Gold 01/09: FVG Retracement – Buy on Dips, Short near 3515SMC Market View – 01 September
Gold is continuing its bullish order flow, with clear BOS and ChoCH signals already confirmed. Price has formed an FVG (Fair Value Gap) near 3463, and is now showing momentum towards the 3515 supply zone.
✅ BUY Setups
Buy Zone 1: 3418 – 3422
Strong demand area with trendline support and liquidity sweep.
Stop Loss: 3410
Targets: 3430 – 3445 – 3455 – 3460+
Buy Scalp Zone: 3352 – 3350
Deeper liquidity grab area, suitable for quick scalps.
Stop Loss: 3344
Targets: 3360 – 3380 – 3400
👉 All buy zones are aligned with the dominant bullish structure. Best approach: wait for retracements to go long.
❌ SELL Setup
Sell Zone: 3515 – 3517
H1 supply area overlapping with resistance.
Stop Loss: 3522
Targets: 3500 – 3485 – 3475 – 3465 – 3450
👉 Short trades here are only meant for quick pullbacks. The bigger bias remains bullish unless a strong bearish ChoCH shows up.
📌 Conclusion
Main bias: Buy on dips at 3415–3422, 3442–3447, and scalp at 3352–3350.
Secondary play: Short at 3515–3520 targeting demand.
Key level: Watch the FVG at 3463 for market reaction.
GOLDCFD trade ideas
Will Gold Return to 3400?Market Context
Price has registered multiple bullish break of structure, confirming short-term bullish momentum.
A supply zone around 3449 – 3451 may trigger liquidity-driven reactions.
The fair value gap between 3360 – 3310 is still open and could pull price down before continuation.
Key Levels
Supply Zone: 3449 – 3451
Buy Zone 1: 3396 – 3400 (Stop Loss: 3390)
Buy Zone 2: 3310 – 3315 (Stop Loss: 3303)
FVG Zone: 3360 – 3310
Trading Scenarios
Primary Buy Setup
Entry: 3396 – 3400
Stop Loss: 3390
Target: 3449 – 3460 liquidity sweep
Secondary Buy Setup
Entry: 3310 – 3315
Stop Loss: 3303
Target: 3396 – 3449
Counter-trend Sell
Entry: 3449 – 3451, provided rejection is visible
Stop Loss: above 3458
Target: 3400 demand
Summary
The overall bias stays bullish with two key demand zones in play: 3400 for a shallow retracement and 3310 for a deeper liquidity sweep. Short positions near supply remain valid only as quick counter-trend trades.
XAUUSD ANALYSIS 01-SEP-2025LTP: 3475.xx
Supports: 3397/3310/3264/3119
Resistance: 3501
As long as the above supports hold, we can see more bullish action towards 3700/900/4000+
Upside targets:
3450-3485 (Min. Target) - DONE.
3534-3555-3591 (Normal Target)
3637
3677-3700-3734 (Ultimate Target )
3819-3834-3910 (Extension 1)
4155 (Extension 2)
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD (01/09/2025)
Momentum
• D1 timeframe: Momentum has been stuck in the overbought zone for the past 4 days, showing strong buying pressure. However, this also creates noise since extended overbought conditions can reverse at any time.
• H4 timeframe: Momentum is about to turn down in the overbought zone. Once an H4 candle closes with confirmation, we can expect a correction lasting around 4–5 H4 candles.
• H1 timeframe: Momentum is heading into the overbought zone. Within 1–2 more H1 candles, a short-term pullback is likely.
________________________________________
Wave Structure
• D1 timeframe:
Price has risen sharply and steeply, with momentum staying overbought for a long time. This suggests that wave 4 has likely completed, and the market is entering a long-term uptrend. The minimum target is 3684 (equal to the length of wave W).
• H4 timeframe:
Price is currently in red wave 3. We expect a correction into red wave 4, which aligns with H4 momentum preparing to turn down.
