Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD July 10, 2025🌀 Elliott Wave Structure
On the H4 timeframe, price has returned to test the upper boundary of the converging triangle – currently acting as dynamic resistance. Based on the current wave count, wave e (purple) may have completed at the 3279 low, and price is potentially starting a breakout move.
👉 A confirmed breakout above the triangle would validate the end of the abcde correction and mark the beginning of a new upward trend.
🔋 Momentum Analysis
D1 timeframe: As forecasted yesterday, momentum is entering oversold territory and showing early signs of a reversal. This suggests that an upward trend could dominate over the next 5 days.
H4 timeframe: The two momentum lines are sticking together, indicating a weakening upward drive. A minor pullback may be needed before the next leg up. Key nearby resistance levels to watch are 3330 and 3342.
🎯 Key Price Levels & Validation Zones
The following support zones are crucial for identifying potential entries:
Support Zone 1: 3306 – 3308
Support Zone 2: 3294 – 3297
‼️ Important: A break below 3294 would invalidate the current wave structure, and a new count would be required.
📌 Trade Plan
Scenario 1 – Buy at higher support:
Buy Zone: 3308 – 3306
SL: 3303
TP1: 3342
TP2: 3366
TP3: 3390
Scenario 2 – Buy at deeper support (if stronger correction occurs):
Buy Zone: 3297 – 3294
SL: 3287
TP1: 3342
TP2: 3366
TP3: 3390
Scenario 3 – Safer option (breakout confirmation):
Wait for a breakout above the triangle, then enter on the retest (around 3325–3330)
SL: Based on structure formed during the retest
TP range: 3366 – 3390
📌 Preferred strategy: Wait for H4 to reach oversold or wait for a confirmed breakout and retest to enter safely in alignment with the new uptrend.
GOLD.F trade ideas
Gold Finds Support as Tariff Tensions RiseHello everyone! What’s your take on XAUUSD today?
OANDA:XAUUSD is showing a mild recovery, currently trading around $3,323, gaining over 100 pips on the day. Despite this bounce, the short-term structure still leans in favour of the bears.
On July 9th, President Biden announced a 50% tariff on copper and a projected 200% tariff on pharmaceuticals, following earlier notices of 25–40% tariffs imposed on 14 countries including Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Laos, and Malaysia.
This escalation has led to a sharp rise in international copper prices and reignited fears of global inflation, supply chain disruptions, and slower economic growth. As consumers cut back and companies face contract renegotiations, financial risk is spreading across global markets.
In this climate, investors are returning to gold as a safe haven, seeking capital protection in anticipation of broader market instability.
📈 Outlook: Gold prices may continue to rally in the short term if the U.S. unveils further tariff measures or reveals new negotiation drafts in the coming days.
Gold Update - July 10th, 2025Yesterday we have seen breakdown below Monday's low , but bulls again stepped in at the lower levels and pushed gold back above 3300 by the daily close. This was actually a really encouraging sign that buyers are still willing to defend this level.Things are looking a bit better now. Gold is trading above the weekly pivot, which is a positive shift from yesterday's weakness.
What's in the way:
The immediate challenge is that dynamic trendline you can see on the chart
Bulls need to break through this first ....
After that, the next big test is around 3340 this is a high volume area where we've seen plenty of action before.
old is basically stuck in a range between 3280-85 on the bottom and 3335-40 on the top. Right now, there's no clear direction.
We need a decisive break from this range. Until then, we're just watching price bounce between these levels without any real commitment from either buyers or sellers.
XAUUSD – Gold Maintains Bullish Momentum Amid Trade TensionsGold continues to respect its long-term ascending trendline that started in September 2024. After a corrective move from the $3,450 resistance zone, price has just retested the trendline near $3,060 and bounced strongly — a clear sign that buyers still control the bullish structure.
Fundamentally, gold is supported by two major factors:
The U.S.–14-nation trade conflict, with a tariff deadline set for August 1st, is fueling risk-off sentiment and driving safe-haven demand — pushing gold above $3,300.
The global de-dollarization trend and over $38 billion flowing into gold ETFs in H1 2025 are strengthening gold’s role as a USD alternative.
