Gold Forecast: Liquidity Rotation Shaping Price ActionGold Forecast: Liquidity Rotation Shaping Price Action
Gold’s recent movement reflects shifting dynamics between liquidity capture and market rebalancing. The push above 3,800 was less about sustained trend extension and more about triggering stops and gathering liquidity before rotating lower. This type of move often indicates that large participants are managing positioning rather than chasing new highs.
The current correction phase is part of that process. Price is being driven back into zones where imbalances remain, allowing institutional flow to realign. Instead of showing weakness, this return highlights how markets redistribute liquidity to prepare for the next decisive move.
From a flow perspective, gold remains in an accumulation phase. Consolidation pockets reveal ongoing positioning, while the corrective dip reflects controlled market engineering rather than disorder. If this cycle continues, the next stage could see energy released in the form of a renewed expansion leg once sufficient liquidity has been absorbed.
In essence, gold is navigating a liquidity-driven cycle: sweep → redistribute → prepare → expand. The underlying order flow still favors upward continuation once the current rebalancing phase completes.
GOLD.F trade ideas
“Gold (XAU/USD) – Breakout Play from Resistance (1-Hour View)Chart Structure & Key Levels
You’ve drawn a resistance zone above current price. The label “this is the resistance area here if break we will hold” points to a horizontal resistance line or zone.
You also show a descending trendline acting as dynamic resistance.
On the lower side, you mark LL (Lower Low) and LH (Lower High) points, implying the prior structure was in a downtrend or consolidation.
Your trade setup (green = target area, red = stop area) suggests you are expecting a break above resistance and a move upward with three target levels:
• TP1 at ~ 3,759.74
• TP2 at ~ 3,779.03
• TP3 at ~ 3,799.67
What Your Setup Implies (and Risks)
Bullish Bias on Breakout
You are expecting that if price breaks above the resistance zone + trendline, that resistance may flip into support, allowing the price to rally further. This is a classic breakout reversal expectation.
If the breakout is confirmed (with strong candle close above, ideally with volume), then the path is “clearer” for your targets.
Stop / Risk Control
Your red zone (stop area) is placed below the resistance/trendline region. If price fails and falls back below this, your trade idea would be invalidated.
Target Levels Logic
TP1 is relatively conservative, just above resistance.
TP2 and TP3 stretch further to capture the upside momentum if the breakout has strength.
Additional Considerations & Technical Tips
Confirm the Breakout
Don’t just enter on a quick wick above resistance. Wait for a sustained close above the zone (on your timeframe) to reduce the chance of a false breakout.
Check volume: higher-than-average volume on the breakout gives it more credibility.
Watch for Retest
Often after a breakout, price returns to retest the broken resistance (which now may act as support). This retest can offer a better entry with lower risk.
Manage Risk Aggressively
The more distant your TP3, the more room for price to reverse. Consider scaling out of the trade (taking partial profits as price hits TP1, TP2) to lock in gains.
Keep an Eye on Macro / Fundamental Factors
Gold (XAU/USD) is sensitive to U.S. monetary policy, the strength of the U.S. dollar, inflation expectations, and geopolitical risk.
For example, stronger U.S. data or hawkish Fed statements could work against a bullish breakout in gold.
Divergences & Momentum Indicators
Use RSI / MACD / ADX to check whether momentum supports your breakout idea. If momentum is weak or showing divergence, be cautious.
Timeframe Alignment
Make sure that higher timeframes (4H, daily) are not giving strong bearish signals conflicting with your breakout bias on the 1-hour chart.
Daily Gold Trading Plan – London & New York Sessions🏆 Market Overview
Gold continues to hold within the upward channel, with active buying emerging whenever prices adjust to the trendline. The daily fluctuation range is identified around 3,795 – 3,820, suitable for short-term trading strategies based on price action.
🔑 Key Technical Levels
Resistance: 3,819 – 3,826 → upper edge of the upward channel, potential short-term sell zone.
Near Support: 3,790 – 3,793 → upward trendline, favourable buy zone in line with the trend.