• H1 timeframe:
o Wave i (green) is labeled as a leading diagonal, even though wave ii (green) did not retrace as deeply as expected.
o Price is now in an extended wave iii (green).
o Within wave iii (green), a 5-wave structure 1-2-3-4-5 (red) is unfolding. Red wave 3 has already completed with its internal 5-wave (black).
o The target for black wave 5 was achieved at the Fibonacci 0.618 projection of black waves 1–3 → confirming that red wave 3 has completed and price is now correcting into red wave 4.
• Red wave 4 outlook:
Likely to take shape as a zigzag, flat, or triangle. Two retracement zones are identified:
1. 3462 – 23.6% retracement of red wave 3.
2. 3447 – 38.2% retracement of red wave 3.
Considering the guideline that wave 4 often returns to the territory of wave 4 of a smaller degree, and that H4 momentum needs more time to move into the oversold zone, we select 3447 as the primary target for a sell setup.
________________________________________
Trade Plan
• Buy Zone: 3448 – 3446
• Stop Loss: 3438
• Take Profit:
o TP1: 3485
o TP2: 3521
Gold Trading Scenario – Start of the WeekGold Trading Scenario – Start of the Week
Hello traders,
A new week begins with gold holding above the 34xx zone, establishing a fresh value area. The current structure has already broken through major resistance levels on the higher timeframe – including trendline and H4 barriers – confirming strong bullish momentum.
The uptrend played out exactly as expected, reaching the target around 3450 (specifically 3454). Now price is seeing a mild pullback. This will only be considered a trend reversal if price breaks below 3404. Otherwise, it is just a secondary correction as per Dow theory.
Wave 5 may be complete, but the ABC structure is still unclear. For that reason, the plan is to continue with long positions in line with the trend, which increases the probability of success.
Buy zone for today: 3408–3412, an area where sellers previously failed at resistance and which was broken through the trendline on Friday.
This is my outlook for Monday, viewed from a medium-term perspective. Take it as reference, and feel free to share your thoughts in the comments.
Gold Trading Strategy for 01st September 2025📊 TVC:GOLD Intraday Trade Setup
✨ Buy Setup
🟢 Buy above the high of the 30-min candle close if price sustains above $3461
🎯 Targets:
$3473 ✅
$3485 ✅
$3497 ✅
✨ Sell Setup
🔴 Sell below the low of the 1-hour candle close if price sustains below $3430
🎯 Targets:
$3418 ✅
$3405 ✅
$3390 ✅
⚠️ Disclaimer:
📌 This analysis is for educational purposes only. Trading in commodities, forex, or stocks involves high risk. Please do your own research (DYOR) and consult with your financial advisor before taking any positions. I am not responsible for your profits or losses.
Gold Analysis and Trading Strategy for Monday✅ Daily Chart: The Bollinger Bands continue to expand, and spot gold is trading near the upper band, showing strong momentum. The MACD is running in a golden cross, and the RSI has rebounded from oversold territory, indicating that gold has clear demand for a bottom rebound.
However, close attention should be paid to the 3450–3455 trendline resistance. If the price fails to break above this level effectively, it could limit further upside potential.
✅ 4-Hour Chart: The Bollinger Bands are opening upward, with gold trading just below the upper band. The MACD golden cross momentum is narrowing, and the RSI has retreated from overbought levels, suggesting that the upward trend is slowing and that short-term correction pressure may emerge.
✅ 1-Hour Chart: Gold is currently trading near the middle Bollinger Band. The MACD has formed a death cross, and the RSI has fallen back from overbought levels, indicating weakening upward momentum and highlighting the risk of a pullback after overbought conditions.
🔴 Resistance Level: 3450–3455
🟢 Support Level: 3415–3420
✅ Trading Strategy Reference:
🔰 Long Strategy: The overall trend remains bullish, so the main approach is to buy on pullbacks. If gold retraces to the 3415–3420 support zone and holds, light long positions may be considered with targets at 3440–3450.
🔰 Short Strategy: If the price tests the 3450–3455 resistance zone multiple times without a valid breakout, and bearish signals such as divergence or a shooting star candlestick appear, light short positions can be considered. Stop-loss above 3460, with downside targets at 3430–3420.
