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Geopolitical Risks and Their Impact on Global MarketsIntroduction Geopolitical risks encompass a broad spectrum of political, economic, and military events that can disrupt the global economic landscape. These risks, ranging from armed conflicts and trade wars to policy shifts and regime changes, have profound implications for financial markets, investment strategies, and economic stability. Understanding the nature of these risks and their potential impacts is crucial for investors, policymakers, and businesses operating in an increasingly interconnected world. 1. Nature and Sources of Geopolitical Risks Geopolitical risks arise from various sources, each with unique characteristics and potential consequences: Armed Conflicts and Wars: Military engagements, such as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, can lead to significant disruptions in global supply chains, especially in energy and commodities markets. For instance, attacks on critical infrastructure can cause immediate price spikes and long-term supply shortages. Trade Wars and Sanctions: Economic measures like tariffs, export controls, and sanctions can alter trade flows and affect the profitability of multinational corporations. The U.S.-China trade tensions are a prime example, influencing global supply chains and market sentiments. Political Instability and Regime Changes: Shifts in political power, especially in key economies, can lead to policy uncertainties that affect investor confidence and market stability. Changes in leadership can result in abrupt policy shifts, impacting sectors such as energy, finance, and technology. Cybersecurity Threats: Increasing reliance on digital infrastructure makes economies vulnerable to cyberattacks, which can disrupt financial systems, trade, and national security. Environmental and Resource Conflicts: Competition for scarce resources, exacerbated by climate change, can lead to geopolitical tensions, particularly in regions dependent on natural resources. 2. Mechanisms of Market Impact Geopolitical events influence markets through several channels: Market Volatility: Uncertainty surrounding geopolitical events can lead to increased volatility in stock and bond markets. Investors often react swiftly to news, leading to sharp price movements. Commodity Price Fluctuations: Conflicts in resource-rich regions can disrupt supply chains, leading to price increases in commodities like oil, gas, and metals. For example, tensions in the Middle East often result in spikes in oil prices due to concerns over supply disruptions. Currency Instability: Geopolitical risks can affect investor confidence in a country's currency, leading to depreciation or volatility. Countries directly involved in conflicts may see their currencies weaken due to capital outflows. Capital Flows and Investment Patterns: Heightened risks can lead to shifts in investment strategies, with investors seeking safe-haven assets like gold, government bonds, or stable currencies. Emerging markets may experience capital outflows as investors seek safer investments. Supply Chain Disruptions: Conflicts and trade restrictions can interrupt the flow of goods and services, leading to shortages and increased costs for businesses and consumers. 3. Case Studies of Geopolitical Events and Market Reactions Russia-Ukraine Conflict: The invasion of Ukraine by Russia in 2022 led to significant disruptions in global energy markets. Sanctions imposed on Russia resulted in soaring oil and gas prices, affecting global inflation rates and energy security. U.S.-China Trade War: The imposition of tariffs between the U.S. and China in 2018-2019 disrupted global supply chains, affecting industries from electronics to agriculture. Markets experienced heightened volatility as investors adjusted to the changing trade landscape. Brexit: The United Kingdom's decision to leave the European Union introduced uncertainties regarding trade agreements, regulatory standards, and economic relations, leading to fluctuations in the British pound and stock market volatility. Middle East Tensions: Periodic conflicts and tensions in the Middle East, particularly involving Iran, have led to spikes in oil prices due to concerns over supply disruptions, impacting global markets. 4. Quantifying Geopolitical Risk Measuring geopolitical risk is challenging due to its multifaceted nature. However, several indices and models have been developed to assess and quantify these risks: Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR): Developed by Caldara and Iacoviello (2022), this index quantifies geopolitical tensions based on news coverage and policy uncertainty. It provides a historical perspective on the frequency and intensity of geopolitical events. BlackRock Geopolitical Risk Indicator (BGRI): This indicator tracks market attention to geopolitical risks by analyzing brokerage reports and financial news stories. It helps investors gauge the level of concern in the market regarding specific geopolitical events. Market-Driven Scenarios (MDS): Employed by institutions like BlackRock, MDS frameworks estimate the potential impact of geopolitical events on global assets by analyzing historical parallels and expert insights. 5. Investor Strategies in the Face of Geopolitical Risks Investors can adopt several strategies to mitigate the impact of geopolitical risks: Diversification: Spreading investments across various asset classes, sectors, and geographies can reduce exposure to specific geopolitical events. Hedging: Utilizing financial instruments like options, futures, and currency swaps can help protect portfolios from adverse market movements. Focus on Fundamentals: Investing in companies with strong fundamentals, such as robust balance sheets and resilient business models, can provide stability during turbulent times. Monitoring Geopolitical Developments: Staying informed about global events and understanding their potential implications can help investors make timely and informed decisions. Scenario Planning: Developing and regularly updating risk scenarios can prepare investors for potential geopolitical shocks and guide strategic responses. 6. Implications for Policymakers and Businesses Policymakers and businesses must recognize the significance of geopolitical risks and take proactive measures: Policy Formulation: Governments should develop policies that enhance economic resilience, promote diversification, and reduce dependence on volatile regions. Crisis Management Plans: Establishing frameworks to respond to geopolitical crises can help mitigate their impact on national security and economic stability. Public-Private Collaboration: Cooperation between governments and businesses can lead to more effective risk management strategies and resource allocation during crises. Investment in Technology and Infrastructure: Strengthening digital infrastructure and cybersecurity can reduce vulnerabilities to cyber threats and enhance economic resilience. Conclusion Geopolitical risks are an inherent aspect of the global economic landscape, with the potential to influence markets, investment strategies, and economic policies. While these risks cannot be entirely eliminated, understanding their sources, mechanisms, and potential impacts allows investors, businesses, and policymakers to develop strategies to mitigate their effects. By adopting proactive risk management approaches and staying informed about global developments, stakeholders can navigate the complexities of geopolitical risks and maintain stability in an interconnected world.
