules? What did it teach you about discipline?”
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by MMFlowTrading
Intraday Scalping Tips1. Understanding the Scalping Concept Scalping is different from traditional intraday trading. While intraday traders may hold positions for several hours, scalpers aim to profit from very small price fluctuations that occur over minutes—or even seconds. Key principles include: High Trade Frequency: Scalpers often make dozens of trades in a single day. Small Gains: Each trade typically targets 0.1–0.5% profit. Minimal Exposure: Trades are closed quickly to avoid major market risks. Scalping is particularly effective in highly liquid markets like Nifty, Bank Nifty, or major blue-chip stocks where order execution is smooth and spreads are low. 2. Choosing the Right Stocks or Instruments Not all stocks are suitable for scalping. Selecting the right instruments is critical for consistent profits. Key considerations include: Liquidity: Highly traded stocks allow quick entry and exit. Volatility: Moderate volatility provides enough price movement for scalping without excessive risk. Tight Spreads: Stocks with narrow bid-ask spreads reduce transaction costs. Market Depth: Strong support and resistance levels make prediction of price action more reliable. Popular choices for scalpers in India include Nifty, Bank Nifty, HDFC Bank, Reliance, and Infosys, as they provide both liquidity and predictable movement patterns. 3. Time Frame Selection and Chart Analysis Time frame selection is critical in scalping since trades are short-lived: 1-Minute and 5-Minute Charts: Most scalpers rely on very short time frames for identifying entry and exit points. Tick Charts: Some traders use tick charts to focus on the number of trades instead of time intervals, offering precision in fast markets. Indicators: Common indicators include: Moving Averages: For trend confirmation. Relative Strength Index (RSI): To spot overbought/oversold conditions. Volume Indicators: Confirm breakout strength and liquidity. Chart patterns like flags, pennants, and micro-trends are also useful for short-term trade setups. 4. Setting Precise Entry and Exit Points Successful scalping relies on strict entry and exit discipline: Entry Rules: Enter trades when technical indicators align (e.g., price breaks a micro-resistance on high volume). Exit Rules: Always set a pre-determined profit target (e.g., 0.2–0.5%) to avoid greed. Stop-Loss Discipline: A tight stop-loss (0.1–0.3% below entry price) prevents small losses from becoming large. Risk-Reward Ratio: Even for small profits, maintain a risk-reward ratio that ensures overall profitability. Automation tools like bracket orders in NSE allow traders to simultaneously set stop-loss and target levels. 5. Capital Management and Trade Sizing Proper capital management is crucial to survive in high-frequency scalping: Small Position Sizes: Avoid risking too much on a single trade. Leverage Management: Use leverage cautiously; while it magnifies profits, it also amplifies losses. Diversification: Spread trades across multiple instruments to reduce concentration risk. Daily Loss Limits: Decide beforehand how much you can lose in a day and stick to it—emotional control is key. Even small profits can accumulate when losses are strictly controlled. 6. Using Technology for Speed and Accuracy Scalping is a speed-driven strategy, making technology a critical factor: Direct Market Access (DMA): Enables faster order execution compared to traditional brokers. Low Latency Trading Platforms: Platforms like Zerodha Kite, Upstox Pro, and Interactive Brokers help reduce slippage. Hotkeys and Advanced Orders: Pre-set hotkeys speed up entries and exits. Real-Time Data Feeds: Access to live market data is essential for micro-trend identification. Automated scripts and algorithmic tools can also be employed to execute scalping strategies without hesitation. 7. Psychological Discipline and Emotional Control Scalping is mentally demanding due to rapid decision-making: Avoid Overtrading: Even if setups are frequent, wait for high-probability signals. Embrace Small Wins: Focus on cumulative gains rather than single trades. Detach from Emotions: Fear and greed can destroy scalping strategies in seconds. Routine and Focus: A disciplined pre-market routine enhances performance. Mental fatigue can lead to poor execution, so breaks and mental preparation are crucial. 8. Continuous Learning and Strategy Adaptation Markets are dynamic, and scalping strategies must evolve: Review Trades Daily: Maintain a trade journal to track setups, wins, and losses. Backtesting: Test strategies on historical data to identify strengths and weaknesses. Adapt to Market Conditions: Scalping in trending markets differs from range-bound markets. Stay Updated: Economic events, corporate news, and global market movements can drastically affect intraday behavior. Continuous refinement ensures long-term profitability and helps scalpers stay ahead of changing conditions. Conclusion Intraday scalping is a high-speed, high-discipline trading approach that rewards precision, strategy, and emotional control. Success depends on selecting the right instruments, leveraging technology, maintaining strict risk management, and continuously learning from market behavior. While scalping can offer consistent profits, it is not suitable for everyone due to its demanding nature. Traders who combine discipline with strategic execution and adaptive methods can use scalping to capitalize on micro-movements in the market and achieve steady gains over time.