✅ Conclusion:
Gold is currently in a high-level consolidation phase after rebounding, with upward momentum showing signs of weakening. The key for Monday’s trading lies in whether the 3450–3455 resistance zone can be broken. The recommended approach is to buy on pullbacks as the primary strategy, and sell on rebounds as a secondary strategy, while strictly enforcing stop-loss measures to control risk.
Gold Next MoveExecution Plan
1. Entry
Primary Long Setup:
Wait for price to dip into the $3,429–$3,423 demand zone.
Look for bullish rejection candles (wicks, engulfing, or strong bounce).
Enter long above $3,430–$3,433 confirmation.
Aggressive Entry:
If price holds above $3,437, a long can be initiated with tighter risk.
⸻
2. Stop Loss
Conservative: Below $3,423 (around $3,420).
Aggressive: Below $3,404 (major support/invalidation).
⸻
3. Targets
Target 1: $3,445 (near-term bounce).
Target 2: $3,453–$3,455 (recent high/resistance).
Target 3 (extended): $3,470+ if momentum continues.
⸻
4. Alternative Scenario
If price breaks below $3,404, bullish setup is invalid → stay out or switch bias to short.
In that case, downside may extend to $3,380–$3,385.
⸻
In summary:
Buy the dip near $3,429–$3,423 zone with stop below $3,404.
Take profits near $3,453–$3,470.
Only flip bearish if $3,404 is broken with strong momentum.
Gold’s Relentless Rally – A Lesson for Every TraderIn the past week, Gold surged strongly without any meaningful pullback, leaving many traders who were holding sell positions trapped. Without a retracement based on technical analysis, countless accounts went into heavy drawdown – some even facing complete wipeouts.
👉 What happened here?
Markets don’t always follow textbook technicals.
In volatile phases, traders often let losing trades run, ignoring their Stop-Loss.
This “hope mindset” is exactly what destroys capital faster than anything else.
💡 The key lesson for us all:
Risk management is not optional – it’s the foundation of survival in trading. A single trade without an SL may not seem dangerous, but over time, it’s the biggest reason traders lose their hard-earned money.
The market will always be unpredictable. But these are the moments where discipline and patience separate serious traders from those who get punished by the market.
🔑 MMFlow Insight for Indian Traders:
Markets don’t owe us profits. They reward only those who respect risk, stay calm, and stick to their trading rules. Protect your capital first – opportunities will always come.
👉 Stay disciplined. Respect your stop. Trade smart, trade safe.
Gold next movePresent bull run in gold that started in October of 2023 had 4 major consolidations with each lasting on average 3 to 4 months. The present 4th consolidation lasted a little over 4 month, which is quite similar to the 2nd one.
Each breakout from a horizontal resistance resulted initially in a limited rally then 3-4 week short-term consolidation (elliptic shape) followed by a stronger rally.
If the same pattern plays out, then I expect
1. Gold to reach approximately $3,600 within 2 weeks.
2. Consolidate for 3 - 4 weeks within elliptic shape.
3. Final run, in present cycle, to my to $3,900 - 4,000 price target within 3 - 4 weeks.
All in all, gold should be able to reach price target within 8 to 10 weeks, which targets late October to early November 2025.
Part 4 Learn Institutional TradingBasics of Options (Calls & Puts)
There are two main types of options:
Call Option: Gives the holder the right to buy the underlying asset at a fixed price (called the strike price) before or on the expiry date.
Example: You buy a Reliance call option with a strike price of ₹2500. If Reliance rises to ₹2700, you can buy at ₹2500 and gain from the difference.
Put Option: Gives the holder the right to sell the underlying asset at the strike price before expiry.
Example: You buy a Nifty put option with a strike price of 22,000. If Nifty falls to 21,500, your put gains in value since you can sell higher (22,000) while the market trades lower.
In simple terms:
Calls = Right to Buy
Puts = Right to Sell
How Options Work (Premiums, Strike Price, Expiry, Moneyness)
Every option has certain key components:
Premium: The price you pay to buy the option. This is determined by demand, supply, volatility, and time to expiry.
Strike Price: The fixed price at which the option holder can buy/sell the asset.
