XAU next planAccording to the XAU 15-minute chart, gold is showing a bullish trend up to the 3365–3366 level. After that, it is expected to continue bearish.
educational purpose only.
GOLD trade ideas
XAU/USDThis XAU/USD setup is a sell trade, reflecting a bearish view on gold. The entry price is 3340, the stop-loss is 3347, and the exit price is 3325. The trade aims for a 15-point profit while risking 7 points, offering a favorable risk-to-reward ratio of more than 1:2.
Entering a short position at 3340 signals that the trader expects selling pressure to dominate, possibly due to strength in the US dollar, rising Treasury yields, or reduced safe-haven demand. Technical indicators may also suggest resistance around the entry zone, encouraging sellers to step in.
The exit price at 3325 is strategically placed near a support area, giving room for profits to be booked before a potential rebound in prices. This ensures that gains are secured without exposing the trade to unnecessary risk.
Meanwhile, the stop-loss at 3347 is positioned just above a resistance level, protecting against unexpected bullish momentum. This balance of risk and reward highlights disciplined trading, where the trader minimizes losses while maximizing profit potential. Overall, this setup is well-suited for short-term strategies that capitalize on gold’s frequent intraday swings.
Gold on the Verge of a Breakout – Is $3,425 the Next Target?Hi everyone, looking at the XAU/USD 4H chart, gold is showing a tight consolidation after several sessions moving sideways between $3,330 – $3,350. This kind of price action often signals that a big move is coming. The Ichimoku cloud is narrowing, reinforcing the idea that the market is preparing to choose a clear direction.
One key factor is the green FVG zone around $3,310 – $3,320, which is acting as a strong support base. If prices dip, this zone is likely to hold and keep the bullish trend intact. At the same time, trading volume has been ticking higher, hinting that buying pressure is quietly building up.
On the news side, safe-haven demand remains solid after the Trump–Putin meeting ended without concrete results. Adding to that, Citi has forecasted gold could head toward the $3,500 – $3,600 range in the medium term, which strengthens the bullish outlook.
Main Scenario: As long as gold stays above $3,335, a breakout above $3,365 – $3,385 looks likely, which could pave the way toward the $3,425 – $3,450 zone.
In my view, this might be the real breakout instead of just another false move. What do you think – will gold finally reach new highs next week?
Gold trading range - 18 August 2025I have done a back testing of a Fibonacci - combined with swing calculation on a 15-30 min. Chart & on the basis of that I am making my first prediction on trading view as a publication. Tomorrow first we should see a downward move in the market. Till the levels marked in the chart. & then it should be a change in the swing. I will put an update once the swing shows a change.
XAUUSD Continues Bearish Trend, Testing Key SupportGold is currently trading around 3,335 USD, closing near an important support zone, as highlighted in the chart. The precious metal continues its bearish trend, pressured by the 0.9% increase in the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for July. This indicates persistent inflationary pressure, reinforcing the Fed's stance on maintaining high interest rates, which weakens gold's appeal.
Technical Levels:
The current price is approaching a key support zone between 3,328 USD – 3,273 USD, where a potential bounce could occur if price action confirms a reversal.
The trend remains bearish as long as the price stays below the 3,370 USD resistance, consistent with the pattern of lower highs and lower lows.
A break below the 3,328 USD support could trigger further downside, with the next target at 3,273 USD.
Conclusion:
With the PPI data adding pressure, and the price nearing a crucial support zone, the outlook remains bearish for gold. Traders should monitor price action at the support levels for potential sell opportunities.
Gold short term Technical Outlook -August/Sep 2025📉 Gold Technical Outlook – Double Top in Play
Gold has recently formed a double top pattern, which is a classic bearish reversal setup.
A double top occurs when price reaches a resistance level twice and fails to break above it. This creates two peaks at nearly the same level — indicating strong selling pressure and a potential shift from an uptrend to a downtrend.
In this case:
The two tops suggest that buyers are losing strength.
Once the neckline (support level between the two tops) is broken, a downward trend usually begins.
The market is currently moving downward after the failure to break the recent highs.
🔻 Bearish Targets (as long as price stays below 3450):
Target Number Price Level
🎯 1st Target 3240
🎯 2nd Target 3120
🎯 Final Target 3030
❌ Invalidation Level (Negated Scenario)
This bearish view becomes invalid if gold moves above 3450 — in other words, a strong daily/4h close above 3450 would cancel the double top setup and signal a possible bullish breakout instead.
📝 Double Top Pattern – Quick Explanation
The pattern looks like the letter “M” on the chart.
It is formed by two consecutive swing highs at approximately the same price level.
The bottom between those highs forms the neckline (support).
When price breaks below the neckline, it confirms the pattern.
After confirmation, traders expect a trend reversal and place downward targets.
In simple terms — the market tried to go higher two times and failed, so now sellers are taking control.