Looking ahead: If XAUUSD holds above the $3,060 support zone, it may head toward $3,211 and possibly $3,350. The bullish outlook remains intact as long as the trendline is respected.
Gold Trading Strategy for 10th July 2025📈 Gold (XAU/USD) Trade Setup – Strategy Based on 1-Hour Candle Breakout
🔹 Buy Setup (Bullish Breakout Strategy)
Entry Condition: Buy above the high of a 1-hour candle only if it closes above $3,323.
Buy Trigger Level: $3,323+
Targets:
🎯 Target 1: $3,329
🎯 Target 2: $3,342
🎯 Target 3: $3,355
Stop Loss: Place a stop loss just below the breakout candle low or a recent support level (suggested: around $3,317 or as per your risk tolerance).
🔻 Sell Setup (Bearish Breakdown Strategy)
Entry Condition: Sell below the low of a 1-hour candle only if it closes below $3,296.
Sell Trigger Level: $3,296-
Targets:
🎯 Target 1: $3,285
🎯 Target 2: $3,272
🎯 Target 3: $3,261
🎯 Target 4: $3,250
Stop Loss: Place a stop loss just above the breakdown candle high or a recent resistance level (suggested: around $3,302 or per your risk tolerance).
⚠️ Important Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in commodities like gold involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always consult with your financial advisor and use proper risk management. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Selling pressure, gold downtrendPlan XAU day: 09 July 2025
Related Information:!!!
Gold (XAU/USD) continues to extend its decline on Wednesday for a second consecutive session, as the US Dollar (USD) and US Treasury yields strengthen ahead of the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has climbed to a two-week high, exerting downward pressure on XAU/USD, which has fallen below the $3,300 level at the time of writing.
The forthcoming release of the FOMC Minutes from the June meeting is anticipated to provide insight into the Federal Reserve’s internal discussions regarding the future course of monetary policy.
In June, the central bank chose to maintain its benchmark interest rate within the 4.25% to 4.50% range, citing continued labor market resilience and persistent inflationary pressures.
personal opinion:!!!
Gold price is in the accumulation zone below 3300, big selling pressure. Pay attention to selling gold according to the trend line 3294
Important price zone to consider : !!!
support zone point: 3274; 3252 zone
Sustainable trading to beat the market
Gold drops to $3,282 as bears take control below $3,300Gold Bulls lose grip as $3300 psychological handle fails to hold as support.
Strong selling pressure forces Gold to drop to $3282
Bounce back off the lows lacked conviction as relief rally loses steam at $3310
Any resumed rebound attempt faces strategic hurdle at $3307-$3310
Rejection from resistance calls for yet another retest of $3282-$3278-$3273 where buyers may show some interest if price action shows buyers signatures.
Bulls need to clear through immediate hurdle $3300 psychological zone followed by next important resistance $3307 and $3310 which stopped yesterday's rebound attempts. Strong break and Day/Week close above $3321 will further confirm return of bulls.
Markets will closely monitor upcoming FOMC meeting minutes for some clues on macro factors and potential measures, if any.
Is a Pullback Coming or Will the Bulls Continue?Gold Faces Resistance at 3300 – Is a Pullback Coming or Will the Bulls Continue?
Market Overview: USD Gains Pressure Gold as Trade Deals Unfold
Gold has been under pressure recently due to the strong recovery of the US dollar. Positive developments in global trade talks and agreements between major nations, including the US, have been a key driver for the USD, which in turn has weighed on gold.
US inflation data continues to show signs of easing, providing the Fed more room to hold off on rate hikes, strengthening the USD.
FOMC meeting minutes due this week will provide further insight into the Fed’s approach to interest rates.
With geopolitical tensions easing and trade deals stabilizing, the demand for safe-haven assets like gold is slightly reduced.
In the short-term, the market is testing crucial levels, and while gold remains bullish in the long run, the current market conditions suggest potential for a pullback before further upside.
Technical Analysis: Gold in a Range-Bound Market
Looking at the H1 timeframe, gold has formed a clear downward channel between 3360 and 3290, which could signal further corrective action if the price remains within this range. If gold fails to break above resistance at 3360, a dip to 3250 might occur, especially if the USD strength continues to put pressure on gold.