Expiry Date: Options are valid only for a certain period. In India, index options have weekly and monthly expiries, while stock options usually expire monthly.
Moneyness: This defines whether an option has intrinsic value.
In the Money (ITM): Already profitable if exercised.
At the Money (ATM): Strike price equals the current market price.
Out of the Money (OTM): Not profitable if exercised immediately.
Gold (XAUUSD) Testing Support Before Potential Move HigherAnalysis:
The chart for Gold Spot (XAUUSD) on the 1-hour timeframe shows a strong uptrend within a rising channel, supported by higher lows.
Support Level: Price is currently testing a key support around 3,404–3,405. This level also aligns with the trendline, making it an important zone to hold.
Resistance Zone: The next major resistance lies between 3,430–3,445, where selling pressure could emerge.
Trend Outlook: As long as the support level holds, the bullish momentum remains intact, with potential for price to continue higher toward the resistance zone.
Risk Factor: A breakdown below the support and trendline could weaken the bullish structure and may trigger a pullback toward 3,390.
📈 Bias: Bullish above support, targeting resistance at 3,430–3,445.
📉 Invalidation: Bearish pressure may come into play if price closes below 3,390.
XAU/USD 4H – Strong Breakout from ConsolidationGold has broken out above its descending resistance line and is now trading at $3,447, reaching fresh highs. The breakout also cleared the key resistance at $3,409, turning it into immediate support.
📈 Price is well above the 200 EMA ($3,357), confirming strong bullish momentum.
📊 Indicators:
RSI (14): At 81, showing overbought conditions — momentum is strong, but a short-term pullback cannot be ruled out.
ADX (14): At 34, indicating a strengthening trend.
🔺 Bullish Scenario: As long as Gold holds above $3,409, continuation towards $3,460 and beyond remains likely.
🔻 Bearish Scenario: A rejection at current highs could trigger a retest of $3,409 or even the EMA zone near $3,357.
⚡ Momentum favors the bulls, but caution is warranted with RSI in overbought territory.
GOLD 29/08: Monthly Candle Closing. DON’T BUY FOMOGold is sitting at a crucial level. As the monthly candle closes, traders must avoid emotional entries. With Smart Money Concepts (SMC) and Elliott Wave Theory, here are the clear trading zones to watch.
🔎 Market Structure (SMC + Elliott)
Elliott Wave: Waves III – IV – V completed. Wave V hit the D1 trendline, showing signs of exhaustion.
SMC Insights:
Multiple BMS (Break of Market Structure) → institutional liquidity play.
EQH (Equal Highs) & EQL (Equal Lows) → liquidity pools ready to be taken.
Demand Zones:
3398 – 3396 (EQH + BMS support)
3372 – 3370 (EQL / deep liquidity sweep)
Resistance: D1 trendline remains the key dynamic cap.
📌 Trading Plan
Scenario 1 – Short-term Sell (Counter-trend):
Entry: 3319 – 3321
SL: 3327
Target: 3398 – 3396
Scenario 2 – Buy at Demand Zone 1 (Main Setup):
Entry: 3398 – 3396
SL: 3390
Target: 3410 – 3415
Scenario 3 – Buy at Demand Zone 2 (Deeper Sweep):
Entry: 3372 – 3370
SL: 3365
Target: 3400 – 3410
✅ Best Risk–Reward setup with liquidity sweep + Elliott retracement.
✅ Conclusion
Bias: Still bullish in the bigger picture.
Risk: Expect liquidity sweeps before continuation.
Advice: Don’t chase price. Wait for demand zone confirmations.
Focus: Safer buys from 3398–3396 or 3372–3370 instead of impulsive FOMO buys near highs.
Gold Awaits Fed Signals: Will 3,350 USD Determine the Next Move?Hi everyone, the gold market is currently at a very sensitive stage. Gold is trading around 3,345 USD, approaching the Fair Value Gap (FVG) between 3,340 – 3,350 USD, and it’s showing signs of consolidation within a narrow range. This phase is highly anticipatory of important news from the Fed and senior officials. So, where will gold head before and after these statements? Let’s break it down.