Deep Support: 3,760 – 3,752 (EMA200) → critical defence if near support is breached.
⚖️ Intraday Trading Scenarios
Scenario A – Buy on Correction (Main Priority)
Entry Point: 3,790 – 3,793
Stop Loss: below liquidity candle (around 3,785)
Take Profit: 3,820 → 3,835 → extend to 3,840+
👉 Reason: Uptrend dominance, strong buying at trendline, suitable for trend-following.
Scenario B – Sell at Upper Edge (Short-term Scalp)
Entry Point: 3,820 – 3,826 (when price reacts at resistance)
Stop Loss: approximately 6 points (around 3,832)
Take Profit: 3,795 – 3,793 (back to support zone)
👉 Reason: RSI has entered overbought territory, favourable for quick sell orders at the upper band.
📊 Daily Fluctuation Range
Main Range: 3,795 – 3,820
If resistance breaks: 3,826+ → 3,840 – 3,845
If support is lost: 3,790 → 3,760
💡 Session Notes
London: High likelihood of price testing the 3,790 support zone before recovery.
New York: Strong volatility may occur when US data is released, with 3,820 being a critical test point.
🧭 Risk Management
Prioritise buying on corrections, selling should only be short-term scalping.
Maintain stop-loss discipline below 3,785 for buy scenarios.
If price breaks below 3,750, cease buying and wait for a new structure to form.
📌 Conclusion: Throughout the day, gold is likely to continue fluctuating within the upward channel. The main strategy is to buy at support – take profit at resistance, while sell orders should only be executed when price touches the upper edge and should be exited quickly.
XAUUSD – Gold Bulls Eye New Highs | Francis FiboMatrix Plan📊 Market Outlook
Gold keeps climbing with momentum, now approaching the 3,800$ zone. The market is fuelled by expectations of more Fed rate cuts and rising demand for safe-haven assets as global uncertainties stay elevated.
Silver is also breaking higher, heading toward its historic $50 target, confirming the broader strength in precious metals.
📍 Trading Levels
✅ BUY Zone: 3782 – 3780
🛑 Stop Loss: 3772
🎯 Take Profits:
TP1 → 3800
TP2 → 3829
TP3 → 3848
TP4 → 3885+ (long-term hold if 377x holds support)
⚡ Trading Plan
Only look for BUY setups on dips – no shorting in this phase.
Keep position sizing balanced; trail stops once price moves past 3829.
Bias remains bullish as long as gold holds above 377x support.
💡 Francis Note
This is not just a trade – it’s part of the bigger wave. Play the retracements smart, respect risk, and let the trend do the heavy lifting.
💬 Your View?
Is gold ready to break beyond 3,885 → 3,900, or will we get a quick pullback first? Drop your charts and setups below 👇
LiamTrading – Gold: Wave 5 isn't over yet...Gold: Wave 5 isn't over yet, awaiting ABC corrective wave
According to Elliott Wave perspective, gold is currently in wave 5 and no clear reversal signals have appeared. Once wave 5 is completed, a reasonable scenario would be entering the ABC corrective phase.
Technical Analysis
The current price range remains in an uptrend, supported by the medium-term trendline.
Key resistance – support zones are identified based on Fibonacci, Volume Profile, and strong psychological levels.
RSI indicates gold is approaching the overbought region, hence short-term Sell orders (scalping) around the peak area might offer an advantage.
Trading Plan Reference
Sell: 3840 – 3842, SL 3846. This is a strong resistance zone, prioritise scalping if the downward reaction lacks strength.
Buy: 3783 – 3785, SL 3779, TP 3800 – 3818 – 3838.
Large liquidity Buy: 3740, SL 3733, expecting a strong reaction from this area due to previous accumulation volume.
Important Note
Early in the week, there are often numerous political – economic news causing noise, which might unexpectedly push gold up.
The resistance zones 3840–3850 are strong psychological levels, observe reactions before making decisions.
For short-term trading, adhere closely to the plan, while flexibly adjusting when price paths change to maintain an advantage.
