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GOLD trade ideas

Gold Breaks $3,600/oz: Fed Rate Cut Hype & Trading Setups!Namaste, traders! Gold (XAU/USD) has blasted through $3,600/oz for the first time on Monday (08/09/2025), smashing a new all-time high as weak US jobs data ramps up bets for a Fed rate cut next week. With a massive 38% YTD gain after 27% in 2024, gold's on fire—driven by a weakening USD, central bank hoarding, easing policies, and global uncertainty. For Indian investors, this is prime time amid rising demand and INR volatility. Let’s analyze today’s (09/09/2025) market and spot trading opportunities! 💰 Fundamental Analysis: Why Gold’s Rally Is Unstoppable 🌟 Historic Break: Weak US jobs (August growth slowed, unemployment at 4.3%) has markets pricing in an 88% chance of 0.25% rate cut and 12% for 0.5% in September, per CME FedWatch. Low rates slash the opportunity cost for non-yielding gold—perfect for India’s festive season buys! 📈 Expert View: Peter Grant from Zaner Metals sees gold hitting $3,700–$3,730/oz short-term, with dips as buy chances. Ongoing labor weakness and Fed easing into 2026 will keep supporting it. Global Boosters: China’s PBOC extended gold buys to 10 months in August. Falling USD and 10-year Treasury yields near 5-month lows make gold even more attractive for Indian rupee holders. Data Watch: Eye US PPI (10/09) and CPI (11/09) for Fed clues. Tariff wars and geopolitics add safe-haven fuel—great for India’s gold ETFs and physical demand. Gold’s your ultimate hedge in this setup—will the Fed’s cut keep the party going for Indian portfolios? Technical Analysis: Breakout Frenzy with Traps—Buy the Dips! 📉 Gold’s power surge blew past 3600 with no brakes, but eye the Fibo 2.618 at 3685 for a possible breather. Bullish momentum screams BUY, but watch FVG traps from the fast climb. Key focus: 3641—break below pulls back to 3600; hold above and bulls target 3685. Ideal for Indian traders riding the rupee-gold link! Key Resistance: 3663 - 3673 - 3685 - 3690 Key Support: 3641 - 3629 - 3596 - 3581 Trading Opportunities: Sell Scalp: 3673 - 3675 SL: 3679 TP: 3670 - 3665 - 3660 - 3655 Sell Zone: 3684 - 3686 SL: 3694 TP: 3676 - 3666 - 3656 - 3646 - Open Buy Scalp: 3641 - 3639 SL: 3635 TP: 3644 - 3649 - 3654 - 3659 Buy Zone: 3605 - 3603 SL: 3595 TP: 3613 - 3623 - 3633 - 3643 - Open Gold’s breaking out big, but traps await—confirm at key levels! Holds support? Bulls aim for 3685. 📊💡 #Gold #XAUUSD #Fed #USJobs #TradingView #MarketUpdate #Forex #Investing #TechnicalAnalysis #GoldTrading #Finance #Crypto #IndiaTrading #INR #MCX
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Jeremy_NPC
Gold prices are expected to fluctuate significantly: 3660-3600.Gold prices are expected to fluctuate significantly: 3660-3600. Gold bulls clearly took advantage of today's positive news to take profits, causing the price to drop sharply by nearly $50. Gold prices are likely to fluctuate significantly in the coming days. Intraday Strategy: SELL: 3645-3650 SL: 3660 TP: 3635-3628-3615-3600 The above strategy is suitable for intraday trading. Contrarian short selling depends on market sentiment, which in turn determines the intraday trend of gold prices. When short selling, it is important to remain vigilant and exit as soon as profits are seen. As shown in Figure 2h: Gold's key support area is around 3628-3630. The key turning point for gold prices is in the 3580-3600 range. The market is likely to continue to fluctuate widely over the next day, with a high probability of repeated fluctuations and momentum accumulation, making trading more difficult. I believe that over the next few days, we should focus on key support and resistance levels to buy low and sell high. Gold prices may struggle to reach 3670+ in the short term. The likely range of fluctuation is 3600-3660. A wide range of fluctuations is the most reasonable approach to future gold price trends.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Katyusha202509