Great — here is a simple diagram to help you visualize the double top pattern:
⛰️ ⛰️
/ \ / \
/ \ / \
/ \ / \
-----/--------\/--------\------ ⇦ resistance (two tops)
| |
| |
| |
-----\________/---------------- ⇦ neckline (support)
🔻 Breakdown below the neckline
Explanation:
The two ⛰️ peaks at the top represent the double top — price reaches the same resistance level twice and gets rejected both times.
The horizontal line in the middle is the neckline (support area).
When the price breaks below the neckline, it confirms the pattern and indicates that sellers have taken control → downtrend begins.
Gold Trading Strategy for 18th August 2025 📌 Gold Intraday Plan – One-Hour Breakout Strategy
🟢 BUY Setup (Bullish Scenario)
💡 Wait for a one-hour candle to close above $3349.
Once the candle closes above $3349:
✅ Enter BUY position above the high of that breakout candle
🎯 Target 1: $3361
🎯 Target 2: $3374
🎯 Target 3: $3390
🔒 Stop Loss: Place the stop just below the low of the breakout candle that initiated the move
📈 Example Logic (Bullish case)
If the 1h candle closes at $3351 with a high of $3353 → place a buy stop at $3353 → then target the three levels sequentially ($3361 / $3374 / $3390).
Trail your stop-loss after each target is reached to lock in profit ✅
✨ Additional Bullish Confirmation Points
Rising one-hour RSI 🔼
Increasing volume 📊 on the breakout
Price sustaining above $3349 without aggressive rejection
🔻 SELL Setup (Bearish Scenario)
💡 Wait for a one-hour candle to close below $3329.
Once the candle closes below $3329:
❌ Enter SELL position below the low of that breakdown candle
🎯 Target 1: $3319
🎯 Target 2: $3305
🎯 Target 3: $3290
🔒 Stop Loss: Place the stop just above the high of the breakdown candle
📉 Example Logic (Bearish case)
If the 1h candle closes at $3325 with a low of $3323 → place a sell stop at $3323 → then approach targets one by one ($3319 / $3305 / $3290).
Trail the stop-loss down after each target is hit for capital protection 🔐
✨ Additional Bearish Confirmation Points
Dropping one-hour RSI 🔽
Significant increase in sell volume 📉
Continuous rejection of $3329 as resistance after breakdown 🔁
⚠️ Important Notes for Both Directions
💼 Trade only after candle CLOSES (no early entries on wicks)
⏱ Plan is valid for regular London & New York sessions
🔄 Avoid taking both long and short in sideways/low volume range
📌 Use a disciplined approach — respect stop loss and trail accordingly
Options Trading in India1. Introduction to Options Trading
Options trading has become one of the fastest-growing segments of the Indian financial market. Once considered a playground only for institutions and advanced traders, options are now widely accessible to retail investors thanks to online trading platforms, mobile apps, and reduced brokerage costs.
In India, the NSE (National Stock Exchange) is the world’s largest derivatives exchange in terms of contracts traded, with Bank Nifty and Nifty 50 options leading the charge. For retail traders, options present opportunities for hedging, speculation, and income generation, making them versatile instruments.
But options are also complex. Unlike stocks, where you directly own a piece of a company, options are derivative contracts—their value depends on the price of an underlying asset. This makes them both powerful and risky if not understood properly.
2. What are Options?
An option is a financial contract that gives the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an underlying asset at a predetermined price (strike price) before or on a specific date (expiry).
Call Option → Right to buy an asset at a strike price.
Put Option → Right to sell an asset at a strike price.
Unlike futures contracts, option buyers are not obligated to execute the trade. They can choose to let the option expire worthless if the trade doesn’t go their way.
3. Key Terms in Options Trading
Strike Price: The price at which you can buy/sell the underlying.
Premium: The cost paid to buy the option.
Expiry Date: Last day the option is valid (weekly/monthly in India).
Lot Size: Minimum tradable quantity (e.g., Nifty options = 25 units per lot).
ITM (In the Money): Option has intrinsic value.
ATM (At the Money): Strike price = underlying price.
OTM (Out of the Money): Option has no intrinsic value.
4. How Options Work (Indian Example)
Let’s take an example with Nifty 50 trading at ₹22,000:
Suppose you buy a Nifty 22,200 Call Option for a premium of ₹100 (lot size = 25).
Total cost = 100 × 25 = ₹2,500.
Case 1: Nifty goes up to 22,400
Intrinsic value = 22,400 – 22,200 = ₹200
Profit per lot = (200 – 100) × 25 = ₹2,500
Case 2: Nifty stays at 22,000 or falls
Option expires worthless.
Loss = Premium paid = ₹2,500
This asymmetry—limited risk, unlimited reward—is what attracts many retail traders to options.
5. Why Trade Options?
Leverage: Trade larger positions with smaller capital.
Hedging: Protect your portfolio against market falls.
Speculation: Bet on market direction with limited risk.
Income Generation: Write (sell) options to earn premium.
6. Options Market in India
Introduced in 2001 by NSE with index options.
Stock options followed in 2002.
India now has weekly expiries for Nifty, Bank Nifty, and FinNifty.
SEBI & Exchanges regulate margin rules, position limits, and trading practices.
