XAU/USD – Gold in Equilibrium Zone: Sell Opportunities Around...🔍 Market Context
Gold is currently consolidating within a triangle structure , showing short-term accumulation before a potential breakout.
Buyers are trying to maintain a minor bullish structure, but the series of lower highs indicates that sellers still hold the upper hand.
At the moment, price is reacting within the FVG 3,942–3,979 USD area, staying below the descending trendline.
If this zone fails to break, selling pressure may return.
💎 Key Technical Levels
• Bearish Order Block: 4,022 USD → main supply zone, aligning with the descending trendline.
• FVG Zone 1: 3,979 USD → short-term liquidity test area.
• FVG Zone 2: 3,942 USD → potential retracement zone before further downside.
• Bullish Order Block: 3,882 USD → key support aligning with long-term bullish trendline.
• Liquidity Zone: 3,789 USD → extended target if main support breaks.
🎯 Trading Scenarios
1️⃣ Sell Setup – Reaction from Resistance Zone
• Entry: 4,012 – 4,022 USD
• Stop Loss: 4,035 USD
• Take Profit:
– TP1: 3,979
– TP2: 3,942
– TP3: 3,900
– TP4: 3,882
– TP5: 3,789
✳️ “Sell the premium” – utilise supply and FVG reactions following Smart Money flow.
2️⃣ Buy Setup – Reaction from Demand Zone
• Entry: 3,882 USD
• Stop Loss: 3,865 USD
• Take Profit:
– TP1: 3,910
– TP2: 3,942
– TP3: 3,979
– TP4: 4,012
– TP5: 4,022
✳️ “Buy the discount” – valid when strong absorption or reversal signal forms near the lower OB.
💬 Summary
Current structure remains short-term bearish , yet the market is balanced.
The most efficient approach is to sell near premium zones (4,022) and buy back near discount (3,882) .
Expected range in the next 24–48 hours: 3,880–4,020 USD .
💡 Tagline:
“Trade where institutions act — not where retail reacts.”
⏰ Timeframe: 1H
📅 Updated: 30/10/2025
✍️ Analysis by: Captain Vincent
Trade ideas
GOLD | Is This the FINAL Short Setup Before the Next Move? Welcome Traders!
Forget the noise — focus on structure and sentiment. Gold is holding firm near $3,950, but the macro backdrop just got tighter.
The question now: Can demand strength beat Powell’s new hawkish tone?
1. Market Insight – Powell vs. Demand
Two forces are pulling Gold in opposite directions:
🐻 Bearish Catalyst:
Powell hinted that another rate cut in December is unlikely, and the Fed plans to continue balance sheet reduction — strengthening the USD and weighing on non-yielding assets like Gold.
🐂 Bullish Support:
Persistent central bank demand and ETF inflows continue to provide a safety net, tightening overall Gold supply.
🎯 Outlook:
Expect sideways compression before a potential breakout. We’re stalking the strategic Sell Zone to align with the bearish fundamentals.
📊 2. Structure Check – Where Bears Wait
The market is approaching a major confluence zone:
SELL LIMIT Zone: $4,057 — intersection of the descending trendline and key horizontal resistance.
Immediate Support: $4,005 — target for the first leg down.
3. Action Plan – The Short Sniper Setup
Entry: SELL LIMIT $4,057
Stop-Loss: just above the descending trendline
TP1: $4,005 (short-term support retest)
Extended Target: $3,938 if breakdown accelerat
Powell’s hawkish tone is clear — but will bears finally take control from $4,057$, or will central bank demand defend the rally?
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD | October 30, 2025
1️⃣ Momentum
• D1 Timeframe:
D1 momentum remains entangled. Yesterday’s daily candle closed at its lowest point, rejecting all intraday bullish attempts. However, it has not yet broken the previous candle’s low — this suggests that the bearish trend is still intact, though weakening, and a potential reversal could occur within the next 1–2 days.
