Trade ideas
Elliott Wave Analysis XAUUSD – November 20, 20251. Momentum
D1:
The D1 momentum is turning upward, suggesting the market may see a mild bullish retracement or continue moving sideways within a narrow range.
H4:
H4 momentum is also preparing to turn upward. This indicates that today we may see a slight bullish push on the H4 chart, or price may continue to move sideways.
H1:
H1 momentum is preparing to turn upward, meaning we may see a small corrective bounce or continued sideways movement.
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2. Wave Structure
D1:
Price is currently moving sideways with small candle bodies. Combined with rising momentum, this suggests the market may continue forming a short-range corrective bounce.
H4:
Our main expectation remains a 5-wave structure for wave Y (purple).
Currently, price may be:
• Entering the early phase of wave 3, or
• Still completing wave 2.
👉 A clear confirmation for wave 3 will only come when price breaks below 4001. At that point, we expect price action to turn fast and steep—characteristics of a true wave 3 decline.
H1:
I have temporarily labeled the current structure as a bearish wave sequence since our primary bias is a developing red wave 3.
In this scenario, price may already be in the early part of wave 3.
❗️If price breaks above the green wave 2 high at 4097, this wave count becomes invalid. It would mean the market is still in red wave 2, and I will update the plan if that happens.
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3. Trade Plan
Sell Zone: 4093 – 4096
SL: 4016
TP1: 4000
TP2: 3885
TP3: 3746
XAUUSD/GOLD 1H SELL PROJECTION 21.11.25XAUUSD / GOLD 1H SELL projection based on the chart you uploaded:
✅ Overall View
The chart shows a confirmed uptrend line break + clean retest, which is a strong bearish signal on 1H timeframe. Your setup is technically correct and follows proper structure.
📉 SELL SETUP ANALYSIS
1. Entry Zone
Your entry is placed exactly at the support → turned resistance zone after the trendline break + retest.
This is a smart location because:
Price rejected the retest
Previous support is now acting as resistance
Weak bullish candles on retest confirm sellers are active
🛑 Stop Loss
Stop loss is placed above the retest wick, which is correct.
Because:
If price moves above this, structure becomes bullish again
SL protects you from fake breakout
🎯 Targets
TP1 – Resistance 1 (Now Support Zone)
Good first target. High probability area where price may react.
TP2 – R2
This level has strong confluence:
Previous consolidation zone
Fresh liquidity area
High chance price may reach here if bearish momentum continues.
TP3 – R3 (Final Target)
This is your deep liquidity zone ($$$).
Smart money usually reaches this zone after trend reversal.
⭐ Trade Quality Rating: 9/10
Reasons:
Trendline break + retest = strong confirmation
Clean structure
Proper RR setup
Logical TP placements
SL placed safely
📌 Suggested Trade Plan
Enter only if candle closes below your entry zone again
Book partial profits at TP1
At TP1: move SL to breakeven
Let runner hit TP2 / TP3
XAUUSD–FRIDAY BEFORE PMI: MAINTAINING HEAD AND SHOULDERS PATTERN💛 XAUUSD – FRIDAY BEFORE PMI: MAINTAINING HEAD AND SHOULDERS PATTERN, WAITING TO BREAK RANGE 4132–3998 🎯
🌤 1. Overview
Hello everyone, it's Lana here again 💬
Today is the last Friday of the week, the market is waiting for PMI and preparing to enter a phase with a lot of important data in December.
Meanwhile, BTC has been rising faster than XAU in recent weeks, indicating that speculative money is leaning towards crypto, while gold is temporarily moving sideways accumulating.
The US Department of Labor will release the November employment report on December 16, which is 6 days after the December Fed meeting. In other words, the Fed is in a "blackout" state regarding labor data for nearly another month – this forces the market to price in advance, making gold's volatility range wide but lacking a clear trend.
💹 2. Technical Analysis – Range & Head and Shoulders Pattern
On the H3/H4 frame, gold is fluctuating within the large range of 4132 – 3998.
The price wave is gradually narrowing towards the end of the triangle, represented by:
Lower highs,
Higher lows,
→ When one of the two boundaries is broken, a new trend is likely to explode in the direction of the breakout.
The inverse Head – Shoulders – Head pattern has not been broken:
Left shoulder – Head – Right shoulder are all above the rising trendline.
For the final wave of the pattern to follow the rhythm, the price needs to confirm surpassing 4109:
When closing a candle above 4109, the short-term uptrend is confirmed,
At that point, gold can aim for higher liquidity areas such as 4132 → 4145 → 4200.
Conversely, if gold breaks 3998, this will be both:
breaking the range bottom,
and negating the Head and Shoulders pattern,
→ opening the possibility of a deeper decline to the 3960–3920 area.
🎯 3. Reference Trading Scenarios
💖 BUY Scenario – following the pattern & range bottom support
1️⃣ Buy at support 3998–4000
Entry: 3998–4000
SL: below 3990 (depending on risk management)
TP: 4025 → 4040 → 4078
2️⃣ Buy when confirmed above 4109
Condition: Price closes a candle above 4109, confirming the Head and Shoulders pattern is maintained.
Entry: around 4100–4105
SL: 4090
TP: 4132 → 4145 → 4200
💢 SELL Scenario – trading the upper boundary of the range
Sell: 4130–4132
SL: 4138
TP: 4110 → 4095 → 4070 → 4045
Selling should only be considered as scalping against resistance within the range, not the main trend if the Head and Shoulders pattern is still valid.
⚠️ 4. Notes & Risk Management
Range 4132–3998 is still controlling the market:
Above 4109 → prioritize Buy according to the short-term uptrend.
Below 3998 → consider shifting bias to Sell following the breakout.
PMI, Fed expectations, and upcoming employment data may trigger unexpected volatility, therefore:
🌷Gold is at the intersection of technical patterns and macro stories 💛
Be patient and wait for reactions at 3998 and 4109, as these are the two key points that determine whether we enter a new upward wave or a deeper decline.