XAUUSD – Intraday Plan: Bullish Trend + Key Liquidity ZonesMarket Pulse: The US jobs data (05/09) showed a slowdown in hiring. According to CME FedWatch, there is an 88% chance of a 0.25% Fed rate cut in September, and 12% for a 0.5% cut. Lower rates support gold as a non-yielding asset. Gold has already gained 38% YTD, after rising 27% in 2024. A weaker USD, central bank buying (China added gold for the 10th month in a row in August), loose monetary policy, and global risks keep gold in a strong bullish trend. 👉 Market bias: Macro + liquidity flows favour BUY. Technical View (M30): Price stays in an up channel, making higher lows. 3616–3596 is the key support zone. Liquidity SELL zones at 3653–3655 and 3675–3677 may give short intraday pullbacks before trend continues. Execution Plan (Today): 🔵 BUY ZONE #1: 3618 – 3616 SL: 3610 TP: 3624 → 3630 → 3635 → 3640 → 3650 → 3660 → 3670+ 🔵 BUY ZONE #2: 3598 – 3596 SL: 3590 TP: 3602 → 3606 → 3610 → 3615 → 3620 → 3630 → 3640 → 3650+ 🔴 SELL ZONE #1: 3653 – 3655 SL: 3660 TP: 3648 → 3644 → 3640 → 3635 → 3630 → 3620 🔴 SELL ZONE #2: 3675 – 3677 SL: 3681 TP: 3670 → 3665 → 3660 → 3650 → 3640 Summary: ✅ Gold trend stays bullish – best setups are buying dips into liquidity zones. ⚡ Intraday scalps possible at SELL liquidity zones. 👉 Follow MMFLOW TRADING for daily precision setups.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading
2
Gold: Positive Momentum with Room Towards 3,700Gold continues to draw strength from supportive fundamentals. Rate cut expectations in the US remain strong, while steady inflows into low-cost ETFs are reinforcing the longer-term bullish case. In Asia, weaker GDP data from Japan and disappointing trade numbers from China have added to safe-haven demand. On the 2H chart, the uptrend is visible: price trades above the rising Ichimoku cloud, with successive FVG blocks offering a “ladder” of support. The nearest resistance stands around 3,645–3,650. Below, support is layered at 3,628–3,618, 3,605–3,595, and further down at 3,580–3,565. The likely path is sideways accumulation below 3,650 before another push higher towards 3,670–3,685. If momentum persists, 3,700–3,715 becomes achievable. Weakness would only show if the 2H candle closes under 3,595, and a decisive break of 3,565 would expose 3,540–3,525. CPI and PPI prints from the US, alongside 10Y yield movements, remain the key variables to watch.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by EmmaChartist
Elliott Wave Analysis XAUUSD – 09/09/2025🌀 ————————————- 🔹 Momentum • D1 timeframe: Momentum is still rising but occurs in the overbought zone → the upside potential is limited. • H4 timeframe: Momentum is also in the overbought zone and starting to reverse. Although H4 candles are still pushing up, a divergence is forming → signaling weakening bullish strength. • H1 timeframe: Momentum remains in the overbought zone → no expectation for an extended bullish leg. ————————————- 🔹 Wave Structure • D1 timeframe: o Price is in the final stage of wave iii (black) and preparing for wave iv (black). o By principle, it is better to stay patient and wait for wave iv to complete before looking for Buy entries into wave v (black), rather than trying to catch the top of wave iii. o Current price is approaching the 2.618 Fibonacci extension of wave i (black). • H4 timeframe: o Price is currently within wave v (purple). o Since it has already broken above wave iii (purple), a reversal could happen anytime. o Completion of wave v (purple) will also complete wave iii (black). • H1 timeframe: o Inside wave v (purple), a full 5-wave structure (green) can be counted. o The potential confluence zone for the end of wave 5 (green), wave v (purple), and wave iii (black) is 3669 – 3678. o After this zone, price is expected to correct into wave iv (black), which often develops sideways and shallow. ➡️ Once wave iv (black) is complete, the market is expected to continue higher into wave v (black). ➡️ High liquidity zones highlighted by the Volume Profile will act as support, preventing a deep decline and providing momentum for wave v (black). • Wave iv usually retraces back to the wave 4 of a smaller degree. Currently, we have two key areas: o Wave 4 (green) around 3597 o Wave iv (purple) around 3552 – 3530 ————————————- 🔹 Trading Plan 1. Buy Zone 1: 3598 – 3596 o SL: 3588 (or 3579 for wider risk tolerance) o TP1: 3669 2. Buy Zone 2: 3553 – 3550 o SL: 3540 o TP1: 3597
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by WavePoint_FX