The retail participation in options has exploded post-2020 with apps like Zerodha, Upstox, Angel One, Groww, making it extremely easy to trade.
7. Option Premium & Pricing (The Greeks Simplified)
Premium depends on:
Intrinsic Value = difference between spot & strike.
Time Value = extra value based on time to expiry & volatility.
The Greeks explain sensitivity of option price:
Delta: Sensitivity to underlying price.
Theta: Time decay (options lose value as expiry nears).
Vega: Sensitivity to volatility.
Gamma: Rate of change of Delta.
For example, Indian traders often notice how Bank Nifty weekly options lose value rapidly on expiry day (Theta decay)—which is why option sellers make money on “expiry day trading.”
8. Types of Options in India
Index Options – Nifty 50, Bank Nifty, FinNifty (most liquid).
Stock Options – Individual companies like Reliance, TCS, HDFC Bank.
Currency Options – USD/INR, EUR/INR (for forex hedging).
9. Options Trading Strategies
Basic Strategies
Long Call → Buy call, bullish.
Long Put → Buy put, bearish.
Covered Call → Own stock + sell call for income.
Protective Put → Own stock + buy put for protection.
Intermediate Strategies
Straddle: Buy Call + Put at same strike (bet on volatility).
Strangle: Buy Call (higher strike) + Put (lower strike).
Bull Call Spread: Buy low strike call + sell higher strike call.
Bear Put Spread: Buy put + sell lower strike put.
Advanced Strategies
Iron Condor: Range-bound strategy selling OTM call + put spreads.
Butterfly Spread: Profit from low volatility near strike.
Ratio Spreads: Adjust risk/reward with multiple options.
10. Margin Requirements & Leverage
Option buyers: Pay only premium (small capital).
Option sellers (writers): Need large margin (higher risk).
NSE SPAN + Exposure margin system determines requirements.
For example, selling 1 lot of Bank Nifty option may require ₹1.5–2 lakh margin depending on volatility.
11. Taxation of Options in India
Treated as business income under Income Tax Act.
Classified as non-speculative business income (since traded on exchange).
Profits taxed as per slab rate; audit required if turnover exceeds limits.
12. Risks in Options Trading
Time decay eats premium if direction isn’t quick.
Volatility crush reduces premium post-events (like RBI policy).
Unlimited risk for sellers if market moves sharply.
Liquidity issues in some stock options.
13. Options Trading Psychology
Requires discipline & patience—most beginners lose by overtrading.
Emotions like fear of missing out (FOMO) or greed destroy capital.
Successful option traders often specialize in 1–2 instruments (e.g., Bank Nifty weekly options).
14. Conclusion
Options trading in India has transformed from a niche product for institutions into a mainstream retail trading instrument. The flexibility of calls and puts allows traders to profit in any market—rising, falling, or sideways. However, the high leverage and complexity mean traders must respect risk management, taxation rules, and psychology.
For beginners, the right path is to:
Start with small option buying.
Learn option chain, Greeks, and price behavior.
Slowly graduate to spreads and hedged strategies.
Avoid naked selling until well-capitalized.
With discipline, knowledge, and the right strategies, options can become a powerful tool for wealth creation, hedging, and trading opportunities in India’s growing markets.
Gold form double top bearish pattern,Bearish Patterns Annotated:
Double Top: A classic bearish reversal pattern resembling an "M" shape. It occurs when price hits resistance twice at similar levels (here, approximately $3,437 and $3,448 in July and August) and fails to break higher. This signals potential exhaustion of buyers and a shift to sellers.
Evening Star: A three-candle bearish reversal pattern marked near the recent high. It typically consists of a large green candle (up day), followed by a small-bodied candle (indecision), and then a large red candle closing below the midpoint of the first candle. This suggests bulls are losing control.
Engulf Candle (Bearish Engulfing): A red candle that completely "engulfs" the body of the prior green candle, indicating strong selling pressure overriding previous buying. It's marked near the top, reinforcing the reversal theme.
Opportunity: - As per chart it can short 3380-3350 with stop loss 3400 above for the targets of double bottom pattern 3260 and 3160.
Momentum TradingIntroduction
Momentum trading is one of the most popular and widely practiced trading strategies across global markets. At its core, momentum trading is based on a very simple principle: “buy strength and sell weakness.” Instead of betting on reversals or bottoms, momentum traders focus on securities that are already moving in a strong direction and aim to ride the wave until it slows down.
The logic comes from both psychology and market mechanics. When a stock is rising rapidly, it tends to attract more buyers—retail traders chasing quick profits, institutions reallocating capital, and algorithms detecting breakouts. Similarly, when a stock is falling fast, fear intensifies and selling accelerates. Momentum trading tries to capture these waves of fear and greed before they exhaust themselves.
In this guide, we’ll explore momentum trading from every angle: definitions, psychology, tools, strategies, examples, risk management, and how it applies in the Indian and global markets. By the end, you’ll have a comprehensive understanding of why momentum trading works, how to practice it, and the pitfalls to avoid.