However, waiting for confirmation patterns before entering a trade is key. False breakouts can be a risk when price moves quickly through key levels without sustaining momentum.
Buy Bias in Short-Term with Caution on Bearish Moves
Given the current market structure, there is more room for buy opportunities than for selling at the moment. Watch out for a potential bounce back in the 3320-3325 region as gold might test these levels before continuing its rise. The rejection wick on yesterday's D1 candle shows that the sellers are losing control, and buying pressure is starting to build again.
In the M30 chart, there's a continuation pattern forming around the 16-14 zone, which could be an ideal place to enter a buy position if it holds.
Resistance and Support Levels:
Key Resistance Levels: 3302 – 3310 – 3324 – 3335 – 3361
Key Support Levels: 3275 – 3259 – 3248
Trading Strategy – Buy and Sell Zones
BUY ZONE:
3250 – 3248
Stop Loss: 3244
Take Profit: 3254 → 3258 → 3262 → 3266 → 3270 → 3280 → ????
SELL SCALP:
3303 – 3305
Stop Loss: 3310
Take Profit: 3298 → 3294 → 3290 → 3286 → 3280 → 3270 → 3260
SELL ZONE:
3334 – 3336
Stop Loss: 3340
Take Profit: 3330 → 3326 → 3320 → 3315 → 3310 → 3305 → 3300 → ????
Key Updates to Watch: FOMC and Trade Policy News
With FOMC minutes due and trade policy developments on the horizon, it’s crucial to stay alert for any shifts in market sentiment. Ensure you stick to TP/SL levels to protect your account from any unexpected volatility.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – SELL TRADE SETUP #3GOLD (XAU/USD) – SELL TRADE SETUP #3
🕒 Timeframe: 1H
📅 Date: July 9, 2025
📉 Trade Parameters:
Sell Entry Zone: 3,292 – 3,293 USD/oz
Stop Loss (SL): 3,301 USD
Take Profit (TP): 3,252 USD
📊 Technical Rationale:
Price is retracing into a short-term resistance zone around 3,292 – 3,293, aligning with a downtrend structure and minor descending trendline.
This zone also overlaps with moving average resistance, increasing confluence.
Volume on the retracement is weakening, indicating limited buying pressure.
If price fails to break above 3,301, a continuation to the downside toward 3,252 is likely.
Fl we here and X!
Gold at a Crossroads – Rebound or Breakdown?Gold just faced a sharp sell-off as optimism surged around a potential trade truce. After President Trump announced a 25% tariff on Japan and South Korea, the deadline was surprisingly pushed to August 1st, giving countries room to negotiate. That pause eased market fears and triggered a short-term risk-on sentiment.
But the real pressure came from a stronger US Dollar and 10-year Treasury yields hitting a two-week high – a deadly combo for gold, which offers no yield. The shift in capital flow toward safer, interest-bearing assets pushed gold further into the red.
Now, all eyes are on the upcoming Fed minutes and speeches from key officials this week. If the tone is hawkish, gold could lose further ground. But a dovish hint might spark a bounce from the $3,290 support zone.
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD July 9, 2025
🔻 Momentum Analysis
D1 timeframe: Momentum is approaching the oversold zone and may reverse upwards today or tomorrow.
H4 timeframe: Momentum is already in the oversold zone. The two momentum lines are converging, signaling weakening downward pressure and a potential reversal.
🌀 Elliott Wave Structure
The price level around 3318 (previous buy zone) failed to hold, despite a ~100-pip bounce before continuing to decline.
Currently, price is nearing the lower boundary of a contracting triangle – a typical abcde corrective pattern.
Based on the current wave structure:
Wave d (purple) appears to be complete.
Price is now likely forming wave e, expected to end near 3279, which coincides with the triangle’s bottom support.
If the pattern holds, a strong breakout above the upper triangle boundary is expected once wave e completes.
However, note: the formation of a triangle during a corrective wave often signals that the uptrend is nearing its end in the longer term.