Gold - Buy around 3627, target 3680-3699Gold Market Analysis： Is gold trading aggressive today? Those who prefer to intercept and counter-trend trades and avoid losses are already questioning their lives. The market is like this; it's always right. Yesterday, we analyzed a long position at 3578, but the lowest point was only 3579. It's better to miss out on such a market than to make a mistake. In a one-sided rally, making a mistake is the most damaging. Today's approach remains bullish, and we're watching for buying activity. A surge doesn't have a top, and no one knows where it will be. Based on the current momentum, 3700 is just around the corner. Gold is advancing cautiously, with the daily chart pattern beginning to rise, and buying indicators are also rising. The 5-day moving average has already reached around 3594. There are essentially no selling opportunities above 3594. Yesterday's Monday rally actually exceeded market expectations. This week, I predict gains from Monday to Wednesday, with a daily correction expected on Thursday and Friday, but it will only be a correction, not a major drop. In today's Asian session, we will look for buying opportunities at support at 3627. This level provides minor support in the 1-hour chart and also supports hourly indicators. The Asian session has already reached a new high, indicating continued strength. Buying is recommended. If the price unexpectedly breaks below 3627, we will look for support in the 4-hour chart before buying. We are not considering selling during the Asian session. Support is 3627, with strong support at 3600 and 3594. Resistance is not visible, and the market's strength-weakness dividing line is 3600. Fundamental Analysis: The previous sharp drop in non-farm payroll data led to a surge in gold prices. This week, we will monitor CPI data. Trading Recommendations: Gold - Buy around 3627, target 3680-3699
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by BullMarketKing
Gold (XAUUSD) 1:4 intraday buy scenario.Gold is in up move and forming a good buy scenario on 30/15-minute chart. It can be a very good intraday trade if everything goes as per plan. 1. 30/15m bullish FVG is pending and price is showing pull back towards it. 2. Most probably price will take liquidity of FVG and OTE zone and create MSS in LTF. 3. Order flow confirming bullish bias. 4. Price should show rejection/reversal in LTF at FVG zone. All these combinations are signalling a high probability and high Risk and Reward (1:4) trade scenario. Note – if you liked this analysis, please boost the idea so that other can also get benefit of it. Also follow me for notification for incoming ideas. Also Feel free to comment if you have any input to share. Disclaimer – This analysis is just for education purpose not any trading suggestion. Please take the trade at your own risk and with the discussion with your financial advisor.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by hari_log
Gold Stretched but Strong Waiting for PullbackGold is moving aggressively and relentlessly, day by day, with no signs of exhaustion. The price has once again printed a fresh all-time high and is now trading around 3650, pushing higher without any meaningful rejection on the daily, weekly, or monthly charts. Momentum remains strong, but the rally is clearly stretched, and chasing buys at these levels looks more like FOMO than a high-probability setup. On the Fibonacci extension, the next major resistance is seen at 3681, which also aligns with the monthly R3 level, making it a critical zone to watch. Buying directly into this resistance is risky, and the better approach is to wait for a healthy pullback before looking for new longs. On the downside, 3600 now acts as immediate support, followed by 3550 as the secondary support level. As long as these supports hold, the broader structure remains bullish, but patience will be key for catching the next move.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TheGoldenCircle
