Gold Plan - Waiting for a pullback to Buy safely | New ATH ahead🟡 XAU/USD – 09/09 | Captain Vincent ⚓
🔎 Captain’s Log – News Context
FED : The probability of a September rate cut is now almost certain, reinforcing confidence that flows will continue moving into Gold.
Dollar : Dropped to a 7-week low due to FED rate cut expectations, adding further support for Gold.
US Economic Data : No major news today, the market focus remains on interest rates.
⏩ Captain’s Summary: Gold remains in a strong uptrend. However, Vincent advises waiting for a pullback into support to Buy safely , avoiding chasing price at higher levels.
📈 Captain’s Chart – Technical Analysis
Storm Breaker (Resistance / Sell Zone) :
Quick Boarding: 3654 – 3656 (Short-term Sell scalp)
Storm Breaker Peak: 3673 – 3675 (Sell zone – potential new ATH)
Golden Harbor (Support / Buy Zone) :
Buy Scalp Dock: 3615 – 3617
Main Golden Harbor: 3597 – 3599 (Strong support)
Price structure remains bullish after multiple BOS – Break of Structure. Current highs may trigger short-term profit-taking waves before Gold pulls back to Golden Harbor and then rallies toward ATH 367x .
🎯 Captain’s Map – Trade Scenarios
✅ Golden Harbor (BUY – Priority with trend)
Buy Scalp: 3615 – 3617 | SL: 3598 | TP: 3620 → 3623 → 3626 → 3630 → 36xx
Main Buy Zone: 3597 – 3599 | SL: 3589 | TP: 3660 → 3663 → 3666 → 3670 → 36xx
⚡ Quick Boarding (SELL Scalp – Only at resistance)
Sell Zone 1: 3654 – 3656 | SL: 3662 | TP: 3650 → 3647 → 3644 → 3640 → 36xx
Sell Zone 2 – Storm Breaker Peak (ATH test): 3673 – 3675 | SL: 3682 | TP: 3670 → 3667 → 3664 → 3660 → 36xx
⚓ Captain’s Note
“The interest rate winds from the FED continue to power the Golden sails. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3597 – 3599) is the safe haven for sailors trusting the bullish tide. Quick Boarding 🚤 (3615 – 3617) is just a short ride before the voyage resumes. Storm Breaker 🌊 (3654 – 3675) may bring big waves, but it’s only suitable for technical scalps – as the main current still carries Gold toward new highs.”
GOLDCFD trade ideas
Gold is currently in a period of profit-taking.Gold is currently in a period of profit-taking.
As shown in Figure 2h:
1: Clearly, gold prices have fallen after two consecutive days of positive news. The motivation is clear: gold has reached a record high, and everyone is taking advantage of the good news to sell.
2: Important CPI data will be released today, and everyone is waiting to see whether gold prices will show any new momentum after the release. This is already very clear. Even if the data is positive, the likelihood of gold prices reaching new highs is low. I still maintain my view that gold prices will struggle to reach new highs this week.
3: Gold prices need some time to breathe and adjust, and the specific technical pattern is: wide range fluctuations.
Strategy Analysis:
1: Buying low remains the mainstream strategy.
2: Focus on the next important price support levels:
3620: (Current support level, range: 3620-3660)
3600: (Current support level, important round number support level)
Many people ask whether round number support levels are useful. It's like if you go to the supermarket and see the same item priced at $1,000 and $999.9, you'll definitely choose the $999.9, right?
This is the core logic behind round-number support and resistance levels. People always set a standard for judgment.
3580-3570 (Current Trend Support, Currently the Strongest Support Level)
3: You can certainly participate in short selling, but don't be overly bullish on your short position. Once a trend is established, it won't change easily. Intraday short selling is fine.
4: Strategy:
Sell 1: 3630-3635
Stop Loss: 3645
Sell 2: 3650-3655
Stop Loss: 3665
Target Price: 3620-3600
Note: Short selling is suitable for intraday trading.
Buy 1: 3620
Buy 2: 3600
Buy 3: 3580
Stop Loss: 3568-3570
Note: Long positions require a swing trading strategy and be prepared for long-term trading.
XAUUSD – Latest Trend UpdateXAUUSD – Latest Trend Update
Hello Traders,
Gold is moving in line with yesterday’s outlook: after a corrective pullback towards 3660, price resumed its decline and is currently trending lower. If this bearish structure is confirmed on the higher timeframes such as H1 and H4, it may signal that a larger corrective phase on the D1 chart has already begun.