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by TechnicalExpress
4
Futures & Hedging Techniques1. Understanding Futures Contracts 1.1 Definition and Basics A futures contract is a standardized agreement between two parties to buy or sell an underlying asset at a predetermined price on a specific future date. Futures are traded on regulated exchanges and cover a wide range of assets, including commodities (oil, gold, wheat), financial instruments (bonds, stock indices), and currencies. Key characteristics: Standardization: Contract size, expiration date, and quality of the underlying asset are predefined. Leverage: Futures allow traders to control a large position with a relatively small margin, magnifying both gains and losses. Obligation: Unlike options, both parties are obligated to fulfill the contract unless it is closed before expiration. 1.2 Types of Futures Contracts Futures contracts can be broadly classified into: Commodity Futures: Contracts for physical goods like crude oil, natural gas, metals, or agricultural products. Financial Futures: Contracts based on financial instruments such as stock indices (e.g., S&P 500), government bonds, or currencies. Currency Futures: Agreements to exchange a specific amount of one currency for another at a future date. Interest Rate Futures: Contracts based on the future level of interest rates, often used to hedge bond positions. 2. The Concept of Hedging 2.1 What is Hedging? Hedging is a risk management strategy used to offset potential losses in an investment by taking an opposite position in a related asset. It acts as a financial "insurance policy," protecting against price volatility. Example: A wheat farmer expects to harvest 10,000 bushels in three months. To protect against a price drop, he sells wheat futures. If prices fall, gains from the futures contract offset losses in the cash market. 2.2 Hedging vs. Speculation Hedgers: Aim to reduce risk and protect profit margins. Speculators: Take on risk to profit from price movements. Hedgers use futures primarily, while speculators are attracted to leverage and profit potential. 3. Hedging Techniques 3.1 Long Hedge A long hedge is used when an investor or business anticipates purchasing an asset in the future and wants to protect against price increases. It involves buying futures contracts. Example: An airline company expects to buy jet fuel in three months. To hedge against rising fuel prices, it buys fuel futures. If fuel prices increase, gains from the futures offset higher cash market costs. 3.2 Short Hedge A short hedge is applied when the investor or business owns the asset and wants protection against price declines. It involves selling futures contracts. Example: A farmer expecting to sell corn in six months may sell corn futures. If market prices drop, gains from futures contracts compensate for lower cash sales prices. 3.3 Cross Hedging Cross hedging occurs when the exact underlying asset is not available for hedging, so a related asset's futures contract is used. This method carries basis risk, as the hedge may not perfectly offset price changes. Example: A steel manufacturer might use iron ore futures to hedge against steel price fluctuations when no steel futures are available. 3.4 Rolling Hedges Futures contracts have expiration dates. To maintain continuous hedging, traders roll over contracts from a near-month to a later-month contract, locking in protection over a longer horizon. 4. Advanced Hedging Strategies 4.1 Delta Hedging Primarily used in options trading, delta hedging involves adjusting positions to remain neutral against price movements of the underlying asset. Though complex, it can minimize directional risk. 4.2 Ratio Hedging This involves using a proportionate number of futures contracts to hedge a position. Over-hedging or under-hedging can be applied based on risk appetite. 4.3 Hedging with Options on Futures Options provide asymmetric protection: Buying put options hedges against price declines. Buying call options hedges against price increases. This approach limits losses while retaining upside potential. 5. Real-World Applications of Futures and Hedging 5.1 Commodities Agriculture: Farmers hedge crops to lock in prices and stabilize income. Energy: Airlines and utilities hedge oil, gas, and electricity prices to manage operational costs. Metals: Industrial manufacturers hedge metals like copper and aluminum to control production expenses. 5.2 Financial Markets Equities: Portfolio managers hedge against market downturns using index futures. Interest Rates: Banks hedge bond portfolios against interest rate fluctuations using Treasury futures. Currency Exposure: Multinational companies hedge foreign currency transactions to mitigate exchange rate risk. 5.3 Corporate Finance Corporations employ hedging to: Protect profit margins. Secure predictable cash flows. Reduce volatility in earnings reports. 6. Advantages and Limitations 6.1 Advantages Risk Management: Reduces exposure to adverse price movements. Liquidity: Futures markets are highly liquid. Price Discovery: Transparent pricing aids decision-making. Standardization: Contracts are uniform and regulated. 6.2 Limitations Basis Risk: Imperfect hedging can leave residual risk. Margin Calls: Leverage can lead to unexpected losses. Market Volatility: Extreme events may cause margin strain. Complexity: Advanced hedging requires financial expertise. 7. Practical Tips for Effective Hedging Identify Exposures: Determine what risks need hedging—commodity prices, interest rates, currencies. Choose the Right Instrument: Use futures, options, or combinations to optimize coverage. Calculate Hedge Ratios: Apply statistical methods for precision. Monitor Positions: Markets are dynamic; regular evaluation is critical. Understand Costs: Consider transaction costs, margin requirements, and potential losses. 