Gold Breaks New Highs, Momentum Still Favouring BullsHello everyones, The past week has been quite rewarding for gold as it surged through major resistance levels and printed fresh highs. On the H4 chart, the trend looks very clear: price action is holding firmly above the Ichimoku cloud, with Tenkan sitting comfortably above Kijun, and the cloud slope widening further. Multiple Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) remain unfilled below, showing that buying momentum is powerful and liquidity is being left behind — a signature of a strong rally, not just a short-term move. In terms of price action, the immediate resistance lies between $3,535–3,560. A clean H4 close above this area may unlock the next natural expansion towards $3,580–3,600. On the downside, layered supports are found at $3,520–3,505, then $3,485–3,470, and deeper at $3,440–3,420, coinciding with the upper edge of the cloud, often tested during medium-term uptrends. Fundamentally, the environment still favours buyers: safe-haven demand is rising, the Fed is expected to ease policy sooner, and the USD is weakening, all adding fuel to the bullish case. Unless gold closes back into the cloud and loses the $3,440–3,420 zone, the probability of trend continuation remains high. Do you think gold can stretch further from here? Share your thoughts below!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by EmmaChartist
2
Gold Trading Strategy for 09th September 2025📊 Gold Trading Setup 🟢 Buy Setup Condition: Enter long above the high of the 1-hour candle that closes above $3655. Targets: 🎯 Target 1: $3667 🎯 Target 2: $3678 🎯 Target 3: $3689 🔴 Sell Setup Condition: Enter short below the low of the 1-hour candle that closes below $3616. Targets: 🎯 Target 1: $3605 🎯 Target 2: $3595 🎯 Target 3: $3585 ⚠️ Disclaimer 📌 This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Trading in Gold or any financial instrument involves risk, including potential loss of capital. Please do your own research (DYOR) and consult with a financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by ramkkyy
2
“XAUUSD – Strong Retracement From New All-Time High (ATH) 3650“XAUUSD – Strong Retracement From New All-Time High (ATH) 3650 Gold (XAUUSD) reached the all-time high resistance / PRZ zone (3645–3680) and immediately showed rejection signs, confirming this level as a high-probability reversal point. 📊 Technical Breakdown PRZ Rejection: The move above 3650 failed to sustain, indicating a liquidity grab and false breakout structure. Momentum Exhaustion: A parabolic advance from 3330 support into ATH left behind multiple imbalances (FVGs) that now attract price back down. Liquidity Dynamics: The rejection suggests buy-side liquidity has been taken, and the market may now seek sell-side liquidity below recent swing lows. Market Structure: Intraday structure shows early signs of a bearish shift, with lower highs forming under 3635–3625. 🎯 Downside Targets 3585–3578 → First corrective level (38.2% retracement). 3565 → Key midpoint of the rally. 3545–3516 → Liquidity + 61.8–78.6% retracement cluster. 3480–3460 → Previous consolidation base. 3330–3320 → Major high-timeframe support demand zone. ⚠️ Invalidation If buyers reclaim 3660–3680 with strong daily closes, the bearish retracement scenario will be invalidated, opening the path toward new ATH extensions. 📌 Conclusion: Gold’s rejection at 3650 ATH PRZ is a significant technical signal. Current order flow suggests a retracement phase toward 3580–3515, with potential extension to 3330–3320 key support if selling pressure persists.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Mentor_Michael03
1
XAUUSD – Weekly Trading Plan: Bulls Still in Control MMFLOW TRADING PLAN XAUUSD Market View: Gold (XAUUSD) is trading exactly as expected from our weekly outlook. After the big Nonfarm push near $3600/oz ATH, price is consolidating around 357x–358x while holding the rising trendline. Both Daily and Weekly charts remain bullish, showing that buyers are still strong. The bias for this week stays upside, but volatility can come from key US data (PPI, CPI, Jobless Claims, UoM Sentiment). Technical Outlook (H1 Chart): Structure is bullish as long as price holds above 3550. If 3592 breaks cleanly → more upside towards 3620–3640+. If 3575 or 3530 breaks → expect a pullback before buyers return. Trading Plan: 🔵 BUY ZONE: 3552 – 3550 | SL: 3544 | TP: 3556 → 3560 → 3565 → 3570 → 3575 → 3580 → ???? 🔵 BUY SCALP: 3573 – 3571 | SL: 3567 | TP: 3578 → 3582 → 3586 → 3590 → ???? 🔴 SELL SCALP: 3598 – 3600 | SL: 3604 | TP: 3595 → 3590 → 3585 → 3580 → 3570 → 3560 → ???? 🔴 SELL ZONE: 3631 – 3633 | SL: 3638 | TP: 3626 → 3622 → 3618 → 3614 → 3610 → 3600 → ???? Summary: ✅ Gold remains in a strong uptrend. 👉 Watch 3592 (bullish trigger) and 3575 (bearish trigger) – these levels will decide the next big move. Follow MMFLOW TRADING for daily setups and updates.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MMFlowTrading