Key Levels to Watch
3620: Marked as an important support zone from yesterday, now considered the key level to confirm continued downside.
3630: Aligned with the lower boundary of the ascending channel, where a reaction could occur before the trend direction becomes clearer.
Medium-Term Scenarios
Gold could decline towards 3550, before bouncing higher again – this is the preferred medium-term scenario.
A deeper move towards 3510 is also possible, where liquidity from previous candle wicks may be retested, before the broader uptrend resumes on the daily timeframe.
The reason for favouring this medium-term downside: price has already completed the Fibonacci Extension 2.618, which often signals the potential for a corrective pullback.
Trading Strategy
Observe reactions around 3630 – 3620 – 3610 for potential buy opportunities aligned with the broader bullish structure.
Sell setups should only be considered if price closes firmly below 3620, confirming further downside momentum.
This is my trading plan for gold today. Use it as a reference and feel free to share your own perspective in the comments.
Bulls Pausing, Bears Hopeless? Gold Awaits CPI TriggerGold is currently taking a breather after its strong bull run, just as highlighted in the last couple of updates. On the daily chart, price action is consolidating within the 3620–3650/55 zone, and with CPI data lined up today, a breakout from this range could set the next decisive move.
Sentiment-wise, bulls remain in full control, while bears look like they’re running out of steam. Still, a healthy reset is overdue after such an extended rally. From a price action perspective, there are no clear signs of reversal on any major timeframe yet. The key support to watch remains 3600 on a daily closing basis. As long as price holds above this level, the bullish structure is safe.
If 3600 gives way, we could see a deeper pullback toward 3589 (Fib 0.236 support) and then into the 3550–55 zone, which stands as the next strong secondary support. Until then, consolidation here should be treated as part of the ongoing bullish cycle rather than a trend reversal.
Gold Trading Strategy for 11th September 2025Detailed trading plan — GOLD (15-min breakout rules)
Raw rules :
Buy: if a 15-minute candle closes above the high at $3658 → targets $3669, $3680, $3691.
Sell: if a 15-minute candle closes below the low at $3619 → targets $3610, $3600, $3585.
Execution & order types (step-by-step)
A. Buy setup (how to enter)
Wait for a 15-minute candle to close above the candle high at $3658.
Entry options (choose one):
Buy-stop: place a buy-stop at $3659 (one tick/point above the trigger) so the market enters if price continues up.
Initial stop-loss: place stop below the low of the breakout 15-min candle (or a small buffer below that low to avoid noise). If you prefer a fixed buffer, use e.g. $0.50–$2.00 below that low depending on volatility.
B. Sell setup (how to enter)
Wait for a 15-minute candle to close below the low at $3619.
Entry options:
Sell-stop at $3618 (one tick below trigger), or market sell after the 15-min close.
Initial stop-loss: place stop above the high of the breakout 15-min candle (or a small buffer above).
DISCLAIMER (required)
This is educational / informational only — not financial advice. Trading financial instruments involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. You alone are responsible for any trades you place. Always test strategies in a demo environment, use appropriate position sizing, and consult a licensed financial advisor if you need personalized advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Gold prices have entered a wide range of 3330-3360.Gold prices have entered a wide range of 3330-3360.
As shown in Figure 4h:
Gold prices remain strong today.
Although gold prices fell sharply yesterday due to profit-taking, they have risen again today.
The impact of news and sentiment has largely reversed.
The market has returned to volatility, and gold prices are currently holding generally high around 3650 points.
I believe gold is unlikely to break new highs today.
The market needs a buffer zone for adjustment.
Sideways trading at high levels is the most likely pattern for gold prices going forward.
Based on this:
For Wednesday's strategy, I believe we can try a short position.
Sell: 3360-3370
Stop loss: 3380
Target: 3350-
This strategy is for intraday reference only.
With the revision of non-farm payroll data, tomorrow's CPI data will be a key focus.
Gold prices are forming a converging ascending triangle pattern, and the possibility of an upside breakout remains high.
This week, there's a strong chance that gold prices will break through the 3700-3750 range.
Therefore, buying low remains the prevailing strategy.
For this reason, it's crucial to clearly identify all key support levels.