💛 Like – 💬 Comment – 🔔 Follow LanaM2 to follow gold with me every day ✨
XAU/USD: Gold Adjusts, Awaiting Fibo 4,092 Confirmation📊 Market Structure
Gold is moving in the ABC–D–E adjustment pattern after a strong decline from the peak. Current structure:
Wave (C) peaks at the 4,128 – 4,130 USD region and strong selling pressure appears.
The price then creates a temporary bottom (D) but does not touch the Demand Zone at 4,007 USD, indicating the BUY side still has strength.
Currently, the price is in a small upward adjustment phase to form wave (E).
Key points:
The major trend still leans towards an increase as long as the bottom at 4,007 USD is not broken.
The BUY side is looking for a complete structure to continue pushing up to the FVG region.
💎 Key Technical Zones
1. Fibo Retracement Zone — 4,092 USD
Confluence region of:
Fibo 0.5 – 0.618
Adjustment structure (small wave)
→ Suitable for light SELL scalp, according to candle reaction signals.
2. FVG Zone — 4,128 – 4,151 USD
This is a large FVG region, coinciding with the market's "loss cost."
If the price pushes up as expected in wave (E), this is the main SELL region of the day.
3. Supply Zone — 4,207 – 4,210 USD
Extremely strong region, if the price breaks the FVG, it will move to this region.
This is the extended target for the BUY side if the market rises strongly.
4. Demand Zone — 4,007 – 4,020 USD
The strongest liquidity bottom region of the session.
If the price breaks 4,092 and does not maintain structure, gold will retest this region before a major increase.
🎯 Trading Plan – According to the current chart
1️⃣ SELL Scalp – Main scenario
Wait for the price to retrace to the Fibo 4,092 USD region and observe the reaction:
Entry: 4,092
SL: 4,105
TP1: 4,075
TP2: 4,060
TP3: 4,030 (lower FVG)
→ This is a short-term scalp order, suitable for the current weak market.
2️⃣ SELL Setup – FVG Zone
If the price breaks 4,092 and runs up to FVG:
Entry: 4,126 – 4,151
SL: 4,160
TP1: 4,092
TP2: 4,060
TP3: 4,030
→ This is the best SELL region of the day.
3️⃣ BUY Setup – Demand Zone
Only activate if the market drops deeply:
Entry: 4,020 – 4,007
SL: 3,995
TP1: 4,060
TP2: 4,092
TP3: 4,128 – 4,151
→ Buy according to the major trend when the price reaches the liquidity bottom region.
🧠 Vincent’s View
The current market is in a controlled adjustment phase.
Priority:
✔ SELL scalp at 4,092
✔ Beautiful SELL at 4,126–4,151
✔ BUY only activates when reaching 4,020–4,007
The major trend is still waiting to complete the wave pattern to push up to the Supply Zone 4,207 USD.
XAUUSD 15M | MSS Break + FVG + OB + Fibonacci Retracement (FRL)
XAUUSD – 15M ICT/SMC Analysis
Price grabbed internal liquidity ($) and created a clean MSS (Market Structure Shift).
After the shift, price retraced into the discount zone, aligning perfectly with key SMC levels:
🔹 FVG – Fair Value Gap
Price filled imbalance and respected the gap.
🔹 OB – Bullish Order Block
Strong reaction from the order block confirms smart money involvement.
🔹 FRL – Fibonacci Retracement Level
FRL represents the 38.2%–50% Fibonacci retracement, the ideal ICT pullback zone after MSS.
This is where high-probability buy setups form.
XAUUSD – Battle Zones of the Day🌐 MARKET CONTEXT
Gold enters today’s session after a period of compressed volatility, where price tapped both buy-side and sell-side liquidity several times without forming a decisive trend. On the M30 chart, the intraday structure remains bearish, with price consistently rejecting premium levels and forming lower highs.
Recent Catalysts:
USD holds mild strength following a slightly hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve
Market is awaiting mid-week economic releases → leading to a cautious sentiment
Risk appetite remains neutral with no strong safe-haven flows
Session Expectations:
London Session: Likely to generate early liquidity sweeps towards premium zones
New York Session: Higher probability of seeing genuine directional expansion
Bias: Bearish intraday unless price reaches discount zones and forms a CHoCH
Price is currently trading within mid-range levels, making the extreme liquidity zones the safest points for execution.
📉 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (SMC + LIQUIDITY STRUCTURE)
Market Structure
M30 structure: Lower Highs → Lower Lows
Equilibrium zone: 4075–4085
Inducement layers accumulating above 4147 and 4070
Liquidity
BSL: Above 4147 & 4070
SSL: Below 4033 and the deeper pocket at 3993
Market forming engineered liquidity wicks on both sides
Imbalance Zones
Bearish FVG: 4147–4148 → strong scalp sell zone
Minor imbalance: 4070–4071
Discount imbalances: 4033 and 3993 support buy setups
🔑 KEY PRICE ZONES (Clear & Attractive Explanations)
4148–4147 → Premium Liquidity Trap – Ideal Scalp Sell
A premium zone combining an unmitigated bearish order block and BSL inducement.
This area often triggers breakout buyers before institutions reverse the move.
4071–4070 → Secondary Premium Liquidity – Fast Rejection Zone
A small liquidity pool above equilibrium designed to sweep early highs before price turns bearish again.
4035–4033 → Discount Reaction Zone – Scalping Demand
A micro order block aligned with a cluster of sell-side liquidity.
Provides clean, low-drawdown intraday rebounds.
3995–3993 → Deep Discount Liquidity Pool – High-Value Reversal Zone
A major liquidity pocket aligned with higher-timeframe discounts.
If price reaches here, a strong reversal is highly probable.
⚙️ TRADE SETUPS (SMC-Driven, High Precision)
✔️ SELL SETUP 1 – Premium Scalp
Entry: 4148–4147
Stop-loss: 4126
Targets: 4135 → 4120 → 4085
Logic: BSL sweep + FVG fill leading to strong bearish rejection.
✔️ SELL SETUP 2 – Mid-Range Liquidity Sweep
Entry: 4071–4070
Stop-loss: 4077
Targets: 4058 → 4043 → 4033
Logic: Sweep of mini BSL followed by downward displacement.
