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GOLD trade ideas

GOLD Waiting for the Big BreakOut after FOMC This WeekGold Sideway Compression | Waiting for the Big BreakOut after FOMC This Week Gold is currently consolidating in a tight range, building up energy for a major BreakOut. After the liquidity sweep at the weekly open, price fluctuated strongly between the 332x – 335x zone, but on the H1 timeframe, the overall trend still remains within a descending channel. Last week, CPI & PPI data failed to deliver a clear direction. This week, all eyes are on the FOMC meeting, expected to provide stronger signals for gold’s next move. ⏳ Early to mid-week: with limited impactful news, gold may continue to sideway within the narrow range or maintain downside pressure until FOMC is released. 🔑 Key Market Levels Resistance: 3357 – 3369 – 3383 – 3398 Support: 3335 – 3317 – 3309 📌 Trading Setup ✅ BUY Zone: 3334 – 3332 SL: 3328 TP: 3338 – 3342 – 3346 – 3350 – 3355 – 3360 – 3370 – 3380 👉 If gold breaks the descending channel around 336x, expect a strong move towards 3383 – 3398. ✅ SELL Zone: 3383 – 3385 SL: 3390 TP: 3378 – 3374 – 3370 – 3360 – 3350 👉 If gold fails at higher resistance and reverses, liquidity may be swept back into 333x – 331x, with potential extension down to 329x. ⚠️ Summary Gold is at a critical decision point: BreakOut or Breakdown. Before FOMC: sideways / bearish bias within H1 channel. After FOMC: expect a strong Pump or Dump to define the clear weekly trend. 🔥 Keep a close eye on reactions at KeyLevels (333x – 336x – 338x) to adjust trading strategy accordingly.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MMFlowTrading
Gold Outlook – Buying as the Main ThemeGold Outlook – Buying as the Main Theme Gold continues to move in line with previous analyses. Earlier today in the Asian session, the market saw a quick dip due to liquidity being cleared during the daily one-hour break. However, price quickly recovered, broke through the 3339 resistance, and confirmed that buying momentum has returned, strengthening the short-term bullish trend. Expectations for a new Elliott wave cycle are gradually taking shape. At this point, wave 3 is considered to have begun — typically the strongest phase with greater momentum and wider price swings. This supports the scenario of a medium-term bullish outlook. Price remains above the key EMA levels, confirming that the long-term trend is intact. The breakout above 3339 reinforces buyer strength and opens the way towards Fibonacci extension targets at 2.618 and 3.618. MACD also maintains positive momentum, while Elliott structure suggests that wave 3 still has room to extend further. As long as gold holds above the 3336–3338 zone, this remains a reasonable area to consider buying. A minor pullback around this level would offer an even better opportunity to join the trend, with a stop-loss of about 6 dollars to manage risk effectively. When price approaches Fibonacci extension targets, traders may consider partial profit-taking or look for short-term selling opportunities. This approach will be suitable given how far wave 3 has already extended. It is important to monitor price reactions around the extension zones. Higher timeframes such as H1–H4 should be prioritised to capture the broader structure and avoid market noise. A strong trend never moves in a straight line; it always comes with pauses and retracements. Staying patient and riding with the main trend is often the best way to maximise profits in the medium term. #XAUUSD #Gold #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #Fibonacci #ElliottWave #MACD #Forex #IndiaTrading
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by BrianLionCapital
Gold Update: Range Trading with Bearish UndertoneAfter last week decline,gold has entered a consolidation phase within a well-defined range. The current support is at around 3330, which coincides with last week's low and also serves as the monthly pivot point, providing a strong foundation for short term. On the upside, resistance is at 3350-3355, which aligns with the current week's pivot level, creating a ceiling that sellers are defending. The price action within this tight range suggests that market participants are taking a breather after the recent selling pressure, with both bulls and bears showing restraint as they assess the next move. The way gold is trading within these boundaries gives the impression that energy is building up, much like a coiled spring ready to release. This type of consolidation pattern often precedes a significant directional move, as market forces accumulate before choosing their next path. The technical setup indicates that we're likely approaching a critical range where gold will need to make a decisive break either above or below this range. A breakout above the 3350-3355 resistance zone could signal renewed bullish momentum and attract fresh buying interest, while a breakdown below the 3330 support level might open the door for further downside pressure.Looking at the weekly and daily price action, the bears seem to have the upper hand in the current scenario. The recent decline from higher levels has created a bearish tone, and importantly, we haven't seen any major reversal signals that would suggest a strong buying opportunity at these current range levels