📌 Trading Plan
Given the complex 3-wave structure typical of triangles, risk is elevated, so:
Trade with reduced position size, or
Preferably wait for a confirmed breakout above the triangle before entering.
Suggested Trade Setup:
✅ Buy Zone: 3280 – 3277
❌ Stop Loss: 3270
🎯 Take Profits:
TP1: 3309
TP2: 3342
TP3: 3390
(XAU/USD) 3H Chart – Bearish Reversal Setup from Resistance Zone1. Entry Point (Sell):
Marked at 3,335.03
This is a key resistance level where price is expected to reverse downward.
2. Stop Loss:
Placed above at 3,354.88
This acts as a protection level in case the trade goes against the direction.
3. Take Profit Targets (EA Target Points):
TP1 (Downside): 3,245.65
TP2 (Upside - if Stop Loss is hit): 3,455.76 (in case of reversal or long position)
4. Price Action Observation:
Price is currently around 3,320.56, climbing back toward the entry zone.
The red 50-period moving average (EMA) and blue 200-period MA show convergence, often preceding volatility.
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📉 Bearish Scenario (Main Setup)
Sell Bias is expected from the 3,335 region.
If price respects the resistance zone and breaks down again, the target is 3,245.65, yielding approximately 90-point move.
This is a risk-reward favorable setup, with:
Risk: ~20 points
Reward: ~90 points
RRR ≈ 1:4.5
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⚠️ Bullish Invalidity (Stop Loss Hit)
If the price breaks and closes above 3,354.88, it invalidates the bearish setup.
Then, the market may shift towards targeting 3,455.76 — about 100 points to the upside.
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🔧 Technical Factors Supporting the Setup
Supply zone marked by the purple box around the entry.
Trend previously bearish — recent upward move may just be a retracement.
Confluence with MAs: Price is testing MAs — rejection here would add bearish confirmation.
---
✅ Summary of Trade Setup
Element Value
Entry 3,335.03
Stop Loss 3,354.88
Take Profit 3,245.65
Alt Target 3,455.76 (if SL hit)
Risk-Reward ~1:4.5
Bias Bearish (Sell Setup)
7.9 Gold Analysis7.9 Gold Analysis
I. Market Overview
Gold price fell sharply: On July 8, spot gold plummeted by more than 1%, hitting a low of $3287.06/ounce (a new low in a week), and closed at $3301.53. The main reasons include trade optimism (tariff extension) weakening safe-haven demand, a stronger dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields.
II. Analysis of core influencing factors
1. Trade policy and risk aversion
The Trump administration postponed the effective date of tariffs from July 9 to August 1, and imposed tariffs on 14 countries (up to 70%), but stated that negotiations with the EU and China were "progressing smoothly", and market expectations for easing trade frictions increased, weakening the safe-haven appeal of gold.
Japan and South Korea responded quickly to the negotiations, further boosting risk appetite.
2. Suppression of the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields
The U.S. dollar index surged to 97.83 (a one-week high), and non-U.S. currencies were under pressure (such as the yen depreciating due to the threat of tariffs on Japan).
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.435% (a two-week high), increasing the holding cost of interest-free gold.
3. Inflation and Fed policy game
Tariff policies (such as a 50% tariff on copper) may push up inflation, which is good for inflation-resistant gold in the long run; but in the short term, it may delay the Fed's interest rate cuts and suppress gold prices.
Market expectations: A 50 basis point interest rate cut by the end of 2025 (starting in October), focusing on the signals released by the Fed's meeting minutes and officials' speeches.
3. Technical analysis
Daily level
Trend: After being blocked at the high of $3,365 on July 3, it has fluctuated downward, and the moving average system has turned downward to suppress it, which is weak in the short term.
4-hour level
It is in a downward channel, and the low of 3,287 has stabilized but no reversal signal has been formed. MACD crosses the zero axis, and RSI is below 50, and the short side is dominant.
4. Trading strategy suggestions
Short-term:
Short order: short at highs in the 3305-3315 range, stop loss at 3320, target at 3290.
Long order: try long with a light position in the 3290-3285 range, stop loss at 3280, target at 3300-3310.