Currently, key support levels for gold are: $3640, $3625, $3600, $3580, and $3560.
We can identify a high-probability range for gold price fluctuations: $3330-3360.
Key support levels to watch: $3625-3630.
I would most likely enter a position in this range.
However, if a pullback breaks through this range, gold prices could fall to $3580-3560.
Therefore, we should closely monitor this range when entering a position.
“XAUUSD – Strong Retracement From New All-Time High (ATH) 3650“XAUUSD – Strong Retracement From New All-Time High (ATH) 3650
Gold (XAUUSD) reached the all-time high resistance / PRZ zone (3645–3680) and immediately showed rejection signs, confirming this level as a high-probability reversal point.
📊 Technical Breakdown
PRZ Rejection: The move above 3650 failed to sustain, indicating a liquidity grab and false breakout structure.
Momentum Exhaustion: A parabolic advance from 3330 support into ATH left behind multiple imbalances (FVGs) that now attract price back down.
Liquidity Dynamics: The rejection suggests buy-side liquidity has been taken, and the market may now seek sell-side liquidity below recent swing lows.
Market Structure: Intraday structure shows early signs of a bearish shift, with lower highs forming under 3635–3625.
🎯 Downside Targets
3585–3578 → First corrective level (38.2% retracement).
3565 → Key midpoint of the rally.
3545–3516 → Liquidity + 61.8–78.6% retracement cluster.
3480–3460 → Previous consolidation base.
3330–3320 → Major high-timeframe support demand zone.
⚠️ Invalidation
If buyers reclaim 3660–3680 with strong daily closes, the bearish retracement scenario will be invalidated, opening the path toward new ATH extensions.
📌 Conclusion:
Gold’s rejection at 3650 ATH PRZ is a significant technical signal. Current order flow suggests a retracement phase toward 3580–3515, with potential extension to 3330–3320 key support if selling pressure persists.
Gold Breaks New Highs, Momentum Still Favouring BullsHello everyones,
The past week has been quite rewarding for gold as it surged through major resistance levels and printed fresh highs. On the H4 chart, the trend looks very clear: price action is holding firmly above the Ichimoku cloud, with Tenkan sitting comfortably above Kijun, and the cloud slope widening further. Multiple Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) remain unfilled below, showing that buying momentum is powerful and liquidity is being left behind — a signature of a strong rally, not just a short-term move.
In terms of price action, the immediate resistance lies between $3,535–3,560. A clean H4 close above this area may unlock the next natural expansion towards $3,580–3,600. On the downside, layered supports are found at $3,520–3,505, then $3,485–3,470, and deeper at $3,440–3,420, coinciding with the upper edge of the cloud, often tested during medium-term uptrends.
Fundamentally, the environment still favours buyers: safe-haven demand is rising, the Fed is expected to ease policy sooner, and the USD is weakening, all adding fuel to the bullish case. Unless gold closes back into the cloud and loses the $3,440–3,420 zone, the probability of trend continuation remains high.
Do you think gold can stretch further from here? Share your thoughts below!
Gold Cooling Off After ATH Consolidation or Correction?Gold cooled off a bit after hitting a fresh ATH around 3675, right near the monthly R3 level. This pullback, however, looks more like a healthy breather than any real weakness, since the key 3600 support is still holding strong. Right now, price is taking support around 3620–25, and bulls are doing a good job defending this zone. As long as this area stays intact(H4 close), the higher-high structure remains valid, meaning gold can easily revisit 3650 or even push back toward the highs.
For now, we can say this as a normal pullback within the trend rather than a reversal. To call it a reversal, we need to see a lower high form on the higher timeframes. Until that happens, some sideways consolidation here makes sense, with 3600 being the big level to keep an eye on for any breakdown.
Gold prices are expected to fluctuate significantly: 3660-3600.Gold prices are expected to fluctuate significantly: 3660-3600.
Gold bulls clearly took advantage of today's positive news to take profits, causing the price to drop sharply by nearly $50.
Gold prices are likely to fluctuate significantly in the coming days.
Intraday Strategy:
SELL: 3645-3650
SL: 3660
TP: 3635-3628-3615-3600
The above strategy is suitable for intraday trading. Contrarian short selling depends on market sentiment, which in turn determines the intraday trend of gold prices.
When short selling, it is important to remain vigilant and exit as soon as profits are seen.