✔️ BUY SETUP 1 – Intraday Rebound
Entry: 4035–4033
Stop-loss: 4027
Targets: 4048 → 4070
Logic: SSL sweep with potential for a micro CHoCH → clean bounce setup.
✔️ BUY SETUP 2 – Deep Discount Reversal
Entry: 3995–3993
Stop-loss: 3987
Targets: 4010 → 4040 → 4070
Logic: Strong higher-timeframe discount zone → excellent reversal potential.
🧠 NOTES / SESSION PLAN
Avoid trading in mid-range areas — only execute at the extreme liquidity zones
Expect fake movements during London open
New York session likely provides the main trend direction
Wait for M5/M15 confirmation signals (CHoCH + BOS)
Avoid buying around premium levels to stay clear of liquidity traps
🏁 CONCLUSION
XAUUSD continues to hold a bearish intraday structure, favouring premium-zone sell opportunities at 4147 and 4070.
Discount-zone levels at 4033 and 3993 remain high-probability areas for intraday bounces or deeper reversals.
Trade only at liquidity extremes.
Be patient.
Let the market form the trap — and then strike with precision.
XAUUSD – Bearish Retracement Into Supply Zones With Potential Sh1. Overall Context
The market recently had a strong bearish leg after rejecting the upper resistance zone (labelled HIGH PROB POI).
Price is currently retracing upward into a series of supply zones, indicating a potential area for continuation shorts.
2. Key Zones
High Probability POI (Supply)
This is the upper beige zone.
Previously caused a strong sell-off → confirms strong institutional presence.
If price pushes this high again, it may offer the most reliable reversal area.
Extreme POI
The central horizontal zone marked “EXTREME POI”.
Current price is tapping into it.
Market may react here if sellers decide to re-enter early.
3. Internal Structure
A series of labeled SSS (Sell-Side Sweeps) indicate liquidity grabs beneath short-term lows.
After sweeping these lows, price retraced upwards, likely moving toward premium territory to fill sell orders.
The 80% level marked on the chart seems to be your optimal entry zone within the inefficiency/imbalance.
4. Entry Idea
Your marked entry level 4080 sits inside the grey supply block.
This aligns with:
Prior breakdown zones
Fresh supply
Retracement to premium pricing
Liquidity sweep structure
This creates a high-probability short setup, assuming the trend continues downward.
5. Expectation
If price respects the first supply zone (grey box), downside continuation should follow.
XAU/USD: Gold in Downtrend, Waiting for Demand Surge⏰ Timeframe: 30m
📅 Update: 11/20/2025
🔍 Market Context
After the technical rebound at the beginning of the week, gold returns to adjust within the descending channel pattern, indicating that short-term upward momentum is temporarily weakening.
The current structure reflects a rebalancing state after the price was rejected at the 4,127 USD supply zone – coinciding with the 30-minute frame Supply Zone.
However, the Demand Zone below still plays an important role in maintaining the medium-term upward structure.
📊 Technical Structure
Supply Zone (4,127 USD): main resistance area, confluence with the nearest peak – where the price was strongly rejected during the Asian session.
OB Bearish (4,106 USD): short-term supply area, highly likely to be retested after completing the adjustment phase.
Demand Zone (4,013 USD): main support area in the descending channel, also the confluence point between the channel boundary and the lower liquidity zone.
Liquidity Sweep: signal indicating that lower liquidity has been absorbed, opening up the possibility of forming a higher low.
🎯 Market Outlook
High probability scenario:
1️⃣ Price continues to fluctuate within the descending channel, retesting the 4,013 USD Demand Zone.
2️⃣ If a clear price reaction occurs, the market is likely to break the channel, opening up a technical rebound to OB Bearish 4,106 USD or Supply Zone 4,127 USD.
3️⃣ Losing the 4,013 USD area will temporarily invalidate the rebound structure, bringing the price back to a lower balance area around 3,990 USD.
🧠 Analyst’s View
Gold is in a corrective pullback phase – where the market needs to regenerate liquidity before forming a new expansion wave.
A reasonable scenario is sweep – retest – expansion: sweep lower liquidity, retest the supply area, then determine the main trend for the end of the week.
Buyers still have a slight advantage as long as the Demand Zone is maintained.
🛡️ Risk Note
This is a phase of market liquidity accumulation, fluctuations may be erratic.
LiamTrading – XAUUSD H1 | A bearish structure has formed...LiamTrading – XAUUSD H1 | A bearish structure has formed, waiting for confirmation during the European session
Overall, gold is in a corrective downtrend after the previous bullish move. On the H1 timeframe, a clear Dow bearish structure (lower highs, lower lows) has formed. However, the support zone around 4,030 and the lower Fibonacci cluster are still potential areas where buying pressure may appear. Today’s European session will be crucial to confirm whether price continues to drop deeper or bounces back, aligning with the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern developing on H4.
Macro – Short Fundamental Outlook
The minutes from the Fed’s October meeting revealed a strong internal division:
One group opposed rate cuts and wanted to maintain current levels.
The other group supported cutting rates and even suggested further reductions in December.
This lack of consensus shows high uncertainty in monetary policy, encouraging defensive flows to continue favouring gold. In the long run, gold only surges when confidence in the financial system weakens — a gold price peak is not a sign of prosperity but a warning signal.
Technical Analysis – H1 (trendline, Fibonacci, liquidity)
Price is trading below the short-term descending trendline, confirming that the bearish phase remains active.
The 4,082–4,090 zone is an important liquidity zone — repeatedly tested and now acting as near-term resistance.
The 4,029–4,031 cluster is a key support area:
Overlaps with technical support + Fibonacci retracement.
Beginning of the large FVG that extends down to 3,985 (Fibo 1.618 + psychological support).
Above current price, the 4,129–4,130 zone is strong resistance. If price breaks and holds above this area, the bearish Dow structure will weaken significantly.
Suggested Trading Scenarios
BUY Scenario – Buying at Support / Fibonacci
Logic: Price holds above the support–Fibonacci zone, showing bottom-fishing demand.