1. What is Momentum Trading?
Momentum trading refers to a strategy where traders buy securities showing upward price strength and sell securities showing downward price weakness. Instead of betting on valuation or fundamentals, momentum traders rely on price action and volume as primary signals.
The central belief is:
Strong stocks tend to get stronger (in the short to medium term).
Weak stocks tend to get weaker (until a reversal happens).
Momentum trading is often compared to surfing—you wait for a strong wave (trend) and then ride it until the momentum slows.
Key Features of Momentum Trading
Trend Following Nature – Momentum trading doesn’t try to predict tops or bottoms, but rides existing trends.
Short to Medium-Term Focus – Trades can last from a few minutes (intraday momentum scalping) to several weeks (swing momentum).
High Liquidity Preference – Traders focus on liquid stocks, indices, or futures where volumes confirm momentum.
Psychological Basis – Fear of missing out (FOMO) and panic selling fuel momentum.
Quantitative Edge – Many hedge funds run momentum-based quant models, proving its long-term viability.
2. The Psychology Behind Momentum Trading
Momentum exists because of human behavior. Prices don’t move in a straight line only due to fundamentals—they move because of crowd psychology.
Psychological Drivers
Fear of Missing Out (FOMO): When a stock is moving up rapidly, traders fear missing profits and jump in late, pushing prices further.
Herd Mentality: Investors follow the crowd. If everyone is buying, the upward momentum strengthens.
Panic Selling: In downtrends, fear spreads faster than rational thought, accelerating declines.
Overreaction & Underreaction: Markets often overreact to news (creating short-term spikes) or underreact (causing gradual momentum).
In short, momentum thrives on emotion and confirmation bias—traders believe a move will continue simply because it has already started.
3. Foundations of Momentum Trading
3.1. Price Action
Momentum traders rely heavily on price charts. A breakout above resistance, a strong trendline move, or a sudden gap-up can signal momentum.
3.2. Volume
Volume is the oxygen of momentum. A price move without volume is weak; a move with surging volume is powerful. High volume confirms institutional participation.
3.3. Timeframes
Intraday: Momentum trades lasting minutes to hours.
Swing: Trades held for 2–10 days, riding short-term momentum.
Positional: Trades lasting weeks, catching medium-term momentum waves.
4. Tools and Indicators for Momentum Trading
Momentum trading blends technical analysis with volume and sentiment tools.
4.1. Moving Averages
20-day and 50-day EMAs: Used for spotting momentum shifts.
Golden Cross / Death Cross: Bullish or bearish momentum triggers.
4.2. Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Measures speed of price movement.
Momentum traders often buy in strong uptrends when RSI is above 50 but not yet overbought.
4.3. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)
Helps spot acceleration in trends.
A rising MACD line indicates bullish momentum.
4.4. Volume Profile
Shows at what price levels heavy trading occurred.
Helps identify zones where momentum may stall.
4.5. Breakout & Breakdown Levels
Stocks breaking above resistance or falling below support with volume are momentum favorites.
4.6. Relative Strength (RS)
Comparing a stock’s performance to the market index helps identify leaders and laggards.
5. Strategies in Momentum Trading
Momentum trading can be applied in multiple ways depending on risk appetite and timeframe.
5.1. Breakout Trading
Buy when price breaks above resistance with strong volume.
Sell when price breaks below support with strong volume.
5.2. Pullback Momentum
Enter on small retracements in an ongoing trend.
Safer than chasing extended moves.
5.3. Intraday Momentum Scalping
Exploit sudden volume bursts (news-based, large orders, or gap opens).
Very fast-paced; requires discipline.
5.4. Sector Momentum Rotation
Focus on the hottest sectors (IT, banking, pharma, etc.).
Momentum usually flows from sector leaders to laggards.
5.5. News & Earnings Momentum
Positive earnings surprises create strong upward momentum.
Negative news can lead to breakdowns.
5.6. Quantitative Momentum Models
Hedge funds use algorithms ranking stocks by price strength over 3–12 months.
Proven academically as a profitable factor.
6. Risk Management in Momentum Trading
Momentum trading is powerful but dangerous if risk isn’t managed.
6.1. Stop-Loss Discipline
Always use tight stop-loss orders since reversals can be violent.
6.2. Position Sizing
Never risk more than 1–2% of capital per trade.
Momentum trades often need high frequency, so preservation is key.
6.3. Avoid Overtrading
Momentum traders face temptation to chase every move.
Better to wait for high conviction setups.
6.4. Managing Gaps and News Risk
Overnight gaps can kill momentum trades.
Intraday traders often close positions before the market shuts.
7. Advantages of Momentum Trading
High Profit Potential – Catching a strong momentum wave can deliver outsized returns in a short time.
Works in All Markets – Both bull and bear trends create momentum opportunities.
Simple Concept – “Buy strength, sell weakness” is intuitive.
Backtested Validity – Quant research supports momentum as a long-term factor.
Scalable – Works for intraday traders, swing traders, and large institutions.