Gold is currently facing strong resistance at 3,350 USD, a key level that could confirm the next direction. The chart shows that the FVG between 3,340 – 3,350 USD is a region where gold might test again. If it breaks above this level, the chances of continuing the uptrend are very high. On the other hand, if it fails to break 3,350 USD, gold could pull back to test the 3,320 USD support level.
The current trading volume indicates that the bulls are gaining control. However, with significant news soon to be released from the Fed, statements from Jerome Powell and other FOMC members could be decisive factors, especially if there are further signals about potential rate cuts from the Fed. This would weaken the USD and fuel further upside for gold.
Gold Trend Prediction:
If gold breaks 3,350 USD, I expect it to continue rising, with the next target around 3,370 USD. However, if it fails to break this resistance level, gold might adjust back towards 3,320 USD or lower.
Let’s continue to monitor the market and prepare for upcoming trading opportunities!
XAU/USD – Gold Targets 3,440 USDHello traders, gold has successfully broken through the key resistance at 3,400 USD and is now approaching the 3,420 USD zone. A decisive move above this level could open the way toward 3,440 USD. On the downside, the 3,375–3,380 USD support range remains effective, helping the bullish structure to hold.
From the macro side, US Q2 GDP grew by 3.3%, beating forecasts and confirming a solid economic recovery. Yet, this also fuels inflation concerns, reinforcing gold’s safe-haven appeal. Additionally, the upcoming PCE data for August is expected to rise, limiting the chances of early Fed rate cuts, which continues to support gold prices.
What’s your view on this setup? Share your thoughts below.
Gold Trading Strategy | August 29-30✅ On the daily chart, gold closed with a strong bullish candle, breaking out to the 3448 level and testing the previous high resistance zone at 3450–3470. The price is firmly above the upper Bollinger Band, indicating strong bullish momentum, but there are short-term overbought signals. The MACD lines have formed a golden cross with expanding histogram bars, confirming the bullish trend. However, the KDJ is overextended (K > 90), suggesting the risk of a short-term pullback.
Overall, the daily chart remains bullish, but with price approaching key resistance, a correction could occur at any time.
✅ On the 4-hour chart, the price has surged from 3311 and climbed all the way up to 3448. It is now trading outside the upper Bollinger Band, showing clear signs of overheating in the short term. While MACD momentum remains strong, there are early signs of topping out. A technical pullback is likely, with key support to watch at 3430–3415.
🔴 Resistance: 3450–3470
🟢 Support: 3430–3415
✅ Trading Strategy Reference:
🔰 Aggressive Strategy: If the price breaks above 3470 and holds, further upside could extend toward 3500 and beyond.
🔰 Conservative Strategy: If the price pulls back to 3430–3415 and holds, consider entering long positions with targets at 3460–3470. If 3415 fails, shift to a high-level short strategy.
🔥Trading Reminder: Trading strategies are time-sensitive, and market conditions can change rapidly. Please adjust your trading plan based on real-time market conditions🤝
August 29 Gold AnalysisAugust 29 Gold Analysis
Market Dynamics and Core Drivers
Recent volatility in the gold market has primarily revolved around three core factors: the debate over policy independence, uncertainty about tariff policies, and shifting interest rate expectations.
The continued development of US President Trump's dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Tim Cook, seen as a direct challenge to the Fed's independence, has heightened market concerns about political interference in monetary policy. This unprecedented action marks a further escalation in Trump's attacks on the Fed's independence over its refusal to cut interest rates.
Regarding tariff policy, trade frictions between the US and some economies persist. A US-Indonesia agreement is unlikely to be reached in the near term, and tariffs on some goods risk increasing from 25% to 50%. This combination of "selective exemptions and potential doubling" creates greater uncertainty about the tariff path, increasing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset.
Regarding interest rate expectations, futures market pricing indicates an over 87% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed's September meeting. A low interest rate environment reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing gold while also putting pressure on the US dollar, creating a double positive for gold.
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, gold is currently in a volatile, but relatively strong, pattern.
