XAUUSD – Main Trend: SELL for TodayXAUUSD – Main Trend: SELL for Today
Technical View
In yesterday’s session, Gold reacted three times around the 363x zone but could not break it decisively. This shows the support here is still important, yet selling pressure has been quite strong and continuous.
This morning, the bounce almost absorbed the liquidity of the earlier H1 bearish candle, and price is now in a short-term pullback. The POC from the Volume Profile of the accumulation area has not been fully tested, so there is high probability that price will come back to check that zone before moving with the broader trend.
Overall, considering the technical factors, the main bias for today remains SELL, especially when price approaches key supply zones.
Trade Set-ups
SELL (preferred):
Entry: 3667–3670
SL: 3675
TP1: 3655
TP2: 3640
TP3: 3626
TP4: 3610
BUY (short-term counter move):
Entry: 3613–3615
SL: 3608
TP1: 3625
TP2: 3633
TP3: 3645
TP4: 3660
Key Price Levels
3670: Crucial resistance, aligned with POC – SELL bias is preferred here.
363x: Strong support, tested many times; if it breaks, downside pressure may get stronger.
3610–3615: Demand zone, could give a small pullback.
GOLD.F trade ideas
Elliott Wave Analysis XAUUSD – September 19, 2025
Momentum
• D1 timeframe: Momentum is currently declining, suggesting that the downtrend may continue until momentum enters the oversold zone. This process could take at least 2 daily candles, including the current one.
• H4 timeframe: Momentum is turning upward, but repeated reversals at the oversold zone, along with overlapping price action, indicate that the market is in a complex corrective phase.
• H1 timeframe: Momentum has already turned upward, with 3 H1 bullish candles formed. It is expected that within 1–2 more candles, momentum will likely reach the overbought zone.
Wave Structure
• D1 timeframe: The 5-wave black structure has been completed. The current correction is expected to last longer compared to the previous WXY triangle correction.
• H4 timeframe: Wave counting is complicated due to overlapping price movements. With momentum now recovering, wave B is likely unfolding, which will then be followed by the completion of wave C.
• H1 timeframe: A temporary channel can be drawn to observe price behavior. The market is likely in wave B (black), forming a Flat structure (ABC in blue). Wave C (blue) is projected to equal wave A (blue) at the 3667 level. This price zone also coincides with the boundary between high and low liquidity areas on the Volume Profile, making it a strong resistance zone for potential short entries.
Trading Plan
• Sell Zone: 3667 – 3670
• SL: 3680
• TP: 3644
FED slows down: Cuts 25bps, gold stays flat🟡 XAU/USD – 18/09 | Captain Vincent ⚓
🔎 Captain’s Log – News Context
FED : Cut rates by 25bps as expected, hinted at 2 more cuts this year → initially supported Gold to rebound around 3,65x.
Powell turned hawkish :
• “No need to move quickly on rate cuts.”
• “Today’s cut is mainly risk-management.”
This message signaled that the FED is not fully opening the easing door → Gold fluctuated and stalled its upside momentum.
Tonight: Awaiting Jobless Claims & Philly Fed for more clarity on the FED’s path.
⏩ Captain’s Summary
Gold is supported by the rate cut, but Powell’s “braking” caused volatility.
Zone 3,663 – 3,665 has become the pivot support to determine the next move.
📈 Captain’s Chart – Technical Analysis
Storm Breaker (Resistance / Sell Zone)
3,684 – 3,686 (strong OB)
3,717 – 3,719 (ATH Zone – very strong, likely heavy selling)
Golden Harbor (Support / Buy Zone)
Pivot Dock: 3,663 – 3,665 (new pivot support)
Main Harbor: 3,629 – 3,630 (BoS confluence & old sideway)
Market Structure
After breakout and profit-taking, Gold returned to test support.
3,663 – 3,665 : pivot support.
• If it holds → rebound to 3,684 – 3,717.
• If it breaks → deeper correction to 3,629.
🎯 Captain’s Map – Trade Plan
✅ Buy (priority)
Buy Zone 1
Entry: 3,663 – 3,666
SL: 3,655
TP: 3,684 – 3,717
Buy Zone 2
Entry: 3,629 – 3,630
SL: 3,618
TP: 3,663 – 3,684 – 3,717
⚡ Sell (only at resistance)
Sell Zone OB
Entry: 3,684 – 3,686
SL: 3,695
TP: 3,665 – 3,645
Sell Zone ATH NEW
Entry: 3,717 – 3,719
SL: 3,727
TP: 3,706 – 3,690 – 3,675
⚓ Captain’s Note
“The Golden sails caught wind as the FED cut rates, but Powell’s headwind slowed the advance. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3,663 – 3,629) is the pivot dock to decide the next course. If it holds, the ship may rebound to test Storm Breaker 🌊 (3,684 – 3,719) . If it breaks, the ship will retreat deeper to gather strength. For now, Quick Boarding 🚤 should only be done at strong resistance, while the larger voyage still leans northward.”