In summary, wave 5 is still developing and trading opportunities mainly focus on key resistance – support zones. Traders need to manage risks well, patiently wait for confirmation, and remain flexible to adapt to fluctuations.
The DXY index fell around 97.95 on Monday, extending the decline into the second session as the risk of a US government shutdown weakens market sentiment and investors await a series of important economic data to be released this week.
Wishing you successful trading, follow me and the trading community!
New ATH Above 3800 & FOMO Buying Still Driving the Market📊 Market Context
Gold has once again set a new all-time high above 3800 USD/oz, showing no signs of losing bullish momentum. The surge is fueled by strong FOMO buying flows, as traders continue to pile into safe-haven assets.
Concerns about a possible US government shutdown and renewed discussions around tariff policies have weighed on the dollar, while expectations of upcoming Fed rate cuts keep gold supported. Meanwhile, Fed speeches and incoming US data remain key drivers that could inject short-term volatility, but the broader bullish narrative remains intact.
🔎 Technical Analysis (H1/H4)
Price is firmly holding above the 3800 psychological level, confirming the breakout.
Buy zones remain intact at 3790–3792 and 3784–3782, with solid demand expected on any dip.
Sell liquidity sits around 3823–3825, where short-term profit-taking or traps may emerge before the next leg higher.
🔑 Key Levels
Resistance / Sell Zone: 3823–3825
Support / Buy Zones: 3790–3792, 3784–3782
📈 Scenarios & Trading Plan
BUY ZONE 1: 3790–3792
SL: 3786
TP: 3795 - 3800 - 3810 - 3820 - 3830 - ???
BUY ZONE 2: 3784–3782
SL: 3778
TP: 3790 - 3795 - 3800 - 3810 - 3820 - 3830 - 3840 - ???
SELL ZONE (Liquidity Trap Zone): 3823–3825
SL: 3830
TP: 3818 - 3814 - 3810 - 3805 - 3800 - ???
⚠️ Risk Notes
Beware of liquidity sweeps near 3823–3825 before continuation higher.
Fed comments and macro data may cause sudden spikes — adjust risk accordingly.
Stick to confirmation entries around zones to avoid being trapped by false moves.
✅ Summary
Gold is riding strong FOMO-driven bullish momentum, printing new highs above 3800. Main bias: buy on dips at 3790–3782, while monitoring short-term sell liquidity at 3823–3825 for potential pullbacks. The broader trend remains bullish, so patience and disciplined entries will be key.
XAUUSD – Prioritise waiting to buy after gold hits ATHXAUUSD – Prioritise waiting to buy after gold hits ATH, target 3840
Hello Trader,
Right at the start of the week, gold has set a new ATH, affirming the upward trend remains dominant. The price structure on H1 shows buying pressure remains quite strong, while adjustments are mainly to balance liquidity. In the current context, the preferred trading strategy is still to wait to buy at key support zones, with a target towards 3840.
Basic Context
This week, the usual focus would be on the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. However, the risk of a US Government shutdown might delay this crucial report.
The US fiscal year runs from 1/10 to 30/9. If Congress does not pass all 12 spending bills, agencies without funding will have to cease operations.
In the absence of important economic information, gold continues to benefit from safe-haven sentiment and fiscal policy uncertainty.
Technical View
The price has broken out and created an ATH, with the 3837 – 3840 zone currently being strong resistance (Fibonacci + market psychology).
The 3770 – 3773 zone is near support, coinciding with the trendline and previous liquidity, suitable for buying.
MACD on H1 shows buying momentum is maintained, but a correction is needed for price balance before breaking higher.
Trading Strategy
Short-term Sell (at resistance):
Entry: 3837 – 3840
SL: 3844
TP: 3830 – 3800 – 3770
Note: This is only a reactive order at resistance, going against the main trend, so manage risk tightly.
Preferred Buy (trend-following):
Entry: 3770 – 3773
SL: 3766
TP: 3784 – 3799 – 3810 – 3838
Conclusion
This week, gold still prioritises the Buy strategy at support zones. The main target is towards 3840, an important resistance zone and a benchmark for trend strength. The Sell order is only short-term at resistance, while the main scenario remains waiting for a correction to buy up.