Medium-long term:
Wait for opportunities to deploy in batches at 3275/3265/3255, long-term target at 3400+. (Trump criticized Powell for stepping down, implying that the Fed’s meeting minutes will not cut interest rates, and it is worth waiting patiently.)
5. Today’s focus events
US EIA crude oil inventory linked to energy market sentiment
Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting minutes, interest rate cut path signal (core focus)
Trading must be cautious and control risks! I wish you a smooth transaction!
Gold Price Action Update - July 9th, 2025We have seen that gold retested crucial 3300 support level once again yesterday and managed to bounce back, closing above it by day's end. This suggesting that the bulls were still in control.
but again in eary asian session today Gold broke below 3300 and is now trading under Monday's low(3295-96).This is definitely a shift in momentum that we need to watch carefully.
If we stay below Monday's low (3295-96) and can't reclaim the weekly pivot, more downside pressure possible,
The next logical target /support would be the weekly S1 at 3268.
For any bullish recovery, we NEED to reclaim that weekly pivot at 3316,and 3345 our next major hurdle to overcome,while today's action looks bearish on the shorter timeframes, the daily close is still favoring the bulls for now. This creates an interesting dynamic where we're seeing some short-term weakness within what's still technically a bullish structure.
Gold Trading Strategy for 9th July 2025📈 GOLD INTRADAY TRADE SETUP
✨ High-Probability Levels Based on Price Action ✨
🟢 Buy Setup – Breakout Trade
Entry: Buy above the high of the 1-hour candle with a strong close above ₹3318
Targets:
🎯 T1: ₹3329
🎯 T2: ₹3342
🎯 T3: ₹3355
Stop Loss: Below ₹3308 (adjust based on risk appetite)
Reason: Bullish momentum expected above ₹3318 with confirmation from higher time frame close. Ideal for momentum traders looking to ride the trend.
🔴 Sell Setup – Breakdown Trade
Entry: Sell below the low of the 15-minute candle with a firm close below ₹3285
Targets:
🎯 T1: ₹3272
🎯 T2: ₹3261
🎯 T3: ₹3250
Stop Loss: Above ₹3295 (modify as per volatility)
Reason: Short-term weakness signaled by intraday structure. Ideal for scalpers and short-sellers during correction phases.
⚠️ Important Notes:
Wait for candle close confirmation at key levels.
Use proper risk management – position sizing, stop-loss, and trailing methods.
Combine with indicators like RSI, volume, or VWAP for added confidence.
📌 Disclaimer:
🔺 This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only.
📊 Trading involves substantial risk – always consult with your financial advisor before making decisions.
💡 Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trade wisely and stay disciplined!
Gold as said sell on rise 3260-3250 1st target 3220,3190 nextHow My Harmonic pattern projection Indicator work is explained below :
Recent High or Low :
D-0% is our recent low or high
Profit booking zone: D13% -D15% is
range if break them profit booking start on uptrend or downtrend but only profit booking, trend not changed
SL reversal zone : SL 23% and SL 25% is reversal zone if break then trend reverse and we can take reverse trade
Target : T1, T2, T3, T4 and .
Are our Target zone
7.8 Gold Analysis7.8 Gold Analysis
Currently, the market is in a tug-of-war between long and short positions
1. Short forces (suppressing gold prices):
Federal Reserve hawkish expectations: Strong non-farm data has reduced market expectations for a rate cut in July, and even strengthened the "higher and longer" interest rate stance.
Stronger US dollar and US Treasury yields: Cooling expectations for rate cuts have pushed up the US dollar and Treasury yields, increasing the opportunity cost of holding interest-free assets such as gold.
2. Long forces (supporting gold prices):
Geopolitical risks: Trump's threat to impose tariffs (trade friction risks) and other unspecified geopolitical tensions have increased gold's safe-haven appeal.
Economic uncertainty: Potential trade frictions themselves will also bring uncertainty to the economic outlook, which is good for gold.
Technical analysis
Watershed: 3320
Resistance level (short selling area): Near 3320
Strategy: Before the price effectively breaks through and stabilizes at 3320, any rebound to this position is seen as a short selling opportunity.