Strategic Long-Term Perspective on GoldGold Market Analysis – Report View
Gold has delivered a strong bullish cycle after weeks of accumulation. The past phase showed a contracting range where liquidity was built up and multiple structural shifts occurred, signaling preparation for expansion. Once price broke out of that range in late August, momentum accelerated, leading to a clean and sustained rally into September.
The recent move highlights how market flow continues to favor the upside, with each correction acting as a re-accumulation zone rather than a trend reversal. Institutional order flow remains visible, supporting higher valuations as price respects bullish market structure.
Currently, gold is stabilizing after the sharp leg upward. This pause suggests a phase of healthy consolidation, likely absorbing liquidity before attempting the next impulsive wave higher. Overall sentiment remains constructive, with bullish continuation the dominant narrative unless a major structural shift occurs.
XAUUSD/GOLD Unemployment Claims 18.09.25XAUUSD/Gold – Unemployment Claims (18.09.25):
Current Price Zone: Gold is trading around $3,668.81.
Trading Idea: The chart suggests a buying opportunity if the U.S. unemployment claims data comes out negative (worse than expected).
Key Levels:
Major Resistance R1 → Around $3,685 – $3,690
Breakout and retest of this level signals a buy entry.
Resistance 2 – Yesterday’s High & News High → Around $3,710
Acts as the next upside target after breakout.
Resistance 3 – Expected New ATH → Around $3,736 – $3,740
This is the final bullish target if momentum sustains.
Strategy:
Plan A (Main Setup):
Wait for breakout above R1 (3,690) → Enter buy trade on retest.
Ride the move towards R2 (3,710) and possibly R3 (3,736–3,740).
Confirmation Zone:
If news is negative for USD, gold is expected to rally strongly (bullish bias).
Risk Management:
Stop Loss (SL): Below 3,680 zone, as marked in the red area.
Take Profit (TP): Stepwise at 3,710 → 3,736 → 3,740.
👉 In summary: The chart indicates a news-driven bullish breakout plan — gold buys are favored if the data weakens the USD, with targets up to 3,740.
XAUUSD/GOLD 1H BUY PROJECTION – 18.09.25The 1-hour chart of Gold shows a recent V pattern formation, signaling a strong bullish reversal after a sharp drop.
A downtrend breakout is confirmed, supported by a Three White Soldiers pattern, strengthening the bullish momentum.
Entry Zone: Around 3,668 (current price).
Support (S1): 3,655 – strong demand zone where buyers are likely to defend.
Resistance (R1): 3,685 – key target level for this bullish move.
Risk-to-Reward Setup: Stop-loss below support (S1) at 3,655, with take-profit at resistance (R1) near 3,685.
🔑 Conclusion: Gold (XAUUSD) is showing bullish signs with breakout confirmation. As long as price holds above support at 3,655, the projection favors upside movement towards 3,685.
“XAU/USD 1H – Bullish Continuation from Demand Zone Key Observations:
Uptrend Structure:
Price has been consistently making Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL), confirming an overall bullish market structure.
Break of Structure (BOS) levels confirm continuation of the trend.
Market Structure Shift (MSS):
Recently, price created a short-term shift downward (MSS) but retraced into a POI zone (demand area) near 3,646 – 3,659.
Current Setup:
The price bounced from the POI zone and is now recovering upward.
A long position was marked with entry near 3,659, Stop Loss at 3,646, and Target around 3,709.
Bias:
As long as price holds above 3,646 (POI zone), bullish continuation is favored.
If broken below 3,646, bearish correction could extend further.
XAUUSD – Medium-Term Outlook After Fed Rate CutXAUUSD – Medium-Term Outlook After Fed Rate Cut
Hello fellow traders,
The most anticipated event of September is now clear: the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 25 basis points, the first reduction this year. Market expectations also indicate the possibility of another 50 basis points cut in the upcoming meeting. In his speech, Chairman Powell highlighted the “dual risk” – inflation could rise further while employment shows signs of weakness.
Technical View
Gold has formed an H1 candle closing below the rising price channel, signalling a possible violation of the medium-term uptrend.
The buying side failed to maintain momentum after the rate cut news, showing caution in entering at elevated price levels.
Medium-term investors may consider waiting for a lower price to enter fresh longs.
However, the downside is not fully confirmed, as price is still hovering around the ascending trendline → selling directly at current levels still carries certain risks.
Trading Scenarios
Sell Strategy
Scalping: 3676 – 3678 | SL: 3683 | TP: 3666 – 3650 – 3635 – 3628
(Stop loss can be moved to breakeven if price reacts well, to hold positions longer).
Sell Zone: 3697 – 3700 | SL: 3705 | TP: 3680 – 3666 – 3650 – 3635 – 3628
Buy Strategy
Scalping: 3634 – 3636 | SL: 3629 | TP: 3645 – 3660 – 3672
Buy Zone: 3600 – 3598 | SL: 3590 | TP: 3633 – 3645 – 3660 – 3675 (extended)
Conclusion
Gold is currently in a sensitive phase after the Fed’s decision to cut rates. Traders must watch price action carefully around major support and resistance levels to confirm a clearer direction.
Stay tuned to this outlook — I will continue to provide updates as the market structure evolves. Follow along to receive the fastest scenario changes as price action develops.