8. Case Studies Case Study 1: Airline Fuel Hedge A major airline facing volatile fuel prices purchased crude oil futures. When prices surged 12% in three months, the gains from futures offset the higher fuel costs, stabilizing operational expenses. Case Study 2: Wheat Farmer A farmer expecting to sell wheat in 90 days sold futures contracts. Prices fell by 8%, but the futures gain neutralized losses, ensuring predictable revenue. Case Study 3: Multinational Corporation A tech firm receiving payments in euros hedged using currency futures. Adverse EUR/USD fluctuations could have reduced earnings, but gains from futures mitigated the impact. 9. Emerging Trends in Futures and Hedging Algorithmic Hedging: AI and quantitative models optimize hedge ratios in real-time. ESG Hedging: Companies hedge exposure to carbon credits or renewable energy costs. Cryptocurrency Futures: Digital assets now offer hedging tools for crypto portfolios. Globalization: Increasing cross-border trade creates diverse hedging needs in multiple currencies and commodities. 10. Conclusion Futures and hedging techniques are indispensable tools in modern finance. They allow market participants to manage risk, protect profits, and plan for uncertainties. While futures provide standardized, leveraged instruments for price speculation and risk management, hedging techniques enable businesses and investors to achieve stability amid market volatility. Mastering these concepts requires a combination of theoretical knowledge, practical experience, and an understanding of market behavior. With careful planning, risk assessment, and strategy execution, futures and hedging can transform uncertainty into a manageable, predictable component of financial decision-making.
TVC:GOLDEducation
by TechnicalExpress
XAUUSD – The Decisive Zone and Trading ScenariosTechnical Analysis Gold prices on the H4 chart are in a recovery phase after retesting the support at 3,661–3,662. The latest candle has rebounded strongly to the 3,684 zone, yet the structure still indicates a clear tug-of-war. The upward trendline was breached in the previous decline, and currently, the price is retracing to test this area again. This is a crucial point to determine whether the short-term uptrend will continue. The Fair Value Gap (FVG) formed around the 3,613–3,626 zone, along with the Fibonacci extension, becomes a point of interest for deeper pullbacks. The Volume Profile indicates the main Point of Control (POC) lies lower, around 3,551, a potential target for gold to revisit if selling pressure increases. The RSI (14) is at ~59, leaning towards the buyers but hasn't crossed into the overbought territory → the current momentum is more of a recovery rather than a sustainable uptrend. Trading Scenarios Scenario 1 – Buy following the short-term trend: Entry: wait for a retest at 3,673–3,662 SL: below 3,655 TP1: 3,690–3,700 TP2: 3,708–3,715 (2.0–2.618 Fib extension) Scenario 2 – Short sell after confirmed failure: If the price fails to hold above 3,661 and there is a reversal signal on H4, consider selling. Entry: 3,661–3,650 (after confirmation candle) SL: above 3,673 TP1: 3,626–3,613 (FVG + support) TP2: 3,579 TP3: 3,551 (POC Volume Profile) Key Price Levels to Watch 3,708–3,715: extended resistance zone, Fibonacci confluence, important target for buyers. 3,661–3,662: short-term support, the boundary to determine the next trend. 3,613–3,626: FVG + intermediate support, a zone prone to reactions. 3,551: volume POC, a deeper target if the market breaks all support. I will apply the long-term trading scenario in the new week, give me a follow for motivation to write more!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Steven-GoldTrading
LiamTrading – Long-Term Trend for XAUUSD is Taking ShapeGold continues its robust upward momentum, currently trading around 3,680 – 3,685. After a series of consecutive bullish candles, the price is showing signs of consolidation and slight adjustment, paving the way for crucial scenarios in the upcoming phase. Technical Analysis On the Daily chart, the RSI has surpassed the 70 mark, indicating an overbought condition. This is often an early warning sign for a potential correction. The price structure suggests that the FVG zone of 3,630 – 3,600 will be the first observation point if a short-term correction occurs. A stronger support zone lies at 3,510 – 3,475, coinciding with Fibonacci levels 0.5 – 0.382, and also the previous resistance area that has been broken. This is considered a potential long-term 'Buy zone'. If the correction completes, gold has the potential to return to its upward trend with a further target around 3,800 (Fibonacci extension levels 2.618 – 3.618). Trading Scenarios Short-term: Monitor the reaction at 3,630 – 3,600. If it holds, there might be a short recovery. The price area around 3552-3562 should be watched for reactions. Medium-term: Wait for the price to test the 3,500 – 3,475 zone to find more sustainable buying opportunities. Long-term: The major trend still leans towards an increase, with an expected target towards 3,800. This is my personal view on XAUUSD, and you can consider it to build your own plan. If you find it useful, follow me for the latest updates on gold's upcoming scenarios.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by LiamTradingFX
