Gold oscillation adjustment pattern: 3320-3360Gold oscillation adjustment pattern: 3320-3360
Next, the focus of the gold market will mainly focus on the Fed's upcoming interest rate resolution, and its interest rate cut and guidance on future policies will become key catalysts for the gold price trend in the short term.
Fundamental analysis:
1: The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its meeting on September 17-18 (the probability is as high as more than 90%). The current market pricing reflects the expectation of a cumulative interest rate cut of 70 basis points this year (that is, it may also include interest rate cuts in October and December).
2: Lax labor market: The number of initial unemployment claims in the United States rose sharply last week, recording its worst performance in the past four years, strengthening the need for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
3: Inflation stickiness: In August, the US CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month (0.3% exceeded expectations). This shows that inflationary pressure still exists, but the data is basically in line with expectations, and the market is more concerned about the downside risks of the employment market.
4: Geopolitical risks: The continued tension in the Middle East and the uncertainty in many places around the world continue to provide safe-haven support for gold.
5: Trend of central bank gold purchases: Many central banks around the world (such as the People's Bank of China and the Central Bank of Poland) continue to increase their holdings of gold reserves and relax import and export rules, which provides support for gold prices in the long-term structural sense.
6: "Super Economic Week": A number of major economic events and data were released this week, including US retail sales data in August ("terror data"), housing start data, and interest rate decisions from Canada, the United Kingdom and the Bank of Japan, which may exacerbate market volatility.
Technical analysis:
Macro support: US$3587-3600
Macro resistance: $3675, after breaking through, it looks at $3700 and $3758
4-hour level
Short-term support: US$3620-3630
Short-term resistance: $3660-3675
As shown in the figure: High sideways oscillation consolidation range: (3620-3660)
Short-term core range: US$3637-3650
The direction is waiting to break.
Operational strategies and suggestions
Aggressive long positions: Consider focusing on supporting the region to stabilize at US$3630-3620 and moving forward with a light position and a target of US$3658-3675, with a stop loss below 3610.
Stable long positions: If the gold price pulls back to the US$3587-3600 area and gets support, you can consider layout long positions, with the same target as above, and the stop loss is set below 3570.
Aggressive short positions: After the current resistance is under pressure in the US$3660-3674 area, try short positions with a light position, the target is US$3630-3620, and the stop loss is set above 3675.
Safe short positions: If the gold price rebounds to near the integer mark of $3,700, you can consider trying shorts, and the target is to look at a pullback of $100-150, and the stop loss is set above 3,710.