Entry BUY: 4,029–4,031
SL: 4,022
TP: 4,040 → 4,065 → 4,090 → 4,120
Only consider buying if price shows strong reaction at 4,029–4,031 (long wick rejection or clear reversal candle on M15–H1).
Cancel this BUY plan if H1 closes below 4,022.
SELL Scenario – Following the current bearish structure (preferred if trendline remains intact)
Logic: Price retraces to resistance + descending trendline and gets rejected.
Entry SELL: 4,098–4,100
SL: 4,105
TP: 4,088 → 4,070 → 4,035 → 4,000–3,985
Only sell if price touches 4,098–4,100 with clear rejection (bearish pin bar/engulfing).
If H1 closes above 4,105 and breaks the trendline strongly, stop all sell setups and reassess.
Key Levels for Scalping
4,082 – 4,060 – 3,985 – 4,129
These levels can be used for quick intraday trades, but reduce position size and take profit fast.
Important Notes
If price closes firmly above the descending trendline and holds above 4,090–4,100, bias will gradually shift toward BUY setups, as an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern is forming on H4.
If the 4,029–4,022 support breaks decisively, gold is likely to drop toward the FVG and Fibonacci 1.618 zone around 3,985.
What scenario are you leaning toward for gold today — a pullback for another sell, or holding the bottom for a rebound? Leave your view in the comments and follow LiamTrading for daily XAUUSD updates on TradingView.
OVERVIEW MARKET CHART M30 11/201. Current Context
Gold is trading around 4,071, sitting right above the 4,068–4,071 intraday support zone.
Price recently tapped the descending trendline and got rejected, showing short-term selling pressure.
However, the broader structure still remains in a wide sideways range, not a strong downtrend yet.
Stronger demand zones sit lower at 4,041 and 4,009.
⸻
2. Price Action at 4,071
Currently gold is:
• Retesting 4,068–4,071 support
• Showing lower wicks → light buying pressure
• Still trading below M30/H1 downtrend line
This suggests the probability of sideways movement – accumulation – or a small bullish retest is high.
📌 If 4,068 breaks → price may head to 4,056 and then 4,041
📌 If 4,071 holds → price may bounce toward 4,077–4,080, possibly 4,085
⸻
3. Conclusion (Real-Time)
👉 No BUY yet – wait for confirmation at 4,071
👉 No SELL yet – only sell if price closes below 4,068
👉 Low volatility – prioritize safety
XAU/USD – Inverse H&S Forming, Gold Eyes Bullish Reversal🔍 Market Context
Early today, Gold dropped nearly 70 points, but immediately rebounded strongly from 4040, signaling aggressive BUY interest and a clear rejection of downside continuation.
On the H2 chart, XAU/USD is shaping a clean Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern — a classic reversal structure that often precedes a strong bullish expansion.
The macro layer for today is packed with high-impact catalysts:
📌 Key Data & Events – 20 Nov
Speech by U.S. President Donald Trump
Barkin (2027 FOMC voter) speaks on economic outlook
Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting Minutes
Williams (permanent FOMC voter) speech
U.S. Unemployment Rate
Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)
Initial Jobless Claims
➡️ A heavy news lineup capable of triggering high volatility and validating (or rejecting) the reversal pattern.
📊 Technical Analysis – MMF View
Gold bounced sharply from BUY ZONE 4044–4046 with strong volume.
The market structure is creating a complete Inverse H&S formation.
The Neckline Zone 4101–4111 is the key breakout level — clearing this zone opens the door for a full bullish reversal.
Trendline compression + liquidity sweeps show buyers gaining control.
Strategy for today: BUY bias. SELL only for quick scalps.
🎯 MMF Daily Trading Plan
BUY (Priority Setup – Swing / Intraday)
Buy 4046–4048
SL: 4039
TP: 4060 → 4085 → 4100 → 4125
✔️ BUY aligns with the reversal pattern + fresh liquidity shift.
SELL (Scalping Only)
Sell 4146–4148
SL: 4154
TP: 4132 → 4120 → 4110
✔️ SELL only if price taps liquidity at upper supply and rejects clearly.
⚠️ Key Levels to Watch
4101 – 4111 – 4142 → liquidity clusters + breakout confirmation
4029 → major support in case volatility spikes from news
🧠 MMFLOW TRADING Outlook
If Gold holds its corrective pullback and breaks above the Neckline (4101–4111), we may see a strong continuation toward:
4146 → 4187 → 4210+
The Inverse H&S on H2 is a powerful bullish setup — smart positioning favors building long exposure and holding into high-impact events.
New Traders’ Mistakes That They Should Avoid1. Trading Without a Proper Plan
One of the biggest and most common mistakes is trading without a plan. Many beginners jump into the market based on tips, social media signals, or impulses. They take trades without having clear entry criteria, stop-loss levels, or profit targets. Trading without a strategy is like driving without direction—you may reach somewhere, but not where you intended.
A good trading plan should include:
Market selection (stocks, forex, commodities, crypto, etc.)
Timeframe you want to trade
Entry and exit conditions
Risk management rules
Position sizing
Maximum daily or weekly loss limit
A plan provides structure and minimizes emotional decisions.
2. Ignoring Risk Management
Risk management is the backbone of successful trading, yet beginners often overlook it. Many new traders risk too much on a single trade or avoid using stop-loss orders because they are “sure” the price will move in their favor.
Typical risk-management mistakes include:
Risking more than 2% of account capital per trade
Not placing a stop-loss
Moving the stop-loss further away to avoid exiting
Using high leverage without understanding it
Effective risk management ensures that a few losing trades don’t destroy your entire account. Professionals understand that preservation of capital is more important than chasing big profits.
3. Overtrading and Revenge Trading
New traders often feel pressured to be in the market constantly. Overtrading happens when traders take too many trades, even when there is no clear setup. This usually leads to emotional decisions and unnecessary losses.
Another related mistake is revenge trading, where traders try to quickly recover losses by placing impulsive trades. This behavior results in even bigger losses.