XAUUSD – Strong Resistance at 3760–3770 Await ConfirmationHello trader, Gold continues to fluctuate within the accumulation zone after the recent recovery. Although the larger trend leans towards an increase, a clear confirmation at key resistance-support levels is needed for a stronger breakout. Strong Resistance: 3760 – 3770, converging with the Fibonacci extension zone. This is a crucial level if the price aims to create a new ATH in the mid-term. Key level Sell: 3685 – 3695, currently a short-term resistance zone. If the price fails to break through, gold may face downward pressure. Important Support: 3564 – 3574: mid-term support. 3534 – 3540: deep support zone, aligning with previous liquidity. MACD H4: Histogram remains weak, momentum is unclear → the market needs further confirmation to clearly define the trend. Trading Scenario Bullish Scenario Condition: Price breaks above 3695 and holds. Entry: Retest 3665 – 3668. Target: 3680-3698-3715-3730 – 3760 – 3770. Extension: If successfully surpassing 3770 → expect a move towards 3800+. Bearish Scenario Condition: Price fails at 3695 and reverses. Entry: Sell at 3685 – 3695 zone upon rejection signal. Target: 3672-3655-3635 – 3600 – 3574. Extension: If breaking 3574, the decline may target 3540, or even deeper. Mid-term Scenario Price may retest 3534 – 3550 to gather liquidity, then rebound following the larger trend. This will be an attractive long-term Buy zone. The gold market is at a crucial stage: buyers need to break 3695 to confirm the uptrend, while sellers still have opportunities at the short-term resistance zone. Deep support levels will continue to serve as a foundation for mid-term Buy strategies. Keep a close watch on 3695 and 3760 – 3770 to determine the next direction. Stay tuned for the latest scenarios as the price structure evolves.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by BrianLionCapital
Gold Hits New Record: Should You Buy or Sell in This Hot Market?Namaste traders, This past week, gold surprised everyone by closing strong. On Friday (19/09), it moved higher again, marking its 5th consecutive weekly gain at $3,683.24/oz, while futures touched $3,718.50/oz. This surge followed the Fed’s rate cut, which many thought would cool the yellow metal. So, is this a genuine rally or just a bull trap? Fundamentals: Rate Cut Pushes Gold Higher Lower interest rates reduce the cost of holding gold. Fed’s dovish signals raised expectations for more easing. In India, physical gold demand is at a 10-month high, while China also shows strong appetite despite higher prices. Technical Outlook Gold broke its downward trendline, signaling bullish continuation. Buyers are in control. This Week’s View: Focus on buying near-term targets at $372x and $373x, but stay alert to macro news. Trading Setups (with strict risk management): Buy Scalp: $3671–$3669 | SL: $3666 | TP: $3674–$3694 Buy Zone: $3657–$3659 | SL: $3647 | TP: $3669–$3709 Sell Scalp: $3713–$3715 | SL: $3719 | TP: $3705–$3785 Sell Zone: $3731–$3733 | SL: $3741 | TP: $3723–$3683 Will gold shine brighter and set another all-time high? Share your view! 👇
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Jeremy_NPC
Part 8 Trading Master Class1. Introduction to Option Trading Financial markets are constantly evolving, offering traders and investors a wide variety of tools to manage risk, speculate on price movements, or generate income. One of the most fascinating and versatile financial instruments is the option. Unlike buying a share of a company directly, which gives you ownership, an option gives you rights, not obligations. This small distinction makes options powerful. They can amplify profits, reduce risks, and allow traders to play multiple angles of the market. Option trading might sound complicated at first, but once you understand the foundation, it’s like learning a new language – everything starts connecting. 2. The Basics: What Are Options? An option is a contract between two parties – a buyer and a seller – that gives the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an underlying asset at a predetermined price within a set time frame. The underlying asset could be a stock, an index, a commodity (like gold or crude oil), or even currencies. The predetermined price is called the strike price. The time frame is defined by the expiry date. In simple words: Options are like a reservation ticket. You pay a small amount now (premium) to lock in the ability to buy/sell later, but you don’t have to use it if you don’t want to. 3. Types of Options: Call and Put There are two main types: Call Option: Gives the buyer the right to buy the underlying asset at the strike price. Example: You buy a call option for Reliance at ₹2500. If Reliance goes to ₹2700, you can still buy it at ₹2500, making profit. Put Option: Gives the buyer the right to sell the underlying asset at the strike price. Example: You buy a put option for Infosys at ₹1500. If Infosys falls to ₹1300, you can still sell it at ₹1500. Think of calls as a bet on prices going up, and puts as a bet on prices going down. 4. Key Terminologies in Options To understand option trading, you must master its unique vocabulary: Strike Price: The pre-agreed price at which you can buy/sell the underlying. Expiry Date: The date on which the option contract expires. Premium: The price you pay to buy the option. In-the-Money (ITM): Option has intrinsic value. (E.g., stock is above strike for calls, below strike for puts). Out-of-the-Money (OTM): Option has no intrinsic value. At-the-Money (ATM): Stock price and strike price are nearly the same. Option Writer: The seller of the option, who takes the opposite side. Lot Size: The minimum quantity you can trade in an option contract.