Follow me for short-term scenario updates during the week, especially as news and US fiscal policy changes can significantly impact gold.
Gold Trading Strategy for next Monday✅ On Friday, gold rose sharply. We had already advised members to go long around the 3748–3752 area, and the price later climbed to as high as 3783. However, during the second half of the U.S. session, gold pulled back without breaking a new high, indicating weakening bullish momentum. The key question now is whether gold still has the strength to refresh its all-time highs or if this was just a temporary spike. Next week will be a critical observation period.
✅ 4-Hour Chart: Gold has broken out of the recent consolidation range, extending its rally toward the historical high near 3791. The 21-period SMA around 3750 provides strong support. If the price holds below 3750, the short-term structure will turn bearish, possibly falling back into the previous range with downside targets at 3720 and 3700. Conversely, a clear breakout above the 3780–3791 resistance zone could unleash new bullish momentum and open the door to further highs.
✅ 1-Hour Chart: Gold is currently trading in a narrow range, with short-term moving averages gradually turning upward. However, if the rebound momentum fades, a potential double-top could form around 3780–3783, leading to short-term pressure. Overall, unless major news triggers a move, gold will likely remain range-bound early next week. Watch 3780 as resistance and 3720 as support.
🔴 Resistance Levels: 3780–3785 / 3791–3795
🟢 Support Levels: 3745–3755 / 3730–3720
✅ Trading Strategy Reference:
🔰 If gold holds above the 3745–3755 support zone, consider light long positions with targets at 3780–3785.
🔰 If gold breaks below 3745–3755, a 4-hour double-top will likely be confirmed. In this case, consider light short positions targeting 3730–3720.
🔰 If gold faces resistance at 3780–3785, short entries can be considered with targets back down to 3745–3730.
🔥Trading Reminder: Trading strategies are time-sensitive, and market conditions can change rapidly. Please adjust your trading plan based on real-time market conditions.
I sell according to the game masterwith my idea to prioritize selling down
Because the crowd's expectations are always bullish, to catch the bullish buyers, it needs to go down a corresponding distance.
Previously the price went against plan with the bears expecting it to go to the lower fvg zone.
all of the above makes me feel that price needs to go down and reach svg zone to theoretically not affect the knowledge that has been communicated to everyone.
Gold Spot Price Technical Analysis [28-09-2025]Gold Spot Price Technical Analysis - Based on the chart, the XAU/USD daily chart shows an ascending triangle pattern, which is generally considered a bullish signal. The price is currently near a breakout level around 3435.06, with a potential target near 3900.00 if the upward trend continues. The RSI (14) at 74.53 suggests the asset is in overbought territory, which could indicate a potential pullback or consolidation.
Risk Management Secrets for Trading XAU/USD!Hello Traders!
Gold (XAU/USD) is one of the most rewarding instruments, but also one of the most dangerous if you don’t manage risk properly.
Many traders lose not because their strategy is bad, but because they fail to protect their capital.
Here are some key risk management secrets every gold trader must know.
1. Position Sizing is Everything
Gold moves fast, a $5 move can wipe out accounts if the lot size is too big.
Always calculate position size based on risk per trade (ideally 1–2% of your account).
This way, even if you hit multiple stop losses, your account survives.
2. Wider Stops, Smaller Lots
Gold often spikes and hunts tight stop losses.
Use slightly wider stops, but reduce lot size to balance the risk.
This gives your trade room to breathe without increasing overall risk.
3. Never Trade News Without a Plan
During events like NFP, CPI, or Fed speeches, XAU/USD becomes extremely volatile.
If you’re not experienced, it’s better to stay out.
If you do trade, cut position size and expect slippage.
4. Daily Loss Limit
Decide in advance how much you can lose in one day (for example, 3% of account).
If that limit is hit, stop trading for the day.
This prevents emotional revenge trading, which is the biggest killer in gold trading.