As shown in Figure 2h:
Gold's key support area is around 3628-3630.
The key turning point for gold prices is in the 3580-3600 range.
The market is likely to continue to fluctuate widely over the next day, with a high probability of repeated fluctuations and momentum accumulation, making trading more difficult. I believe that over the next few days, we should focus on key support and resistance levels to buy low and sell high.
Gold prices may struggle to reach 3670+ in the short term.
The likely range of fluctuation is 3600-3660.
A wide range of fluctuations is the most reasonable approach to future gold price trends.
xau paper trade placedjuda swing completed in asian session..now london will continue bearish ,
Asian Session Recap: Price action showed a completed swing, likely testing a key resistance zone before reversing.
London Session Setup:
Bias: Bearish continuation expected, especially if price remains below intraday resistance zones.
Key Resistance: Watch the $3,500–$3,530 zone for potential rejection.
Support Targets:
First target: $3,470 zone
Extended target: $3,430–$3,440 zone if momentum picks up
Indicators to Watch:
DXY strength (U.S. Dollar Index): If it holds above 97.70, gold may stay pressured
Volume and volatility spikes around London open
XAUUSD – Weekly Trading Plan: Bulls Still in Control MMFLOW TRADING PLAN XAUUSD
Market View:
Gold (XAUUSD) is trading exactly as expected from our weekly outlook. After the big Nonfarm push near $3600/oz ATH, price is consolidating around 357x–358x while holding the rising trendline. Both Daily and Weekly charts remain bullish, showing that buyers are still strong. The bias for this week stays upside, but volatility can come from key US data (PPI, CPI, Jobless Claims, UoM Sentiment).
Technical Outlook (H1 Chart):
Structure is bullish as long as price holds above 3550.
If 3592 breaks cleanly → more upside towards 3620–3640+.
If 3575 or 3530 breaks → expect a pullback before buyers return.
Trading Plan:
🔵 BUY ZONE: 3552 – 3550 | SL: 3544 | TP: 3556 → 3560 → 3565 → 3570 → 3575 → 3580 → ????
🔵 BUY SCALP: 3573 – 3571 | SL: 3567 | TP: 3578 → 3582 → 3586 → 3590 → ????
🔴 SELL SCALP: 3598 – 3600 | SL: 3604 | TP: 3595 → 3590 → 3585 → 3580 → 3570 → 3560 → ????
🔴 SELL ZONE: 3631 – 3633 | SL: 3638 | TP: 3626 → 3622 → 3618 → 3614 → 3610 → 3600 → ????
Summary:
✅ Gold remains in a strong uptrend.
👉 Watch 3592 (bullish trigger) and 3575 (bearish trigger) – these levels will decide the next big move.
Follow MMFLOW TRADING for daily setups and updates.
XAU/USD – GOLD 08/09 | Captain VincentObserving JPY & USD | Buy still holds dominance
🔎 Captain’s Log – News Context
This morning there were no major new updates.
The US session tonight (08/09) will also not release big data.
The latest impact on the market is Japanese PM S. Ishiba’s resignation , which pressured JPY downward and slightly lifted the Dollar.
However, Gold only made a small correction and maintained strong stability.
➡️ Captain’s Summary: Dollar and JPY currently only have indirect influence, not enough to push Gold deeply lower. The main trend is still supported for a bullish rebound.
📈 Captain’s Chart – Technical Analysis
Captain’s Shield (Main Support):
Golden Harbor OB: 3542 – 3549
Main Buy Zone: 3549 – 3551
Liquidity Dock: 3573 – 3575
Storm Breaker (Resistance):
Quick Boarding: 3602 – 3604 (Short-term Sell scalp)
Storm Breaker Peak: 3632 – 3634 (Sell zone – may form a new ATH)
⏩ Price structure remains bullish (continuous BOS). Corrections are mainly liquidity grabs before pushing up to higher resistance zones.