TVC:GOLDEducation
by SkyTradingZone
XAU/USD – Captain Vincent Weekly Plan🔎 Captain’s Log – Context 📈 Main Trend : Strong uptrend after BoS. 📊 Price moving sideways within the rising channel, staying below Weak High 3674 . 📌 EMA 50 > EMA 200 → bullish trend remains solid. 🎯 Captain’s Map – Trading Scenarios 1️⃣ Golden Harbor (BUY – Main Priority) 🎯 Entry: FVG Dock: 3602 – 3593 FVG Deep: 3567 – 3560 OB Harbor: 3535 – 3540 ⛔ SL: below 3520 ✅ TP1: 3674 (sweep Weak High) ✅ TP2: 3720 – 3740 2️⃣ Quick Boarding (Short-term SELL – Counter-trend) Condition: If price breaks 3674 first → watch for false break. 🎯 Entry: 3670 – 3680 ✅ TP: back to 3602 – 3567 ⚠️ Note : scalp only, don’t hold long. 3️⃣ Storm Breaker Alert (Bearish Scenario) If 3535 breaks → short-term uptrend invalidated. 🎯 Bearish target: 3480 – 3500 Captain’s Note ⚓ “The golden sail still catches the wind after BoS, leading the captain and crew on the bullish tide. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3593 – 3560 – 3535) remains the preferred docking point to load cargo and continue the voyage. Quick Boarding 🚤 at Storm Breaker 🌊 (3670 – 3680) is only a short ride when the ship sweeps liquidity at Weak High 3674 . Should 3535 break, the ship might be dragged toward 3480 – 3500, but as long as it anchors at Golden Harbor, the grand journey still heads north toward 3720+.”
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CaptainVincent
Gold Market Analysis: September 20, 2025Gold (XAU/USD) continues its remarkable bullish run in 2025, driven by persistent geopolitical tensions, central bank buying, a weakening US dollar, and expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts. As of today, the spot price stands at approximately $3,685 per ounce, marking a 1.06% increase from the previous day and a staggering 40.47% year-over-year gain. This follows a 26% rise in the first half of the year and nearly 41% year-to-date, with the metal recently touching an all-time high near $3,707 earlier this month. The market remains in a structural uptrend, though short-term volatility—exacerbated by the recent FOMC meeting—has led to some profit-taking and consolidation. Technical Analysis Gold's chart on the daily and H1 timeframes shows a bullish bias, with the price trading above key moving averages (50-day MA at $3,520 and 200-day MA at $3,200). The recent pullback from $3,707 appears corrective, testing demand zones around $3,638-$3,644 where buyers stepped in aggressively.Key Support Levels:Immediate: $3,644–$3,638 (recent demand zone; strong buying interest here). Long term Support and resistance Support : $3,525–$3,580 Key Resistance Levels: $3,900 - $4,000 Trend Bullish ~~ Disclaimer ~~ This analysis is based on recent technical data and market sentiment from web sources. It is for informational \ educational purposes only and not financial advice. Trading involves high risks, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research or consult a SEBI-registered advisor before trading. # Boost and comment will be highly appreciated.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by renderwithme
GOLD – Breakout / Swept High – Where to BUY?1. Market Overview Gold prices are consolidating around 3655 – 3660 after showing a short-term bearish structure. On the H1 chart, we can see clear supply and demand zones: • Liquidity Buy Zone near 3640 (potential demand area). • Imbalance / Supply Zone around 3670 – 3680. The broader higher-timeframe trend is still bullish, but in the near term the market is retesting liquidity levels. ________________________________________ 2. Key Levels & Zones • Liquidity Buy Zone: 3640 – 3645 → important support. • Sell Scalp Zone / Imbalance: 3670 – 3680 → short-term resistance. • Higher High Target (HH): 3700 – 3710 → strong higher-timeframe resistance. • Long-term Support: 3620 – 3630. ________________________________________ 3. Main Trading Scenarios 🟢 Long Setup (with trend) • Wait for price to revisit the Liquidity Buy Zone (3640 – 3645). • If bullish reversal signals appear (pin bar, engulfing candle, etc.), consider entering a Long position. 🎯 Targets: • Short-term: 3678 (trendline break retest). • Mid-term: 3700 – 3710 (higher high). 🔴 Short Setup (scalp only) • If price pushes into the Sell Scalp Zone (3670 – 3680) and faces strong rejection → take a Short scalp. • 🎯 Target: 3640 – 3645. ⚠ Note: Shorts go against the main bullish trend, so they should be managed quickly and not held for long. ________________________________________ 4. Trade Management Notes • Focus on Long trades near support, as higher timeframe bias is still bullish. • Short positions should only be taken as scalp setups near resistance. • Risk control: limit risk to 1–2% per trade, avoid holding trades against the main trend. ________________________________________ 📌 Conclusion Gold (XAUUSD) is currently testing the descending trendline and resistance zone. • A successful breakout may lead price towards 3700+. • Otherwise, the market is likely to dip back into 3640 before starting the next bullish leg.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Linda_OneShotTrader