Gold 1H – Dollar Strength Weighs Ahead of US DataGold on the 1H chart is testing deeper demand zones near 3,612–3,614 after repeated liquidity sweeps into 3,678 and 3,702. Sellers continue to defend premium supply zones, with engineered stop-runs fading quickly. Today’s US data releases and renewed dollar strength keep gold vulnerable to further downside unless discount demand zones show strong defence.
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📌 Key Structure & Liquidity Zones (1H):
• 🔴 SELL SCALP 3,678 – 3,680 (SL 3,685)
Premium intraday pocket for rejection targeting 3,675 → 3,670 → 3,665.
• 🔴 SELL ZONE 3,704 – 3,702 (SL 3,711)
Major premium supply trap for engineered sweep before continuation lower toward 3,670 → 3,655 → 3,640.
• 🟢 BUY GOLD SUPPORT 3,616 – 3,618 (SL 3,610)
Fresh deep discount demand zone, targeting recovery into 3,630 → 3,645 → 3,655+ if defended.
________________________________________
📊 Trading Ideas (Scenario-Based):
🔻 Sell Setup – Intraday Premium Rejection (3,678–3,680)
• Entry: 3,678 – 3,680
• Stop Loss: 3,685
• Take Profits:
TP1: 3,675
TP2: 3,670
TP3: 3,665
👉 Expect engineered liquidity grab into premium before NY session.
🔻 Sell Setup – Higher Premium Trap (3,704–3,702)
• Entry: 3,704 – 3,702
• Stop Loss: 3,711
• Take Profits:
TP1: 3,670
TP2: 3,655
TP3: 3,640
👉 Smart money may sweep highs near 3,704 before extending bearish leg.
🔺 Buy Setup – Discount Reversal (3,616–3,618)
• Entry: 3,616 – 3,618
• Stop Loss: 3,610
• Take Profits:
TP1: 3,630
TP2: 3,645
TP3: 3,655+
👉 Strong bounce potential if dollar retraces post-data; favourable risk/reward from deep demand.
________________________________________
🔑 Strategy Note
With US data and dollar strength in focus, gold remains heavy below 3,678–3,704. Favour short setups into premium sweeps, but monitor 3,612–3,614 closely for signs of accumulation. Trade lighter size until direction clarifies post-news.
LiamTrading – XAUUSD: A New Trend EmergingHello traders, gold has just formed a new structure as it began a sharp correction following Chairman Powell’s announcement of a Fed rate cut. On the H1 chart, a clear bearish Dow structure is developing, indicating potential medium-term sustainability.
Most buy-side liquidity has already been cleared, which makes the chances of a strong recovery quite low – except for a brief FVG right after the news. However, given overall market sentiment, trading activity in that phase was not significant. The gap formation signals that sellers are now confident in taking control after the Fed’s statement.
The current decline could push gold towards the 363x region, and possibly as far as 361x. A key confirmation level remains at the strong support of 3651, where price previously bounced more than 20 dollars immediately after the news.
Trading plan for today:
Sell 3656 – 3659, SL 3666, TP 3651 – 3646 – 3638 – 3634 – 3626 – 3615
Buy 3634 – 3632, SL 3628, TP 3640 – 3652 – 3660
Buy zone 3607 – 3604, SL 3600, TP 3616 – 3625 – 3638 – 3647 – 3660
This is my personal outlook on XAUUSD for today – use it as a reference for your own trading decisions. If you find this analysis helpful, do follow me for more gold trading scenarios and daily insights.
Blockchain & Tokenized Assets in Trading1. Understanding Blockchain in Trading
1.1 Blockchain Fundamentals
Blockchain is a decentralized ledger that records transactions across multiple computers, ensuring that records cannot be altered retroactively. Key characteristics include:
Decentralization: No single entity controls the network, reducing the risk of centralized failures or manipulation.
Immutability: Once recorded, transactions cannot be altered, enhancing transparency and trust.
Consensus Mechanisms: Networks use methods like Proof of Work (PoW) or Proof of Stake (PoS) to validate transactions.
Smart Contracts: Self-executing contracts with rules encoded directly on the blockchain automate processes, reducing human intervention.
In trading, these features eliminate many traditional inefficiencies, such as delayed settlement, dependency on intermediaries, and manual record-keeping.
1.2 Blockchain vs Traditional Trading Systems
Traditional trading systems, such as stock exchanges and commodity markets, are centralized and rely heavily on brokers, clearinghouses, and custodians. These systems often involve:
Settlement delays: Trades typically settle in T+2 or T+3 days.
Limited accessibility: Small investors may face restrictions due to high entry barriers.
Manual reconciliation: Back-office operations are labor-intensive and prone to errors.
Blockchain addresses these issues by providing:
Real-time settlement: Transactions can be settled almost instantly using digital tokens.
Global accessibility: Anyone with an internet connection can participate in tokenized markets.
Reduced costs: Automation through smart contracts lowers administrative and operational expenses.