• H4 Timeframe:
H4 momentum is approaching the oversold zone, indicating a possible short-term recovery lasting around 4–5 H4 candles.
• H1 Timeframe:
The price is currently either consolidating or continuing its short-term decline.
If it continues to cling to the 3927 liquidity zone, a further breakdown is likely.
________________________________________
2️⃣ Wave Structure
• D1 Timeframe:
Price is now sitting near the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement of wave (3) in yellow — a typical correction level for wave (4).
Therefore, if the decline continues or the correction extends, it’s highly probable that we are in wave (4) of the yellow count, and the current drop is only the first sub-wave of this corrective phase.
• H4 Timeframe:
Currently, price is around the 0.872 extension of wave (3) in purple, which is not ideal for a completed wave (4).
When combining the D1 and H4 structures, both indicate that the market is likely forming a corrective wave (4) in yellow, and a recovery move may soon appear as D1 momentum begins to turn upward.
👉 If this scenario is confirmed:
o If price breaks above the previous wave (3) high (around 4400), it would confirm the start of a new impulsive wave upward.
o If price rises slowly and the highest target only reaches around 4400 before turning down again → this move is likely part of the corrective wave (4) before another bearish leg resumes.
• H1 Timeframe:
The current formation suggests a potential double zigzag structure.
To confirm this setup, price needs to break below 3892. This is a strong liquidity zone, so if price reaches it, a temporary bounce could occur.
Key liquidity zones above to watch: 3927 – 3953 – 3995.
If price fails to break above the previous red wave X, these zones may act as strong resistance levels, pushing the market lower again.
Target areas for the red wave Y are:
o 3814
o 3786
________________________________________
3️⃣ Trade Plan
Scenario 1:
• Buy Zone: 3815 – 3813
• SL: 3804
• TP1: 3892
Scenario 2:
• Buy Zone: 3787 – 3785
• SL: 3776
• TP1: 3892
________________________________________
📌 Summary:
D1 momentum is weakening and nearing the oversold zone → a potential bullish rebound could develop in the coming sessions.
The 3815 – 3785 area remains a key buy zone, while 3927 – 3995 should be closely monitored as resistance levels to confirm the next directional move.
Gold Rebounds Toward OB, but Deeper Correction May Follow🔍 Market Context
After forming a Change of Character (ChoCH) and a clear Break of Structure (BoS) to the downside, gold dropped sharply from 4,080–4,100 USD, confirming a shift from bullish to bearish structure.
Price is now making a technical rebound, forming Lower Highs toward the Order Block 4,012 USD — aligning with a small Fair Value Gap (FVG) , suggesting new selling pressure may emerge.
This rebound is seen as a “pullback retest supply” within a completed bearish setup.
If the 4,012 USD supply zone reacts strongly, price may extend its drop toward lower liquidity pools.
💎 Key Technical Structure
BoS (bearish): confirms a break below prior bullish structure.
Order Block (OB): 4,010–4,020 USD → main supply area confluencing with FVG.
FVG zone: 3,985–4,010 USD → technical retracement zone.
Supply Zone: 3,891–3,895 USD → temporary support, may be swept.
Liquidity Zone: 3,850–3,860 USD → key liquidity target.
📈 Trading Scenarios
1️⃣ SELL Setup – Retest OB 4,010–4,020 USD
Entry: 4,010 – 4,020
SL: 4,035
Take Profit: 3,985 - 3,965 - 3,945 - 3,915 - 3,890/Open
✅ Condition:
Wait for price to retest FVG–OB with clear bearish confirmation (strong rejection, bearish engulfing, or minor ChoCH on M15).
➡️ Trend-follow setup – sell after price retests supply zone.
2️⃣ BUY Setup – Reversal at Liquidity Zone 3,850 USD
Entry: 3,850 – 3,860
SL: 3,830
TP1: 3,870 - 3,885 - 3,900 - 3,920 - 3,940/Open
✅ Condition:
Wait for strong absorption or bullish reversal signal (long-tail rejection or bullish ChoCH on M15–H1).