5
Gold 1H – Risk of Premium Sweeps Before ReversalOn the 1H timeframe, gold is consolidating after consecutive BOS and ChoCH signals, showing rejection from premium levels. The market is oscillating between the fresh FVG sell zone at 3,673–3,671 and the deep discount support at 3,634–3,636. Liquidity remains positioned above 3,705 and below 3,632, keeping scope for engineered sweeps before a clearer directional move emerges. ________________________________________ 📌 Key Structure & Liquidity Zones (1H): • 🔴 FVG SELL ZONE 3,673 – 3,671 (SL 3,680) Premium intraday pocket for rejection, targeting 3,660 → 3,650 → 3,640. • 🔴 SELL GOLD LIQUIDITY 3,705 – 3,703 (SL 3,712) Major premium liquidity trap, likely to precede continuation lower towards 3,690 → 3,675 → 3,660. • 🟢 BUY GOLD SUPPORT 3,634 – 3,636 (SL 3,627) Discount demand zone, aiming for recovery towards 3,645 → 3,660 → 3,670 if defended. ________________________________________ 📊 Trading Ideas (Scenario-Based): 🔻 Sell Setup – FVG Rejection (3,673–3,671) • Entry: 3,673 – 3,671 • Stop Loss: 3,680 • Targets:  TP1: 3,660  TP2: 3,650  TP3: 3,640 👉 Expect engineered liquidity grab into the FVG before downside extension. 🔻 Sell Setup – Premium Liquidity Sweep (3,705–3,703) • Entry: 3,705 – 3,703 • Stop Loss: 3,712 • Targets:  TP1: 3,690  TP2: 3,675  TP3: 3,660 👉 Smart money may sweep highs near 3,705 before resuming bearish leg. 🔺 Buy Setup – Discount Reversal (3,634–3,636) • Entry: 3,634 – 3,636 • Stop Loss: 3,627 • Targets:  TP1: 3,645  TP2: 3,660  TP3: 3,670 👉 High risk-reward opportunity if gold defends discount demand; suitable for counter-trend scalps. ________________________________________ 🔑 Strategy Note Gold remains under pressure below 3,673–3,705, favouring short setups into premium sweeps. However, close attention is needed at 3,634–3,636, as buyers may attempt to accumulate and reclaim structure. Best practice: trade smaller lots until the New York session provides confirmation of direction.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Ryan_TitanTrader
XAUUSD Forecast – Gold Price Action and Market InsightsXAUUSD Forecast – Gold Price Action and Market Insights Gold is showing signs of stabilization after recent fluctuations, with price consolidating around the mid-range levels. The chart highlights repeated sequences of structural breaks and shifts, indicating that liquidity has been actively swept on both the buy and sell side. The latest market move shows a controlled decline, followed by an attempt to absorb selling pressure. Current positioning suggests the possibility of a short-term liquidity grab to the downside, which could fuel a stronger recovery leg in the sessions ahead. The projected outlook favors a scenario where buyers regain momentum, aiming to retest the upper price zones. If this momentum develops, the market may establish a renewed upward leg in alignment with the broader bullish cycle observed across higher timeframes. From a macro perspective, gold continues to be supported by demand for safe-haven assets amid ongoing global financial uncertainty and shifting monetary policies. This backdrop enhances the probability of gold sustaining its mid-term bullish trajectory despite temporary corrective phases.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by XAU_EMPIRE
Today's Gold Price: Short at HighsToday's Gold Price: Short at Highs In the coming days, every rise in gold prices will be an opportunity for selling pressure, so consider shorting at high levels whenever possible. As shown in Figure 2h: 1: Gold prices are testing macroeconomic support levels, with the strongest support currently in the 3635-3640 range. 2: Once this range is broken, gold prices will continue to fluctuate downward, testing support in the 3600-3620 range. 3: Due to a lack of policy and news stimulus, gold prices are unlikely to break new highs again this week. 4: Friday's trend will continue to fluctuate, with the range between 3620-3675. 5: Based on key support and resistance levels, the trading strategy is: short at highs and long at lows. 6: Support + Resistance Levels: 3600/3620/3635/3650/3660/3675/3700 7: Macro Trading Strategy: Buy: 3620-3635 Stop Loss: 3615 Target: 3660 Sell: 3660-3675 Stop Loss: 3680 Target: 3620 8: Every subsequent rise in gold prices is likely the result of selling pressure. Therefore, whenever gold prices rise, shorting at high levels and following the trend is the most reliable strategy this Friday.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Timo_Weber