8. Disadvantages and Challenges
High Risk of Reversals – Momentum can fade suddenly.
Requires Discipline – Emotional trading ruins performance.
High Transaction Costs – Frequent trading increases costs.
Market Noise – False breakouts and whipsaws are common.
Capital Intensive – Works best in liquid large-cap stocks or indices.
9. Real-World Examples
Example 1: Infosys Post-Earnings
When Infosys delivers better-than-expected results, the stock often gaps up with high volume. Traders who enter early in the session can ride momentum for 2–3 days.
Example 2: Global Tech Stocks (Tesla, Nvidia)
Tech stocks with strong narratives often exhibit momentum rallies. Traders buy dips until signs of exhaustion appear.
Example 3: COVID-19 Market Crash (2020)
Momentum worked in reverse—shorting falling stocks gave massive gains as fear-driven momentum dominated.
10. Momentum in Indian Markets
The Indian stock market is fertile ground for momentum strategies because of high retail participation and sector rotations.
Nifty 50 & Bank Nifty Futures: Highly liquid, ideal for intraday momentum trading.
SME & IPO Momentum: Newly listed stocks often show extreme momentum.
Sector Leaders: Momentum flows to leaders like HDFC Bank (in banking), Reliance (in energy), Infosys (in IT).
Conclusion
Momentum trading is one of the most exciting strategies in modern markets. It thrives on human psychology, liquidity, and herd behavior. While it carries risks of reversals and requires strict discipline, it also offers some of the most rewarding opportunities for active traders.
The key to mastering momentum is not just spotting strong moves but managing risk effectively. Traders who combine technical tools with emotional discipline can ride market waves profitably. Whether you’re trading Nifty futures in India, Tesla in the U.S., or currencies in global forex markets, momentum remains a timeless strategy.
In essence: Momentum trading is about identifying strong trends, joining them at the right time, and exiting before they reverse.
Part 2 Ride The Big MovesHow Options Work in Trading
Imagine a stock is trading at ₹1,000.
You believe it will rise to ₹1,100 in a month. You could:
Buy the stock: You need ₹1,000 per share.
Buy a call option: You pay a small premium (say ₹50) for the right to buy at ₹1,000 later.
If the stock rises to ₹1,100:
Stock profit = ₹100
Call option profit = ₹100 (intrinsic value) - ₹50 (premium) = ₹50 net profit (but with much lower capital).
This leverage makes options attractive but also risky — if the stock doesn’t rise, your premium is lost.
Categories of Options Strategies
Options strategies can be divided into three main categories:
Directional Strategies – Profit from price movements.
Non-Directional (Neutral) Strategies – Profit from sideways markets.
Hedging Strategies – Protect existing positions.
W breakout and retest in Gold
• Price has reclaimed the VWAP after a rebound from the red MA (likely 200 EMA), showing intraday strength.
• The horizontal zone around 3340 is acting as a support retest zone.
• Volume spikes on upward candles indicate buyers stepping in.
Buy Plan (Swing / Non-Scalp):
• Entry: 3341–3343 (current retest zone)
• Stop Loss: 3336 (below 200 EMA & recent swing low)
• Target 1: 3349
• Target 2: 3354–3356
• Target 3: 3362 (if momentum continues and news flow supports gold)
Reasoning: You’d be playing the bounce continuation from VWAP and 200 EMA support, with tight risk in case of breakdown.
XAUUSD – Gold under pressure after US retail sales and UoM dataHello traders, today let’s take a look at the XAUUSD chart following the latest news and clear technical signals.
On the H4 timeframe, price is moving within a descending wedge pattern, with multiple rejections at the trendline resistance (red arrows). The 3,346 – 3,373 USD area is acting as the main resistance, while the nearest support is around 3,310 USD. The current market structure leans bearish, with lower highs forming and buying momentum fading.
From a news perspective, Core Retail Sales m/m came in at 0.3% (below the 0.5% forecast), indicating weaker consumer spending. However, UoM Consumer Sentiment rose to 61.9 and inflation expectations surged to 4.5%, leading the market to believe the Fed will keep interest rates higher for longer — strengthening the USD and putting pressure on gold.
If price continues to be rejected around 3,346 – 3,373 USD, XAUUSD is likely to break below 3,310 USD and move toward the deeper support area near 3,285 USD.
A suggested strategy is to prioritize SELL setups if price retests 3,346 – 3,373 USD with strong rejection signals, place stop-loss above 3,380 USD, and target profits around 3,310 and 3,285 USD.
Do you think gold will break 3,310 USD in this move, or will it make one more pullback before heading lower?
XAUUSD - SELL DAY TRADEGold Sell Now - 3349 SL , All conditions Alines here , lisquidity swept with slow buyng CMP 33440 , Beloww 3337 we can see sell off which will take towards 3311
gold short1. Main Pattern
You’ve drawn a rounded top (purple arc) — this suggests a gradual shift from bullish to bearish momentum.
After the top, price forms a bear flag (blue parallel channel) — typically a bearish continuation pattern that appears after an initial drop.