➡️ Counter-trend scalp setup for reversal traders.
⚠️ Risk Management
Prioritise SELLs below 4,035 USD.
BUYs only valid with confirmation at Liquidity Zone.
Avoid mid-range trading (3,920–3,970) to reduce noise.
💬 Conclusion
Gold remains in a bearish trend after breaking prior bullish structure.
As long as price stays below 4,035 USD , downside momentum prevails.
Next major target: 3,891 – 3,851 USD .
👉 Strategic Plan:
Sell 4,010–4,020 | SL 4,035 | TP 3,985 → 3,890 🎯
Buy 3,850–3,860 | SL 3,830 | TP 3,870 → 3,940 🎯
💎 Price never lies — liquidity always reveals the truth.
⏰ Timeframe: 1H
📅 Updated: 29/10/2025
✍️ Analysis by: Captain Vincent
technical analysis for your XAU/USD (Gold vs USD) chart:XAU/USD (Gold) 15-Min Chart Analysis – 29 Oct 2025
Market Structure
The previous descending channel has been broken to the upside, indicating a potential trend reversal from bearish to bullish.
Price retraced back to a support level zone (≈ $3,920 – $3,940), where buyers are likely to defend.
Key Levels
Support Zone: 3,920 – 3,940
→ Price already tested this area with strong rejection wicks, showing buyer interest.
Resistance Zone: 3,980 – 4,020
→ Short-term resistance; a breakout above 4,020 confirms bullish momentum.
Target Level: 4,142
→ As marked on your chart, this is the projected bullish target after confirmation of upward continuation.
Price Action
After a downward correction, gold found support and formed a double-bottom-type pattern near the 3,940 level.
Price is currently consolidating above support, signaling potential accumulation before an upward push.
Momentum Outlook
If price holds above 3,940, expect a move towards 4,000 → 4,020, followed by a breakout to 4,142 (target).
However, if 3,920 support breaks, the price may retest 3,880–3,860, resuming short-term bearish momentum.
📈 Trading Bias
Bullish bias above 3,940 (target 4,142).
Bearish only below 3,920 (target 3,860). EURONEXT:NH7X2025 EURONEXT:PE6X2025 EURONEXT:PE7X2025 EURONEXT:A57X2025 EURONEXT:AJ7X2025 EURONEXT:AJ7X2025 EURONEXT:B16X2025 EURONEXT:B17X2025 EURONEXT:BC6X2025 EURONEXT:BC7X2025 EURONEXT:BC8Z2025 EURONEXT:FE6X2025 EURONEXT:MH7X2025
Gold Declines as Sellers Dominate the MarketGold is undergoing a controlled correction phase after an extended period of sustained gains. Market behavior over recent sessions reflects a shift from expansion to contraction as liquidity flow decreases and momentum weakens across key time horizons.
The previous upward cycle attracted substantial speculative interest, but current market dynamics suggest profit-taking by institutional participants and reduced accumulation from large holders. The recent structural shift confirms that sentiment has turned defensive, aligning with global market caution amid evolving economic conditions.
Despite short-term consolidation, the broader setup indicates that gold remains sensitive to global financial stability concerns and policy signals. Market participants are now waiting for clarity on upcoming economic data and interest rate outlooks, which could determine whether the correction deepens or transitions into a new accumulation phase.
In the near term, volatility is expected to remain elevated as investors reassess exposure levels. The prevailing outlook maintains a cautious bias, with traders closely observing how price reacts to continued shifts in liquidity and macro sentiment. Sustained capital outflow from hedge assets could pressure gold further, while renewed demand for safety could limit downside potential in the medium term.