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TheGoldenCircle
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD 19/8/2025 1. Momentum • D1 timeframe: Price is still waiting for confirmation of a bullish reversal in the oversold zone. The current decline has lasted for 7 daily candles, which is usually sufficient for a corrective wave → suggesting the down move is in its final stage. • H4 timeframe: Momentum is preparing for a bullish reversal in the oversold zone. We can expect 4–5 bullish H4 candles ahead, indicating a possible upward move today. • H1 timeframe: Momentum is tightening in the overbought zone. o If price makes a strong rally above 3343, the bullish move will be confirmed. o If price continues to consolidate sideways, a downward liquidity sweep may occur before pushing higher. 2. Wave Structure • D1 timeframe: Expectation remains that the abcde red triangle correction has been completed. The market is likely forming waves 1 and 2 (blue) of a new 5-wave bullish sequence. • H4 timeframe: The red ABC correction has already reached its first target at 3322. Combined with reversal signals on D1 and H4, this level could mark the bottom of wave C red or wave 2 blue. • H1 timeframe: After a strong rally yesterday, price is now in a deep pullback. This is likely wave 2 red, following the completion of wave 1 red. o Wave 2 has retraced to the 0.782 Fibonacci level of wave 1, making it a potential ending point. o However, since H1 momentum is still in the overbought zone, another drop is still possible. o If price breaks below 3324, then wave C might still be in progress, with key support zones at 3322 – 3315 – 3300. 3. Trading Plan • Current Buy position 3329–3332 is running with about 100 pips profit → this trade can be held for longer. o TP1: 3343 o TP2: 3362 o TP3: 3381 • If not in position yet, consider a Buy Limit: o Entry: 3333 – 3330 o SL: 3323 o TP1: 3343 o TP2: 3362 o TP3: 3381 👉 Note: If price breaks below 3324, I will update with new entry levels at lower support zones.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by WavePoint_FX
Red CHoCH Confirms the Bears – Sell at Premium Zone📌 Gold Plan – M30 Timeframe | Captain Vincent ⚓ Background On the D1 chart, the candle closed lower, showing bearish pressure still dominates. On H4, the bearish structure continues. However, Gold is currently stuck around 3345/oz, unable to make a clear breakout. The 3323 – 3335 zone remains strong support – a level where Vincent has bought multiple times before with solid profits. But with the current structure, today’s priority will be Sell in line with the main trend. Sell Zone – Premium 🎯 Entry: 3345 – 3347 SL: 3352 TP: 3340 → 3335 → 3330 → 33xx SMC Note (CHoCH 🔴) On the M30 timeframe, a recent red CHoCH has appeared – a signal confirming that sellers have regained control. This strengthens the case for selling at upper resistance zones. Today’s Scenarios If price holds below 3345 – 3347 → Prioritise short setups, selling in line with the downtrend. If price breaks below current support → High chance the market will move to fill the previous FVG. In that case, wait for a Breakout Down retest to enter safer. Consider entering one small probe trade first, then go in stronger once a reversal candle confirmation appears. Resistance to watch: 3337 – 3345 Support to watch: 3323 – 3335 ⚠️ Captain’s Note: "SMC structure with a red CHoCH has confirmed that the bears are steering the market. We will flow with the main current – Sell at the Premium Zone – but always with discipline, waiting for clear confirmation before taking action."
OANDA:XAUUSD
by CaptainVincent
XAU/USDThis XAU/USD setup is a buy trade, highlighting a bullish outlook on gold. The entry price is 3333, the stop-loss is 3325, and the exit price is 3349. The trade is designed to capture a 16-point profit while risking 8 points, giving a balanced risk-to-reward ratio of 1:2. Buying at 3333 suggests the trader expects upward momentum, which could be supported by a weaker US dollar, easing Treasury yields, or stronger safe-haven demand amid global uncertainties. From a technical perspective, the entry level may align with a short-term support area, providing a strong base for buyers to step in. The target of 3349 is placed near a resistance zone, ensuring profits are secured before potential selling pressure re-emerges. This approach helps lock in gains while respecting market volatility. The stop-loss at 3325 is set carefully below support, limiting downside risk in case bearish momentum takes control. This disciplined approach demonstrates proper risk management, with protection against losses and a clear profit goal. Overall, this trade setup is well-suited for intraday or short-term strategies, focusing on precision, defined risk, and strong reward potential in gold’s dynamic price action.