Gold holds firm at 3,63x | Caution for Friday session🟡 XAU/USD – 19/09 | Captain Vincent ⚓ 🔎 Captain’s Log – Market Context FED : Probability of a 25bps cut in October is 91.9%, while holding rates is only 8.9% → almost certain FED will continue easing. US News : No major data today, market remains quiet. Gold : Sharp moves in Asia session, but support 3,632 – 3,630 held strong. Yesterday’s Buy at 3,62x delivered 200 pips , confirming this zone as a “fortress” support. Note : Today is Friday – end of the week session, unexpected volatility may occur before the weekly close → strict risk management required. ⏩ Captain’s Summary : Gold remains bullish, but caution is needed with end-of-week swings. Golden Harbor around 3,63x continues to be a solid anchor. 📈 Captain’s Chart – Technical Analysis Storm Breaker (Resistance / Sell Zone) 3,661 – 3,663 (intraday resistance) 3,683 – 3,685 (strong OB, likely profit-taking zone) Golden Harbor (Support / Buy Zone) 3,602 – 3,605 (FVG zone – deeper support if 3,63x breaks, waiting for strong demand) Market Structure After rebounding from 3,62x, Gold consolidated around 3,65x – 3,66x. Main trend stays bullish, but needs support retest to confirm buyers’ strength. 3,66x is the pivot barrier: • Breakout → targets 3,68x • Rejection → retest 3,64x – 3,62x 🎯 Captain’s Map – Trade Plan ✅ Buy (priority) Entry: 3,602 – 3,605 SL: 3,588 TP: 3,629 – 3,661 – 3,683 ⚡ Sell (short scalp) Entry: 3,683 – 3,685 SL: 3,695 TP: 3,665 – 3,645 ⚓ Captain’s Note “The 3,63x fortress continues to hold, keeping the Golden ship safe on its northward journey. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3,602 – 3,605) remains the main dock for sailors to gather strength. Storm Breaker 🌊 (3,683 – 3,685) may raise waves, suitable for short Quick Boarding 🚤 . Today is Friday – the sea can shift unexpectedly, so keep the sails full but hands steady on the helm.”
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by CaptainVincent
1
XAUUSD: Sideway Trading Opportunity Before Further Decline?Hello, fellow traders! Today, we will analyze XAUUSD and identify a great trading opportunity in the sideway trend before gold could potentially continue its downward adjustment. Yesterday, although the Fed cut interest rates to 4.25% as expected (4.25% compared to 4.50% previously) , the cut did not exceed expectations, reducing the outlook for further policy easing. The USD may no longer weaken , putting downward pressure on gold. In addition, the unemployment claims data came in lower than forecast (231K vs. 241K) , indicating a strong labor market, which will support the USD. When the USD strengthens, gold typically faces downward pressure, meaning gold prices could fall further if the USD continues to strengthen. Gold is facing strong resistance at 3,700 , showing signs of a decline. The 3,660 zone is a key rebound level, and if support at 3,600 is not broken, gold could trade sideways before continuing the downward trend. Low trading volume and flow of funds suggest that the sideway trend could continue in the short term. Don’t forget, our trading strategy needs to be flexible, seizing opportunities, and never missing any market changes.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ShadowReaper_
2
Gold Dips After Fed Meeting: What's Next for the Market?Hey traders! After a super volatile session, gold prices took a hit yesterday (September 18). The precious metal dropped 0.4% to $3,643.40/oz, while futures contracts lost 1.1% to $3,678.30/oz. This comes right after gold hit a new record of $3,707.40/oz in the previous session. Is this a signal for a major correction or just a bit of profit-taking? Let's break it down! Fundamental Analysis: The Market 'Digests' the Fed's Message While the Fed did cut rates by 0.25% as expected, the message from the meeting wasn't entirely 'dovish'. Fed Chair Jerome Powell raised doubts about the pace of future policy easing. He stressed that the rate cut was just a "risk management" move to address a weakening labor market, not a firm promise for aggressive easing. USD Recovers: The Fed's cautious stance helped the USD index gain 0.5%, making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies. Long-Term Drivers Still Strong: Despite the short-term dip, experts remain bullish on gold. The core drivers for its rally are still in place: BRIC Central Bank Buying: Central banks, especially from China, continue to diversify their reserves, moving away from the USD. Safe-Haven Demand: Ongoing geopolitical and trade tensions are still a key reason for investors to flock to gold. Swiss Data Confirms: Data shows that gold exports from Switzerland to China jumped 254% in August 2025 compared to July, which proves that real demand is super strong. Technical Analysis: Unpredictable Volatility After the FOMC meeting, gold was all over the place, breaking through resistance and support levels in a flash. The market is reacting more to macro news than to technical patterns right now. Resistance: $3671, $3686, $3694 Support: $3647, $3632, $3612, $3598 Outlook: Today, we should still prefer long positions if gold stays above the $365x level. However, if gold closes a candle below $364x during the US session, be cautious and consider a switch to sell positions. Suggested Trading Strategy (Use Strict Risk Management): SELL ZONE Zone: $3686 - $3688 SL: $3696 TP: $3678 - $3668 - $3658 - $3648 - $3638 BUY ZONE Zone: $3616 - $3614 SL: $3606 TP: $3624 - $3634 - $3644 - $3654 - $3664 The market is super sensitive to news right now. Always be careful and don't overtrade. Do you think this is a buying opportunity or a time to step back? Share your thoughts in the comments below! 👇 #Gold #XAUUSD #Fed #GoldAnalysis #TradingView #FinancialMarkets #TechnicalAnalysis #GoldTrading #USD #BRIC