🎯 Captain’s Map – Trade Scenarios
✅ Golden Harbor (BUY – Priority)
Buy Zone: 3549 – 3551 | SL: 3542 | TP: 3553 → 3557 → 3560 → 3563 → 35xx
Liquidity Dock: 3573 – 3575 | SL: 3565 | TP: 3578 → 3581 → 3583 → 35xx
⚡ Quick Boarding (SELL Scalp – Short-term)
Entry: 3602 – 3604
SL: 3610
TP: 3600 → 3597 → 3594 → 3591 → 3588 → 35xx
🌊 Storm Breaker (SELL Zone – New ATH)
Entry: 3632 – 3634
SL: 3640
TP: 3629 → 3625 → 3623 → 3619 → 361x
⚓ Captain’s Note
“The golden ship sails steadily as the seas remain calm this morning, with no big news waves. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3549 – 3551) together with OB near 3542 is the safe anchorage for sailors riding the bullish trend. Liquidity Dock ⚓ (3573 – 3575) is just a temporary anchor before the bullish winds carry the ship further. Quick Boarding 🚤 (3602 – 3604) is for those who want to ride short-term waves. And if the ship touches Storm Breaker 🌊 (3632 – 3634) , it may be a new wave peak – but the grand journey is still headed North with the bullish sails full of wind.”
Gold Marks New ATH at 3600 – Bulls Still in ControlGold closed last week on a very strong note, posting its highest daily and weekly close and also printing a new all-time high at 3600, which now stands as an important psychological resistance Level. The overall price action structure continues to favor the bulls, with no major signs of reversal visible on any time frame.
For this week, the weekly pivot at 3541 will be going to act as the first line of support, followed by the previous ATH at 3500 as the secondary and more critical level to hold. While some consolidation or pullback from current levels cannot be ruled out given the stretched rally and overbought conditions (daily,H4) these dips can be viewed as healthy rather than bearish. As long as gold holds above 3500 on a closing basis, the broader trend remains bullish, and any corrective moves are likely to attract buying interest.
In short, unless bears can force a decisive break below 3500 (Daily close or week), gold bullish momentum remains intact, with scope for continuation above 3600 once consolidation is done.
XAUUSD At Critical PRZ: Will Gold Reverse or Break to New Highs?Hello Traders And Investors
XAUUSD At Critical PRZ: Will Gold Reverse or Break to New Highs? 🔥”
The recent price action on Gold (XAUUSD) has reached a very critical level near $3,586 – $3,600, which aligns with a strong resistance zone. This area is marked as a Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ), where sellers may step back into the market.
🔍 Market Structure Breakdown:
Previous Liquidity Sweep
Price collected liquidity below the July lows before forming a Higher Low at the start of August.
This move gave the market strength to push higher, creating a clean bullish structure.
Strong Impulsive Rally
From mid-August onwards, gold showed a strong bullish impulse, breaking through minor resistance levels without much pullback.
However, such parabolic moves often lack sustainability, making them vulnerable to a healthy correction.
Resistance & PRZ Reaction
The current resistance zone has historically acted as a strong rejection level.
Price tapping into this zone suggests exhaustion in bullish momentum, increasing the probability of a short-term pullback.
🎯 Target Zones for Downside Move:
1st Target: $3,480 – $3,500
This area coincides with a previous demand block and will act as the first reaction point.
Final Target: $3,330 – $3,320 (Key Support)
If bearish momentum sustains, price could revisit this major support, completing the correction phase before potentially resuming the broader uptrend.
Gold Trading Strategy for Monday✅ On Friday's US trading session, gold saw a strong upward movement and successfully broke the downward trendline on the 1-hour chart, indicating that bulls are in control of the market. The current short-term pullback is merely a correction and has not changed the overall uptrend. Due to the strong bullish momentum, the short-term pullback does not indicate a trend reversal and, in fact, provides an opportunity for buying on dips.
✅ On the 4-hour chart, gold has experienced short-term consolidation, but the overall trend remains bullish. The MACD is in a strong zone, and the KDJ indicator is still in a bullish zone, suggesting that the price may continue to rise in the short term.
In the short term, there is support around the 3660-3670 region. If the price pulls back to this level, consider buying. If the price breaks above 3685, further bullish movement can be expected.
🔴 Resistance levels: 3702-3707 / 3720-3730
🟢 Support levels: 3660-3670 / 3636-3640
✅ Trading strategy reference:
🔰 If gold price rebounds to the 3702-3705 area, consider selling in batches with a target of 3690-3680, and if broken, look for a further move to 3670.
🔰 If gold price pulls back to the 3665-3670 area, consider buying in batches with a target of 3685-3695, and if broken, look for a further move to 3705.
🔥Trading Reminder: Trading strategies are time-sensitive, and market conditions can change rapidly. Please adjust your trading plan based on real-time market conditions.