To avoid this, trade only when your setup appears. Quality beats quantity.
4. Letting Emotions Drive Decisions
Trading is a psychological game. Fear, greed, hope, and frustration are powerful emotions that influence new traders. Examples include:
Greed leading to holding positions too long
Fear preventing you from entering a good setup
Hope making you avoid closing a losing trade
Frustration causing revenge trades
Emotions cloud judgment and break discipline. Successful traders follow logic, not feelings. Practicing discipline and sticking to your plan is key to long-term success.
5. Using Too Much Leverage
Leverage amplifies gains—but also losses. New traders are often attracted to high leverage because it allows larger positions with small capital. However, even small market movements can wipe out the account.
For example, in forex or futures, 1:50 or 1:100 leverage can be extremely risky if not used properly.
To avoid this mistake:
Start with low leverage
Use proper position sizing
Understand margin requirements and liquidation risk
Smart traders treat leverage like a sharp tool—useful, but dangerous if mishandled.
6. Not Keeping a Trading Journal
Most beginners take trades and move on without analyzing what went right or wrong. Without a trading journal, you cannot identify patterns in your behavior or strategy.
A trading journal should record:
Date and time of entry
Chart screenshot
Entry/exit price
Stop-loss and target
Result of the trade
Emotions and reasoning behind the trade
This habit helps improve discipline and refine your system.
7. Following Tips, Noise, and Social Media Signals
Many new traders rely on tips from friends, influencers, Telegram groups, or YouTube videos. The problem is that most of these sources do not explain the logic behind the trade or the risk involved. Acting on tips without understanding the market leads to blind trading and quick losses.
Instead:
Learn technical and fundamental analysis
Understand the reason behind every trade
Follow a tested strategy, not random opinions
Smart traders trust data, not noise.
8. Unrealistic Expectations of Fast Wealth
The biggest psychological trap for new traders is the belief that trading will make them rich quickly. This mindset pushes traders to take oversized risks, leading to frequent blow-ups.
Successful trading requires:
Years of learning
Discipline and emotional control
Proper risk management
Realistic expectations
Think long-term and focus on consistency rather than big, quick profits.
9. Not Understanding Market Conditions
Markets don’t behave the same every day. Sometimes they trend strongly; other times they move sideways or show high volatility. New traders often use the same strategy in all market conditions, leading to losses.
Understanding market phases helps you adapt your strategy. For example:
Trending markets favor breakout or trend-following strategies
Sideways markets favor range trading or mean reversion
High volatility requires wider stop-loss and smaller positions
Adapting to market conditions drastically improves performance.
10. Lack of Patience
Patience is a superpower in trading. New traders often:
Enter too early
Exit too early
Fail to wait for confirmation
Want every trade to be profitable instantly
Markets reward patience and punish impulsiveness. Waiting for the perfect setup improves win rates and reduces unnecessary losses.
11. Not Practicing on Demo/Backtesting
Many beginners jump straight into live trading without testing their strategy. This is like flying a plane without training. Practicing on a demo account helps you understand:
Market movements
Platform functions
Strategy performance
Emotional reactions
Backtesting on historical data helps validate your strategy’s reliability.
12. Ignoring News and Economic Events
Major economic events—like interest rate decisions, CPI data, jobs reports—can cause sharp market movements. Beginners often get trapped when they trade unknowingly during high-impact events.
Always check the economic calendar before entering a trade.
Conclusion
New traders often fail not because markets are impossible, but because they repeat common, avoidable mistakes. Success in trading comes from discipline, risk management, continuous learning, and emotional control. By avoiding the mistakes listed above and building a strong foundation, new traders can gradually develop the skills required to navigate the financial markets confidently.
XAUUSD – CLEAR INVERSE HEAD & SHOULDERS FORMATION, CONTINUE ...💛 XAUUSD – CLEAR INVERSE HEAD & SHOULDERS FORMATION, CONTINUE TO PRIORITISE BUY SETUPS 🎯
🌤 1. Overview – Today’s Market Picture
Hello everyone, Lana here again 💬
During the Asian session this morning, gold completed the right shoulder of a very clear Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern on the H3/H4 timeframe. Those who bought following the previous setup are now in a favourable position, and in my view, this is still a good time to hold Buy positions and prepare for additional entries once the market confirms the trend.
On the macro side, according to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25bp in December has dropped to around 30–33%, while the likelihood of keeping rates unchanged remains dominant.
This means the USD is not weak enough to push gold sharply higher, but also not strong enough to suppress it—creating a volatile range-bound environment, which is ideal for technical-pattern trading.
💹 2. Technical Analysis – Inverse Head & Shoulders & Market Structure
The Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern has formed quite cleanly:
Left shoulder → Head → Right shoulder, all supported by the long-term ascending trendline.
The demand zone around 4040–4050 is acting as a liquidity box supporting the entire structure.
The neckline is currently around 4089–4090:
Once price breaks above and closes above 4089, we can consider a confirmed bullish trend.
After the breakout, gold may extend toward 4145 → 4200, which aligns with higher liquidity zones + upper FVGs.
Zone 4130–4132:
A major liquidity cluster—where many take-profit orders & short-term sell orders may appear.
If this zone is broken decisively, price may accelerate quickly toward 4200.
Zone 4040:
This is both the bottom of the pattern and a key support.
The bullish structure fails if gold closes below 4040 on H4, which would invalidate the Inverse H&S pattern.
Overall, price is currently compressing right below the neckline, and just one strong breakout could trigger the next bullish wave.
🎯 3. Reference Trading Plan (For Study Purposes Only)
💖 Primary BUY Scenario – Following the Pattern
1️⃣ Buy on retracement to support
Entry: 4060–4063
SL: 4055
TP: 4088 → 4108 → 4130 → 4143 → 4200
2️⃣ Buy the neckline breakout
Condition: Price breaks the descending trendline & neckline, and closes above 4089.
Entry: around 4089–4092
SL: 4080
TP: 4132 → 4145 → 4200
💢 Notes on SELL Setups
Selling now is counter-trend against the pattern and not the priority.