2. Tokenized Assets: Definition and Scope
2.1 What Are Tokenized Assets?
Tokenized assets are digital tokens issued on a blockchain that represent ownership rights to real-world assets. These tokens can be broadly categorized into:
Security Tokens: Represent traditional securities like stocks, bonds, or real estate shares. They are often regulated and provide legal rights to holders, including dividends or interest payments.
Utility Tokens: Provide access to a service or platform rather than ownership of an asset. For example, tokens used in decentralized exchanges for transaction fees.
Commodity Tokens: Represent tangible assets like gold, oil, or other commodities.
NFTs as Assets: While traditionally linked to art and collectibles, NFTs can represent ownership of unique financial contracts or intellectual property.
2.2 Benefits of Tokenization
Fractional Ownership: High-value assets, like real estate or rare art, can be divided into smaller tokens, allowing retail investors to participate.
Liquidity: Tokenization enables trading of illiquid assets in secondary markets, improving asset liquidity.
Transparency and Security: Ownership and transaction history are recorded immutably on the blockchain.
Global Market Access: Investors worldwide can buy and sell tokenized assets without geographic restrictions.
Programmability: Smart contracts automate payouts, compliance, and corporate actions.
3. Blockchain-Powered Trading Platforms
3.1 Decentralized Exchanges (DEXs)
Decentralized exchanges allow peer-to-peer trading without intermediaries. Examples include Uniswap, Sushiswap, and PancakeSwap. Key advantages:
Users retain custody of their assets.
Automated Market Makers (AMMs) provide liquidity using smart contracts.
Cross-border and 24/7 trading is possible.
3.2 Security Token Exchanges
Security token exchanges, like tZERO and OpenFinance, cater to regulated security tokens. Features include:
Compliance with KYC/AML regulations.
Integration with traditional financial systems.
Fractional trading of securities like real estate, bonds, or shares.
3.3 Hybrid Trading Platforms
Hybrid platforms combine centralized and decentralized elements to provide regulatory compliance, liquidity, and efficient execution. Examples include Binance and FTX (prior to its collapse). They often provide:
Custody services.
Access to tokenized securities.
Integration with fiat onramps.
4. Applications of Tokenized Assets in Trading
4.1 Equity Tokenization
Companies can issue shares as digital tokens, making fundraising faster and accessible globally. Benefits include:
Reduced costs of IPOs and share issuance.
Increased liquidity for traditionally illiquid stocks.
Fractional ownership for small investors.
4.2 Bond Tokenization
Tokenized bonds offer programmable interest payouts and shorter settlement cycles. This reduces operational costs and increases market efficiency.
4.3 Commodity Tokenization
Gold, silver, and oil can be tokenized, allowing traders to buy small fractions of physical commodities. Advantages:
Reduced storage and transport costs.
Global access to commodities markets.
Instant settlement and 24/7 trading.
4.4 Real Estate Tokenization
Tokenizing real estate allows multiple investors to co-own properties without traditional paperwork. Benefits:
Liquidity in traditionally illiquid markets.
Diversification across geographies and asset types.
Automated rental income distribution via smart contracts.
4.5 Derivatives and Synthetic Assets
Blockchain enables tokenized derivatives and synthetic assets that mirror the price movements of traditional assets. Traders can gain exposure to equities, commodities, or currencies without holding the underlying asset.
5. Advantages of Blockchain and Tokenization in Trading
Efficiency and Speed: Trade settlement occurs almost instantly compared to traditional T+2/T+3 systems.
Reduced Counterparty Risk: Smart contracts automate settlement, reducing reliance on third parties.
Cost Reduction: Fewer intermediaries and automation lower transaction and operational costs.
Transparency: All transactions are recorded on a public ledger, reducing fraud risk.
Global Access: Investors across the world can participate without geographical restrictions.
Programmable Assets: Smart contracts allow automation of dividends, interest, or royalties.
6. Challenges and Risks
While the benefits are significant, blockchain and tokenized assets face several challenges:
6.1 Regulatory Challenges
Regulatory frameworks for tokenized assets are still evolving worldwide.
Different countries have varying rules for securities, taxation, and investor protection.
Compliance with anti-money laundering (AML) and know-your-customer (KYC) standards is mandatory but complicated in decentralized systems.
6.2 Security Concerns
Smart contract vulnerabilities can lead to hacks and loss of assets.
Private key management is critical; loss of keys results in irreversible loss.
6.3 Market Liquidity
Tokenized asset markets are still emerging; liquidity may not always match traditional markets.
Low liquidity can lead to price volatility and market manipulation.
6.4 Technological Risks
Blockchain scalability and transaction speed are ongoing challenges, especially during periods of high demand.
Interoperability between different blockchain networks is limited.
9. Conclusion
Blockchain technology and tokenized assets are reshaping the landscape of trading. By combining decentralization, transparency, and programmability, they address the inefficiencies of traditional financial markets. Investors can now access fractional ownership of assets, trade globally, and benefit from faster settlement cycles.
However, challenges remain—regulation, security, liquidity, and technological limitations need resolution for mainstream adoption. Despite these hurdles, the trajectory is clear: tokenized trading is moving from niche innovation to an integral part of global financial markets. The future may see fully decentralized exchanges for stocks, bonds, commodities, and real estate, offering unprecedented access, efficiency, and democratization of financial markets.