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Jeremy_NPC
GOLD - Breakout / Swept High appear - Where to BUY ? 🟡 OANDA:XAUUSD XAUUSD Daily Plan – September 19, 2025 1. Market Overview Price is consolidating around 3655 – 3660 after forming a short-term bearish structure. On H1, several supply & demand zones are highlighted: Liquidity Buy Zone around 3640 (potential demand). Imbalance / Supply Zone around 3670 – 3680. The overall higher-timeframe trend remains bullish, but in the short term, the market is retesting liquidity areas. 2. Key Levels & Zones Liquidity Buy Zone: 3640 – 3645 → key support. Sell Scalp Zone / Imbalance: 3670 – 3680 → short-term resistance. Higher High Target (HH): 3700 – 3710 → strong higher-timeframe resistance. Longer-term Support: 3620 – 3630. 3. Main Trading Scenarios 🟢 Long Setup (trend-aligned) Wait for price to retest Liquidity Buy zone 3640 – 3645. If reversal signals appear (pin bar, engulfing, etc.), consider opening Long. Targets: Short-term: 3678 (trendline break retest). Mid-term: 3700 – 3710 (HH). 🔴 Short Setup (scalp only) If price retraces into Sell Scalp Zone 3670 – 3680 and shows strong rejection → Short scalp opportunity. Target: 3640 – 3645. Note: Short trades are counter-trend, so manage quickly. 4. Trade Management Notes Prioritize Longs from support zones since the higher-timeframe trend is still bullish. Shorts should only be seen as short-term scalp opportunities near resistance. Risk management: limit to 1–2% per trade, avoid holding against the main trend. 📌 Conclusion: XAUUSD is currently testing the descending trendline and resistance area. A successful breakout could target 3700+. Otherwise, the market is likely to revisit 3640 before launching the next bullish leg.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Linda_OneShotTrader
XAUUSD – Correction Target on H4Technical Analysis After reacting at the Sell Zone – FVG around 3,670, Gold could not sustain the upward momentum and is now showing signs of weakness. The H4 structure indicates that the correction phase is extending, with price likely to retest key support areas below. On the chart, the support zones at 3,633–3,632 and 3,626 are acting as intermediate levels. If these zones fail to hold, selling pressure may push price deeper towards 3,614–3,612, before testing the major support confluence with Fibonacci extension and the potential Buy Zone at 3,579–3,560. The RSI is currently hovering around 45–50, suggesting momentum is tilted towards a corrective move rather than a strong uptrend. Trading Scenarios SELL Setup (preferred): Entry: on a retest of the 3,665–3,670 Sell Zone SL: above 3,675 Targets: 3,633–3,632-3,626-3,614–3,612-3,579–3,560 BUY Setup (short-term / scalping): Entry: consider buys around 3,626–3,625 support SL: below 3,618 Targets:3,633-3,645-3,650 Key Levels to Watch 3,670: Sell Zone – confluence with FVG post-FOMC. 3,633–3,626: Short-term support; a break below confirms extended bearish pressure. 3,612: Key level for deciding near-term direction. 3,579–3,560: Potential Buy Zone and main corrective target on H4. Traders may keep these levels on watch and align positions accordingly. Follow for quicker access to future updates.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by LiamTradingFX
XAUUSD –Today’s Trading Outlook | Sell Fill Liquidity & Buy Zone Hello traders, In the recent sessions, gold has continued to show strong volatility around important liquidity zones and support–resistance levels. The current structure indicates that sellers remain in control in the short term, while buyers are expected to return only if price reaches deeper support areas. Technical View Main Resistance: 3670 – 3680, aligning with the FVG zone → key area for Sell to Fill Liquidity. Short-term Support: 3630 – 3627. A break below could open the way for a deeper decline. Buy Scalping Zones: 3613 – 3615 and 3595 – 3598, suitable for quick intraday longs. Medium-term Buy Zone: 3600 – 3590, confluence with strong liquidity zone and major support. MACD Indicator: leaning bearish, with a negative histogram, showing selling pressure still dominant. Trading Scenarios Sell Setup (priority) Sell Liquidity Zone: 3670 – 3680 SL: 3685 TP: 3650 – 3635 – 3627 – 3615 – 3600 Buy Scalping Buy Zone 1: 3613 – 3615 | SL: 3608 | TP: 3625 – 3638 – 3645 Buy Zone 2: 3595 – 3598 | SL: 3590 | TP: 3610 – 3625 – 3638 – 3645 – 3670 Medium-term Buy Zone: 3600 – 3590 SL: 3584 Extended TP: 3633 – 3660 – 3675 Conclusion In the short term, gold is likely to retest the upper liquidity zone before continuing with further declines. Sellers remain in control for now, but deeper support zones will provide potential entry levels for medium-term buyers. Keep a close watch on these key levels and align your trades with your personal strategy. Follow along to get the earliest updates whenever market structure changes.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by BrianLionCapital