[Gold Technical Analysis | September 12]
Gold prices dipped slightly to 3630 in Asian trading on Friday before rebounding quickly, confirming effective support in the 3630-3633 area. Market sentiment remained generally bullish. Prices accurately tested resistance at 3650 before retreating, indicating a fierce battle between bulls and bears at this key psychological level. The market is currently in a state of convergence and accumulation, with 3650 acting as a dividing line between bulls and bears, a level whose gains and losses will determine the future direction.
Key Level Analysis:
Primary resistance: 3650-3652. A successful breakout would trigger short-term stops and open up upside potential, with subsequent targets targeting 3658-3665.
Daily strength/weakness dividing line: 3640-3645. Stabilizing above this area suggests continued short-term strength, maintaining upward momentum.
Key support: 3630-3633. A break would signal the failure of the current upward push, leading to a period of wide range-bound trading.
Trading Strategy:
Long Strategy: Enter after a pullback to the 3640-3643 area and stabilize, with a stop-loss below 3637 and a target of 3650. A breakout could target 3658.
Short Strategy: We recommend only entering with a small position after the price effectively breaks below 3640, or attempting a short sell attempt upon the first encounter of the strong resistance level of 3658-3660 and the emergence of a clear bearish signal. Ensure quick entry and exit, and maintain strict risk management.
Fundamental Catalysts:
Yesterday's US August CPI report exceeded expectations, but initial jobless claims surged, leaving market expectations for a September Fed rate cut high. A weak dollar and expectations of a rate cut continue to provide underlying support for gold prices. After a technical consolidation, gold prices are expected to rally again, fueled by fundamental momentum.
In summary, the primary strategy for intraday trading remains to buy on dips, with a focus on a breakout above 3650 and the 3640 level.