Blockchain and tokenized assets do not merely represent a new way to trade—they signal a paradigm shift in how value is represented, transferred, and monetized in the digital era. For traders, investors, and institutions, embracing this evolution is no longer optional; it is essential for staying ahead in the rapidly changing financial landscape.
Technology & Innovation in Trading1. Historical Context: From Open Outcry to Digital Platforms
1.1 The Open-Outcry Era
Traditionally, trading took place in physical exchanges using open-outcry systems, where traders would shout and use hand signals to execute orders. While this method facilitated human interaction and negotiation, it had significant limitations:
Time and geographical constraints: Trading required physical presence on the floor.
Limited access: Retail investors found it difficult to participate.
Risk of human error: Manual execution often resulted in mistakes.
1.2 Advent of Electronic Trading
The 1980s and 1990s marked the transition from floor-based trading to electronic systems. Exchanges like NASDAQ pioneered automated order matching, allowing trades to be executed faster and more efficiently. The introduction of electronic trading platforms democratized market access and laid the foundation for further innovations.
Key innovations included:
Real-time quotes and order books.
Electronic order matching.
Automated risk management tools for brokers and traders.
2. Algorithmic and High-Frequency Trading (HFT)
2.1 Algorithmic Trading
Algorithmic trading (algo trading) uses computer programs to execute trades based on predefined criteria. These algorithms analyze vast amounts of market data to identify patterns, trends, and opportunities that humans may overlook.
Advantages:
Increased execution speed.
Reduced transaction costs.
Minimized human bias and emotional decision-making.
Applications:
Trend-following strategies.
Arbitrage opportunities.
Market-making operations.
2.2 High-Frequency Trading
High-Frequency Trading represents a subset of algorithmic trading characterized by ultra-fast execution and extremely short holding periods. HFT relies on sophisticated algorithms, co-location facilities near exchange servers, and ultra-low latency networks.
Impact of HFT:
Liquidity provision: HFT firms often act as market makers.
Market volatility: While providing liquidity, HFT can amplify short-term volatility.
Technological arms race: Firms compete to reduce latency by microseconds, driving continuous innovation in network and hardware technology.
3. Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning in Trading
3.1 Predictive Analytics
Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) enable predictive analytics in trading. By analyzing historical price patterns, market sentiment, and macroeconomic indicators, AI models can forecast market movements with increasing accuracy.
Applications:
Sentiment analysis: AI analyzes news articles, social media, and financial reports to gauge market sentiment.
Pattern recognition: ML algorithms identify recurring patterns that signal potential buy or sell opportunities.
Portfolio optimization: AI helps traders optimize asset allocation based on risk-return profiles.
3.2 Reinforcement Learning
Reinforcement learning, a branch of AI, is increasingly applied to trading. Here, algorithms learn through trial and error, optimizing strategies over time. These models are particularly useful in dynamic markets where traditional rule-based algorithms may fail.
4. Big Data and Market Intelligence
The explosion of digital information has given rise to big data, which is transforming trading decisions. Financial markets generate enormous volumes of structured and unstructured data, including:
Price and volume data.
News and macroeconomic indicators.
Social media trends.
Alternative data sources like satellite imagery, shipping logs, and consumer behavior metrics.
Big data technologies in trading:
Real-time data processing frameworks.
Advanced analytics platforms.
Data visualization tools for actionable insights.
Traders now leverage these tools to gain competitive advantages, optimize strategies, and identify market anomalies before competitors.
5. Blockchain and Decentralized Finance (DeFi)
5.1 Blockchain Technology
Blockchain introduces decentralized, immutable ledgers that enhance transparency and security in trading. Its applications in trading are vast:
Cryptocurrency exchanges: Platforms like Binance and Coinbase rely on blockchain for secure transactions.
Tokenized assets: Traditional assets such as stocks, bonds, and real estate can now be tokenized for fractional ownership and global trading.
5.2 Decentralized Finance
DeFi platforms use smart contracts to execute trades without intermediaries, reducing costs and settlement times. Innovations like automated market makers (AMMs) and decentralized exchanges (DEXs) are reshaping the conventional trading ecosystem.
6. Mobile Trading and Retail Empowerment
The proliferation of smartphones has democratized access to trading. Mobile trading apps enable retail investors to trade anytime, anywhere. Innovations include:
Real-time price alerts and notifications.
Fractional share trading.
Integration with AI-based advisory services.
Gamification features to enhance engagement and financial literacy.
This trend has increased market participation and encouraged the growth of retail trading, particularly among younger investors.
Conclusion
Technology and innovation have fundamentally reshaped trading, making it faster, more accessible, and more sophisticated. From algorithmic trading and AI-driven insights to blockchain, DeFi, and mobile platforms, the financial markets of today are more interconnected and data-driven than ever. While these innovations create unprecedented opportunities, they also pose challenges related to security, regulation, and systemic risk. The future of trading lies in the continuous interplay of technology, human ingenuity, and robust regulatory frameworks—ensuring that markets remain efficient, inclusive, and resilient.