XAU/USD – GOLD 08/09 | Captain VincentObserving JPY & USD | Buy still holds dominance 🔎 Captain’s Log – News Context This morning there were no major new updates. The US session tonight (08/09) will also not release big data. The latest impact on the market is Japanese PM S. Ishiba’s resignation , which pressured JPY downward and slightly lifted the Dollar. However, Gold only made a small correction and maintained strong stability. ➡️ Captain’s Summary: Dollar and JPY currently only have indirect influence, not enough to push Gold deeply lower. The main trend is still supported for a bullish rebound. 📈 Captain’s Chart – Technical Analysis Captain’s Shield (Main Support): Golden Harbor OB: 3542 – 3549 Main Buy Zone: 3549 – 3551 Liquidity Dock: 3573 – 3575 Storm Breaker (Resistance): Quick Boarding: 3602 – 3604 (Short-term Sell scalp) Storm Breaker Peak: 3632 – 3634 (Sell zone – may form a new ATH) ⏩ Price structure remains bullish (continuous BOS). Corrections are mainly liquidity grabs before pushing up to higher resistance zones. 🎯 Captain’s Map – Trade Scenarios ✅ Golden Harbor (BUY – Priority) Buy Zone: 3549 – 3551 | SL: 3542 | TP: 3553 → 3557 → 3560 → 3563 → 35xx Liquidity Dock: 3573 – 3575 | SL: 3565 | TP: 3578 → 3581 → 3583 → 35xx ⚡ Quick Boarding (SELL Scalp – Short-term) Entry: 3602 – 3604 SL: 3610 TP: 3600 → 3597 → 3594 → 3591 → 3588 → 35xx 🌊 Storm Breaker (SELL Zone – New ATH) Entry: 3632 – 3634 SL: 3640 TP: 3629 → 3625 → 3623 → 3619 → 361x ⚓ Captain’s Note “The golden ship sails steadily as the seas remain calm this morning, with no big news waves. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3549 – 3551) together with OB near 3542 is the safe anchorage for sailors riding the bullish trend. Liquidity Dock ⚓ (3573 – 3575) is just a temporary anchor before the bullish winds carry the ship further. Quick Boarding 🚤 (3602 – 3604) is for those who want to ride short-term waves. And if the ship touches Storm Breaker 🌊 (3632 – 3634) , it may be a new wave peak – but the grand journey is still headed North with the bullish sails full of wind.”
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CaptainVincent
Gold Surges 37% YTD: Fed Cuts, Jobs Slump & Trade Setups!Namaste, traders! Gold (XAU/USD) has skyrocketed 37% in 2025, building on a 27% rally in 2024, fueled by a weakening USD, central bank buying, loose monetary policies, and global economic/geopolitical unrest. With US jobs growth tanking in August 2025 and unemployment climbing to 4.3%, markets are betting big on Fed rate cuts: 90% chance of 0.25% and 10% for 0.5% in September. Let’s dive into today’s (08/09/2025) action and uncover trading opportunities tailored for Indian investors! 💰 Fundamental Analysis: Why Gold Keeps Shining Bright 🌟 Massive Rally: Gold thrives in low-rate, high-uncertainty environments—perfect for India’s gold-loving market! Weak USD and central bank purchases are key drivers. 📈 US Jobs Slump: August data shows a sharp slowdown in hiring and a 4.3% unemployment rate, boosting Fed rate cut expectations and safe-haven demand. Fed Drama Fuels Gold: Trump’s attempt to sack Fed Governor Lisa Cook and pressure for rate cuts has sparked legal battles, shaking USD confidence. Tariff tensions (Trump’s appealing to the Supreme Court after lower court losses) further drive gold as a hedge. Standard Chartered sees more upside amid these uncertainties. Demand Dip in India: Record-high prices have slowed physical gold demand in India and China this week, but the bullish outlook remains strong for Indian investors chasing safety. Gold’s your ultimate bet in this volatile market—will the Fed’s next move keep the rally alive? Technical Analysis: Breakouts & Liquidity Grabs—Stay Sharp! 📉 In today’s early Asian session, gold dipped to 358x before a swift rebound, smashing last week’s ATH resistance at 3600 and hitting 361x. No major news triggered this spike, but continuous ATHs mean fast liquidity sweeps—beware of traps! Avoid FOMO: Focus on broken round levels for BUY setups or structure breaks at round numbers for SELL, but watch out for false breakouts. Key Resistance: 3614 - 3624 - 3634 - 3644 Key Support: 3597 - 3581 - 3574 - 3566 - 3560 - 3550 Trading Opportunities: Sell Scalp: 3624 - 3626 SL: 3630 TP: 3621 - 3616 - 3611 - 3606 Sell Zone: 3634 - 3636 SL: 3644 TP: 3626 - 3616 - 3606 - 3596 Buy Scalp: 3596 - 3594 SL: 3591 TP: 3599 - 3604 - 3609 - 3614 Buy Zone: 3581 - 3579 SL: 3571 TP: 3589 - 3599 - 3609 - 3619 Gold’s breaking out, but fakeouts are everywhere—wait for confirmations at key levels! If supports hold, bulls could push for new highs. 📊💡