Gold (XAU/USD) 4H Chart Analysis – Short-Term Reversal from ?Technical Overview:
Gold has recently rebounded from a High Demand Zone around the $3,900–$3,910 region, showing clear signs of buyer re-entry after a prolonged bearish correction. The candle structure suggests strong bullish intent, with higher lows forming and a potential continuation toward the next liquidity area.
Key Observations:
🔹 High Demand Zone: Price reacted strongly here, indicating institutional buying pressure.
🔹 High Prop POI (Point of Interest): Served as a key accumulation level before the breakout.
🔹 SMC Trap: Indicates a prior liquidity grab, trapping late sellers before the move up.
🔹 Bullish Momentum Building: Consecutive bullish candles after rejection from the demand zone strengthen the reversal bias.
Target Projection:
🎯 Immediate Target: $4,080 – $4,100 (aligned with local resistance and liquidity grab zone).
🛑 Support: $3,905 (must hold to maintain bullish structure).
💎 Extended Target (if momentum continues): $4,160 – $4,180 (previous major swing high zone).
Summary:
Gold is showing a short-term recovery phase within a broader bullish structure. A confirmed 4H close above $4,030 would likely propel price toward the $4,100 region, while a drop below $3,900 would invalidate the bullish setup.
📊 Suggested Title:
"Gold Rebounds from Key Demand Zone, Eyes $4,100 Resistance 🔥"
Part 1 Ride The Big Moves What Are Options?
An option is a financial contract that gives the buyer the right, but not the obligation**, to buy or sell an underlying asset at a predetermined price (called the strike price) before or on a specific date (the expiry date).
Options are categorized into two types:
Call Option: Grants the holder the right to buy the underlying asset.
Put Option: Grants the holder the right to sell the underlying asset.
For example, if an investor believes a stock’s price will rise, they might buy a call option. Conversely, if they expect the price to fall, they might buy a put option.
Gold Recovers 1000 Pips Ahead of FOMC: Key Levels in Focus📊 Market Overview
After a sharp selloff that shook long positions, Gold has rebounded nearly 1000 pips, recovering from the 388x area toward 398x ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting.
Despite the short-term recovery, Gold remains down around 3.5% this week, showing caution as traders reposition before the Fed decision and amid easing U.S.–China trade tensions.
Currently, the price is trading near $3,980–3,990 during the Asian session, consolidating below the psychological $4,000 mark.
💎 Technical Outlook (H1–M15)
Gold continues trading in a short-term ascending channel, showing a corrective recovery inside a larger downtrend.
Immediate Support Zones:
• 3,961 – 3,937 → Trendline retest & OBS Buy Zone
• 3,918 → Structural invalidation area
Resistance & Key Reaction Levels:
• 4,018 – 4,085 → Mid-term resistance
• 4,094 – 4,102 → Major Sell Zone (Fibo 1.5–1.618 confluence)
📍If Gold breaks and holds above 4,018, momentum could extend toward 4,085–4,102.
📍If it rejects near 4,094–4,102, a correction toward 3,961–3,937 is likely.
🌍 Macro Context – FOMC Ahead
Markets expect a 25bps rate cut. A hawkish tone from Powell may pressure Gold, while a dovish one could send it above $4,100.
🧭 Summary
Gold keeps a short-term bullish bias but remains fragile ahead of FOMC.
Expect volatility around 4,000–4,100; key reactions near 4,094–4,102 will decide the next move.
🛡 Stay patient — liquidity builds before clarity.
XAUUSDPrice Action Trading is a method of financial market analysis where traders make buying and selling decisions solely based on the asset's price movements over time, without relying on technical indicators.
It's essentially the art of reading a "naked" or clean chart to understand the psychology and behavior of market participants.
Gold Extends Decline Below $4,000 as Risk Appetite Returns🔍 Market Context
Gold continues to struggle amid renewed optimism around US–China trade talks.
The shift in sentiment has reduced safe-haven demand, while softer expectations of further Fed rate cuts keep the US Dollar capped — offering limited downside support for XAUUSD.