The next decade promises even more radical transformations, as AI, quantum computing, and immersive technologies converge with finance. Traders, institutions, and regulators must adapt proactively to leverage opportunities while mitigating risks, ensuring that the financial markets continue to thrive in an era of rapid technological change.
Gold 1H – Fed Decision Looms After $3,700 BreakOn the 1H timeframe, Gold is consolidating around 3,675 after sweeping through the key $3,700 level. Price briefly touched 3,702 before retreating back into the 3,670s, showing engineered liquidity runs on both sides. With the Fed policy decision expected at 1 AM VN time, volatility is likely to spike. The market remains supported by easing USD, central bank flows, and geopolitical tensions, but short-term positioning indicates possible liquidity grabs before a clear directional move.
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📌 Key Structure & Liquidity Zones (1H)
• 🔴 SELL SCALP 3,696 – 3,694 (SL 3,703)
Premium supply pocket for engineered rejection targeting 3,690 → 3,685 → 3,680.
• 🟢 FVG BUY ZONE 3,674 – 3,665 (SL 3,660)
Fair Value Gap demand zone for retracement into structure, targeting 3,685 → 3,695 → 3,700+.
• 🟢 BUY SUPPORT 3,636 – 3,638 (SL 3,630)
Deep discount accumulation zone targeting 3,655 → 3,670 → 3,680+.
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📊 Trading Ideas (Scenario-Based)
🔺 Buy Setup – FVG Reclaim (3,674–3,665)
• Entry: 3,674 – 3,665
• Stop Loss: 3,660
• Take Profits:
o TP1: 3,685
o TP2: 3,695
o TP3: 3,700+
👉 Look for liquidity sweep into FVG before NY session/Fed.
🔺 Buy Setup – Deep Discount (3,636–3,638)
• Entry: 3,636 – 3,638
• Stop Loss: 3,630
• Take Profits:
o TP1: 3,655
o TP2: 3,670
o TP3: 3,680+
👉 High risk-to-reward setup if stops are hunted before Fed decision.
🔻 Sell Setup – Premium Trap (3,696–3,694)
• Entry: 3,696 – 3,694
• Stop Loss: 3,703
• Take Profits:
o TP1: 3,690
o TP2: 3,685
o TP3: 3,680
👉 Expect engineered stop-runs into premium before fading lower.
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🔑 Strategy Note
Gold’s break above $3,700 highlights strong bullish sentiment, but the Fed decision risk suggests smart money may sweep liquidity both ways. Stay flexible: short from premium zone (3,696–3,694), and defend longs at demand zones (3,674–3,665 and 3,636–3,638). Use lighter position sizing until post-Fed clarity emerges.
Next Day's Trend: Short Gold on RalliesNext Day's Trend: Short Gold on Rallies
The following is a reassessment of gold's technicals following the Fed's rate cut decision:
1: Spot gold experienced a sharp correction, breaking through key support levels such as 3680 and 3650.
2: The short-term technical structure was broken, shifting the market from bullish to bearish, entering a technical correction.
3: The 4-hour and daily charts are clearly bearish.
Gold prices broke through the short-term moving average system with a large black candlestick pattern, forming a bearish "dark cloud cover" pattern.
4: Bears are currently in full control of the short-term trend. Any rebound is likely to face renewed selling pressure, and a trend reversal will take time to recover.
5. Key Resistance: $3620-3627 (previous support, now initial resistance)
6. $3655-3665 (stronger resistance). Any rebound in gold prices will first be tested at these levels.
Failure to break through these levels suggests a potential downtrend.
Macro Support Levels:
1. $3,600 (Important Psychological Level)
2. $3,570-3,580 (Near the 50-Day Moving Average)
3. $3,550 (Deeper Retracement Level)
Summary: $3,600 is crucial. A break below this level would open a downtrend towards the $3,550-3,580 area.
Trading Strategy:
Primarily short on rallies, watching for a rebound to resistance around $3,680 or $3,670. Any resistance below this level could be a shorting opportunity. Avoid blindly buying on dips.
Next Steps in Gold Day Trading: Shorting with the TrendNext Steps in Gold Day Trading: Shorting with the Trend
Spot gold experienced significant volatility during the Fed's interest rate decision and Powell's speech.
During Powell's speech, spot gold prices continued to decline, falling over 1% intraday to below $3,650/oz, nearly $60 below the intraday high.
While the market eagerly anticipated the expected 25 basis point rate cut, Powell's guidance on the path of future rate cuts clearly fell short of the dovishness expected by the market.
This "buy the expectation, sell the reality" strategy caused gold prices to initially rise, then rapidly fall.
Prior to the meeting, gold prices were significantly overbought and in need of a technical correction.
The Fed's news merely provided a catalyst for a pullback.
Technical Analysis:
Downside Support Levels:
Short-term Support Level: $3,645 (bullish flag breakout point)
Important Support Level: $3,633 (horizontal support); a break below this level could lead to a drop to the $3,610-3,600 range. Stronger support levels: $3562-3560 area and the psychologically important $3500 level.
Many analysts believe this pullback could be a healthy technical correction, and that gold's long-term bull market fundamentals remain solid.