2. Moving Averages
Yellow line (50 MA) and Pink line (200 MA) are sloping down, showing short- and long-term bearish bias.
Price is trading below the 200 MA, confirming downward momentum.
3. Trendline Resistance
The red descending trendline aligns with the upper edge of your stop-loss zone, meaning any rally into that area faces strong selling pressure.
4. Trade Setup
Stop-loss: Around 3,353.6 — just above the bear flag and trendline resistance.
Entry: Near 3,339 — current price at time of screenshot.
Target: Around 3,294.45 — a prior support zone and the projected measured move from the rounded top & flag breakdown.
This looks like roughly a 1:2 risk-to-reward ratio.
5. Market Implication
If the bear flag breaks down with momentum, price could accelerate toward your target quickly.
Failure of the pattern (break above stop-loss) could reverse sentiment to bullish in the short term.
This is essentially a pattern-confluence short trade:
Rounded Top → Bear Flag → MA Downtrend → Trendline Resistance.
XAUUSD – Short-Term Bearish Momentum Strengthens After US DataOANDA:XAUUSD is under clear short-term selling pressure after yesterday’s stronger-than-expected US data. Both PPI and Core PPI for July rose by 0.9% month-on-month, far above the 0.2% forecast, signaling higher producer inflation. At the same time, Initial Jobless Claims fell to 224K, better than the 225K estimate, showing a resilient labor market.
This combination has strengthened expectations that the Fed will stay cautious on rate cuts, boosting the USD and weighing on gold.
Technical picture:
Price has broken out of its previous uptrend and is now moving entirely inside a descending price channel.
The 3,358 USD zone is acting as dynamic resistance, aligned with the upper boundary of the channel and EMA 34/89.
Current structure favors selling on rallies towards resistance, with a target at 3,320 USD – near the recent swing low and lower channel boundary.
If bearish momentum holds, a further drop towards 3,300 USD remains possible in the short term.
Short-term idea: Sell zone 3,355–3,358 USD, stop above 3,365 USD, take profit around 3,320 USD.
US Gold 1 hrs time frame Us Gold 1hrs time frame wave analysis
It make repetitive pattern which is labelled in different degree and colours
my anticipation is ATH...............................
Thank you
Disclaimer
I am not SEBI registered financial adviser, it is my personal research and posted for only educational purpose. Before taking any trade or investments please take advice from your financial adviser.
MKT Learner
XAUUSD Bullish Trend Continuation: Potential Move to $3,400!The price action shows a higher high ("high") and a higher low ("low"), which are characteristic of an uptrend. An upward trendline has been established, connecting a series of higher lows, which is acting as a dynamic support level. A significant horizontal support zone has also been identified around the $3,260 - $3,280 price range, where the price previously found support.
Recently, the price experienced a pullback and bounced off the upward trendline. The analysis anticipates a continuation of the upward momentum toward a key resistance zone. This resistance zone is located around the $3,400 - $3,420 level. A specific target price of $3,408.833 is highlighted within this zone, suggesting a potential area where the upward movement might pause or reverse.
The chart includes a potential corrective wave pattern labeled with "C"s, indicating a recent three-wave pullback within the larger trend. The current price is shown at $3,353.520, positioned above both the horizontal support and the upward trendline, reinforcing the bullish sentiment.
Price Action Trading1. Introduction
Price Action Trading (PAT) is one of the most natural, clean, and powerful approaches to the financial markets.
It focuses on reading the movement of price itself rather than relying heavily on indicators or automated systems.
In other words — instead of asking, “What is my MACD or RSI saying?”, you ask, “What is the market actually doing right now?”
Price action traders believe that:
Price reflects all available market information.
Price moves in patterns due to human behavior, psychology, and market structure.
You can make trading decisions by analyzing candlesticks, chart patterns, and support/resistance.
2. The Core Philosophy
The philosophy behind price action is simple:
“Price is the ultimate truth of the market.”
Economic reports, earnings, interest rates, news — all these influence price. But you don’t need to predict them directly. Price action trading accepts that all such factors are already factored into the current price movement.
Instead of chasing the “why,” we focus on the “what”:
What is price doing? (trend, consolidation, reversal)
Where is price? (key levels, breakouts, ranges)
How is price moving? (speed, momentum, volatility)
3. Why Choose Price Action Trading?
Advantages:
Clarity: Charts are clean, no clutter from too many indicators.
Universal: Works on all markets — stocks, forex, crypto, commodities.
Timeless: Price patterns remain relevant because human psychology hasn’t changed for centuries.
Adaptability: Can be used for scalping, day trading, swing trading, or even position trading.
Early Entry Signals: Often gives quicker signals than lagging indicators.
Limitations:
Requires patience to master.
Interpretation can be subjective.
Demands strict discipline and emotional control.
4. Understanding Market Structure
Before you can trade with price action, you need to understand market structure.
Market structure is the basic “road map” of price movement.
4.1 Trends
Uptrend: Price forms higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL).
Downtrend: Price forms lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL).
Sideways / Range: Price moves between horizontal support and resistance.