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Jeremy_NPC
Gold 1H – Smart Money Plays Below 3,600Gold on the 1H timeframe is consolidating close to 3,600 after sweeping short-term liquidity. Price is currently forming imbalance around intraday highs, while demand is positioned lower at 3,565. This structure suggests engineered moves designed to trap both buyers and sellers before the next expansion. ________________________________________ 📌 Key Structure & Liquidity Zones (1H): • 🔼 Buy Zone 3,565 – 3,563 (SL 3,560): Discount demand block, aligned with bullish order flow. • 📍 Scalp Sell Zone 3,594 – 3,596 (SL 3,601): Intraday rejection pocket; scalp opportunity. • 🔽 Sell Zone 3,630 – 3,628 (SL 3,637): Premium supply zone, suitable for liquidity sweep reaction. ________________________________________ 📊 Trading Ideas (Scenario-Based): 🔺 Buy Setup – Demand Block Reaction • Entry: 3,565 – 3,563 • Stop Loss: 3,560 • Take Profits: o TP1: 3,585 o TP2: 3,595 o TP3: 3,600+ 👉 Expectation is for liquidity sweep into discount demand before resuming bullish trend. 🔻 Sell Scalp Setup – Intraday Reaction • Entry: 3,594 – 3,596 • Stop Loss: 3,601 • Take Profits: o TP1: 3,592 o TP2: 3,590 o TP3: 3,585 → 3,580 → 3,570 → 3,560 👉 Short-term liquidity pocket; scalp trades only with strict risk control. 🔻 Sell Setup – Premium Rejection • Entry: 3,630 – 3,628 • Stop Loss: 3,637 • Take Profits: o TP1: 3,610 o TP2: 3,600 o TP3: 3,590 👉 Targeting liquidity lying below intraday lows; best for quick short opportunities. ________________________________________ 🔑 Strategy Note Overall bias remains bullish, but smart money may engineer a sweep of 3,626–3,630 supply before driving price back into 3,565 demand. Cleaner setup is to buy dips, while sell scalps are short-lived opportunities.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Ryan_TitanTrader
xau paper trade placedjuda swing completed in asian session..now london will continue bearish , Asian Session Recap: Price action showed a completed swing, likely testing a key resistance zone before reversing. London Session Setup: Bias: Bearish continuation expected, especially if price remains below intraday resistance zones. Key Resistance: Watch the $3,500–$3,530 zone for potential rejection. Support Targets: First target: $3,470 zone Extended target: $3,430–$3,440 zone if momentum picks up Indicators to Watch: DXY strength (U.S. Dollar Index): If it holds above 97.70, gold may stay pressured Volume and volatility spikes around London open
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by livecalls
Gold sentiment Here is a detailed technical and sentiment analysis for gold incorporating RSI, MACD, Ichimoku, and Volume, based on the charts and data you provided, followed by a concrete trading strategy. Overall Sentiment: Bullish Exhaustion at a Critical Juncture The market is in a state of powerful bullish momentum fueled by weak economic data (NFP) but is showing clear technical signs of exhaustion and overbought conditions. This creates a high-risk environment where a significant pullback is increasingly probable before any next leg up. --- Technical Indicator Analysis While your charts don't show the indicators directly, we can infer their likely state based on the price action and standard settings. 1. Relative Strength Index (RSI - Typically 14-period): · Likely Reading: On the Daily (1D) and 4H charts, the RSI is almost certainly in overbought territory (above 70, likely even above 80). · Analysis: This confirms the market is overbought. The minor pullbacks on the 2H and 4H charts (shown by the small red candles) are likely causing the RSI to dip from extreme levels, but it remains elevated. This is a classic warning sign of a potential reversal or consolidation. 2. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD - Typically 12,26,9): · Likely Reading: On all timeframes, the MACD is above its signal line and at or near extreme highs. · Analysis: This supports the strong bullish momentum. However, on the shorter timeframes (2H, 4H), we should be watching for bearish divergence (price making equal or higher highs while the MACD makes lower highs). This would be a strong short-term sell signal. The current consolidation increases the probability of this divergence forming. 