TVC:GOLDLong
by smohdyusuf66
Gold Trading Strategy for 19th August 2025Gold Trading Strategy (XAUUSD) 📈 Buy Setup (Long Position): Condition to Enter: Enter a buy only after an hourly candle closes above $3343, and price breaks the high of that same one-hour candle. Entry Trigger: Price breaks above the high of the hourly candle that closed above $3343. Targets: 1st Target: $3354 2nd Target: $3365 3rd Target: $3376 Explanation: Waiting for the hourly close above $3343 helps confirm bullish momentum. Entering only after the high of that candle is taken out reduces the risk of possible false breakouts. Gradual profit-booking at multiple levels helps secure gains as price moves higher. 📉 Sell Setup (Short Position): Condition to Enter: Enter a sell only after a 15-minute candle closes below $3323, and price breaks the low of that same 15-minute candle. Entry Trigger: Price breaks below the low of the 15-minute candle that closed below $3323. Targets: 1st Target: $3310 2nd Target: $3300 3rd Target: $3285 Explanation: A close below $3323 on the 15-minute timeframe signals increasing bearish pressure. Waiting for the break of the candle’s low helps confirm continuation. As with the long idea, scaling out at the specified targets helps lock in profits as the trade moves in your favor. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is provided for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or trading advice. All trading involves risk. You are solely responsible for your own trading decisions. Always conduct your own analysis or consult with a licensed financial professional before making any trading decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
TVC:GOLD
by ramkkyy
August 18 Gold AnalysisAugust 18 Gold Analysis Key Viewpoint: Gold prices remain volatile amidst a mix of policy expectations and risk aversion. Technical indicators suggest a rebound, with a focus on the key $3358 level in the short term. I. Trend Reversal and Market Logic 1. Recent Volatility Characteristics - Last Friday, influenced by the unexpectedly strong US PPI data (the largest increase in three years), the market largely ruled out a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. Gold prices remained under pressure in the $3355-3358 range, but support at $3330 remained resilient. - This Monday, gold briefly dipped to $3323 (the middle line of the weekly Bollinger Band) in early Asian trading before rebounding sharply. It surged to $3358 during the European trading session, fully recovering the day's losses and confirming the strength of the $3330-3323 support range. 2. Bullish and Bearish Logic - Repressive Factors: - Resilient inflation weakens expectations of aggressive rate cuts (PPI surged 3.3% year-on-year); - The relatively strong US dollar is limiting gold's upside potential. - Support: - Rate Cut Anchoring Effect: The probability of a 25 basis point Fed rate cut in September remains over 80%, limiting downside potential; - Rising safe-haven demand: Trump's proposed new round of tariffs (rumored semiconductor tariffs could reach 300%) is attracting bargain-hunting; - Technical Buying: Multiple lines of defense have formed in the $3,320-3,330 area, triggering short-covering. II. Technical Structure Analysis 1. Key Price Levels - Lower Support: - First Line of Defense: $3,330 (last week's swing low, tested multiple times); - Core Fortress: $3,323 (weekly Bollinger Band middle line + intraday bottoming rebound starting point). - Upper Resistance: - Short-term Strength and Weakness Dividing Line: $3,358 (last Thursday's rebound high + weekly MA5 moving average); - Breakout Target: $3,374 (recent rebound high). 2. Technical Indicator Signals - Daily Level: - The 5-day moving average turned upward after a death cross, the MACD/KDJ death cross converged, and the RSI formed an initial golden cross; - The price hit a two-week low and then closed with a bullish candlestick, indicating a short-term bottoming pattern. - Bull-Bear Balance Zone: $3330-3358 forms a range-bound trading range. The direction of the breakout will determine the short-term trend. III. Trading Strategy Operational Recommendation: Capture breakout opportunities during volatility 1. Range Trading Strategy - Long Position: - After stabilizing at the $3330-3323 support level, try a light buy with a target of $3355-3358, with a stop-loss below $3315; - If it breaks through $3358, follow the trend and buy, targeting $3370-3374. - Short-term Defense: - Short if the market finds resistance below $3358, targeting $3340-3335, with a stop-loss at $3363; - If the market unexpectedly breaks below $3320, turn short, targeting $3300-3280. 2. Key Risk Warnings - Event Catalysts: - The Federal Reserve meeting minutes (August 20) and Powell's Jackson Hole speech (August 22) may reshape expectations of a rate cut; Trade with caution and manage risk! Best wishes!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Emily357538
Divergence SecretsWhat Are Options? Options are derivative contracts that give the buyer the right (but not the obligation) to buy or sell an underlying asset (like stocks, index, currency, or commodity) at a predetermined price on or before a specific date. Call Option (CE): Right to buy. Put Option (PE): Right to sell. Key Terms in Options To understand options, you must know these basics: Strike Price: The pre-decided price at which you can buy/sell the asset. Premium: The cost you pay to buy the option contract. Expiry Date: The date when the option contract ends. Underlying Asset: The stock, index, or commodity linked to the option. Lot Size: Minimum quantity you can trade in options (e.g., Nifty lot = 50 units). Call vs Put Options Call Option Buyer: Expects price to rise (bullish). Put Option Buyer: Expects price to fall (bearish). Call Option Seller: Expects price to stay below strike. Put Option Seller: Expects price to stay above strike.