5. Use Partial Profits
Gold reverses quickly, so book partial profits when the trade moves in your favor.
This locks in gains and reduces pressure.
Move stop loss to break-even once part profits are secured.
Rahul’s Tip:
Your job as a trader is not to catch every move, but to stay in the game .
Risk management may feel boring, but it’s the only reason why professional traders survive while retail traders blow up.
Conclusion:
In XAU/USD trading, strategy decides entries, but risk management decides survival.
By controlling lot size, stops, and emotions, you can make gold work for you instead of against you.
If this post helped you see risk management in a new light, like it, drop your thoughts in comments, and follow for more trading wisdom!
Gold awaits PCE | EMA squeeze, big waves ahead🟡 XAU/USD – 26/09 | Captain Vincent ⚓
🔎 Captain’s Log – Context & News
Trump : Announced a 100% tariff on branded drugs if not produced in the US → escalating trade tensions.
PCE tonight : The FED’s most important inflation gauge, key to shaping October rate cut expectations (current probability 91.09%).
The market is in “hold breath” mode, awaiting the PCE spark to decide the next direction.
⏩ Captain’s Summary : Gold is squeezed between two winds – short-term EMA pressure and major expectations from PCE.
📈 Captain’s Chart – Technical Analysis
EMA : EMA 34 (yellow) remains below EMA 89 (red) → short-term bearish pressure persists, but narrowing gap signals big volatility ahead.
Golden Harbor (Support / Buy Zone)
3,738 – 3,730
3,718
3,687
3,651
Storm Breaker (Resistance / Sell Zone)
3,755 – 3,773
🎯 Captain’s Map – Trade Plan
⚡ Sell (scalp at resistance)
Entry: 3,773 – 3,776
SL: 3,783
TP: 3,755 – 3,745 – 3,734
✅ Buy (trend-follow priority)
Buy Zone 1 (Scalping)
Entry: 3,72x – 3,718
SL: 3,710
TP: 3,750 – 3,769 – 3,776
Buy Zone 2 (Deeper OB)
Entry: 3,685 – 3,683
SL: 3,675
TP: 3,690 – 3,695 – 3,700 – 3,705 – 3,7xx
⚓ Captain’s Note
“The Golden sails are being squeezed between EMA 34 & 89. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3,734 – 3,683) remains the safe dock for sailors to await the big wave. Storm Breaker 🌊 (3,773 – 3,776) is raising fierce waves, only suitable for short Quick Boarding 🚤 scalps. Tonight’s PCE will be the decisive wind – either pushing the ship beyond 3,78x or forcing it back to retest 3,72x.”
📢 If you find Captain’s Log useful, don’t forget to Follow for the latest updates.
💬 What do you think? Will Gold break through 3,78x or retest 3,72x first?
Part 6 Institutional TradingPart 1: Role of Implied Volatility
Implied volatility (IV) reflects market expectations of future price movement.
High IV → Expensive options, profitable for sellers if volatility drops.
Low IV → Cheap options, profitable for buyers if volatility rises.
IV is a key factor in selecting strategies and timing trades.
Part 2: Time Decay in Options (Theta)
Options lose value as expiration approaches due to time decay.
Long options: Lose value over time if price doesn’t move.
Short options: Benefit from decay as premium erodes.
Understanding time decay is critical for timing trades.
Part 3: Hedging with Options
Options are powerful hedging tools:
Protect portfolios from market downturns using puts.
Lock in future prices for commodities.
Reduce risk while maintaining upside potential.
Hedging requires understanding correlation and position sizing.
Part 4: Speculation Using Options
Options allow leveraged speculation:
Small capital can control large positions.
Enables directional bets on bullish, bearish, or volatile markets.
High leverage carries high risk and potential loss of the entire premium.
Part 5: Options Market Participants
Key participants include:
Hedgers: Reduce risk from price fluctuations.
Speculators: Take positions for profit from price movements.
Arbitrageurs: Exploit pricing inefficiencies.
Market Makers: Provide liquidity by quoting bid and ask prices.