Gold Price Today: XAUUSD Sets Stage for Continued Bullish ExpansGold (XAUUSD) Market Report – September 21, 2025
Gold remains positioned near 3,685, with recent price behavior showing a structured climb despite short bursts of volatility. The market is cycling through phases of expansion and retracement, where each corrective leg has been followed by renewed upward momentum. This rhythm signals that buyers are steadily maintaining control of the broader trend.
The current setup reflects a market that is rebalancing efficiently. Short-term pullbacks are being absorbed quickly, keeping pressure aligned toward the upside. The sequence of structural shifts on the chart points to a continuation of this momentum, suggesting that higher valuations are within reach if the present flow persists.
Overall, gold’s tone is constructive, characterized by resilience and sustained demand. The pattern unfolding indicates a market preparing for further expansion, with the potential for continuation into higher ranges in the sessions ahead.
A bullish outlookWaves 1, 2, and 3: The chart shows a completed impulse sequence with a long and strong Wave 3, which followed a Bull Flag continuation pattern.
Wave 4 Correction: Gold is currently believed to be in a corrective Wave 4. This correction is taking the shape of an Ascending Broadening Wedge, a pattern characterized by two upward-slanting, diverging trendlines.
Support: A key support level is marked at approximately $3,324.790, which served as the base for the recent major rally.
Price Target: The red arrow indicates an expected rally towards the region between the 2.414 ($3,818.931) and 3.0 ($3,865.262) Fibonacci levels.
Gold is poised for another significant rally to new highs, potentially reaching the $3,820 - $3,865 price range.
PLAN FOR SUNDAY EVENING SUNDAY TRADING CHEAT-SHEET (XAUUSD & USDJPY)
✅ General Rules
• Avoid thefirst 15–30 min of Sunday open (low liquidity, wide spreads).
• Always mark: PDH, PDL, Weekly Open, Friday Close.
• Trade only after confirmation:
Liquidity Grab → BOS/CHOCH → Retest → Conviction Candle.
• No confirmation = No trade.
• Risk ≤ 1% per trade.
⸻
🟡 GOLD (XAUUSD)
Bias: Bearish from supply unless broken.
🔻 Short Setup (preferred)
• Supply Zone: 3,693 – 3,701
• Entry: 3,695 – 3,700 (after BOS down on 3m–5m)
• SL: Above 3,710
• TP1: 3,660
• TP2: 3,640
• TP3: 3,615
🟢 Long Setup (counterplay)
• Demand Zone: 3,640 – 3,650 (deep: 3,615 – 3,630)
• Entry: After BOS up on 3m–5m
• SL: Below 3,600
• TP1: 3,670
• TP2: 3,700
• TP3: 3,720
⸻
💴 USDJPY
Bias: Range between 147.40–148.40. Short from premium, long from discount.
🔻 Short Setup (preferred)
• Supply Zone: 148.20 – 148.40
• Entry: 148.25 – 148.35 (after BOS down on 3m–5m)
• SL: Above 148.50
• TP1: 147.90
• TP2: 147.60
• TP3: 147.00
🟢 Long Setup (counterplay)
• Demand Zone: 147.40 – 147.60
• Entry: 147.45 – 147.55 (after BOS up on 3m–5m)
• SL: Below 147.20
• TP1: 147.90
• TP2: 148.20
• TP3: 148.40
⸻
⚡ Confirmation Checklist
✅ Liquidity sweep inside zone
✅ BOS / CHOCH in your favor (on 3m–5m chart)
✅ Retest OB/FVG from that BOS
✅ Conviction candle close (red near low for shorts, green near high for longs)
⸻
📌 Plan Summary:
• Gold: Watch 3,693–3,701 for shorts, 3,640–3,650 for longs.
• USDJPY: Watch 148.20–148.40 for shorts, 147.40–147.60 for longs.
• Always confirm with BOS/CHOCH before entry.
XAU/USD: Sideway or Waiting for a Breakout?Hello traders, gold is currently in a clear sideways phase , moving within a narrow trading range between support at 3,652 USD and resistance at 3,700 USD. The chart shows that gold continues to fluctuate in this area without any signs of a strong breakout.
Although there is no major immediate news impact, the recent Fed rate cut has created a slight bullish bias for gold, as it continues to be viewed as a safe-haven asset in a low-interest-rate environment. This may support gold in holding within the current range, with a slight upside potential if price stays above the 3,652 USD support level.