On the daily chart, gold has been fluctuating between $3,120 and $3,450 for approximately five months since reaching a record high in April 2025. It may be at the end of a converging triangle, awaiting a breakout. The short-term moving averages are bullish, with key support at $3,395 (near the 5-day moving average) and $3,365 (near the 10-day moving average).
Key resistance lies in the $3,423-3,425 area (recent highs and rising trendline resistance). A breakout could open the door to $3,439 and $3,452. More significant resistance lies between $3,440 and $3,450, as well as the psychological level of $3,500.
On the 4-hour chart, connecting recent lows and highs reveals a rising wedge pattern. This pattern often serves as a consolidation structure, and the direction of its breakout should be monitored. Short-term top-to-bottom support lies between $3410 and $3405, followed by $3400 and $3395.
Technical indicators show that price is holding above the key 100-day exponential moving average ($3279.45). The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) remains firmly above its midline, near 60.50, confirming continued bullish momentum.
Trading Strategy
Regarding long positions, aggressive investors may consider a light long position if gold prices find support in the $3405-3415 area, targeting $3430-3440 with a stop-loss below $3390. Conservative investors may consider entering a long position after gold prices retrace and stabilize at $3390-3395, targeting $3410-3420 with a stop-loss below $3380.
Regarding short-term strategies, a light position can be used to short gold when it first hits the strong resistance zone of $3435-3445 and shows clear signs of pressure, with a target of $3410-3420 and a stop-loss above $3455. A follow-up strategy for a breakout can be used to short gold with a light position after it effectively breaks below the $3390 support level, with a target of $3370-3380 and a stop-loss above $3410.
Market volatility increased today, so it is recommended to keep positions below 50% of the typical level and reserve sufficient funds to mitigate potential adverse fluctuations or to identify better opportunities.
The US PCE data met expectations, indirectly proving bullish for gold. Wait for the release of the Consumer Confidence Index data before looking for an entry point.
Trade with caution and manage risk! Wish you good luck!
XAU/USD – Short-Term Structure & Key ZonesXAU/USD – Short-Term Structure & Key Zones
✨ Technical Outlook
✅ Breakout Confirmed: Price broke out of the downward channel and retested 3370 as new support.
📈 Momentum: Higher lows forming → buyers in control.
🎯 Upside target: 3425–3450 (major resistance zone).
⚠️ Risk: Failure at 3450 may trigger retracement back toward 3370 / 3320.
🌍 Fundamental Drivers
💵 USD Weakness: Market pricing in softer Fed stance → supports Gold.
🏦 Yields Stable: Lower real yields = bullish for non-yielding assets like Gold.
📉 Global Risk Factors: Central bank accumulation & geopolitical uncertainty continue to add safe-haven demand.
📌 Trading Plan (Pro View)
As long as price holds above 3370, bias remains bullish.
Watch for rejection signals near 3450 → potential short setup.
Captain Vincent | Gold holds 3400, breakout or pullback next?” FED turns dovish, Gold challenges a new Storm Breaker
1. News Wave 🌍
FED – Waller: “Tariffs are a kind of tax and do not increase inflation. I’m back with the ‘transitory team’ on inflation.”
👉 A clear dovish hint supporting a 25bps rate cut in September, with potential for 1–2 more cuts in the next 3–6 months.
US Senate: Hearing scheduled on Sept 4th for FED nominee S. Miran → Political–monetary spotlight.
Tonight: Market awaits PCE data, FED’s preferred inflation measure.
➡️ Summary: FED leaning dovish = mid-term bullish for Gold.
But short-term, Gold faces profit-taking pressure near resistance.
2. Technical Outlook ⚙️
On H1, Gold has repeatedly formed bullish BOS and crossed above 3,400.
Golden Harbor 🏝️ (Buy Zone 3375 – 3373): Large volume accumulation, aligned with FVG → Attractive entry if price pulls back.
Storm Breaker 🌊 (Sell Zone 3432 – 343x): At old ATH zone, high probability of supply pressure if tested.
Key Levels:
3,375 → Critical support “anchor”.
3,438 → Resistance target if bullish momentum continues.