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by TechnicalExpress
2
Gold Outlook: Eyeing $4,000 – Fibo Expansion Zones in PlayGold continues to benefit from safe-haven demand as political risks in Washington and mixed U.S. data keep investors cautious. The metal is trading inside a clear bullish channel, with Fibonacci projections suggesting further upside before any major correction. 📊 Technical Deep Dive – H4 Structure 🔹 Fibonacci Confluence The current rally respects 0.618 retracement at $3,820 and 0.786 retracement near $3,872, confirming algorithmic order flow. Next expansion points are sitting at Fibo 1.5 – 1.618 ($3,995 – $4,003), a major liquidity target where reactions are likely. 🔹 Liquidity Pockets $3,820 – $3,828: Historical demand block + Fibo 0.618, strong buy reaction zone. $3,860 – $3,872: Active reaction layer, intraday support if retested. $3,995 – $4,003: Key sell reaction zone, a liquidity grab area before possible retracement. 🔹 Candle & Flow Breakout candles show strong momentum, pushing price toward untested liquidity. However, multiple tests of $3,895 signal distribution pressure ahead of the $4,000 test. 🎯 Trade Playbook 🟢 Bullish Setup (Main Play) Entry: $3,860 – $3,872 Targets: $3,895 → $3,995 → $4,003 Stop: Below $3,850 🔵 Deep Buy Setup (Aggressive) Entry: $3,820 – $3,828 Targets: $3,872 → $3,895 Stop: Below $3,808 🔴 Countertrend Short (Scalp) Entry: $3,995 – $4,003 Targets: $3,970 → $3,950 Stop: Above $4,010 ⚡ Key Insights Watch for a $4,000 liquidity sweep – could trigger either breakout continuation or sharp pullback. If $3,860 support fails, deeper correction into $3,820 is expected before next rally. H4 close above $3,895 strengthens bullish bias toward $4,003+. 📌 Question for traders: Will Gold break $4,000 and run, or is this a setup for a liquidity trap before correction? Share your view 👇
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FranCis-MatrixFibo
Gold Correction: Fed Warning vs. Massive Safe-Haven Flows Hello, traders! Gold pulled back to $3,845.78/oz after Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan called for caution regarding further rate cuts. Fundamentals: Fed Warns, But the Buying Wave is Unstoppable The market stands at a crossroads: Downward Pressure: The caution signal from Fed's Logan. Upward Momentum: Government shutdown (increases instability, delays jobs report), weak private sector jobs data (down 32k), and SPDR Gold Trust ETF holdings rising to the highest level since 2022. Conclusion: Political instability and weak economic data continue to reinforce the likelihood of a Fed rate cut. Massive safe-haven capital is flowing into Gold. Technical Analysis & Strategy Gold retreated to the FIBO 0.618 - 0.5 zone, indicating a healthy technical correction after the sharp rally. Priority remains Buy if the price holds above $3861. Be cautious of Stop Loss hunting. Resistance: $3870, $3884, $3894 Support: $3855, $3833, $3798 Trading Strategy (Tight SL): BUY SCALP: $3838 - $3836 / SL: $3832 / TP: $3846 - $3857 BUY ZONE: $3798 - $3796 / SL: $3788 / TP: $3816 - $3836 SELL ZONE: $3888 - $3890 / SL: $3898 / TP: $3870 - $3850 Do you think the Fed's warning is strong enough to reverse this trend? 👇 #Gold #XAUUSD #Fed #GovernmentShutdown #TradingView #PhânTíchVàng #ETF
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Jeremy_NPC
XAUUSD – Price Channel Rising Towards 4000 USD Next Week Hello Traders, Every day I share scenarios for you to refer to and build your own strategy. And here is the perspective for next week – as gold is in a sustainable uptrend, approaching the psychological mark of 4000 USD. Technical Perspective On the H4 frame, gold continues to move within a clear upward price channel. Every time the price touches the support trendline, a strong rebound reaction appears, indicating that buying pressure still dominates. This price channel has remained stable for many weeks, providing a basis for us to prioritise buying in line with the trend. The target of 4000 USD is not far away, especially when the fundamental context continues to support the upward trend. Fundamental Context The market is expecting the Fed to continue cutting interest rates in October, creating momentum for gold. Current US financial-economic news is limited, as the US Government remains shut down. Geopolitical factors have somewhat cooled down, but gold still holds its position as an important safe-haven asset. Trading Scenario 1. Buy (main priority): Entry: 3860 – 3865 (at the rising trendline). TP: 3960 – 4000. SL: manage below the trendline. 2. Sell (backup if the channel breaks): Condition: 3853 is breached. At that point, a new trend will form and the Sell scenario will be activated. Conclusion Main trend: Buy in line with the rising channel, aiming for 4000 USD next week. Sell should only be considered if there is confirmation of a break below 3853. The market is in a critical phase, so be patient and wait for a good entry point to trade safely and effectively.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by BrianLionCapital