4.2 Market Phases
Accumulation: Market moves sideways after a downtrend — buyers quietly building positions.
Markup: Strong upward movement with higher highs.
Distribution: Sideways after an uptrend — sellers offloading positions.
Markdown: Strong downward move.
5. Tools in Price Action Trading
While price action traders avoid heavy reliance on indicators, they do use certain tools to understand price movement better:
Candlestick Charts – Each candle shows open, high, low, close. Patterns reveal psychology.
Support & Resistance – Zones where price historically reacts.
Trendlines & Channels – Identify slope and direction of market.
Chart Patterns – Triangles, flags, head & shoulders, double tops/bottoms.
Volume (optional) – Confirms strength of moves.
Fibonacci Levels – Identify retracement and extension zones.
6. Candlestick Analysis
Candlestick patterns are the language of price action.
6.1 Single Candlestick Patterns
Pin Bar (Hammer / Shooting Star): Signals rejection of price at a level.
Doji: Market indecision — potential reversal or continuation.
Engulfing Candle: Strong shift in control between buyers and sellers.
6.2 Multi-Candlestick Patterns
Inside Bar: Consolidation before breakout.
Outside Bar: High volatility shift.
Morning/Evening Star: Strong reversal setups.
7. Support & Resistance (S/R)
These are the “battle zones” where buying or selling pressure builds.
Support: Price level where buyers outnumber sellers.
Resistance: Price level where sellers outnumber buyers.
Key Tip: Don’t think of them as thin lines — they’re zones.
8. Price Action Trading Strategies
Here’s where we get to the heart of the game — actionable setups.
8.1 Breakout Trading
Look for price breaking above resistance or below support with strong momentum.
Confirm with retests for higher probability.
8.2 Pullback Trading
Trade in the direction of the trend after a retracement.
Example: In uptrend, wait for price to pull back to support, then buy.
8.3 Pin Bar Reversal
Identify a long-tailed candle rejecting a level.
Trade in the opposite direction of the tail.
8.4 Inside Bar Breakout
Wait for an inside bar to form after strong movement.
Trade in the breakout direction.
8.5 Trendline Bounce
Draw trendlines connecting higher lows (uptrend) or lower highs (downtrend).
Trade bounces off the trendline.
9. Risk Management in Price Action Trading
Even the best setups fail — risk management keeps you in the game.
Stop Loss Placement:
Just beyond recent swing high/low.
Position Sizing:
Risk a fixed % of account (e.g., 1–2%).
Reward-to-Risk Ratio:
Minimum 2:1 for sustainability.
Avoid Overtrading:
Only trade A+ setups.
10. Trading Psychology & Price Action
Price action is as much about mindset as it is about technical skill.
Patience: Wait for the market to come to you.
Discipline: Follow your plan, not your emotions.
Adaptability: Market conditions change — so should you.
Confidence: Comes only from backtesting and experience.
11. Step-by-Step Price Action Trading Plan
Select Market & Timeframe
Example: Nifty futures on 15m chart for intraday.
Identify Market Structure
Uptrend? Downtrend? Range?
Mark Key S/R Levels
From higher timeframes first.
Wait for Setup
Pin bar, inside bar, breakout, pullback.
Confirm Entry
Momentum, volume (optional).
Place Stop Loss
Just beyond invalidation point.
Manage Trade
Partial profits, trailing stop.
Exit
Target hit or reversal signs.
12. Backtesting Price Action Strategies
Before going live:
Backtest at least 50–100 trades.
Note win rate, average R:R ratio, and drawdowns.
Refine entry & exit rules.
Conclusion
Price action trading strips the market down to its most fundamental truth: price movement itself.
By understanding market structure, candlestick patterns, and the psychology behind moves, you can trade with clarity and precision.
It takes time, patience, and discipline — but the payoff is the ability to read the market like a story.
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD – August 15, 2025
1. Momentum
• D1 Timeframe: Momentum is preparing to reverse and the two lines are converging. We need to wait for the daily candle close for confirmation. At this stage, buying pressure is weak, but sudden downward spikes to sweep liquidity are still possible.
• H4 Timeframe: Momentum is rising, suggesting a potential rebound today. If this rebound fails to break above Wave B’s high, another downward move is likely.
• H1 Timeframe: Momentum is turning down, so a short-term drop is possible. If price breaks below 3331 and approaches the lower targets, it will align with H4’s upward momentum, creating the basis for a more stable rally.
2. Wave Structure
• D1 Timeframe: The abcde triangle pattern may have completed. We now have a black 5-wave structure, with Wave 1 formed and price possibly in Wave 2. A break below 3270 would invalidate this 5-wave count.
• H4 Timeframe: The black 12345 5-wave structure appears complete. Price may now be forming a purple ABC correction, with Waves A and B done, and price currently in Wave C. Based on Fibonacci from W12345, Wave C has two potential targets:
o Target 1: 3322 (Fibo 0.618)
o Target 2: 3298 (Fibo 0.782)
• H1 Timeframe: Within Wave C, a black 5-wave structure seems to be developing, and price may now be in Wave 4. Wave 4 has two possible targets: 3343 and 3350, after which price could drop to complete Wave 5.