Consider only short-term sells if:
Price reacts strongly at 4132–4145, and
Clear bearish signals appear on M15–M30 (pin bar, bearish engulfing, rising sell volume).
⚠️ 4. Fundamental Factors to Watch
High probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged → market may stay flat before data releases, then spike in volatility.
Gold remains sensitive to data: employment, inflation, and speeches from Fed officials.
🌷 In summary
The Inverse Head & Shoulders on XAUUSD supports the bullish scenario as long as price stays above 4040 💛
Strategy:
Prioritise Buy setups: first at 4060–4063, then on the breakout above 4089.
Watch the 4132–4145 zone closely—if broken, the move toward 4200 becomes highly probable.
If you found this analysis helpful, don’t forget to 💛 Like – 💬 Comment – 🔔 Follow LanaM2 for daily gold updates!
Gold Recovers, Targeting FVG & Liquidity Zone 4.20x📊 Market Structure
Gold has completed a deep decline from the 4,20x zone and continuously created bearish BoS, indicating sellers controlled the period from 14–18/11.
However, a significant sign appeared when:
Price created an Order Block at 4,008 USD
Then surged to create a Change of Character (ChoCH) on the H1 timeframe
The market maintained higher lows on the intraday structure
This indicates that selling momentum has weakened, and buyers are starting to rebuild a short-term bullish structure.
Currently, the price is approaching the Supply & Resistance zone at 4,086 USD – the zone confirming the strength of the BUY side.
If the price decisively breaks this zone, the next targets are clear:
FVG 4,150 USD
Liquidity Zone 4,202 USD – where old peak liquidity is concentrated
💎 Key Technical Zones
• Order Block: 4,000 – 4,009 USD → the main reversal zone of the current rally
• Supply & Resistance: 4,078 – 4,086 USD → trend confirmation point
• FVG Zone: 4,132 – 4,150 USD → zone where a corrective reaction may occur
• Liquidity Zone $$$: 4,195 – 4,205 USD → target of large capital flows
🎯 Trading Plan – Prioritize BUY according to structure
1️⃣ BUY Setup – Trend Following
Activated when price breaks and retests the 4,086 USD zone:
Entry: 4,086 – 4,090
SL: 4,058
TP1: 4,132
TP2: 4,150
TP3: 4,202
→ This is the highest probability setup: a new uptrend is forming + retesting the invalidated supply zone.
2️⃣ BUY Setup 2 – Deep Retracement (safer)
If the price is rejected at 4,086 and returns to test the lower zone:
Entry: 4,050 – 4,058 (Premium Zone on chart)
SL: 4,028
TP: 4,086 → 4,132 → 4,150
→ This setup offers a higher R:R, suitable for patient traders.
3️⃣ SELL Scalp – For intraday only
If the price hits FVG 4,150 and shows strong rejection signals:
Entry: 4,148–4,150
SL: 4,160
TP: 4,130 → 4,100
→ Not for swing traders. This is merely a technical reaction at the FVG zone.
🧠 Vincent’s View
The main trend of the day leans towards recovery – expanding towards upper liquidity.
As long as the price remains above 4,008 USD, the BUY side will continue to lead the market.
“Follow the structure, follow the liquidity — the market never lies.” ⚜️
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD | 19/11/2025
1. Momentum
• D1:
Daily momentum has started to reverse. If today’s D1 candle closes bullish, the reversal will be confirmed, and we can expect an upward move in the coming days.
• H4:
H4 momentum has already reversed from the oversold zone. This suggests price may either pull back slightly or move sideways in the short term.
• H1:
H1 momentum is turning upward, indicating that price may produce a short-term rise or continue moving sideways with a mild bullish bias.
________________________________________
2. Wave Structure
• D1 Structure:
Price is currently inside the purple Y wave. After the recent decline and with momentum preparing to reverse, a bullish correction is likely.
This upcoming move could be:
• Wave 2 of the larger 5-wave purple structure, or
• A new bullish trend if price breaks the previous high when D1 momentum reaches the overbought zone.
• H4 Structure:
A 5-wave green structure has completed. Therefore, a corrective move is expected — either:
• A 3-wave ABC correction for wave 2, or
• A new impulsive 5-wave structure if this marks the beginning of a new uptrend.
If price rises slowly with overlapping waves, we lean toward a 3-wave correction.
If price rises decisively with minimal overlap, we lean toward an impulsive 5-wave structure.
• H1 Structure:
The 5-wave green pattern is clear. The current upward correction shows strong wave overlap — a sign of an ABC corrective move.
This scenario is reinforced if price continues to move slowly and sideways with mild upward bias.
Price is now inside a large liquidity zone at 4046 – 4096.
Sideways movement is expected here; if H1 candles compress tightly, avoid long-term trades and focus on short take-profit exits.
________________________________________
3. ABC Correction Target
I continue to expect the corrective ABC wave to complete at 4145, which is our ideal sell zone.
If ABC finishes at 4145 and price reverses strongly:
• We will likely enter wave 3 of the purple Y wave
• This decline will be fast, sharp, and decisive
• Once wave 3 is confirmed, we can hold sell positions longer for extended profits
________________________________________
4. Trading Plan
🔻 Sell Zone: 4145 – 4147
🛑 Stop Loss: 4165
🎯 Take Profit Targets:
• TP1: 4096
• TP2: 3897
• TP3: 3746
GOLD / XAUUSD - Corrective Rise to take it beyond 4100?TF: 15 minutes
CMP: 4031
Earlier in the day I have posted my view on Silver and now I am posting my thoughts on Gold.
Observation:
Price is taking support at the trendline rising from 28th Oct lows of 3886.
The corrective decline from the highs at 4245 seems to have ended as per the wave counts
View:
Expecting the price to move higher (in corrective rise) and possibly test the 50-60% fib levels of the entire fall from 4245 and then resume to downtrend to complete the final leg of the correction (break and move below 3886 thereafter)
Stoploss for this view is 3995
Chart on 2 hour TF with counts for a broader perspective is copied below. Gold is not out of the woods yet..
Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI registered Analyst and this is not a trading advise. Views are personal and for educational purpose only. Please consult your Financial Advisor for any investment decisions. Please consider my views only to get a different perspective (FOR or AGAINST your views). Please don't trade FNO based on my views. If you like my analysis and learnt something from it, please give a BOOST. Feel free to express your thoughts and questions in the comments section.
Banking Sector Leadership in the Trading Market1. Why Banking Sector Holds Leadership in the Market
1.1 Highest Weightage in Index
The Nifty 50 allocates the largest share — around 33–38% — to financials, mainly banks.
Bank Nifty itself is a major index, made up of leading private and public banks.
When banks move, the entire index moves, causing large-scale shifts in sentiment.
Because of this high weightage, even a small percentage change in heavyweights like HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, SBI, Kotak, or Axis Bank heavily influences Nifty’s direction.
1.2 Heart of the Economy
Banks are essential to every major economic activity:
Loans to corporates
Retail credit (housing, auto, personal loans)
Government bond investments
Infrastructure project financing
MSME support
If the banking sector is healthy, it signals that the economy is healthy — which boosts market confidence.
1.3 Institutional Ownership & Liquidity
Foreign investors (FIIs) and domestic institutions (DIIs) prefer banking stocks because:
They offer high liquidity
Business models are predictable
Regulated by the RBI
They move directly with interest rate cycles
This heavy ownership ensures that banking stocks are actively traded, making them natural leaders.
2. How Banking Sector Influences Market Sentiment
2.1 Reacts Fast to Macro Events
The banking sector responds immediately to:
RBI interest rate decisions
Inflation data
GDP trends
Liquidity conditions
Global interest rate changes
Whenever an economic event occurs, banking stocks show the first and strongest reaction. Traders watch them closely to judge market direction.
2.2 Credit Growth vs. Market Trend
High credit growth indicates:
Expansion in business activity
Higher consumption demand
Strong financial health
This fuels bullish sentiment across the market.
On the other hand, slowing credit growth reflects:
Weak business confidence
Stress in industries
Tightened liquidity
Markets often turn bearish when banks show declining loan growth.
2.3 NPA (Non-Performing Assets) Cycle
Bank NPA trends influence corporate health and market mood:
Falling NPAs = better profitability = bullish sector = bullish market
Rising NPAs = stress in corporates = bearish tone
Thus, traders consider NPA cycles as early indicators of broader market conditions.
3. Why Traders Focus on Bank Nifty as a Lead Indicator
3.1 Bank Nifty Moves Faster and Sharper
Bank Nifty is more volatile than Nifty due to:
Leverage-based business model
High sensitivity to macroeconomic shifts
Higher FII participation
Bigger intraday moves
Because of this, it often leads the market — if Bank Nifty is bullish, Nifty usually follows.
3.2 Option Trader’s Favourite Index
Bank Nifty has:
High liquidity in options
Narrow bid-ask spreads
Better price discovery
Faster momentum
Day traders, scalpers, and positional option traders use Bank Nifty as a sentiment gauge.
3.3 Banking Stocks Form Market Breadth
When major banks like HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, SBI surge together, it signals:
Strong institutional buying
Rising market confidence
Start of a broader upward trend
When they fall together, it often marks:
Weak sentiment
FII selling pressure
Potential index correction
4. Key Drivers of Banking Sector Leadership
4.1 Interest Rate Cycle
The banking sector's performance is strongly tied to interest rates:
Rate hikes increase banks' net interest margin (NIM)
Rate cuts boost loan demand
Stable rates create predictable earnings
Traders use interest rate expectations to forecast banking stock direction.
4.2 Liquidity Environment
Banks thrive when liquidity is high:
Credit expansion happens easily
Market cap of banks rises
Valuations improve
Low liquidity can stress banking stocks, sending negative signals to the overall market.
4.3 Corporate & Retail Loan Mix
Private sector banks with strong retail portfolios (HDFC Bank, Kotak) often lead bullish rallies due to stable earnings.
PSU banks lead when:
Government spending rises
Infrastructure cycle strengthens
Bond yields fall
The leadership shifts based on the credit cycle.
5. How Banking Sector Leadership Affects Other Sectors
5.1 Triggers Rally in Interest-Sensitive Sectors
When banks are bullish, other sectors also pick up:
Real estate
Auto
Infra
Metals
FMCG (due to consumer spending boost)
This creates a broad-based market rally.
5.2 Influences Economic Cyclicals
Banks act as a barometer for:
Capital expenditure cycles
Corporate profit cycles
Manufacturing activity
Consumption levels
Strong banks = strong growth cycle = bullish markets.
5.3 Leads Early Reversals
Before a major rally or correction, banks usually turn first.
In early bull markets → banks break out first
In early bear phases → banks drop sharply before other sectors
This makes the banking sector a predictive indicator.
6. Traders’ Framework for Using Banking Leadership
6.1 Monitor Bank Nifty First
Before trading Nifty or other indices, traders check:
Bank Nifty trend
Price action
Volume profile
Leading stocks strength
Derivatives data
If Bank Nifty is strong, traders prefer bullish trades in the broader market.
6.2 Track Leading Banks
Key stocks to watch:
HDFC Bank
ICICI Bank
Axis Bank
SBI
Kotak Mahindra Bank
IndusInd Bank
These stocks often show early signs of trend continuation or reversal.
6.3 Use Leadership for Confirmation
A market cannot sustain a bullish trend for long without support from banks.
So traders look for:
Breakouts in Bank Nifty
Strong candle formations
Low wicks (showing buying pressure)
Heavy volumes
Positive FII data
These signals confirm strength.
7. Conclusion: Why Banking Sector Remains Market Leader
The banking sector’s leadership is not temporary — it is structural. Banking acts as:
The largest weighted sector in indices
The economic engine of credit and liquidity
The favorite playground for institutions and traders
The macro-sensitive sector that reacts first
The trendsetter for bullish and bearish phases
In simple terms:
If banks rise → the market rises.
If banks fall → the market weakens.