Trading Strategy Recommendations:
For short-term traders, aim to profit on a rebound or further decline after a pullback, and maintain a tight stop-loss.
1: Cautiously long from now on:
First entry point: Around $3640-3645
Second entry point: $3620-3630 range
Consolidated stop-loss: Below $3610
First target: $3670-3680
Second target: $3700 (reduce or close positions)
Put on a technical rebound on a pullback to the "bullish flag" breakout point and horizontal support.
2: Short with the trend: Short on a rebound to the $3675-3685 range and stagnate.
Stop loss: above 3700 points
First target: 3650 points
Second target: 3630-3640 points
Bets that the Federal Reserve will not be as dovish as expected continue to persist. Capitalize on rallies to resistance levels and profit from pullbacks.
Analysis of the Most Likely Future Gold Price TrendAnalysis of the Most Likely Future Gold Price Trend
Watch for fluctuations above $3,600.
Based on the combination of expected rate cuts and hawkish dot plot guidance, the gold market logic has shifted:
Short-term trend:
Technical adjustments and downward volatility.
The market needs to digest the impact of a hawkish stance and previous heavy profit-taking.
The most likely trend for gold prices is a repeated struggle around the $3,600 mark.
If $3,600 is effectively broken, gold prices will fall further to $3,570-3,580 (50-day moving average) for support, and may even test $3,550.
A rebound would be an opportunity to short on rallies, not the start of a trend reversal.
The main resistance level for the rebound is around $3,620.
Summary: The Fed's tough rate cuts have dealt a heavy blow to gold bulls. The short-term technical outlook has turned bearish, and gold prices are entering a correction.
In terms of operations, we should shift from the previous "buy on dips" approach to "short on rebounds" and pay close attention to the rise and fall of the key level of $3,600.
Gold Trading Strategy | September 17-18🎉 Congratulations to our members who followed our trading strategy — today’s trades yielded over 500+ pips in profit!
✅With the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision released, gold faced resistance above 3700 and entered a phase of high-level consolidation and pullback. The short-term outlook is weak, with attention on the 3660–3650 support zone. If this level breaks, the price may extend its decline toward 3630–3625.
Moving Averages: MA5 and MA10 are flattening with signs of a bearish crossover, while MA20 (around 3627) remains upward-sloping, providing mid-term support.
Bollinger Bands: Price has retested the mid-band support near 3675; if this level fails, a further move toward 3627 is likely.
✅ Trading Strategy Reference:
If the price rebounds to the 3670–3675 area and holds, consider short positions, with targets at 3630–3625.
🔥Trading Reminder: Trading strategies are time-sensitive, and market conditions can change rapidly. Please adjust your trading plan based on real-time market conditions. If you have any questions , feel free to contact me🤝
LiamTrading – XAUUSD OutlookSharing my personal view on the possible next move for gold.
Based on the current chart structure, the wave formation suggests that XAUUSD is most likely in Wave 4. The correction started yesterday after price touched the 3,700 mark – a round resistance level which also coincides with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. This area often attracts heavy liquidity, and the subsequent pullback further supports the view that Wave 4 has been activated.
At present, the key support to watch is 3,675. If this level breaks, the corrective structure could complete around 3,656. On the H1 timeframe, the RSI has moved below the 30 level, indicating oversold conditions. In my view, while the market remains in this phase, it is still preferable to look for selling opportunities, though patience is needed until clearer confluence signals appear.
Trading plan (short-term focus):
Sell entry 3685–3687, SL 3693, TP 3670 – 3656
Buy entry 3656–3654, SL 3648, TP 3675 – 3690 – 3702 – 3721 – 3740
I will continue to share further updates if there are significant moves in price. Wishing everyone successful and effective trading.
Gold (XAUUSD) FOMC Forecast – 17 Sept 2025Gold (XAUUSD) FOMC Forecast – 17 Sept 2025
Current Price: ~3666
Key Levels Identified:
Resistance R1: ~3700
Trendline Resistance R2: ~3780
Support S1: ~3623
Support S2: ~3540
📰 News Impact Projection:
If the Federal Reserve Cuts the Funds Rate
Expect bullish momentum.
Strategy: Buy after a retest above Resistance R1 (~3700).
Target: Trendline Resistance R2 → ~3780.
If the Federal Reserve Increases the Funds Rate
Expect bearish momentum.
Strategy: Sell after a retest below Support S1 (~3623).
Target: Support S2 → ~3540.
⚠️ Stop Loss (SL):
Around 3658, near current consolidation zone.
🎯 Summary
Bullish case (Rate Cut): Buy above 3700 → Target 3780.
Bearish case (Rate Hike): Sell below 3623 → Target 3540.
Market direction will strongly depend on FOMC Funds Rate decision.
Volume Profile & Market Structure AnalysisPart 1: Understanding Market Structure
1.1 What is Market Structure?
Market structure is the framework of price movement. It’s the natural rhythm of the market, made up of highs, lows, trends, ranges, breakouts, and consolidations. Think of it as the skeleton of price action, which reveals how institutions and retail traders interact.