TVC:GOLDEducation
by SkyTradingZone
10
XAUUSD Gold Trading Strategy August 18, 2025XAUUSD Gold Trading Strategy August 18, 2025: Gold prices fell 1.79% last week, although Trump and Putin failed to reach an agreement on the key issue, with the focus this week on the Jackson Hole conference. Basic news: Gold traders are closely watching the developments of the meeting between US President Donald Trump and his Ukrainian counterpart Zelensky today to set the terms of a potential peace deal that Trump agreed with Putin in Alaska on Friday. CME's "Fed Watch" report released today, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 15.4%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 84.6%. Technical analysis: Gold prices have rebounded after approaching the support zone of 3325 - 3330. Currently, the bullish pattern of gold prices has not been broken, the possibility of gold prices having a strong increase in the near future. RSI on H1 and H4 frames is showing signs of entering the buying zone, combined with MA tending to expand after the previous sideways movement. Liquidity zones such as 3375 - 3380 and 3395 - 3400 could be profit-taking zones for this growth. Important price zones today: 3325 - 3330 and 3300 - 3305. Today's trading trend: BUY. Recommended orders: Plan 1: BUY XAUUSD zone 3326 - 3328 SL 3323 TP 3331 - 3340 - 3360 - 3390. Plan 2: BUY XAUUSD zone 3300 - 3302 SL 3297 TP 3305 - 3315 - 3335 - 3365 - Open. Plan 3: SELL STOP XAUUSD zone 3320 - 3322 SL 3325 TP 3317 - 3310 - 3305 - 3300. Wish you a new week of safe, successful and profitable trading.🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰
OANDA:XAUUSD
by fludaytoo
XAU/USD: Navigating the Uptrend and Key Support LevelsPrice Structure: Gold has been forming a series of higher highs and higher lows, indicative of a general uptrend. The chart labels a "high" and a "higher high," confirming this bullish structure. Support and Resistance: Two key support areas are identified: Support area S1: A narrow zone around 3,320 USD. The price recently bounced off this area. Support area S2: A broader, more significant zone around 3,290 USD, which appears to have been a strong support level in the past. Several horizontal resistance levels are marked: Immediate resistance: Around 3,351.231 USD and 3,366.029 USD. Higher resistance: At 3,408.819 USD and 3,438.677 USD. Channels and Trendlines: The price has been moving within a series of ascending channels (highlighted in green rectangles), suggesting a stair-step upward movement. A primary ascending trendline (black line) serves as a long-term support, with the price currently hovering just above it. Recent Price Action and Projections: The price recently broke out of a small downtrend and is showing signs of recovery from the "support area S1." A potential price path is drawn with a red arrow, indicating a possible move towards the immediate resistance levels around 3,351 USD and 3,366 USD. The chart highlights two specific price points, 3,360.604 USD and 3,350.685 USD, which likely represent a short-term trading range or target. Volume: The volume spikes visible at key price points (e.g., at the low on July 30 and during the recent drop) indicate strong market activity.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Pipshunter27
Gold Rebounds From 43323 Support, Bulls Eyeing $3380Gold prices dropped to $3323 during early Asian trading and witnessed come back of buyers for value buying off the lows triggering a $25 rally to reach $3358 The profit booking by retail traders may keep momentum sideways as a pullback towards support zone $3345-$3340 is normal however, the immediate trend seems to be biased for upside advance that is likely to reach immediate resistance $3362-$3364 and overhead resistance $3364-$3368 before extension of prevailing bullish rebound towards $3380 Buyers are likely to re engage on dips around local demand zone $3345-$3340 and chances of upward bounce is valid as long as Gold maintains stability above $3340-$3335 If selling intensifies on break below $3340-$3335, decline may extend to $3323-$3318