3. Ichimoku Kinko Hyo: · Price vs. Cloud (Kumo): The price is ** dramatically above the Senkou Span (Cloud)** on the daily chart. This indicates an extremely strong bullish trend but also a massive extension from its mean, suggesting a pullback towards the cloud is a high probability. · Tenkan-sen (Conversion Line) vs. Kijun-sen (Base Line): The Tenkan-sen is almost certainly far above the Kijun-sen, confirming the strong trend. A crossing below would be a strong short-term bearish signal. · Future Cloud: The cloud is likely bullish (green) and thinning, suggesting underlying trend strength but potential for volatility. 4. Volume: · Analysis: The COT report is a form of volume analysis. The ** surge in open interest (+49,148 contracts)** from the 09/02 report, driven by new speculator longs, represents a massive influx of volume and commitment. However, this often marks climactic buying, not a sustainable pace. In the price charts, the consolidation near the highs on declining volume would be a bearish sign, indicating a lack of new buyers at these levels. Synthesis of All Factors Factor Analysis Implication Fundamental (NFP) Very Bullish. Weak data = weak USD, dovish Fed. Long-term trend is UP. COT (Speculative Sentiment) Extremely Bullish (Overheated). Record net long positioning. High short-term risk of a sharp pullback. Price Trend Bullish but Stalling. Consolidating at all-time highs. Indecision; potential exhaustion. RSI Overbought on higher timeframes. Suggests a correction is due. MACD Bullish but potential for bearish divergence. Momentum may be waning. Ichimoku Price extremely extended from Cloud. Suggests a pullback is likely. Volume (via COT) Climactic buying. Often marks a short-term peak. --- Trading Strategy for Today Core Principle: The trend is still up, but the risk/reward for new long entries at the current price is very poor. The optimal strategy is to wait for a technical correction to buy into strength or prepare for a reversal signal. Scenario 1: Wait for a Pullback to Buy (Highest Probability & Prudence) · Idea: Use the overbought signals and Ichimoku analysis to anticipate a pullback to a stronger support zone. · Entry Zone: $3,480 - $3,520. This area aligns with previous resistance (now support) and a potential pullback towards the rising Tenkan-sen or Kijun-sen on the 4H chart. · Confirmation: Look for bullish reversal candlesticks (hammer, bullish engulfing) and an RSI pulling back towards 50 (but not oversold). · Stop Loss: A daily close below $3,450. · Target: A move back towards the highs at $3,580 - $3,600. Scenario 2: Breakout Trade (Lower Probability, Higher Risk) · Idea: If the bullish momentum ignores all overbought signals. · Entry: A sustained 4H or daily close above $3,610. · Confirmation: The MACD should make a new high (avoiding divergence) and volume should increase on the breakout. · Stop Loss: Below $3,590. · Target: $3,650 - $3,680. Use a trailing stop. Scenario 3: Aggressive Fade (For Experienced Traders) · Idea: Fade the extreme bullish sentiment using bearish divergence and overbought RSI. · Entry: On a clear bearish divergence on the 4H MACD (price makes a new high, MACD makes a lower high) AND a rejection from the $3,590 - $3,600 resistance level. · Stop Loss: A close above $3,610. · Target: $3,520 - $3,540. Key Risk Management Note: · NFP Event Risk: The next NFP release is TODAY (Sep 09, 19:30 GMT). This will cause massive, unpredictable volatility. · Action: DO NOT enter new positions before this release. The market's reaction to the news will dictate the next major direction. If you are in a position, strongly consider reducing size or hedging. Summary Table for Action Strategy Entry Stop Loss Target Confidence Pullback Buy $3,480 - $3,520 < $3,450 $3,580 - $3,600 High Breakout Buy $3,610 < $3,590 $3,650 - $3,680 Low Aggressive Fade ~$3,595 + Divergence $3,610 $3,520 - $3,540 Medium Final Conclusion: The technical indicators (RSI, MACD, Ichimoku) all align with the COT data to scream "Overbought!" The fundamental driver is strong, but the market needs to cool off. The best trade is no trade until after the NFP news or a pullback into support. Patience will be rewarded with a much better risk-to-reward entry.