For any trader trying to understand market structure, trend strength, or broader sentiment, analyzing the banking sector — especially Bank Nifty — is essential.
Part 9 Trading Master Class With Experts Best Practices for Safe Option Trading
Start with buying options, not selling.
Use a defined stop-loss and target.
Avoid trading during low liquidity.
Choose ATM/ITM options for better probability.
Follow trend + volume + price action.
Don’t trade based on emotions or rumours.
For selling, always hedge positions.
Keep risk per trade under 1–2% of capital.
GOLD MARKET UPDATE 11/19 – STRUCTURE HAS SHIFTED1. Market Structure
Gold has broken above the H4 downtrend line and completed a successful retest around 4,060–4,070.
The strong push toward 4,100 confirms a transition from bearish → short-term bullish.
Structural Signals:
Buyers are gaining control as price continues forming higher lows
The POC zone 4,072–4,075 has turned into strong support
Intraday structure is leaning clearly toward a bullish recovery
2. Technical Breakdown – H1 & H4
H4 Trend
After the previous strong drop, price is forming a potential bottom around 4,030–4,050
H1 Trend
The short-term bullish trend is confirmed after breaking and retesting the descending trendline
3. Key Levels to Watch
Support Zones
4,072–4,075 → POC – major support maintaining the bullish structure
4,060–4,065 → minor support – quick-reaction area
Resistance Zones
4,108–4,112 → first resistance (H1/H4 confluence)
4,147–4,150 → strong H4 resistance, potential higher target if bullish continuation remains
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves risk, and you should always conduct your own research before making any trading decisions.
Gold Possible scenarioIn 4H TF price has been made 5 ways structure so please very carefully trade, my bias still bullish side, one of the reason is bitcoin, nasdaq and spx are in correction phase so gold and silver for the time being will remain still bullish.
Its my idea not trading advise so plan your trade as per your rules, all the best for all traders.
Thanks
Gold Forms Inverted Head & Shoulders: Reversal Signal!After a short-term corrective decline, the $4,000 level has triggered strong BUY momentum, creating a clear price rebound at the end of yesterday's session. The increase in buying volume indicates that the BUY side is returning to the market after several sessions of being pushed down.
📊 Prominent Technical Structure
On the 2H chart, gold is completing the Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern – one of the strongest bullish reversal patterns.
• Head: liquidity bottom at 4,00x
• Two shoulders: forming symmetrically with good bounce
• Neckline: area 4,101–4,102, currently a key resistance
Price is likely to:
1️⃣ Slightly adjust to the neckline area or BUY ZONE 4,044–4,046
2️⃣ Retest – Accumulate – Confirm breakout
3️⃣ Break out towards 4,146 → 4,187 when the pattern is complete
🎯 Short-term Expectations
Volatility may increase ahead of upcoming economic data, so the reasonable strategy remains:
✅ Prioritize BUY according to the pattern
• Wait for retest of neckline or area 4,044–4,046
• Observe confirmation force (Volume – Momentum – Rejection)
• Target towards 4,146 → 4,187 if the pattern is activated
⚠️ Note
– The reversal trend is only truly confirmed when the price clearly breaks the 4,101–4,102 area.
– Market sentiment currently leans towards recovery, but clear signals are needed before entering large (long-term HOLD) positions.
GOLD H1 – Trump’s Fed Comments Shake Market Sentiment🟡 XAUUSD – Intraday Smart Money Plan | by Ryan_TitanTrader (19/11)
📈 Market Context
Gold is trading in a tight corrective structure as markets react to breaking headlines that Donald Trump is considering removing Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
This news injects uncertainty into Fed policy expectations, causing short-term volatility in USD and positioning gold at a critical decision zone.
• Trump’s comments increase speculation about a potential policy shift, which may temporarily weaken USD sentiment.
• However, gold remains capped below the premium supply zone as institutional flows continue to engineer liquidity sweeps.
• Price is hovering near $4,080 ahead of key Fed-related discussions, keeping both sides of liquidity active.
Institutional order flow suggests controlled accumulation at the discount range while premium regions remain defended by sellers.
🔎 Technical Analysis (1H / SMC Structure)
• Structure: Price is forming a short-term distribution pattern after multiple BOS events from the 4150 breakdown.
• Premium Sell Zone: 4109–4111, aligning with unmitigated supply and internal liquidity pockets.
• Discount Buy Zone: 4009–4007, sitting inside a clean demand block + previous sell-side sweep.
• Liquidity:
→ Buy-side liquidity sits above 4111, where equal-high clusters form.
→ Sell-side liquidity rests between 4007–4000, where earlier long positions were cleared.
🔴 Sell Setup (Premium Reaction Zone)
• Entry: 4109 – 4111
• Stop-Loss: 4119
• Take-Profit:
→ 4055 (minor inefficiency)
→ 4028 (BOS retest)
→ 4009–4007 (discount demand)
📌 Execute only after a liquidity sweep into the zone + bearish CHOCH on M5–M15.
🟢 Buy Setup (Discount Reaction Zone)
• Entry: 4009 – 4007
• Stop-Loss: 4000
• Take-Profit:
→ 4040 (short-term range high)
→ 4075 (inefficiency rebound)
→ 4105/4110 (premium retest)
📌 Valid if price sweeps 4007 and shows bullish displacement.
⚠️ Risk Management Notes
• Expect volatility as traders react to Trump’s comments on Fed leadership.
• Avoid trading in the 4030–4080 chop zone without a clear structural break.
• Reduce position size during impulsive spikes around USD sentiment shifts.
• Trail stops once price clears each liquidity pocket.
📝 Summary
Gold is being influenced heavily by uncertainty around Trump’s remarks about replacing Fed Chair Powell. Liquidity is building at both extremes, offering clean opportunities at the edges of the range.
• Sell Zone: 4109–4111 (premium supply)
• Buy Zone: 4009–4007 (discount accumulation)
Expect a manipulation → reaction → continuation pattern as institutions play both sides of the current structure.
📍 Follow @Ryan_TitanTrader for more Smart Money updates.
🎁 Gifts in BIO for traders who follow daily plans.