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SunilKumarDixitSKCharting
Gold Plan 18/08 – Captain VincentBackground For the past two days, Gold has repeatedly tested the 3332 – 3334 zone and slipped down to 3323, showing that buyers at this level are losing strength. The broader trend still leans bullish, but the market is heavily influenced by geopolitics and news events: 📰 US–Russia preparing for a new round of Ukraine talks (15 Aug, Alaska). 🌐 Trump’s tariff stance remains unclear, adding volatility to Gold. 💵 Fed is likely to cut 25bps in September, keeping Gold in “defensive but ready to break out” mode. ➡ With this backdrop, today’s plan requires flexibility: Buy with trend, Sell scalp at key resistances. 1. Buy Scalp – Quick Boarding 🚤 Entry: 3324 – 3326 SL: 3320 TP: 3328 → 3332 → 3336 → 33xx Note: Only suitable for quick scalps, avoid holding longer. 2. Main Buy Zone – Safe Harbor ⚓ Entry: 3313 – 3311 SL: 3304 TP: 3314 → 3319 → 3325 → 3330 Meaning: This is the main launchpad for buyers if price corrects deeper. 3. Sell Scalp Zone – Storm Breaker 🌊 Entry: 3366 – 3377 SL: 3383 TP: 3362 → 3355 → 33xx Meaning: Short-term resistance, ideal for quick reaction sells. 4. Main Sell Zone – Watchtower ⛩ Entry: 3396 – 3394 SL: 3402 TP: 3390 → 3385 → 3380 → 33xx Meaning: Strong resistance zone, highly likely to trigger a bearish reaction. If broken, Gold may extend further into 34xx. Today’s Scenarios If price dips to 3324 – 3326 → Quick Buy Scalp. If price drops deeper → Prefer to Buy at Safe Harbor (3313 – 3311). If price rises to 3366 – 3377 → Short-term Sell Scalp. If price tests 3396 – 3394 → Stronger Sell, this is the main resistance. Captain’s Note: "The Gold ship still sails North ⚓ today, but each time it hits Storm Breaker 🌊 or Watchtower ⛩, the sails will drop for a quick strike before retreating. Waves from Trump–Putin headlines and the Fed’s next move may stir up rough seas. Remember, mates: better to miss one trade than let the waves sink the ship." 🏴‍☠️
OANDA:XAUUSD
by CaptainVincent
Gold Day Trade Plan - Key Buying Oppotunities Ahead Gold (XAU/USD) remains in a bullish structure on the 4H timeframe, where we can clearly see a flag pattern aligning with a bullish order block. This indicates that the overall market sentiment continues to favor the upside. Key Buy Levels Primary Buy Area: $3336 This level stands out as a strong opportunity for intraday buyers. Stop Loss: $3325 (well-defined invalidation point). Secondary Buy Opportunity: $3345 Can also be considered for entry. However, lower timeframe (5-min) confirmation is strongly recommended at this level before executing a trade. Why $3336 is the Best Zone? The $3336 area offers the best risk-reward ratio as it sits closer to the 4H demand zone, giving buyers an edge with a tighter stop loss and higher potential upside. Technical Outlook 4H Chart: Bullish flag pattern + demand zone (order block). Intraday Strategy: Look for liquidity sweeps and confirmation signals near the mentioned buy zones. Risk Management: Place SL below $3325 and manage positions as price approaches resistance levels. 📌 Plan Summary: Buy at $3336 (Best R:R) – SL $3325 Buy at $3345 (with 5m confirmation) Bullish bias remains intact as long as $3325 holds.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by ExoFx-Subhash
Narrative-Based TradingIntroduction Financial markets are often portrayed as mathematical and data-driven—filled with algorithms, technical charts, and economic models. But beneath that seemingly rational layer lies something deeply human: stories. Investors, traders, and even institutions make decisions not just on numbers but also on narratives—coherent stories that explain why markets move, why a company has potential, or why a sector is “the next big thing.” This is the essence of Narrative-Based Trading (NBT). Instead of relying only on earnings, charts, or interest rates, traders also weigh the power of collective belief shaped through stories. Whether it’s the “AI boom,” “India growth supercycle,” “EV disruption,” or “crypto revolution,” narratives influence flows of capital. Robert