Part 6: Options on Indices vs Stocks
Stock Options: Based on individual stocks, more sensitive to company events.
Index Options: Based on market indices, less prone to individual stock risk.
Index options often used for hedging broad market exposure.
Part 7: Regulatory Environment
Options trading is regulated to ensure market integrity:
Exchanges like NSE, BSE in India; CBOE in the US.
Margin requirements for sellers.
Reporting and compliance rules.
Surveillance to prevent manipulation.
Part 8: Risks in Option Trading
Risks include:
Market Risk: Price moves against the position.
Time Decay Risk: Value erodes as expiration nears.
Liquidity Risk: Inability to exit positions at fair price.
Volatility Risk: Unexpected market volatility.
Proper risk management is critical for survival in options trading.
Part 9: Trading Platforms and Tools
Options are traded through online brokers and trading platforms:
Real-time data, option chains, and Greeks calculators.
Advanced platforms allow strategy backtesting.
Mobile apps support tracking and execution on-the-go.
Part 10: Conclusion and Best Practices
Option trading is a versatile financial instrument offering leverage, hedging, and income generation opportunities. Key best practices:
Understand the product before trading.
Focus on risk management, not just profit.
Start with simple strategies before moving to complex spreads.
Use Greeks to monitor risk and optimize trades.
Keep learning, as markets and strategies evolve continuously.
Options are powerful tools, but they require knowledge, discipline, and patience to trade successfully.
Elliott Wave Analysis XAUUSD – 28/09/2025
________________________________________
🔹 Momentum
• D1: Momentum is still declining → next week we may continue to see sideways movement or further downside following D1 momentum.
• H4: Momentum is also decreasing → on Monday, we expect a continuation of the downtrend.
• H1: Momentum is oversold and preparing to rise → during the Asian session on Monday, a short-term upward move is likely.
________________________________________
🔹 Wave Structure
• D1 timeframe:
o Price is still within wave 5 (yellow).
o If D1 momentum enters the oversold zone and then turns upward, but price remains sideways without reaching 3632, then wave 5 (yellow) may still extend toward the second target at 3887.
• H4 timeframe:
o A corrective WXY structure is forming.
o With H4 momentum turning down, it is likely that wave Y is unfolding.
• H1 timeframe:
o A declining ABC (blue) structure appeared, followed by a rising ABC (blue) structure toward 3784.
o Within this, wave B formed a triangle abcde (red).
o This shows two ABC (blue) corrective structures developing within the adjustment, suggesting multiple possibilities for wave Y:
1️⃣ Flat 3-3-5: Wave Y may unfold as a 5-wave sharp decline, with an ideal target around 3713 → this is the expected Buy zone.
2️⃣ Triangle: Price may consolidate sideways above 3718 → patience is required to wait for the pattern to complete.
3️⃣ Large-scale Triangle: If the entire correction is a triangle, price will also sideway above 3718 → wait for completion before acting.
• Note: If price breaks above 3792, it may confirm that the corrective structure is complete → next upside target would be 3810.
________________________________________
🔹 Trade Plan
• Buy Zone: 3714 – 3711
• SL: 3703
• TP: 3733
________________________________________
👉 Conclusion:
The optimal approach is to wait for confirmation:
• Either the triangle structure completes,
• Or price declines into the 3713 – 3711 zone to set up a Buy entry.
XAUUSD – Need confirmation before placing orders
Hello everyone,
Last week, gold experienced a strong surge, but after hitting the resistance at 378x, a noticeable selling pressure emerged, causing the price to drop and the weekly candle to close in a corrective direction. This indicates a market sentiment of hesitation, especially for those trading on margin, who are more susceptible to fear-driven decisions.
Technical Analysis
Currently, the price is returning to test the trendline around 3752. This is a crucial area where a reactive Buy can be considered, with a safe stop loss placed below 3743. However, this is merely a trade based on crowd psychology, so careful observation of price action is necessary.
In the event the price breaks the upward channel, we will wait for a pullback around 3760 to enter a Sell order. Should this scenario unfold, the downtrend will become clearer, with the target potentially reaching the 366x–367x region.