However, the technical landscape remains clearly bearish.
The break below the ₹4,000 handle confirms continuation of the downtrend first outlined in early-week plans.
📊 Technical Analysis
Structure: Gold maintains a clean bearish channel on the H1–H4 frame.
Immediate resistance: ₹3,985 – ₹4,000 (former support, now supply zone).
Target zones:
• Short-term liquidity area near ₹3,925–₹3,930
• Extended target sits around ₹3,880–₹3,860, aligning with Fibo 1.618.
Invalidation: Only a sustained break and hold above ₹4,020–₹4,030 would neutralize this short-term bearish bias.
🎯 Trading Outlook
If gold retests the broken ₹4,000 zone and fails to regain it,
expect sellers to extend control toward ₹3,920 or lower ahead of the FOMC meeting.
That event may later define the next recovery point — but for now, momentum remains firmly on the downside.
⚜️ Summary
Gold’s recent slide isn’t random — it’s structural.
The market is rebalancing after excessive bullish sentiment,
and liquidity below ₹3,900 is likely to attract attention before any significant rebound.
Watch the reaction near ₹3,920–₹3,880 —
that’s where the next meaningful decision for gold may emerge.
📊 MMFLOW TRADING Insight:
Smart money doesn’t chase candles — it waits for liquidity to shift.
🇮🇳 LiamTrading – XAUUSD: Dual Strategy Ahead of FOMC🇮🇳 LiamTrading – XAUUSD: Dual Strategy Ahead of FOMC | Focus on Buying the Retracement near $3914
Hello Traders,
After a strong sell-off, Gold (XAUUSD) is showing early signs of recovery, building a minor upward structure.
We continue to focus on buying the pullback, viewing this move as a short-term correction within the broader downtrend.
Expect higher volatility as the FOMC decision approaches.
📰 MACRO CONTEXT & FUNDAMENTALS
The market is holding steady ahead of the FED announcement:
🟢 Technical Recovery:
Gold reversed part of its decline during the Asian session, bouncing slightly from a 3-week low as traders await the FOMC rate decision.
🔴 Headwinds:
However, optimism around US-China trade talks and a stronger USD continue to limit the upside momentum.
📊 TECHNICAL VIEW & TRADING PLAN
We are focusing on high-probability liquidity zones for both long and short opportunities:
🟢 Primary BUY Setup (Retracement Buy)
Looking for a retest of the key buy-side liquidity zone to trigger the next recovery wave.
Entry Zone (Buy): $3914
Stop Loss: $3906 (Tight SL recommended)
Take Profit: TP1 $3933 | TP2 $3956
🔴 SELL Setup (Retest / Short-Term Scalping)
Using the broken trend area for short opportunities.
Entry Zone (Sell): $4048
Stop Loss: $4056
Take Profit: TP1 $4035 | TP2 $4022
🧭 SUMMARY & TRADER’S NOTE
Gold is now in a decision zone — volatility will spike around FOMC.
Trade with discipline:
✅ Enter only at confirmed liquidity zones.
✅ Always respect your Stop Loss.
✅ Manage your capital carefully before the news release.
Wishing everyone a profitable and disciplined session!
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD (October 29, 2025)
Momentum
• D1: Momentum remains compressed, but yesterday’s candle closed with a long lower wick — a clear sign of weakening downside pressure. A bullish daily close today would confirm a potential D1 reversal.
• H4: Momentum is preparing to turn down from the overbought zone, yet the current upward move is still weak. We need to monitor whether price can hold above the previous low once H4 momentum drops toward oversold.
• H1: Momentum is falling, but price is supported around 3953 and capped near 3994.
As long as price holds above 3927 and avoids breaking 3892, the next H4 oversold phase could confirm a stronger upside structure.
________________________________________
Wave Structure
• D1: The current decline equals 0.382 retracement of wave (3) yellow, a key Fibonacci level.