Shiller, the Nobel laureate economist, introduced the concept of Narrative Economics, where he argued that viral stories influence markets as much as fundamentals do. Traders who understand and anticipate these narratives can position themselves ahead of the crowd. What Is Narrative-Based Trading? Narrative-Based Trading is the strategy of identifying, interpreting, and trading financial assets based on dominant market stories that shape investor psychology. In other words: Markets move not only on facts but also on the stories built around those facts. Traders who can read and ride these narratives can capture big moves. For example: The dot-com bubble (1999–2000) was not just about internet adoption—it was about the story that “the internet will change everything.” The crypto boom (2017 & 2020–21) was not just about blockchain—it was about the story of “decentralized money replacing banks.” The EV rally (2020–22) was not just about electric cars—it was about the story of “the end of fossil fuels.” Narratives can push valuations beyond fundamentals because humans are wired to respond emotionally to stories more than to raw numbers. The Psychology Behind Narrative-Based Trading 1. Humans Think in Stories Cognitive science shows our brains are wired to understand information in the form of narratives. We remember stories far more easily than spreadsheets. For instance: Saying “AI will take over jobs and revolutionize industries” excites emotions more than “AI companies’ CAGR is 14%.” That emotional excitement fuels buying pressure. 2. Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) Narratives spread like memes. Once everyone believes “EV is the future,” investors don’t want to miss the ride. This collective enthusiasm drives prices higher—even when fundamentals lag. 3. Confirmation Bias Investors seek stories that confirm their beliefs. If you believe India is the “next growth superpower,” you’ll look for and invest in stocks that support that story. 4. Social Proof When big investors, influencers, or media outlets endorse a narrative, others follow—just like viral trends on social media. Key Elements of a Market Narrative Every powerful narrative usually contains: A Vision of the Future – e.g., “AI will redefine industries.” A Villain or Obstacle – e.g., “Traditional banks are outdated; DeFi will replace them.” A Hero or Winner – e.g., “Tesla will dominate EV markets.” An Emotional Hook – e.g., “Clean energy will save the planet.” Simplicity – Narratives spread when they’re easy to explain. When a story has all these elements, it spreads fast and influences prices. Historical Examples of Narrative-Driven Markets 1. Dot-Com Bubble (1999–2000) Narrative: “The internet will revolutionize business.” Reality: True, but early. Many companies had no earnings, only websites. Outcome: Nasdaq rose 400% in 5 years, then crashed 78%. 2. Bitcoin & Crypto (2017, 2020–21) Narrative: “Decentralized money will free us from central banks.” Reality: Blockchain has utility, but valuations were inflated by hype. Outcome: Bitcoin rose from $1,000 → $20,000 (2017), then crashed, later reaching $69,000 in 2021. 3. Tesla & EV Mania (2019–2022) Narrative: “The end of oil, EVs will dominate.” Reality: EV adoption is growing, but valuations became extreme. Outcome: Tesla’s stock went from ~$40 in 2019 → $1200 in 2021 before correcting. 4. India Growth Supercycle (2023–2025) Narrative: “India is the next China.” Reality: India has demographics, reforms, and digital adoption. Outcome: Indian indices outperformed, with foreign investors pouring in. Identifying Narratives Early The challenge for traders is spotting a narrative before it goes mainstream. Some tools and signals include: Media Monitoring – Watch financial news, trending topics, and CEO statements. Social Media Sentiment – Platforms like X (Twitter), Reddit, StockTwits, YouTube often amplify narratives before mainstream media catches on. Google Trends – Rising searches for “AI stocks” or “EV companies” show growing interest. Options & Volume Flow – Spikes in call buying often signal retail narrative adoption. Venture Capital Activity – If VCs are pouring billions into a sector, the narrative is building. How to Trade Narratives 1. Early Adoption Phase Narrative is in niche circles (forums, VC blogs). Stocks are undervalued, only a few believers. Strategy: Enter early, accumulate, low risk high reward. 