Gold's historic rally continues!Market News:
In early Asian trading on Monday (September 8), spot gold prices fluctuated within a narrow range, currently trading around $3,597/oz. Influenced by exceptionally weak US non-farm payroll data, spot gold prices surged, reaching $3,600/oz in London, a record high. The market now believes there is approximately a 10% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September. Investors should be wary of the risk of a significant rate cut at this meeting. From a broader perspective, the fundamentals of international gold are exceptionally strong. Non-yielding gold has stood out in an environment of low interest rates and high uncertainty. This rally is not a flash in the pan; it is built on a solid foundation of multiple factors, including a weak US dollar and expectations of a global economic slowdown. Another major pillar of gold's gains is continued central bank buying. In addition to domestic US economic factors, international geopolitical turmoil has also provided strong support for gold. Gold traders are focused on this week's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. If progress is made in combating inflation, this will strengthen the case for a rate cut at the September 16-17 meeting. Market sentiment for rate cuts has reached its limit. A slight rise in the CPI may lead to temporary caution in international gold prices, but the overall bull market remains intact.
Technical Analysis:
Non-farm payroll data fueled gold buying, extending the trend structure and reaching a new all-time high. Spot gold prices hit another all-time high, posting their strongest single-week gain. Weak US non-farm payroll data further heightened expectations of a Fed rate cut, and amidst growing global economic uncertainty, gold's strong rally has gained new momentum. The weekly chart showed a strong bullish trend. After seven consecutive daily gains, the eighth candlestick formed a small bearish retracing line, retracing to the 3516 level. After a correction, the 5-day moving average regained support. Following Friday's positive non-farm payroll data, gold once again broke through its all-time high, reaching the 3600 mark, driven by the convergence of technical and fundamental factors. The daily candlestick structure remains a buy signal! Price is trading within the upper Bollinger Band, with the RSI nearing the 80-day mark. The latest 10/7-day moving averages are moving upward to 3498/35. The daily and weekly trends remain bullish, but the RSI is approaching overbought territory, prompting caution for potential corrections. On the four-hour chart, price is trading within the upper middle Bollinger Band, with the moving averages remaining upward, maintaining its upward trend. The trading strategy for gold at the start of the week continues to be primarily buy-on-low.
Trading Strategy:
Short-term gold buy at 3572-3575, stop loss at 3564, target at 3600-3620;
Short-term gold sell at 3636-3639, stop loss at 3648, target at 3590-3570;
Key Points:
First Support Level: 3572, Second Support Level: 3555, Third Support Level: 3538
First Resistance Level: 3600, Second Resistance Level: 3616, Third Resistance Level: 3636