• H4: Wave (4) purple has already retraced 0.782 of wave (3) — unusually deep for a normal 4th wave (which typically stops around 0.382–0.5).
This suggests the ongoing correction may represent wave (4) yellow on the D1 timeframe.
If true, the market could now be forming wave W of a larger W–X–Y structure, meaning the upcoming recovery might only be a slow, overlapping X wave before another decline.
• H1: The 5-wave black structure seems completed.
A break above 3995, followed by a test of 4050, would confirm the end of wave (5) black and the start of a corrective move upward.
________________________________________
Summary
Price volatility is still high — avoid limit orders for now and watch how price reacts at key zones.
• 🔹 Support: 3953 – 3927 – 3892
• 🔹 Resistance: 3994 – 4050
“Gold Rebounds from Demand Zone — Short-Term Recovery Ahead”Analysis:
Gold (XAU/USD) on the 4-hour chart shows a strong corrective decline after forming an SMC trap near the 4,250–4,300 zone, where liquidity was swept before a sharp selloff. Price has now reached the High Probability POI (Point of Interest) around the 3,850–3,880 region, showing early signs of a bullish reaction.
The recent candle structure indicates buyers are stepping in from this demand zone, confirming a potential short-term reversal. If momentum sustains, the first target zone lies around 3,950–3,980, aligning with minor resistance and previous imbalance fill.
Outlook:
📈 Bias: Bullish correction (short-term)
🧭 Key Support: 3,850 – 3,880
🎯 Target: 3,950 – 3,980
⚠️ Invalidation: Break below 3,840 may reopen bearish continuation toward 3,780
GOLD RETESTING SUPPLY BEFORE NEXT LEG DOWN🧭 DAILY TRADING PLAN – GOLD (XAU/USD)
Date: Oct 28, 2025
Main timeframe: M30 – H1
Strategy: SMC + Market Structure + Supply Zone
1. MARKET CONTEXT
Gold continues its bearish momentum after multiple CHoCH and BOS confirmations on lower timeframes.
Price is currently trading around 3935, after rejecting from several supply zones (4045–4047, 4011–4013, and 3975–3977).
Higher timeframe structure (H1–H4) remains bearish, with resistance forming between 4010–4050 and potential liquidity resting below 3928.
2. INTRADAY BIAS
Bias: Bearish
Expectation: Short retracement into supply → continuation down to support zone.
3. TRADING SETUP
Sell Zone #1: 3975 – 3977
Sell Confirmation: Price forms bearish CHoCH on M15–M30 near supply zone.
Entry: 3976
Stop Loss: 3982 (6 USD range)
Take Profit 1: 3940
Take Profit 2: 3928
R:R ≈ 1:4 — targeting liquidity below the previous swing low.
Avoid buying until clear BOS above 4013 is confirmed.
4. NOTES
If price closes above 4013, invalidates short bias and shifts to neutral — wait for fresh structure before entering again.
Monitor volume + reaction near Support Zone (3928–3940) for potential profit-taking.
Gold Breaks Key Support Zone — Bearish Momentum Builds Below $4,Analysis:
The XAU/USD (Gold vs. USD) 45-minute chart shows a clear breakdown below the established support zone, indicating a shift in market sentiment from consolidation to bearish momentum.
The support zone around $4,050 – $4,000 had previously held multiple times, acting as a strong demand area.
The recent breakout below this zone confirms a potential trend continuation to the downside.
Price action suggests a bearish pattern with lower highs and lower lows forming before the breakout.
A retest of the broken support (now resistance) may occur before the next leg lower.
The next major target lies near $3,900 – $3,850, aligning with the projected measured move.
Technical Outlook:
If gold fails to reclaim the $4,050 level, further downside pressure remains likely. However, a close back above this level could invalidate the bearish breakout and signal a possible false break.






