2. Mainstream Adoption Phase Media picks it up, retail floods in. Stocks rally sharply. Strategy: Ride the trend, but manage risk. 3. Euphoria Phase Everyone is talking about it. Valuations detach from fundamentals. Strategy: Take profits, prepare for exit. 4. Collapse / Reality Check Narrative cracks when fundamentals can’t keep up. Price correction or bubble burst. Strategy: Avoid fresh buys, short opportunities possible. Tools and Techniques for Narrative-Based Traders Narrative Mapping Write down the story driving the asset. Identify the hero (leading company/stock), villains (competitors), and catalysts (events). Volume Profile & Market Structure Check if the narrative is supported by actual participation. High volume spikes = narrative adoption. Event Tracking Government policies, product launches, speeches, or geopolitical events can fuel narratives. Cross-Asset Analysis Narratives often spill over. Example: AI narrative lifted not just Nvidia, but also cloud, chipmakers, and robotics. Exit Framework Always define conditions when narrative breaks. Example: If government policy reverses, or adoption slows, exit quickly. Risks of Narrative-Based Trading Hype vs Reality Gap Narratives often run far ahead of fundamentals. Risk: Holding too long into a bubble burst. Confirmation Bias Traders may ignore evidence against the story. Overcrowding Once everyone is in, upside is limited. Policy & Regulation Narratives like crypto or EV subsidies depend heavily on policy support. Short Narrative Lifespan Some stories burn out quickly (e.g., “Metaverse” hype in 2021). Case Study: The AI Narrative (2023–2025) Early Stage (2022): ChatGPT launch → small AI startups gained attention. Adoption (2023): Nvidia earnings blowout, AI “arms race” headlines. Mainstream (2024–2025): AI became part of every investor deck. Euphoria Signs: Even non-AI firms rebranded themselves as “AI-driven.” Trading Strategy: Early buyers of Nvidia, AMD, Microsoft captured 200–400% gains. By late 2024, caution needed as valuations stretched. Narrative vs Fundamentals vs Technicals Fundamentals – Show “what should happen” based on earnings, cash flows. Technicals – Show “what is happening” in price & volume. Narratives – Show “what people believe will happen.” The best traders combine all three: Use narratives for trend identification. Use technicals for timing entries/exits. Use fundamentals for long-term conviction. Building a Narrative-Based Trading Strategy Scan Narratives (media, VC, policy, social buzz). Validate with Data (Google trends, volume, institutional flows). Select Leaders (stocks most associated with narrative). Define Entry Point (technical confirmation). Scale with Trend (add as narrative strengthens). Exit with Rules (valuation excess, fading news, policy reversal). The Future of Narrative-Based Trading AI Tools will help detect emerging narratives via sentiment analysis. Retail Power (Reddit, Telegram, Twitter) will keep driving viral trades. Geopolitical Narratives (e.g., “China vs US tech war”) will grow stronger. Sustainability & ESG Narratives (“Green transition,” “India digitalization”) will dominate long-term. Narrative-based trading will not replace fundamentals but will remain a critical layer of market psychology. Conclusion Narrative-Based Trading reminds us that markets are not just numbers—they are stories we tell ourselves about the future. The most powerful stories spread, shape collective belief, and move billions of dollars. For traders, the key is not blindly following hype but understanding when a story is gaining traction, when it’s peaking, and when reality is about to check it. If you can learn to read market narratives like a storyteller, you can trade not just with charts and balance sheets—but with the heartbeat of the market itself.
