Elliott Wave Analysis XAUUSD – 25/11/2025
1. Momentum
D1
D1 momentum has entered the overbought zone and is showing early signs of reversal. This indicates the current bullish leg is weakening. Today or tomorrow, if a strong bearish D1 candle appears, it will likely confirm the reversal.
H4
H4 momentum is also in the overbought zone, with the lines sticking tightly together — a typical sign that a reversal could happen at any moment. Once we see a bearish H4 candle close, we can consider the current high as a potential top.
H1
H1 momentum is currently in the oversold zone and preparing to turn upward. This means price may still show one more short-term bullish correction or move sideways before any meaningful decline.
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2. Wave Structure
D1
Yesterday’s bullish daily candle did not change the D1 wave count. We are still in the Y wave (purple).
However, one critical point needs attention:
• D1 momentum is already overbought.
• When D1 momentum rolls over, what we want to see is:
o Price failing to break the current X-wave high, and
o A strong, sharp decline to complete wave Y.
If price does not decline sharply as expected, the market may shift into a more complex corrective structure — such as a triangle or a larger WXY formation. I will update the count if that scenario develops.
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H4
Yesterday’s bullish move broke above the previous wave (2) high. This invalidates the 5-wave scenario and confirms that the structure is instead forming a 3-wave corrective pattern.
With H4 momentum turning down and D1 momentum already overbought, the current price region is highly likely to be the top of wave 2.
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H1
A clear 3-wave ABC corrective pattern has completed.
Wave C (blue) now reaches the target area around 4158, making this a very attractive region to look for Sell entries.
However, keep in mind:
• H1 momentum is in the oversold zone and preparing to turn upward.
• This suggests price may still push slightly higher or move sideways before H1 reaches the overbought zone.
The best Sell timing will be when H1 and H4 momentum align together in overbought zones.
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3. Key Liquidity Zones
Two important liquidity areas lie ahead:
• 4143
• 4184
If price holds above 4143, the probability of reaching 4184 increases — especially with H1 momentum turning upward.
Because H1 momentum is about to rise, it is difficult to find a precise Sell entry at 4143–4158–4184 without waiting for a clear price reaction.
The safest approach is to wait for bearish confirmation signals at each zone.
For my personal plan:
• First attempt to catch the top with a small position at 4158.
• Second attempt at 4184 if price extends further.
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4. Trade Plan
📌 Sell Zone 1
• 4156 – 4158
• SL: 4168
• TP1: 4123
• TP2: 4081
• TP3: 4020
📌 Sell Zone 2
• 4184 – 4185
• SL: 4205
• TP1: 4123
• TP2: 4081
• TP3: 4020