3. Key resistance zones where Wave 5 may end:
• Target 1: 3322
• Target 2: 3315
• Target 3: 3299
4. Trade Plan
• Scenario 1:
o Buy Zone: 3322 – 3320
o SL: 3312
o TP1: 3332
o TP2: 3357
o TP3: 3381
• Scenario 2:
o Buy Zone: 3300 – 3298
o SL: 3290
o TP1: 3314
o TP2: 3343
o TP3: 3381
Gold Plan 15/08 – Captain VincentBackground
Yesterday, Gold revisited the BUY Scalp – Quick Boarding 🚤 (3332 – 3334) zone and bounced 140 pips.
This is the second consecutive day the zone has shown strong reaction, but today its support strength may weaken.
The main H1 trend is leaning bearish , so the priority is to look for sell setups at major resistance zones.
Zone 1 – Storm Gate 🚪 (Main Sell Zone – SMC Supply)
Entry: 3,355 – 3,357
SL: 3,361
TP: 3,351 → 3,347 → 3,342 → 33xx
Note: SMC Supply zone confluenced with Fibo 0.5 – 0.618. Wait for strong price reaction before entry.
Zone 2 – BUY Scalp – Quick Boarding 🚤
Entry : 3,332 – 3,334
SL: 3,327
TP: 3,336 → 3,339 → 3,342 → 33xx
Note: This zone has reacted twice in a row. Today, only use for quick scalps, avoid holding for long.
Zone 3 – Deep Harbor 🏝️ (Main Buy Zone – SMC Demand)
Entry: 3,290 – 3,292
SL : 3,284
TP: 3,296 → 3,300 → 3,304 → 33xx
Note: Deepest support of the day. Buy only if price drops sharply and clear reversal signals appear.
Today’s Scenarios
If price tests Storm Gate → Look for short-term sells in line with the downtrend.
If price breaks below BUY Scalp → Wait for a retest to sell further, as there’s a high chance of filling the previous Fair Value Gap.
If price reaches Deep Harbor → Attempt a bottom buy, but keep profit expectations short since the overall trend is bearish.
Captain’s Note:
"Today, the golden sea has strong waves and heavy winds. The captain will set sails at Storm Gate to catch the downwind move. Deep Harbor stays open, but will only anchor if the skies are clear. BUY Scalp is like a speedboat – fast, sharp, decisive." 🏴☠️📉
Captain’s Friday Warning ⚠️
"It’s Friday – the wildest day of the week. Trade carefully, manage capital tightly, and protect your treasure chest. The weekend is long; don’t let one impulsive move sink the ship." ⛵💰
3330 Liquidity Zone – A Fresh Bullish Structure is Emerging!The 3330 liquidity zone continues to prove its strength as gold rebounds sharply from this level, forming a clean new bullish structure on the M30 timeframe. Buyers are now pushing price to trade around 334x, and if this momentum holds, the next upside targets lie at the FIB – CP Zones above 335x and 336x.
On the higher timeframe, the corrective wave is still in play, but short-term price action is opening opportunities for both BUY & SELL setups, provided we time our entries with precision.
Market Context & Key News
Today, the market will be watching the Trump–Putin meeting, which could trigger sharp geopolitical-driven moves.
This Friday also brings the usual liquidity sweep, adding to potential volatility.
That’s why MMFLOW recommends observing the trend closely to pick safe entry points and avoid getting caught in false breaks.
Trading Plan
1. SELL Zones
3355 – Prime OBS SELL ZONE, expecting strong reaction.
3362 – Higher resistance, aligned with the descending trendline. Note: Best to take entries here if reached during Asia or early London; late London/NY session tests are prone to false break traps.
2. BUY Zones
Watch 3334 – 3336 for early BUY entries on lower timeframes.
Safe stop-loss: below 3330.
If 3330 breaks → wait patiently for BUY opportunities around 331x.
Action Strategy
Prioritise early BUYs at 3334–3336 with confirmation signals.
SELL at 3355 or 3362 if clear rejection occurs.
Manage risk strictly – SL below 3330 for BUYs and above 3365 for SELLs.
💡 MMFLOW NOTE: This is gold – volatility can erupt at any moment. Control your emotions, wait for precise setups, and you’ll gain the edge.
XAU/USDThis XAU/USD setup is a buy trade, reflecting a bullish outlook on gold prices. The entry price is 3337, the stop-loss is 3331, and the exit price is 3350. The trade targets a 13-point profit while risking 6 points, offering a favorable risk-to-reward ratio of over 1:2.
Buying at 3337 suggests the trader anticipates upward momentum, possibly supported by a weaker US dollar, softer bond yields, or rising safe-haven demand. The target at 3350 is set near a potential resistance level to secure profits before possible selling pressure.
The stop-loss at 3331 is kept tight to control losses if the market reverses. This setup is best executed during strong bullish momentum or after breakout confirmation.