Breakout signal: If the price effectively breaks through and stands above 3320, the technical pattern will turn bullish, and the bearish idea should be abandoned. Consider going long or waiting.
Today's strategy
SELL: around 3320
SL: 3330
TP: 3310-3280
Be cautious in trading and control the risk! I wish you a smooth transaction!
XAUUSD Short Setup – Bearish Structure Break & RetestI’m watching a clean bearish structure on Gold (XAUUSD) as follows:
✅ Trendline Rejections:
Price has respected a descending trendline with three confirmed lower highs, showing clear bearish pressure.
✅ Key Support Broken:
The 3,325–3,330 zone previously acted as strong support. Price has broken below this area with momentum.
✅ Potential Retest:
I expect a pullback retest of the broken support (now resistance) zone. If we see rejection in this area, I plan to enter short.
✅ Target Area:
The final target for this move is set near the 3,262–3,265 zone, which aligns with previous demand and potential liquidity levels.
🎯 Trade Idea Summary:
Bias: Bearish
Entry Zone: 3,325–3,330 (on retest confirmation)
Stop Loss: Above the descending trendline (~3,340+)
Target: 3,262
Risk-Reward: Approx. 1:2 or higher depending on entry execution
⚠️ Note:
Always confirm entries with price action (e.g., bearish engulfing candles or rejections) before entering. Manage risk properly as Gold can be volatile.
💬 What do you think? Share your thoughts and charts below!
#XAUUSD #Gold #TradingView #ShortSetup
Gold Price Setup: Bullish Continuation or Rejection? 🧠 Chart Analysis (XAU/USD – 1H):
Key Structure Highlights:
CHoCH (Change of Character) zones marked both up and down indicate a battle between bulls and bears.
Recent bullish CHoCH followed by a fair value gap (FVG) retest suggests potential continuation to the upside.
Price recently bounced strongly from demand zone, shown by the green arrows and strong candle reaction.
Ichimoku Cloud:
Price is trying to break back above the Kumo (cloud), a sign of bullish momentum building.
However, resistance is still present with the Kijun and Tenkan lines converging.
FVG (Fair Value Gap):
The current price is attempting to fill and break above the FVG zone.
A successful breakout above this area confirms bullish intention.
Fibonacci Levels:
Price is hovering around the 0.5 - 0.618 retracement zone, often a strong reversal or continuation point.
Upside targets lie near the 0.786 retracement (3352) and ultimate target at 3391, a major resistance level.
Risk Management:
Trade setup shows an excellent Risk:Reward ratio.
Stop-loss placed just below the last structure low.
Potential downside to 3290–3258 if breakout fails.
🟢 Possible Next Move:
Bullish Scenario: If price clears the FVG and breaks above 3353, expect continuation to 3391.
Bearish Rejection: If rejected at FVG/0.618 level, watch for a drop back to 3290 or even 3259.
How To Use The OBV (On-Balance Volume) Indicator?The OBV (On-Balance Volume) is a classic volume-based indicator that helps traders measure buying and selling pressure using volume flow. It was developed by Joseph Granville and is widely used to confirm price trends or spot early signs of reversals.
🔍 How OBV Works:
The OBV line is calculated by adding volume on up days and subtracting volume on down days.
* If the closing price is higher than the previous close, that candle's volume is added to OBV.
* If the closing price is lower, the volume is subtracted.
This creates a cumulative volume line that reflects how volume is flowing with price action.
📊 What OBV Tells You:
✅ A rising OBV suggests accumulation (buying pressure)
✅ A falling OBV suggests distribution (selling pressure)
✅ Divergence between OBV and price can signal potential reversals
📌 Example Use Cases:
🔹 Confirming breakouts and breakdowns
🔹 Spotting hidden strength or weakness
🔹 Identifying bullish or bearish divergences
🛠 OBV is most powerful when combined with trendlines, moving averages, or other price action tools.
Disclaimer :
This Post is not financial advice, it's for educational purposes only, I am not a SEBI-registered advisor. Trading and investing involve risk, and you should consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any trading decisions. I do not guarantee profits or take responsibility for any losses you may incur.