FXOPEN:XAUUSD
by Rakeshkanmuse0_6
XAUUSD/Gold 1H Buy Projection – 08.09.25🔎 Chart Analysis Price Action Current price: 3588.15 Support Zone (S1): Around 3575 – 3578 Resistance Zones: R1 ≈ 3590 R2 ≈ 3600+ Projection shows a possible bounce from support → break R1 → move toward R2. Indicators Stochastic (5,3,3): Current: %K 21.78, %D 31.90 Oversold region → “Tends to Buy” signal. RSI (14): Value: 58.55 (above 50) Suggests short-term uptrend momentum. Overall Projection Market bias: Bullish (Buy Setup) If price respects support at S1, probability is high for upside movement towards R1 → R2. Risk: If support S1 breaks, downtrend continuation is possible. ✅ Summary (08.09.25): Buy Bias on 1H timeframe. Support: 3575 zone Target 1: 3590 (R1) Target 2: 3600 (R2) Indicators confirm bullish momentum (RSI > 50, Stoch oversold).
FXOPEN:XAUUSDLong
by kripsonfx97
Gold Marks New ATH at 3600 – Bulls Still in ControlGold closed last week on a very strong note, posting its highest daily and weekly close and also printing a new all-time high at 3600, which now stands as an important psychological resistance Level. The overall price action structure continues to favor the bulls, with no major signs of reversal visible on any time frame. For this week, the weekly pivot at 3541 will be going to act as the first line of support, followed by the previous ATH at 3500 as the secondary and more critical level to hold. While some consolidation or pullback from current levels cannot be ruled out given the stretched rally and overbought conditions (daily,H4) these dips can be viewed as healthy rather than bearish. As long as gold holds above 3500 on a closing basis, the broader trend remains bullish, and any corrective moves are likely to attract buying interest. In short, unless bears can force a decisive break below 3500 (Daily close or week), gold bullish momentum remains intact, with scope for continuation above 3600 once consolidation is done.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TheGoldenCircle
XAUUSD – Early Week Trading ScenarioXAUUSD – Early Week Trading Scenario Hello Traders, The Asian session opened the new week with mild fluctuations in gold, followed by a pullback into the major liquidity zone created during last week’s bullish wave. At present, price is showing signs of breaking below the 3585 support. If a strong M15 candle closes under this level, it can be considered a short-term correction signal. In that case, a light sell position may be initiated, targeting the 3560 zone. The 3560 level stands out as a reliable support, aligning with the ascending trendline. This makes it a key area for buying in line with the prevailing uptrend, with the potential for price to extend higher and even revisit its all-time highs. However, if price climbs back to retest the trendline, any short positions from that area should be approached cautiously and only with clear confirmation. Another potential buy zone lies near 3516, where the market previously cleared the liquidity from the closest FVG. Overall, gold is likely to require some corrective moves before continuing its broader trend. In particular, short trades should only be considered when the reversal structure is clearly validated. This is my trading perspective for gold today. Please take it as a reference for your own strategies.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by BrianLionCapital