XAUUSD – Bearish scenario activatedXAUUSD – Bearish scenario activated: watch for sell retest at 4,303–4,305, deep buy at 4,208–4,210 🟡
Gold just hit a historic peak at 4,381 but the subsequent sharp drop opens up the risk of a short-term correction. On H1, the price is blocked by the descending trendline and the sell zone cluster at 4,30x; below are liquidity zones and the bottom trendline waiting to be retested.
Quick chart insights
The structure shifts to a descending triangle pullback after breaking the upward momentum.
Sell zone 4,303–4,305 coincides with the descending trendline + thick volume (VP).
Below 4,26x is Liquidity Buy; deeper is the 4,208–4,210 mark near FE 4.236 and the trendline base — the final “shakeout” zone before recovery.
Trading plan (if–then)
Sell retest (priority in weak rebound)
Entry: 4,305–4,303
SL: 4,310
TP: 4,287 → 4,260 → 4,242 → 4,220
Condition: rebound to 4,30x and appearance of rejection/engulfing candle on H1 below the descending trendline.
Deep buy (liquidity sweep + bounce back)
Entry: 4,210–4,208
SL: 4,204
TP: 4,225 → 4,242 → 4,270 → 4,298
Condition: deep shakeout to 4,21x, appearance of pin bar/absorbing volume at the bottom trendline.
Invalidation
Sell scenario invalidated if H1 closes above 4,310.
Buy scenario invalidated if H1 closes below 4,204 (risk of deeper trendline range).
Key levels to watch (easy to view on mobile)
Resistance: 4,303–4,305 • 4,320–4,325 (descending trendline)
Support: 4,260–4,255 • 4,242 • 4,210–4,208 • 4,200
Expected move: rebound to 4,30x → sell down to 4,26x/4,24x; sweep 4,21x → bounce back to 4,27x–4,29x.
Quick context (macro)
Expectations of Fed rate cuts + geopolitical risks keep the major trend upward, but post-ATH often sees short-term sell-offs to rebalance positions.
Monitor USD/yield fluctuations: a strong USD will support the sell retest scenario; a cooling USD creates opportunities for rebounds from buy zones.