TVC:GOLDEducation
by TechnicalExpress
6
GOLD (XAU/USD) - NEW WEEK OUTLOOK: BULLISH SCENARIO ON TRACKGOLD (XAU/USD) - NEW WEEK OUTLOOK: BULLISH SCENARIO ON TRACK Hello and welcome to a fresh week of trading! Similar to Bitcoin, Gold (XAU/USD) is also showing positive momentum at the start of the week. Notably, Gold has successfully broken past its immediate resistance level at $3348. In my analysis, this action confirms a bullish move, at least for today. Therefore, our primary strategy is to go long on Gold. Elliot Wave & Key Price Zones Elliot Wave Analysis: Gold appears to have completed a clean ABC wave corrective pattern. This setup suggests that a new bullish trend may be starting, potentially marking the beginning of a new 5-wave impulse move. While this is a longer-term projection and requires further confirmation, the initial signs are promising. Optimal Entry: The current price action is fast, so an immediate entry might not be ideal. We should wait for a slight pullback or a period of profit-taking from the buyers. A potential entry zone is around $3366, which corresponds to a previous wick zone. Risk Management: If you enter a long position in this area, a tight stop loss of just 4 to 6 points is sufficient to manage risk effectively. Targets and Reversal Potential Upside Target: Our next significant target is the $3390 - $3394 zone. This is a strong resistance area where the price may show a significant reaction or even a reversal. Potential Short Setup: As the price approaches the $3390 - $3394 range, be vigilant for signs of a reversal on lower time frames like the M15 and M5. If a clear reversal pattern or candle structure forms, it could present an opportunity to enter a short position. Refer to the accompanying chart for a visual overview of this trading plan. Wishing you a successful and profitable week with this analysis!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by BrianLionCapital
Gold (XAUUSD) Approaching Key Resistance – Short Setup in PlayGold is approaching a key resistance zone at 3450–3452, where we may start to see downside pressure. 🟡 🔻 Trade Idea: Sell @ 3352 Targets: Refer to marked zones on the chart Invalidation: Setup remains valid as long as 3358.1 is not breached on the upside 📌 Risk-Reward: Tight risk management with strong potential returns 👍 If you found this idea useful, give it a like and share your thoughts in the comments — let’s grow together! Happy Trading, – The InvestPro Team
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by InvestPro_India
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD July 18, 2025 Momentum • D1 timeframe: Momentum is preparing to turn bullish. The current decline has lasted for 5 daily candles – this is often the usual number that completes wave D. Therefore, the current stage is sensitive, and price could reverse upward at any time. However, during such periods, price often sweeps liquidity to the downside first, so caution is required. • H4 timeframe: Momentum is still bearish, suggesting that price may continue falling on Monday. That said, a reversal to the upside on Monday is also possible. • H1 timeframe: Momentum is already in the oversold zone, with the lines sticking together. If price continues to fall at the Asian session open, a gap may appear. In that case, pay close attention to the downside target zones. Wave Structure • D1 timeframe: On the daily chart, we can see a completed abcde corrective structure, followed by a strong rally. The current move is a decline, likely forming waves 1 and 2 (green) within the 5-wave structure of the larger wave 5. The latest D1 candle shows a long upper wick, indicating that selling pressure still remains. • H4 timeframe: A 5-wave impulse (12345, black) has formed, which could represent wave 1 (green). Afterward, a 3-wave ABC correction (purple) developed. The market is likely within wave C (purple) at the moment. With H4 momentum still bearish, this supports the scenario that wave C (purple) is continuing. Key downside targets to watch: 3322 and 3298. • H1 timeframe: Within wave C (purple), a 5-wave impulse (12345, black) is unfolding. The market is currently in the late stage of wave 4 and the start of wave 5. Wave 5 will be confirmed if price breaks below 3331. Key downside targets for wave 5: o Target 1: 3322 o Target 2: 3315 o Target 3: 3299 Trading Plan • Scenario 1: o Buy Zone: 3323 – 3321 o SL: 3312 o TP1: 3333 o TP2: 3350 o TP3: 3381 • Scenario 2: o Buy Zone: 3300 – 3298 o SL: 3290 o TP1: 3333 o TP2: 3350 o TP3: 3381
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by WavePoint_FX
XAU/USDThis XAU/USD setup is a sell trade, reflecting a bearish view on gold. The entry price is 3340, the stop-loss is 3347, and the exit price is 3325. The trade aims for a 15-point profit while risking 7 points, offering a favorable risk-to-reward ratio of more than 1:2. Entering a short position at 3340 signals that the trader expects selling pressure to dominate, possibly due to strength in the US dollar, rising Treasury yields, or reduced safe-haven demand. Technical indicators may also suggest resistance around the entry zone, encouraging sellers to step in. The exit price at 3325 is strategically placed near a support area, giving room for profits to be booked before a potential rebound in prices. This ensures that gains are secured without exposing the trade to unnecessary risk. Meanwhile, the stop-loss at 3347 is positioned just above a resistance level, protecting against unexpected bullish momentum. This balance of risk and reward highlights disciplined trading, where the trader minimizes losses while maximizing profit potential. Overall, this setup is well-suited for short-term strategies that capitalize on gold’s frequent intraday swings.
TVC:GOLDShort
by smohdyusuf66