Additionally, pay special attention to the support area of 3717–3723. This is a significant price zone, and if breached, gold is likely to enter a medium-term downtrend. In this context, a reactive Buy at 3715 could also be a reasonable scalping option for those who prefer short-term trading.
Trading Scenarios
Buy around 3752, SL 3743.
Sell upon breaking the trendline and pulling back to 3760, expecting a decline to 366x–367x.
Buy scalping at 3715, SL 3709, short TP towards 3723–3735.
📌 As the new week begins, be patient and observe the price reactions at key areas to obtain clear confirmation signals before placing orders.
Hopefully, this scenario will be helpful for everyone's trading process. I will continue to share more so that everyone can keep a better track of the market.
LiamTrading – Medium-term Gold Outlook H4Let's prepare the scenario for the new week, folks!
In my opinion, gold in the coming week may start to show a medium-term correction phase. However, it is important to note that nothing is absolutely certain on a larger timeframe. If you are trading intraday, stay closely aligned with price action to ensure higher accuracy.
Gold closed the weekly candle at 3759.85 – a price level that clearly indicates hesitation. The end-of-week session showed a rejection of price increase, mainly due to profit-taking pressure, so it cannot be immediately confirmed that a downtrend will begin.
The upward price channel is still strong, so it is essential to maintain a buying trend mindset to ensure the confidence in holding profits remains firm.
The upward structure is still stable, but the RSI has reflected a weakening in buying sentiment. To confirm a medium-term correction, gold needs to break 3720. At that point, a reasonable strategy would be to wait to sell around 3737–3740 (retracing to the trendline), targeting the support area coinciding with the highest volume profile cluster at 3645.
Conversely, the buying scenario will occur when:
- Price touches the 3735 boundary and a candle rejection reaction appears.
- Or gold breaks above the minor resistance at 3780, in which case you can buy immediately, with expectations towards the 3850 area.
Next week, be patient and wait for market confirmation to increase the probability of success. I will continue to share detailed scenarios in each trading session for everyone to stay updated.
XAUUSD – New Week Scenario on D1 FrameXAUUSD – New Week Scenario on D1 Frame: Prioritise buying, the 3790 – 3720 zone decides the trend
Hello Trader,
Trading is a journey, and the most important destination is conquering oneself.
On the D1 frame, gold has experienced a series of consecutive strong increases, indicating that buyers still maintain the advantage. The buying force shows no clear signs of weakening, even though gold has recently reacted with a slight decrease around 3790. Currently, the price is accumulating around 3760 – the closing candle zone for this week.
Basic Outlook
Political pressure from President Trump on the Fed is increasing, as the market expects an easing move soon. However, Chairman Powell remains cautious, prioritising price stability over inflation issues.
This factor may continue to keep gold in the position of an important safe-haven asset, especially in the context of policy uncertainty.
Technical Outlook
The price zone of 3790 – 3720 will play a decisive role in the medium-term trend for next week.
If 3790 is broken, gold will have the opportunity to advance to the Fibonacci Extension zone of 3822. Further, strong resistance lies around 3840 – 3860.
If 3720 is breached, selling pressure will retest the strategic support zone at 3650. This is also the confluence area with the upward trendline on D1.
MACD Indicator: continues to support buyers, the histogram remains positive, not showing a clear decrease signal.
Volume: no significant selling pressure has appeared, indicating that gold is entering an accumulation phase, waiting for a breakout.
Trading Scenario for Next Week
Buying Scenario (priority):
Buy around 3650 – 3660 (if there is an adjustment).
SL: below 3640.
TP: 3720 – 3790 – 3822.
Selling Scenario at Resistance:
Sell around 3822 – 3830 (Fibo + strong resistance).
SL: above 3840.
TP: 3790 – 3760 – 3720.
Conclusion
In the medium term, the upward trend still prevails. Next week, gold will revolve around the 3790 – 3720 mark, and reactions here will pave the way for the next trend. The priority strategy is to buy at the support zone of 3650, while observing reactions at 3822 to consider short-term selling orders.