If gold breaks above the 3,700 USD resistance , the uptrend could continue. However, if it breaks below current support levels , the market may see a correction. We need to monitor market signals closely to determine any trend shift.
PCR Trading Strategies1. Strategic Approaches to Options Trading
Options strategies can be simple or complex, depending on the trader’s risk tolerance, market outlook, and capital. These strategies are categorized into basic, intermediate, and advanced levels.
1.1. Basic Strategies
Buying Calls and Puts: Simple directional trades.
Protective Puts: Hedging against portfolio declines.
Covered Calls: Generating income from existing holdings.
1.2. Intermediate Strategies
Spreads: Simultaneous buying and selling of options to limit risk and reward.
Vertical Spread: Buying and selling options of the same type with different strike prices.
Horizontal/Calendar Spread: Exploiting differences in time decay by using options of the same strike but different expiration dates.
Diagonal Spread: Combining vertical and horizontal spreads for strategic positioning.
Collars: Combining protective puts and covered calls to limit both upside and downside.
1.3. Advanced Strategies
Iron Condor: Selling an out-of-the-money call and put while buying further OTM options to limit risk, profiting from low volatility.
Butterfly Spread: Exploiting low volatility by using three strike prices to maximize gains near the middle strike.
Ratio Spreads and Backspreads: Advanced plays to profit from skewed market expectations or strong directional moves.
2. Identifying Option Trading Opportunities
Successful options trading requires analyzing market conditions, volatility, and liquidity. Key factors include:
2.1. Market Direction and Momentum
Use technical indicators (moving averages, RSI, MACD) to gauge trends.
Trade options in alignment with market momentum for directional strategies.
2.2. Volatility Analysis
Historical Volatility (HV): Measures past price fluctuations.
Implied Volatility (IV): Market’s expectation of future volatility.
Opportunities arise when IV is underpriced (buy options) or overpriced (sell options).
2.3. Earnings and Event Plays
Companies’ earnings announcements, product launches, or macroeconomic events create volatility spikes.
Strategies like straddles or strangles are ideal to capitalize on such events.
2.4. Liquidity and Open Interest
Highly liquid options ensure tight spreads and efficient entry/exit.
Monitoring open interest helps identify support/resistance levels and market sentiment.
3. Risk Management in Options Trading
While options offer significant opportunities, risk management is crucial:
Position Sizing: Limit exposure to a small percentage of capital.
Defined-Risk Strategies: Use spreads and collars to control maximum loss.
Stop-Loss Orders: Protect against rapid adverse movements.
Diversification: Trade multiple assets or strategies to reduce concentration risk.
Implied Volatility Awareness: Avoid buying expensive options during volatility spikes unless justified by market events.
Elliott Wave Analysis XAUUSD – September 21, 2025
Momentum
• D1: Momentum is still declining → suggesting that early next week price may either experience a downward move or continue to range sideways.
• H4: Momentum is in the overbought zone → likely to see a corrective move on Monday.
• H1: Momentum is also in the overbought zone → during the Asian session on Monday, a short-term corrective decline is highly probable.
Wave Structure
• D1:
o Scenario 1: Wave v (black) has already completed (refer to H4). This means the market is now in a larger corrective phase, and price is unlikely to break above 3709, the high set last week.
o Scenario 2: Wave 4 (black) of wave v has completed, and Friday’s rally was wave 5 (black) of wave v. In this case, early next week we could see a breakout above 3709 with a daily close higher.
• H4: Since D1 and H4 momentum still support a corrective move on Monday, I will keep the current wave labeling unchanged. Only if price breaks strongly above 3709 will I update the labeling to Scenario 2.
• H1: On D1, the two scenarios are contradictory:
o One scenario suggests a decline.
o The other suggests a new high.
Therefore, the best approach for now is to wait for more confirmation. On H1, the labeling from last Friday (the bearish scenario) has not yet been invalidated and is still supported by both D1 and H4 momentum, so I will continue to monitor this count.
Trading Plan
During complex corrective phases, when wave structures are not yet clear, I do not recommend trading solely based on Elliott Wave. For now, the prudent approach is to continue observing until more data becomes available.
If trading is necessary, it’s better to focus on short-term scalps rather than larger swing positions.