In simple terms, market structure helps us answer:
Is the market trending up, trending down, or consolidating?
Where are liquidity pools likely located?
Which price levels matter most to big players (banks, hedge funds, market makers)?
1.2 The Building Blocks of Market Structure
Swing Highs and Swing Lows
Swing High: A peak where price fails to continue higher.
Swing Low: A valley where price fails to continue lower.
These levels often act as liquidity pools where stop losses gather.
Trends
Uptrend: Higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL).
Downtrend: Lower lows (LL) and lower highs (LH).
Sideways/Range: Price oscillates between support and resistance with no clear direction.
Break of Structure (BoS)
When price violates the previous high or low, signaling a shift in trend. Example: if price makes a new higher high after a downtrend, that could signal a bullish shift.
Change of Character (ChoCh)
A sudden break in the short-term market rhythm, often the first clue of a potential trend reversal.
Liquidity
Stop orders, pending orders, and clusters of positions sitting around obvious levels (support, resistance, round numbers).
Market makers often push price toward these liquidity zones to fill large institutional orders.
1.3 Institutional vs. Retail Market Structure
Retail traders often focus on patterns (double tops, triangles, flags).
Institutions care about liquidity and order flow. They engineer moves to trap retail positions and accumulate their own.
This is why understanding structure at an institutional level (smart money concepts) is crucial. It explains phenomena like false breakouts, liquidity sweeps, and stop hunts.
Part 2: Understanding Volume Profile
2.1 What is Volume Profile?
Volume Profile is a charting tool that shows how much trading volume occurred at each price level during a given period. Instead of just telling you “when” trades occurred (time-based volume), it tells you “where” trades occurred in price.
The Volume Profile is plotted as a horizontal histogram along the price axis. This makes it easier to see which price zones attracted the most participation from traders and institutions.
2.2 Key Components of Volume Profile
Point of Control (POC)
The price level with the highest traded volume.
Acts as a magnet for price because it represents “fair value.”
Value Area (VA)
The range where about 70% of trading volume occurred.
Split into:
Value Area High (VAH)
Value Area Low (VAL)
High-Volume Nodes (HVN)
Areas of heavy participation (accumulation zones).
Price often consolidates here.
Low-Volume Nodes (LVN)
Areas where price quickly passed through with little trading.
Often act as support/resistance.
2.3 Why Volume Profile Matters
Shows institutional footprints: Institutions need liquidity to fill big orders, so they often transact heavily around POC and HVNs.
Highlights imbalances: When price rejects LVNs, it suggests aggressive buying/selling dominance.
Helps with trade entries & exits: Knowing where fair value is (POC) vs. imbalance zones helps traders time reversals or continuations.
Part 3: Combining Market Structure & Volume Profile
Market Structure tells you the direction of the market, while Volume Profile shows you where the heavy battles occur. Used together, they create a powerful framework.
3.1 Example: Trend Continuation Setup
Step 1: Identify the trend using Market Structure (higher highs, higher lows).
Step 2: Look at Volume Profile to find the POC or Value Area Low (support).
Step 3: If price retraces to VAL while maintaining bullish structure, it’s often a high-probability continuation zone.
3.2 Example: Reversal Setup
Step 1: Notice a Change of Character (ChoCh) in structure.
Step 2: Check if price swept liquidity near an HVN or POC.
Step 3: If Volume Profile shows rejection of that value area, it signals strong reversal potential.
3.3 Liquidity & Volume Synergy
Liquidity pools (stop-loss clusters) often sit near low-volume nodes because price moves fast through those zones.
Institutions push price into these LVNs to trigger stops and then absorb liquidity.
Once filled, price usually returns to HVNs (fair value).
Part 4: Practical Strategies with Volume Profile & Market Structure
4.1 The Volume Profile Rejection Strategy
Identify LVNs.
Wait for price to test and sharply reject.
Enter with trend confirmation from market structure.
4.2 Breakout + Volume Profile Confirmation
If price breaks a structural level (BoS), check if it’s supported by high volume near POC.
Strong volume = genuine breakout.
Weak volume = likely false breakout.
4.3 Value Area Rotations
Price often oscillates between VAH and VAL.
Strategy: Buy near VAL, sell near VAH, exit at POC.
Works best in ranging conditions.
Part 5: Psychological & Institutional Insights
Retail Traps: Market structure fakeouts occur around LVNs, engineered by institutions.
Smart Money Accumulation: Seen in HVNs—where large players accumulate before big moves.
Auction Theory: Markets function as auctions—Volume Profile is essentially a visualization of that auction process.
Conclusion
Volume Profile and Market Structure Analysis are not “magic bullets,” but together they form one of the most institutionally aligned trading frameworks available to retail traders.
Market Structure explains where price wants to go.
Volume Profile explains where participants are most active.
By combining them, traders can anticipate moves with higher probability, avoid traps, and align themselves closer to the behavior of professional market participants.
Ultimately, the goal is to stop thinking like a retail trader chasing indicators and start thinking like a liquidity hunter—someone who understands where the market is auctioning, who’s trapped, and where the next wave of orders is likely to hit.