Short-term scenarios will be updated during the day, helping you be more proactive with market fluctuations.
Follow me and the community to update the earliest scenarios
XAUUSD MULTI TIME FRAME ANALYSISHello traders , here is the full multi time frame analysis for this stock , let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions , the position will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be satisfied. wait for more price action to develop before taking any position. I suggest you keep this pair on your watchlist and see if the rules of your strategy are satisfied.
🧠💡 Share your unique analysis, thoughts, and ideas in the comments section below. I'm excited to hear your perspective on this pair .
💭🔍 Don't hesitate to comment if you have any questions or queries regarding this analysis.
XAUUSD/GOLD WEEKLY BUY PROJECTION 28.09.25XAUUSD/Gold Weekly Buy Projection (27.09.25). Here’s a breakdown of what it shows:
Current Price Level: Around 3,759.85.
Technical Zones Marked:
Broke the Uptrend Line (earlier support turned resistance).
Bearish Engulfing Failed (bullish strength seen).
Fair Value Gap (FVG) near 3,740–3,750 zone, acting as a demand zone.
Projection Path:
Price expected to bounce from the FVG/demand area.
Then follow an upward zigzag movement toward the target zone around 3,860.
Trend Channel:
Multiple parallel blue channels drawn indicate a bullish structure.
Projection suggests continuation of the uptrend.
Target Price:
Marked close to 3,860, aligning with the upper channel line.
🔑 Summary of Projection:
Bias: Bullish
Entry Zone: 3,740–3,760 (Fair Value Gap zone)
Target Zone: 3,860
Risk Area: If price breaks below 3,720, projection may fail.
👉 Do you want me to prepare a trading plan (entry, SL, TP, and risk %) based on this projection for you?
A strong ongoing bullish trend but may be approaching exhaustionAs being in Wave 3, which is typically the longest and most powerful impulse wave in a trend. Within this larger Wave 3, the price appears to be in the final, smaller Wave 5. This suggests the immediate uptrend is still in progress.
Overall trend is clearly upwards, confirmed by the price action consistently making higher highs and higher lows within an ascending channel (blue dashed lines).
The next significant targets appear to be:
$3,836.264 (1.618 extension)
$3,894.613 (2.618 extension)
$3,937.569 (3.0 extension)
EMA 50 + RSI Divergence = Gold Reversal Setup!Hello Traders!
Gold often makes sharp one-sided moves, trapping traders who enter too late. But if you know how to combine a simple moving average with a momentum indicator, you can spot high-probability reversal setups.
One such method is using the EMA 50 together with RSI Divergence . Let’s break down how it works.
1. Why EMA 50?
The 50-period EMA acts as a dynamic trend filter.
When gold trades above it, the short-term trend is bullish; below it, bearish.
Price often retests the EMA 50 during pullbacks, making it a key level to watch for reversals.
2. What is RSI Divergence?
Divergence happens when price makes a new high/low, but RSI doesn’t confirm it.
Example: Price makes a higher high, but RSI makes a lower high → bearish divergence.
This signals that momentum is weakening, even if price is still moving strongly.
3. Combining EMA 50 with RSI Divergence
First, check where price is relative to EMA 50.
Next, look for divergence on RSI near that zone.
If both align (price struggling at EMA 50 + RSI divergence), chances of a reversal increase sharply.
4. Entry & Risk Management
Wait for a confirmation candle near EMA 50 (like engulfing or pin bar).
Place stop loss just above recent swing high/low.
Target the next support/resistance zone for exits.
Rahul’s Tip:
Don’t use divergence alone, combine it with EMA 50 for structure and you’ll filter out most false signals. This setup works best on higher timeframes like 1H or 4H for gold.
Conclusion:
EMA 50 gives you the trend filter, and RSI divergence reveals momentum weakness.
Together, they form a reliable reversal setup that helps you enter gold trades at the right time instead of chasing moves.
This Educational Idea By @TraderRahulPal (TradingView Moderator) | More analysis & educational content on my profile
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