3. Captain Vincent’s Map – Trade Scenarios 🪙
🔺 Golden Harbor 🏝️ (BUY Zone – Priority)
Entry: 3375 – 3373
SL: 3365
TP: 3378 → 3381 → 3384 → 3387 → 33xx
🔻 Storm Breaker 🌊 (SELL Zone – Old ATH Reaction)
Entry: 3432 – 343x
SL: 3442
TP: 3428 → 3425 → 3423 → 3420 → 33xx
4. Captain’s Note ⚓
"The Gold ship has sailed past 3400, but Storm Breaker 🌊 at 343x remains a tough challenge. If corrective waves appear, patiently wait at Golden Harbor 🏝️ to board for a more bullish September journey."
XAUUSD SD + OTE Long Trade (Smart Money Logic)This is my recent LONG trade on OANDA:XAUUSD on the 15 min chart.
When everyone was waiting to SHORT , I was waiting patiently in my LONG position.
Entry :
$3378 - Order Block + FVG + 0.5 Optimal Trade Entry level
Exit :
1st Target - $3400 (Standard Deviation Target 1 + 3400 psychological level)
2nd Target - $3418 (Standard Deviation Target 2)
NOTE: Smart Money DOES NOT HUNT stoplosses , they trigger their positions slightly below where they find maximum liquidity, because their positions are WAY TOO HUGE and need all the anti-orders (buy/sell stops) basically buy side or sell side liquidity so that they can fill in their orders. They are literally there to HELP YOU push the price up or down, you just need to place your stoplosses right! not too tight not too far off which may cause market structure shifts. SLs need to be absolutely perfect
Trade Explanation :
OANDA:XAUUSD should have used the 1D Bearish Order Block and we should have seen a fall or at least a decent enough retracement, but only 1 thing saved us, that is 15 min Bullish INDUCMENT and 1H BIAS . I never entered in a short trade!
I hope everyone saw these liquidity pools at the bottom and waited for them to get swept, but yeah, not always will liquidity be hunted right? Pools are areas with the most number of orders + stops. So aren't they supposed to be a good thing? :)
So, yes, DAILY bias is good, but again, LTF bias is also very necessary. Markets won't always respect the DAILY bias. Else, they would always be stuck in a sideways momentum right?
Think about it!
Also, do let me know in the comments what you feel about this trade and also share your analysis!
XAU/USD – End-of-Month Trading Strategy | MMFlow TradingGold is entering a short-term correction phase as we close the month. Looking at historical data, in the last 4 months, Gold has shown deep liquidity sweeps at month-end before continuing its upward rally. Today, we could see a similar setup.
📊 Market Context:
Month-end candles often create long wicks (343x → 335x).
If price breaks below 3395, we could see deeper liquidity grabs.
US Session has PCE Data release – expected to match the previous reading. This may trigger short-term volatility, providing opportunities for intraday traders.
📌 Key Levels
🔺 Resistance (Sell Zone)
3434 – 3436 → Short-term selling opportunity.
3424 – 3435 → A breakout here opens the path to new highs.
🔻 Support (Buy Zone)
3395 – 3390 → Important intraday liquidity zone.
3376 – 3374 (VPOC Area) → Strong demand zone, likely to attract buyers.
3363 – 3355 (Deep Liquidity Zone) → Extreme scenario, less likely without major news.
📌 Trade Plan
✅ Long Setup (Buy Zone)
Entry: 3376 – 3374
Stop Loss: 3369
Targets: 3380 – 3385 – 3390 – 3400 – 3410 – 3420 – ???
🎯 This aligns with the VPOC zone, highly probable for bullish reaction.
✅ Short Setup (Sell Zone)
Entry: 3434 – 3436
Stop Loss: 3440
Targets: 3430 – 3425 – 3420 – 3410 – 3400
⚠️ Short trades are better executed in Asian & European sessions to catch the correction move before US volatility.
📍 Summary:
Watch 3395 – 3375 closely → if this holds, September could bring strong bullish momentum.
Month-end dips are often the best opportunities to position for the next ATH rally.
Patience + precise levels = high probability setups.
🔥 Stay tuned with MMFlow Trading for precise institutional-style analysis & real-time market insights.